The past three months of doing time now finds its place in my life. There was a time, not long ago, when days like this would grate on my nerves. Now I've left it all behind, I'm in a buy-and-hold state of mind.
No joke. I see the closing numbers. It's all good.
State of mind is everything. I like the confidence that comes with accepting market volatility for what it is- the highly predictable yet impossible to time swings in the moods of investors.
ReplyDeleteHey 2nd - I meant to comment on your post with Quincy Jones...I don't know if you knew this but the end of that song featured Pharcyde, a rap group from the early 90's, who's main track on their hit album featured the same riff as the song you posted from Quincy Jones. I used to really like Pharcyde because I always thought their sound was really unique for a rap group...so much for uniqueness...it was a copied riff from Quincy.
ReplyDeleteCP > CYMI - FD: my good friend works there in their finance department. They work with all of the big semi companies and their business model is to loan machines to them and have them pay on a per use (or "pulse") basis. He never divulges too much info for fear of insider info stuff but he did tell me recently that they haven't seen any fall-off in "pulses"...and he uses that info to help him determine his own investing in other companies. He said back in 2008 he saw a huge drop off in pulse activity and that helped him avoid the correction as he moved all of his money into cash in the summer of 08.
There are at least two Zen states I've been privileged to experience.
ReplyDelete(a) The Zen of being in harmony with market rhythm.
(b) And now, the somewhat more difficult Zen of remaining detached from market movements.
Samsung adjusts capital expenditure
ReplyDeletehttp://www.digitimes.com/news/a20110729PR204.html
I betcha the RSI(7) is a tad low tonight...
ReplyDeleteA couple of earnings plays for tomorrow if you're interested:
ReplyDeleteOPEN
WNC
RKT
OPEN is very interesting if you're into risk. they sport a 26% short interest ratio. If they get a CTCT style selloff it could offer a really good intraday trade for us.
WNC is interesting to me...down 50% going into earnings and they reported better sales but worse earnings than expected. They also have a high short interest ratio at 14%. Here is what their CEO said the biz:
"New trailer shipments of 11,400 for the second quarter were just off guidance as customers again found it difficult to quickly adjust their pick-up rates in-line with our significantly increased production levels. However, this is only a timing event and we are increasing our new trailer shipment expectations for full year 2011 to an estimated 46,000 to 48,000 units. With shipments now reaching pre-recession levels, a continued strong backlog of $736 million, and the outlook for further growth in trailer demand, we remain confident on our strategic positioning of the Company to deliver improved margin performance over the cycle and continued diversification of the business."
In case the high-fear break of support with a consequent market reversal happens tomorrow morning while I am asleep, I placed a buy limit order for 3 September $27 puts on VXX at $3 (their bid is at $4.50 now).
ReplyDeleteDavid- Apologies for misreading your earlier post on VXX.
ReplyDeleteI am being silly with September VXX puts, of course, because the correct *guaranteed* play with VXX is to buy *December* puts on VXX, since buy December the contango is guaranteed to bring VXX into low teens regardless of how the market evolves.
ReplyDelete"David- Apologies for misreading your earlier post on VXX."
ReplyDelete2nd, did you think I was BUYING VXX??? I've learned my lesson with it already. :) Last time I bought VXX puts during the Japanese earthquake scare, I tripled them in a month. Since then I decided that I will ALWAYS start scaling into VXX puts when VIX rises above 25, regardless of how gloomy the stock market future looks.
David, what are your numbers for scaling in. I have a stop on my short vxx above 25. If I get stopped out I will roll into puts, but one question do you know what happens when they have to do the eventual reverse split with options?
ReplyDeleteDavid- That's right. I skimmed through the first post too quickly and thought you had SOLD puts on VXX.
ReplyDeleteLook, I honestly believe that around 2020 all of us will be doing well. We all have our own styles and our own risk profiles- which we're free to change at any time. The key to trading is having a combination of intelligence, emotional control, and the ability to balance a series of seemingly contradictory traits/skills- you know what I mean. The ability to embrace risk and control risk simultaneously. Have fun making financial decisions with potentially serious consequences. Act deliberately and impulsively in succession or simultaneously. All that metaphysical crap. We all have it.
Fully-invested traders had a damned good week not that long ago. Now they're getting taken to the cleaners.
ReplyDeleteTraders with high cash balances are now getting theirs- after getting left behind last month.
That's life in the markets.
TOF - OPEN/WNC/RKT - I'll agree, WNC is the most interesting. RKT's loss doesn't tickle my funnybone much.
ReplyDeleteThe algo flipped on SPX to the bear side long term, first time since last year. Target 1023. Stop 1259 so it could flip back easily tomorrow. Both ST and IT are bears with target 1226 and wont flip back to bull till 1265-68 as stops.
ReplyDeleteThe Dow and NAZ have not flipped to bear as yet but are getting close.
RoBear,
ReplyDeleteIn the case of VXX puts, my plan is to scale in with around $1K lots (which is about 0.4% of my portfolio now) for each $2 gain in VIX between 25 and 30. After $30, I'll start scaling in with $2K lots for each $2 gain in VIX. If VIX hits 40, I'll sell my ECU position and will go all-in with December $40 puts on VXX. :)
illini- The 'algo' is just that. For LT holders, it holds little 'meaning.' I have to wonder how many times the algo signaled bull/bear between 1982 and 2000? And how valuable (or destructive) listening to the opinions of a black box would have been to a LT trader?
ReplyDeleteTOF,
ReplyDeleteWNC is one I follow as well. Missed it in the $3's, so haven't been willing to pay up, but it's getting down to a point I may step in. Could see a double from here assuming the economy hangs in.
Jesse, I wonder if semi's still lead the market and personally look to commodities now more in trying to determine overall market direction.
Heck, there are traders out there for whom 2009 was 'noise.' In fact, for someone like Buffett, who likely holds positions opened in the nineties, that's exactly what it was. In 1991, it was a big deal when the DJIA hit 3000. We dropped to 6600 in 2009 and now we're at 12000. It's all relative.
ReplyDeleteGot a couple of friends who didn't sell a share in 2009 and just kept adding to their mutual funds every months and it turned out fine for them. Way less stress as well.
ReplyDeleteThe ones who got burned were actually the ones who got out in the fall of 2008 as they thought they were so smart to miss the downturn, they didn't get back in before it was too late.
Thanks Dave. Actually i find it hard to believe that there is people willing to sell puts on the VXX? I figure for the VXX TO get to 40 we will need to be below 1000 in a hurry.
ReplyDeleteRemember back in June when every one was going on about 6 down weeks in the market, 7 straight days down, etc. and then boom, we made it all back in a week and a half.
ReplyDeleteWe are now at that same low and have had 8 down days and 10% losses, etc.
I think we get some good macro news (the company earnings news has been outstanding) and we are flying again.
Plus we really do have cheap stock valuations to support the market here.
HYC was up today I can find no news. Upgrade maybe. I suggest watch this one. PIR the wicker wonder is on my short list also.
ReplyDeleteExactly, let's stay the course. For the buy-and-hold strategy, that means do nothing. How much simpler can it get?
ReplyDeleteIn any other endeavor, we scoff at people who change plans after a 'small' (let's say the equivalent of a 5-20%) setback. Only in trading is it considered 'understandable' to bail at the lows.
So let's use a trading phrase- plan the trade and trade the plan. If the plan is buy and hold, then trade the plan, Stan.
BB I know you have a bunch of positions can I give you some homework. Could you give your top five small cap 200 to 800 million companies in different sectors. I don't care if you consider there valuations cheap at the moment. Just which companies you think are best of breed small caps across sectors. Everyone else weigh in too. We need a shopping list. Can we do 20 straight days down? If we do 2nd gets the jinx of the year award.
ReplyDeleteThat's where Kass gets into trouble. Let's assume he took a position at 1300. What does he do now?
ReplyDeleteStop out?
Add to it.
No change.
If he stops out, when does he get back in?
No, I think investing in the stock market should be no different than investing in real estate. Take a position. Hold it. In 20-30 years, through ups and downs, you'll do well.
great advice 2nd....no chance buffett gets scared when the market goes down from 1,350 to 1,250. in fact, he probably starts getting greedy.
ReplyDeleteSVM's earnings PR from last quarter:
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/Silver-Wheaton-Earnings-wscheats-3766186088.html?x=0&.v=1
2nd, this is of course in hindsight, but I still think legging in on some sort of criteria is the best approach.
ReplyDeleteFor instance, my criteria for SVM involves the gap fill. I'll be surprised if it doesn't happen b/c I see no other gaps in the chart aside from this one.
My bad, those earnings posted previously were SWC's by mistake, here's the correct one:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Silvercorp-Reports-Record-iw-2767966283.html?x=0&.v=1
S&P - I do see an unfilled gap down right through the 20SMA from July 27th, I like gaps down. ;)
ReplyDeleteHow wrong is this? I bought the equivalent of $100K worth of SPY based on this take..."We'll, I sit here and watch this crap all the time, I should do something, right?"
ReplyDeleteAnd $TRIN was buried as deep as I've seen it in ages.
If I'm wrong, it's 'Dang, your dead time'.
ReplyDeleteWhatever you do, don't let them gore your ox:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.caseyresearch.com/editorial.php?page=articles/five-things-you-need-know-about-economy&ppref=SLG231ED0811A
Five Things You Need to Know About the Economy
ReplyDeleteCP, really enjoyed this article thanks for posting.
CP, somewhat overlapping your article.
ReplyDeleteThe drag of structural unemployment: Since companies couldn't control the costs of raw materials, they have opted to improve productivity and cut costs primarily by reducing jobs or by making their current workforce work longer and harder. As economic growth decelerates, the drag of elevated and structural unemployment will serve as a constant headwind ahead.
The drag of government spending cuts: Corporate profits are also up in part because of the ballooning deficit, as the government has overspent. So it follows that the necessary spending cuts (aimed at reducing the size of the deficit) will adversely impact prospective economic growth and, in turn, corporate sales and profits.
The drag of future rate rises: Finally, corporate profit growth has been spurred on and elevated by the most aggressive monetary policy moves in history (quantitative easing and zero interest rate policy). The generational lows in interest rates have enabled corporations to roll over debt cheaply, have allowed consumers to borrow (on installment and mortgage debt) at unprecedented low interest rates and have kept government borrowing costs low relative to the size of a ballooning deficit. While all three borrowers have become addicted to low rates, it is not likely a permanent condition. Though it is clear that rates will be pegged low for at least the next year, it is unreasonable to expect interest rates to be low forever. The withdrawal from artificially low interest rates could be growth- and profit-deflating painful in the fullness of time.
http://www.thestreet.com/story/11204685/1/kass-a-triple-threat-to-the-markets.html
Sounds to me like Birinyi is having his first real test here....
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-03/birinyi-advises-holding-stocks-with-scotch-after-s-p-500-erases-2011-gains.html
The latest check I borrowed from a credit card for $6500 has finally cleared in my bank, and so I have just made an immediate transfer to ETrade and placed a buy limit order for 9000 shares of ECUXF at $0.75 -- I hope that order gets triggered tomorrow!
ReplyDeleteDamn! Silver has just spiked, up to $41.30 already. I probably won't be able to buy ECUXF tomorrow after all...
ReplyDeleteOK, I am raising my buy limit to $0.76...
ReplyDeleteRoBear,
ReplyDeletemy top 5 US-listed small-cap stocks are:
NWLI
KCLI
MASC
ISSI
LION
My top 5 Canadian ones (most are on the pink sheets):
ABO.B
QUX
FAR
HCI
IDC
Let me know if you want any more info on any of these.
Another one of my holdings, cloud computing company Magic Software MGIC out with good earnings this morning and is up about 7% in tel-aviv.
ReplyDeleteReenues up over 25% and profits up over 60%. Trading at a reasonable p/e of under 15 and forward p/e of 10, no debt $50 million in cash on a $200 million market cap.
Yes, it is smallcap and Israeli you have the associated risks, but you also get the huge leverage available in software companies and it has been around since 1983, so not a flash in the pan type company.
I think it is worth a look at these prices or even moreso if we get a pullback and goes over $10 in the next year or 2.
This negative sentiment is great stuff, guys! We should actually be rooting for more downside- the sooner the better.
ReplyDeleteForget it. SSO off for a $120 loss.
ReplyDeleteIntraday reversal perhaps?
ReplyDeleteBB thanks they go on the watch list.
ReplyDeleteSVM - "Silvercorp Reports Net Income Up 82% to $25.6 Million or $0.15 Per Share"
ReplyDeleteTRW - +5%
ReplyDeleteTLT - Look like a short yet?
ReplyDeleteRight now it's short ANY little pop guys.
ReplyDeleteMaybe we find a bottom when oil reaches MOG's $85 base??
ReplyDeleteLooks like 1235ish is up next.
ReplyDeleteAlright sold my AMZN puts and am 100% cash
ReplyDeleteSurely SPX 1246 will spark a little panic?
ReplyDeleteAs soon as I finished posting the above, it drops another 2 pts.
ReplyDeleteSPX S1 toast. S2 is 1235. I honestly didn't see that when I posted my earlier 1235 take. That's from further back in the chart and not pivot based.
ReplyDeletewow...panic is setting in
ReplyDeleteMan, we are screaming lower. Crash time??
ReplyDeleteXLE breaks S2.
ReplyDeleteLet 'er drop. Let's hope we see a bottom today.
ReplyDeletePicked up Aug. 58 QQQ puts.
ReplyDeleteGreen close would be nice.
ReplyDeleteI believe part of the selling (as far as 'allowing' it to happen) is Wall Street's ---- you to the House/Senate.
ReplyDelete2nd- I agree with the Fu take.
ReplyDeleteAs in, remember who you report to.
ReplyDeleteLet's see if the bounce holds.
ReplyDeleteThe best scenario would be a fast/furious bounce into a green close followed by a gaps up on Thursday and Friday. That would effectively anyone who sold yesterday/today from buying back in.
ReplyDeleteGL!
ReplyDeletesold the puts. Need to eye some of the transports like FDX now.
ReplyDeleteI bought some SPY calls with ES at 1240 after it broke through support, came back and tested support, then made a higher low. Unfortunately, I only bought about $3k worth of them.
ReplyDeleteOvershot that March low a little, this level needs to hold.
ReplyDeleteBought a few more SPY Calls...August 122 calls expiring in 2.5 weeks. My avg price is $4.3.
ReplyDeleteI believe what will happen is we will most likely get a flat close today, showing one of those kangaroo tail reversal bars, then we will probably get a weaker close at some point over the next couple of days that will not break the intraday lows from today. It's at that point that we rally back up to 1,305ish. That's how I'm gonna trade it. Taking a small position here today with the hopes of getting some more in a few days on a weaker close, but not so weak as to blow out the lows from today
What we have here, is a failure to capitulate!
ReplyDeleteAdded a few more calls at $4.25..now have about $8k in them. Just keeping the rest in case until later this week/early next to confirm that this was the bottom, then I will look to move all in. Confirmation would be a lower close that doesn't go below today's lose, followed by a subsequent move up.
ReplyDeleteThe only good thing I have going today is SLV. All the oils are tanking big time except for my GEOI.
ReplyDeleteGMO - Earnings PR, we're still burning cash...
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/General-Moly-Announces-Second-bw-29736980.html?x=0&.v=1
Long WNC at $6.18 and at $6.15. Low risk trade with stop below $5.8
ReplyDeleteAdded a few more SPY $122 August Calls at $4.08. I think I'm done with those for now at $10k total.
ReplyDeleteLong BTU at $53; stop is below $52.
ReplyDeleteSwiss Franc/Yen - August 1st "It turns out that a race to zero in the world of currencies doesn’t do anyone any good if the Americans can’t afford to buy manufactured goods from nations."
ReplyDeletehttp://247wallst.com/2011/08/01/currency-intervention-from-japan-switzerland-protecting-the-dollar-from-the-dollar-ycl-fxy-jyf-fxf-fxe-uup/
My buy limit for 9000 shares of ECUXF did go through this morning at $0.76 -- yes! With everyone (including central banks) rushing into gold in the wake of the new recession, I can only salivate at the cashflow that ECU will have in the 4Q 2011.
ReplyDeleteAt the same time, my sell stop for my last 1000 shares of RBY was triggered this morning at $4.09, for a $400 loss on these shares. But that's OK -- now I have the cash in my account to back up the purchase of 2000 shares of CAAS (since my August $7.50 puts will most likely be assigned to me), and hence I was free to buy 9000 shares of ECUXF this morning.
So in effect I made a lateral move from RBY into ECU. The latter is clearly a much lower risk investment now, since RBY *still* needs to raise about $150M to build the mine AND it hasn't even started building the mine. So it has both financing and execution risks (the former is a formidable one if we are going into a recession now).
Thinking back, didn't Bernanke say he thought commodity inflation was a temporary phenomenon, and then later on he stated that gold is an "asset"? I guess he's interested in keeping asset prices from falling.
ReplyDeleteStill, isn't employment demand rising and supply decreasing?
Silver seems to be creeping up on $42 as I peck at this keyboard...
Q - How do we cash in on increasing demand for employment?
ReplyDeleteAdded some more WNC at $6.15...now at a medium sized position.
ReplyDeleteBEXP - Gap up from $28.07 is still open, a mere #1.02 from today's low (and within the daily range of stride).
ReplyDeleteSo because SVM has yet to close it's gap up from $9.22, I'm returning my focus towards an BEXP entry.
Of course I'll have to inspect the chart indicators for RSI values and such, prior to placing tomorrow's orders.
Short BGZ at $40.64
ReplyDeleteWay to go, TOF! Short those ultra-short f*ers! :) It is a guaranteed winning strategy over 6 months, unless you get greedy and open too large of a position.
ReplyDeleteFull position in WNC at $6.18 avg....listening to conf call right now...everything sounds good to me.
ReplyDeleteThat could have been a higher intraday low made for the market indices... I just bought 10 SPY August $127 calls at $1.29 each -- will sell them during the first bounce day.
ReplyDeleteAlso bought 5 September $127 SPY calls at $2.38.
ReplyDeleteGo get em David! I prefer ITM options though.
ReplyDeleteWill close the more risky first bunch of calls if SPY drops below the second higher low today...
ReplyDeleteTOF -- I also usually buy ITM options if I plan to hold them till expiration. Right now I am planning to sell the options after the first bounce, which should happen any day now... Alternatively, as I just posted, I'll close these calls today if the second higher low is violated.
ReplyDeleteGood strategy David...I would give it a little more room on your stops as this is quite volatile right now, which typically occurs around a top or bottom. Given the mini crash we have had from 1,340 last week, I'd say bottom.
ReplyDeleteWNC new
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by teamonfuego (2478 comments) on Wed, 08/03/2011 - 13:12 #90865
I know the market is bad and we're going into another depression, but check out the earnings call on WNC if you get a chance.
http://www.wabashnational.com/investors/index.htm#
Click on the "Upcoming Events" link on the right to listen to the call. It's quite bullish and they're basically involved with the nuts and bolts of the US economy.
"But, the improved leverage in our business was evident as we were able to maintain operating income margin consistent with the first quarter at 1.8 percent. In addition, our efforts to further diversify the business continued to gain traction as sales of our non-trailer related DuraPlate® products reached record levels, exceeding $15 million for the quarter."
Mr. Giromini continued, "New trailer shipments of 11,400 for the second quarter were just off guidance as customers again found it difficult to quickly adjust their pick-up rates in-line with our significantly increased production levels. However, this is only a timing event and we are increasing our new trailer shipment expectations for full year 2011 to an estimated 46,000 to 48,000 units. With shipments now reaching pre-recession levels, a continued strong backlog of $736 million, and the outlook for further growth in trailer demand, we remain confident on our strategic positioning of the Company to deliver improved margin performance over the cycle and continued diversification of the business."
FD: Long WNC from this morning at $6.18 avg.
Added to BTU. I ignored my own advice and am now 100% long through a large position in WNC at $6.18, a position in BTU at $53.05 average, short BGZ at $40.64, and long SPY August $122 calls at $4.11 average. I'm playing this until 1,305 or until we break down below today's lows. I suspect we get a retest in a few days but I don't think it will break the lows.
ReplyDeleteThat's a good exit strategy, TOF. I'll use it as well, assuming I don't get stopped out today (if indices break below the second higher low).
ReplyDeleteDavid - Today's low was a CLASSIC capitulation low. Huge volume, VIX spike (which was masked a bit by a fake elevated vix due to debt ceiling crap), big whoosh down after a large move lower and a prior day's close on the lows. That's exactly what I was looking for...that whole period where we were getting big moves down followed by dip buying needed to be cleared out. This action did just that.
ReplyDeleteCP, I think you can play the employment companies / HR companies as companies typically hire temps first, then FTE's.
ReplyDeleteMy stock to play this is CDI.
Wow...I came across this note on WNC back in May:
ReplyDelete"Boenning & Scattergood Starts Wabash National (WNC) at Outperform; Hugely-Cyclical Truck Trailer Industry Is Beginning a Pronounced Growth Upturn
10:34 am ET 05/12/2011 - StreetInsider
Boenning & Scattergood initiates coverage on Wabash National (NYSE: WNC) with an Outperform. PT $15.
Boenning analyst says, "While for a variety of reasons this is an unattractive business, we see plenty of up-side in the stock as revenues and margins very likely ramp upward through 2013. We forecast earnings will climb from $0.45 per share this year to $0.90 next year and, conceivably, to $1.75 in 2013 (if everything goes right). On the basis of that potential outlook, we are assigning a value of 16-17X next year s expected results of $0.90 to arrive at a 12-month target price of $15 per share."
For more ratings news on Wabash National click here and for the rating history of Wabash National click here.
Shares of Wabash National closed at $10.29 yesterday, with a 52 week range of $5.96-$13.17."
If they can manage to do even $1.50 EPS in 2013 and the economy is ok then today's prices would quite possibly be the best price to buy in at for a long while. At $1.50 the stock price would probably be in the mid $20's.
"David - Today's low was a CLASSIC capitulation low."
ReplyDeleteI agree, TOF. I also sensed that, and that's why I rushed buying my SPY calls an hour ago without waiting for SPY to rise above $1250, as we originally planned.
Now imagine you shorted the market big time yesterday. What would it take to scare you out of your position? I think a rise above June highs, i.e. $1295 on S&P would do it.
ReplyDelete2nd_ave -- what do you think?
Since I have two lots of SPY calls, I think I will sell the more risky lot (the August calls) quickly, so as to take some profit off the table, and will let the September calls run until S&P rises above $1295. So I just placed a sell limit at $1.99 for the 10 August $127 SPY calls I purchased today at $1.29.
ReplyDeleteSince I think we had our fear climax already for the next few weeks, I just bought 3 more September $25 puts on VXX at $3.20.
ReplyDeleteDavid - We're almost definitely going to get another test of the lows put in today. It's very rare to get a big capitulation low with no re-test shortly thereafter. Perhaps Friday's jobs report will be the reason for a retest? Either way I think it holds for the short term and we move back up to the 50 DMA around 1,305 (will be lower by the time we get there but I think 1,305 is the logical point because that was a big support/resistance point). Of course if we don't hold today's lows then this is a moot point.
ReplyDeleteTOF,
ReplyDeletere WNC, the one thing you need to be watch (and maybe you already are) is back a couple of years ago when they got into trouble, they issued about 25 million shares to Lincolnshire Hedge Fund in return for financing help. You see in their latest 10-k they now have 68 million share in their EPS calculation up from 40 million in 2010.
When I look at their business, i think the best you can expect is to get back to the mid-2005 business levels, so if this happens, the EPS will be diluted accordingly, so I don't think we see a $20 - $25 share price, but more in the $12 - $15 range.
Just an FYI when you're setting your targets.
Nice buy this morning.
We are now having an obligatory test of the $1250 level on S&P, which was the highest point between the first two intraday lows today. A great point to buy for those who are not long already...
ReplyDeleteBB > Yeah I'm definitely aware of the share dilution. I've been following this since it was in the 2's. They have a highly leveraged business that I don't have enough conviction in for a long term hold, but I could see it bouncing to $8 in the short term.
ReplyDeleteJPM and BAC actually look relatively strong here for what it's worth. They have both hung in well during this nasty downturn.
ReplyDeleteMA- That's an impressive move.
ReplyDeleteThe successful test of the 1250 level on S&P that we just had was also a test of the upward sloping line connecting the first 3 intraday lows. A GREAT point to buy, technically.
ReplyDeleteDavid- I still think exactly what I thought at 757 am this morning ;)
ReplyDeleteAlthough the grammatically cleaner way to say it is- My thinking hasn't changed.
ReplyDeleteWhere's your 10k shares of SSO, Mark?
ReplyDeleteAlright, let me rephrase. I think in 2 weeks there will be a lot of sorry --s m------------s wondering why they sold this morning.
ReplyDelete2nd- Sitting in cash my friend. I don't like to see oil this far off and gold this high. I'll be patient.
ReplyDelete2nd_ave, the grammar in that 757 post was also a bit unclear: "That would effectively anyone who sold yesterday/today from buying back in." :))
ReplyDeleteThe gaps up on Thursday and Friday can be small or they can be large. How high do you think S&P will rise by Friday, so as to scare the shorts out of their positions?
Or I guess I'll be a sorry.... :)
ReplyDeleteGood catch. However, this blog is populated with mind readers who have no problem filling in blanks.
ReplyDeleteIt would have to be over 1295.
ReplyDeleteS&P is up only 10 points from when I purchased my August 127 SPY calls (it was $1245 then), and the calls are already up from $1.29 to $1.79. I am moving my sell limit up from $1.99 to $2.60, so as to exactly double the money I put into them.
ReplyDeleteDavid- Why not just sell them and take the profits. Even one day can erode the premiums for calls that expire that soon. You can always buy back in?
ReplyDeleteSo everyone thinks Friday's payrolls report will suck. Let's keep it that way.
ReplyDelete2nd_ave, after today's green close, it is almost guaranteed that S&P will be higher than today's close some time tomorrow. So let me see what happens tomorrow before selling these calls...
ReplyDeleteI should have followed my own advice and added even more SPY calls after the successful retest of 1250...
ReplyDeleteDavid - That is the beauty of being in the money...my strikes are $122 so even if we get a 100 pt selloff tomorrow I will only lose about 25% from the current price.
ReplyDeleteTOF, the beauty of being out-of-the-money is that if we go up another 10 points on S&P tomorrow, then my calls will double. :) Buying in-the-money options is the thing to do if you are not very confident about your timing. I am pretty confident about my timing now (I was lucky not to buy such out-of-the-money calls last week), and so I think I could reward my patience with buying OTM calls (it's as if I bought ITM calls last week).
ReplyDeleteHm... Maybe I rushed too much with my VXX puts, as VIX futures are in backwardation now and so VXX will gradually grow as long as this condition persists... If they don't get into a contango mode in the next couple of days, I'll close my puts.
ReplyDeleteGood article in the WSJ about how the middle class is rising in countries like Indonesia and how multi-national countries like Honda are selling to this market.
ReplyDeleteIt's these small adjustments around the world that will cause things to work out in the end.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304793504576432090397556856.html?ru=yahoo&mod=yahoo_hs
David is giving some sort of VXX dance lesson in the next room over if anyone is interested :)
ReplyDeleteTOF- Is that where CP went? Should I knock first?
ReplyDeleteSo GS called for another round of QE last week and this week the FED telegraphs the possibility?
ReplyDeleteHmm... No wonder equities reversed today...
Where'd he go? I had an important meeting to attend in the batroom.
ReplyDeleteCP, how did the Fed telegraph the possibility of QE3 today? I missed it...
ReplyDeleteDavid - I think CP is saying that the Fed might possibly telegraph QE this week...
ReplyDeleteAmazing, they just can't get enough of our debt! Who's buying those Treasuries? Possibly Japan, China, BRIC, Switzerland, in order to keep their currencies from rising against the dollar?
ReplyDeleteOf course they don't want to experience the wrath of a deflationary spiral created by a too strong currency, so they buy dollars (ie: Treasury debt by printing and selling their currencies, presumably) in an attempt to err on the side of inflation.
I think that's how we got to where we are right now, A treasury that just can't print enough paper to meet demand and an economy with no jobs because the dollar denominated finished goods and services just aren't competitive in a global market.
Pimco claims there are no viable alternatives to the USD for the purpose of foreign reserves.
http://www.pimco.com/EN/Insights/Pages/The-End-of-Currency-Wars.aspx
Korea buys gold for the first time in 13 years.
"By Alix Steel 08/02/11 - 03:34 PM EDT NEW YORK (TheStreet ) -- Gold prices hit record highs Tuesday as the Bank of Korea bought more gold"
No, there were news clips floating around today of an interview of some sort with Former-FED officials communicating possible need for QE if inflation slows.
ReplyDeleteIsn't this how they usually do this, by floating it out there? Just look at the huge interest in T's, a little QE should be acceptable, right?
Better read it before it maybe disappears?
August 3, 2011, 1:10 PM ET.
"In an exclusive interview with the Wall Street Journal, Donald Kohn, Vincent Reinhart and Brian Madigan – the last three directors of the Fed’s powerful monetary affairs division — put the risk of a new economic contraction at between 20% and 40%. Madigan and Kohn said the Fed should consider a third round of bond purchases only if inflation slows from recent elevated levels and if the economy continues to underperform. But they cautioned a new purchase program, dubbed QE3, would not represent a cure-all."
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2011/08/03/former-top-fed-officials-signal-support-for-qe3-if-inflation-slows/
More insurance company good news. 2 of the big 3 Canadian insurers reported today (Sun Life - SLF and Greatwest Life - GWOLF), both with large US operations and handily beat estimates.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/03/canada-insurers-idUSN1E7721ZS20110803?feedType=RSS&feedName=companyNews&rpc=43
I was out cutting the lawn before and asking myself why I wouldn't put all of money into insurance companies now with such cheap valuations, good earnings, good yields (for the most part) and only requiring a reversion to the mean for significant returns. Would never actually do this, but it's got that "can't lose" feel to it now.
BB > Yeah the insurers look good. If I can throw all of my money into MITK then you surely can put your money into large insurers! Come on man!
ReplyDeleteSeriously, though, it does sure look like the right time to buy some of these.
New James K article:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/global-financial-markets-financial-markets-bank/8/3/2011/id/36117
I like his thinking, but I think we rally first toward 1,300 then we get a big whoosh down to the 1,200-1,220ish level. For what it's worth he was advocating shorting TLT just a month or two ago.