Saturday, August 6, 2011

08/06/11 Trading the future

As traders, we leave behind the past, and attempt to discount the future:

(a) The day unemployment hits 6%.
(b) The day S&P reinstates a AAA rating for Treasury debt.
(c) The day we're able to brag about buying SPX '11-12-1300, whatever...something with a low one-handle, man...I kid you not.'

I say all of the above happens by mid-2014.

40 comments:

  1. David is a good example of someone who is able to vacation while looking forward to the day his price targets are hit.

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  2. Here's what I've got, it's worth what ypu paid for it:

    TLT - RSI(7) peaked at 89.17 and turned down through 70.

    TLT - Looks like a giant H&S pattern over a two year span aside from the mean spike up all this month. I suspect this spike invalidates the H&S pattern.

    Anyway, many of my indicators tell me equities longs can breath a sigh of relief. We'll seem this is one crazt market to be trying to time, would be a perfect setup for a walletechtomy.

    Hmm, that gap up in SLW hasn't yet closed...

    To be concluded...

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  3. cp- Pretty decent typing for a BAC of 0.08.

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  4. Speaking of which, I'm on way to a double-martini dinner.

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  5. Sneak peek at standard DC mentality:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CeY2fI8Z6Pc

    Did you guys catch the bit about how the FAA shutdowns the sent 40,000 employees home for a couple of weeks was simply a match between bullies?

    Think about it, I realize it's not easy to comprehend the "me first at all cost" mentality.

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  6. Man, it looks like both of you cats have hit the nip early. I'll catch up now.

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  7. Twits comment of the day...

    '$BAC Hard supports 7.50 - 5.00.'

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  8. What we drinking? I can't hang with 2nd. Martinis make me real happy then real tired. Whats wrong with me.

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  9. Stoli here bro, so it might have the same effect on you.

    Yes, Chase is playing for OSU again. Looks like he will start this year. Should know in a month or so.

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  10. Nice about chase. I will be watching. Forgot to mention that Martinis also make me horny in between the happy and tired phase, but do you guys need to know everything.

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  11. EGG plant. Does anyone have any recipes. I just bought some nice ones, but I don't know what to do with them. Help.

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  12. EGG plant - Google a recipe, slice and bake in oven. mmmmmmm!

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  13. Who wants to turn on the oven in the heat? How to do eggplant in the microwave?

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  14. Just got back from Alfred's, where I ordered a 'Real Martini.'

    http://www.alfredssteakhouse.com/menus/AlfredsSteakhouse_CocktailMenu_20110701.pdf

    The martini arrives in its own shaker, along with a cocktail glass. If I had to guess, I would say the container volume was close to a pint. So basically ordering a martini means ordering 'a pint, mate.'

    Seriously, I couldn't finish even one. Glad I didn't order a double.

    What else? Filet mignon and lobster (guessing 3/4 lb tail) + baked potato. Cheese cake and espresso.

    I met a few colleagues, and brought my oldest along.

    Validated parking at the Hilton next door.

    Great place for the next TT dinner. My share of the bill for my son and I came to 150, so about 75/person, gratuities included.

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  15. Eggplant is a primary ingredient in a concoction called "Ratatouille" or something like that. Delicious veggie dish. Tomato is the other main thing. Add onion, garlic, zucchini, etc. Do not add coon meat.

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  16. Driving in to SF, the traffic was so bad we arrived 10 minutes late, despite leaving an hour ahead of time. If we're in the midst of a recession, it was difficult to detect this evening.

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  17. 2nd - That had to be a great break from solitary.

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  18. Let me go on record as saying the SPX closes 2011 nearer to 1400 than to 1300.

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  19. illini- If one knows the right people, doing time can be nicer than life on the outside.

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  20. I am thinking of using the barbie on them. A marinaded egg plant satay with pork skewers, brown rice and a salad.

    http://www.thaikitchen.com/Recipes/Vegetables/Eggplant-Satay.aspx

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  21. Dam,n I'm throwing my egg plant away and going to Alfreds.

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  22. Here's a thought.

    Let's say it was possible for homo sapiens to freeze themselves into unconsciousness, and set an alarm to awaken at a future date based on a trigger event. Such as SPX 1450.

    Now, it's easy to imagine the 'high' we would all experience if the SPX were to hit 1450 next Monday. Instead, the SPX is likely to head lower before arriving at 1450.

    By setting a wake-up call to coincide with 1450, we could replicate that experience.

    We could also, however, approximate that experience by taking a vacation from the markets- asking a spouse or friend to jolt us back into market reality only when the SPX hits 1450.

    After all, if we're in buy-and-hold mode, what point is there in experiencing the many sell offs along the way?

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  23. rb- That's the most sensible comment you've made all week.

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  24. It's almost like asking the dentist for nitrous oxide.

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  25. When you wake up, it's all over.

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  26. In fact, I'm considering no additional posts until 1450. Every time I get to urge to post, I'll work on a martini until the urge goes away.

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  27. "When you wake up, it's all over."

    "I want to wake up to 1450."

    Reminds me of my hip operation last OCT. No pain on the day. Some for a couple of months but always improving. Would that the market had such a predictable path.

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  28. 2nd It amuses me how our market perspectives has both gone 180 degrees. When i first started rapping with you at CC I was a buy and hold guy and you were a hold a stock for ten minute guy. Strangely at that time the S+P was probably around 1450. Maybe when you wake up it will be 2007 again.

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  29. I love the optimism 2nd. we just saw crazy someting love or whatever its called. Tried to see the apes movie but the line was out the door. The alternative was a. Really good movie actuallly

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  30. God does love me! The wife just said that since I have a fantasy football draft today that we don't have to go to church.....He does move in mysterious ways

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  31. Where to from here? Will US Treasuries be repriced to the upside, or downside?

    “If interest rates rise, it will break the back of a already very depressed and fragile housing market and increase debt stress on the money center banks,” Meyer expects.

    http://blogs.forbes.com/kenrapoza/2011/08/06/hard-assets-the-place-to-be-following-us-credit-downgrade/?partner=yahootix

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  32. "Driving in to SF, the traffic was so bad we arrived 10 minutes late, despite leaving an hour ahead of time. If we're in the midst of a recession, it was difficult to detect this evening."

    That's what I see as well, for the most part. Yes, I do see some suffering and the economy has slowed somewhat, but I don't see collapse occurring before my eyes. Not to say it won't happen, just that I don't see it.

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  33. JASO - Is there really enough cash in their drawer to buy up the entire float?

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  34. PFF - Anybody think it's oversold here? Maybe not quite yet, I don't know, it's still being repriced?

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  35. Groundhog Day Seems like everytime my portfolio hits a new high, there's a huge pullback following.

    Next time I hit a new high, I'm going all cash and wait for the crash.

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  36. Caught a possum last night, must be plenty of hungry critters mulling about in the woods at night in search of food...

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  37. ETF Gaps - Well I'll be a monkey's uncle, those gaps up in the ETF's that I thought didn't count b/c they weren't in the indexes, have been filled now...

    SOAB!

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  38. $1776 - Wonder if I'll be watching this price somewhere on my screen this week?

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