Friday, September 9, 2011
09/09/11 What's Going On?
Let me lay it out for you.
Traders today are more sophisticated. The market's response? More sophisticated shake outs. It has to be real. If it don't feel real, it ain't real. I like the unrelenting pattern of sell offs following rallies.
Brother, brother
Everyone thinks we're wrong
Oh, but who are they to judge us
Simply because we're long
We've got to find a way
To bring some understanding here today
Keep the faith, bro.
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In an insane world populated by dipshits, turds and geeks, we're naturally seen as psychotic misfits, nerds and freaks.
ReplyDeleteBro.
I'd rather be in the latter class. After all, Bill Gates is a nerd. What matters is if you are a nerd at the front of the herd.
ReplyDeleteI have to agree with tof re hostile posts-
ReplyDelete(a) You should first learn to spell the word you wish to use
(b) Next, spend a little time reviewing appropriate uses/correct placement of the word, and study examples of its use in proper context
(c) Then I'll be happy to go one-on-one with you in real time ;)
cp- No way would I hang with a crowd that includes dipshits.
ReplyDeletefrom Jon Najarian --
ReplyDeletetwo of life's greatest qualities: Patience & Wisdom -
http://yfrog.com/kk2usfdj
Psychotics are also alright. But guys who (presumably) graduated high school unable to spell or use grammar- I don't know, man.
ReplyDeleteDamn Kyle, that's good.
ReplyDeleteIt's Mission St. Brown Ale again tonight. I just haven't found anything better when it comes to bottled beer.
ReplyDelete2nd - can't tell whether it's a real picture or constructed???
ReplyDeletehttp://twitter.com/#!/optionmonster
shootable- Is that a reference to substances capable of being mainlined? A shooting gallery where one is able to indulge? A target overlay? I don't get it.
ReplyDeleteWait, it's plural. Shootables. I got it. Pez.
ReplyDeleteWhat are the odds the House/Senate pass the 50% cut in FICA? I'd say 100%.
ReplyDeleteThat shootables guy, what an asshole. Learn some grammar mofo.
ReplyDeleteI don't think it's a real picture, or they would have shot a full-length video ;)
ReplyDeleteI liked shootables, and 2nd, it's not dipshtz, it's misfits!
ReplyDeleteYou know, from the isle of misfits where all the unwanted toys are sent!
Mining memes for money - I'm not going to be surprised if Obama gets his stimulus plan passed.
ReplyDeleteI'm going to sound like Mark today.
ReplyDeleteOpening ceremonies for AYSO. More discussions about the coach's campaign for City Council. Lunch. Warm-up. First game.
Pretty basic stuff, but I liked it.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nytimes.com/interactive/business/global/european-debt-crisis-tracker.html?ref=business
No parades here 2nd. If the kids don't play well food is withheld ;)...Sounds like a fun day!
Hey BB - Just to follow up on our conversation of TXN's stock movement on Friday, my thinking is this is nothing more than people trying to pick a bottom...I like MKM's take on it:
ReplyDelete"A rather different point of view, however, is offered by MKM Partners analyst Daniel Berenbaum. Reflecting on TI’s update, and cutting his price tag on the stock to $27 from $28, he warns against jumping in to TXN shares.
“We understand that some investors may want to try to find an entry point following weak numbers and consequent number cuts,” writes Berenbaum. “But with a demand downturn now in full evidence and our analysis suggesting that consensus semi revenue estimates could be 20% too high for 2012/13, this seems to us like trying to catch a falling knife.”
Berenbaum thinks the shares could see another 30% decline.
ReplyDeleteBerenbaum offered similar caution about chips overall earlier this week (http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2011/09/06/semis-lots-of-hand-wringing-on-the-street/), following similar remarks in early August (http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2011/08/10/of-chips-and-dips-street-mulls-worst-case-scenarios/).
Also, I know the iPad sells well now but I still think there is going to be a big slowdown in the sales of those things. They're just not nearly as powerful or easy to use as a laptop. My thinking is there was a big buildup of inventory for those tablet devices.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Also, my thoughts on OPEN being impacted by the Google purchase of Zagat is that the initial reaction just based on that news is dumb. OPEN is installed in thousands of restaurants throughout the US and overseas, so it has an imbedded installed base of customers that are paying on a monthly and transaction basis. Opentable.com is a popular website that restaurants rely on to draw customers to their doors. This is a wider moat than people think. You can't just throw millions of dollars at something in the internet space and assume people will use it. People should have learned that already.
Anyway, having said that, if OPEN follows the same pattern that all high flying internet companies (NFLX, PCLN, etc) have in the past, then there is probably still significant downside. I'm assuming the negative reaction to this news will cause another selloff in the shares at the next earnings report if it's not a blowout quarter...I think we should all seriously consider buying some of it if it can get down to the $35 to $40 area. They have a tremendous business and awesome long term growth potential. Plus, their balance sheet is excellent and free cash flow growth over the past several years has been excellent. I'll be keeping a close eye on this one.
Check out an interesting detail of the final transaction between ECU and AUMN
ReplyDeletehttp://biz.yahoo.com/e/110909/aumn8-k.html
"In accordance with his compensation arrangement, ECU's former Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Michel Roy, was entitled to receive a cash payment of Cdn$1,500,000 upon the consummation of the Arrangement. Golden Minerals and Mr. Roy agreed that Golden Minerals would issue 113,208 new shares of Golden Minerals common stock (the "Roy Shares") in full satisfaction of the amount payable to Mr. Roy. The number of Roy Shares issued was calculated by dividing the amount of the cash payment by the five day volume weighted average price of Golden Minerals' common stock on the NYSE Amex for the five trading days immediately prior to September 2, 2011, the day on which the Arrangement was consummated. Golden Minerals has imposed appropriate limitations on the resale of the Roy Shares."
So the former CEO of ECU could just walk away with $1500000 cash, but instead he chose to receive it in the form of AUMN shares (at $13.24 per share). It is encouraging that a major insider of the company felt that there is no better investment than AUMN at $13.24 (he could have received $1.5M cash and invested it in ANY other way, including pure gold & silver).
Interesting tidbit David. I'd love to know what the guy is worth. That would really be telling.
ReplyDeleteWe get through this 'tough' patch and Brent stays near these levels, APA is worthy of a large investment. 1,000 to 2,000 shares.
ReplyDeleteI mean trade.
ReplyDeleteTLT - Wondering if this one tops out this week?
ReplyDeleteI'd love to make a few bucks on TBT...
Speaking about US stocks being cheap and earnings being great going forward:
ReplyDelete“… at the start of 2011, productivity trends took a remarkable turn for the worse – especially compared to what was initially reported. An initial estimate that Q1 productivity grew by 1.8% was transformed to show a decline of 0.6%. A slight 0.7% rise in Q1 ULC (unit labor costs) was transformed to show a staggering surge of 4.8%! In addition to that 4.8% rise, ULC rose a further 2.2% in Q2. But the news gets even worse Last week the BLS revised the ULC rise in Q2 up from 2.2% to 3.3% QoQ. US non-farm business unit labor costs are now rising by 2% yoy. That is very bad news for profits. Bad news for equities. And because the pace of ULC is a key driver of inflation (upwards in this instance), it is bad news for an increasingly criticized and divided Fed.”
All these BS performance numbers and assessments that the Govt puts out remind me of something that Charles Kirk posted last year...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.screencast.com/t/gYOnOCeYa
ULC - Well, we need to qualify that metric. ULC may have a trajectory of +2%yoy, but the dollar itself is down more than that in terms of competing currencies, isn't it?
ReplyDeleteI'm anticipating a real change of negative ULC, assuming the dollar doesn't reverse to the upside...
RSI(7) - This metric bottomed Aug 8th, and since has not moved beyond the 60's (63.6).
ReplyDelete$USD - the RSI(7) is well into the 80's now. Hasn't turned down through 70 yet though...
ReplyDelete$USD - A couple of upside gaps need to fill, looks like buying stopped at the 200SMA
ReplyDeleteWNR - Trying to break through $18?
ReplyDeleteBy Rainer Buergin and Christian Vits - Feb 1, 2011
ReplyDeleteGerman unemployment fell to an 18- year low in January, stoking concerns that the world’s second- largest exporter is running short of skilled labor after the fastest economic expansion since reunification in 1990.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-01/german-unemployment-falls-to-lowest-since-1992-jobless-rate-drops-to-7-4-.html
AUMN/ECU - Sounds like some of the cashed up miners (like SVM) missed out on a super opportunity to buy ECU...
ReplyDeleteUnconventional measures?
ReplyDelete"Christine Lagarde, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund, warned that the global economy is entering a "dangerous new phase" on Friday, ahead of the G7 summit in Marseilles, France.
She warned that both advanced and emerging economies faced key economic challenges, and that governments must "act now" to stop further contagion.
"Policymakers should stand ready, as needed, to take more action to support the recovery, including through unconventional measures," Lagarde said. "
"AUMN/ECU - Sounds like some of the cashed up miners (like SVM) missed out on a super opportunity to buy ECU..."
ReplyDeleteYep. So in retrospect, this merger may turn out to be the best thing for my portfolio. Without ANY merger, ECU would not have started building the 2000 tpd mill. If the merger would have happened with a larger producer, then the potential upside would be much smaller. However, right now with the total market cap of the combined company being $400M, I can easily see a 10X upside in 3 years (in 3 years, the 2000 tpd mill should be built and ramped up to its full capacity).
TOF, wouldn't buy TXN and honestly don't know if it is a good one. I've got 2 semi's - ISSI, which is incredibly cheap, and ZL in Toronto which is in the midst of hopefully being bought out.
ReplyDeleteMy thoughts are:
1. There have been very few earnings warnings this month so far.
2. Most companies are predicting good results for Q3, so this should happen, give the no warnings.
3. Even companies, like TXN, which are announcing an earnings warning, are going up, so companies that meet or exceed should do well also.
I fins semi's hard to trade as you really have to stay ahead of the analysts and they are over-analyzed on the street relative to their value, so it is easier to look elsewhere, but they are a good market indicator.
Bb - txn is going up?
ReplyDeleteTTM - "Tata Motors Forced to Search for Chief Executive While Jaguar Sales Plunge
ReplyDeleteBy Siddharth Philip and Steven Rothwell - Sep 11, 2011 Tata Motors Ltd. (TTMT), owner of the Jaguar and Land Rover brands, is being forced to search for a new chief executive officer as it struggles to revive sales of the luxury sedan amid a worsening debt crisis in Europe.
Carl-Peter Forster, 57, who helped the Jaguar Land Rover unit turn to profit in the year ended March 31, quit on Sept. 9 after less than two years as the global head of India’s biggest automaker citing “unavoidable personal circumstances "
TOF - TXN went up on Friday on the news on their "earnings miss" on a day the market was down 2.5%.
ReplyDeleteThat tells me expectations are very low and can easily be exceeded.
It's not the news that matters , its the reaction to the news.
TOF, take a look at:
ReplyDeleteThe Allure of Being in the Chips
By TIERNAN RAY | MORE ARTICLES BY AUTHOR
The key semiconductor index outperformed the Nasdaq on Friday, and the chip industry's stocks look set to climb.
http://online.barrons.com/article/technology_trader.html
Talking to a friend of mine over the weekend who I consider to probably the best value investor I know. He's a buy and hold guy with average holding time of about 3 or 4 years. He was taking profits in a few of his stocks earlier this year, but said he is buying now. Not too quickly and feels he may be early, but is very confident that buys made at current levels will work out great in his 3 or 4 year holding timeframe.
ReplyDeleteInteresting that Gold is down this morning given the Greek turmoil. Perhaps if this last safehaven is taken out, we will be ready for a real bottom.
ReplyDeleteWould also like the see Copper hold this morning (down $0.06 on the futures).