09/15/11 Changing my life with one wave of her hand
Unbelievable, jesse. A man of extremes.
I suggest you remain single for as long as it takes to amass another 4-digit percentage gain. Then get married and move both porfolio and relationship into 'buy-and-hold.'
Unconventional Measures - What happened today, were there some form of unconventional monetary measures implemented in order to ward off the vampire of economic collapse?
I can't sleep. I can totally understand why the world would collapse under the U.S.' $200 trillion in debt. The U.S. probably gives out $50 billion in food stamps EVERY day. I have not been following the Euro crisis in the least, but how in the world can this cause literally TRILLIONS and TRILLIONS of market value collapse over the longer term??
"Europe's banks are big holders of Greek debt, with perhaps $50bn-$60bn outstanding."
I think buying Coinstar is like buying a CD maker just before Napster came out and destroyed that market. Buying Netflix is only slightly less risky as you have to wonder how big the market is for something you can get for free.
I've got a 21 year old daughter and work with a bunch of 20-somethings and they are all using Utorrent and emule and vuze to download movies and tv shows for free and project-freetv to stream them. You think Netflix has good content - these services have everything including movies which are still in the theater that someone has recorded on a hand-cam and uploaded.
I know actors, producres, etc. have to make money to create content, but the distribution model is changing quickly and there is going to be very little value in being a movie distributor.
Not a good chart trader like you TOF, so there may be a good trade here, but as far as a long term business mode
Greece collapsing has been so telegraphed that all debt holders have prepared for it. Can you imagine that there is a board of directors that did not ask about their company's Greek Exposure. Can you imagine a government who didn't do the same?
It's all figured out and, should Greek default occur, the writeoffs are known and, if Soc Gen would not have enough cash, you can be sure the French government has a plan in place to address this.
It would have to be something unexpected to really cause all this value to disappear long term.
BB - I hear ya but I disagree. The internet and streaming movies has been around for years....yet people still have their dvd players and rent dvds. It's similar to the dying check industry. Ask MITK how that's working out for them.
And regarding the "ugly" chart that everyone sees with CSTR...look at the 5 year chart...the stock broke out a year or so ago and has stayed above the old highs of around $40....there were a couple of tests, but it's going to go much higher. The catalyst? Great earnings of course!
I just know from my own experience that we were forced to start using this service over the past 2.5 months as all of the blockbuster stores near us were closed down. Having already tried the online thing and arrived at the conclusion that it was too expensive given we only watch 2 to 3 movies a month, we started using Redbox. I'm quite sure that millions of other people around the world have had the same thing happen to them over the past 3 months and will come to the same conclusion over the next 3-12 months. I think you will see an explosion in revenues and EPS over the next few quarters. I'm talking $1.50 EPS per quarter or more. The stock will be up in the $120+ area by then.
TOF, what's happening now though is the download speeds are getting faster and the technologies are getting better, so more and more people are doing it.
When Napster first came out, it was only the techies and kids who used it. Remember when it used to take almost half an hour to donwload a song? How many CD's or paid downloads are there now? 5%, 10%, not a whole lot.
When it comes to technology, you need to look at what the leaders are doing (ie. the techy nerds and kids). Look at Facebook - kids started it and now most of my 40-something friends are on it - 5 years later. Kids would thing you are crazy to pay to rent a movie and they'll show their parents.
There will always be a market for DVD rentals, just as there still is for CD's. You know, Frank sinatra's greatest hits, etc. that are bought by the 70-somethings.
The Cheque industry is doing OK and the remaining players are doing well and MITK is kind of like the Napster for cheques in this case putting the post office out of business.
Maybe CSTR will pick up some revenues from BlockBuster going under, but that's what they also said about Best Buy taking revenues from Circuit City when they went under and you saw how well that worked for them.
I just talked to my wife's sister who is 22 and who is staying with us for the next month or so and she said that the reason people like Redbox is because you don't have to sign a contract and be obligated to pay monthly fees like you do with Netflix, etc.
Maybe it depends on the demographics or maybe it is still further out than I think, but my 21 year daughter in University residence can get any movie she wants using file sharing on the internal web in minutes and the Universities also drove Napster's success.
One on the guys who worked for me cancelled his TV cable and now just downloads TV shows and movies through Pirate Bay (he's the IT guy, so again a technology leader).
And perhaps she doesn't have a computer hooked to the TV, but that is also coming with things like Apple-TV and native wireless capability built right into some new TV's.
Does she know about Utorrent, Pirate Bay, etc. and downloading movies? Why doesn't she use these?
Blockbuster machine - I've been seeing those around here too, not sure exactly where they were. Wal Mart has the redbox machines, but not many of the classic movies from the 60's and 70's and nothing that plays on my Betamax machine.
Check out the smart TV's, internet capable...
TRID - Speaking of smart TV's I see TRID took off...
FWIW, that was the first BB machine I've seen...But in a Safeway, you know they are getting a bigger cut than RB. That's a big share here in Frisco land.
I think coinstar is on the downward side of earnings growth. Our town is saturated with them. I use them and like the system, but anymore machines would cannibalize the business ala too many starbucks. There change coin machines is a great business. I wish I owned one. 8% take for counting pennies. Probably a much higher margin per machine. I wonder if they make machines for the casino industry?. My analysis is a short term buy, intermediate hold and long term sell.
"The second National Bank of the United States was to meet the same fate as of the first. America had elected a southern president who didn't take kindly to the private national bank, for President Andrew Jackson had a bone to pick. In 1836, President Andrew Jackson with the American Public behind him wrote in closing the second national bank:
Gentleman, I have had men watching you for a long time and I am convinced that you have used the funds of the bank to speculate in the breadstuffs of the country.
When you won, you divided the profits amongst you, and when you lost, you charged it to the bank.
You tell me that if I take the deposits from the bank and annul its charter, I shall ruin ten thousand families. That may be true, gentlemen, but that is your sin! Should I let you go on, you will ruin fifty thousand families, and that would be my sin!
You are a den of vipers and thieves.
Andrew Jackson, (7th US President, when forcing the closure of the Second Bank of the US in 1836 by revoking its charter)"
CP - Wow dude that's an insane Andrew Jackson quote. I wish we could talk like that nowadays.
RB - Coinstar isn't the growth engine...it's Redbox. This company has lots of other kiosk type businesses in the works too, including Gizmo, a used electronics kiosk, amongst several others. I'm excluding those though in my estimates.
Blockbuster kiosks? Once again, Blockbuster is late to the party.
China Sells (Not So) High-Speed Trains to… Georgia
"China’s high-speed train manufacturers haven’t been getting many positive headlines of late.
The state-run Xinhua news agency seemed to serve one up on Wednesday, announcing in a report that China had won a bid to send a fleet of 40 bullet-train locomotives to the country of Georgia."
As long as I party in Pattaya, I guess this means that FRO goes to 13 in a jiffy. Just realized its 6:30 am. Done for the night....
ReplyDeleteWill visit the 'zoo tomorrow for promising specimens.
Where's the money going? I don't know. But beaten down value blue chips will catch a bid at some point.
ReplyDelete2nd - DELL is shockingly cheap in my opinion. Not as cheap as the box but almost.
ReplyDeleteUnconventional Measures - What happened today, were there some form of unconventional monetary measures implemented in order to ward off the vampire of economic collapse?
ReplyDeleteI can't sleep. I can totally understand why the world would collapse under the U.S.' $200 trillion in debt. The U.S. probably gives out $50 billion in food stamps EVERY day. I have not been following the Euro crisis in the least, but how in the world can this cause literally TRILLIONS and TRILLIONS of market value collapse over the longer term??
ReplyDelete"Europe's banks are big holders of Greek debt, with perhaps $50bn-$60bn outstanding."
Jesse - What were your biggest gainers in 2003-2007? Also, were you doing this during a day job or did you quit and just do this full time?
ReplyDelete2nd, TOF,
ReplyDeleteI think buying Coinstar is like buying a CD maker just before Napster came out and destroyed that market. Buying Netflix is only slightly less risky as you have to wonder how big the market is for something you can get for free.
I've got a 21 year old daughter and work with a bunch of 20-somethings and they are all using Utorrent and emule and vuze to download movies and tv shows for free and project-freetv to stream them. You think Netflix has good content - these services have everything including movies which are still in the theater that someone has recorded on a hand-cam and uploaded.
I know actors, producres, etc. have to make money to create content, but the distribution model is changing quickly and there is going to be very little value in being a movie distributor.
Not a good chart trader like you TOF, so there may be a good trade here, but as far as a long term business mode
Jesse,
ReplyDeleteGreece collapsing has been so telegraphed that all debt holders have prepared for it. Can you imagine that there is a board of directors that did not ask about their company's Greek Exposure. Can you imagine a government who didn't do the same?
It's all figured out and, should Greek default occur, the writeoffs are known and, if Soc Gen would not have enough cash, you can be sure the French government has a plan in place to address this.
It would have to be something unexpected to really cause all this value to disappear long term.
BB - I hear ya but I disagree. The internet and streaming movies has been around for years....yet people still have their dvd players and rent dvds. It's similar to the dying check industry. Ask MITK how that's working out for them.
ReplyDeleteAnd regarding the "ugly" chart that everyone sees with CSTR...look at the 5 year chart...the stock broke out a year or so ago and has stayed above the old highs of around $40....there were a couple of tests, but it's going to go much higher. The catalyst? Great earnings of course!
ReplyDeleteI just know from my own experience that we were forced to start using this service over the past 2.5 months as all of the blockbuster stores near us were closed down. Having already tried the online thing and arrived at the conclusion that it was too expensive given we only watch 2 to 3 movies a month, we started using Redbox. I'm quite sure that millions of other people around the world have had the same thing happen to them over the past 3 months and will come to the same conclusion over the next 3-12 months. I think you will see an explosion in revenues and EPS over the next few quarters. I'm talking $1.50 EPS per quarter or more. The stock will be up in the $120+ area by then.
TOF, what's happening now though is the download speeds are getting faster and the technologies are getting better, so more and more people are doing it.
ReplyDeleteWhen Napster first came out, it was only the techies and kids who used it. Remember when it used to take almost half an hour to donwload a song? How many CD's or paid downloads are there now? 5%, 10%, not a whole lot.
When it comes to technology, you need to look at what the leaders are doing (ie. the techy nerds and kids). Look at Facebook - kids started it and now most of my 40-something friends are on it - 5 years later. Kids would thing you are crazy to pay to rent a movie and they'll show their parents.
There will always be a market for DVD rentals, just as there still is for CD's. You know, Frank sinatra's greatest hits, etc. that are bought by the 70-somethings.
The Cheque industry is doing OK and the remaining players are doing well and MITK is kind of like the Napster for cheques in this case putting the post office out of business.
Maybe CSTR will pick up some revenues from BlockBuster going under, but that's what they also said about Best Buy taking revenues from Circuit City when they went under and you saw how well that worked for them.
ReplyDeleteAnd the 20 or so friends I talk to regularly, I honestly only know of 2 that use the streaming service.
ReplyDeleteWhat age group are your friends?
ReplyDelete20's to 30's
ReplyDeleteI just talked to my wife's sister who is 22 and who is staying with us for the next month or so and she said that the reason people like Redbox is because you don't have to sign a contract and be obligated to pay monthly fees like you do with Netflix, etc.
ReplyDeleteMaybe it depends on the demographics or maybe it is still further out than I think, but my 21 year daughter in University residence can get any movie she wants using file sharing on the internal web in minutes and the Universities also drove Napster's success.
ReplyDeleteOne on the guys who worked for me cancelled his TV cable and now just downloads TV shows and movies through Pirate Bay (he's the IT guy, so again a technology leader).
Yeah and $5 for a movie is cheap entertainment.
ReplyDeleteAnd perhaps she doesn't have a computer hooked to the TV, but that is also coming with things like Apple-TV and native wireless capability built right into some new TV's.
Does she know about Utorrent, Pirate Bay, etc. and downloading movies? Why doesn't she use these?
pprob a dumb question but isnt that illlegal?
ReplyDeleteWent to a Safeway tonight that we never go to. No Redbox, but a Blockbuster machine doing the same thing. Anyone know the market share?
ReplyDeleteBlockbuster machine - I've been seeing those around here too, not sure exactly where they were. Wal Mart has the redbox machines, but not many of the classic movies from the 60's and 70's and nothing that plays on my Betamax machine.
ReplyDeleteCheck out the smart TV's, internet capable...
TRID - Speaking of smart TV's I see TRID took off...
TRID- Very interesting! Have you done any real work on it?
ReplyDeleteFWIW, that was the first BB machine I've seen...But in a Safeway, you know they are getting a bigger cut than RB. That's a big share here in Frisco land.
ReplyDeleteI think coinstar is on the downward side of earnings growth. Our town is saturated with them. I use them and like the system, but anymore machines would cannibalize the business ala too many starbucks. There change coin machines is a great business. I wish I owned one. 8% take for counting pennies. Probably a much higher margin per machine. I wonder if they make machines for the casino industry?. My analysis is a short term buy, intermediate hold and long term sell.
ReplyDeleteVipers and thieves - Andrew Jackson
ReplyDelete"The second National Bank of the United States was to meet the same fate as of the first. America had elected a southern president who didn't take kindly to the private national bank, for President Andrew Jackson had a bone to pick. In 1836, President Andrew Jackson with the American Public behind him wrote in closing the second national bank:
Gentleman, I have had men watching you for a long time and I am convinced that you have used the funds of the bank to speculate in the breadstuffs of the country.
When you won, you divided the profits amongst you, and when you lost, you charged it to the bank.
You tell me that if I take the deposits from the bank and annul its charter, I shall ruin ten thousand families. That may be true, gentlemen, but that is your sin! Should I let you go on, you will ruin fifty thousand families, and that would be my sin!
You are a den of vipers and thieves.
Andrew Jackson, (7th US President, when forcing the closure of the Second Bank of the US in 1836 by revoking its charter)"
CP - Wow dude that's an insane Andrew Jackson quote. I wish we could talk like that nowadays.
ReplyDeleteRB - Coinstar isn't the growth engine...it's Redbox. This company has lots of other kiosk type businesses in the works too, including Gizmo, a used electronics kiosk, amongst several others. I'm excluding those though in my estimates.
Blockbuster kiosks? Once again, Blockbuster is late to the party.
China Sells (Not So) High-Speed Trains to… Georgia
ReplyDelete"China’s high-speed train manufacturers haven’t been getting many positive headlines of late.
The state-run Xinhua news agency seemed to serve one up on Wednesday, announcing in a report that China had won a bid to send a fleet of 40 bullet-train locomotives to the country of Georgia."
http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2011/09/15/china-sells-not-so-high-speed-trains-to-georgia/?mod=WSJBlog
http://www.youtube.com/user/jebcorliss#p/a/f/2/UkgJndUtUsY
ReplyDeleteJesse - Is this u?
SVM - Friday, Carson Block of Muddy Waters research to be interviewed on Bloomberg tv not sure of the time.
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDeleteNamu The Killer Whale - I'll be watching this movie on the Betamax tonight...
ReplyDelete