"Put me in Kass' camp. The low is in and we're cleared for takeoff."
I agree, and I stand by the comment I made this afternoon:
"I just looked at the 1-month intraday chart of S&P at google, and I saw an accelerated decline into abyss followed by a lot of volatility between 1100 and 1160 during the 3 sideways days (if we exclude the initial gap down on Monday). So I think the chances of 1100 being the bottom are high, and I say that a rebound rally starts tomorrow."
In other words, I believe the market has already digested the bad news it got so far, and all those who were ready to sell at the first sight of such news have already sold. Therefore, unless we get hit by a fresh set of bad news from Europe overnight, the market should rally tomorrow.
It's the way the market works...It's Longs wanting to protect gains and when it declines, shorts wanting to protect gains. As Vad says, that's what gives rise to these patterns...
I remember the case well from the dot com days. I figure he knows too much and has been granted the booby prize of a Yahoo job from Merrill or where ever he mixed his potions previously.
So is Ben just biding his time, is the market calling his bluff and taking their marbles home, or is the plan to make it hurt real bad so as to get the QE they(Banksters) so badly need?
I may have to revise my previous take on the meaning of guaranteed low rates, I don't think Ben defined what that ("low" rates) means, did he?
Tough day... although we're only 30 pts under the H&S+DT target, which was 1150. One more washout of 2% before we cross that rickety bridge, fall through our a$$holes and break our frickin' neck.
2nd_ave said... If I had to guess, DJIA 9k might be a bottom. August 8, 2011 5:11 PM
That would put it 950-975 on $SPX. The spikes might go that low, but a RH shoulder bounce might go up to the 50wk-sma or 100wk-sma, but looking at the 2007-08 formation, 1225 might be the top-out for those as these MA's decline.
If we hold 1120 on thhe close then that's a good spot to trade from...trade only though because trend is down and we're under the 200 dma...until then we're prone to have nasty selloffsif we rise at all. Having said that if u like a secular growth story then no reason to not hop in...mitk and mmyt and ibkc (yes a bank but also a great company that is poised for major growth, albeit headwinds coming from 2 more yrs of 0 pct int rates are a headwind) come to mind
-The market's job is to think we are not entering a the first phase of a long-term bear market.
-10 day put call ratio closed at a 3 year high 1.22.
-VIX will open below and close below its upper bolinger band of 41.84 (major buy signal)
-We should see a 1000-1300 quick retracement for the Dow. fdx
-S+P futures are at 1135 right now per Bloomberg. My guess is they strengthen. My guess is we see a nasdaq +50 open. SPX 1140 is key.
Waterfall pattern stocks supported by multiple insider buying over the past few days would rally the most in such a scenario. Insiders are buying a ton. Mostly resource stocks.
ACI PCX AKS ZEUS DXPE TEX TIE MF RAIL CNO JBHT
If we don't rally hard tomorrow, the shit will hit the fan.
Great article RoBear. Makes me re-think my stance entirely. Part of me thinks that if Institutions know we are re-entering the multi-year total collapse of the U.S. stock market, we will no longer have the patience for retracement rallys to slowly exit positions. If institutions know where the ultimate bottom is, they may not wait for ordinary retracements.
One more from an old trader who trades futures from weekly chart.How often do we look at those? Peter Brandt Last Sunday. Warning very bearish outlook. One problem with being a short-term trader (especially a day trader) is that one comes to expect reversion to the mean on an ever and ever shorter-term time frame. Short-time-frame traders can lose grasp of what a “run-away train” market is like. Mke no doubt about it – bear markets are vicious. They are relentless. They redefine the concept of “oversold.” A warning to you short-term traders who persist on trying to catch the bounce – you will end up with bear claw gashes all over your body....Many of you may say…”But the federal government would not let that happen today. They have tools to prevent such a decline.” I would say this…”It is precisely the tools of the Fed that have made this present bear market possible.” The Fed is out of tricks. They cannot stimulate growth with any amount of capital infusion. They cannot lower rates from near zero. Raising rates would kill whatever geese are still alive. Congress and the public have no appetite for further debt. The government cannot tax an economy that is so precarious. Cutting federal programs will never occur with our form of tenured elected officials. Let’s just admit it – theU.S. economy is ripe for hard times ....Historically, all major bear markets have returned the broad averages to their book value per share. Based on the current book values, the DJIA would then return to 4,709, the S&P 500 to 617. My final words to novice and aspiring traders is to NOT underestimate the power of a real bear market. This bear is hungry. Don’t become an appitizer. I followed some of the discussion stream on various onlines communities this past week and was flabergasted at the desire by people to catch a bounce.
Jesse he has been right for two weeks, but he has been wrong many times on individual calls. He plays H+S after all, but since he has survived trading futures for 35 years. I will listen to what he says. He does admitt when he is wrong quickly which is nice for these stock gurus.
But anyway, isn't someone out there saying they can extract lithium from seawater? I think I read this somewhere, not sure if it's credible but I think it turned me off of lithium.
Maybe uranium is beat down far enough to warrant looking at?
In the past two weeks my following has doubled. This means that it is probably time to stop following me, and start fading me. That is the way it works, folks. A hot hand one day turns cold the next.
So true, good reason not to add to a losing position but listen to prices instead and just take it off. I had no idea it would be so tricky trying to find good exits and entries till I started trying... Then when I do find one that's working, it tanks on me in a heartbeat.
Take profits, I guess, even buy and hold gets nowhere.
You must be thinking of dilithium; as Scotty used to say in every episode: "We've got no power captain, all the crew's been snortin' the dilithium crystals." ;)
FRO - I guess these guys are hosed, considering the tar sands are producing so much crude.
Imagine that operation, digging sand with excavators and throwinf it in a reclaimer. Then you've got to move that sand somewhere, presumably where it came from. And they place electric heaters in the formation they're digging to heat it enough for the oil to soften. Sounds like a hugely destructive process. Those sands must be heavily saturated.
My Day trading, swing trading style gets chopped to pieces in this market. I will sit it out until a direction is more pronounced. I have been stopped out of shorting the VXX four times. First stop out was 25.11 last week. It closed around 35 today. I was up $2.50 yesterday at the close only to get stopped out at break even. That hurt the worst because i almost took profits. Who knows I might be shorting tomorrow.
Did you know there is actually a sand shortage in Canada? I met a guy who is a geologist that worked for a sand exploration company. He told me there is a considerable lack of sand in many areas of Canada and cement companies contract his company to find it. BB was that some Canadian pulling my leg at the crap table? I can be gullible.
TOF, Hussman has been market-neutral since the summer of 2009. I haven't. So obviously, I am not in his camp. Neither is anyone we discuss here -- who else do you know who is market-neutral?
In fact, all my money is invested right now (plus 25K borrowed on credit cards), with no downside hedges, and no more buying power left in any of my accounts. How much longer can I get?
I wish I had been market neutral like Hussman since the start of 2011 -- then I would have gone all-in into ECU *right now* and would have made a killing in a couple of years.
I'm back to 65% long, after doing some buying, may need to keep buying if we keep going lower, or I can just spend more $$$ since I have no income that will, in effect, increase my % invested in equities
Woke up at 5am to see the massive pre-market spike and to do some major buying. I see Europe negative and trending down. I see SPY negative and hopping all over the place.
I'm quite literally shocked. Speechless. Back to bed for me.
As I write this, I see SPY spiking positive. Wait. Now its all the way back down 10 seconds later. Simply amazing to watch. I'm sure by the time I re-awaken, we'll have 2nd's +500 opening.
haven't hear of a sand shortage in Canada. Maybe out west in the energy patch where they are building like crazy. In Ontario where I am, we've got loads of gravel pits that also produce sand.
Copper hanging in there pretty well this morning at $3.98, but the equity futures have taken a bit of a hammering due to rumours about French banks.
Thought it was interesting that I read 3 stories on how this decade could be like the 1930's last night - typically a sign that people are getting too negative.
Let's get all the potential bad news on the table - French Banks, sure why not. Get people who would sell on this out of the market.
S&P Futures moving back up - good. Gold moving down - good, fear is reducing. Copper moving up - good, people seeing economic growth. Earnings reports - I had about 8 of my stocks report in the last 2 days and every single one was good to excellent with only some minor disappointments.
Mark > I'm keeping things VERY small...I only have 8% of my portfolio in this trade...rest is cash. I do NOT trust anything at this point...though I'm thinking way too many people are hoping for higher prices to get out or short.
Is gold done? At the least I'm anticipating some consolidation, especially in light of the margin advance.
Governmental debt and a solution still preside from my perspective, meaning I still believe the trend is up or at least fairly flat following the fear facing new followers of the funny metal.
Perhaps someone is trying to confuse the market. If so, wonder why?
Take gains off PM's and place them onto the next elevator?
ha Mark...don't worry man. I have my stops in place...a $3 move on a short at $113.5 isn't a portfolio killer, even if I was at 100% invested. If we go below 1090 then I will get 100% short
Mark > I'm also definitely looking at things that I like from the long side. I'm only going to stick to internet type names as those have long term secular trends behind them. I'm definitely liking MMYT...
Do any of you guys follow MMYT at all? I'm trying to get some insight on this thing. I see an internet company growing 50%+ annually with a HUGE market opportunity in front of it, yet the stock is a DOG. Maybe it's just a valuation thing as on an earnings basis it's trading at about 100 times earnings. But if they grow 50% annually for the next few years, which is definitely possible given their leadership position in online travel in India + internet use only at 8% of total population in India, then I could see earnings absolutely exploding over the next several years...I think the line in the sand on the stock is the IPO price of $14, but who the hell knows. I think I'll be slowly buying into this one...
1141.50 is the key level on the ES today, according to MP, we hold above there then we will be creating a new value area and I will go long, need to see a few candles above that area, and need trin and pa confirm
By Mark Gongloff So Italy and France are banning short-selling after the close of trading today, according to news reports.
Such bans are intended to calm markets and stop the bears from mauling bank and other stocks. How well do they work?
Let's have a look at this handy chart David Ader at CRT Capital suggested we draw, which offers a nice lesson in how well short-selling bans work.
The chart shows the S&P 500 from September 2008 to March 2009 . Click the chart to see a gigantic version of it.
Do you see that little false peak over near the left side of the chart? That's Sept. 19, 2008 , the day Christopher Cox at the SEC put down the Sudoku puzzle for a minute and decreed that naked short-selling was henceforth going to be banned.
The market rallied for all of one day before plunging back into the abyss.
The big change in CSCO is they've come to realize they are not a fast growth company anymore and are starting to restructure accordingly. They can become an ORCL type company - reasonable growth, controlled costs, return capital to shareholders and the stock should do very well.
TOF, agree short-selling bans are stupid - let the traders and fundamentals drive the stock prices. They're going to go there regardless. Do think they should reinstate the uptick rule though. Things seemed to function better back then or perhaps it was just less program trading.
Banning shorting reduces the odds of short squeezes, reduces liquidity, and makes a less balanced trading environment. It also says to the market: we're scared shitless.
In this rebound, I think it's a good idea to see what is rebounding the best as a sign of what might rebound the best when we ultimately bottom out. EWZ comes to mind.
The reason I think we ultimately could see much more downside, unfortunately, has primarily to do with the bond markets forcing austerity...that's not a good thing for an economy that is filled to its brims with debt and desperately seeking growth. The only thing to stop this is MASSIVE money printing, which I don't think the world's governments are ready for.
All right, just as I thought -- a rally day after a plunge into the abyss and then a lot of volatility at the bottom. I say this is the start of a multi-day rally that will take us at least to 1250 on S&P.
"I do NOT trust anything at this point...though I'm thinking way too many people are hoping for higher prices to get out or short."
I think, TOF, the opposite will occur -- way too many people will sell today (or even short this market) in the fear of another plunge down. Thus, there will be very few sellers left for tomorrow, propelling this rally even higher, and higher, and higher.
Check this out -- the market rallies huge, but VIX is still above 40! This means that people are REALLY scared now, not trusting this rally and using it as an opportunity to load up on puts. We need to get a lot more complacent before this rally ends...
I'm actually thinking about moving my short SPY stop at $118.5 since that would mark a break out above the highs from Tuesday...my entries are bad on the short here as I should have assumed this would happen. I might double my 16% position if we get to $117.5.
commercials are buying the ES, kinda weird action for this time of day. don't know what to make of it, guess it could be in front of a big ramp into close
MITK -- you are the man, Mark! I made a lateral move from MITK into VXX puts on Monday, and the gain I have so far from my VXX puts is much smaller than what I would have had if I just stayed with MITK and not sold it at $7.25...
The 5-day intraday chart of S&P shows a kind of inverted H&S pattern, with the head being the intraday drop on Tuesday below 1100. That pattern should propel S&P at least to 1200, and then the absence of sellers (and a lot of short covering) should easily get S&P to 1250.
hmmm....maybe i should just wait for a re-test of the 125 SPY level to short since the animal spirits sure seem to be back...
A break of trend and below the 200 DMA means to me that the market has turned into a bear...but that doesn't mean we can't have big counter trend rallies...
Added another 4% short SPY at $117.3 as well...so now 24% short at avg of $115.55. My thinking is if this doesn't become more of a counter-trend rally then the trade is low risk...a stop at $118.5 makes it a small loss to my portfolio of 0.6% whereas if the debt woes in Europe continue then it has a chance of dropping the market to 1050 or below.
Opened a small short on the GLD using Put options. Out of the money, so bit of a lottery ticket, but fast rises lead to fast falls and with India not buying, this could lead to reduced demand and I don't think it will take much reduced demand to see a significant drop in price.
BB Canada -- I hope you put only a little money into gold puts, purely for entertainment purposes. It is very dangerous to bet against a straight-line long-term uptrend...
cnbc - Between Kernan and Liesman talking all over James Grant in the morning show and Cramer's yelling and screaming, and Greenberg, this has been quite the day. Wish they would fire some of these morons...
Yeah, it's small and there Oct puts, so I have some time. I think when Gold does fall, it will fall fast (like Silver did - 30% in a week). The problems with charts like GLD is you almost have to try and toptick it because if you miss, it will probably be too late.
I think we get back to the $1350 range fairly quickly as things settle down.
36% short....avg is $116.12. A move to $118.5 would make me lose 0.7% on my portfolio. A gap to 120 would make me lose 1.1%...whereas a move to 105 would give me a 3.8% return.
I'm not willing to take a lot of risks here...I understand the potential for a mean reversion trade here but I still feel like the market showed its hand here and the risks of a waterfall drop are still there despite this massive 7% move up from overnight...
TOF, we already had a powerful upsurge on Tuesday followed by a complete reversal on Wednesday. I think that was enough to shake out the early bottom pickers. The second rally (the one that comes after an initial false rally) is usually for real.
tof - Agree w/ you that we have more work/retests to the downside, but the trend may be up until at least Tues w/ the Merkel-Sarkozy meeting (which of course won't amount to piss)...
David & Kyle - Yep I totally agree with you guys...it was a low risk trade so I'm ok with getting stopped out for a less than 1% portfolio hit if I have to...
Market tagged the 61.8% retracement level of the move from July's highs to this week's lows just now...
It'll be interesting to see how the week ends. There are major hammers w/ big volume on all of the weekly charts. This would suggest we could erase most of the losses by next week!
Seems like traders simply forgot about CADC today. I am disappointed. I used the LAST shekels I had yesterday to buy CADC. Should have bought ANYTHING else instead (say MITK or S&P calls).
Philzilla, gold and gold miners are often strange that way in that when gold moves up the miners don't and visa versa. I think it is because the miners are more correlated with the stock market than the price of gold and usually gold is going up when there is bad news around and stocks are going down.
Unbelievable. Anyone who sold at the close thinking they were selling into strength will end up getting screwed by the last minute pull back. Hold it- it's believable.
What's that, amigo? If I'm wrong, well I've been wrong before. If I'm right, see you later.
ReplyDeleteYou're wrong...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ug2hLQv6WeY
Kyle- LOL!
ReplyDeleteLook, man. I just won't be wrong.
ReplyDeleteHow can they have persuaded so many investors to panic?
ReplyDelete"Why wait any longer for the stocks you love
ReplyDeleteWhen they're standing in front of you?"
I totally agree with this take! Why wait for a correction in gold/silver to buy ECU when it is *already* selling at an amazingly good price?
"Put me in Kass' camp. The low is in and we're cleared for takeoff."
ReplyDeleteI agree, and I stand by the comment I made this afternoon:
"I just looked at the 1-month intraday chart of S&P at google, and I saw an accelerated decline into abyss followed by a lot of volatility between 1100 and 1160 during the 3 sideways days (if we exclude the initial gap down on Monday). So I think the chances of 1100 being the bottom are high, and I say that a rebound rally starts tomorrow."
In other words, I believe the market has already digested the bad news it got so far, and all those who were ready to sell at the first sight of such news have already sold. Therefore, unless we get hit by a fresh set of bad news from Europe overnight, the market should rally tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteIt's the way the market works...It's Longs wanting to protect gains and when it declines, shorts wanting to protect gains. As Vad says, that's what gives rise to these patterns...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.screencast.com/t/z6DthNxo
I recommend everyone with a few minutes time go read BC's story entitled "The Perils Of Joe"
ReplyDeleteThat's more like it, Kyle. Let's paint that right shoulder!
ReplyDeleteBlodget -
ReplyDelete"How the HELL is this joker not in prison?" (JB)
"Cause no one knows who he is??" (Mark)
I remember the case well from the dot com days. I figure he knows too much and has been granted the booby prize of a Yahoo job from Merrill or where ever he mixed his potions previously.
You know the guy, Mark. 'Les' used to refer to him as 'carrot top.'
ReplyDelete'The perils of Joe' should have been titled 'The perils of accepting clients like Joe.'
ReplyDeleteHas anyone ever witnessed a +500-point gap up on the DJIA?
ReplyDeleteI'm hitting the sack. It should be an awesome open.
ReplyDeleteSo is Ben just biding his time, is the market calling his bluff and taking their marbles home, or is the plan to make it hurt real bad so as to get the QE they(Banksters) so badly need?
ReplyDeleteI may have to revise my previous take on the meaning of guaranteed low rates, I don't think Ben defined what that ("low" rates) means, did he?
Tough day... although we're only 30 pts under the H&S+DT target, which was 1150. One more washout of 2% before we cross that rickety bridge, fall through our a$$holes and break our frickin' neck.
2nd_ave said...
ReplyDeleteIf I had to guess, DJIA 9k might be a bottom.
August 8, 2011 5:11 PM
That would put it 950-975 on $SPX. The spikes might go that low, but a RH shoulder bounce might go up to the 50wk-sma or 100wk-sma, but looking at the 2007-08 formation, 1225 might be the top-out for those as these MA's decline.
'The perils of accepting clients like Joe.'
ReplyDeleteNot following that either, maybe I'm just too tired to comprehend much of anything.
Carrot Top? Of course, how stupid of me. But what does a snow boarder have to do with stocks?
ReplyDeleteThe things I have to learn...
On a positive note....WHO WERE THOSE SOCCER PLAYERS IN USA UNIFORM'S TONIGHT!!!!!! I loved it! Go with the kids!!! UAS...USA...USA!!!!
Oh, and 50 SPX points would be nice.
Thank you.
'One more washout of 2% before we cross that rickety bridge, fall through our a$$holes and break our frickin' neck.'
ReplyDeleteYou should write spy thrillers!!!
If we hold 1120 on thhe close then that's a good spot to trade from...trade only though because trend is down and we're under the 200 dma...until then we're prone to have nasty selloffsif we rise at all. Having said that if u like a secular growth story then no reason to not hop in...mitk and mmyt and ibkc (yes a bank but also a great company that is poised for major growth, albeit headwinds coming from 2 more yrs of 0 pct int rates are a headwind) come to mind
ReplyDeleteDavid-i thought u were in hussmans camp?
-The market's job is to think we are not entering a the first phase of a long-term bear market.
ReplyDelete-10 day put call ratio closed at a 3 year high 1.22.
-VIX will open below and close below its upper bolinger band of 41.84 (major buy signal)
-We should see a 1000-1300 quick retracement for the Dow.
fdx
-S+P futures are at 1135 right now per Bloomberg. My guess is they strengthen. My guess is we see a nasdaq +50 open. SPX 1140 is key.
Waterfall pattern stocks supported by multiple insider buying over the past few days would rally the most in such a scenario. Insiders are buying a ton. Mostly resource stocks.
ACI
PCX
AKS
ZEUS
DXPE
TEX
TIE
MF
RAIL
CNO
JBHT
If we don't rally hard tomorrow, the shit will hit the fan.
Geez!
ReplyDelete"The market's job is to make us think we are not entering a bear market."
I meant to add FDX even though it doesn't appear to have any insider buying.
CP and Kyle This guy actually trades H+S patterns.He had this drop pegged. He is a good follow.
ReplyDeletehttp://peterlbrandt.com/next-stopping-point-for-the-sps-is-1000-are-you-a-believer-yet/
Let me add that there's 7 days till op ex. GS would love to juice their depleted books w/ August 20 calls w/ little time premium.
ReplyDeleteGreat article RoBear. Makes me re-think my stance entirely. Part of me thinks that if Institutions know we are re-entering the multi-year total collapse of the U.S. stock market, we will no longer have the patience for retracement rallys to slowly exit positions. If institutions know where the ultimate bottom is, they may not wait for ordinary retracements.
ReplyDeleteInteresting. Let's watch the tape tomorrow.
One more from an old trader who trades futures from weekly chart.How often do we look at those?
ReplyDeletePeter Brandt Last Sunday. Warning very bearish outlook.
One problem with being a short-term trader (especially a day trader) is that one comes to expect reversion to the mean on an ever and ever shorter-term time frame. Short-time-frame traders can lose grasp of what a “run-away train” market is like. Mke no doubt about it – bear markets are vicious. They are relentless. They redefine the concept of “oversold.” A warning to you short-term traders who persist on trying to catch the bounce – you will end up with bear claw gashes all over your body....Many of you may say…”But the federal government would not let that happen today. They have tools to prevent such a decline.” I would say this…”It is precisely the tools of the Fed that have made this present bear market possible.” The Fed is out of tricks. They cannot stimulate growth with any amount of capital infusion. They cannot lower rates from near zero. Raising rates would kill whatever geese are still alive. Congress and the public have no appetite for further debt. The government cannot tax an economy that is so precarious. Cutting federal programs will never occur with our form of tenured elected officials. Let’s just admit it – theU.S. economy is ripe for hard times ....Historically, all major bear markets have returned the broad averages to their book value per share. Based on the current book values, the DJIA would then return to 4,709, the S&P 500 to 617.
My final words to novice and aspiring traders is to NOT underestimate the power of a real bear market. This bear is hungry. Don’t become an appitizer. I followed some of the discussion stream on various onlines communities this past week and was flabergasted at the desire by people to catch a bounce.
Jesse he has been right for two weeks, but he has been wrong many times on individual calls. He plays H+S after all, but since he has survived trading futures for 35 years. I will listen to what he says. He does admitt when he is wrong quickly which is nice for these stock gurus.
ReplyDeleteCopper - I say bring on the red metal bulls.
ReplyDeleteHere's my chart:
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$copper&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p99295968853&a=217994610&r=7736
DBB - Base metals are getting close:
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=dbb&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p99295968853&a=217994610&r=7736
SCCO - Damn, still not back to my $25 target... Maybe it drops as copper flattens for the run.
ReplyDeleteEven I'm not going to play any of this, I'm playing SVM.
PNF - Spy target is 920
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=Spy,PLTADANRBO[PA][D20110808][F1!3!!!2!20]&pref=G
Believe it or not, the charts suggests we could get a +800 to 900 point day tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteSPY - You guys sure this thing's going down further?
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=spy&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p99295968853&a=217994610&r=7736
I get the impression the selloff on Obama's television appearance really bruised his feelings guys, he seems to be in hiding.
ReplyDeleteI don't think we should've been so harsh.
I have been a fan of scco. Do they make anything on their lithium play that was pumped up few years a go.
ReplyDeleteGreenspan this weekend: "Well, we can print."
ReplyDeleteSCCO - Lithium? I didn't know SCCO has lithium.
ReplyDeleteBut anyway, isn't someone out there saying they can extract lithium from seawater? I think I read this somewhere, not sure if it's credible but I think it turned me off of lithium.
Maybe uranium is beat down far enough to warrant looking at?
Last Peter from tonight.
ReplyDeleteIn the past two weeks my following has doubled. This means that it is probably time to stop following me, and start fading me. That is the way it works, folks. A hot hand one day turns cold the next.
CCJ - This chart doesn't speak to me:
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=ccj&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p99295968853&a=217994610&r=7736
"A hot hand one day turns cold the next."
ReplyDeleteSo true, good reason not to add to a losing position but listen to prices instead and just take it off. I had no idea it would be so tricky trying to find good exits and entries till I started trying... Then when I do find one that's working, it tanks on me in a heartbeat.
Take profits, I guess, even buy and hold gets nowhere.
Sorry i was thinking of SQM. Shit, copper, chile, lithium.same thing.
ReplyDeleteSo let's commit heri-keri and go all in on TNA tomorrow morning at the bottom of the intraday reversal, LOL? ;( Not me...
ReplyDeleteYou must be thinking of dilithium; as Scotty used to say in every episode: "We've got no power captain, all the crew's been snortin' the dilithium crystals." ;)
ReplyDeleteFRO - I guess these guys are hosed, considering the tar sands are producing so much crude.
ReplyDeleteImagine that operation, digging sand with excavators and throwinf it in a reclaimer. Then you've got to move that sand somewhere, presumably where it came from. And they place electric heaters in the formation they're digging to heat it enough for the oil to soften. Sounds like a hugely destructive process. Those sands must be heavily saturated.
SQM - Put a knife-catch bid in at $52 on that thing.
ReplyDeleteIt was even being pumped last Friday, I guess buyers couldn't be rounded up:
05-Aug-11 10:07AM 5-Star Stocks Poised to Pop: SQM at Motley Fool
My Day trading, swing trading style gets chopped to pieces in this market. I will sit it out until a direction is more pronounced. I have been stopped out of shorting the VXX four times. First stop out was 25.11 last week. It closed around 35 today. I was up $2.50 yesterday at the close only to get stopped out at break even. That hurt the worst because i almost took profits. Who knows I might be shorting tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteScream at ya later!
ReplyDeleteS&P - Hey, you guys neglected to tell me the RSI(7) moved up through 30 yesterday...
ReplyDeleteDid you know there is actually a sand shortage in Canada? I met a guy who is a geologist that worked for a sand exploration company. He told me there is a considerable lack of sand in many areas of Canada and cement companies contract his company to find it.
ReplyDeleteBB was that some Canadian pulling my leg at the crap table? I can be gullible.
SEE ya CP going to bed.
ReplyDelete"David-i thought u were in hussmans camp?"
ReplyDeleteTOF, Hussman has been market-neutral since the summer of 2009. I haven't. So obviously, I am not in his camp. Neither is anyone we discuss here -- who else do you know who is market-neutral?
In fact, all my money is invested right now (plus 25K borrowed on credit cards), with no downside hedges, and no more buying power left in any of my accounts. How much longer can I get?
ReplyDeleteI wish I had been market neutral like Hussman since the start of 2011 -- then I would have gone all-in into ECU *right now* and would have made a killing in a couple of years.
I'm back to 65% long, after doing some buying, may need to keep buying if we keep going lower, or I can just spend more $$$ since I have no income that will, in effect, increase my % invested in equities
ReplyDeleteWoke up at 5am to see the massive pre-market spike and to do some major buying. I see Europe negative and trending down. I see SPY negative and hopping all over the place.
ReplyDeleteI'm quite literally shocked. Speechless. Back to bed for me.
As I write this, I see SPY spiking positive. Wait. Now its all the way back down 10 seconds later. Simply amazing to watch. I'm sure by the time I re-awaken, we'll have 2nd's +500 opening.
RoBear,
ReplyDeletehaven't hear of a sand shortage in Canada. Maybe out west in the energy patch where they are building like crazy. In Ontario where I am, we've got loads of gravel pits that also produce sand.
Copper hanging in there pretty well this morning at $3.98, but the equity futures have taken a bit of a hammering due to rumours about French banks.
Thought it was interesting that I read 3 stories on how this decade could be like the 1930's last night - typically a sign that people are getting too negative.
Heard this being discussed on one of the morning shows...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.capitalnewyork.com/article/culture/2011/08/2925913/forget-bulls-bears-and-face-palming-brokers-introducing-hooker-under
Let's get all the potential bad news on the table - French Banks, sure why not. Get people who would sell on this out of the market.
ReplyDeleteS&P Futures moving back up - good.
Gold moving down - good, fear is reducing.
Copper moving up - good, people seeing economic growth.
Earnings reports - I had about 8 of my stocks report in the last 2 days and every single one was good to excellent with only some minor disappointments.
1800 - Isn't that a target of 1800 on the inverse H&S with head Mar. 2009...?
ReplyDelete1800- It's a Tequila, no?
ReplyDeleteMarkets all over the place! Somebody please throw a bid the the trading computers in hopes of getting them unstuck!
ReplyDeleteClosed my SPY long from yesterday at $113.9 for a minor profit. Will buy back in over $115
ReplyDeleteCP- Yeah, pretty hard for me to put cash to work here unless I could watch it all day.
ReplyDeleteAre we petering out here already?
ReplyDeleteOr short below $110
ReplyDeleteIs gold done or is this margin related only?
ReplyDeleteVXX coiling. Bull flag.
ReplyDeleteAnother upgrade for BEXP, but it looks a little tired here.
ReplyDeleteSPY needs to hold 112.85ish.
ReplyDeleteActually, I decided to short SPY at $113.1.
ReplyDeleteStill too many people looking for a bounce is my take...stop out above $115.5
Sold out of CSCO that I had bought at $14.93, all 800 shares. Taking a profit while it's there and raising cash, now 33%.
ReplyDeleteGuess I'll have to dig into SD. Lots of news that doesn't seem to be appreciated.
ReplyDeleteAllow me to postulate by saying that current conditions appear very favorable to the buy and hold crowd.
ReplyDeleteOf course the market loves to play with my ability to perceive.
Damn Illini! Nice patience on that one.
ReplyDeleteEDIT:
Stop point on SPY short is $117...crazy how long of a leash you need in this market.
That's a pretty wide stop TOF. How many shares?
ReplyDeletePatience? Ask illini about patience when CSCO hits the forties.
ReplyDeleteAdded to SPY short at $114
ReplyDeleteMark > I'm keeping things VERY small...I only have 8% of my portfolio in this trade...rest is cash. I do NOT trust anything at this point...though I'm thinking way too many people are hoping for higher prices to get out or short.
ReplyDeleteIs gold done? At the least I'm anticipating some consolidation, especially in light of the margin advance.
ReplyDeleteGovernmental debt and a solution still preside from my perspective, meaning I still believe the trend is up or at least fairly flat following the fear facing new followers of the funny metal.
Perhaps someone is trying to confuse the market. If so, wonder why?
Take gains off PM's and place them onto the next elevator?
TOF- Good. I didn't want to have to call your bride ;)
ReplyDeleteCP- That's what's got me worried ST about getting back in GMO. If gold tanks, GMO would probably go with it for a time.
ReplyDeleteha Mark...don't worry man. I have my stops in place...a $3 move on a short at $113.5 isn't a portfolio killer, even if I was at 100% invested. If we go below 1090 then I will get 100% short
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cnbc.com/id/44100348
That's how they get you. Beat the shit out of your positions to the point where you're happy to give them up just before they take off.
ReplyDeleteCSCO - Hey, maybe illini's been to a few carnivals over the years and in so doing has developed a knack for winning stuffed animals.
ReplyDeleteNot all that different from what I'm witnessing before my eyes on the screen.
Let me add, it's been some time since CSCO didn't sell to new lows on an earnings report. Something changed?
Let's keep an eye on HEK now that earnings are over. We all know this is a long term play.
ReplyDeleteMark > I'm also definitely looking at things that I like from the long side. I'm only going to stick to internet type names as those have long term secular trends behind them. I'm definitely liking MMYT...
ReplyDeleteNew HOD.
ReplyDeleteTOF's # is correct. 1150 break is important.
ReplyDeleteLike MMYT also. Back to the IPO.
ReplyDelete"worried ST about getting back in GMO."
ReplyDeleteIt could get cheaper, that's for sure. It's not quite the same predicament as exists with BAC though.
A retest of $3 for either or both of them would provide a safer entry point?
Do any of you guys follow MMYT at all? I'm trying to get some insight on this thing. I see an internet company growing 50%+ annually with a HUGE market opportunity in front of it, yet the stock is a DOG. Maybe it's just a valuation thing as on an earnings basis it's trading at about 100 times earnings. But if they grow 50% annually for the next few years, which is definitely possible given their leadership position in online travel in India + internet use only at 8% of total population in India, then I could see earnings absolutely exploding over the next several years...I think the line in the sand on the stock is the IPO price of $14, but who the hell knows. I think I'll be slowly buying into this one...
ReplyDelete1141.50 is the key level on the ES today, according to MP, we hold above there then we will be creating a new value area and I will go long, need to see a few candles above that area, and need trin and pa confirm
ReplyDeletePicked up PCX, ZEUS
ReplyDeleteAdded last bit to short SPY at $115.1. Avg at $114. Now 12% committed. Stop is above yesterday's high.
ReplyDeletebad action, if you want to go long ES, it's coming right back to upper value 1141.50.
ReplyDeleteI'm going to stop watching it here in a bit
almost full point moves in the es, almost went long 3 times in the past 30 seconds, lots of tails on the 3min candles
ReplyDeleteBot TEX
ReplyDeleteSPX sticking above previous resistance. Could be big.
ReplyDeleteOh my!
ReplyDeletethe 6E is pushing back to its HOD, might be confirming the move in the ES, but after the past couple of weeks I just cannot pull the trigger.
ReplyDelete677.60 would be a nice entry, long, in the TF
Getting close to getting stopped out on my SPY short....I re-set my stop at $116.7
ReplyDeletetof - hang tight, the ES is cracking, TF too
ReplyDeletethe 6E is turning after trying to go back to HD
ReplyDeletecommercials are actively selling the ES right now
By Mark Gongloff
ReplyDeleteSo Italy and France are banning short-selling after the close of trading today, according to news reports.
Such bans are intended to calm markets and stop the bears from mauling bank and other stocks. How well do they work?
Let's have a look at this handy chart David Ader at CRT Capital suggested we draw, which offers a nice lesson in how well short-selling bans work.
The chart shows the S&P 500 from September 2008 to March 2009 . Click the chart to see a gigantic version of it.
Do you see that little false peak over near the left side of the chart? That's Sept. 19, 2008 , the day Christopher Cox at the SEC put down the Sudoku puzzle for a minute and decreed that naked short-selling was henceforth going to be banned.
The market rallied for all of one day before plunging back into the abyss.
Out of my longs for now.
ReplyDeleteStocks that have been hammered down 40-50% should be rallying in the double digits on a day like today. They're not.
ReplyDeleteThe big change in CSCO is they've come to realize they are not a fast growth company anymore and are starting to restructure accordingly. They can become an ORCL type company - reasonable growth, controlled costs, return capital to shareholders and the stock should do very well.
ReplyDeleteTOF, agree short-selling bans are stupid - let the traders and fundamentals drive the stock prices. They're going to go there regardless. Do think they should reinstate the uptick rule though. Things seemed to function better back then or perhaps it was just less program trading.
Banning shorting reduces the odds of short squeezes, reduces liquidity, and makes a less balanced trading environment. It also says to the market: we're scared shitless.
ReplyDeleteIf the market sells off today, we will have mega bull flags for all of the inverse etfs.
ReplyDeleteThis selloff sure seems done...I'm seeing major buying in risky assets...WNC comes to mind.
ReplyDeleteIYT ain't coming along for the ride. Copper has rebounded? More like a flat line in my opinion between $3.85 and $4.05.
ReplyDeleteTheoretically we should definitely re-test the SPY $118 level.
In this rebound, I think it's a good idea to see what is rebounding the best as a sign of what might rebound the best when we ultimately bottom out. EWZ comes to mind.
ReplyDeleteThe reason I think we ultimately could see much more downside, unfortunately, has primarily to do with the bond markets forcing austerity...that's not a good thing for an economy that is filled to its brims with debt and desperately seeking growth. The only thing to stop this is MASSIVE money printing, which I don't think the world's governments are ready for.
optionmonster Jon Najarian
ReplyDeleteYesterday Was Perhaps Wildest Ride In VIX Ever: http://bit.ly/qGFi7w
http://twitter.com/#!/optionmonster
Getting close to getting stopped out of SPY short...is W a bullish pattern? W on ES chart
ReplyDeleteAll right, just as I thought -- a rally day after a plunge into the abyss and then a lot of volatility at the bottom. I say this is the start of a multi-day rally that will take us at least to 1250 on S&P.
ReplyDelete"I do NOT trust anything at this point...though I'm thinking way too many people are hoping for higher prices to get out or short."
I think, TOF, the opposite will occur -- way too many people will sell today (or even short this market) in the fear of another plunge down. Thus, there will be very few sellers left for tomorrow, propelling this rally even higher, and higher, and higher.
Check this out -- the market rallies huge, but VIX is still above 40! This means that people are REALLY scared now, not trusting this rally and using it as an opportunity to load up on puts. We need to get a lot more complacent before this rally ends...
ReplyDeleteGonna give the mkt 3 hours and if it's above 116.7 after that point then I will stop out of my SPY short.
ReplyDeleteDavid - You could definitely be right my man. I don't have a strong read on it...hence my 88% cash...
ReplyDeleteCheers to all CSCO believers!! I agree with 2nd, it will be in the fortys in a couple years. Still keeping all my position of 2500 shares.
ReplyDeleteAmazes me how Gold and miners have no correlation. Good today, as my UXG is green and GLD is off near 3%
ReplyDeleteAdded to my SPY short at $116.3. Avg at 114.6. Now 16% short, 84% cash.
ReplyDelete1178ish seems like next level of resistance.
ReplyDeleteMark - Yea. Grasso was saying he wanted to see a couple of daily closes above 1173 to get bullish.
ReplyDeleteThat's what we need...some levels that make some sense and some understandable transitions between them.
I know everyone see's it, but SODA is interesting here.
ReplyDeleteI'm actually thinking about moving my short SPY stop at $118.5 since that would mark a break out above the highs from Tuesday...my entries are bad on the short here as I should have assumed this would happen. I might double my 16% position if we get to $117.5.
ReplyDeleteKyle- Yep, I'd like to see some sort of base put in we can trade off of. I'm not good it seems trading these really fast markets.
ReplyDeletetof - Yes. That 117.50 SPY @ EOD Tues corresponds to the 1172.53 (~1173) that might serve as a rejection level back down.
ReplyDeleteMITK might go parabolic here. Am I the only one still in it?
ReplyDeleteToo funny..As soon as I post that it shoot's up and falls over. Classic.
ReplyDeleteMark - I'm livid at myself for (a) dip buying last week too early and (b) not buying the dip in MITK on Monday.
ReplyDelete(and probably will be for shorting at $114.6...).
I'm still loaded with MITK, thx again tof!!
ReplyDeletecommercials are buying the ES, kinda weird action for this time of day. don't know what to make of it, guess it could be in front of a big ramp into close
MITK -- you are the man, Mark! I made a lateral move from MITK into VXX puts on Monday, and the gain I have so far from my VXX puts is much smaller than what I would have had if I just stayed with MITK and not sold it at $7.25...
ReplyDeleteThe 5-day intraday chart of S&P shows a kind of inverted H&S pattern, with the head being the intraday drop on Tuesday below 1100. That pattern should propel S&P at least to 1200, and then the absence of sellers (and a lot of short covering) should easily get S&P to 1250.
ReplyDeletehmmm....maybe i should just wait for a re-test of the 125 SPY level to short since the animal spirits sure seem to be back...
ReplyDeleteA break of trend and below the 200 DMA means to me that the market has turned into a bear...but that doesn't mean we can't have big counter trend rallies...
Added another 4% short at $117.4 SPY...
ReplyDeleteBuffett in Fortune - sounding very positive. I think he's right.
ReplyDeleteBuffett: The lower stocks go, the more I buy
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2011/08/11/warren-buffett-buy-stocks/
Added another 4% short SPY at $117.3 as well...so now 24% short at avg of $115.55. My thinking is if this doesn't become more of a counter-trend rally then the trade is low risk...a stop at $118.5 makes it a small loss to my portfolio of 0.6% whereas if the debt woes in Europe continue then it has a chance of dropping the market to 1050 or below.
ReplyDeleteAlso part of reason I'm staying bearish is the spreads in Europe:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cnbc.com/id/38451750
Betcha 100 bucks T3D bought TOT yesterday or today.
ReplyDeleteAdded 4% more SPY short at $116.98.
ReplyDeleteweird how AAPL, PCLN, GOOG are underperforming.
ReplyDeleteBirinyi has to be PISSED.
Added 4% more SPY short at $116.9
ow 32% short SPY at $115.9 avg. Probably should stop here as the hit to the portfolio could be noticeable if we gap up to 1,200 tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteOpened a small short on the GLD using Put options. Out of the money, so bit of a lottery ticket, but fast rises lead to fast falls and with India not buying, this could lead to reduced demand and I don't think it will take much reduced demand to see a significant drop in price.
ReplyDeleteWhy are we being treated to so much Hank Greenberg? I hated him when he was local here.
ReplyDeleteBB Canada -- I hope you put only a little money into gold puts, purely for entertainment purposes. It is very dangerous to bet against a straight-line long-term uptrend...
ReplyDeletecnbc - Between Kernan and Liesman talking all over James Grant in the morning show and Cramer's yelling and screaming, and Greenberg, this has been quite the day. Wish they would fire some of these morons...
ReplyDeleteWow...very impressive move here.
ReplyDeleteYeah, it's small and there Oct puts, so I have some time. I think when Gold does fall, it will fall fast (like Silver did - 30% in a week). The problems with charts like GLD is you almost have to try and toptick it because if you miss, it will probably be too late.
ReplyDeleteI think we get back to the $1350 range fairly quickly as things settle down.
Ok last lot I swear...short SPY at $117.98
ReplyDeleteTOF,
ReplyDeleteEither very brave or just being stubborn.
I'd wish you good luck, but I would really rather the market went up here!
Kyle- It seems to be getting worse. I do like the British guy and the younger dude with the big ears though.
ReplyDeleteSPX touched S2.
ReplyDelete36% short....avg is $116.12. A move to $118.5 would make me lose 0.7% on my portfolio. A gap to 120 would make me lose 1.1%...whereas a move to 105 would give me a 3.8% return.
ReplyDeleteI'm not willing to take a lot of risks here...I understand the potential for a mean reversion trade here but I still feel like the market showed its hand here and the risks of a waterfall drop are still there despite this massive 7% move up from overnight...
I'm surprised Obama didn't go to the A123 factory and claim the contract they got with GM was because of him.
ReplyDeletegood luck tof!
ReplyDeleteTOF- I actually agree with you. Just not interested in trading it is all. That might make you want to cover ;)
ReplyDeleteI agree with you too TOF on the bearish sentiment, but would rather see a move back to 1250+
ReplyDeleteBought a small lot of SPXU at 19.97 stop 19.50 for a trade. Overall 75% long now.
Thjat was purchased on the 1173 line.
ReplyDeleteTOF, we already had a powerful upsurge on Tuesday followed by a complete reversal on Wednesday. I think that was enough to shake out the early bottom pickers. The second rally (the one that comes after an initial false rally) is usually for real.
ReplyDeleteWow, we got through S2.
ReplyDeletetof - Agree w/ you that we have more work/retests to the downside, but the trend may be up until at least Tues w/ the Merkel-Sarkozy meeting (which of course won't amount to piss)...
ReplyDeleteDavid & Kyle - Yep I totally agree with you guys...it was a low risk trade so I'm ok with getting stopped out for a less than 1% portfolio hit if I have to...
ReplyDeleteMarket tagged the 61.8% retracement level of the move from July's highs to this week's lows just now...
My trade didn't last long. We need a powerful follow-thru tommorrow than I can feel good about the last two days worth of getting long.
ReplyDeleteOn a 3 day losing streak playing resistance lines with the inverses.
I swear someone is running those bastards against me. Too many times my stop has been the days low. 19.50 on the SPXU.....you gotta be kidding me.
ReplyDeleteIf this is truly going up from here then the ultimate setup for longs would be a nasty selloff into the close to scare out remaining longs.
ReplyDeleteOr a close at the day's high followed by a gap up above 1200. :)
ReplyDeleteIf we maintain this, I could pull yesterdays buys that I made EOD for the IRA ports for a one day 5%+ gain. It is tempting.
ReplyDeleteIt'll be interesting to see how the week ends. There are major hammers w/ big volume on all of the weekly charts. This would suggest we could erase most of the losses by next week!
ReplyDeleteSeems like traders simply forgot about CADC today. I am disappointed. I used the LAST shekels I had yesterday to buy CADC. Should have bought ANYTHING else instead (say MITK or S&P calls).
ReplyDeleteTOF- RAS.
ReplyDeleteVery true David...that would be a doozy. Just recover all of the losses from the S&P downgrade and fill the gap from Monday.
ReplyDeleteHow in the world is VXX holding up?
ReplyDeleteMark > Check out NCT man...I like that one more than RAS.
ReplyDeleteJesse - speaking of weekly timeframe, I'm showing sma100 of 1183.57 on $SPX...near the current price
ReplyDeleteSold short VXX 33.05
ReplyDeleteVXX will deflate fast. If I could borrow it through my broker I would. Glad to be out of it now.
ReplyDeleteAll right! Looks like our blog here is widely followed -- as soon as I complain about CADC being left behind, it pops up 5 cents! :)
ReplyDeleteWell, I got stopped out of my SPY short trade at $118.7. That didn't take very long.
ReplyDeleteJesse - David is right...people don't trust this market move which is why VXX is holding up. If it gaps up tomorrow it will completely deflate.
NDQ recaptures 2500. Unreal.
ReplyDeleteI closed my short at the high of the day!
ReplyDeleteToo funny.
I agree with David's 956 am post.
ReplyDeletePhilzilla, gold and gold miners are often strange that way in that when gold moves up the miners don't and visa versa. I think it is because the miners are more correlated with the stock market than the price of gold and usually gold is going up when there is bad news around and stocks are going down.
ReplyDeleteDavid - here is the nasty pullback I was telling you about!
ReplyDeleteWe gap higher tomorrow watch.
stopped out 33.20. That was quick.
ReplyDeleteI await Pz's call on the dilemma (faced by many, I would imagine) pointed out in his 1236 pm post. It will be a 'tell.'
ReplyDeleteIn case you're wondering, no way in hell would I sell into today's close. If I had both cash/cojones, I would buy the close.
ReplyDeleteThis is merely profit taking in my mind...
ReplyDeleteI'm holding the line (no sell). BUY BUY BUY.....lol
ReplyDeleteThe ultimate ---- you to market volatility.
ReplyDeleteTraders are watching 1173...probably closes just above
ReplyDeletelogic would dictate a sell on this so I will hold
ReplyDeleteAnother gap up on Friday would clinch the bear trap. Any potential market-moving news releases scheduled for tomorrow morning? Or AH today?
ReplyDeleteWent long SPY at the close just now for a trade...$117.2
ReplyDeleteUnbelievable. Anyone who sold at the close thinking they were selling into strength will end up getting screwed by the last minute pull back. Hold it- it's believable.
ReplyDeletefutures tonight should be really interesting, looks like, at least for today, I won't need to buy more to get my AA back in line.
ReplyDeletetof- Too funny. It closes right at 1173.
ReplyDeleteI did buy a few SPY puts heading into hte close too....bought some $114 puts at $1.90 expiring next Friday.
ReplyDeleteGreat overall day in my port! Longest I have been since 2007.
ReplyDeleteOne bad trade but the B&H performed well.
jeez rapid fire trades here. just took off SPY puts at $2.05
ReplyDelete