(1) The buy and hold guys saw this dip as a mere annoyance...enough to look at their portfolio a little closer but not enough to waver their confidence.
(2) The appearance of support gets shorts worried and gives the dip buyers a chance to buy the dip again...a breakout above 1,173 should draw in a lot more people...until we hit the 1,210 to 1,220 level, which should be a big time resistance level.
(3) The belief that the Fed can save us with the 2 years of no interest rates makes people believe there could be good support for the bullish case.
(4) With the stop in the dip at around 18% or so, people view this as nothing more than a re-run of 2010; i.e., a buying opportunity.
However, if the European issues continue in their trajectory, it will eventually spark a selloff in the next few weeks that will stop out the dip buyers and get the buy and hold types really worried, which will add a whole lot of volume to the downside. I think that could bring us down to 1,040 or perhaps even as low as 950.
The main issue with this France / Germany meeting is that the French don't have the capacity, as voted upon by the widening CDS spreads, to help in bailing out Italy and Spain. If they join Germany in doing this, I suspect we will get a nice rally for about 1 or 2 days, at which point people will start questioning France's ability to repay the additional debt. If this happens then we have a big problem and reason for much more downside.
If France and Germany fail to provide support then the market will view this as negative immediately. Either way, I think this will end up as being market negative. Unfortunately, Italy and Spain have already gotten past the point of no return:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38451750
Italy and Spain's spreads are the widest I have seen since I started following this a month or so ago.
2008 vs now: So what's the consensus? I think the consensus is that there is no way we're going to go into a 2008 type scenario again b/c banks and everyone is prepared for this type of scenario. But is that really true? The size of the banks that were at risk back in 2008 were smaller than the size of the countries that are at risk now.
I personally put the odds at very small of that happening but you never know. At this point in time I don't want to take much risk.
Sure, we'll drop to 1040 right after we unleash 40 days and 40 nights of hell on the bears. I'll join the short side as soon as we hit 1450- for a trade.
And the theory that this is a re-run of 2010 is kind of silly...the economy was actually growing faster back then and the issue then was Greece and Portugal, which are far smaller than Italy, Spain, and France.
Also, did you guys see the Trade Deficit report today? http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3063-economicCalendar.html?mod=mdc_h_cmgrel
The worse than expected exports will result in a decent sized drop to GDP growth for Q2. Remember Q1 was revised down quite a bit and Q2 came in to 1.3%. This may very well drop it below 1% and possibly on par with Q1. And all of this is before the fallout in the stock market we have had here in q3. So we're most likely in a recession at this point and with the market only down about 14% from highs, I'm afraid that we have much further to fall...especially if growth is the one thing that we need to keep our AAA ratings intact with the other two ratings agencies. I wouldn't be surprised to see S&P downgrade us further, unfortunately.
Again, risks are definitely to the downside in my mind so it's best to reduce risk and wait for better deals.
I agree with TOF's analysis, and I will close my SPY calls when S&P hits 1250 next week. I strongly suspect that S&P won't be able to get past 1250, and I'll probably rotate the money from S&P calls into DB puts at that point.
tof- You need to stop popping 'ludes and join the right party- the Bulls have the ball. And the balls. An offensive lineman just tore up your list of negatives, crumpled it into a ball, and ate it!
David > I guess so man, unfortunately. If we're able to get back up maybe a few % above the 200 DMA then I'll be ready to go bullish again...
The world's governments are doing the wrong thing right now in terms of being bullish...but it's not their fault. The bond markets are forcing them to cut spending. Perhaps money printing will be the solution and if so and we get above the 200 DMA then I'll be ready and willing...or if we get some really good bargains then I'll be ready to buy up stocks again. I'm talking MMYT at $10 to $12, OPEN at $40, IBKC at $40, BCPC at $25, DXPE at $14....great companies that I want to own forever.
Just for the record, 2nd, I don't want to root against you man. I hate being bearish....I'll guess I just re-phrase it as waiting for prices to come to me...
To put the other side of the argument out there...
I'm in the camp that this pullback was an annoyance and wish I had made more money from it, but see it as just a stutter step within the bull market. The main factors supporting the bull market are:
1. Valuations are cheap. People talk about a 7% difference between the S&P earnings yield and 10-year treasuries, pretty much the highest on record. This is probably true, but what I do know for sure is a lot of individual stocks that I look are are very cheap.
2. Companies are lean and there are very few excesses in the system. So, even if we get a mild recession or an extended soft patch, companies are well positioned to manage through this and maintain margins, profits and stock prices.
3. A lot of the world is still growing strongly. Sure, things are slowing, but worldwide GDP is still growing meaning there are business opportunities.
I agree that if something unexpectedly bad comes out of France, the market will take a bad hit, but at this point, I believe too many people are watching things and the market is already prepared for many bad things. I also think another Lehman type event is very unlikely given that so much work has been done to ensure this won't happen again. SO, it would have to be something unexpected, not just something bad to cause a large further downdraft.
If I think about individual companies and how they are doing as opposed to the global issues, most of them are doing fine and working hard to improve efficiencies, strengthen capital, etc. Very few of the ones I own would be at risk from even a fairly significant slowdown in the economy.
Think you're adding a lot of value to this Blog. Always like hearing other opinions and good to think about the other ways people are looking at the market.
tof- I have no problem with anyone 'rooting against me!' Heck, I do it all the time. I'm just pointing out that the market has absorbed all of the above and is now matching each body blow it takes with one of equal power. If this was a boxing match, the crowd is sensing a shift in odds.
2nd - you're definitely right, but my take is its just a throwback rally...Unfortunately, the force with which the market took out the 200 DMA and didn't instantly rebound was a pretty big concern to me. Now if the market rallies, tests but doesn't drop below 1,100 on a closing basis over the next several weeks/months then I'll probably take that as a buy signal. Or if it takes it out and immediately bounces back then again I'll take it as a buy signal. It would be like 1998 all over again.
But I think the world is in worse shape than 1998 now that the European junk has spread so much.
BID - IMHO is a PoS, ToF. I played it as a value stock which it is not. Held during 08/09. Amen.
Intermediate term macro, I agree with your outlook. Am wishing it could be otherwise but holding on several oil producers which I believe to be on the right tract.
Based on what I'm reading about Iowa, I would put money on Obama for 2012. If their best (collective) foot forward is taking shots at Obama and each other...they're already done.
"Press Release Source: Silvercorp Metals Inc. On Thursday August 11, 2011, 2:02 pm EDT
VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwire -08/11/11)- Silvercorp Metals Inc. ("Silvercorp" or the "Company") (TSX: SVM.TO - News)(NYSE: SVM.TO - News) announces that to date it has acquired, pursuant to its normal course issuer bid, 558,200 of its common shares through the facilities of the TSX and it has acquired 218,258 of its common shares through the facilities of the NYSE for a total of 776,458 common shares (collectively, the "Shares"); the average price paid per Share is CDN $8.185. All Shares will be cancelled."
Aug 12 (Reuters) - Bank of America Chief Executive Brian Moynihan met privately this week with Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and Federal Reserve governor Daniel Tarullo amid the campaign to calm investors and employees about the bank's share price fall, the Wall Street Journal reported. The separate meetings took place on Wednesday in Washington, the WSJ said, citing people familiar with the situation. The intent of the meetings with the two top federal officials was for Moynihan to discuss issues related to housing, consumer spending and the U.S. economy, two people familiar with the meetings told the Journal. During the meetings, Moynihan stressed the urgency of reaching a wide-ranging mortgage foreclosure settlement with several federal agencies and 50 state attorneys general, the paper said. Bank of America could not immediately be reached by Reuters for comment outside regular U.S. business hours. (Reporting by Sakthi Prasad in Bangalore; Editing by Vinu Pilakkott)
Mark- im sensing a lot of nasty shit is abt to go down...short selling bans...constant bailouts of nations only to be followed up with emergency meetings by heads of states plus debt ratings decreases...all the while the common investor is told that stocks are the saafest places to put ur money...especially div stocks....come on now!
What we'll see next is a boatload of homo sapiens throwing stocks out the window as the Market continues chugging upstream, relieved at the chance to get out at 'breakeven' or whatever...a few days/weeks before they're hit with the next urge to chase the same stocks at higher prices.
"I cannot trade this kind of action." Bullshit, I have seen you trade it and worse. You have to be getting the itch to trade by now. Come out of the bunker!! :)
adding up all his buys and options action, Dutch now officially owns 300% of the TRX float...DOH!
as far as I'm concerned TRX is a shame, look at all the restatements they have had to do recently and they still haven't pulled a single nugget of gold out of the gravel....what a waste of time following this pig
BACML - I mean come on really, what kind of broker, assuming they're serious about remaining in business, would even consider quoting prices 20 minutes old?
TRX - "Dutch now officially owns 300% of the TRX float...DOH!"
Sinclair is of Rothschild ilk. He grew up on the knee sitting at a trading desk of wall street banksters and is to be respected like you might respect a poisonous snake, or a rabid animal.
Does he have the gold? While many people wait for an answer, others pull gold out of the ground.
Put another way, A gold mine is nothing but a hole in the ground with a liar standing over top of it.
Another factor unrelated: Mexican drug cartels taking possession of gold mines, what about the same in Africa, I've been there in times of peace but have had friends in presumably high places returning home in fear. Africa too, can be a scary place under certain conditions?
Out of my positions for the weekend. VIX crashing while VXX is barely budging. Probably further evidence that we will see more fear going out at least the next couple of months.
The 50 day/200 day death cross which has marked every major market turning point since at least '98 will occur on Monday or Tuesday. This will give us a pretty clear script for the next 18-36 months. I'd still like to see a rising bear channel up to 1250ish in the meantime.
As far as boots on the ground, I've traveled all over the country on the ground via train to every major city over the past year. They have the "build it and they will come" mentality. There are 100% empty gigantic cities ALL over the place.
I lived in South Florida during the real estate climax in 2005-2006. There were empty subdivisions on every corner. It didn't end well.
Unfortunately, my girlfriend has a nice condo in Kunming. Her friend has pretty much their entire family net worth in 6 properties there. The government won't let them sell. They see the tsunami approaching.
Sorry, I thought we had discussed it. I'll be more insistent or informative in the future but I have no proof of anything, just hearsay.
Interesting note on PM resistance levels, $42 is the square of $1764, a resistance level for gold. Any significance silver resistance appears around $42?
Can't sell real estate in many of the US states either, without paying some form of capital gains tax.
I sold a property in Texas a few years back and had to pay capital gains to the state in which I currently live. Texas has no income tax, they compensate that with via annual real estate tax. Therefore, I was double-taxed. Now our government has spent what was supposed to be in the SS trust fund, and is considering not paying armed forces in battle among other things. How fair is that to savers and investors?
Create a hostile investment environment in order for a few elite to line their pockets. Take, take, take, is about all they know.
So you see, guys, VXX is not going to deflate as fast as we want it to. VIX is at 35 now, the September futures are at 33.85, and the October ones are at 27.45. So even if VIX drops another 20%, it will only affect September futures, but October ones might not move much at all. VXX is currently tracking mostly October futures, and so the impact on VXX from the collapse of September futures is going to be minimal, and today is a demo of that.
By the way, great trading of MITK, Mark! Becoming an investor AND leaving some spare cash to add to your position on every decent pullback is the recipe for success!
I think the problem with ECU now is that all individual traders who were unhappy with the merger are selling now, while the big funds are waiting to buy until the merger actually goes through. So I suspect we have a unique buying opportunity here. Of course, I also said this at $0.90, $0.80 and at $0.70. :) But I stand by my words, as I still think the current investment into ECU will quadruple by the end of 2012...
"I listened to the interview and perhaps it is worth pausing for a second and putting it in context.
Jim Sinclair has been calling for MACRO moves in precious metals for years. The man simply lives at the 10,000 foot level and whether you know it or not... his father was Jessie Livermore's partner...together they personally traded 10% of the NY stock exchange...so he grew up on the knee of best traders in the world and lived inside the system. Many suggest that today he still has connections to the banking families that own the "system"...whatever.
The sense of urgency in his voice is real...but not for him...for US! He has royalty deals and three mines coming online just at the perfect time...this year and the next2 years.
I believe he see's "right here, right now" as the situation he has been warning about for years.
If you listen to James Turk... you get the following info: The ECB (European Central Bank) is leveraged up the Ying Yang. Their capital base is such that it would only take a 4% "haircut" on their book to wipe out ALL of their capital base and trigger a call to the rest of the countries for money. Therefore any Greek haircut will wipe them out and Germany know this. The Fed is actually leveraged DOUBLE and a 2.5% correction would wipe them out.
All agree that it could be anything that triggers the house of cards to collapse. Sinclair is saying we are there right now and we don't need any more problems... we have enough right here and now.
Good Lord ...even a Rothschild spoke....and they never speak."
Hey Boys...I was just on my way to the liquor store for some scotch and I thought I would drop by. Man, 2nd is a bullish buy and holder and TOF is cautious? JB and Mark are running the ES with the pros? Geezus! I see CP is his usual sensible self. I hope the dog is good and the poultry is well CP. I gotta go with TOF here. A lot of technical damage, banned shorting all over the place and 0% interest rates to banks for 2 yrs? Where have I heard this tune before? They don't need to draw me a picture. Not to mention my BIG BLUE ARROW is pointing down! I never thought drawing a fricking arrow would be so profitable! It takes practice though! Maybe they should draw arrows on the fed beige book? So I see a retrace off of very low levels, maybe to just below the 200, then all bets are off. But that is a total guess as I don't do anything but follow the arrow. Gold has an up arrow and a nice knockout pullback. Other than that, a few shorts and a quick day strike on a big move for a few minutes, I'm keeping my hands warm under my butt. I'll bet 2nd didn't waste a second jumping on CSCO with a 13 handle. That would have been a smart move.
I hope you all are doing well and getting wealthy. All is well here. I'm gonna go pour some concrete for my new deck and enjoy the weather. I might stop by later for a cup of sugar or something. Ciao!
Layoffs continue around Bay Area The San Francisco Business Times reports that more than 1,000 Bay Area jobs were slashed in July and 428 were slated for elimination so far this month, according to the state Economic Development Department’s Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification Act roster. Under the federal WARN Act, companies must provide 60 days notice if they eliminate 50 or more jobs during a 30-day period. The layoffs in recent months hit a wide range of Bay Area companies and cut across industries, from banking to law, hospitality to health care. They included 136 this month at the Millbrae-Serra Convalescent Hospital in Millbrae, and 47 in June at Mills-Peninsula Health Services, part of Sutter Health.
Hospital projects to get underway on the Peninsula The San Francisco Business Times also reports that two huge related hospital construction projects at Stanford University and a $210 million Sutter Health clinic project in San Carlos are poised to begin this month or next, if last-minute permits at Stanford come through as expected. The Stanford projects are the first steps of $3.5 billion in hospital construction work by Stanford Hospital & Clinics and next-door Lucile Packard Children’s Hospital in Palo Alto. Stanford got approval from the city of Palo Alto on the development agreement for the massive projects last month. Officials expect to get permits for specific project work this week or very soon thereafter, said project spokeswoman Sarah Staley. Meanwhile, Sutter and its Palo Alto Medical Foundation affiliate are in the final stages of site prep work for a 192,000-square-foot, 120-physician outpatient clinic and 1,000-space parking structure in San Carlos, as Phase One of a proposed $550 million medical complex there. Sutter hopes to break ground by mid- to late September.
I've been with Landry's service for almost 8 mos now. It's the best $80 a month I've ever spent. The only time I don't do well is when I think I'm smarter than the market or I try to micro-manage. We had one trade that went against us about two weeks ago that we stopped out on and we're stopped out of all the longs, but we booked profits on all of them and we have some profitable shorts we're looking to add to if they trigger. If not we've already reached the profit targets on the shorts and booked a profit and the rest is set at break even. You know the routine.
I'm looking at this time as an opportunity. We either really correct and I'm positioned or we stop out of shorts and have a chance at lower prices going up. I'm still holding a bit of gold and silver so I can't complain about that.
Last I looked you were in CSCO at 14+ so you can't feel bad about that. TOF must have made a killing on MITK. Mark too if he had some size the last week or so. One of these days David is going to be a wealthy man too. We are all very lucky.
When I signed up it was less and because I signed on for longer he threw in a month on top of the initial free month he had back in December, so it came to a little over $80 a month.
I just checked out the rate page (since I'm up for renewal) and it's $175 a month and progresses in three month increments to $1460 ($121.66 a month) for a year.
Heck, I made the initial 8 mos fee back in about a week. If you call him and sign on for longer he might give you a break. If you do, tell him Craig the dog trainer sent you. It might be worth a discount to both of us.
GPL - Silver ore concentrate backing up at roaster/smelting processing facility?
From the GPL production results reported on July 12:
"The market for high grade precious metals concentrate sales became more difficult during the quarter as a result of a global surplus of concentrates due to the general upsurge in mine production in response to higher metal prices. Great Panther has secured a contract to sell the Guanajuato concentrates through a trader to an overseas smelter. However, the smelter has an oversupply of concentrates and has reduced the quantity of purchases, such that inventories of unsold concentrates at Guanajuato were higher than normal at the end of the quarter. While this will influence second quarter revenue, it is considered to be a short-term issue and negotiations with alternative buyers are being pursued."
hey fellas - just got back from my friends pre-wedding golf outing. what a day! glad to see you longs making some money in this market. i'm still short a small amount in SPY but i'm about 80% cash...Here's to higher prices...so that you longs can make money and i can get more short...we need high enough prices to get the "nervous nellies" worried about their shorts...and the dip buyers more confident. i'm sitting this out for a while and will add to my SPY short at $120-121 and then again at $125 if it gets there.
"Do not be blinded by plastic market situation yang's personal blogThursday, August 11. 2011"
"I believe that the debt crisis in Europe will be effectively controlled, will not cause the global economy, the second bottom. Therefore, commodity prices had the biggest trouble is likely to decline the negative factors, thus facilitating the steady rise of commodity prices at home and abroad."
JB - "warning me about JS, guess I was suffering from gold fever"
Gold isn't the only compelling buy in the market!
Well the jury is still out on that one, all I can say is I haven't been following TRX, nor have I done any DD on it.
Just passing on my interpretation of comments, if you mull around that PM trading site I posted earlier you can read for yourself in the trading section for TRX.
Seriously, I can't say TRX doesn't have the goods. All I can say is they have no product in the market, and that's going to be necessary to instill confidence and pay a dividend, etc.?
I wouldn't be surprised if you managed to sell the bottom, but I have not put forth the effort myself to make any kind of comprehensive judgment on that.
From a slightly different perspective, JS may be under attack of shorts b/c he's the loudest cowboy in the rodeo?
And gold was down(Aug 8th gap up retest?), according to this pumper guy, that's $10:$0.10 gold:TRX
"Despite our stance, we are not necessarily excited about the prospects for the indices," Birinyi said. "Our preference continues to be for individual discrete names which may have few common characteristics."
Gold is pricey here and everyone is waiting to see if the gap up is filled (I suspect the gap was placed there intentionally). My bet is that Sarkozy and Merkel pull a rabbit out of the hat after next Tuesday's meeting to soothe markets but it will fall short of true euro-fiscal integration. European sovereign debt and banking woes will reemerge to support higher gold prices in the fall, perhaps sooner.
Meanwhile we're watching action around that gap b/c if it does fill, it may come with negative psychological impact.
One of the lessons I've learned time and time again over the past 2 years is to never trust index setups. Instead, look to see if individual stocks in your stock lists confirm the setups you see in the indexes. This is why I returned to this board on the 25th after a long trading hiatus and deliriously ranted about how the leading momo stocks were crashing all around us indicating a potential head and shoulders crash starting "within 2-4 sessions".
After panic crashes in the past, you ALWAYS see leading small cap stocks surging 10-20% daily in the days leading out of the bottom. Unfortunately, I'm not seeing this. After the Dow up 126 points, I am looking for explosive moves out of bottom formations. I thought I would be regretful that I wasn't long heading out of this bottom. However, I see TONS of red candles. Strange.
If the momentum move is to continue, stocks and indexes will bounce off their 10 day moving averages. The SOX bounced off it today and the majors and of course inverses are about to hit them. So, we could resume the downtrend on Monday or Tuesday.
I am very inclined to be bullish here. I'd like to see a steady move up to 1250 on the S+P before looking for high probability short setups. I'm just observing that there should be massive money being made buying small caps out of this bottom. I'm just not seeing it.
Jesse - Just an observation, but I see a helluva a lot of people saying they will go all in on the short side at 1,250. That can mean only one of two things: (1) We never get that high (2) We just blow right through there.
I'm inclined to lean toward the former.
Again, with the 200 DMA now on the decline and us being sufficiently below the 200 DMA, I'm not looking to go long. I'm letting prices come to me as I would love to see my favorite stocks at prices far lower (wouldn't we all).
CP >
ReplyDelete(1) The buy and hold guys saw this dip as a mere annoyance...enough to look at their portfolio a little closer but not enough to waver their confidence.
(2) The appearance of support gets shorts worried and gives the dip buyers a chance to buy the dip again...a breakout above 1,173 should draw in a lot more people...until we hit the 1,210 to 1,220 level, which should be a big time resistance level.
(3) The belief that the Fed can save us with the 2 years of no interest rates makes people believe there could be good support for the bullish case.
(4) With the stop in the dip at around 18% or so, people view this as nothing more than a re-run of 2010; i.e., a buying opportunity.
However, if the European issues continue in their trajectory, it will eventually spark a selloff in the next few weeks that will stop out the dip buyers and get the buy and hold types really worried, which will add a whole lot of volume to the downside. I think that could bring us down to 1,040 or perhaps even as low as 950.
The main issue with this France / Germany meeting is that the French don't have the capacity, as voted upon by the widening CDS spreads, to help in bailing out Italy and Spain. If they join Germany in doing this, I suspect we will get a nice rally for about 1 or 2 days, at which point people will start questioning France's ability to repay the additional debt. If this happens then we have a big problem and reason for much more downside.
If France and Germany fail to provide support then the market will view this as negative immediately. Either way, I think this will end up as being market negative. Unfortunately, Italy and Spain have already gotten past the point of no return:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38451750
Italy and Spain's spreads are the widest I have seen since I started following this a month or so ago.
2008 vs now: So what's the consensus? I think the consensus is that there is no way we're going to go into a 2008 type scenario again b/c banks and everyone is prepared for this type of scenario. But is that really true? The size of the banks that were at risk back in 2008 were smaller than the size of the countries that are at risk now.
I personally put the odds at very small of that happening but you never know. At this point in time I don't want to take much risk.
Sure, we'll drop to 1040 right after we unleash 40 days and 40 nights of hell on the bears. I'll join the short side as soon as we hit 1450- for a trade.
ReplyDeleteAnd the theory that this is a re-run of 2010 is kind of silly...the economy was actually growing faster back then and the issue then was Greece and Portugal, which are far smaller than Italy, Spain, and France.
ReplyDeleteAlso, did you guys see the Trade Deficit report today?
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3063-economicCalendar.html?mod=mdc_h_cmgrel
The worse than expected exports will result in a decent sized drop to GDP growth for Q2. Remember Q1 was revised down quite a bit and Q2 came in to 1.3%. This may very well drop it below 1% and possibly on par with Q1. And all of this is before the fallout in the stock market we have had here in q3. So we're most likely in a recession at this point and with the market only down about 14% from highs, I'm afraid that we have much further to fall...especially if growth is the one thing that we need to keep our AAA ratings intact with the other two ratings agencies. I wouldn't be surprised to see S&P downgrade us further, unfortunately.
Again, risks are definitely to the downside in my mind so it's best to reduce risk and wait for better deals.
2nd - Great choice on the clip.
ReplyDeletetof - Excellent analysis. This Germany-France bailout of every other country over there stands a very good chance of blowing up...
I agree with TOF's analysis, and I will close my SPY calls when S&P hits 1250 next week. I strongly suspect that S&P won't be able to get past 1250, and I'll probably rotate the money from S&P calls into DB puts at that point.
ReplyDeleteTOF -- so are you in Hussman's camp now as well? :)
ReplyDeletetof- You need to stop popping 'ludes and join the right party- the Bulls have the ball. And the balls. An offensive lineman just tore up your list of negatives, crumpled it into a ball, and ate it!
ReplyDeleteDavid > I guess so man, unfortunately. If we're able to get back up maybe a few % above the 200 DMA then I'll be ready to go bullish again...
ReplyDeleteThe world's governments are doing the wrong thing right now in terms of being bullish...but it's not their fault. The bond markets are forcing them to cut spending. Perhaps money printing will be the solution and if so and we get above the 200 DMA then I'll be ready and willing...or if we get some really good bargains then I'll be ready to buy up stocks again. I'm talking MMYT at $10 to $12, OPEN at $40, IBKC at $40, BCPC at $25, DXPE at $14....great companies that I want to own forever.
Just for the record, 2nd, I don't want to root against you man. I hate being bearish....I'll guess I just re-phrase it as waiting for prices to come to me...
ReplyDeleteTOF,
ReplyDeleteYour line or reasoning is strong.
To put the other side of the argument out there...
I'm in the camp that this pullback was an annoyance and wish I had made more money from it, but see it as just a stutter step within the bull market. The main factors supporting the bull market are:
1. Valuations are cheap. People talk about a 7% difference between the S&P earnings yield and 10-year treasuries, pretty much the highest on record. This is probably true, but what I do know for sure is a lot of individual stocks that I look are are very cheap.
2. Companies are lean and there are very few excesses in the system. So, even if we get a mild recession or an extended soft patch, companies are well positioned to manage through this and maintain margins, profits and stock prices.
3. A lot of the world is still growing strongly. Sure, things are slowing, but worldwide GDP is still growing meaning there are business opportunities.
I agree that if something unexpectedly bad comes out of France, the market will take a bad hit, but at this point, I believe too many people are watching things and the market is already prepared for many bad things. I also think another Lehman type event is very unlikely given that so much work has been done to ensure this won't happen again. SO, it would have to be something unexpected, not just something bad to cause a large further downdraft.
If I think about individual companies and how they are doing as opposed to the global issues, most of them are doing fine and working hard to improve efficiencies, strengthen capital, etc. Very few of the ones I own would be at risk from even a fairly significant slowdown in the economy.
Think you're adding a lot of value to this Blog. Always like hearing other opinions and good to think about the other ways people are looking at the market.
tof- I have no problem with anyone 'rooting against me!' Heck, I do it all the time. I'm just pointing out that the market has absorbed all of the above and is now matching each body blow it takes with one of equal power. If this was a boxing match, the crowd is sensing a shift in odds.
ReplyDeleteAnd if necessary, I'll add a smiley face to my posts! After 2 years, I just don't think it's necessary.
ReplyDelete2nd - you're definitely right, but my take is its just a throwback rally...Unfortunately, the force with which the market took out the 200 DMA and didn't instantly rebound was a pretty big concern to me. Now if the market rallies, tests but doesn't drop below 1,100 on a closing basis over the next several weeks/months then I'll probably take that as a buy signal. Or if it takes it out and immediately bounces back then again I'll take it as a buy signal. It would be like 1998 all over again.
ReplyDeleteBut I think the world is in worse shape than 1998 now that the European junk has spread so much.
BB - Thanks man...you too! Maybe some day we can all grab a dozen beers together.
ReplyDeleteTOF, I'm sure after a dozen beers we'd have the market completely figured out!
ReplyDeletehey have you guys ever heard of Sothebys (BID) being used as a proxy for the stock market?
ReplyDeleteFSII- Anyone follow it?
ReplyDeleteTOF- No. Charts aren't that close. Why?
ReplyDeleteMark - They look pretty damn accurate man.
ReplyDeleteBID - Never realized it was a proxy but it sure has a high beta (2.26) and it shook me out from a value play during the last great, recent downturn.
ReplyDeleteBID - IMHO is a PoS, ToF. I played it as a value stock which it is not. Held during 08/09. Amen.
ReplyDeleteIntermediate term macro, I agree with your outlook. Am wishing it could be otherwise but holding on several oil producers which I believe to be on the right tract.
Just got back from the little guy's first soccer practice of the season.
ReplyDeleteGlad to see futes in the red right now. I mean it.
Based on what I'm reading about Iowa, I would put money on Obama for 2012. If their best (collective) foot forward is taking shots at Obama and each other...they're already done.
ReplyDeleteTOF- I just did a 10y, 5y, 1y BID/SPY. I still don't get it.
ReplyDeleteSVM - Buyback under progress -
ReplyDelete"Press Release Source: Silvercorp Metals Inc. On Thursday August 11, 2011, 2:02 pm EDT
VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwire -08/11/11)- Silvercorp Metals Inc. ("Silvercorp" or the "Company") (TSX: SVM.TO - News)(NYSE: SVM.TO - News) announces that to date it has acquired, pursuant to its normal course issuer bid, 558,200 of its common shares through the facilities of the TSX and it has acquired 218,258 of its common shares through the facilities of the NYSE for a total of 776,458 common shares (collectively, the "Shares"); the average price paid per Share is CDN $8.185. All Shares will be cancelled."
Mark > BID looks to peak out just before the peak in the market...I honestly don't know much about it but I saw some post about it:
ReplyDeletehttp://goatmug.blogspot.com/
Interesting article here:
ReplyDelete"The FED's Gamble"
http://seekingalpha.com/article/286350-the-fed-s-gamble-and-the-summer-crash-of-2011?source=yahoo
No matter how you cut it, this is not good.
ReplyDeleteAug 12 (Reuters) - Bank of America Chief Executive Brian Moynihan met privately this week with Treasury Secretary
Timothy Geithner and Federal Reserve governor Daniel Tarullo amid the campaign to calm investors and employees about
the bank's share price fall, the Wall Street Journal reported.
The separate meetings took place on Wednesday in Washington, the WSJ said, citing people familiar with the situation.
The intent of the meetings with the two top federal officials was for Moynihan to discuss issues related to housing,
consumer spending and the U.S. economy, two people familiar with the meetings told the Journal.
During the meetings, Moynihan stressed the urgency of reaching a wide-ranging mortgage foreclosure settlement with
several federal agencies and 50 state attorneys general, the paper said.
Bank of America could not immediately be reached by Reuters for comment outside regular U.S. business hours. (Reporting
by Sakthi Prasad in Bangalore; Editing by Vinu Pilakkott)
Mark- im sensing a lot of nasty shit is abt to go down...short selling bans...constant bailouts of nations only to be followed up with emergency meetings by heads of states plus debt ratings decreases...all the while the common investor is told that stocks are the saafest places to put ur money...especially div stocks....come on now!
ReplyDeleteShit, S&P futures are down 1% now! It would be totally wacky to have a big down day tomorrow, which would make it a wild zig-zag week...
ReplyDeleteAhem, got gold?
ReplyDelete"India June industrial output grows 8.8 percent "
ReplyDeletehttp://www.commodityonline.com/news/India-June-industrial-output-grows-88-percent-41610-3-1.html
"Last Updated : 11 August 2011 at 11:10 IST
ReplyDeleteStrong Yuan continues pushing copper prices north"
http://www.commodityonline.com/news/Strong-Yuan-continues-pushing-copper-prices-north-41563-3-1.html
another pretty active globex session, I'm waiting to see if the 6E tests 4250 again.
ReplyDeletelong 6e 4251, 8 tick stop. if we power thru then the ES will follow
ReplyDelete1 car off @58, stop up to BE
ReplyDelete1 car off 60, yep i'm a chicken
ReplyDeletestop up to 55
ReplyDeleteso, tagged me at 55, lot of pressure here, important level for today
ReplyDeleteI think it will be interesting to see how the market reacts to the data today (retail sales and cons conf), will shot who is in charge: people or bots
ReplyDeleteThanks CP. I think Copper is the most important tell for future market direction.
ReplyDeleteNice little trade bro.
ReplyDeletethx Mark.
ReplyDelete6E back in the value area, ES retracing as well. not going to do anything until after the number in 15min
ReplyDeleteYeah, let's see how much the ladies are spending. I expect flat x-autos.
ReplyDelete.5% X. Not bad really.
ReplyDeleteincluding the revision I think the numbers are good, now if humans are in charge we should see equities move up
ReplyDeleteIt's always homo sapiens that are in charge- that's the freaking problem.
ReplyDeleteWhat we'll see next is a boatload of homo sapiens throwing stocks out the window as the Market continues chugging upstream, relieved at the chance to get out at 'breakeven' or whatever...a few days/weeks before they're hit with the next urge to chase the same stocks at higher prices.
ReplyDeleteCopper - I believe reflation still exists as long as copper remains above $3.50/lb
ReplyDeleteI also don't anticipate a price below $4/lb, copper is now over $4/lb.
PKX - Under $95 is as good an entry as might ever be offered again.
ReplyDeleteGreen open....nice!
ReplyDeleteGood calls on the VXX shorts!
ReplyDeleteI think it is Wedbush Morgan who is tracking the impact the algo's are having on price/volume.....interesting stuff
ReplyDeleteJust sold 5K trading shares of MITK @ 9.46 that I bought on the way down @ 7.50 and 7.00.
ReplyDelete"Japan Considers Turning to Micro Nuclear Plants"
ReplyDeleteMy understanding is these can't melt down. Due to the intrinsic design they are self regulating in the thermal sense.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904006104576501793167664736.html?ru=yahoo&mod=yahoo_hs
1000 SDS @ 24.30.
ReplyDeleteSDS off @ 24.40. Not working.
ReplyDeleteI could've told you that.
ReplyDeleteJuuuuuust kidding.
ReplyDeleteNow it's working.
ReplyDeleteCrap. Cons. Con stinks.
ReplyDelete2nd- I know bro :)
ReplyDeletecommercials are selling hard as we come back to the lows
ReplyDeletethe locals were long going into the # and are now having to sell out at a big loss, once this flush is done I think we'll move back higher
ReplyDeleteI'm still watching 4250 on the 6E, we go back higher again that will be my key to go long ES
ReplyDeleteDamn, they bought the spike down in a heartbeat.
ReplyDelete2nd - yeah, I think it was a short term squeeze since the locals were on the wrong side going into the number.
ReplyDeletealso, the ES is popping back while the 6E is moving below 4250 - ????
I'm standing back, 6E is falling apart, expect the ES to follow
ReplyDeletegotta have brass b*lls to trade the 6E with size
ReplyDeleteThey've banging MS since the open.
ReplyDeletebought MRGE on the breakout, swing trade in at $6.47
ReplyDeleteI cannot trade this kind of action.
ReplyDeleteMRGE- Chart play only?
ReplyDeleteMRGE - ya, chart play only
ReplyDelete"I cannot trade this kind of action."
ReplyDeleteBullshit, I have seen you trade it and worse. You have to be getting the itch to trade by now. Come out of the bunker!! :)
These days I prefer sitting inside the saloon with a shot glass and a cigar. If I have to, I'll swing my boot heels off the table and go outside.
ReplyDeleteWhatever you gotta tell yourself 2nd. I prefer the old gun battles myself.
ReplyDeleteBig Financials down....might be a tell for the afternoon. GS down 1.5% now...we dont rally hard with any sustainability without them IMO
ReplyDeleteHolly cow. They're dumping TRX hand over fist.
ReplyDeleteBro - that was me (part of it anyway), selling 1/2 of my spec equities to fund my futures acct
ReplyDeleteThe yield curve has flattened, which can be tough on REIT dividends.
ReplyDeleteProxy - TLT:IEF
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=TLT:IEF&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p99295968853&a=217994610&r=7 736
adding up all his buys and options action, Dutch now officially owns 300% of the TRX float...DOH!
ReplyDeleteas far as I'm concerned TRX is a shame, look at all the restatements they have had to do recently and they still haven't pulled a single nugget of gold out of the gravel....what a waste of time following this pig
BACML - I mean come on really, what kind of broker, assuming they're serious about remaining in business, would even consider quoting prices 20 minutes old?
ReplyDeleteDie, BAC! May your spirit not be reincarnated.
TRX - "Dutch now officially owns 300% of the TRX float...DOH!"
ReplyDeleteSinclair is of Rothschild ilk. He grew up on the knee sitting at a trading desk of wall street banksters and is to be respected like you might respect a poisonous snake, or a rabid animal.
Does he have the gold? While many people wait for an answer, others pull gold out of the ground.
Put another way, A gold mine is nothing but a hole in the ground with a liar standing over top of it.
Another factor unrelated: Mexican drug cartels taking possession of gold mines, what about the same in Africa, I've been there in times of peace but have had friends in presumably high places returning home in fear. Africa too, can be a scary place under certain conditions?
Caveat emptor, DD, all that stuff:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LzA5qbkzEJU&feature=player_embedded
INVE - Is this hype at work?
ReplyDeleteMexican silver - Maybe the ATF can overnight some guns and ammo down there if the drug cartels need additional firepower.
ReplyDeleteCP - you coulda told me all this sooner...LOL
ReplyDeleteOut of my positions for the weekend. VIX crashing while VXX is barely budging. Probably further evidence that we will see more fear going out at least the next couple of months.
ReplyDeleteThe 50 day/200 day death cross which has marked every major market turning point since at least '98 will occur on Monday or Tuesday. This will give us a pretty clear script for the next 18-36 months. I'd still like to see a rising bear channel up to 1250ish in the meantime.
VXX is a horse crap trading vehicle. Trading VIX futures is for chumps....me included. I wish there was a realtime Vix product.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the China article CP.
ReplyDeleteAs far as boots on the ground, I've traveled all over the country on the ground via train to every major city over the past year. They have the "build it and they will come" mentality. There are 100% empty gigantic cities ALL over the place.
I lived in South Florida during the real estate climax in 2005-2006. There were empty subdivisions on every corner. It didn't end well.
Unfortunately, my girlfriend has a nice condo in Kunming. Her friend has pretty much their entire family net worth in 6 properties there. The government won't let them sell. They see the tsunami approaching.
For those bullishly inclined, CMT posted .41 eps w/ a good outlook today. Trading around $8.
ReplyDeleteJB - "you coulda told me all this sooner"
ReplyDeleteSorry, I thought we had discussed it. I'll be more insistent or informative in the future but I have no proof of anything, just hearsay.
Interesting note on PM resistance levels, $42 is the square of $1764, a resistance level for gold. Any significance silver resistance appears around $42?
Jesse - "They see the tsunami approaching."
ReplyDeleteI guess the next question might be to ask if that's a debt tsunami they're referring to.
Can't sell real estate in many of the US states either, without paying some form of capital gains tax.
ReplyDeleteI sold a property in Texas a few years back and had to pay capital gains to the state in which I currently live. Texas has no income tax, they compensate that with via annual real estate tax. Therefore, I was double-taxed. Now our government has spent what was supposed to be in the SS trust fund, and is considering not paying armed forces in battle among other things. How fair is that to savers and investors?
Create a hostile investment environment in order for a few elite to line their pockets. Take, take, take, is about all they know.
So you see, guys, VXX is not going to deflate as fast as we want it to. VIX is at 35 now, the September futures are at 33.85, and the October ones are at 27.45. So even if VIX drops another 20%, it will only affect September futures, but October ones might not move much at all. VXX is currently tracking mostly October futures, and so the impact on VXX from the collapse of September futures is going to be minimal, and today is a demo of that.
ReplyDeleteAt least CADC is up decently today. :)
ReplyDeleteBy the way, great trading of MITK, Mark! Becoming an investor AND leaving some spare cash to add to your position on every decent pullback is the recipe for success!
ReplyDeleteI think the problem with ECU now is that all individual traders who were unhappy with the merger are selling now, while the big funds are waiting to buy until the merger actually goes through. So I suspect we have a unique buying opportunity here. Of course, I also said this at $0.90, $0.80 and at $0.70. :) But I stand by my words, as I still think the current investment into ECU will quadruple by the end of 2012...
ReplyDeleteOn Sinclair:
ReplyDelete"I listened to the interview and perhaps it is worth pausing for a second and putting it in context.
Jim Sinclair has been calling for MACRO moves in precious metals for years. The man simply lives at the 10,000 foot level and whether you know it or not... his father was Jessie Livermore's partner...together they personally traded 10% of the NY stock exchange...so he grew up on the knee of best traders in the world and lived inside the system. Many suggest that today he still has connections to the banking families that own the "system"...whatever.
The sense of urgency in his voice is real...but not for him...for US! He has royalty deals and three mines coming online just at the perfect time...this year and the next2 years.
I believe he see's "right here, right now" as the situation he has been warning about for years.
If you listen to James Turk... you get the following info: The ECB (European Central Bank) is leveraged up the Ying Yang. Their capital base is such that it would only take a 4% "haircut" on their book to wipe out ALL of their capital base and trigger a call to the rest of the countries for money. Therefore any Greek haircut will wipe them out and Germany know this. The Fed is actually leveraged DOUBLE and a 2.5% correction would wipe them out.
All agree that it could be anything that triggers the house of cards to collapse. Sinclair is saying we are there right now and we don't need any more problems... we have enough right here and now.
Good Lord ...even a Rothschild spoke....and they never speak."
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/6203#comment-6203
Nervous nellies.
ReplyDelete"Nervous nellies."
ReplyDeleteThat was to be expected. But as long as we close above 1150 on S&P, I think the multi-day rebound rally won't be endangered...
MCP - Molycorp gets Hitachi deal?
ReplyDeleteHey Boys...I was just on my way to the liquor store for some scotch and I thought I would drop by. Man, 2nd is a bullish buy and holder and TOF is cautious? JB and Mark are running the ES with the pros? Geezus! I see CP is his usual sensible self. I hope the dog is good and the poultry is well CP.
ReplyDeleteI gotta go with TOF here. A lot of technical damage, banned shorting all over the place and 0% interest rates to banks for 2 yrs? Where have I heard this tune before? They don't need to draw me a picture.
Not to mention my BIG BLUE ARROW is pointing down! I never thought drawing a fricking arrow would be so profitable! It takes practice though! Maybe they should draw arrows on the fed beige book?
So I see a retrace off of very low levels, maybe to just below the 200, then all bets are off.
But that is a total guess as I don't do anything but follow the arrow. Gold has an up arrow and a nice knockout pullback. Other than that, a few shorts and a quick day strike on a big move for a few minutes, I'm keeping my hands warm under my butt.
I'll bet 2nd didn't waste a second jumping on CSCO with a 13 handle. That would have been a smart move.
I hope you all are doing well and getting wealthy. All is well here. I'm gonna go pour some concrete for my new deck and enjoy the weather. I might stop by later for a cup of sugar or something. Ciao!
FF
ZZZZZZZ>>>...
ReplyDeleteAgree Mark. Friday afternoons in the summer - nothing going on. May as well go cut the lawn and get a headstart on the weekend.
ReplyDeleteCraig- You're raking it in if you've been following Landry.
ReplyDeletebtw, you were the first person to bring up single malt scotch, even earlier than shark's appearance on the old blog.
Gap up Monday.
ReplyDeleteLayoffs continue around Bay Area
ReplyDeleteThe San Francisco Business Times reports that more than 1,000 Bay Area jobs were slashed in July and 428 were slated for elimination so far this month, according to the state Economic Development Department’s Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification Act roster. Under the federal WARN Act, companies must provide 60 days notice if they eliminate 50 or more jobs during a 30-day period. The layoffs in recent months hit a wide range of Bay Area companies and cut across industries, from banking to law, hospitality to health care. They included 136 this month at the Millbrae-Serra Convalescent Hospital in Millbrae, and 47 in June at Mills-Peninsula Health Services, part of Sutter Health.
Hospital projects to get underway on the Peninsula
The San Francisco Business Times also reports that two huge related hospital construction projects at Stanford University and a $210 million Sutter Health clinic project in San Carlos are poised to begin this month or next, if last-minute permits at Stanford come through as expected. The Stanford projects are the first steps of $3.5 billion in hospital construction work by Stanford Hospital & Clinics and next-door Lucile Packard Children’s Hospital in Palo Alto. Stanford got approval from the city of Palo Alto on the development agreement for the massive projects last month. Officials expect to get permits for specific project work this week or very soon thereafter, said project spokeswoman Sarah Staley. Meanwhile, Sutter and its Palo Alto Medical Foundation affiliate are in the final stages of site prep work for a 192,000-square-foot, 120-physician outpatient clinic and 1,000-space parking structure in San Carlos, as Phase One of a proposed $550 million medical complex there. Sutter hopes to break ground by mid- to late September.
TLT up more than the markets has me leaning bearish.
ReplyDeleteHas anyone heard from Sharkie?
ReplyDeleteI've been with Landry's service for almost 8 mos now. It's the best $80 a month I've ever spent. The only time I don't do well is when I think I'm smarter than the market or I try to micro-manage. We had one trade that went against us about two weeks ago that we stopped out on and we're stopped out of all the longs, but we booked profits on all of them and we have some profitable shorts we're looking to add to if they trigger. If not we've already reached the profit targets on the shorts and booked a profit and the rest is set at break even. You know the routine.
I'm looking at this time as an opportunity. We either really correct and I'm positioned or we stop out of shorts and have a chance at lower prices going up. I'm still holding a bit of gold and silver so I can't complain about that.
Last I looked you were in CSCO at 14+ so you can't feel bad about that. TOF must have made a killing on MITK. Mark too if he had some size the last week or so.
One of these days David is going to be a wealthy man too. We are all very lucky.
FF
FF. How do you only pay $80. I think it is closer to $200 now.
ReplyDeleteWhat a boring week in the market! S&P closed 1200 last Friday, 1180 today -- regular flat summer week. :))
ReplyDeleteWhen I signed up it was less and because I signed on for longer he threw in a month on top of the initial free month he had back in December, so it came to a little over $80 a month.
ReplyDeleteI just checked out the rate page (since I'm up for renewal) and it's $175 a month and progresses in three month increments to $1460 ($121.66 a month) for a year.
Heck, I made the initial 8 mos fee back in about a week.
If you call him and sign on for longer he might give you a break. If you do, tell him Craig the dog trainer sent you. It might be worth a discount to both of us.
GPL - Silver ore concentrate backing up at roaster/smelting processing facility?
ReplyDeleteFrom the GPL production results reported on July 12:
"The market for high grade precious metals concentrate sales became more difficult during the quarter as a result of a global surplus of concentrates due to the general upsurge in mine production in response to higher metal prices. Great Panther has secured a contract to sell the Guanajuato concentrates through a trader to an overseas smelter. However, the smelter has an oversupply of concentrates and has reduced the quantity of purchases, such that inventories of unsold concentrates at Guanajuato were higher than normal at the end of the quarter. While this will influence second quarter revenue, it is considered to be a short-term issue and negotiations with alternative buyers are being pursued."
CP - I do remember you warning me about JS, guess I was suffering from gold fever
ReplyDeletehey fellas - just got back from my friends pre-wedding golf outing. what a day! glad to see you longs making some money in this market. i'm still short a small amount in SPY but i'm about 80% cash...Here's to higher prices...so that you longs can make money and i can get more short...we need high enough prices to get the "nervous nellies" worried about their shorts...and the dip buyers more confident. i'm sitting this out for a while and will add to my SPY short at $120-121 and then again at $125 if it gets there.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cnbc.com/id/38451750
ReplyDeleteCDS spreads continued higher yesterday despite the huge rally in equities. We need to see Italy and Spain below 300 soon.
"Do not be blinded by plastic market situation
ReplyDeleteyang's personal blogThursday, August 11. 2011"
"I believe that the debt crisis in Europe will be effectively controlled, will not cause the global economy, the second bottom. Therefore, commodity prices had the biggest trouble is likely to decline the negative factors, thus facilitating the steady rise of commodity prices at home and abroad."
http://himfryang3.supersized.org/archives/1621-Do-not-be-blinded-by-plastic-market-situation.html
JB - "warning me about JS, guess I was suffering from gold fever"
ReplyDeleteGold isn't the only compelling buy in the market!
Well the jury is still out on that one, all I can say is I haven't been following TRX, nor have I done any DD on it.
Just passing on my interpretation of comments, if you mull around that PM trading site I posted earlier you can read for yourself in the trading section for TRX.
Seriously, I can't say TRX doesn't have the goods. All I can say is they have no product in the market, and that's going to be necessary to instill confidence and pay a dividend, etc.?
I wouldn't be surprised if you managed to sell the bottom, but I have not put forth the effort myself to make any kind of comprehensive judgment on that.
From a slightly different perspective, JS may be under attack of shorts b/c he's the loudest cowboy in the rodeo?
And gold was down(Aug 8th gap up retest?), according to this pumper guy, that's $10:$0.10 gold:TRX
http://tanzanianroyalty.blogspot.com/
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/22639
Looks like Laz is getting a bit shaken...
ReplyDelete"Despite our stance, we are not necessarily excited about the prospects for the indices," Birinyi said. "Our preference continues to be for individual discrete names which may have few common characteristics."
Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2011/08/09/bloomberg1376-LPO8WL1A74E901-0PUO8BA3L3S8G3IA6JJJCDAI9F.DTL#ixzz1Ur6DgPuM
By the way, what the hell happened to NVDA? I thought they had good earnings? I'm not being facetious...anyone know why it went down?
ReplyDeleteAlso, what's up with MS? Do they have European exposure?
Gold is pricey here and everyone is waiting to see if the gap up is filled (I suspect the gap was placed there intentionally). My bet is that Sarkozy and Merkel pull a rabbit out of the hat after next Tuesday's meeting to soothe markets but it will fall short of true euro-fiscal integration. European sovereign debt and banking woes will reemerge to support higher gold prices in the fall, perhaps sooner.
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile we're watching action around that gap b/c if it does fill, it may come with negative psychological impact.
ECPN.OB - El Capitan - 1.2oz/ton Receives investment interest?
ReplyDeleteCP - On a weekly basis it looks like the S&P has room to run another 50 pts.
ReplyDeleteSome observations:
ReplyDeleteOne of the lessons I've learned time and time again over the past 2 years is to never trust index setups. Instead, look to see if individual stocks in your stock lists confirm the setups you see in the indexes. This is why I returned to this board on the 25th after a long trading hiatus and deliriously ranted about how the leading momo stocks were crashing all around us indicating a potential head and shoulders crash starting "within 2-4 sessions".
After panic crashes in the past, you ALWAYS see leading small cap stocks surging 10-20% daily in the days leading out of the bottom. Unfortunately, I'm not seeing this. After the Dow up 126 points, I am looking for explosive moves out of bottom formations. I thought I would be regretful that I wasn't long heading out of this bottom. However, I see TONS of red candles. Strange.
If the momentum move is to continue, stocks and indexes will bounce off their 10 day moving averages. The SOX bounced off it today and the majors and of course inverses are about to hit them. So, we could resume the downtrend on Monday or Tuesday.
I am very inclined to be bullish here. I'd like to see a steady move up to 1250 on the S+P before looking for high probability short setups. I'm just observing that there should be massive money being made buying small caps out of this bottom. I'm just not seeing it.
Thanks for a good observation, Jesse. I would like to point out that some small caps DID have amazing rebounds, like MITK...
ReplyDeleteHave you guys seen the graphs at http://www.consumerindexes.com/index.html? That's some consumer activity we are seeing now!
ReplyDeleteJesse - Just an observation, but I see a helluva a lot of people saying they will go all in on the short side at 1,250. That can mean only one of two things:
ReplyDelete(1) We never get that high
(2) We just blow right through there.
I'm inclined to lean toward the former.
Again, with the 200 DMA now on the decline and us being sufficiently below the 200 DMA, I'm not looking to go long. I'm letting prices come to me as I would love to see my favorite stocks at prices far lower (wouldn't we all).
New post ladies.
ReplyDelete