Wednesday, September 7, 2011
09/07/11 Healthcare in the Roaring Twenties
Another reason to look forward to the Twenties-
'Honey, I stopped at the Bar this afternoon.'
'Terrific!'
'We lucked out- Pillzilla was the pharmacist on duty!'
'Yo!'
'He's the only one who takes the time to explain the drinks. Anyway, you know how Medicare won't cover name brand liquor? He says that Kaiser's rolling out a new boilermaker campaign ('We want you to drink and thrive!'), and they think members will be more likely to adhere to Happy Hour with a new combination: 30 mL of Nadurra, followed by 750 mL of IPA. There's no copay as long as you agree to wear a bracelet that records your BAC levels- we just need to download and transmit the data once a day, and they'll continue to mail us monthly supplies as long we maintain target levels.'
Gap and run on Thursday.
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"Hedge Fund Managers are getting more bearish:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/2011/09/07/trimtabs-%E2%80%93-barclayhedge-survey-hedge-funds-getting-more-bearish/
That's potential good news as they will have to join the buying stampede (assuming we get one) into year-end and drive prices even higher. "
BB - I honestly can't make heads or tails of these sentiment readings...I think I also read today that the put / call ratio was at its lowest level today by the close since July...and that the cash balances at mutual funds was at 4%....I can't seem to find where i read that. Anyway, these sentiment readings are all over the place.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/are-stocks-undervalued-2011-09-06?pagenumber=2
ReplyDeletehttp://www.abc15.com/dpp/news/national/experts-relatives-have-questions-about-ca-mansion-suicide
ReplyDeleteEven the brief news clip makes it clear the circumstances surrounding the death are what detectives refer to as 'Hinky.'
tof- You only need to recall how many hedge fund managers 'manage' to beat the market. Then it becomes clear.
ReplyDeleteI wonder if this strategy actually works...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-its-still-too-volatile-to-safely-enter-market-2011-09-06?reflink=MW_news_stmp
2nd - All I'm saying is I am reading varying sentiment levels from varying sources..one says ppl are bearish, another says the best newsletter guys are bullish...I say I could care less...until we get back up above the 200 DMA I'm staying cautious.
ReplyDeleteNot a problem. We'll be back above it within a week.
ReplyDelete2nd - One of these days your gap, gap, gap, gap predictions will come to fruition...I doubt we're ready to do that over this week and next...not with so many other things looming in the rest of Sept...but ya never know
ReplyDeleteYeah, I saw that the Put / Call ratio was down today as well, but it was over 100% for the longest period in 20 years (or something like that) during the last pullback.
ReplyDeleteI think with sentiment, you have to look at the source and time period.
Tim Knight over at Slope of Hope was quite bullish today, but just for the short term as he thinks we are setting up for another big pullback (as he always does). The people who look at the more intermediate to long term indicators think sentiment is more negative.
The Investors Intelligence Survey which have a long track record are definitely showing negative sentiment (From Capital Observer:)
The Investors Intelligence survey has shown a drop in bulls and an increase in bears. Bulls and bears are nearly in a dead heat with 38% bulls and 37% bears. Bears are at levels seen last Summer but bulls are still higher as bulls went under 30% last summer. This indicator is now bullish for the market. I doubt the bears who talked about this survey endlessly 3 weeks ago will mention it now.
Every sentiment indicator is pointing to excessive bearishness. There are few bulls left to convert to bears and it will be much harder to take this market down. I believe the bears need a systemic event to break this market down at the current juncture. Anything but terrible news should take us higher.
Bb I was just listening to bloomberg and they had may bartels (spelling?) Of bank of america on that said that the level of shorts relative to total volume is actually below the 10 yr average of this ratio...and she said that this is bearish for the mkt...
ReplyDeleteAgain the pt is a lot of these indicators are conflicting...and I still think there r way too many things coming up over the rest of the month and next 6 mths to see a rapid rise...I also think there's a lot of buyers at higher pprices looking to get out
Tomorrow night is going to be one of the lamest shows on earth. I never would have thought I'd say this just 4 weeks ago, but, it could be the end of Obama.
ReplyDeleteI know, I know, but bottom line is there is nothing he can say or do to change a damn thing. It's really that simple.
Mark, I would disagree with you. If Obama announces some major tax cuts, that will definitely spur the economy and the stock market in the short term (it will be a disaster in the long term as it will further increase our national debt). If he announces some major infrastructure building efforts that will incite those who are sitting on their asses and collecting unemployment checks to actually go to work and do something useful, that will also stimulate the economy and the stock market.
ReplyDeleteYou see, to capture a big move sometimes requires some maneuvering along the way. This flag may fail to materialize. A harder retest could occur. But, I believe we have topped and I believe periods of shorter-term chart confusion will be resolved to the downside.
ReplyDeletePeter Brandt is my favorite read. He is using Aug 1 High as his line in the sand for shorting market.
http://peterlbrandt.com/trading-as-a-strategic-operation/
"So, I continue to monitor the stock market. If the S&Ps close above the August 1 high my campaign is done and I may not look at the S&Ps again for weeks. You see, I have no interest in being a stock market bull or bear. I have no interest in the stock market. I have an interest in the charts."
He likes SGG here also.
Some how that post got Fuched up. My comment is in the middle of Peter's comment. Please forgive me. Please.
ReplyDeleteI don't understand how Obama can announce $300 billion in tax cuts / job spending when they haven't figured out yet how they are going to save the $2 trillion from the debt agreement.
ReplyDeleteDoesn't make sense to me, but this is politics...
RB - Peter rings a bell for me, but he doesn't tie fundamentals into his thesis, which I think is important.
ReplyDeleteAnyway, Peter's been forecasting SnP 1000, and the fundamentals may just support that level...
Hopefully by then, assuming 1000 does come, I can sell off some of my SVM position in the mid-teens and move back into some other beaten up value plays. BEXP at $22 or close to 52 wk low would be nice... ;)
again...wasn't our debt just downgraded for over spending? and now we're hoping for more spending? can we please just let things fall where they may and get the debt cleared out of the system?
ReplyDeleteUS Debt - All we have to do is print up a few greenbacks and pay the debt off to below sustainable levels.
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't wanna be in cash when/if that happens, and there's the rub...
And yes, SnP proactively downgraded US debt, one of the responses from the peanut gallery seemed to indicate thr downgrade was unjustified b/c the US could simply print to avoid default.
ReplyDeleteAnd of course it seems the do-nothing for the country political party "doesn't want to" spend, b/c they where that leads (note, they're long PM's, aren't they? I guess they know what's coming).
Maybe Rick Perry's Texas provides a glimpse of a world gone mad? Someone always pays the piper, property taxes there are through the roof. Perhaps that's fine, as long as you've got better than min-wage employment.
closed all of my shorts/puts on the open...took the 3% hit to the port.
ReplyDeleteAlright. Let's move 'em up!
ReplyDeletei'll be looking for a better setup long or short...if short I'm going to wait for confirmation of the top and a trend down to start...right now I don't have a call on the market other than in the big picture it looks bad...
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't be surprised if Peter Brandt gets stopped out of his short and gives up, only to be proven right in the first place. ;)
ReplyDeleteSo let's revisit 1300+, then decide?
Get into SSO, then if/when a sell off occurs switch to TNA when SSO <= TNA?
TOF - I am rather surprised though, have you really abandoned your bullish equities earnings projections? I'd like to hear more on that...
David- I agree in the short term. I was making a comment in a longer term time frame. Like longer than 3 days :)
ReplyDeleteCP - My basic theory when it comes to the market is that it's wise to be careful when the market is 3% or more under it's 200 DMA (allows for margin of error)....that doesn't mean you can't make money playing bounces, just that if you're looking to buy and hold for more than a few days/weeks, it's best to do it when the market gets back up above it's 200 DMA. The odds of your trades/investments working are greater in that environment.
ReplyDeleteSo regarding earnings projections > it really doesn't matter what I think if the market is 3%+ below the 200 DMA.
TZOO pt. to $32 from $80 @ Kegan. Gee, thanks guys.
ReplyDeleteBEXP has already completed it's 1 buck range. Crazy.
ReplyDeleteMark - Ha I saw that as well..what a joke these guys are with TZOO estimates/etc.
ReplyDeleteHopped back in CVV...small position this time at $18.09.
ReplyDeleteThrow out a target, any target, for TZOO, and I'll bet I can write a 'research' report to support it.
ReplyDelete2nd - TZOO is a volatile mofo....having said that I suspect that they miss estimates for the quarter yet if they do and the stock drops to $25/27 then it's a good time to buy.
ReplyDeleteGod, this market is like a friggin cockroach.
ReplyDeleteMark / David - I think the point that the Fed, the ECB, our govt, and possibly even China are all looking to add additional stimulus means the odds of us having further downside right now are pretty low. While can't fight the Fed is a cliche that probably doesn't hold up over the longer term....in the short term, can't fight the worlds bankers/governments is a cliche that should provide support for the markets.
ReplyDeleteThe wild card is the high short float.
ReplyDeleteI did a lot of soul searching last night with regards to my portfolio and just came to the conclusion that I need to do the following:
ReplyDelete(a) Use smaller size positions
(b) Buy and hold
Over the years I've done very well in the market and I probably should just keep doing what I'm doing, but I've also had a ton of investments that went up significantly higher than when I sold. For example, I bought GMCR back in 2003 (not kidding)...I made about 20% in the stock, but the problem was I had 100% of my portfolio in the stock. So I sold it because I got scared. If I had held 1/5 of my portfolio in the stock I would have been able to just sit back and watch...The same thing happened with BIDU and MITK. All 3 of those are just a few examples of stocks that ramped up higher and higher over the years despite several big downturns in the market.
So for now I'm going just buy and hold smaller positions in companies whose longer term prospects I believe in. CVV is one of them...
The other upside to this is I don't have to waste time after hours worrying about the overall market, nor do I have to wake up early watching premarket crap and worrying about how the overall market might affect my stocks.
ReplyDeleteThe only worry I have is if this change in strategy will truly work...My strategy for the past 3 years has been very short term in nature...the longest I've held a trade was MITK which was about 2 or 3 months I think...I've somehow managed to be up 140% this year and last year I think I was up 150%...in 09 I was up like 500% I think...I've had very good luck buying large stakes (relative to my whole portfolio) in fast growing companies for shorter time frames, but I'm feeling that this strategy is going to fail me sooner or later...One of these days with this strategy I'm going to load up on the wrong company and take a huge hit. I took a big hit with WNC a month ago that I have managed to almost completely recoup, but it definitely made me question my strategy...anyway, sorry for rambling...just throwing thoughts down in writing helps reinforce my thinking.
Stocks I like longer term:
ReplyDeleteCVV
NLS
CTCT
MMYT
IBKC
BKJ
SUMR
Looking at CRMB right now...company got crushed on earnings and there are some questions I have with the shares outstanding...
Soul searching. Major daily activity in the cell blocks.
ReplyDeleteu guys still follow CREE? any update on their biz?
ReplyDeleteCREE - I think we concluded they must be facing too much competition (and capacity coming into production) from Asia.
ReplyDeleteCSCO, finally breaks its 89 dma. It maybe be finally basing and worth a buy soon or here for those so inclined.
ReplyDeleteCheck out AIS..interesting company...good rev growth and big catalysts..
ReplyDeleteBought a few SPY $119 Sept 30 calls at $3.8 just now...basically just bored at this point while I'm watching for entries on some of my favorite stocks...
ReplyDeleteadded 2 more at $3.55...total of 5 now. huge position!
ReplyDelete"The other upside to this is I don't have to waste time after hours worrying about the overall market, nor do I have to wake up early watching premarket crap and worrying about how the overall market might affect my stocks."
ReplyDeleteThat's my attitude toward the market now. I am heavily invested in one company (called AUMN now), which will be continually growing its y-o-y production of gold and silver, and since I expect the prices of gold and silver to keep going up for years to come, I don't have to worry about day-to-day (or even month-to-month) fluctuations in S&P or in AUMN for that matter, since all of that will be noise on top of the great fundamental trend.
TOF, if you can generate over a cumulative 1000% in 3 years, I don't know that I'd be changing anything.
ReplyDeleteYou may want to stop trading your entire portfolio that way and move some of the profits into safer investments, but it hasn't been an easy 3 years and you've navigated them successfully, so I don't know what else the market could throw at you.
Having said that, it's always good to look for ways to improve, so good luck with whatever you decide to do.
WM - I bet this company struggles if we all decide to move into caves and bury our own trash.
ReplyDeleteWTF did Bernanke say?
ReplyDelete2nd - Not much. Mainly a repeat of the Jackson Hole speech. The general belief is that he is not going to 'get out in front' of the committee again like he did w/ QE2 and any further action would be aligned w/ the FED committee as a whole.
ReplyDeleteBB - Yeah that's what I was initially thinking....I really won't be changing my strategy much at all, but my main issue is putting too much in one stock....I focus primarily on small cap companies with significant revenue growth or significant growth opportunities....those companies are always the most volatile and a move of 40% in either direction, which is highly likely, will cause me to either sell too early or get scared out if my position size is too big. I know some of you guys have 10 or 20+ different positions. That doesn't work for me. I can probably have a max of 5 positions at a time because I spend a lot of time researching and staying up to date with my investments...probably to the point where i obsess about them. Which is another reason why it's smart to keep the sizes smaller because most of the times I sell out of my winners too early is because I research it so much that I find some stupid little thing that scares me out of the stock.
ReplyDeleteHe said we are all fuc_ed.
ReplyDeleteGot gold?
T3d -- Yea, That Too!!! :-)
ReplyDeleteHe also said FORGET Buy-n-Hold...
2nd - I have a feeling your initial thinking of a big run being in store very soon is going to happen man.
ReplyDeleteI would say if we get through today and the speech tonight and finish higher tomorrow then we're most likely going to continue the run up next week...
ReplyDeleteThe forty year Dollar "accommodation" is over.
ReplyDelete“After his presentation, I had a one-on-one conversation with Blanchflower in which we discussed the Fed’s various options. Blanchflower claimed that the Fed would be buying assets again – ‘count on it.’ He claimed that Bernanke had told him two months earlier (June). Blanchflower predicted that the official announcement would likely occur after August (most likely in September) because most of the Fed staff is on vacation in August. Thus, Bernanke’s disclosure last week that the September Fed meeting would be extended to two days from one (September 20 and 21) makes sense if Bernanke was planning to pull the QE3 Trigger.”
ReplyDeleteThe environment today is every bit as dangerous as in 2008. The theatre has just shifted from CDO's and real estate in the U. S., to sovereign debt downgrades across the globe (However, with RE prices still declining across the country, we are not out of the woods yet).
If we can't close tomorrow around the 1,200 level then i'm afraid issues in Europe will drag us lower again...I think these next couple of days are big for the markets...
ReplyDeleteSPY hit S1 to the penny. 119.00. I'm betting it breaks it obviously. S2 is a buck and a half lower.
ReplyDeleteCTCT is quite possibly the most volatile stock in the market...
ReplyDeleteI am getting screwed on my TLT puts... AGAIN!
ReplyDeleteI have to admit, I'm surprised by this little push higher. I didn't think anyone would want to get long ahead of the speech.
ReplyDeleteMight just be some short covering. People getting flat going into tonight's speech.
ReplyDeleteKyle- Probably. I thought seriously about it.
ReplyDeleteMark - I think the fact of the matter is we're most likely going to be in this big ole trading range between 1,100 and 1,250 for the next several months...so while in the middle of this range, which is where we're at, we might as well get used to the possibility of anything happening. I don't see enough reasons to break us decisively lower or higher...
ReplyDeleteWe're clearly going into a recession? I don't think there's enough evidence of that.
Valuations are cheap? Yeah but where are earnings going?
Welcome to chopfest 2011...where the goal is to bankrupt bears and bulls looking to trade this market.
TOF- Yeah, my trade is really just a gap fill near the top of the range. Already getting tired of being in it frankly.
ReplyDeleteHaven't really seen many Q3 warnings yet and we a quarter of the way through September.
ReplyDeletePUS exports up today, which means revenues for US companies are growing outside of the US (again).
To me this implies Q3 will be another good quarter for company earnings.
CP, not sure if you follow Bill Cara, but he is going to visit the SVM mines in CHina in the next couple of weeks (caracommunity.com)
ReplyDeleteBunch on analyst report summaries over there today.
ReplyDeleteBB - You might want to look at TXN's comments after hours:
ReplyDelete"-- Texas Instruments cuts its third-quarter revenue guidance and lowers the midpoint of its earnings view
--Chip maker says it's seeing broad-based weakness across its products, markets and customers
--Company says weakness is due to macroeconomic softness, not because of excess inventory"
Again, valuations are cheap, but their rear-view mirror valuations. I'm continuing to make my list of companies that I want to go long in should the market break to the downside over the next few months...even if we're in this long trading range, my suspicion is we break lower given the unending negative stuff coming out of Europe.
they're rear view, that is...
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