Sunday, September 18, 2011
09/17/11 Each time the market rallies they still run
It's clear (to me, anyway) that we're moving higher. Stop clinging to the Bear. The Bull can make you just as happy.
One less bell to answer
One less egg to fry
One less man to pick up after
I should be happy
But all I do is cry
Since he left my life's so empty
Though I try to forget it just can't be done
Each time the doorbell rings I still run
I don't know how in the world
To stop thinking of him
If you want to stop ending the day you start out, crying your heart out, move your chips to the pass line. All that talk about resistance levels? Resistance levels were created by God to let traders have some fun with the blitz.
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Speaking of fun- we lost 7-2 yesterday, but you-know-who scored both goals for the losing team.
ReplyDeleteHow was the Alley Kat, tof? We had pizza last night at Amici's. I washed mine down with 22 oz of Downtown Brown:
http://www.lostcoast.com/beers.html
Plan is for more fun today. I'll fill you guys in when I return this evening.
ReplyDeleteMark - Go visit this site, I don't want to agree to terms:
ReplyDeletewww.waldomushman.com
CP- I'm confused. What site is this?
ReplyDeleteMark, it's John Bird's site, he's a big proponent of shorting Chinese equities. Part of the vigilante gang wreaking havoc unto "the space"?
ReplyDeleteGoogle "John Bird Austin Texas" and read about him.
OK, I will not likely be trading tomorrow, just watching with 50% cash. Confidence in a few longs but looking for lower prices overall. Would that be a form of risk protection? Or just a sign of caution in these volatile markets?
ReplyDeleteNot a bull tomorrow?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/9.18.11-futes.png
CP- OK, thanks. I've read to very long pieces about him. I guess my question is..Why would you still be long SVM then? He's thesis is they are all frauds.
ReplyDeleteSo why are we down 20pts. right now? Obama's Buffet tax? One size fits all?
ReplyDelete"Why would you still be long SVM then? He's thesis is they are all frauds."
ReplyDeleteGood question, do you think he's correct(they're all frauds), or do you think he's just a China hater?
I'm not sure if one or both of above, but how can it be true, what is the basis from a technical standpoint and why do so many securities experts seem to disagree?
Anyway, SVM is a Canadian company with operations in China, they have shown receipts for the provincial taxes, experts have visited and studied their mine, they have cash in the bank, they pay a dividend, they're buying back shares, insiders are buying millions worth on the open market.
All classic signs of a scam I suppose, but where exactly is the fraud?
Short and distort scheme can cause confidence damage, and share price to become depressed.
Like I said, I haven't entered John's website.
Looks like we will get my Mon/Tue post op-ex pullback.
ReplyDeleteSo far we have seen 3 or 4 of these -200 futes completely reversed overnight or during regular trading hours. I'm thinking the pattern will be reversed this time.
But again, my new rule is that I won't be placing any bets w/ real money on general market movements.
"So why are we down 20pts. right now?"
ReplyDeleteBecause it's impossible to break above the August high until after something "positive" happens? What brought us off the recent low, it looks technical trend line target was reached.
CP- No neither did I. I read two articles, one from business week, the other, from Bloom. I don't know buddy. Just seems like a tough road to hoe in an already tricky environment. Doesn't mean I wont watch it like a hawk every day though!
ReplyDeleteCP- Some excerpts from the explosion that will happen in Mongolia from a great article on Mongolia from Bloomberg:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-21/mineral-rich-people-poor-mongolia-prepares-for-flood-of-money.html
"Four-fifths of the country is still unsurveyed. Over the next decade, copper production is expected to double, iron ore to triple, coal to grow by six times, and gold and oil by 10 and 13 times, respectively.
raising per capita income -- now at $2,470 -- fourfold within a decade.
From a hedge fund manager...“All it takes is for you to put your feet on the ground here, you can feel the energy everywhere,” he said. “It’s unlike anywhere in the world in terms of sheer energy, apart from New York and maybe Hong Kong.”
CP- Yep, seems like I'm having a hard time with this range. When really, it should be just up my alley.
ReplyDeleteI love Mongolian Beef!
ReplyDeleteAll right, I'll catch you guys tomorrow. Sooner or later i"ll have to move out of cash.
Dinner with colleagues at Burma Superstar:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.yelp.com/biz/burma-superstar-san-francisco
First time I've ever waited 40 minutes to be seated. The food was good, but not that good. Tried a Lychee Mojito also- too sweet.
It doesn't surprise me that futes are down. Let the ST traders worry about it.
ReplyDeleteNFLX news in the middle of the night? Customers now need 2 separate accounts??
ReplyDelete01:46 Netflix to split off DVD business; CEO apologizes MarketWatch
01:18 Netflix CEO: 'I messed up' over price-change news MarketWatch
01:17 Netflix Qwikster brand to launch 'in a few weeks' MarketWatch
01:16 Netflix splitting off DVD service as 'Qwikster' MarketWatch
"It’s hard for me to write this after over 10 years of mailing DVDs with pride, but we think it is necessary and best,”, wrote CEO Reed Hastings in a corporate blog posting. “In a few weeks, we will rename our DVD by mail service to ‘Qwikster,’” which will be moved onto a separate website from Netflix’s video-streaming service."
"The two website will not be integrated, requiring customers to keep separate accounts for each service"
Jesse - The question is: how do we play the Mongolia superstar?
ReplyDeleteI'd prefer a small cap kinda like the one you mentioned the other day...what was it? MNGGF?
TOF-
ReplyDeleteMNGGF was the ticker. Trying to find other ways to play it. There doesn't seem to be much out there.
I think CSTR may put a couple Red Boxes in a few Ushlamabutinaskr outlets in Ulaanbaatar over the next few years. That may be the best way to play it:)
How do we play the Mongolia superstar without short and distort schemes?
ReplyDeleteLarge cap global mining companies?
Drillers get killed on days like this.
ReplyDeleteWhat a gift!
ReplyDeleteNFLX announces some stupid strategy to split it's business into two and CSTR gets whacked $2 and change. So I bought another large chunk at $45.5 average this morning. Now have a very large % of my portfolio in it.
Probably the safest is Invanhoe Mines (IVN). They've been in Mongolia for a long time and I'm pretty sure have gotten all approvals. I know it is a huge mine, but getting Mongolia on board took a long time.
ReplyDeleteUgly bar in GLD. It's all about the dollar today.
ReplyDeleteAdded some CVV at $14.7...now have a whopping 1.5% of my port in it. Planning on buying and holding on that. I'm trying to keep small stakes of tiny companies that have huge potential but a lot of risk.
ReplyDeleteI really think CTCT might be the best stock to trade in the market...
ReplyDeleteGetting concerned about copper down here. Like Mark said, a lot of it is just US$ up, but would feel a lot better about the market in general in Copper could pop back above $4.00 sometime this week.
ReplyDelete'Ushlamabutinaskr outlets in Ulaanbaatar'
ReplyDeleteThat's why the 'net is a game changer. If not for this blog, odds are slim I would ever have connected the appearance of Red Box kiosks in Mongolia with an investment opportunity that may well outperform one in IVN.
Is this just a giant finger to Obama?
ReplyDeleteThe 3 stocks I'm kinda looking at, COOL/HEK/MDW are all green.
ReplyDeleteNegative headlines, negative numbers. Positive headlines, positive numbers.
ReplyDeleteIt's best to ignore the turbulence. Why journey on a trawler when you can take the cruise ship?
EEM, FXI, EWZ etc. just breaking out of their 6 week bear flags. Not looking good.
ReplyDeleteMark- I don't think so. This is another ebb in the timeless rhythm of emotional tides.
ReplyDeleteLet's work off some of the fear.
ReplyDeleteMark-
ReplyDeleteIt sure feels like a giant finger to our portfolios followed by a giant finger where the sun don't shine.
TAN. Wow.
ReplyDeleteThose solar industry reports that I've been commenting on the past couple of months still point to an approximately 40%+ reduction in poly prices. Where the hell would that take TAN and its family? Scary.
You guys have it all wrong. A sell off after last week's move is the steamroller backing and filling for the kind of foundation a real bull requires. I like the sell off.
ReplyDeleteTZOO the star of the show today. All of the stuff I'm looking at is down 6-10%. TZOO holding strong down 1.5%. Must have sold a couple more bikini waxing packages over the weekend.
ReplyDeleteMAJOR MAJOR disconnect between emerging markets making new lows and the U.S. market which is up HUGE from its lows. Not sure what to make of it. Very, very strange. Coming out of a bottom, I would expect emerging markets to be up 1.5-2 times the amount of the U.S. market. Hmmm...
ReplyDeleteI commented about my watchlist being down big on Friday. More of the same today.
ReplyDeleteMTL -6%
FRO -6%
PCX -4%
TBSI -10%
TEX -4%
BAS -5%
QSTR up 4%! Must be the ticker change from NFLX
Jesse - TZOO is done going down before earnings. It's going to $40 again. (FD: Still own 2% of my port in TZOO)
ReplyDeleteLittle quote stuffing in MDW today.
ReplyDeletetof- Read Brett Arends' take on DVDs:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-netflix-doomed-2011-09-19
2nd - I agree with his take...however, people continue to write off the DVD business. Again, the DVD rental business is a 6.5 Billion rental per year business. This latest move by Netflix will only further aggravate it's subscribers and I guarantee that a large portion of the ones that were using them and that are now being told they have to subscribe to this new service called Qwikster will just end up cancelling their service and going with Redbox. I guarantee it man.
ReplyDeleteRedbox owned 19% of the DVD rental market in 2010. My suspicion is with this turmoil in the DVD rental industry (Blockbuster finally closing down it's stores and Netflix jacking up prices) Redbox will be the sole beneficiary and will garner a 50%+ market share. 50%+ of 6 Billion rentals is one helluva business. Especially with those operating margins.
I was thinking about how maybe the new TVs that are out with the LED technology and smart technology embedded (with Netflix hookup) would really hurt the DVD rental business but then I saw the figures on the number of people that bought flat screen TVs over the past 5 years and its insane. I own a 2 year old LCD TV and was watching the games yesterday on my friends new LED TV and the picture quality is the same. The only way I would upgrade and spend $1,200 for this new TV is if it died on me. That ain't happening any time soon. So for me and millions of other people like me it's DVD rentals for entertainment as I don't care to buy a new set top box or try to stream movies from my computer to the TV.
Plus, I don't have the time to commit X number of movies a year with a subscription service and I can save $$ by going with Redbox.
And to top it off, the stock is dirt cheap and revenues are growing very fast. EPS doubled in the last quarter. There's a lot more growth ahead for CSTR. This stock is going MUCH higher.
"You guys have it all wrong. A sell off after last week's move is the steamroller backing and filling for the kind of foundation a real bull requires. I like the sell off. "
ReplyDeleteI agree 2nd. I personally trying to care less and less about the direction of the markets.
There could be some good setups at the end of the day. Perhaps FRO will look really good.
ReplyDeleteBUT, still 5 hours to go.....
Is it possible all three indexes close in the green? I would give 2:1 odds unexpected 'news' causes a rally. Apart from that, 3:1 odds they close green on nothing more than investor psychology.
ReplyDeleteOf course, that means the odds aren't good. I would also add that unexpected news may send the indexes down further.
I am about as long term bearish as one could get.
ReplyDeleteIf we get yet another reversal (what is that 4 or 5 now?) from a -200 futures by end of day, this could be the start of one of the most unexpected/ biggest bull markets in history. I don't know if those in the media are paying notice to these reversals, but as a trader, I SURE AM IN A BIG, BIG, BIG, BIG WAY.
Guys, we still have 5 hours to go. If we close close to green, you have to go ALL IN.
This is the biggest day in a long time in my opinion. If we meander and close lower, everything said above is a mute point.
Or moot point:)
ReplyDeleteValuations are cheap and sentiment as very negative -> this is a combination for a big move upwards, likely before year end.
ReplyDeleteI joked about putting in a market buy order for AAPL at the open today.
ReplyDeleteIt is up AGAIN!!!
Could be time to short TLT today.
ReplyDeleteOh my. Q's off just .16.
ReplyDeleteBeen buying up FRO low-mid 5.90's....
ReplyDeleteI see people are coming to their senses about CSTR after the morning drop. You see, the news from NFLX is EXTREMELY BULLISH for CSTR. I suspect by next quarter they will be doing $1.10 EPS and the stock will be in the 70's to 80's.
ReplyDeleteFRO now 1/3 of its 2009 low of $15.
ReplyDeleteSame ships.
Same business.
Oil from point A to point B.
VLCCF rates at multiple previous turning points.
500% to 52 week high.
$10 book value.
Cash flow posi.
Long w/ stop at today's lows.
Weekly shaping up.
Dependent on market conditions of course.
Will buy more if it goes lower today w/ stop at today's low....
ummm guys - while i don't care too much about the market's gyrations at this point, what the hell is up with copper?
ReplyDeleteSorry to be the only one posting, but I just noticed NFLX was up 4%. Now down 3%. Geez....
ReplyDeleteMust be due to the Redbox/Chuck E Cheese deal.
TOF and I are on the dance floor sipping caipirinhas at world famous "Help Nightclub" in Rio while the rest of the bachelor party are sitting in the corner discussing why the girls of Ipanema won't give them a fighting chance.
ReplyDeleteAs 2nd might say, step up to the bar, put down 2 Real, take a shot of Jager and see where the night leads you....:)
Re Copper, Freeport Mac's strike may be ending, which would add a lot of supply, plus, if we do have a recession, Copper usage will get hit.
ReplyDeleteXstrata out today with a presentation saying supply demand fundamentals are still very strong with demand growing faster than supply again this year, but they are a supplier who wants higher prices.
Those w/ a long-term approach need to look at this multi-year double bottom in TNX as the possible "real trade of the century" that BC referred to 3 years too early...........
ReplyDeleteJesse - the girls of Ipanema are fine.
ReplyDeleteTOF- FWIW, I agree on your take re CSTR/NFLX news.
ReplyDeleteWow...I didn't know John Bogle was 2 feet tall.
ReplyDeleteOK, I am tired of getting screwed by TLT -- its chart is showing a steady sequence of higher lows and its behavior feels very bullish. It is definitely not going down until the Fed actually announces what it is planning to do.
ReplyDeleteSo I just placed a sell limit at $3.50 for all my October $115 TLT puts, while they are still worth something.
David - Just buy CSTR man!
ReplyDelete"David - Just buy CSTR man!"
ReplyDeleteThanks, TOF -- I would rather put my money into an investment vehicle that doesn't depend on any competitors, on consumer habits and on the general economy. If you haven't guessed what this unique investment vehicle is -- it's gold/silver. :) And AUMN is a great way of playing it.
Interestingly, all my Chinese stocks are up today: CAAS, SORL, WATG and CADC. So maybe the whole world isn't going to pieces yet...
ReplyDelete"I would rather put my money into an investment vehicle that doesn't depend on any competitors, on consumer habits and on the general economy. "
ReplyDeleteAhhh but can you truly determine the value of gold?
And are you saying $1 for a night of entertainment is going to get hit in a bad economy?
"Ahhh but can you truly determine the value of gold?"
ReplyDeleteWe already talked about it, TOF. Gold is currency, and the level at which it is trading depends on what is happening with the other currencies. We know what will be happening with the major fiat currencies ($USD and EUR) -- they will be printed faster than the amount of goods and services that can be purchased with them can be increased, and hence their value will keep going down for years, while the gold currency will keep going up for years.
The sell limit order for all my 7 contracts of October $115 TLT puts was just hit at $3.50 (I bought these puts at $6, so I just lost another $2K on this trade). Not good. Never again will I open large long options positions for longer than intraday.
ReplyDeleteTZOO looks like it's gonna make a big move one way or the other. I suspect it's a head fake higher first to $40 and then a move lower on earnings.
ReplyDeleteNDQ -3.
ReplyDeleteHolly crap Kendra! Get the hell out of there!!!
ReplyDeletehttp://www.screencast.com/t/9SeWeGtueVeH
NDQ +3.
ReplyDeleteAnyone making a stab at STVI before it round trips to a quarter?
ReplyDeleteDamn, I didn't think steroids were allowed at that age.
ReplyDeleteAAPL 413.
ReplyDeleteAnd there goes Woo!!
ReplyDeletehttp://www.screencast.com/t/ta6uAuoBr0gM
Obviously no steroids here :)
TOF- In a word, no.
ReplyDeleteNFLX...120 looks good on the monthly/weekly.
ReplyDeletePerfect day for bulls. Worked off a little fear, left a few more losers behind, now set up for further gains.
ReplyDelete"Stocks cut their losses by more than half in the final hour of trading Monday following a report that the Greek finance minister official said the debt-ridden nation may be close to a deal with its international lenders, according to Reuters."
ReplyDeleteTired of this greek and fed bullshit. Would love to trade on econ and earnings. Going to take my ball and go home.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The FOMC announcement at 2:15 p.m. ET for the September 20-21 FOMC policy meeting is expected to leave the fed funds target rate unchanged at a range of zero to 0.25 percent. However, even though some FOMC members are leaning toward additional easing, it is hardly certain. Traders will be watching whether there is a vote for QE3 or the so-called "twist"-the extension of maturities of Treasuries that the Fed purchases. And we may see rate cutting action with the Fed's relatively new policy tool-interest paid on excess reserves
Don't see the point of operation Twist. Rates are low across the curve and getting them lower isn't going to increase economic activity.
ReplyDeleteI think the thing to be doing now is getting the stocks you want at a good price for when the Greek crisis is solved (and it will be solved - even going bankrupt is a solution). Then stocks will leap. Any hint of a resolution has stocks moving higher. When we get the real solution, they will rock.
Tea partay.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PTU2He2BIc0&feature=share
Greek hour glass.
ReplyDeleteI still assume Greece gets the next allotment of money in 2 weeks, followed by full passage of the EFSF by all 17 Parliaments and then an orderly restructuring of Greek debt where bondholders suffer at least a 50% cut in the value of their holdings off par value, more than twice the 21% reduction assumed with the current debt exchange. There are 3 ways to cut debt, pay it off, write it off or inflate out of it. Option 1 is a sign of health, option 2 is always painful but it cleanses while door #3 is the most dangerous. Greece needs to cleanse. In Asia, the Shanghai index fell to the lowest since July ’10 and the Hang Seng closed at the lowest since July ’09
new post
ReplyDeleteWhat did Muddy Waters do to Orient Paper, and how?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.thestreet.com/story/10797742/1/orient-paper-story-behind-fraud-report.html