I figured I would go ahead and update my TZOO analysis for a full 24 hour period just to see how it updates and the revenues are actually slightly better than the amount I estimated just a few hours ago.
They generated $247k in sales in 49 cities. There were an additional 17 deals that involved direct purchases from vendors that I couldn't track so I just used the average for all other deals and arrived at an estimated $51k in sales for those. I again ignored the deals that were pulled off the site because they hit the vendor's maximum, even though this is pretty conservative. If I were to include them then it would be at least an extra $25k in revenues.
Anyway, I got $298k for 49 cities. They have an additional 26 cities that I am not accounting for. If I assume the average of all 49 cities and apply them to the remaining 26 then I get to $457k in gross sales for 1 day.
$457 x 30 days x 3 mnths = $41.1MM in gross sales.
Estimated commission rate is 35% but I am using 32% just to be conservative. With a 32% take I get $13.1 MM in net revenues.
Core revenues (excluding deals) were $28MM in this quarter last year. If I assume a 5% growth above that (even though rev growth rate is about 15-20% over past 5 years), I get total revs including deals of $42.6MM. After adjusting for an moderate increase in expenses over last quarter of $29.4MM, I get total expenses of $30.3MM.
$42.6 - $30.3 = $12.3 MM Net Inc before taxes. After taxes I get $7.96MM.
This equates to EPS of $.50 per share.
I need to see if they can keep this pace up but if they can I'm beginning to think that I need to load the boat on this stock. I'm being conservative in my above calculations and there could be a good deal of upside if commission rate is higher and core revenues grow faster. If they both are 35% and 12% core growth then I get EPS of $0.63, which is insane.
I think the company's local deals are gaining steam so perhaps I should account for July sales being slower than August which is slower than September. But even then the run rate right now should be roughly the average over the quarter.
I'd like to see how sales hold up over the weekend and the rest of the week, though.
If my base case is correct then $0.50 EPS x 4 quarters = $2.00 run rate. A company with this much growth should be trading at 40-50 times EPS, not 16 times...
All that crap about restesting the '09 lows- riiight. Go ahead and sell your positions. No worries, man. I'll buy you a seat at the TT, make that the DT Christmas party.
Have you considered or taken into account refunds and/or cancelled sales (however small they would be)that would take place after you see the gross number of deals sold?
Also, wouldn't SG+A grow quite a bit more than modeled due to the big increase in staff quarter over quarter?
Jesse - I'm going to try to temper my enthusiasm as I don't know if these numbers spike on Fridays or whatever the case may be. So I'll track them one weekend day and then maybe another day or two during the week...
I didn't account for refunds/rebates but thought about it. I figure by excluding the deals that were pulled from the site because they hit the max then I'm being conservative enough because they account for about 10-15% of the deals. Also I'm being conservative on their commission...
RE: Expenses..I think my estimates for these are fairly accurate because cost of goods sold has been pretty steady at $2.4 Million and I assumed a bump to $2.5 MM. Then for SG&A I assumed an increase from last quarter of about $800k. The SG&A line as a % of sales has been decreasing and I used this trend in my calculation. Also the company gave the impression that their ramp up in salespeople was almost over on the 2Q CC. I could be slightly off so perhaps it would be wise to add an additional $500k. That would knock EPS down about $0.02.
Short figures only come out periodically, once a month I believe. When i owned tzoo IN THE 90s there was 80% short interest then. I highly doubt there is the same amount in the 30s although its daily chart looks ugly with no reversal in sight. Another impulse lower is more likely, so maybe they are piling in again.
From polytricks, a study in decoding ruling class propaganda:
“What is the good of having an economy which grows by 80% if your unemployment – people excluded from active economic life – goes from 420,000 to 5.1million?
You go and you create a corporation in China. And you build a factory in China. And what do you want to sell, mugs? You sell mugs in China. And you conquer part of the Chinese market by competing fair and square in China. That’s life. That’s adding to the activity of China. You’re a corporate citizen over there, you’re working over there.”
“But if you move a factory from the States and take that to China, not so as to conquer the chinese market but so as to re-import the goods into the States, so as to get cheap labor, what are you doing? What you are doing is you are saying to your employees here, ‘You’re too expensive, folks. You want money. You want protection. You want unions. You want holidays. Forget it! We can employ 47 people over there (for each one of you) who want nothing.’”
“So, don’t confuse 2 issues. One is going out to participate in their growing economies by building there and conquering part of the market. The other is merely killing off employment in your own country, getting rid of your own labor force – transferring it over there and importing it back – purely so as to increase your profit margins.”
JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and Credit Suisse as the lead underwriters.
Others include:ALLEN & COMPANY LLC, BofA MERRILL LYNCH, BARCLAYS CAPITAL, CITI, DEUTSCHE BANK SECURITIES, WILLIAM BLAIR & COMPANY, CITADEL SECURITIES, LOOP CAPITAL MARKETS, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, THE WILLIAMS CAPITAL GROUP, L.P.
GRPN will perhaps be a $20 billion ipo, "the biggest since Google and Visa".
How do the lead underwriters inflate the valuation? They make sure that the only "public comp" has an inflated valuation as well. They need enthusiasm in the entire sector during their road show.
How would or could they go about doing this?
1) Induce Benchmark capital and/or other TZOO sell- side cheerleaders to release rosy metric updates in spur of the moment mid-quarter reports.
2) Initiate TZOO coverage at one of the lead underwriters.
3) Boost TZOO's sales trends. Juicing the quarter(s) by purchasing TZOO deals on the open market ensuring a huge beat.
4) Juice TZOO shares by purchasing/supporting them on the public market.
Remember that this is potentially a $20 billion ipo with much at stake. Its only other public comp will have a big effect on its public valuation. By spending $5 million on TZOO deals and/or spending $20 million on TZOO shares in the open market, they could conceivably boost GRPN valuation by say $5 billion. That is a huge return on investment.
Unfortunately, the daily chart still looks sick. Let's see how this all plays out....
I updated the TZOO sales for the past 22 hours to take into account a slow Friday night/weekend and the sales have definitely slowed down. I calculated a total of $1.4 Million in sales for active deals as of 11 AM this morning (PST) versus $1.288 MM as of 12:15 PM yesterday. After taking into account the Direct Purchases (again, I just estimated sales for these to be whatever the average was for the other active non direct deals) and estimating the sales of deals that were pulled (I used 0.6 times the average deal of the other deals to account for deals pulled halfway through the time period etc), the total change in sales in the 22.75 hour period were:
$171,200
If you extrapolate this over 75 cities (I'm tracking 49) you get a run rate of $8.3 MM per month which equates to about $8 MM in Net Sales per quarter after a commission of 32%. If you add in the core business and assume a growth rate of 6% on those, then you get sales of $37.6 MM for the quarter, which would be below estimates of $39.5 MM. This compares to yesterdays estimate of $42.6 MM assume the same things as above (but not estimating for the deals removed, which is conservative).
So which is correct? I'd say it's probably somewhere in between, which would put them on target for the quarter's estimates. I'm being conservative in my commission rate and Core Sales growth rate to reduce risk...
I'm going to try to track this each day for the next 6 days so that I can get a full week's worth of sales.
By the way, some of the deals on their site a really good deals. Not sure if you guys use these deal sites but I've seen some things that I would probably buy if it were in my area.
Here are a couple: LA Area: "Long Beach's Gaucho Grill blends gourmet Argentinian cuisine with a chic ambience. This popular eatery welcomes Travelzoo subscribers with a $35 three-course dinner for two that would regularly cost $71. Choose nearly anything on the menu and two glasses of wine from a list of California and Argentinian producers.
• Any shared appetizer, including the empanadas souffle or calamari fritte
• Two entrees, such as the Argentinian grilled short ribs; 8-ounce New York strip steak; or Mahi Mahi with red and yellow bell peppers, a white wine and Dijon sauce, and sauteed asparagus (up to $19 each)
• Any shared dessert, including the caramelized apple crepe with vanilla ice cream or the chocolate souffle with a molten center and French vanilla ice cream
• Two glasses of wine or beers (up to $8 each)"
San Fran area: The Deal
Skip the trip to the store and order six bottles of premium wine with this Local Deal from Virgin Wines, part of the world-renowned Virgin brand. Virgin Wines, which just arrived in the U.S. last year, is now offering Travelzoo subscribers a case of wine worth up to $94 for only $29. Sales tax and shipping charges of $19.99 are not included.
Choose one of three premium cases with this deal:
The red case features: • Vina Ecoyen Reserva (Spain) • Tierra del Corazon Gran Reserva Cabernet (Chile) • Croix de St. Sylvestre Côtes du Rhône Les Galets (France) • Les Arbousiers Coteaux du Languedoc (France) • Morin Pere et Fils Pinot Noir (France) • Duca di Saverio Chianti (Italy)
The white case includes: • Alta Tierra Sauvignon Blanc (Chile) • Miudino Albarino (Spain) • Hot Seat White Blend (Australia) • Mayacamas Ridge Vineyard Selection Chardonnay (California) • Crowded Hour Clare Riesling (Australia) • D'Aria Pinot Grigio (Italy)
"Amazon couldn’t make a Kindle here if it wanted to Decades of outsourcing manufacturing have left U.S. industry without the means to invent the next generation of high-tech products that are key to rebuilding its economy, as noted by Gary Pisano and Willy Shih in a classic article, “Restoring American Competitiveness” (Harvard Business Review, July-August 2009)"
Remember that Benchmark capital said that July was quite a bit slower than August. So, it looks like there's a very good chance that they miss their numbers. They're also buying back shares which is usually the kiss of death for high growth companies (trying to buy eps rather than invest in growth of biz).
That being said, it may be a good trade for awhile based on its technicals, GRPN, and general market conditions.
Jesse - if the thursday numbers hold up for the whole week they will crush estimates. I think benchmark didn't say quite a bit slower...not sure what wording was...
Regarding shs...they have been buying back shs for yrs...used to have 20 mill and cut them down to 16 mill over the yrs...
Drinking Topics - Today I went to buy a bottle of Nadura, though not much of a "hard" liquor drinker. Mission not accomplished. Instead spent $30 for "The Glenlivet", a 12 year old next to the Nadura ($60) and it was on sale for a couple bucks off. Am drinking nice scotch right now with satisfaction. Hiccup. (Remember I'm 2 hours ahead of you west coasters.)
Of note: The sales guy seemed to have a handle on the difference between the two and said Nadura was more than twice as nice as what I bought. Hard to believe but I am a sucker for a sale and cheaper too.
Hey guys, the earthquake we experienced out here in the middle of nowhere this week was every bit as fun as the Loma Prieta as far as I'm concerned, this house here was jumping up and down at least a couple of inches when that thing came through here. Of course the housing and infrastructure density here is nothing like that of Northern California, therefore there weren't collapsed bridges and infrastructure, etc., but I'd say it was as much of a shock as the Loma. The Loma was much more like riding on a wave of jello than this was, in contrast to riding this buckboard.
I went out yesterday to have a look around and just about every home with a masonry veneer exterior or chimney had some kind of damage, some of them which I'd call severe. Plenty of fallen chimneys.
This quake may have registered a lower energy figure, but the geography of this area is considerably different from that of Northern California, in that here there are large granite sheets in the bedrock that transmit energy to the surface quite well when they move suddenly. Here where I am, the granite sheet I'm on is only about 50 ft from the surface and is thicker than 350 ft. I know it's at least as thick as 800 ft in many places around here.
It was nothing to sneeze at, we experienced a major buckboard ride out here this past week.
Mark- Soccer practice in the morning. Advanced blue belt testing in the afternoon. Followed by 2 hours of trimming/weeding. Now watching 'A Prophet,' another foreign prison film. Will toast illini with a tumbler of Nadurra when the movie ends.
SVM - I don't know guys, even though there's the Chinese equities stigma thing going on with this one, I can't help but wonder about the captured market this miner may be operating in.
As far as I'm aware(my suspicion), they may not be able to export their PM products from China to the world spot market, so this one may not live up to it's potential.
It's unfortunate, this is the second equity I've bought that BC had thought highly of, and the first one was a disaster as well.
Sheesh, it took me a long time and a lot of work to get over the damage from the first one I was trapped in, now it looks like the same thing is happening to me again on SVM...
Mark - I went through the Loma, and it was no cup of tea, but this one really was a rough ride due to the geology.
I don't think there were any chimneys that weren't at least cracked, if they didn't fall, and I don't recall seeing that following the Loma.
Of course Northern Cali doesn't have as many masonry exteriors as there are here, but many of them here exhibit signs of damage.
Now I'm glad I hadn't opted for a masonry exterior for my home, the wind from this hurricane is blowing over some of these cracked chimney's tonight, LOL!
Yeah, I read a comment somewhere where a Californian said he doesn't get out of bead for anything less than a 6.5, LOL, but I'm here to tell ya, I place it up there just short of Loma.
Now we've had several dozen perhaps aftershocks, and those haven't been anything to write home about, one was 4. something, but none have been enough to damage anything that wasn't already broken.
I was at Candlestick with my dad for the World Series when it hit. I was carrying a beer in each hand and was 'thrown' into the person sitting below the isle from me. I honestly though, 'I can't be THAT drunk'.
We hung out for about an hour and then headed home. Very surreal driving through SF to Marin.
2nd - I wouldn't worry too much about this hurricane, at least as far as I can tell at the moment.
It really doesn't seem all that bad to me from here, we'll know more tomorrow though.
My gauge will be damage to VA beach, that thing always washes away in a normal storm, and if it doesn't at least meet that expectation, we're probably home free in respect to the hurricane (impact on NYC).
We're pretty used to hurricanes coming up the east coast really, they say this one's the strongest in 80 years but it seems to be rapidly falling apart.
Update: Mark: My wife is due Dec 1...it's a baby boy! Drink of Choice: Two month leftover Coronas...no lime...I'm cheap TZOO: I swear this takes all of about 10 mins to update....
Through 46.5 hours, TZOO has done the following in gross sales: $437k (includes estimates for Direct Purchases...again, used same avg as the other deals...and for Deals Removed...just took total deals removed times the avg of the other deals times 0.5 (these didn't amount to much so it didn't impact things much)
Extrapolating this out to a full quarter: $9.95 MM in Net Sales (assumes 32% commission) Core Sales: $29.7MM (assumes 6% growth YoY, conservative) TOTAL Sales: $39.6MM
Analyst Estimates: $39.5MM
The deals are clearly slower on the weekend. I'll continue tracking through next Thursday. I suspect at the current rate it will bring me to an estimate of around $40.5 to $41MM just due to 5 week days and only 2 weekend days, which is above estimates.
Check out the 10k from 2006 and go to p.19. Shares outstanding went from: 2003: 20.5 MM 2004: 18.5 MM 2005: 17.7 MM 2006: 16.7 MM
So Jesse I'm not sure that TZOO buying back 500k shares is going to be the kiss of death for them.
Also I know you mentioned that Benchmark sad July was quite a bit slower than August, but I came across the text of their note and it said:
"Benchmark Co. analyst Frederick Moran observers in an email to clients this morning that the stock is down today on new news or change in its growth prospects, asserting that the selling pressure seems unwarranted. He contends that the company’s Local Deals unit is seeing a spike in demand in the first half of August following a “slight moderation” in July. He advises buying the stock on weakness. "
They do some crazy stuff in the Graphene arena, which is a new material that is supposedly going to revolutionize the world. Here is an interesting article, although I don't understand a lot of it: http://www.arl.army.mil/arlreports/2010/ARL-TR-5047.pdf
There are some big dogs making headway in the Graphene area: http://www.dailymarkets.com/stock/2011/06/09/pkx-extends-into-graphene-market/
We're done going down. I can sense it.
ReplyDeleteI figured I would go ahead and update my TZOO analysis for a full 24 hour period just to see how it updates and the revenues are actually slightly better than the amount I estimated just a few hours ago.
ReplyDeleteThey generated $247k in sales in 49 cities. There were an additional 17 deals that involved direct purchases from vendors that I couldn't track so I just used the average for all other deals and arrived at an estimated $51k in sales for those. I again ignored the deals that were pulled off the site because they hit the vendor's maximum, even though this is pretty conservative. If I were to include them then it would be at least an extra $25k in revenues.
Anyway, I got $298k for 49 cities. They have an additional 26 cities that I am not accounting for. If I assume the average of all 49 cities and apply them to the remaining 26 then I get to $457k in gross sales for 1 day.
$457 x 30 days x 3 mnths = $41.1MM in gross sales.
Estimated commission rate is 35% but I am using 32% just to be conservative. With a 32% take I get $13.1 MM in net revenues.
Core revenues (excluding deals) were $28MM in this quarter last year. If I assume a 5% growth above that (even though rev growth rate is about 15-20% over past 5 years), I get total revs including deals of $42.6MM. After adjusting for an moderate increase in expenses over last quarter of $29.4MM, I get total expenses of $30.3MM.
$42.6 - $30.3 = $12.3 MM Net Inc before taxes.
After taxes I get $7.96MM.
This equates to EPS of $.50 per share.
I need to see if they can keep this pace up but if they can I'm beginning to think that I need to load the boat on this stock. I'm being conservative in my above calculations and there could be a good deal of upside if commission rate is higher and core revenues grow faster. If they both are 35% and 12% core growth then I get EPS of $0.63, which is insane.
I think the company's local deals are gaining steam so perhaps I should account for July sales being slower than August which is slower than September. But even then the run rate right now should be roughly the average over the quarter.
I'd like to see how sales hold up over the weekend and the rest of the week, though.
If my base case is correct then $0.50 EPS x 4 quarters = $2.00 run rate. A company with this much growth should be trading at 40-50 times EPS, not 16 times...
All that crap about restesting the '09 lows- riiight. Go ahead and sell your positions. No worries, man. I'll buy you a seat at the TT, make that the DT Christmas party.
ReplyDeleteHow confident am I? I plan to open an s&m position in TZOO on Monday. Also SVM- based on the CC buzz.
ReplyDeleteAwesome analysis TOF!
ReplyDeleteHave you considered or taken into account refunds and/or cancelled sales (however small they would be)that would take place after you see the gross number of deals sold?
Also, wouldn't SG+A grow quite a bit more than modeled due to the big increase in staff quarter over quarter?
Nice job.
Speaking of which- do you realize we also write day in/day out, dispensing advice on both TT and DT, for no compensation whatsoever?
ReplyDeleteMy thoughts are that the potential fuel would be if GRPN ipo is back on.
ReplyDeleteJesse - I'm going to try to temper my enthusiasm as I don't know if these numbers spike on Fridays or whatever the case may be. So I'll track them one weekend day and then maybe another day or two during the week...
ReplyDeleteI didn't account for refunds/rebates but thought about it. I figure by excluding the deals that were pulled from the site because they hit the max then I'm being conservative enough because they account for about 10-15% of the deals. Also I'm being conservative on their commission...
RE: Expenses..I think my estimates for these are fairly accurate because cost of goods sold has been pretty steady at $2.4 Million and I assumed a bump to $2.5 MM. Then for SG&A I assumed an increase from last quarter of about $800k. The SG&A line as a % of sales has been decreasing and I used this trend in my calculation. Also the company gave the impression that their ramp up in salespeople was almost over on the 2Q CC. I could be slightly off so perhaps it would be wise to add an additional $500k. That would knock EPS down about $0.02.
I didn't realize 80% of TZOO's shares were in the hands of shorts. Another plus.
ReplyDelete2nd - Yep...just about every high flier that I've ever tracked has had a huge short interest.
ReplyDeleteAnother plus:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Done-deal-Facebook-kills-off-apf-1395989156.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=
What's DT?
ReplyDeletedrinkingtopics.blogspot.com, our true calling.
ReplyDeletejeez i thought you're helping run this show...
Short figures only come out periodically, once a month I believe. When i owned tzoo IN THE 90s there was 80% short interest then. I highly doubt there is the same amount in the 30s although its daily chart looks ugly with no reversal in sight. Another impulse lower is more likely, so maybe they are piling in again.
ReplyDeleteI like JJC for a quick trade, in at $53 or so and the out at $55, look to re-enter if we get a nice break above $55.
ReplyDeletegoing to be 105 this weekend, and cloudy, so I'll be doing my charts in the pool
From polytricks, a study in decoding ruling class propaganda:
ReplyDelete“What is the good of having an economy which grows by 80% if your unemployment – people excluded from active economic life – goes from 420,000 to 5.1million?
You go and you create a corporation in China. And you build a factory in China. And what do you want to sell, mugs? You sell mugs in China. And you conquer part of the Chinese market by competing fair and square in China. That’s life. That’s adding to the activity of China. You’re a corporate citizen over there, you’re working over there.”
“But if you move a factory from the States and take that to China, not so as to conquer the chinese market but so as to re-import the goods into the States, so as to get cheap labor, what are you doing? What you are doing is you are saying to your employees here, ‘You’re too expensive, folks. You want money. You want protection. You want unions. You want holidays. Forget it! We can employ 47 people over there (for each one of you) who want nothing.’”
“So, don’t confuse 2 issues. One is going out to participate in their growing economies by building there and conquering part of the market. The other is merely killing off employment in your own country, getting rid of your own labor force – transferring it over there and importing it back – purely so as to increase your profit margins.”
http://polytricks.wordpress.com/1994/11/15/goldsmith-rose/
GRPN IPO lead underwriters:
ReplyDeleteJPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and Credit Suisse as the lead underwriters.
Others include:ALLEN & COMPANY LLC, BofA MERRILL LYNCH, BARCLAYS CAPITAL, CITI, DEUTSCHE BANK SECURITIES, WILLIAM BLAIR & COMPANY, CITADEL SECURITIES, LOOP CAPITAL MARKETS, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, THE WILLIAMS CAPITAL GROUP, L.P.
GRPN will perhaps be a $20 billion ipo, "the biggest since Google and Visa".
How do the lead underwriters inflate the valuation? They make sure that the only "public comp" has an inflated valuation as well. They need enthusiasm in the entire sector during their road show.
How would or could they go about doing this?
1) Induce Benchmark capital and/or other TZOO sell- side cheerleaders to release rosy metric updates in spur of the moment mid-quarter reports.
2) Initiate TZOO coverage at one of the lead underwriters.
3) Boost TZOO's sales trends. Juicing the quarter(s) by purchasing TZOO deals on the open market ensuring a huge beat.
4) Juice TZOO shares by purchasing/supporting them on the public market.
Remember that this is potentially a $20 billion ipo with much at stake. Its only other public comp will have a big effect on its public valuation. By spending $5 million on TZOO deals and/or spending $20 million on TZOO shares in the open market, they could conceivably boost GRPN valuation by say $5 billion. That is a huge return on investment.
Unfortunately, the daily chart still looks sick. Let's see how this all plays out....
TZOO - Jesse - Interesting point, perhaps TZOO is about to become juiced big time, going into the GRPN IPO, huh?
ReplyDeleteImmediately following the hoopla event, TZOO gets shorted back into oblivion.
Makes perfect sense.
I updated the TZOO sales for the past 22 hours to take into account a slow Friday night/weekend and the sales have definitely slowed down. I calculated a total of $1.4 Million in sales for active deals as of 11 AM this morning (PST) versus $1.288 MM as of 12:15 PM yesterday. After taking into account the Direct Purchases (again, I just estimated sales for these to be whatever the average was for the other active non direct deals) and estimating the sales of deals that were pulled (I used 0.6 times the average deal of the other deals to account for deals pulled halfway through the time period etc), the total change in sales in the 22.75 hour period were:
ReplyDelete$171,200
If you extrapolate this over 75 cities (I'm tracking 49) you get a run rate of $8.3 MM per month which equates to about $8 MM in Net Sales per quarter after a commission of 32%. If you add in the core business and assume a growth rate of 6% on those, then you get sales of $37.6 MM for the quarter, which would be below estimates of $39.5 MM. This compares to yesterdays estimate of $42.6 MM assume the same things as above (but not estimating for the deals removed, which is conservative).
So which is correct? I'd say it's probably somewhere in between, which would put them on target for the quarter's estimates. I'm being conservative in my commission rate and Core Sales growth rate to reduce risk...
I'm going to try to track this each day for the next 6 days so that I can get a full week's worth of sales.
By the way, some of the deals on their site a really good deals. Not sure if you guys use these deal sites but I've seen some things that I would probably buy if it were in my area.
ReplyDeleteHere are a couple:
LA Area:
"Long Beach's Gaucho Grill blends gourmet Argentinian cuisine with a chic ambience. This popular eatery welcomes Travelzoo subscribers with a $35 three-course dinner for two that would regularly cost $71. Choose nearly anything on the menu and two glasses of wine from a list of California and Argentinian producers.
• Any shared appetizer, including the empanadas souffle or calamari fritte
• Two entrees, such as the Argentinian grilled short ribs; 8-ounce New York strip steak; or Mahi Mahi with red and yellow bell peppers, a white wine and Dijon sauce, and sauteed asparagus (up to $19 each)
• Any shared dessert, including the caramelized apple crepe with vanilla ice cream or the chocolate souffle with a molten center and French vanilla ice cream
• Two glasses of wine or beers (up to $8 each)"
San Fran area:
The Deal
Skip the trip to the store and order six bottles of premium wine with this Local Deal from Virgin Wines, part of the world-renowned Virgin brand. Virgin Wines, which just arrived in the U.S. last year, is now offering Travelzoo subscribers a case of wine worth up to $94 for only $29. Sales tax and shipping charges of $19.99 are not included.
Choose one of three premium cases with this deal:
The red case features:
• Vina Ecoyen Reserva (Spain)
• Tierra del Corazon Gran Reserva Cabernet (Chile)
• Croix de St. Sylvestre Côtes du Rhône Les Galets (France)
• Les Arbousiers Coteaux du Languedoc (France)
• Morin Pere et Fils Pinot Noir (France)
• Duca di Saverio Chianti (Italy)
The white case includes:
• Alta Tierra Sauvignon Blanc (Chile)
• Miudino Albarino (Spain)
• Hot Seat White Blend (Australia)
• Mayacamas Ridge Vineyard Selection Chardonnay (California)
• Crowded Hour Clare Riesling (Australia)
• D'Aria Pinot Grigio (Italy)
A Chain Reaction of Decline?
ReplyDelete"Amazon couldn’t make a Kindle here if it wanted to
Decades of outsourcing manufacturing have left U.S. industry without the means to invent the next generation of high-tech products that are key to rebuilding its economy, as noted by Gary Pisano and Willy Shih in a classic article, “Restoring American Competitiveness” (Harvard Business Review, July-August 2009)"
http://www.forbes.com/sites/stevedenning/2011/08/17/why-amazon-cant-make-a-kindle-in-the-usa/
American Lemonade Stands Taxed Out of Business:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.forbes.com/sites/erikkain/2011/08/03/the-inexplicable-war-on-lemonade-stands/
Thanks for the update TOF.
ReplyDeleteRemember that Benchmark capital said that July was quite a bit slower than August. So, it looks like there's a very good chance that they miss their numbers. They're also buying back shares which is usually the kiss of death for high growth companies (trying to buy eps rather than invest in growth of biz).
That being said, it may be a good trade for awhile based on its technicals, GRPN, and general market conditions.
Jesse - if the thursday numbers hold up for the whole week they will crush estimates. I think benchmark didn't say quite a bit slower...not sure what wording was...
ReplyDeleteRegarding shs...they have been buying back shs for yrs...used to have 20 mill and cut them down to 16 mill over the yrs...
Everyone having a nice weekend? :)
ReplyDeleteTOF- When's your baby due?
Drinking Topics - Today I went to buy a bottle of Nadura, though not much of a "hard" liquor drinker. Mission not accomplished. Instead spent $30 for "The Glenlivet", a 12 year old next to the Nadura ($60) and it was on sale for a couple bucks off. Am drinking nice scotch right now with satisfaction. Hiccup. (Remember I'm 2 hours ahead of you west coasters.)
ReplyDeleteOf note: The sales guy seemed to have a handle on the difference between the two and said Nadura was more than twice as nice as what I bought. Hard to believe but I am a sucker for a sale and cheaper too.
(Remember I'm 2 hours ahead of you west coasters.)
ReplyDelete"Not that it matters."
Earthquake perspective:
ReplyDeleteHey guys, the earthquake we experienced out here in the middle of nowhere this week was every bit as fun as the Loma Prieta as far as I'm concerned, this house here was jumping up and down at least a couple of inches when that thing came through here. Of course the housing and infrastructure density here is nothing like that of Northern California, therefore there weren't collapsed bridges and infrastructure, etc., but I'd say it was as much of a shock as the Loma. The Loma was much more like riding on a wave of jello than this was, in contrast to riding this buckboard.
I went out yesterday to have a look around and just about every home with a masonry veneer exterior or chimney had some kind of damage, some of them which I'd call severe. Plenty of fallen chimneys.
This quake may have registered a lower energy figure, but the geography of this area is considerably different from that of Northern California, in that here there are large granite sheets in the bedrock that transmit energy to the surface quite well when they move suddenly. Here where I am, the granite sheet I'm on is only about 50 ft from the surface and is thicker than 350 ft. I know it's at least as thick as 800 ft in many places around here.
It was nothing to sneeze at, we experienced a major buckboard ride out here this past week.
illini- You can't leave it all to the grandkids. Buy the Nadurra next time. Not that a 12-year Glenlivet is not already a real treat.
ReplyDeleteillini - You're only renting that stuff anyway!
ReplyDeleteMark- Soccer practice in the morning. Advanced blue belt testing in the afternoon. Followed by 2 hours of trimming/weeding. Now watching 'A Prophet,' another foreign prison film. Will toast illini with a tumbler of Nadurra when the movie ends.
ReplyDelete2nd- Which discipline? Has to really help.
ReplyDeleteDid you ever take a look at your local club? I really like the way the coaches work with the young kids. Seems like a good program.
I'm watching the 49ers...What a disaster.
CP- Interesting take on the 'quake'. I have to admit I was one of the teasers :)
ReplyDeleteSVM - I don't know guys, even though there's the Chinese equities stigma thing going on with this one, I can't help but wonder about the captured market this miner may be operating in.
ReplyDeleteAs far as I'm aware(my suspicion), they may not be able to export their PM products from China to the world spot market, so this one may not live up to it's potential.
It's unfortunate, this is the second equity I've bought that BC had thought highly of, and the first one was a disaster as well.
Sheesh, it took me a long time and a lot of work to get over the damage from the first one I was trapped in, now it looks like the same thing is happening to me again on SVM...
Mark - I went through the Loma, and it was no cup of tea, but this one really was a rough ride due to the geology.
ReplyDeleteI don't think there were any chimneys that weren't at least cracked, if they didn't fall, and I don't recall seeing that following the Loma.
Of course Northern Cali doesn't have as many masonry exteriors as there are here, but many of them here exhibit signs of damage.
Now I'm glad I hadn't opted for a masonry exterior for my home, the wind from this hurricane is blowing over some of these cracked chimney's tonight, LOL!
Tae kwon do.
ReplyDeleteYeah, I enjoyed the Chronicle series on the VA earthquake. The headline photo was a shot of a plastic lawn chair on its side titled 'Lawn disaster.'
Yeah, I read a comment somewhere where a Californian said he doesn't get out of bead for anything less than a 6.5, LOL, but I'm here to tell ya, I place it up there just short of Loma.
ReplyDeleteNow we've had several dozen perhaps aftershocks, and those haven't been anything to write home about, one was 4. something, but none have been enough to damage anything that wasn't already broken.
CP- Well, I believe you.
ReplyDeleteIf Irene picks up speed before hitting DC and NY, it may affect the markets. If there's a Katrina-type event, how could the markets brush it off?
CP- I hear you. The SVM thing just seems 'wrong'.
ReplyDeleteI was at Candlestick with my dad for the World Series when it hit. I was carrying a beer in each hand and was 'thrown' into the person sitting below the isle from me. I honestly though, 'I can't be THAT drunk'.
We hung out for about an hour and then headed home. Very surreal driving through SF to Marin.
I just counted. There's 147 people left at the 49er game right now.
ReplyDeleteNope, make that 142.
2nd - I wouldn't worry too much about this hurricane, at least as far as I can tell at the moment.
ReplyDeleteIt really doesn't seem all that bad to me from here, we'll know more tomorrow though.
My gauge will be damage to VA beach, that thing always washes away in a normal storm, and if it doesn't at least meet that expectation, we're probably home free in respect to the hurricane (impact on NYC).
We're pretty used to hurricanes coming up the east coast really, they say this one's the strongest in 80 years but it seems to be rapidly falling apart.
LOL, BC wants folks to pay for hearing his bad ideas now... That's a great way to hide your screw-ups!
ReplyDeleteFTWR - Is this thing cheap enough yet?!?!?
ReplyDeleteUpdate:
ReplyDeleteMark: My wife is due Dec 1...it's a baby boy!
Drink of Choice: Two month leftover Coronas...no lime...I'm cheap
TZOO: I swear this takes all of about 10 mins to update....
Through 46.5 hours, TZOO has done the following in gross sales:
$437k (includes estimates for Direct Purchases...again, used same avg as the other deals...and for Deals Removed...just took total deals removed times the avg of the other deals times 0.5 (these didn't amount to much so it didn't impact things much)
Extrapolating this out to a full quarter: $9.95 MM in Net Sales (assumes 32% commission)
Core Sales: $29.7MM (assumes 6% growth YoY, conservative)
TOTAL Sales: $39.6MM
Analyst Estimates: $39.5MM
The deals are clearly slower on the weekend. I'll continue tracking through next Thursday. I suspect at the current rate it will bring me to an estimate of around $40.5 to $41MM just due to 5 week days and only 2 weekend days, which is above estimates.
Jesse:
ReplyDeletehttp://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1133311/000089161807000161/f27568e10vk.htm#110
Check out the 10k from 2006 and go to p.19. Shares outstanding went from:
2003: 20.5 MM
2004: 18.5 MM
2005: 17.7 MM
2006: 16.7 MM
So Jesse I'm not sure that TZOO buying back 500k shares is going to be the kiss of death for them.
Also I know you mentioned that Benchmark sad July was quite a bit slower than August, but I came across the text of their note and it said:
"Benchmark Co. analyst Frederick Moran observers in an email to clients this morning that the stock is down today on new news or change in its growth prospects, asserting that the selling pressure seems unwarranted. He contends that the company’s Local Deals unit is seeing a spike in demand in the first half of August following a “slight moderation” in July. He advises buying the stock on weakness. "
Dudes - VERY interesting company here:
ReplyDeleteCVV
They do some crazy stuff in the Graphene arena, which is a new material that is supposedly going to revolutionize the world. Here is an interesting article, although I don't understand a lot of it:
http://www.arl.army.mil/arlreports/2010/ARL-TR-5047.pdf
There are some big dogs making headway in the Graphene area:
http://www.dailymarkets.com/stock/2011/06/09/pkx-extends-into-graphene-market/
http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/59488/IBM+to+Use+Graphene+in+PCs