Monday, September 12, 2011
09/12/11 Global markets have hit the floor
I had a dream recently. Traders hit the floor when Big Jim walked in the door.
Well a hush fell over the pool room
When Jimmy come boppin' in off the street
And when the cutting was done
The only part that wasn't bloody
Was the soles of the big man's feet
Yeah he was cut in bout a hundred places
And he was shot in a couple more
And you better believe
They sung a different kind of story
When big Jim hit the floor
I think we move up from here. Call me Slim.
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"That's an expensive call for 6 weeks. You need a big fast move!"
ReplyDeleteBB - Well, given that EWG has moved down $9 in 6 weeks, I think the risk of it moving $0.60 up in the next 6 weeks to get to my breakeven (assuming premium goes to $0) is not exactly a huge move. I think it could retrace half of the move down over the next several weeks. That would be a move to about $21.5. I'm shooting for $20.5 to $21.
TOF, $20 used to be a support for EWG for a large part of August, and so a retracement to test that support from below is very likely. An October $16 for $2.40 would be a good way of playing such a move, as it would double your call value even if EWG hits $21 only in late October (just before OpEx).
ReplyDeleteDavid - Yep, that's what I'm thinking.
ReplyDeleteWow, looks like China came to the rescue, huh? I read about it here, first! Good work, guys!
ReplyDeleteARGN - Sounds interesting TOF, recycling heat from an internal combustion engine is exactly how I envision efficiency is going to be increased.
Like the green light red light thingy CP!
ReplyDelete2nd- Your probably right, but I fail to see how China agreeing to buy some Italian sausage...er, bonds, is worth 30 ES pts.
ReplyDeleteEWG - Is dangerous because of the German banks, similar to others. I advised my son to get into EWG a couple years ago but we got out at a small loss before things started sledding down. Just lucky.
ReplyDeleteToday, I've been engrossed in a topic presented by Kaimu/Rebecca Costa on the new TV channel. It's all about scholar Neil Howe's work in which he predicted in 1997 the chaos that we are just embarking upon, based on American generational and historical trends.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss-Howe_generational_theory#Unraveling
http://www.fourthturning.com/index.html
Lots of reading there relevant to long term holders. For the .tv archive you go here:
http://empowerme.tv/neil-howe-author-of-the-fourth-turning-on-countermeasures-with-rebecca-costa/
TOF,
ReplyDeletemy misunderstanding.
I read "I think EWG has upside to $21 in the short term. As such, I have put a sell order in for my EWG October $16 Calls I bought today at $5." as you bought calls for $5 each.
Best BUY (BBY) cuts full year forecast and sales fall short. It does a stock buyback to get the EPS back up. Earnings are still quite decent in a tough environment.
ReplyDeleteStock is up 3% in premarket.
This reinforces my belief that investors are too negative and, as earnings news comes out, that we could easily see a large move up into the end of the year as underinvested fund managers pile on in a buying panic.
I wonder what HERO is up to?
ReplyDeleteMan, they have been hammering BBY on TV.
Guess the premarket on BBY was wrong as it is now down 6%.
ReplyDeleteTough business they are in. People go to BBY to research products, then price shop the web to get the best deal. Kind of the same issue the furniture companies TOF competes against.
Personally, I like BBY for shopping, but hate buying there as you get the pressure to upgrade your purchase and buy their extended warantee.
Last TV I bought, I found as BBY, but bought it at Costco for $20 more to avoid the hassle of dealing with BBY.
BB- Your not the only one!
ReplyDeleteRAS reacting nicely to it's divy announcement.
ReplyDeleteBC has a writeup today on someone called Wolanchuk who has won a bunch of market timing awards and is now very bullish calling fro Dow +500 / +1000 days.
ReplyDeleteMaybe 2nd will finally get his 200 point gap up...
SVM - I guess the shorts are dead set on pushing this one to low $7 or thereabouts.
ReplyDeleteMy watch list is much greener than the indexes. Risk on! A lying rumor (china debt buyers) can start a rally. Remember the C is profitable memo?
ReplyDeleteSVM?
ReplyDeleteSVM- Muddy water report. Trying to get a link.
ReplyDeleteSVM- http://stks.co/C2D
ReplyDeleteSVM - Vad posted a link over at CC...
ReplyDeletehttp://alfredlittle.com/2011/09/13/silvercorp-metals-questionable-customers-geologists-production-quality-and-serious-related-party-failures/
SVM - Now the shorts present the detail of their case:
ReplyDeletehttp://alfredlittle.com/2011/09/13/silvercorp-metals-questionable-customers-geologists-production-quality-and-serious-related-party-failures/
http://labemp.files.wordpress.com/2011/09/silvercorp-metals-final-report.pdf
SVM - "Alfred Little" apparently was involved in the DEER short attack:
ReplyDelete"On March 28, 2011, Deer filed suit against short sellers and certain bloggers including "Alfred Little," a now-admitted fictitious figure, alleging an orchestrated scheme to manipulate and depress Deer's stock. Since then, "Alfred Little" has failed to answer the complaint, changed his identity from a real person to a web-site, and attempted to extort the company by threatening to publish more false defamatory reports until the company dropped its claims against these defendants."
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Deer-Consumer-Products-Inc-prnews-3944885396.html?x=0&.v=1
Pretty tough report. Got to run....Let me know what you think!
ReplyDeleteTed Spread:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=.TEDSP:IND
Italy-Germany Spread:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=.ITAGER10:IND
Italy and Spain CDSs:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38451750
All continue to push higher...be careful out there. Probably dumb, but I used the strength today to sell my EWG calls (no conviction) at a whopping $230 gain. I'm actually looking to stick with the equity instead of the options on that ETF...
I also decided to buy some SPY puts...$119 puts expiring 9/30 and 10/22 at around $5ish and $6.5ish.
ReplyDeleteI'm thinking that yesterday was a bull trap much like what we had a month or so ago...remember how 1,250 was the floor? We pierced through it during the day, then rallied hard into the close and closed above it. Then the next day we tanked 500 points. Well, I think we are setting up for that move again.
Breaking News:
ReplyDeleteA New York man has filed suit in federal court claiming that the booths in one of White Castle's restaurants are too small to accommodate larger-sized patrons, which is in violation of the federal Americans with Disabilities Act, according to the Associated Press . In his suit, diner Martin Kessman said he injured his knee while trying to squeeze his 6-foot, 290-pound frame into a White Castle restaurant booth in Nanuet, N.Y. Kessman is seeking unspecified financial award in the case. Based in Columbus, Ohio , White Castle bills itself as America's first fast-food hamburger chain, operating more than 400 restaurants in 11 states, according to its website.
Went long EWG stock instead of calls just to play it safer...starter position at $17.94
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/insiders-betting-heavily-on-stocks-2011-09-13?link=home_carousel
ReplyDeleteThe only thing I wish Hulbert would include is the volume of the transactions and how that compares with historical figures.
Sold my EWG at $18.01...I still think I have another chance at the $17 area.
ReplyDeleteS&P having troubles with 1,172ish
TOF- I truly believe the next great problem we will face as a country is obesity. Just last night Patricia showed me a picture of a soccer game that the daughter of one of her high school friends posted. You could see about 10 girls in the shot and ALL of them were way over weight(guessing they were about 14 years old)...And these are the athletes!
ReplyDeleteAnyone know why the banks aren't following suit today? I would think JPM/C/BAC would be roaring higher...especially with Europe and European banks being higher
ReplyDeleteI guess the Italian sausage really was that good! :)
ReplyDeleteYeah, MS is the only one really moving.
ReplyDeleteWas something on CNBC about a JP Morgan conference where a VP indicated the brokerage business would be way down this Q. BAC, with their big Merrill business, probably falling in sympathy.
ReplyDeleteOK, had to take a bite... 3K SVM @ 6.50.
ReplyDeleteOut @ 6.40 for a 300 buck lose.
ReplyDeleteSVM - Something tells me we're not even close to capitulation, looks like that $0.50 H&S target is still in play...
ReplyDeleteUnbelievable.
SVM, Shades of KRY.
ReplyDeleteT3D. I was just thinking that. Still have any WPRT left? Nice break out today. See if it holds.
ReplyDeleteSVM - Here's an audiocast presentation from this week's Rodman & Renshaw conference:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.wsw.com/webcast/rrshq20/svm/
Not certain this link will work, let me know if not...
After 12 days in transit, I'm finally able to look at some charts. I see that the VIX futures in the form of TVIX (or VXX) have hit my 5 wave target of 75 up 500% off the lows.
ReplyDeleteI also see that the 100 day put-call ratio has reached 1.07. Since the world started collapsing in 2007, the high is 1.08 hit in March of '08. http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$CPC&p=D&yr=4&mn=4&dy=0&i=p75061692405&a=161053055&r=255
This lead to a 10 week slow climb before....
W/ these, I am becoming moderately short/intermediate term bullish. IMO, the best charts are DB, EWB, TBT, and NFLX.
I see huge bear flags in all of the indices. From a contrarian perspective, so does everybody else. This could be bullish....
Having said that, the SOX closed right at resistance. I wouldn't be surprised to see at least a 1 day pullback starting tomorrow.
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