Japan and Australia are "only" down between 1 and 1.5% tonight.
Plus more support for the low valuations from Jeremy Siegel
Jeremy Siegel says in the accompanying video. "Stocks are 25% to 30% below what I'd call 'fair market value' and that might be conservative in terms of earnings power and relative interest rates."
'If it is true, it would be another sign of desperation. The Charlotte Observer reports that Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) could lay-off 30,000 people over several years.
The bank has come under new pressure as the government announced a suit against 17 financial firms which it claims misrepresented the risk of mortgage-back securities they sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The total losses from these was $200 billion. The possibility that the government can recoup of all that is unknown.
Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) has been rumored to need over $100 billion in new capital. There have also been rumors that the firm could be taken over by JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM) or another large American bank. B of A has attacked these as false, but its share price has done little to allay fears. The stock fell to $6.01 three weeks ago. Warren Buffett invested $5 billion in the bank which cause share to rally. Subsequent bad news pushed shares, which had recovered to $8.39, back to $7.25. The stock's 52-week high is $15.31.
Bank of America can continue to deny it will need to raise large sums of money, an act which would nearly wipe out common shareholders. The firm's stock says many investors have bet otherwise.'
Soccer was great. Woo played really hard and actually started the last game. They lost all 3 games, but she had a blast. Kendra's team came in 3rd. they lost one game 3-2 to a really good team with girls that seems a 'little' older. Kendra scored both goals in that game. The consolation game came down to PK's and Kendra was in goal. She stopped 3!
I'll post some picks.
How's this for crazy? We just got back from a party one of Kendra's friends parents had. I met one of the dads of a girl that play's for Kendra's club. He's been a full time trader for himself for 12 years.
Moved back from 25% long into 100% cash...Sold my CVV at $18.2 to $18.6 after seeing the CEO registered to sell another 350k shares. I sold my RAS at $3.4 and sold my C at $26.9. I actually made a little money on my trades because my CVV was larger than the other positions.
I don't see the greatest set up to go long right now but if it happens I will be long.
Added some more BGZ..now at 7% of portfolio. Gonna just stick with that amount and continue searching for good values...would love to see my favorite companies 20-30% cheaper.
When I began tracking CDS spreads a month or two ago, Italy and Spain were at 270 and that was considered dangerous. Now at 450 and 420, they are higher than Greece was in April 2010.
Nice to see gold pulling back today as well, even with the Swiss Franc news - implies maybe the "risk-off" macro trading is slowing. Plus if today holds, this is the third higher low in the major indexes.
Today is another reminder to me that it's best to just wait for long opportunities to come up because you're fighting against too many forces on the short side. Every government in the world is spending money to see that the markets dont go down...
Anyway, I'm gonna sit with my 21% long BGZ at $45.3 avg and wait it out...let's see if my favorite companies can sell off over the next couple of weeks.
2nd - I'm trying to profit from euphoria, of course. I think the markets are unfortunately going a good deal lower. All inverse ETFs are looking like great longs.
The International Monetary Fund has called on the US and Europe to abandon fiscal austerity and switch to stimulus measures, warning that the global economy faces a "threatening downward spiral".
"The International Monetary Fund has called on the US and Europe to abandon fiscal austerity and switch to stimulus measures, warning that the global economy faces a "threatening downward spiral".
Which is exactly contrary to what Hussman is recommending. So I guess gold and silver are going a good deal higher.
I am silent today because I don't have any trading positions left, and so I am only watching my main long-term investment, ECU. Today the ECU.TO shareholders were supposed to see their ECU.TO holdings exchanged for AUM.TO.
I am also watching for the initial reaction in the AUM.TO stock to the completion of the merger -- so far it looks like it was a nonevent. However, on Friday Golden Minerals put out a press release with the first ever production guidance (which ECU has not been doing), and I am thinking this should significantly reduce the uncertainty about the combined company. If they are able to deliver according to their guidance, then in 2 years their stock should be MUCH higher. So I am just waiting...
we HAVE to be in a bear market cuz these hope filled rallies are sharp and furious, but ultimately lead to more selling.
2nd - my position in BGZ is 21% of the port. Right now its down 3.4% meaning my port is down 0.7% as a result. The risk is more than manageable even if we rally to 1,200.
The other thing I keep thinking is, if things are so bad out there, why do most companies continue to report good news?
Check out the CEO from Autonation on CNBC this morning. Thinks a lot of the slowdown is due to Honda and Toyota not having cars, which meant other auto makers raised prices and cut marketing (plus they had their own supply issues) and we bounce back this quarter.
The 2 Toyota plant's near me announced they expect to be back to full production this month and are scheduling planned overtime. This is in contrast to the last 3 months where people could take extended vacation if they wanted or come in and help with maintenance work.
BB - In my mind the day traders are euphoric in that the mkt rallied from 114.4 to 117 and they defended the bottom of the bear flag well. that's all i meant by that.
i also think that the general consensus is that 2008 can't happen again...that corporate balance sheets are strong enough to defend against that and that we don't have as much leverage in the system.
ultimately, i think that consensus will be challenged, which is why I'm remaining mostly in cash in the chance that I can pick up some really good companies at bargain basement prices...there are companies like MITK that can outperform the mkt and then some, but it's very hard for any company to do that when the general trend of the market is down.
Hm... I would say the US market action today was pretty positive, given the fact that Greek bond yields are pricing a near-term default in Greece. On the other hand, the action in DB today was pretty poor. But then, DB has much more sensitivity to the Greek default than S&P.
David - I think we need to look at a picture longer than one day....lots of money can be thrown at the ES futures to make it appear like things are ok in the short term (i.e., "well it's bullish cuz we didn't close at the lows")...longer term it looks to me like we're working off an oversold condition by going sideways. The reverse of that as we were going higher was bullish as the market never came in. So in this case I would argue it's bearish as the market never reversed higher.
Housing market bottom formation? Having been a homeowner (and slumlord) for many decades, I'm not one to bet on it b/c I have no difficulty understanding how unemployment can lead to default...:
"California Employment at Record Low September 5th, 2011 Via: Bloomberg:
The percentage of working-age Californians with jobs has fallen to a record low, and employment may not return to pre-recession levels until the second half of the decade, according to a research group.
Just 55.4 percent of working-age Californians, defined as those 16 or older, had a job in July, down from 56.2 percent a year earlier and the lowest level since 1976, the Sacramento- based California Budget Project said in a report released late yesterday.
California’s 12 percent unemployment rate in July, the nation’s second-highest after Nevada, compared with 9.1 percent nationwide. The most-populous state lost 1.4 million jobs during the recession that began three years ago, and has gained back only 226,800, or about 17 percent, according to the report."
CP - I always wonder why there are so many people at the beach or walking around town during the middle of the day out here in San Diego...I always thought they are living on the dole...sounds like this is true..
Mark - yeah I can't quite get my head around the offerings RAS has man...
Side note - we finished up our books for August and we had yet another solid month for our furniture business...we aren't seeing much of a slowdown here...
The other thought is we are bottoming as we did in 1978/1979 as per Jeff Saut at Raymond James who has had a good read on the market the last couple of years.
I like Saut and read him every week, but I don't quite understand why he compares this period with 1978/1979 just from looking at the charts. Both instances in 78/79 had a 10 to 12% drop after modest rallies....not really sure why he sees that as a parallel.
BTW: when is DANG going to get de-listed? It sure seems it's headed that way
I think he's using them because the pullback then came on no news (which he considers the same this time) and while the charts aren't perfect, they're not a bad match.
in looking at the market, it looks a lot like the period around January to February 2008. back then the market had a rolling top and then a big drop in January...the market stabilized, then retested it's Jan lows in March before rallying for a couple of months.
"I always thought they are living on the dole...sounds like this is true.. "
Surely stimulus money can put to better use. Although I can't speak for every example however, I can't help but wonder about the sanity of extending unemployment benefits and social programs when so many bridges, roads, sewage treatment facilities need replacing, or modernization in some way. A prerequisite for spending should involve putting able-bodied people to work. Everybody has to eat, make them work for it.
Flooded sewage treatment facilities from the hurricanes were overwhelmed, releasing raw sewage into rivers, seems every summer there are algae blooms resulting in oxygen starvation in the Chesapeake Bay and GOM due to excessive nitrate levels...
one company i'm keeping my eye on is PFCB...i love their food and the Pei Wei restaurant they have is doing well in the San Diego area every time i go...
DANG - I don't follow Chinese stock much anymore because the field can be such a minefield, but DANG trades at $7, a long way from being delisted? I suppose like most, they've been accused of fraud, but apparently(because DANG is still trading) those claims have gone unproven, or have been addressed?
All one has to do, is correctly guess when the sellers are done?
ASTE - I was looking at this one today, wondering if the aversion to stimulate via conventional infrastructure projects (as opposed to throwing money at unproven technologies) might gain popularity...
CP - The issue with DANG from what I remember is their corporate structure...they are structured as a VIE and there is a lot of talk about how VIE's domiciled in the Caymans or some offshore location structured their entity such that the offshore entity owns the rights to the profits of the underlying company while the shareholders of the company are not entitled to anything.
If we're drawing parallels to other periods of time just in terms of trading, I'd argue that the trading over the past few months has been very similar to late 1973/early 1974 (and even like the summer/fall of 1937). In both instances we had a large multi year rally...then a topping pattern, and then a long multi week/month slow pullback, followed by a large throwback rally. At that point the market tanked.
In 1974, after the throwback rally ended in late October 1974, the market dropped 20% pretty quickly then staged a multi month sideways trading range...before finally giving way to 25% lower prices. The equivalent would be a move down to 850 or so.
T3D. Do you have a link for the DB comments?
ReplyDelete2nd - Nice take but I am more interested in the CLOSE on Tuesday.
ReplyDeleteWell, at least there's a huge gap to be filled at some point ;)
ReplyDeleteillini- I have a very relaxed perspective on market movements these days. As in confidently all-in even in the face of brutal sell offs.
ReplyDeleteIf you were to ask 'Why,' I wouldn't know where to begin. Just one of those things.
ReplyDeleteMark, actually it came off a bloomberg terminal from a contact in Europe who let me know.
ReplyDeleteGoogle ackerman & Deutsche bank has an article by reuters that's negative.
Like hearing Jerry Garcia's off-key intro spilling off in the distance and knowing a driving bass will kick in soon enough.
ReplyDeleteLook for some things on the bright side.
ReplyDeleteJapan and Australia are "only" down between 1 and 1.5% tonight.
Plus more support for the low valuations from Jeremy Siegel
Jeremy Siegel says in the accompanying video. "Stocks are 25% to 30% below what I'd call 'fair market value' and that might be conservative in terms of earnings power and relative interest rates."
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/jeremy-siegel-stocks-cheap-getting-cheaper-143255489.html
Will be an interesting day tomorrow. Glad I was too busy enjoying the holiday to pay attention to Europe.
Does anyone know where you can see how the European futures are looking overnight?
use "ackerman Deutsche bank" and bing to search.
ReplyDeleteWould post the link but's its on my trading computer and keep that computer clean and this one does use explorer.
How the kids do this weekend at soccer?
Rumor mongering...
ReplyDelete'If it is true, it would be another sign of desperation. The Charlotte Observer reports that Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) could lay-off 30,000 people over several years.
The bank has come under new pressure as the government announced a suit against 17 financial firms which it claims misrepresented the risk of mortgage-back securities they sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The total losses from these was $200 billion. The possibility that the government can recoup of all that is unknown.
Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) has been rumored to need over $100 billion in new capital. There have also been rumors that the firm could be taken over by JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM) or another large American bank. B of A has attacked these as false, but its share price has done little to allay fears. The stock fell to $6.01 three weeks ago. Warren Buffett invested $5 billion in the bank which cause share to rally. Subsequent bad news pushed shares, which had recovered to $8.39, back to $7.25. The stock's 52-week high is $15.31.
Bank of America can continue to deny it will need to raise large sums of money, an act which would nearly wipe out common shareholders. The firm's stock says many investors have bet otherwise.'
Is that what they call value trap?
ReplyDeleteFound one, thanks T3D.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-05/european-banks-under-assault-in-markets-that-remind-ackermann-of-late-2008.html
Soccer was great. Woo played really hard and actually started the last game. They lost all 3 games, but she had a blast. Kendra's team came in 3rd. they lost one game 3-2 to a really good team with girls that seems a 'little' older. Kendra scored both goals in that game. The consolation game came down to PK's and Kendra was in goal. She stopped 3!
I'll post some picks.
How's this for crazy? We just got back from a party one of Kendra's friends parents had. I met one of the dads of a girl that play's for Kendra's club. He's been a full time trader for himself for 12 years.
No. More like 'value trap' bait for a bear trap ;)
ReplyDeleteTrading 12 years, and has a daughter not much younger? Must be doing OK.
ReplyDeleteWoo…
ReplyDeletehttp://www.screencast.com/t/udRUAfuK2
http://www.screencast.com/t/pGs6wj7ejNXS
http://www.screencast.com/t/jxclxDqGbDra
http://www.screencast.com/t/jxclxDqGbDra
And the best one with my dad..
http://www.screencast.com/t/wGZ9ya72pAm
Stumble In
ReplyDeletehttp://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2011/09/05/BUFD1KV62P.DTL&tsp=1
Kendra in the PK’s…
ReplyDeletehttp://www.screencast.com/t/tfJhNEs1l
http://www.screencast.com/t/kxeSETKZUPNi
http://www.screencast.com/t/42TkO6F5t
http://www.screencast.com/t/fyaEfs6dy
http://www.screencast.com/t/7OGnTaxs
Pretty cool site 2nd.
ReplyDeleteYeah, looks interesting and some of my facebook friends (mainly the 22 year-olds) use it.
ReplyDeleteI signed up for "business" as an interest. Hopefully it can't point me in the right direction for this market.
great pix Mark - perhaps you could land a part time gig with the IJ?
ReplyDeleteObviously, my take was wrong.
ReplyDeleteEurope was green, interesting... I was actually surprised by that.
ReplyDeleteAugust ISM 53.3%
ReplyDeleteMaybe pick up something at the close for a quick turn around on Tue.
ReplyDeleteBout all I can think of.
Price of copper suggests world economy on right track
ReplyDeletehttp://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/price-of-copper-suggests-world-economy-on-right-track/article2153962/
Moved back from 25% long into 100% cash...Sold my CVV at $18.2 to $18.6 after seeing the CEO registered to sell another 350k shares. I sold my RAS at $3.4 and sold my C at $26.9. I actually made a little money on my trades because my CVV was larger than the other positions.
ReplyDeleteI don't see the greatest set up to go long right now but if it happens I will be long.
I will say though, some energy names are getting pretty cheap here.
ReplyDeleteBEXP/PXP/WLL/CLR/APA are fav's.
Add MOG fav NFX to the list above.
ReplyDeleteGermany's DAX is down 32% now from it's high. The equivalent drop for the S&P would be a drop to 940.
ReplyDeleteYeah, I did the same DAX calc last night.
ReplyDeleteLong small starter BGZ position at $45.79...
ReplyDeleteSorry but traders are looking forward to the president's speech on jobs growth? Really?
ReplyDeleteAdded a little more BGZ at $45.52..now 97% in cash.
ReplyDeleteAdded some more BGZ..now at 7% of portfolio. Gonna just stick with that amount and continue searching for good values...would love to see my favorite companies 20-30% cheaper.
ReplyDeleteAdded some more BGZ at $45.2
ReplyDeleteGold - A little pullback? Made new all-time highs, topping out at $1923.70
ReplyDeleteman...DECK is one volatile stock. There's someone out there that made a ton on those movements.
ReplyDeleteAdded some more BGZ at $45.25...now at 11% long BGZ....avg is $45.58
ReplyDeleteAgain, not cool:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=.ITAGER10:IND
Also, CDS Spreads:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38451750
When I began tracking CDS spreads a month or two ago, Italy and Spain were at 270 and that was considered dangerous. Now at 450 and 420, they are higher than Greece was in April 2010.
Not good.
Added another 2% to my BGZ long at $44.87...now 13% long
ReplyDeleteAdded another 2% long BGZ at $45.16. now 15% long.
ReplyDeleteNow 18% long BGZ...added some more at $44.74
ReplyDeletejeez....rally is getting strong now....added another 3% to my BGZ long at $44.48
ReplyDeleteGuess there's too many bears out there...which means we probably don't sell off anymore in the very short term.
ReplyDeleteNice to see gold pulling back today as well, even with the Swiss Franc news - implies maybe the "risk-off" macro trading is slowing. Plus if today holds, this is the third higher low in the major indexes.
ReplyDeleteDamn you fellas are quiet today...
ReplyDeleteToday is another reminder to me that it's best to just wait for long opportunities to come up because you're fighting against too many forces on the short side. Every government in the world is spending money to see that the markets dont go down...
Anyway, I'm gonna sit with my 21% long BGZ at $45.3 avg and wait it out...let's see if my favorite companies can sell off over the next couple of weeks.
Interesting article by Hussman over the weekend...I'm sure David read it:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc110905.htm
BGZ- What are you trying to accomplish, tof? You can only mess with scumbag 3x ETFs 5-10 minutes at a time.
ReplyDeleteChirp.
ReplyDelete2nd - I'm trying to profit from euphoria, of course. I think the markets are unfortunately going a good deal lower. All inverse ETFs are looking like great longs.
ReplyDeleteThe International Monetary Fund has called on the US and Europe to abandon fiscal austerity and switch to stimulus measures, warning that the global economy faces a "threatening downward spiral".
ReplyDeletehttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8740736/IMF-global-economy-faces-a-threatening-downward-spiral.html
There's nothing Obama can say.
ReplyDelete"The International Monetary Fund has called on the US and Europe to abandon fiscal austerity and switch to stimulus measures, warning that the global economy faces a "threatening downward spiral".
ReplyDeleteWhich is exactly contrary to what Hussman is recommending. So I guess gold and silver are going a good deal higher.
I am silent today because I don't have any trading positions left, and so I am only watching my main long-term investment, ECU. Today the ECU.TO shareholders were supposed to see their ECU.TO holdings exchanged for AUM.TO.
ReplyDeleteI am also watching for the initial reaction in the AUM.TO stock to the completion of the merger -- so far it looks like it was a nonevent. However, on Friday Golden Minerals put out a press release with the first ever production guidance (which ECU has not been doing), and I am thinking this should significantly reduce the uncertainty about the combined company. If they are able to deliver according to their guidance, then in 2 years their stock should be MUCH higher. So I am just waiting...
David, does AUM trade here?
ReplyDelete% of High S&P Equivalent
ReplyDeleteFrance 71.33% 977
Swiss 79.95% 1,095
Germany 69.33% 950
FTSE 84.43% 1,157
Hang Seng 78.80% 1,080
Nikkei 79.63% 1,091
Kospi 78.99% 1,082
Taiwan 80.56% 1,104
AVERAGE 1,067
New low for MS.
ReplyDeleteMark, AUM.TO trades in US as AUMN.
ReplyDeleteConsider closing BGZ before the close/after hours. I think it gaps down Tuesday.
ReplyDeleteAs you know, you would have made a lot of money fading my last call.
ReplyDeletewe HAVE to be in a bear market cuz these hope filled rallies are sharp and furious, but ultimately lead to more selling.
ReplyDelete2nd - my position in BGZ is 21% of the port. Right now its down 3.4% meaning my port is down 0.7% as a result. The risk is more than manageable even if we rally to 1,200.
TOF, don't see a lot of euphoria out there. I go the other way and see we see more negativity and despondency.
ReplyDeleteNice strong finish to the market today.
ReplyDeleteThe other thing I keep thinking is, if things are so bad out there, why do most companies continue to report good news?
Check out the CEO from Autonation on CNBC this morning. Thinks a lot of the slowdown is due to Honda and Toyota not having cars, which meant other auto makers raised prices and cut marketing (plus they had their own supply issues) and we bounce back this quarter.
The 2 Toyota plant's near me announced they expect to be back to full production this month and are scheduling planned overtime. This is in contrast to the last 3 months where people could take extended vacation if they wanted or come in and help with maintenance work.
BB - In my mind the day traders are euphoric in that the mkt rallied from 114.4 to 117 and they defended the bottom of the bear flag well. that's all i meant by that.
ReplyDeletei also think that the general consensus is that 2008 can't happen again...that corporate balance sheets are strong enough to defend against that and that we don't have as much leverage in the system.
ultimately, i think that consensus will be challenged, which is why I'm remaining mostly in cash in the chance that I can pick up some really good companies at bargain basement prices...there are companies like MITK that can outperform the mkt and then some, but it's very hard for any company to do that when the general trend of the market is down.
Hm... I would say the US market action today was pretty positive, given the fact that Greek bond yields are pricing a near-term default in Greece. On the other hand, the action in DB today was pretty poor. But then, DB has much more sensitivity to the Greek default than S&P.
ReplyDeleteDavid - I think we need to look at a picture longer than one day....lots of money can be thrown at the ES futures to make it appear like things are ok in the short term (i.e., "well it's bullish cuz we didn't close at the lows")...longer term it looks to me like we're working off an oversold condition by going sideways. The reverse of that as we were going higher was bullish as the market never came in. So in this case I would argue it's bearish as the market never reversed higher.
ReplyDeleteHousing market bottom formation? Having been a homeowner (and slumlord) for many decades, I'm not one to bet on it b/c I have no difficulty understanding how unemployment can lead to default...:
ReplyDelete"California Employment at Record Low
September 5th, 2011
Via: Bloomberg:
The percentage of working-age Californians with jobs has fallen to a record low, and employment may not return to pre-recession levels until the second half of the decade, according to a research group.
Just 55.4 percent of working-age Californians, defined as those 16 or older, had a job in July, down from 56.2 percent a year earlier and the lowest level since 1976, the Sacramento- based California Budget Project said in a report released late yesterday.
California’s 12 percent unemployment rate in July, the nation’s second-highest after Nevada, compared with 9.1 percent nationwide. The most-populous state lost 1.4 million jobs during the recession that began three years ago, and has gained back only 226,800, or about 17 percent, according to the report."
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-04/california-employment-level-sinks-to-record-low-as-fewer-women-find-jobs.html
CP - I always wonder why there are so many people at the beach or walking around town during the middle of the day out here in San Diego...I always thought they are living on the dole...sounds like this is true..
ReplyDeleteRAS has a $600M offer out? That's triple it's market cap. Hun??
ReplyDeleteMark - yeah I can't quite get my head around the offerings RAS has man...
ReplyDeleteSide note - we finished up our books for August and we had yet another solid month for our furniture business...we aren't seeing much of a slowdown here...
The other thought is we are bottoming as we did in 1978/1979 as per Jeff Saut at Raymond James who has had a good read on the market the last couple of years.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.raymondjames.com/inv_strat.htm
I like Saut and read him every week, but I don't quite understand why he compares this period with 1978/1979 just from looking at the charts. Both instances in 78/79 had a 10 to 12% drop after modest rallies....not really sure why he sees that as a parallel.
ReplyDeleteBTW: when is DANG going to get de-listed? It sure seems it's headed that way
I think he's using them because the pullback then came on no news (which he considers the same this time) and while the charts aren't perfect, they're not a bad match.
ReplyDeleteyeah i think that's also why i don't get the parallel...no news? really? does he have his head in the sand?
ReplyDeleteanyone throwing out stink bids on DB/CS? CS is getting close to 2009 lows.
in looking at the market, it looks a lot like the period around January to February 2008. back then the market had a rolling top and then a big drop in January...the market stabilized, then retested it's Jan lows in March before rallying for a couple of months.
ReplyDeleteOr STD...pays 7% dividend.
ReplyDeleteJeez...EWP (Spain ETF) pays 7% dividend as well.
"I always thought they are living on the dole...sounds like this is true.. "
ReplyDeleteSurely stimulus money can put to better use. Although I can't speak for every example however, I can't help but wonder about the sanity of extending unemployment benefits and social programs when so many bridges, roads, sewage treatment facilities need replacing, or modernization in some way. A prerequisite for spending should involve putting able-bodied people to work. Everybody has to eat, make them work for it.
Flooded sewage treatment facilities from the hurricanes were overwhelmed, releasing raw sewage into rivers, seems every summer there are algae blooms resulting in oxygen starvation in the Chesapeake Bay and GOM due to excessive nitrate levels...
one company i'm keeping my eye on is PFCB...i love their food and the Pei Wei restaurant they have is doing well in the San Diego area every time i go...
ReplyDeleteDANG - I don't follow Chinese stock much anymore because the field can be such a minefield, but DANG trades at $7, a long way from being delisted? I suppose like most, they've been accused of fraud, but apparently(because DANG is still trading) those claims have gone unproven, or have been addressed?
ReplyDeleteAll one has to do, is correctly guess when the sellers are done?
ASTE - I was looking at this one today, wondering if the aversion to stimulate via conventional infrastructure projects (as opposed to throwing money at unproven technologies) might gain popularity...
ReplyDeleteCP - The issue with DANG from what I remember is their corporate structure...they are structured as a VIE and there is a lot of talk about how VIE's domiciled in the Caymans or some offshore location structured their entity such that the offshore entity owns the rights to the profits of the underlying company while the shareholders of the company are not entitled to anything.
ReplyDeleteIf we're drawing parallels to other periods of time just in terms of trading, I'd argue that the trading over the past few months has been very similar to late 1973/early 1974 (and even like the summer/fall of 1937). In both instances we had a large multi year rally...then a topping pattern, and then a long multi week/month slow pullback, followed by a large throwback rally. At that point the market tanked.
ReplyDeleteIn 1974, after the throwback rally ended in late October 1974, the market dropped 20% pretty quickly then staged a multi month sideways trading range...before finally giving way to 25% lower prices. The equivalent would be a move down to 850 or so.
new post
ReplyDelete