I hang back from the hyenas, annoyed by the thought I won’t get to meet him. But then there is the tiniest of pauses, and without thinking, I blurt out “Ray, I don’t have a business card for you, I just wanted to thank you for your emphasis on process.”
Dalio turns, extends his hand. I introduce myself, shake his hand, and add “I find your focus on self-reflection and error correction, on enlightenment refreshing compared to the rest of Wall Street.” or words to that effect.
He swivels around to face me full on, and says “Isn’t that what it is all about? If you don’t understand yourself, how can you ever meet your goals, in life or in investing?”
I've always been a big fan of Glen Rice since his days at Michigan. Way to go Glen:)
"CHARLES BARKLEY gave Glen Rice major props yesterday, but not for anything he did on the basketball court. Former NBA player Rice slept with Sarah Palin - or so he claims in Joe McGinniss' book, "The Rogue: Searching for the Real Sarah Palin,"
TOF, from last night - yes, downloading TV shows and movies is illegal, but it is the same as downloading music and that has not stopped people.
"According to the IFPI report, which represents the music industry worldwide, 95 percent of all music downloaded online is illegal -- that is, obtained without rights from the holders of the property."
Jesse, your history of past returns and whether being in an relationship or not were interesting. I have a friend who divorced his wife just so he could focus totally on the market, he lives and breathes it.
But if it is not too much of an intrusion, what line of business were you in to acquire 8 figures of wealth?
A very small percentage of people ever achieve that feat. If you do not want to say, I understand. Your experience has certainly changed your perspective on life from what I can tell.
I was working as a parking attendant working my way through business school. I saved up $33k and put it in the market in 2002. I think I pulled a David and got a cash advance for a couple thousand. Those were the only funds I've ever put in the market.
Aside from having a couple of businesses- student laundry service and party bus company, I've never had a "real job".
When the shit hits the fan, I'm hoping I can get a job at a sexy furniture company:)
I started writing a book about my experiences this summer and started having second thoughts. I've always tended to shy away from the spotlight. Most of my friends have no idea about my Livermoresque history.
Over the next 2-4 years, the growth in Mongolia will be unlike anything we've ever seen in modern times. GDP will literally triple overnight when mining operations commence soon.
There are hedge fund managers and bankers swarming Ulaanbataar as we speak. I'd like to head up there to seek some opportunities, but its the coldest capital city in the world:(
TRID - Not doing so well today, still got my eye on the company. Amazingly terrible financial conditions there, hard for me to believe they survive much longer unless claims of market share really are true.
I see at minimum reverse splits and dilution to infinity but they could conceivably pull it off.
"Over the next 2-4 years, the growth in Mongolia will be unlike anything we've ever seen in modern times. GDP will literally triple overnight when mining operations commence soon."
When I think of Mongolia, I think of yaks and the mining industry. I should probably study up on it.
Click here to inquire. Site Meter Estimated S&P 500 Q3 Earnings Growth Drifts Lower Friday, September 16, 2011 at 12:24PM
Below we highlight the change in the estimated year/year (y/y) earnings growth for the third quarter for the S&P 500 as the quarter has progressed. As shown, earnings growth expectations for the index have steadily declined throughout the quarter, starting at 17.5% (y/y) and dropping down to 13.7% (y/y) as of today.
=> So, earnings expectations have droppped, but are still up 13.7%. I think up 13.7% would be just fine.
Nice rebound in AUMN today, from $11.55 where I bought it yesterday. Another little push up and I'll sell $12.50 covered calls against the shares I purchased yesterday -- that will be my "money pump" with an "options twist." :)
Today I sold at $1.25 my 4000 shares of AZMTF (AZM.V, which I bought at the average cost of $2 a few years ago) so as to finance my yesterday's purchase of AUMN. AZM doesn't seem to be going anywhere, while AUMN definitely has a LOT of room to go up.
But I am pretty sure GMO will hit $4 next week, and I'll sell $4 calls against the shares I bought today and will get out of margin soon after that as the shares will be called away. It definitely seems like $3.50 has been the bottom for GMO this summer.
Just woke up. The stuff that I'm watching: BAS, TEX, FRO, AKS, MTL all down around 3% on an up day. Don't like the way they are/have been acting. None of these beaten down insider buying plays have done squat on this huge rebound. Concerns me a bit.
Sold my stuff completely flat. Will wait until next week.
I was just talking on the phone with an investor rep from AUMN (finally, I was able to get a hold of one), and when I looked back at the market just now I saw that TLT did a predictable sharp rebound and my stop at $1 did get hit. Well, at least I recovered $1 from each of my September $113 put. I bought them at $5.15, however. :(
Now back to AUMN. After talking to the investor rep, I concluded that serious people have finally taken over the great ECU resources, and they WILL see that those resources are developed. For example, while the ECU folks were saying that they are an exploration company and hence they are not planning to move forward with any new production besides the measly one they had at the Velardena (no wonder their stock was stuck at the same level for years), the AUMN rep said that they are a production company and hence they won't start any new exploration efforts in Velardena for the next 3 years (besides the small ones ECU has currently going) and will instead put all their efforts into increasing the mine throughput to 2000 tpd and into constructing the 2000 tpd sulphide plant.
He said that the bottleneck in underground mining (which is the one they have in Velardena) is the mine throughput (not the milling capacity), and they feel that 2000 tpd is the maximum mining throughput they can realistically achieve for Velardena. Thus, once they build the 2000 tpd sulphide plant, they will close the current 500 tpd oxide plant and the current small 320 tpd sulphide plant. He said that oxides represent only a small fraction of Velardena resources and that lead and zinc are recoverable only from sulphides and not from oxides, and thus the final AgEq grades for sulphides are expected to be close to 450 g/t, while the oxide ore only has 300 g/t. Thus, if they can only produce 2000 tpd of SOME ore, they might as well go for the higher-grade sulphide ore, and thus they'll close the oxide plant once the 2000 tpd sulphide plant ramps up. Still, they expect the 2000 tpd sulphide plant to produce annually around 8M OzAgEq (GPL is expecting to produce 3.7M OzAgEq in 2012, SVM is expecting to produce 5.4M OzAgEq in 2012). At that point, they will start focusing on their El Quevar property, which they expect to produce annually around 5M OzAgEq. So once the 2000 tpd mill ramps up in 3 years, the P/E assigned to the AUMN stock will be pretty high in expectation of further production arriving from El Quevar. That implies an easy 10X increase in AUMN over the next 3 years.
What milestones will happen on the way? There will be two major ones: updated 43-101 they plan to release in 4Q2011 and then the Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) for the upcoming 2000 tpd plant in the summer of 2012. I suspect that when that PEA is produced, the market will have to start reckoning with the fact that huge cashflow is inevitable for AUMN in 2 more years, and the share price will already adjust at least 2X to 3X from where it is now. So we have a 2X to 3X potential for AUMN in 1 year and then another 2X to 3X potential in 2 more years. Not too bad...
More on AUMN: don't miss the fact that while they expect to produce in the 4Q2012 using the two small ECU plants twice the amount ECU was most recently producing with these plants, this will not be important as that production won't last -- it is all about the 2000 tpd plant that they will start operating in 3 years. Similarly, it will be totally unimportant that they expect the production to decline in 2H2011 (before ramping it up in 2012), and if AUMN goes down because of this near-term production drop, that will constitute and *AMAZING* buying opportunity.
Just placed sell limit orders for 5 contracts of October $12.50 AUMN calls at $1 and at $1.25. I don't see a large catalyst for AUMN in the next few months, and so selling covered calls during rallies is a good way to make some bucks.
Cool chart. Draw a trendline from the 4 previous SOX tops going back 5 months. It hit it to the penny today.
In the past, I'd be a big buyer of SSG or puts, but as I said during drinking topics yesterday, I'm done trying to play the general market. Only special situations given proper setups.
I'm scrolling through a bunch of individual charts and after one of the greatest short term crashes in market history and a subsequent significant rise, I don't see anything surging. About the only thing surging is NFLX.
I really think that the entire investing world has put every penny of savings they have into AAPL and that by itself is causing the indexes to surge.
They certainly aren't putting money to work in all of the plays that have been beaten down 50%+ over the past couple of months. In fact, they are still selling them.
"They certainly aren't putting money to work in all of the plays that have been beaten down 50%+ over the past couple of months. In fact, they are still selling them. "
That smells like opportunity.
"Then I could go on about the horrendous performance of the momo's: CVV, MITK, NFLX, OPEN etc. "
There is a big rotation going on from the high fliers to the blue chips in my opinion. Given that we're still under the 200 DMA after 6 weeks gives me a bit of pause and backs up this rotation theory.
I currently only have a 1% stake in CVV and a 2% stake in TZOO. However, I'm thinking of adding to CVV next week. You said "For me, I'm STILL waiting for a re-acceleration of backlog." - you won't get that until next quarter's earnings. In the meantime, the thing giving everyone pause is the CEO selling. Who the hell knows why...dudes getting older and has been around for years so maybe he's just setting himself up?
One other company I LOVE is DATE. Check out the rev growth on this sucker: http://financials.morningstar.com/income-statement/is.html?t=DATE
Jesse- I agree with TOF re insider selling. We never really know the reasons and that isn't a shocking amount to me. However, it usually pressures the stock so as traders we need to consider it's impact on ST share price.
I see TZOO estimates were cleverly reduced w/ the latest "reiterate buy recommendations". Next year's estimates $2.36 to $2.04 to $1.82 this week.
That's very bullish imo.
TZOO is the only company that I can think of at the moment that can legally juice its earnings at eoq. All they have to do is flood the market with deals.
Let's see if they can rock and roll local deals these next 2 weeks.
Lastly, they showed their tv commercial to let's say 300-400 million people at the end of last quarter. One would think that would have a substantial impact on their traditional biz. So... there could be a big surprise there. If their traditional biz is flat this quarter, the stock is toast probably forever.
TOF, what do you like about SSN's chart? From a fundamental basis, I see a lot of energy stocks that are very cheap and worth buying, but I'm trying to figure out how to be a better chart reader to get better entries and exits.
Daughter now moved in at UCLA. We Yelped restaurants in the area and ended up at the Marmalade Cafe in Santa Monica. I had a farily unique version of the Reuben- toasted/buttered rye stacked high with hot slices of pastrami + homemade sauerkraut + hint of jack + thousand island drsg. Damned good.
Had to drive back this afternoon in order to make a soccer game early tomorrow morning.
Still liking the skepticism. The fewer the believers in this bull the better. Both the II and the AAII sentiment numbers were pleasant surprises this week in that regard.
Manilow...I heard the same thing a few years ago. I've always wondered, why these groups continue on the senior circuit, casino's etc?? They can't possible need the money right?
Just signed up for Lenny Dykstra's 'Speed trading from the pen' trial offer! I'll keep you guys posted.
"David- Re TLT. Damn. Why always the short-dated options?"
I first bought October $115 puts on TLT and then, as it moved in my favor the next day, I was sure that it is the start of a collapse, and so I added a bunch of September puts in different trading accounts. Then, when TLT jumped to $111, I stopped myself out of all September puts. Or so I thought. I actually overlooked this last bunch of September $113 puts. So the answer to your question is: I intended them as a short-term trading vehicle and simply forgot to close them the first time TLT rose above my entry price a few weeks back. Now I only have October $115 puts. Let's see if I'll be able to make some bucks on THESE.
You sure about that, Mark? I heard it was titled 'How trading sped my way TO the pen.'
I've always wondered the same thing. It's one thing to tour the way the Stones do. But playing to an audience of mostly empty folding chairs in 90 degree heat at the Manchester County Fair?
Good review of the oversold condition of the market by Santoli in Barrons this week. Still says we need a catalyst like the European banks going up to get the market moving.
Some f'd up sh*t I came across with DATE's IPO papers. Check out this link to the IPO papers:
Scroll down to page 5 which describes the ownership structure. You notice about 7 layers of ownership. The top layer is the major shareholders, of which public shareholders have about a 20% or so stake. All of these shares are contributed to a Cayman entity, which then contributes shares to a British Virgin Islands entity, which then contributes to a Hong Kong entity, which then contributes to two entities within China. I believe this is probably normal operating procedure as China has laws against foreigners directly owning a China based company from what I remember. So big deal right?
Well, the issue becomes a little muddied when you look at the income statement on page 10. Everything looks fine as you work down the income statement until you arrive at the following line item:
"Income allocated to participating preferred shareholders"
You'll notice that 100% of the income of the company is allocated to these shareholders. So should the company go poof, I would have to imagine common shareholders get zip.
I'm sure my analysis of this is a big naive, but it makes me really scratch my head and wonder if the short sellers of all of these companies are correct.
Nice shot Mark and Kendra. Good form on camera and field. And I'm feeling good because the Fighting Illini just beat Arizona State in a close one. AZ State was ranked 25th. Illinois not ranked (yet).
Ave monthly rentals for Q2 was 55 million per month per onlinemarketing trends. As of July 2011 they had 4 million video game rentals (they didn't roll out the service nationwide until April or May I think). I expect video game rentals to become up to 10% of total sales.
Also, the company has had 2.2 Million Droid App downloads, 4.5 Million iPhone App downloads, 30.5 email subs, and 8.8 Million unique monthly visitors to redbox.com.
The disc rental market is 6.2 Billion rentals er year in the US. Redbox's share of this market went up from 12% in 2009 to 19% in 2010.
Anecdotally, I went over to the 7-eleven near me tonight and 7 people were in the kiosk line in the 5 or 7 minutes I spent at the Redbox kiosk and at 7-eleven.
"Buffet Tax" on > $1M new Submitted by Illini (574 comments) on Sun, 09/18/2011 - 00:09 #95354 Seems like this was high on the agenda when he met with the big O. Shoring up BAC also? Most likely.
TOF - "I'm sure my analysis of this is a big naive, but it makes me really scratch my head and wonder if the short sellers of all of these companies are correct."
Maybe, sounds similar to the VIE structure.
Anyway, here's what a short seller has told me consistently(this one is specific to SVM attack, but I suspect stock never recovers once people realize VIE structure denies actual ownership of foreigners, ie: no entitlement/recourse if CEO raids, sells, or defrauds):
"Re: John Bird aka Waldo Mushman 16-Sep-11 12:47 pm My target is < 2.00. Short selling against valuation issues seems to be an uphill battle. I prefer the realm of potential outright criminal fraud. SVM is not my project and I am not familiar enough with its gene pool to start dissecting it.
The SAIC documents have been a ticket to ride for me for over 2 years. If a Chinese entity has SAIC disparities there has yet to be a case where the SEC filings turned out to be correct. Add the issue of related party transactions and you have a high probability of purposeful deceit.
The Chinese very closely regulate the inflow and outflow of cash and do not allow convenient CNY currency conversions. I will guarantee you that 100% of all dividends have been paid from funds that never left Canada. The SAIC documents (the full filings, not the cover page) reflect the inability to send money from China to Canada. The laws of China require minimum earnings and capital amounts before any money can be shipped out of the country. The SAFE controls these transactions and separate bank accounts are required to handle the transactions. The information that the SAFE examines before an offshore dividend is approved are the SAIC filings...and they report the losses A*L shows.
The 1.3B Fraud charge was on the unfortunate anonymous letter, not in the published report. A*L is smarter than that. Believe me, the short sellers are keenly aware of what the legal tests for fraud are and we are equally aware of libelous accusations statutes.
Why are you here?
ReplyDeleteVery cool TOF!
I hang back from the hyenas, annoyed by the thought I won’t get to meet him. But then there is the tiniest of pauses, and without thinking, I blurt out “Ray, I don’t have a business card for you, I just wanted to thank you for your emphasis on process.”
ReplyDeleteDalio turns, extends his hand. I introduce myself, shake his hand, and add “I find your focus on self-reflection and error correction, on enlightenment refreshing compared to the rest of Wall Street.” or words to that effect.
He swivels around to face me full on, and says “Isn’t that what it is all about? If you don’t understand yourself, how can you ever meet your goals, in life or in investing?”
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/09/ray-dalio-the-machinery-of-finance/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheBigPicture+%28The+Big+Picture%29
TOF- I've seen a few segments about that guy. Pretty cool. I saw footage of one of his friends fly into a bridge at 300 mph. Not a pretty site:(
ReplyDeleteAfter last night, I think I need a day off from drinking topics. My head is still spinning from the nightclub I went to last night lol.
I've always been a big fan of Glen Rice since his days at Michigan. Way to go Glen:)
ReplyDelete"CHARLES BARKLEY gave Glen Rice major props yesterday, but not for anything he did on the basketball court. Former NBA player Rice slept with Sarah Palin - or so he claims in Joe McGinniss' book, "The Rogue: Searching for the Real Sarah Palin,"
Dalio interview if your interested.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/09/bridgewaters-dalio-on-europe-economy-strategy/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheBigPicture+%28The+Big+Picture%29
TOF, from last night - yes, downloading TV shows and movies is illegal, but it is the same as downloading music and that has not stopped people.
ReplyDelete"According to the IFPI report, which represents the music industry worldwide, 95 percent of all music downloaded online is illegal -- that is, obtained without rights from the holders of the property."
Jesse, your history of past returns and whether being in an relationship or not were interesting. I have a friend who divorced his wife just so he could focus totally on the market, he lives and breathes it.
ReplyDeleteBut if it is not too much of an intrusion, what line of business were you in to acquire 8 figures of wealth?
A very small percentage of people ever achieve that feat. If you do not want to say, I understand. Your experience has certainly changed your perspective on life from what I can tell.
T3-
ReplyDeleteI was working as a parking attendant working my way through business school. I saved up $33k and put it in the market in 2002. I think I pulled a David and got a cash advance for a couple thousand. Those were the only funds I've ever put in the market.
Aside from having a couple of businesses- student laundry service and party bus company, I've never had a "real job".
When the shit hits the fan, I'm hoping I can get a job at a sexy furniture company:)
I started writing a book about my experiences this summer and started having second thoughts. I've always tended to shy away from the spotlight. Most of my friends have no idea about my Livermoresque history.
ReplyDeleteT3,
ReplyDeletewho is going to spend your friend's money if he doesn't have a wife anymore?
And for the record, it was just shy of 8 figures. 8 figures could be a $99 million port. That would be nice lol:)
ReplyDeleteJesse that's incredible, thanks for sharing.
ReplyDeleteBB, he has a son so we are both out of luck.
A Template for Understanding What’s Going On
http://www.hedgefundletters.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/a-template-for-understanding.pdf
weekend reading if interested
Mongolia etf MNGGF is up 600% in past 6 months.
ReplyDeleteOver the next 2-4 years, the growth in Mongolia will be unlike anything we've ever seen in modern times. GDP will literally triple overnight when mining operations commence soon.
There are hedge fund managers and bankers swarming Ulaanbataar as we speak. I'd like to head up there to seek some opportunities, but its the coldest capital city in the world:(
Sorry, WAS up 625%. Now only up 500% on this pullback.
ReplyDeleteWLL upgraded by Capital one. Good Bakken assets and beaten down..
ReplyDeletelong
Done for the weekend over here. Off to bed for me.
ReplyDeleteCiao Jesse.
ReplyDeleteMDW off @ 2.98. Might be getting faked out by the order flow. I'll take the $500 bucks. Thanks for pointing it out yesterday T3D.
ReplyDeleteI'm done for the day, that was a quick and painful ride on the pain train.
ReplyDeleteGoing to start putting 50% of my time into swing trades and only trade the Cl, the TF is kicking my a**.
small starter positiion in tzoo at 32.75...about 2% of port. i see one more run to 40 b4 earnings
ReplyDeleteSVN CEO Interview:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bnn.ca/News/2011/9/15/Silvercorp-CEO-calls-allegations-criminal.aspx
TRID - Not doing so well today, still got my eye on the company. Amazingly terrible financial conditions there, hard for me to believe they survive much longer unless claims of market share really are true.
ReplyDeleteI see at minimum reverse splits and dilution to infinity but they could conceivably pull it off.
A real, real, really long shot.
"Over the next 2-4 years, the growth in Mongolia will be unlike anything we've ever seen in modern times. GDP will literally triple overnight when mining operations commence soon."
ReplyDeleteWhen I think of Mongolia, I think of yaks and the mining industry. I should probably study up on it.
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Site Meter
Estimated S&P 500 Q3 Earnings Growth Drifts Lower
Friday, September 16, 2011 at 12:24PM
Below we highlight the change in the estimated year/year (y/y) earnings growth for the third quarter for the S&P 500 as the quarter has progressed. As shown, earnings growth expectations for the index have steadily declined throughout the quarter, starting at 17.5% (y/y) and dropping down to 13.7% (y/y) as of today.
=> So, earnings expectations have droppped, but are still up 13.7%. I think up 13.7% would be just fine.
"Let your positions run."
ReplyDeleteRun??? There has not been two consecutive down days in TLT since I bought puts on it 3 weeks ago! Yesterday's decline is no exception.
Nice rebound in AUMN today, from $11.55 where I bought it yesterday. Another little push up and I'll sell $12.50 covered calls against the shares I purchased yesterday -- that will be my "money pump" with an "options twist." :)
ReplyDeleteToday I sold at $1.25 my 4000 shares of AZMTF (AZM.V, which I bought at the average cost of $2 a few years ago) so as to finance my yesterday's purchase of AUMN. AZM doesn't seem to be going anywhere, while AUMN definitely has a LOT of room to go up.
But I am pretty sure GMO will hit $4 next week, and I'll sell $4 calls against the shares I bought today and will get out of margin soon after that as the shares will be called away. It definitely seems like $3.50 has been the bottom for GMO this summer.
SSN looks very interesting chart wise.
ReplyDeleteNice swoon in TLT we just had. I decided to put a sell stop order at $1 for the 3 September $113 puts I have.
ReplyDeleteJust woke up. The stuff that I'm watching: BAS, TEX, FRO, AKS, MTL all down around 3% on an up day. Don't like the way they are/have been acting. None of these beaten down insider buying plays have done squat on this huge rebound. Concerns me a bit.
ReplyDeleteSold my stuff completely flat. Will wait until next week.
On that note, its back to bed for me:)
TOF-
ReplyDeleteSSN looks interesting. In that space, check out ZN lol.
SSG's rubber band looks stretched pretty tight to me. Probably doesn't bode well for post op-ex Monday/Tuesday.
ReplyDeletePerfect backtest for the Euro.
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$XEU&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=20&i=p24053712547&a=211104317&r=145
ZN = ouch.
ReplyDeleteCheck out AIS. Looks like it's ready for another run.
I was just talking on the phone with an investor rep from AUMN (finally, I was able to get a hold of one), and when I looked back at the market just now I saw that TLT did a predictable sharp rebound and my stop at $1 did get hit. Well, at least I recovered $1 from each of my September $113 put. I bought them at $5.15, however. :(
ReplyDeleteI mean I don't have a clue about any of these china stocks but it does look like perhaps CGA and YONG aren't going down the tubes.
ReplyDeleteNow back to AUMN. After talking to the investor rep, I concluded that serious people have finally taken over the great ECU resources, and they WILL see that those resources are developed. For example, while the ECU folks were saying that they are an exploration company and hence they are not planning to move forward with any new production besides the measly one they had at the Velardena (no wonder their stock was stuck at the same level for years), the AUMN rep said that they are a production company and hence they won't start any new exploration efforts in Velardena for the next 3 years (besides the small ones ECU has currently going) and will instead put all their efforts into increasing the mine throughput to 2000 tpd and into constructing the 2000 tpd sulphide plant.
ReplyDeleteHe said that the bottleneck in underground mining (which is the one they have in Velardena) is the mine throughput (not the milling capacity), and they feel that 2000 tpd is the maximum mining throughput they can realistically achieve for Velardena. Thus, once they build the 2000 tpd sulphide plant, they will close the current 500 tpd oxide plant and the current small 320 tpd sulphide plant. He said that oxides represent only a small fraction of Velardena resources and that lead and zinc are recoverable only from sulphides and not from oxides, and thus the final AgEq grades for sulphides are expected to be close to 450 g/t, while the oxide ore only has 300 g/t. Thus, if they can only produce 2000 tpd of SOME ore, they might as well go for the higher-grade sulphide ore, and thus they'll close the oxide plant once the 2000 tpd sulphide plant ramps up. Still, they expect the 2000 tpd sulphide plant to produce annually around 8M OzAgEq (GPL is expecting to produce 3.7M OzAgEq in 2012, SVM is expecting to produce 5.4M OzAgEq in 2012). At that point, they will start focusing on their El Quevar property, which they expect to produce annually around 5M OzAgEq. So once the 2000 tpd mill ramps up in 3 years, the P/E assigned to the AUMN stock will be pretty high in expectation of further production arriving from El Quevar. That implies an easy 10X increase in AUMN over the next 3 years.
What milestones will happen on the way? There will be two major ones: updated 43-101 they plan to release in 4Q2011 and then the Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) for the upcoming 2000 tpd plant in the summer of 2012. I suspect that when that PEA is produced, the market will have to start reckoning with the fact that huge cashflow is inevitable for AUMN in 2 more years, and the share price will already adjust at least 2X to 3X from where it is now. So we have a 2X to 3X potential for AUMN in 1 year and then another 2X to 3X potential in 2 more years. Not too bad...
More on AUMN: don't miss the fact that while they expect to produce in the 4Q2012 using the two small ECU plants twice the amount ECU was most recently producing with these plants, this will not be important as that production won't last -- it is all about the 2000 tpd plant that they will start operating in 3 years. Similarly, it will be totally unimportant that they expect the production to decline in 2H2011 (before ramping it up in 2012), and if AUMN goes down because of this near-term production drop, that will constitute and *AMAZING* buying opportunity.
ReplyDeleteThere seems to be another mass shooting in Tucson the Airforce base is locked down. Love this town. Can't wait to see Anderson Cooper, so cute!
ReplyDeleteJust placed sell limit orders for 5 contracts of October $12.50 AUMN calls at $1 and at $1.25. I don't see a large catalyst for AUMN in the next few months, and so selling covered calls during rallies is a good way to make some bucks.
ReplyDeleteAlso, just placed a buy limit order at $3.55 for extended hours for 1000 shares of GMO.
ReplyDeleteCool chart. Draw a trendline from the 4 previous SOX tops going back 5 months. It hit it to the penny today.
ReplyDeleteIn the past, I'd be a big buyer of SSG or puts, but as I said during drinking topics yesterday, I'm done trying to play the general market. Only special situations given proper setups.
They closed CVV for the week exactly on the 10 week moving average. This is where the big boys have been buying it.
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=CVV&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&i=p07776904748&a=235509790&r=229
For me, I'm STILL waiting for a re-acceleration of backlog.
I'm scrolling through a bunch of individual charts and after one of the greatest short term crashes in market history and a subsequent significant rise, I don't see anything surging. About the only thing surging is NFLX.
ReplyDeleteI really think that the entire investing world has put every penny of savings they have into AAPL and that by itself is causing the indexes to surge.
They certainly aren't putting money to work in all of the plays that have been beaten down 50%+ over the past couple of months. In fact, they are still selling them.
My super oversold watchlist always surges leading out of a market collapse.
ReplyDeleteHere's my watchlist:
PCX down 10% today
FRO down 4.5% today
TEX down 4%
MTL down 3%
BAS down 3.5%
TZOO same old same old
Then I could go on about the horrendous performance of the momo's: CVV, MITK, NFLX, OPEN etc.
I don't get it. I'm putting an AAPL market order in right now for Monday's open.
You should buy after hours now if possible unless you fear a gap down.ISN'T A OPEN MARKET ORDER a LICENSE TO STEAL?
ReplyDelete"They certainly aren't putting money to work in all of the plays that have been beaten down 50%+ over the past couple of months. In fact, they are still selling them. "
ReplyDeleteThat smells like opportunity.
"Then I could go on about the horrendous performance of the momo's: CVV, MITK, NFLX, OPEN etc. "
There is a big rotation going on from the high fliers to the blue chips in my opinion. Given that we're still under the 200 DMA after 6 weeks gives me a bit of pause and backs up this rotation theory.
I currently only have a 1% stake in CVV and a 2% stake in TZOO. However, I'm thinking of adding to CVV next week. You said "For me, I'm STILL waiting for a re-acceleration of backlog." - you won't get that until next quarter's earnings. In the meantime, the thing giving everyone pause is the CEO selling. Who the hell knows why...dudes getting older and has been around for years so maybe he's just setting himself up?
One other company I LOVE is DATE. Check out the rev growth on this sucker:
http://financials.morningstar.com/income-statement/is.html?t=DATE
More than 7 fold over past 2.5 years.
I hadn't really taken notice of the CVV insider selling TOF. IMO, that's a ton of selling for such a small company by the entire exec team.
ReplyDeleteMy gut is that margins will take a hit due to new production facility. That was my biggest concern when I first read the Thinkequity report.
GMO...
ReplyDeletehttp://seekingalpha.com/article/293971-more-black-swans-for-general-moly?source=yahoo
Jesse- I agree with TOF re insider selling. We never really know the reasons and that isn't a shocking amount to me. However, it usually pressures the stock so as traders we need to consider it's impact on ST share price.
I see TZOO estimates were cleverly reduced w/ the latest "reiterate buy recommendations". Next year's estimates $2.36 to $2.04 to $1.82 this week.
ReplyDeleteThat's very bullish imo.
TZOO is the only company that I can think of at the moment that can legally juice its earnings at eoq. All they have to do is flood the market with deals.
Let's see if they can rock and roll local deals these next 2 weeks.
Lastly, they showed their tv commercial to let's say 300-400 million people at the end of last quarter. One would think that would have a substantial impact on their traditional biz. So... there could be a big surprise there. If their traditional biz is flat this quarter, the stock is toast probably forever.
Twits comment of the day...
ReplyDelete'Fell asleep. Sold TZA for a .88 loss.'
Probably should have covered my YRCW short today.
ReplyDeleteTOF, what do you like about SSN's chart? From a fundamental basis, I see a lot of energy stocks that are very cheap and worth buying, but I'm trying to figure out how to be a better chart reader to get better entries and exits.
ReplyDeleteThanks
Daughter now moved in at UCLA. We Yelped restaurants in the area and ended up at the Marmalade Cafe in Santa Monica. I had a farily unique version of the Reuben- toasted/buttered rye stacked high with hot slices of pastrami + homemade sauerkraut + hint of jack + thousand island drsg. Damned good.
ReplyDeleteHad to drive back this afternoon in order to make a soccer game early tomorrow morning.
UCLA!! Congrats Dad. You should be proud.
ReplyDeleteCan't stand the powder blue, but that's another story.
Still liking the skepticism. The fewer the believers in this bull the better. Both the II and the AAII sentiment numbers were pleasant surprises this week in that regard.
ReplyDeleteShe's already talking about rushing sororities.
ReplyDeleteI heard something on the radio down there about Barry Manilow backing Ron Paul.
ReplyDeleteBut the really interesting thing was a comment about Manilow's accountant making off with everything a few years ago. Everything.
ReplyDeleteDavid- Re TLT. Damn. Why always the short-dated options?
ReplyDeleteManilow...I heard the same thing a few years ago. I've always wondered, why these groups continue on the senior circuit, casino's etc?? They can't possible need the money right?
ReplyDeleteJust signed up for Lenny Dykstra's 'Speed trading from the pen' trial offer! I'll keep you guys posted.
"David- Re TLT. Damn. Why always the short-dated options?"
ReplyDeleteI first bought October $115 puts on TLT and then, as it moved in my favor the next day, I was sure that it is the start of a collapse, and so I added a bunch of September puts in different trading accounts. Then, when TLT jumped to $111, I stopped myself out of all September puts. Or so I thought. I actually overlooked this last bunch of September $113 puts. So the answer to your question is: I intended them as a short-term trading vehicle and simply forgot to close them the first time TLT rose above my entry price a few weeks back. Now I only have October $115 puts. Let's see if I'll be able to make some bucks on THESE.
You sure about that, Mark? I heard it was titled 'How trading sped my way TO the pen.'
ReplyDeleteI've always wondered the same thing. It's one thing to tour the way the Stones do. But playing to an audience of mostly empty folding chairs in 90 degree heat at the Manchester County Fair?
Some events just aren't well-conceived.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2011/09/16/national/a170016D06.DTL
Good review of the oversold condition of the market by Santoli in Barrons this week. Still says we need a catalyst like the European banks going up to get the market moving.
ReplyDeletehttp://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052702303392404576566901176717130.html?mod=BOL_hpp_dc
Goldman adds Lloyds Bank (LYG) to conviction buy list with 80% upside - says trading at 4 x 2013 EPS.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/33224/lloyds-banking-group-has-79-per-cent-return-potential-says-goldman-33224.html
GMO - Bruce Hanson, one of the corporate officers accepts to serve as Chairman of Nevada Mining Association. - Wonder why?
ReplyDeleteHanlong rotates an expatriot b/c assignee was retained in Australia on insider trading charges.
Stuck in sideways range, or is someone about to pull the plug?
Somebody must've been shorting it y-day...
CP- There was obviously a rush to get out EOD. On the other hand, a single 1.3M share block traded at the close.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXZrveuMP4Q&feature=results_main&playnext=1&list=PL1F4616F7830C90CC
ReplyDeleteSolid playlist.
Actually that's not a great playlist...
ReplyDeleteSome f'd up sh*t I came across with DATE's IPO papers. Check out this link to the IPO papers:
ReplyDeleteScroll down to page 5 which describes the ownership structure. You notice about 7 layers of ownership. The top layer is the major shareholders, of which public shareholders have about a 20% or so stake. All of these shares are contributed to a Cayman entity, which then contributes shares to a British Virgin Islands entity, which then contributes to a Hong Kong entity, which then contributes to two entities within China. I believe this is probably normal operating procedure as China has laws against foreigners directly owning a China based company from what I remember. So big deal right?
Well, the issue becomes a little muddied when you look at the income statement on page 10. Everything looks fine as you work down the income statement until you arrive at the following line item:
"Income allocated to participating preferred shareholders"
You'll notice that 100% of the income of the company is allocated to these shareholders. So should the company go poof, I would have to imagine common shareholders get zip.
I'm sure my analysis of this is a big naive, but it makes me really scratch my head and wonder if the short sellers of all of these companies are correct.
Sorry link:
ReplyDeletehttp://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1511683/000104746911004715/a2203664zf-1a.htm
Thought this was a good pic.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.screencast.com/t/vvRaFBVe2WQr
TOF- I just read that. Makes no sense to me. Who would invest in something like that? I don't get it.
Nice shot Mark and Kendra. Good form on camera and field. And I'm feeling good because the Fighting Illini just beat Arizona State in a close one. AZ State was ranked 25th. Illinois not ranked (yet).
ReplyDeleteTeams have not played each other since 1987.
nice pic mark. what was the result?
ReplyDeletegot some more facts on Redbox:
Ave monthly rentals for Q2 was 55 million per month per onlinemarketing trends. As of July 2011 they had 4 million video game rentals (they didn't roll out the service nationwide until April or May I think). I expect video game rentals to become up to 10% of total sales.
Also, the company has had 2.2 Million Droid App downloads, 4.5 Million iPhone App downloads, 30.5 email subs, and 8.8 Million unique monthly visitors to redbox.com.
The disc rental market is 6.2 Billion rentals er year in the US. Redbox's share of this market went up from 12% in 2009 to 19% in 2010.
Anecdotally, I went over to the 7-eleven near me tonight and 7 people were in the kiosk line in the 5 or 7 minutes I spent at the Redbox kiosk and at 7-eleven.
Fat tire is on the menu tonight on DT. Bottoms up!
ReplyDelete"Buffet Tax" on > $1M new
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by Illini (574 comments) on Sun, 09/18/2011 - 00:09 #95354
Seems like this was high on the agenda when he met with the big O. Shoring up BAC also? Most likely.
TOF - "I'm sure my analysis of this is a big naive, but it makes me really scratch my head and wonder if the short sellers of all of these companies are correct."
ReplyDeleteMaybe, sounds similar to the VIE structure.
Anyway, here's what a short seller has told me consistently(this one is specific to SVM attack, but I suspect stock never recovers once people realize VIE structure denies actual ownership of foreigners, ie: no entitlement/recourse if CEO raids, sells, or defrauds):
"Re: John Bird aka Waldo Mushman 16-Sep-11 12:47 pm My target is < 2.00. Short selling against valuation issues seems to be an uphill battle. I prefer the realm of potential outright criminal fraud. SVM is not my project and I am not familiar enough with its gene pool to start dissecting it.
The SAIC documents have been a ticket to ride for me for over 2 years. If a Chinese entity has SAIC disparities there has yet to be a case where the SEC filings turned out to be correct. Add the issue of related party transactions and you have a high probability of purposeful deceit.
The Chinese very closely regulate the inflow and outflow of cash and do not allow convenient CNY currency conversions. I will guarantee you that 100% of all dividends have been paid from funds that never left Canada. The SAIC documents (the full filings, not the cover page) reflect the inability to send money from China to Canada. The laws of China require minimum earnings and capital amounts before any money can be shipped out of the country. The SAFE controls these transactions and separate bank accounts are required to handle the transactions. The information that the SAFE examines before an offshore dividend is approved are the SAIC filings...and they report the losses A*L shows.
The 1.3B Fraud charge was on the unfortunate anonymous letter, not in the published report. A*L is smarter than that. Believe me, the short sellers are keenly aware of what the legal tests for fraud are and we are equally aware of libelous accusations statutes.
John"
CP- I think I follow what you posted above. So this is a letter to you from a friend?
ReplyDelete