Most amazing turnaround I have seen. I was talking to Dave about how FOMC notes came short of the expectations and the market is falling. Dave made an interesting comment that markets move a lot around FOMC announcement and the market can gap up tomorrow. I left to the gym at 12:00 PST all frustrated about failed up move. When I came back I checked to see how much money I lost courtesy of Mr. Bernanke. It was a bit of a shock to realize that all my losses from Monday (largest single day loss in a year) has been recovered in 45 minutes. What a day....
There are definitely some dark clouds gathering overhead, which was the main reason why I moved to cash today. I was stubbornly waiting for a bounce for 5 days which is just a bad way to dip buy when you're looking for a short term bounce. Honor the stops....
Anyway, after the Fed's statement, I can't help but think this is practically confirmation that we're heading the way of Japan. I suspect we're going to have great big ole trading ranges for the next several years....probably where 1,250 is the upside now and wherever it is that we bottom out as the downside. I was thinking before that we would rally to new highs first in the next 3 months or so but this past week pretty much crossed that off the list.
Here come old flattop, he come grooving up slowly He got joo-joo eyeball, he one holy roller He got hair down to his knee Got to be a joker he just do what he please.
I tried to post in response to ToF about how I am hurting too with oil stocks, which now are trying to fill the Monday morning gap down. It got blown away (the post that is). It was on the old pictograph where I had nothing showing about a new post.
CP - Thanks. I did not know about the limit. There it was and here it is:
Probably everyone not in cash or gold has had a rough week or more. I did primarily because of my oil producer holdings (OXY,PXD,MRO,GEOI,BEXP) not to mention BTU. Hope came in late afternoon on all of those and they trended up in an attempt to fill the common down gap from Monday morning. Only in the fullness of time....etc,etc.
illini - Glad to hear you didn't get whipped out for no good reason, perhaps you've occupied an adjacent cell to 2nd.
I really don't see how we can't recover nicely, and I don't think commodities will be all that far behind, so they must have another trick up their sleeve to knock them back down?
Well, if they can keep the Cushing inventories high, that might make a difference?
TLT Short why not? - Yep, I think bondies have already realized Ben hosed new comers, not sure why they piled in so much yesterday.
The one thing bondies may have on their side is a rate cap guarantee, but where is it and how much margin is left? Plus, who would want to hold an almost guaranteed losing position in comparison to oversold equities?
Ben hosed Mom & Pop CD saver today by saying they would get negative returns at least until 2013. Perhaps that will drive some into higher yielding stocks such as utilities. No big deal in this age of HFT but I did see the my one utility go up steeply in late afternoon. NWN.
CP- Pretty much every trading platform, except yours it seems, has a real time news feed. I check the news on all the stuff we talk about when I'm here. Once a form 4 is filled, I'd guess it's about 2 minutes until I see it if I'm watching that feed.
Only a few of them have a brokerage account. The upsurge in yield products today is more likely the traders anticipating better things ahead for yield products. Comprehende? You probably do more than me but neither you or I focus much on such products.
"Pretty much every trading platform, except yours it seems"
Don't go with BACML, I think they're trying to set their customers up for failure.
I can dig it though, b/c I'm way ahead of them anyway and on to their ways. If they provided service, I wouldn't trust it. Yeah, they slow me down but they can't keep me down.
CSCO - Money flow has been flat lately, not down, indicating patient accumulation (in my opinion). RSI(7) (should check the longer others, too, and see if they're below 30) is in accumulation zone, share price is at 2009 low...
I wouldn't be surprised to see it retest the 2003 $10 low, if you're willing to endure the pain.
IGOR: If you think you need to hedge CSCO at 14.00 what is really the point of owning it.Insurance premium is going to cut into any possible upside that you are hoping to get with CSCO. Frankly in this environment you probably need to hedge all your positions. Stocks move like every hour is an earnings report. And just because we went up a whole bunch in one hour the all clear signal was not sounded. I said this before, i don't see how CSCO is going to outperform the QQQs and would recommend selling it and rolling it into the QQQS etf Where you will get exposure to APPL, GOOG AMZN and eventually facebook as well as csco and INTL along with the other 80 or so stocks.
CP gave me another thought about csco. 10,000 pissed off emploees. How much csco stock do they own? Or put another way How much stock are they going to sell. Maybe not enough to effect a 70 billion market cap, but it is a consideration.
CSCO is purely a value play for me at that point. Everybody is so negative about it. But it is still a market leader in the exponentially growing space (think mobile and cloud computing). Does not all this traffic go through CSCO gear. The risk/reward potential is good. I don't see much of the downside but upside can be substantial if things turn positive ( may be $25 target). I don't anticipate such growth with QQQ but I fully understand that CSCO turn around can take a few quarters.
Transfers in the 4.7 million 401(k) accounts monitored by consultant Aon Hewitt exceeded $1.6 billion on Monday, more than three times the normal level of activity. In a typical day investors make around $300 million to $400 million in 401(k) transfers.
All of the assets moved Monday were taken out of stock funds and invested primarily in bond funds. It was the fifth-highest day of transfer activity since the company began tracking the data in 1997.
Also, re Kass, he is a serial bottom and top caller. Can't remember how many times he said he was "all in" during late 2008 / early 2009. He did call it "a generational buying opportunity" in early March, 2009, but that was after many other such extravagant calls that didn't pan out and he seems to have forgotten.
Be interesting to see the returns on his funds if anyone has access to this. Actually, be great if CNBC showed the returns for all their guests who come on espousing their ideas.
I think energy stocks are the best buy and hold stocks in the market.
Energy demand continues to grow and supply is becoming more and more difficult.
ON the demand side, you've got the western countries whose demand is stable, perhaps growing the GDP, but does not go down a lot even with a slower economy.
In the developing world, you've got China alone adding almost 20 million cars per year, aircraft sales exploding and no slowdown in site. Even if you get a slowdown, these new car owners will still consume gas.
On the production side, oil is getting more and more expensive to produce and conventional fields are on the decline. New production is coming from oil sands, deep water drilling and new technologies to pull oil out of difficult geological structures (like the Bakken). Without $80 or more likely $100 oil, a lot of these projects don't get funded and supply slows and prices go up anyhow.
Energy is my second largest holding (after financials which I am buying because they are cheap and plan to sell on a reversion the mean) and half of my really long terms stocks (ones that I have owned 8 years or more) are oil.
JB Let go of the trade. Think about all the money stops have saved you. Don't let it effect future trades.Anything can happen. My platitudes taped to the wall that I read after I get RINSED. Fuck it just drink beer.
RB - I know you're right, for today I'm shutting off the trading platforms and the second the dear wife is out the door I'm cracking open the beer...great suggestion~
JB I thought for a minute you said, "MY 2nd wife." LOL. I was thinking if he has so many wives why don't one of them get him a beer. I am not trading anymore either. We will miss a lot of volatility and end up in the same place for tomorrow.:)
INVE - I worked on a similar project at "secret" (no sign on building) location near Gilroy for Intel. Crazy hours with hyperventilating and nervous engineers (typical Intel mode of operation, armchair engineering group), LOL.
Intel can mass produce this chip for over 10 years now. This was a production size facility, not a skunkworks lab. It's easy to make, simple and cheap.
Unless they shut line down for some reason, I doubt it though, they were very tight-lipped.
INVE maybe holds patent? Not sure what special thing INVE might have that Intel, etc. can't already do.
"Some possible modest signs of stability are emerging: The drop in gold, the generally better relative action of high octane (beta) stocks (that led the upside yeseterday) and renewed chest thumping of bears in the media."
This Kass guy is unbelievable...classic example of taking a position and then finding a reason to support it rather than the other way around...we've all been there...
Interesting that the Canadian market popped into the green today around noon and now trying to get back above. Benefiting from high oil and gold and lower dollar, but often Toronto will lead New York up.
Wonder how he figures its a drop in gold when it is still up $35 for the day? A 2 hour drop means the market has met it's low for the year?
I think the best news of the day really is the oil inventory numbers showing a big drop and the corresponding rise in oil prices - shows the economy is not falling off a cliff.
BB - Kass is the ultimately schizo trader in my opinion...he keeps making bottom and top calls, doesn't use stops, etc. I can only imagine what his P&L looks like. Probably the reason he writes for a living and goes on TV so much...he's gotta pay for those losses somehow.
Well screw me.....put half my cash to work yesterday. At lest 30% of that was into miners....that is something i guess. Went against my better judgement. Should have know that rally would be faded.
illini, I do arb trading, but there really haven't been many decent opportunities this year - either too risky or too high of a spread.
The only one I have now is GRFS and it's not a pure arb play, but a play on the spread between the class "b" share and the "a" share.
I will take a look at the 2 you mentioned. They both seem good, but have to do some more digging.
Thanks for highlighting these - I'd kind of forgotten about arb plays as they have been so poor this year. I made a lot of money off arbs in 2008 as the spreads really widened out as the market got poor. The nice thing about them is your return is fairly secure, the bad thing is that they don't move as well as the market when the market turns, but I find them to be a nice portfolio diversifier.
You probably know this, but a good web site for arb trading is:
Company Symbol Company Name Insider Num Shares Price per Share Amount ($) Transaction Date AKS AK STEEL HOLDING CORP WAINSCOTT JAMES L 25000 7.96 199,030 Aug 09
ZEUS OLYMPIC STEEL INC MARABITO RICHARD T 1500 20.75 31,118 Aug 26 ZEUS OLYMPIC STEEL INC POTASH ESTHER 500 24.79 12,395 Aug 05 ZEUS OLYMPIC STEEL INC MANSON RICHARD A 80 24.49 1,959 Aug 05 ZEUS OLYMPIC STEEL INC SIEGAL MICHAEL D 1500 24.79 37,185 Aug 05 ZEUS OLYMPIC STEEL INC WOLFORT DAVID A 1000 21.35 21,350 Aug 08 ZEUS OLYMPIC STEEL INC MARABITO RICHARD T 2000 24.79 49,580 Aug 05
A Vix Buy Signal (for equities) is technically issued when the Vix drops back within the bollinger bands after closing above the upper bollinger band for at least one day. The buy signal has to be confirmed however by a lower close the following day as well. The last signal at the end of July wasn't confirmed and another has now been generated and is awaiting confirmation today. I'm doubtful about this one being confirmed as well but we'll see how that goes today:
re HK, I think they are being optimistic with an Aug. 31 close date. the web site I mentioned has a year-end close and annualized return of 4%. I started going through the SEC filings and the initial close date is set for Aug 19th, but it says it will be extended as required for government approvals. The end date really affects the annualized ROI.
For KCI, they've filed a preliminary proxy, but no dates are entered yet. The merger web site has a close date of Nov 15th, giving an annualized return of 12%.
There are some better looking arb returns though, so I am going to spend some more time going through these and I'll let you know if I buy any of them.
I hope ECU hangs around this low level until Monday, when I'll have my next paycheck and will be able to buy more of it at this amazing price. After I had decided that I'll hold ECU for more than a year, any drop becomes a cause for celebration and adding more shares as opposed to a cause for panic and selling shares. Investment mentality is great in this market!
I have to believe jewelry demand is suffering due the high price of gold and if the Indian wedding season is week, you're basically counting on investment demand to keep the price of gold up and I think that is a bad bet.
I just added 700 more shares of CADC to my position here at $1.63, completing the investment of the money I got from selling MITK at $7.25. Now I have 5700 shares of CADC and no MITK...
BB Canada -- I think the impact of jewelry buyers on gold is noise in comparison to the tonnes of gold (literally tonnes) being bought by central banks now.
BB - thanks for the reply on arbs and the website. In fact, the potential gains for KCI and HK have weakened intraday as the stock prices have climbed a bit.
Kitco has a good chart showing where gold goes at http://www.kitco.com/charts/CPM_charts.html
From 2000 - 2009, real demand fell from 100 million ounces to 70 million and investment demand through ETF's increased from 0 to 50 million.
The problem with it is only goes to 2009 and I also think things have changed a lot since then. I don't think investment demand is high enough to absorb all of the gold being mined and you so need some real demand to get gold off the market. Almost every investor I talk to who owns gold has a plan to sell it before it comes back down, so the risk is if too many people try to do this at the same time and flood the market.
"Looks like we got our test of Monday's low today, and it succeeded. So we may get a few up days in a row now -- wouldn't it be a nice change, eh? :) "
David - I'm thinking we see a small bounce perhaps until tomorrow and then we sell down to 1,100 which will mark a short term bottom (to be broken a few months down the road of course :( )
Saw the EMC buy. I typically discount 10%+ holder buys unless its a C-level employee. Its also a little extended here. I'm still screening for insider buy stocks that are the most extended to the downside.
We are on pace for the first Vix buy signal since the collapse. I'll be watching the Vix closely into the close.
10 day put call ratio is hitting extremes above 1.22. Prior 2 year peaks were 1.15. P/C ratios are not updating on stockcharts. Anybody have put call figures for today?
If we trade up a little from here into the close, we could get a big rally starting tomorrow.
2-3 year bear market officially started, but we should get 2-4 week rips here and there.
David - There's a chance, though, that the drop down to 1,100 yesterday was indeed the low...it would be a perfect setup to trap people...a drop below the low of the correction, then a snap back higher, which traps longs yet again as it pulls back hard like it is doing today.
If this is the case, I think a rally to 1,250 and possibly up to the 200 DMA wouldn't be out of the question over the next couple of months.
SPX - Looks like a multi-month HnS playing out to me w/ LH shoulder (July 09 - July 10) w/ neckline being the support range 1025-1075 that needs to be challenged before the bounce
It all depends on todays close if yesterday was the bottom, obviously. If we close above 1,120 (preferably like 1,140) then this is just backing and filling right here before moving higher for the next few weeks.
That's just incredible, I can't understand that. GS is an insider and I thought they were always on the right side of the trade.
They should be making huge money in this market, and traders sell it off! What's that all about, do they really have any chance whatsoever of blowing up?
the only good thing from today is that the lows from monday held...
David and I were talking about a sign for a bottom about 10% higher than current levels....at 1,250 or so. What we were saying we should wait for is a break below the support levels, then a move above, and then a test back down at the support levels. Well, if 1,120 was that support level then this would be the setup we were looking for. Obviously, a close below 1,120 would negate this.
in the longer term picture, in general after a move like this we should see a pretty sizable rally, possibly as high as the 200 DMA (which will now begin falling for the first time since it turned north in 2009), before continuing the selloff. the european disaster is the reason for this....but the debt problems in general are the reason for this big bad bear market resurfacing.
Ah, so THIS was the retest of Monday's low. Well, tomorrow will be the all-important day. If the market goes up tomorrow, even a little, then it will most likely signify the start of a multi-day rebound rally. If the market goes down tomorrow, then there won't be a rebound rally until we drop much lower, like in S&P 990.
Yeah, pretty sure GS bought him out. GS has reduced their trading desk due to issues from the financial crisis, so don't they are so much on the inside anymore.
Good results from 2nd favourite CSCO tonight. Let's hope the outlook is at least reasonable. Stock trading up in afterhours.
====== Cisco Systems (CSCO) this afternoon reported fiscal Q4 revenue and earnings per share ahead of analysts’ estimates.
Revenue in the three months ended in June rose to $11.2 billion, yielding EPS of 40 cents per share.
Analysts on average were estimating $10.97 billion and 38 cents per share.
For fiscal Q1, analysts have been modeling $10.96 billion and 39 cents per share.
Got to be a bounce sometime. just hope it is not after down another 10% or 20%!
TSX (Toronto) up 0.75% today with 7 of 10 sectors up including financials. TSX is generally a "risk-on" market and doesn't get hit with the big programmed trading like the US, so the fact it is up is often a good sign that it could have just been a program or big hedge fund liquidation in the US today.
thx BB - I'm not going to be able to dial into the con call but I will follow on the live blog. my main areas of interest are: crop spending around cloud/data center, how fast are they getting out of nonperforming biz and any sense as to overall IT spend trends
I just looked at the 1-month intraday chart of S&P at google, and I saw an accelerated decline into abyss followed by a lot of volatility between 1100 and 1160 during the 3 sideways days (if we exclude the initial gap down on Monday). So I think the chances of 1100 being the bottom are high, and I say that a rebound rally starts tomorrow.
This is either a short term bottom or midpoint consolidation of a quick measured move target of 950ish (1350-1150). Today's late day push off the moving averages suggests the latter.
One look at a chart like EWZ suggests the overall move is just getting started.
One just needs to look at VIX, QID, EEV, BGZ etc. which are classic breakout plays that we would all be salivating over if we were able to see past their "evil" ticker symbols.
In the meantime, I'll be closely watching the VIX for a bollinger buy signal.
In spite of the market's plunge, Henry Blodget thinks equity valuations are still above historical norms, when measured using earnings adjusted for business cycle shifts in profit margins.
Jesse - I totally agree...I think a whole helluva lot of people are not expecting a replay of 2008 so close to it yet the more selling we get without significantly sustainable bounces, the higher the odds are that we are not anywhere near the bottom. I was one of those dip buyers 10% higher but I capitulated and moved completely to cash yesterday and I'm only doing very tiny trades at this point (i.e., 5% or so of total portfolio invested). I don't have any conviction from the long side and can see a scenario where we just keep falling and falling as we get more and more dip buyers along the way saying it can't get any lower, only to watch it go lower. Also, shorts are out of the market at this point as they are so scared of these nasty bounces so the odds of short covering bounces that turn into sustainable rallies are getting lower and lower as well.
It's a vicious cycle at this point. We really need 1,120 to hold or else I believe we are going significantly lower.
cp - Here's a chart from Landry (last year) when I was listening to him regularly (so it's a little dated). He remarked at the time that it looked 'ominous' and it does...
cp - can you get the NYUGrad chart?? He showed it better than I did. That 990'ish level going back to 1998-2002 and the 1010 spike down at end of June 2010. It looks like there may be a support band in that 1020-1050 range (looking at end of 2001 too) but WTF knows...
Kyle - I saw something I think from Ritholtz that made a lot of sense to me:
"S&P500 expectations of $94 for 2012 at a 15 multiple gives us a prior price target of $1400 on the SPX. If that falls only $10 to $84, and the multiple contracts to 12, we are at 1020. And if we really get whacked, and earnings drop to $75 at a 10 P/E, well, you can do the math."
tof - that's what Pisani was talking about on cnbc today - that these forward earnings numbers are 'mushy' given their exposure to Europe as well as the domestic economy and if Asia softens too...
I'll take a freaking Hail Mary to finish out the week.
ReplyDeleteMost amazing turnaround I have seen. I was talking to Dave about how FOMC notes came short of the expectations and the market is falling. Dave made an interesting comment that markets move a lot around FOMC announcement and the market can gap up tomorrow. I left to the gym at 12:00 PST all frustrated about failed up move. When I came back I checked to see how much money I lost courtesy of Mr. Bernanke. It was a bit of a shock to realize that all my losses from Monday (largest single day loss in a year) has been recovered in 45 minutes. What a day....
ReplyDeleteStaubach has agreed to accept a sideline play signal from Kass.
ReplyDeleteIgor- That's the beauty of buy-and-hold! Let the Market frustrate the day traders to your benefit.
ReplyDeleteIgor - Nice man! Way to hold on.
ReplyDeleteThere are definitely some dark clouds gathering overhead, which was the main reason why I moved to cash today. I was stubbornly waiting for a bounce for 5 days which is just a bad way to dip buy when you're looking for a short term bounce. Honor the stops....
Anyway, after the Fed's statement, I can't help but think this is practically confirmation that we're heading the way of Japan. I suspect we're going to have great big ole trading ranges for the next several years....probably where 1,250 is the upside now and wherever it is that we bottom out as the downside. I was thinking before that we would rally to new highs first in the next 3 months or so but this past week pretty much crossed that off the list.
How many games are won against the odds? That's as American as apple pie.
ReplyDeleteWonder where the RSI's landed, guess I'll find out later tonight or in the morning...
ReplyDeleteInteresting insider buy. EMC (10% Owner) bought about 1M shares of VMW over the last few days.
ReplyDeleteYes, BB, I'm thinking of shorting gold.
ReplyDeleteCP- GMO +20%. 'Nuff said.
ReplyDeleteHoping to play the Steamroller Blues on Wednesday. You know what I mean.
ReplyDelete+430. +650. +1000+. Tue/Wed/Thu. That would kind of do it for me.
ReplyDeleteFriday the eagle flies.
Twits comment of the day. (Yesterday)...
ReplyDelete"$MOTR does not seem to be able to budge below 4.42 book value line, buying small POS before earnings... Most oversold I have seen in a while."
Mark > that hurts man...talk about crash.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-09/south-korea-bans-short-selling-as-state-run-funds-signal-increased-buying.html
WTF...why are these countries banning short selling again? Greece (yeah I know) did as well.
Here come old flattop, he come grooving up slowly
ReplyDeleteHe got joo-joo eyeball, he one holy roller
He got hair down to his knee
Got to be a joker he just do what he please.
If we hit 1250 by Friday I'll post that song.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/
ReplyDeleteInteresting take
Banning short selling. Might as well hang a shingle by the door saying 'Sell at will.'
ReplyDeleteMOTR/LLNW/APKT...This must be one tough industry.
Trader Dan...Make sense to me and dovetails MOG's take. Grinder.
ReplyDeleteMaybe NOG is for real??
ReplyDeleteI tried to post in response to ToF about how I am hurting too with oil stocks, which now are trying to fill the Monday morning gap down. It got blown away (the post that is). It was on the old pictograph where I had nothing showing about a new post.
ReplyDeleteGMO - Insider buy today. I had thought about trading in and out of my position but now I don't think that's a good idea.
ReplyDeleteillini, I bet you got caught in the 200 post per page limit, to see new posts over 200 count, select next page in lower right corner.
ReplyDeleteCP - Thanks. I did not know about the limit. There it was and here it is:
ReplyDeleteProbably everyone not in cash or gold has had a rough week or more. I did primarily because of my oil producer holdings (OXY,PXD,MRO,GEOI,BEXP) not to mention BTU. Hope came in late afternoon on all of those and they trended up in an attempt to fill the common down gap from Monday morning. Only in the fullness of time....etc,etc.
Heard a good market commentary from Faber on Bloomberg:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/video/73736400/
After listening to it I got a strong desire to short TLT. Any thoughts?
If we get 1250 or higher I will unfortunately get 100% short
ReplyDeleteillini - Glad to hear you didn't get whipped out for no good reason, perhaps you've occupied an adjacent cell to 2nd.
ReplyDeleteI really don't see how we can't recover nicely, and I don't think commodities will be all that far behind, so they must have another trick up their sleeve to knock them back down?
Well, if they can keep the Cushing inventories high, that might make a difference?
Just a thought. Can we please NOT bring back Congress during their brake. Please?
ReplyDeleteCP- Yeah, I saw the insider buying. Check out the insider buying in WLT. WEAK!!!
http://seekingalpha.com/article/286017-second-quarter-earnings-in-the-bakken
ReplyDeleteSpeaks to the smaller players including GEOI which I bought because it also is in the Eagle Ford of south TX, as noted in the article.
TLT Short why not? - Yep, I think bondies have already realized Ben hosed new comers, not sure why they piled in so much yesterday.
ReplyDeleteThe one thing bondies may have on their side is a rate cap guarantee, but where is it and how much margin is left? Plus, who would want to hold an almost guaranteed losing position in comparison to oversold equities?
A short can't lose and at worst won't gain much?
Mark - When did you see the insider buying? I just saw it an hour ago... ;(
ReplyDeleteI'm tellin' ya, I have to dig hard and think way forward with my platform, nothing just comes to me.
"Can we please NOT bring back Congress"
Put them all on the same plane with a half load of fuel and send it over the big pond.
Ben hosed Mom & Pop CD saver today by saying they would get negative returns at least until 2013. Perhaps that will drive some into higher yielding stocks such as utilities. No big deal in this age of HFT but I did see the my one utility go up steeply in late afternoon. NWN.
ReplyDeleteCP- Pretty much every trading platform, except yours it seems, has a real time news feed. I check the news on all the stuff we talk about when I'm here. Once a form 4 is filled, I'd guess it's about 2 minutes until I see it if I'm watching that feed.
ReplyDeleteIllini- Yep, take a look at KMP/LINE. Same thing. Cash is crap right now.
ReplyDeleteWait. I'm confused. Mom and Pop don't day trade?
ReplyDeleteOnly a few of them have a brokerage account. The upsurge in yield products today is more likely the traders anticipating better things ahead for yield products. Comprehende? You probably do more than me but neither you or I focus much on such products.
ReplyDeleteSFD - The demand for hogs is going straight up with Chinese orders.
ReplyDelete"Pretty much every trading platform, except yours it seems"
ReplyDeleteDon't go with BACML, I think they're trying to set their customers up for failure.
I can dig it though, b/c I'm way ahead of them anyway and on to their ways. If they provided service, I wouldn't trust it. Yeah, they slow me down but they can't keep me down.
CSCO reporting after hours, need hedging ammunition or risk it?
ReplyDeleteCSCO - Looks like some buyers were showing up in volume, note the green ADX +DI line on this chart is almost 10, that's usually when buyers show up.
ReplyDeleteThe little guys have been running circles around them, have they presented a plan of action aside from just layoffs?
If the economy is recovering, now is a good entry?
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=csco&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p99295968853&a=217994610&r=7736
ummm...aren't we mom and pop?
ReplyDeleteCSCO - Money flow has been flat lately, not down, indicating patient accumulation (in my opinion). RSI(7) (should check the longer others, too, and see if they're below 30) is in accumulation zone, share price is at 2009 low...
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't be surprised to see it retest the 2003 $10 low, if you're willing to endure the pain.
IGOR: If you think you need to hedge CSCO at 14.00 what is really the point of owning it.Insurance premium is going to cut into any possible upside that you are hoping to get with CSCO. Frankly in this environment you probably need to hedge all your positions. Stocks move like every hour is an earnings report. And just because we went up a whole bunch in one hour the all clear signal was not sounded. I said this before, i don't see how CSCO is going to outperform the QQQs and would recommend selling it and rolling it into the QQQS etf Where you will get exposure to APPL, GOOG AMZN and eventually facebook as well as csco and INTL along with the other 80 or so stocks.
ReplyDeleteCP gave me another thought about csco. 10,000 pissed off emploees. How much csco stock do they own? Or put another way How much stock are they going to sell. Maybe not enough to effect a 70 billion market cap, but it is a consideration.
ReplyDeleteCSCO is purely a value play for me at that point. Everybody is so negative about it. But it is still a market leader in the exponentially growing space (think mobile and cloud computing). Does not all this traffic go through CSCO gear. The risk/reward potential is good. I don't see much of the downside but upside can be substantial if things turn positive ( may be $25 target). I don't anticipate such growth with QQQ but I fully understand that CSCO turn around can take a few quarters.
ReplyDeleteWell if CSCO does that in a few quarters (78%) it would dust the QQQS by four or five times. I think it is certainly possible. Good Luck.
ReplyDeletePFF - Heluva volume, I guess someone wanted that divi when it was 18%.
ReplyDeleteINVE - Visa: Goodbye to Mag-Stripe Credit Cards, Hello to Chip Cards.
ReplyDeleteMust see TV. Dylan for Pres
ReplyDeletehttp://www.thereformedbroker.com/2011/08/09/ratigans-rant-heard-round-the-world/
$INDU - We still haven't tested the trendline at 10,500 but we came within 100 points.
ReplyDeleteok, getting back in the saddle for a little 6E trading.
ReplyDeletess 4387, 8 tick stop
ReplyDelete1/3 off 4383
ReplyDeleteadded 5 more cars at 4387
ReplyDeleteman, this thing is coiled, it's going to blow lower, but I'll need to give it room
ReplyDeleteoh wow, that hurt, took me out to the tick, max pain
ReplyDeleteUNREAL! I get taken out to the tick, full stop, and then it blows lower....this is why I hate futures trading.
ReplyDeleteI gotta have a beer, it's 5 pm somewhere
ReplyDelete4377, sick how much difference a single tick can make
ReplyDeletethat single tick kept me out of a 30 tick winner
ReplyDeleteTOF, you want to talk about bad timing...
ReplyDeleteTransfers in the 4.7 million 401(k) accounts monitored by consultant Aon Hewitt exceeded $1.6 billion on Monday, more than three times the normal level of activity. In a typical day investors make around $300 million to $400 million in 401(k) transfers.
All of the assets moved Monday were taken out of stock funds and invested primarily in bond funds. It was the fifth-highest day of transfer activity since the company began tracking the data in 1997.
Also, re Kass, he is a serial bottom and top caller. Can't remember how many times he said he was "all in" during late 2008 / early 2009. He did call it "a generational buying opportunity" in early March, 2009, but that was after many other such extravagant calls that didn't pan out and he seems to have forgotten.
Be interesting to see the returns on his funds if anyone has access to this. Actually, be great if CNBC showed the returns for all their guests who come on espousing their ideas.
illini,
ReplyDeleteI think energy stocks are the best buy and hold stocks in the market.
Energy demand continues to grow and supply is becoming more and more difficult.
ON the demand side, you've got the western countries whose demand is stable, perhaps growing the GDP, but does not go down a lot even with a slower economy.
In the developing world, you've got China alone adding almost 20 million cars per year, aircraft sales exploding and no slowdown in site. Even if you get a slowdown, these new car owners will still consume gas.
On the production side, oil is getting more and more expensive to produce and conventional fields are on the decline. New production is coming from oil sands, deep water drilling and new technologies to pull oil out of difficult geological structures (like the Bakken). Without $80 or more likely $100 oil, a lot of these projects don't get funded and supply slows and prices go up anyhow.
Energy is my second largest holding (after financials which I am buying because they are cheap and plan to sell on a reversion the mean) and half of my really long terms stocks (ones that I have owned 8 years or more) are oil.
Sure feels to me like we're going to 1,050 first...which would erase the entire bull gain from August 31 of last year.
ReplyDeleteMiners are still not confirming golds move.
ReplyDeleteBelieve it of not, SPX is at it's PP right here.
ReplyDeleteLooks like everyone is watching 1140ish.
ReplyDeleteMark ES 1150 seems to be a key point
ReplyDeleteMark I have the PP as 115.56 on the spy
ReplyDelete115.59 I mean. Fen old eyes
ReplyDeleteDamn, BEXP kicking butt on some upgrades.
ReplyDeleteonly green stocks on watch are energy. Except for soda.
ReplyDeleteRB- Looks like your right. Not sure what's up with mine. I programed them, so maybe this val f's them up. I'll have to look into it. Thanks.
ReplyDeleteBAC - Taking a dirt nap today.
ReplyDeleteOur old friend CREE is lighting it up.
ReplyDeleteDirt nap?
ReplyDeleteBye bye 1140. Can't deal with XLF.
ReplyDeleteI though it was supposr to calm down after the first 30 minutes.
ReplyDelete1140 regained. Wow.
ReplyDeletePlacing a stop on my SPY short from last night at $115.7
ReplyDelete1140. If this level holds, that was a nasty stop sweep.
ReplyDeleteCAC 40 is actually below the close from Monday.
ReplyDeleteWhoa look at Soc Gen (SCGLY)
ReplyDeleteINVE Moving up now.
ReplyDeleteBack retesting. I mean failing the test. Reminds me of 7th grade.
ReplyDeleteNo good. We lost XLE.
ReplyDeletes1 at 112 .78
ReplyDeletethe 6e (euro) is just collapsing, this is going to put major pressure on equities.
ReplyDeleteI keep thinking about how much that one tick stop out cost me, gotta turn the page!
INVE - Visa: Goodbye to Mag-Stripe Credit Cards, Hello to Chip Cards.
ReplyDeleteSounds better than photo check deposit to me...
JB Let go of the trade. Think about all the money stops have saved you. Don't let it effect future trades.Anything can happen. My platitudes taped to the wall that I read after I get RINSED.
ReplyDeleteFuck it just drink beer.
RB - I know you're right, for today I'm shutting off the trading platforms and the second the dear wife is out the door I'm cracking open the beer...great suggestion~
ReplyDeletesurprise, GS is selling the ES
ReplyDelete18.25 is the target on the downside
ReplyDeleteTax reform coming? I'm hearing commentary about it more each day.
ReplyDeleteBullish energy report.
ReplyDeleteJB I thought for a minute you said, "MY 2nd wife." LOL. I was thinking if he has so many wives why don't one of them get him a beer. I am not trading anymore either. We will miss a lot of volatility and end up in the same place for tomorrow.:)
ReplyDeleteRB - I got a house full of lazy women and not a single one would ever hop up and grab me a beer
ReplyDeleteINVE- Did a quick check. Not sure what this one is about. I'll take a look tonight. Looks like today's move appears to be about insider buying.
ReplyDeleteSoc Gen says nothing wrong here...carry on. Where have we heard this before?
ReplyDeleteGold $1776
ReplyDeleteOK, Dimon is here with the bus. Gotta hop. Fill you guys in later.
ReplyDeleteXLE - Didn't OPEC cut production? I heard a rumor, not confirmation or DD though.
ReplyDeleteCopper now down at May low's and just above last December lows.
ReplyDeleteOil supply report was really bullish on the price of oil and the fact that the US economy is not really slowing.
Hard to reconcile the two data points.
INVE - I worked on a similar project at "secret" (no sign on building) location near Gilroy for Intel. Crazy hours with hyperventilating and nervous engineers (typical Intel mode of operation, armchair engineering group), LOL.
ReplyDeleteIntel can mass produce this chip for over 10 years now. This was a production size facility, not a skunkworks lab. It's easy to make, simple and cheap.
Unless they shut line down for some reason, I doubt it though, they were very tight-lipped.
INVE maybe holds patent? Not sure what special thing INVE might have that Intel, etc. can't already do.
Why are the bank CEO's all out touting business? Smells like a rat.
ReplyDeleteFrance - Today is supposedly about concern over France's credit rating.
ReplyDeleteWatching the Jamie Dimon turn in BGU now...
ReplyDeleteclosed my SPY short at $113.85 from $118.1 and went long.
ReplyDeletestop at $109
ReplyDeleteVery weird action today...the breadth chart is showing slowly worsening breadth, yet advance-decliners are slowly improving.
ReplyDelete"Why are the bank CEO's all out touting business?"
ReplyDeleteI haven't heard much from bankers in a year or more, are they still in business?
http://www.tweetdeck.com/twitter/DougKass/~maTLV
ReplyDelete"Some possible modest signs of stability are emerging: The drop in gold, the generally better relative action of high octane (beta) stocks (that led the upside yeseterday) and renewed chest thumping of bears in the media."
This Kass guy is unbelievable...classic example of taking a position and then finding a reason to support it rather than the other way around...we've all been there...
BB > Yep I noticed that copper is acting weak as well, which ain't a great sign.
ReplyDeleteOh I know, bankers must've gone on an extended vacation after transferring their losses onto the public debt coffer.
ReplyDeleteHow's that robing Peter to pay Paul program working?
Interesting that the Canadian market popped into the green today around noon and now trying to get back above. Benefiting from high oil and gold and lower dollar, but often Toronto will lead New York up.
ReplyDeleteTOF,
ReplyDeleteWonder how he figures its a drop in gold when it is still up $35 for the day? A 2 hour drop means the market has met it's low for the year?
I think the best news of the day really is the oil inventory numbers showing a big drop and the corresponding rise in oil prices - shows the economy is not falling off a cliff.
SRS - This puppy has been flying, hasn't it? More to go?
ReplyDeleteBB - Kass is the ultimately schizo trader in my opinion...he keeps making bottom and top calls, doesn't use stops, etc. I can only imagine what his P&L looks like. Probably the reason he writes for a living and goes on TV so much...he's gotta pay for those losses somehow.
ReplyDeleteLVS is VERY strong, relatively speaking.
ReplyDeleteAnyone here do arb spreads? This one looks interesting. From DJ News:
ReplyDeleteKinetic Concepts, Inc. (KCI), APAX Partners, Consortium (Private)
Premium offered: $5.77 or 9.20%
Acquirer: Apax Partners, Consortium
Target: KCI
Offer per share: $68.50 cash
Value of outstanding common equity: $4,914,875,000
Target share price: $62.73
Acquirer share price: N/A
Expected closing: 2nd Half 2011 9/30/2011
Annualized gain: 65.19%
So
ReplyDeleteAlso this one because BHP is a big company that will fulfill and I don't think the price of gas will collapse from this point:
ReplyDeletePetrohawk Energy Inc. (HK), BHP Billiton Corp. (BHP)
Premium offered: $0.40 or 1.04%
Acquirer: BHP
Target: HK
Offer per share: $38.75 cash
Value of outstanding common equity: $11,721,100,000
Target share price: $38.35
Acquirer share price: $76.23
Expected closing: 3Q 2011 8/31/2011
Annualized gain: 18.13%
Well screw me.....put half my cash to work yesterday. At lest 30% of that was into miners....that is something i guess. Went against my better judgement. Should have know that rally would be faded.
ReplyDeleteillini, I do arb trading, but there really haven't been many decent opportunities this year - either too risky or too high of a spread.
ReplyDeleteThe only one I have now is GRFS and it's not a pure arb play, but a play on the spread between the class "b" share and the "a" share.
I will take a look at the 2 you mentioned. They both seem good, but have to do some more digging.
Thanks for highlighting these - I'd kind of forgotten about arb plays as they have been so poor this year. I made a lot of money off arbs in 2008 as the spreads really widened out as the market got poor. The nice thing about them is your return is fairly secure, the bad thing is that they don't move as well as the market when the market turns, but I find them to be a nice portfolio diversifier.
You probably know this, but a good web site for arb trading is:
http://www.mergerinvesting.com/pendingmergers
Lots of insider purchases guys.
ReplyDeleteCompany Symbol Company Name Insider Num Shares Price per Share Amount ($) Transaction Date
AKS AK STEEL HOLDING CORP WAINSCOTT JAMES L 25000 7.96 199,030 Aug 09
ZEUS OLYMPIC STEEL INC MARABITO RICHARD T 1500 20.75 31,118 Aug 26
ZEUS OLYMPIC STEEL INC POTASH ESTHER 500 24.79 12,395 Aug 05
ZEUS OLYMPIC STEEL INC MANSON RICHARD A 80 24.49 1,959 Aug 05
ZEUS OLYMPIC STEEL INC SIEGAL MICHAEL D 1500 24.79 37,185 Aug 05
ZEUS OLYMPIC STEEL INC WOLFORT DAVID A 1000 21.35 21,350 Aug 08
ZEUS OLYMPIC STEEL INC MARABITO RICHARD T 2000 24.79 49,580 Aug 05
VIX buy signal from "Slope of Hope"
ReplyDeleteA Vix Buy Signal (for equities) is technically issued when the Vix drops back within the bollinger bands after closing above the upper bollinger band for at least one day. The buy signal has to be confirmed however by a lower close the following day as well. The last signal at the end of July wasn't confirmed and another has now been generated and is awaiting confirmation today. I'm doubtful about this one being confirmed as well but we'll see how that goes today:
illini,
ReplyDeletere HK, I think they are being optimistic with an Aug. 31 close date. the web site I mentioned has a year-end close and annualized return of 4%. I started going through the SEC filings and the initial close date is set for Aug 19th, but it says it will be extended as required for government approvals. The end date really affects the annualized ROI.
For KCI, they've filed a preliminary proxy, but no dates are entered yet. The merger web site has a close date of Nov 15th, giving an annualized return of 12%.
There are some better looking arb returns though, so I am going to spend some more time going through these and I'll let you know if I buy any of them.
"closed my SPY short at $113.85 from $118.1 and went long."
ReplyDeleteYou are good, TOF!
Looks like we got our test of Monday's low today, and it succeeded. So we may get a few up days in a row now -- wouldn't it be a nice change, eh? :)
I hope ECU hangs around this low level until Monday, when I'll have my next paycheck and will be able to buy more of it at this amazing price. After I had decided that I'll hold ECU for more than a year, any drop becomes a cause for celebration and adding more shares as opposed to a cause for panic and selling shares. Investment mentality is great in this market!
ReplyDeleteInteresting article for gold bulls:
ReplyDeleteAs gold prices climb, Indian buyers hold back
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/international-news/global-exchange/international-roundup/as-gold-prices-climb-indian-buyers-hold-back/article2122982/
I have to believe jewelry demand is suffering due the high price of gold and if the Indian wedding season is week, you're basically counting on investment demand to keep the price of gold up and I think that is a bad bet.
I just added 700 more shares of CADC to my position here at $1.63, completing the investment of the money I got from selling MITK at $7.25. Now I have 5700 shares of CADC and no MITK...
ReplyDeleteInsider buys of note w/ a potential snapback chart:
ReplyDeleteAKS
PCX
ACI
ZEUS
DXPE
CNO
JBHT
MF
TEX
Picking up a few of these here and there.
Pill - I still think SVM's a good entry here, if you want more miners.
ReplyDeleteAnd I could be wrong. Large position for me and an too early entry but I have confidence.
BB Canada -- I think the impact of jewelry buyers on gold is noise in comparison to the tonnes of gold (literally tonnes) being bought by central banks now.
ReplyDeleteBB - thanks for the reply on arbs and the website. In fact, the potential gains for KCI and HK have weakened intraday as the stock prices have climbed a bit.
ReplyDeleteWill copper close over $3.97? I'd like to see that happen.
ReplyDeleteJesse- I thought EMC picking up another 1M shares of VMW was note worthy.
ReplyDeleteDavid,
ReplyDeleteKitco has a good chart showing where gold goes at http://www.kitco.com/charts/CPM_charts.html
From 2000 - 2009, real demand fell from 100 million ounces to 70 million and investment demand through ETF's increased from 0 to 50 million.
The problem with it is only goes to 2009 and I also think things have changed a lot since then. I don't think investment demand is high enough to absorb all of the gold being mined and you so need some real demand to get gold off the market. Almost every investor I talk to who owns gold has a plan to sell it before it comes back down, so the risk is if too many people try to do this at the same time and flood the market.
GMO/SVM- Pissed I didn't grab at least SOME this AM.
ReplyDeleteCP, I agree. Copper over $4.00 makes me much more confident in the world economy.
ReplyDeleteSWC - Some upturn
ReplyDelete"Looks like we got our test of Monday's low today, and it succeeded. So we may get a few up days in a row now -- wouldn't it be a nice change, eh? :) "
ReplyDeleteDavid - I'm thinking we see a small bounce perhaps until tomorrow and then we sell down to 1,100 which will mark a short term bottom (to be broken a few months down the road of course :( )
Unfortunately, the rally most likely won't last very long in large part because of the obvious:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cnbc.com/id/38451750
Italy and Spain are now up 35% in the past week or two...I remember seeing their spreads at 280
Thanks Mark-
ReplyDeleteSaw the EMC buy. I typically discount 10%+ holder buys unless its a C-level employee. Its also a little extended here. I'm still screening for insider buy stocks that are the most extended to the downside.
We are on pace for the first Vix buy signal since the collapse. I'll be watching the Vix closely into the close.
ReplyDelete10 day put call ratio is hitting extremes above 1.22. Prior 2 year peaks were 1.15. P/C ratios are not updating on stockcharts. Anybody have put call figures for today?
If we trade up a little from here into the close, we could get a big rally starting tomorrow.
2-3 year bear market officially started, but we should get 2-4 week rips here and there.
Pretcher on CNBC next. 'Once in a life time opp. for bears.'
ReplyDeleteGet ready to Buy, Buy, Buy!!!
Too funny, the second Precther comes on the mark pops up.
ReplyDeleteHis 3rd high - being Gold might be accurate
ReplyDeleteDavid - There's a chance, though, that the drop down to 1,100 yesterday was indeed the low...it would be a perfect setup to trap people...a drop below the low of the correction, then a snap back higher, which traps longs yet again as it pulls back hard like it is doing today.
ReplyDeleteIf this is the case, I think a rally to 1,250 and possibly up to the 200 DMA wouldn't be out of the question over the next couple of months.
Kyle- I think he's high ;)
ReplyDeleteSPY- Little push here. Got to be Precther.
ReplyDeleteOf course...bigger picture I think the market showed it's hand these past two weeks and we will unfortunately be heading lower and lower.
ReplyDeleteIntraday cup forming on RES right @ R2 with volume.
ReplyDeleteSPX - Looks like a multi-month HnS playing out to me w/ LH shoulder (July 09 - July 10) w/ neckline being the support range 1025-1075 that needs to be challenged before the bounce
ReplyDeleteSPY- And back down again. Man this is trying.
ReplyDeleteIt all depends on todays close if yesterday was the bottom, obviously. If we close above 1,120 (preferably like 1,140) then this is just backing and filling right here before moving higher for the next few weeks.
ReplyDeleteKaas bought GS today @ 114.
ReplyDeleteCDS are higher for MS than BAC.
ReplyDeleteBGU - clean bounce off of S1 (48.48)
ReplyDeleteLook at GS guys.
ReplyDeleteCopper closed $3.89, no confirmation there...
ReplyDeleteLooks like T' real rates aren't going positive before today's close.
SVM, WFR, GSS, TQNT, RBY, DNN small positions all but working --- Although I hate this swing trading crap...
ReplyDelete"Look at GS guys."
ReplyDeleteThat's just incredible, I can't understand that. GS is an insider and I thought they were always on the right side of the trade.
They should be making huge money in this market, and traders sell it off! What's that all about, do they really have any chance whatsoever of blowing up?
Are we going for a test of the DJIA 38.2 retrace at 10,465.11
ReplyDeleteLooks like a no go for today.
ReplyDeleteSPX 1025-1075
ReplyDeleteCall me crazy but bought another 10k worth of oakbx at the close. evens out yesterday a bit.
ReplyDeleteClosed above 1120.
i think at 110 Warren is underwater on his GS purchase...seems to me he bought around 118. Cant remember for sure
ReplyDeleteGold is the sleeping reserve currency awakening from a deep slumber?
ReplyDeletethe only good thing from today is that the lows from monday held...
ReplyDeleteDavid and I were talking about a sign for a bottom about 10% higher than current levels....at 1,250 or so. What we were saying we should wait for is a break below the support levels, then a move above, and then a test back down at the support levels. Well, if 1,120 was that support level then this would be the setup we were looking for. Obviously, a close below 1,120 would negate this.
in the longer term picture, in general after a move like this we should see a pretty sizable rally, possibly as high as the 200 DMA (which will now begin falling for the first time since it turned north in 2009), before continuing the selloff. the european disaster is the reason for this....but the debt problems in general are the reason for this big bad bear market resurfacing.
GDX closed up 3.28%....only good moveI made yesterday, at least in the short term. Got longer today.
ReplyDeleteGS - Didn't Warren sell his GS purchase a month or three ago? I thought someone noted that...
ReplyDeleteAh, so THIS was the retest of Monday's low. Well, tomorrow will be the all-important day. If the market goes up tomorrow, even a little, then it will most likely signify the start of a multi-day rebound rally. If the market goes down tomorrow, then there won't be a rebound rally until we drop much lower, like in S&P 990.
ReplyDeleteYeah, pretty sure GS bought him out. GS has reduced their trading desk due to issues from the financial crisis, so don't they are so much on the inside anymore.
ReplyDeleteGood results from 2nd favourite CSCO tonight. Let's hope the outlook is at least reasonable. Stock trading up in afterhours.
======
Cisco Systems (CSCO) this afternoon reported fiscal Q4 revenue and earnings per share ahead of analysts’ estimates.
Revenue in the three months ended in June rose to $11.2 billion, yielding EPS of 40 cents per share.
Analysts on average were estimating $10.97 billion and 38 cents per share.
For fiscal Q1, analysts have been modeling $10.96 billion and 39 cents per share.
Cisco shares are up 25 cents, or 1.9%, at $13.99.
Daid,
ReplyDeleteGot to be a bounce sometime. just hope it is not after down another 10% or 20%!
TSX (Toronto) up 0.75% today with 7 of 10 sectors up including financials. TSX is generally a "risk-on" market and doesn't get hit with the big programmed trading like the US, so the fact it is up is often a good sign that it could have just been a program or big hedge fund liquidation in the US today.
David- Can you make it 999 just for yucks?
ReplyDeleteMarkW said...
ReplyDeleteKyle- Isn't Dicker primarily an energy trader.
August 8, 2011 6:22 AM
Yea -- Ur right. He's probably just a dumb-ass oil trader who doesn't know anything. I should just go back and delete the comment. Sorry man...
thx BB - I'm not going to be able to dial into the con call but I will follow on the live blog. my main areas of interest are: crop spending around cloud/data center, how fast are they getting out of nonperforming biz and any sense as to overall IT spend trends
ReplyDeletelink to the csco earnings blog:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/11217028/1/cisco-earnings-live-blog.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA
I just looked at the 1-month intraday chart of S&P at google, and I saw an accelerated decline into abyss followed by a lot of volatility between 1100 and 1160 during the 3 sideways days (if we exclude the initial gap down on Monday). So I think the chances of 1100 being the bottom are high, and I say that a rebound rally starts tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteDavid - If we break 1,100 then all bets are off and a bear market like 1937/38 is very much in play. That market dropped 40% with nary a bounce.
ReplyDeleteWarren- no inside info there i'm sure. Figures.
ReplyDeleteThis is either a short term bottom or midpoint consolidation of a quick measured move target of 950ish (1350-1150). Today's late day push off the moving averages suggests the latter.
ReplyDeleteOne look at a chart like EWZ suggests the overall move is just getting started.
One just needs to look at VIX, QID, EEV, BGZ etc. which are classic breakout plays that we would all be salivating over if we were able to see past their "evil" ticker symbols.
In the meantime, I'll be closely watching the VIX for a bollinger buy signal.
Kyle- Not at all. I was just trying to see if it was who I was thinking off. I actually added him to my Tweets list!
ReplyDeleteHere's the chart I'm looking at pointing to a destination of 10,500:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.flickr.com/photos/58908945@N07/6030367964/
got to love America:
ReplyDeleteIn spite of the market's plunge, Henry Blodget thinks equity valuations are still above historical norms, when measured using earnings adjusted for business cycle shifts in profit margins.
How the HELL is this joker not in prison?
Jesse - I totally agree...I think a whole helluva lot of people are not expecting a replay of 2008 so close to it yet the more selling we get without significantly sustainable bounces, the higher the odds are that we are not anywhere near the bottom. I was one of those dip buyers 10% higher but I capitulated and moved completely to cash yesterday and I'm only doing very tiny trades at this point (i.e., 5% or so of total portfolio invested). I don't have any conviction from the long side and can see a scenario where we just keep falling and falling as we get more and more dip buyers along the way saying it can't get any lower, only to watch it go lower. Also, shorts are out of the market at this point as they are so scared of these nasty bounces so the odds of short covering bounces that turn into sustainable rallies are getting lower and lower as well.
ReplyDeleteIt's a vicious cycle at this point. We really need 1,120 to hold or else I believe we are going significantly lower.
Mark - OK man. My mistake. Just misread the intent. There's so much 'Hot' stuff flying around. I was wrong. Now I'm really Sorry -- :-)
ReplyDeleteCisco to save the day? Look at that pop on the call! What did Chambers say?
ReplyDeleteJB- Cause no one knows who he is??
ReplyDeleteSPX - If this 1020-1050 'Neckline' doesn't hold then it's a LONG way down....
ReplyDeletehttp://www.screencast.com/t/TSxglEirO2qN
NYUGrad (no 91709)on CC captured what I believe...
ReplyDeletehttp://bit.ly/qkwcMX
I believe the descending range is now in play
Kyle - Yep 1050 seems pretty certain if 1,120 doesn't hold. That makes sense since that is the point that the rally from QE2 started from.
ReplyDeleteMany markets in Europe are down greater than 20% so I don't see how we don't follow. We're "only" down 18%
Kyle, Thanks for chart!
ReplyDeleteI don't see your neckline, but I'll take you're word on that to the bank. ;)
For all the hoopla about how everyone in the world hates America so much, I'm quite surprised at how much faith they're putting into the $USD.
ReplyDeletecp - Here's a chart from Landry (last year) when I was listening to him regularly (so it's a little dated). He remarked at the time that it looked 'ominous' and it does...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.screencast.com/t/yUELuzt9
cp - can you get the NYUGrad chart?? He showed it better than I did. That 990'ish level going back to 1998-2002 and the 1010 spike down at end of June 2010. It looks like there may be a support band in that 1020-1050 range (looking at end of 2001 too) but WTF knows...
ReplyDeleteKyle - I saw something I think from Ritholtz that made a lot of sense to me:
ReplyDelete"S&P500 expectations of $94 for 2012 at a 15 multiple gives us a prior price target of $1400 on the SPX. If that falls only $10 to $84, and the multiple contracts to 12, we are at 1020. And if we really get whacked, and earnings drop to $75 at a 10 P/E, well, you can do the math."
tof - that's what Pisani was talking about on cnbc today - that these forward earnings numbers are 'mushy' given their exposure to Europe as well as the domestic economy and if Asia softens too...
ReplyDeleteWell, at least gold keeps shooting up, at 1808 already...
ReplyDeleteSilver was busy catching up with gold today:
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$gold:$silver&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p99295968853&a=217994610&r=7736