Wednesday, September 21, 2011
09/21/11 Princess on the steeple and all the pretty people
Quite possibly the song that best defines the anti-establishment generation.
No way for bulls to view today's action in a positive light?
(a) A shitload of ST bulls stunned and blown away. It may be weeks before they return to the table. Thus clearing the way for major gains.
(b) Anxiolytic action. Valium for the bleeding crowd.
(c) A sell-off with enough velocity/ferocity to sweep away the smog of negative sentiment? Today's sell-off came pretty close.
All in all, a damned good day.
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Damn, is FCX a buy?
ReplyDeleteBuy-and-hold is more than a strategy. It's a state of mind which, once arrived at, changes one's perspective in many ways.
ReplyDeleteMark- Let me know if you wish to attend.
ReplyDeletehttp://blogs.marketwatch.com/election/2011/09/21/billionaire-buffett-goes-to-bat-for-obama-again/
2nd - You know the Fibonacci people would say FCX is a buy because it's at it's 50% retracement of the rally off the 2009 lows. Makes perfect nonsense to me!
ReplyDeleteTwo 5 year charts that tell me all I need to know about CSTR:
http://financials.morningstar.com/income-statement/is.html?t=CSTR®ion=USA&culture=en-US
http://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ:CSTR
Revenues up 3 fold, Net Income up almost 3.5 fold. Stock up 50%. Something has to give...you know which one I think will...
"Revenues up 3 fold, Net Income up almost 3.5 fold. Stock up 50%. Something has to give...you know which one I think will..."
ReplyDeleteTOF, if net income is up but the share count has increased even more, then the share price could decline justifiably. So I think it's best to look at EPS, right? Well, diluted EPS was $1.76 in 2009 and is $2.05 TTM right now. So the 50% gain in the stock since 2009 seems a bit too much...
OK, forget MS/GS/JPM et all. How do you explain SLB. This is the world premier oil services play. Hedge funds love it in energy the way they love AAPL in tech. Man, today better be a wash out or else.
ReplyDelete"Jesse, what about Chinese small caps like CADC, SORL and ONP, which have forward P/E ratios of 2 or 3? Do you think that P/E ratio is pricing in something?"
ReplyDeleteDavid- The more time I spend on the ground in China, the more bearish I get about the country. In fact, last week's episode with my girlfriend was about her living in China. She has decided to sell her condo, which I have a feeling will be like trying to sell in FL in 2006 (where I was living at the time).
After a brief period in Guangzhou last week, I decided that other than transit stops on the way to Mongolia, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan, I do not want to spend any more time in China.
I already have a commitment to be in Kunming and Chengdu for 2-3 weeks next month for an agricultural trade show and some other stuff, but beyond that, that should be it for my relationship with China.
Having said that, regarding Chinese small caps, I do believe that they are pricing something in. I would watch HAO closely for a buy setup if one were interested in China small caps.
They are definitely incredibly cheap. But we are talking about China.
Mongolia is where the big $ will be made. Right now, probably the only way to play it is to open up a brokerage account in Ulanbataar.
ReplyDeleteFrom the world's foremost expert of boots on the ground individual country analysis- Simon Black:
"When I think about Asia growth and investment opportunities, places like Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, and even the Philippines come to mind. But lately, in my regular discussions with key Asia contacts– brokers, sovereign wealth fund analysts, etc., one place keeps coming up again and again.
Mongolia.
Mongolia is one of the largest, most resource rich countries in the world with a population smaller than Panama– that’s a lower population density than Wyoming. And with such a low population to support with its abundant resources, the country has the good fortune of being sandwiched in between resource-hungry China and Russia.
Many of my friends and colleagues who are based in Asia make routine trips to Mongolia and describe it as the Wild West– young, fast-paced, and full of opportunities with neither the benefits nor restrictions of established structure.
My old friend Christine Verone, who has an uncanny 6th sense about Asian markets, recently sent me this in an email:
———–
I’m not buying in China right now because I’m not seeing the right indications from the government yet. I will let you know when things change and we can start making money in Shanghai again. In the meantime I am buying in Mongolia as fast as possible.
The stock exchange there is among the smallest in the world; it had a 68% run-up but has since rebalanced to 50% below that level, and there are some fantastic buys. Aside from the broad “metals and mining” sector which is all most people know about Mongolia, there are many plays to found in uranium, cashmere, agriculture… and even new changes in toll roads and water.
It can be seen as another way to play China seeing as nearly 80% of their exports are to the mainland, and an absolute tidal wave of Chinese money is being invested in Mongolia– new infrastructure, luxury hotels, telecom deals, real estate developments, etc.
Everyone from American Express to Ericsson to ZTE is establishing themselves in Mongolia– even Blackberry is launching service in the country… all because a flood of investment dollars and joint venture projects to tap natural resource wealth is creating legitimate, overwhelming demand for services.
ReplyDeleteI am also looking at clues in demographics– population trends are good predictors for change, and Mongolia is a country that is dominated by young people: 70% of the population is under the age of 35. This means that they move extraordinarily quickly and are hungry to get deals done.
The stock exchange was started in the 1990s by a 26-year old entrepreneur– this culture is full of people who want to make things happen.
In contrast to my time working in Switzerland in private wealth management, the Mongols move at light speed. If I were you, I would get this out to your community to see if there’s any interest… and I would suggest two things:
1) The Mongolian Stock Exchange is sitting on multi-year lows; the entire market capitalization is less than $250 million, and daily turnover is often less than $1 million… so institutional capital tends to move prices in a big way.
It’s fairly transparent for foreign investors to get in to this market– which is exactly what I am doing right now. My guess is that there will be a Mongolia ETF very soon once the market has tripled and you start hearing about it on CNBC.
Too late in my book.
2) I know you have a lot of expats who read your letter and are looking for a place to go… I would highly suggest Mongolia– if you have the means and are looking for adventure, Mongolia is a land of opportunity.
Mongolian entrepreneurs are itching to do JV deals with subject matter experts to bring new services to the country… and there’s no such thing as ‘paying your dues’ in Mongolia. You show up, and if you’re smart, you move to the top of the food chain immediately.”
———-
Simon again. What Christine says rings absolutely true… to me, the biggest benefit of living the expatriate lifestyle isn’t the cultural adventure or cheap cost of living– it’s being able to immediately plug in to the movers and shakers who can get deals done and make things happen.
In New York City, San Francisco, LA, etc., it can take years to clutch and claw your way up the ladder and get noticed. Around the world, though, in places like Colombia, Mongolia, Palau, and Panama, it’s possible to become a player very quickly.
Before moving anywhere, though, it’s always a good idea to see the country first hand and scout the opportunities for yourself on the ground. If you’re interested in Mongolia, consider checking out the annual Mongol Rally which takes place in September each year… there is no more unique way to see a country in my opinion."
Copper - Hard to believe they're whacking Dr. Copper so hard here, I thought they said the banks were A-okay?
ReplyDeleteMongolia - I could go for something like that, I'm comfortable just about anywhere.
ReplyDelete"TOF, if net income is up but the share count has increased even more, then the share price could decline justifiably. So I think it's best to look at EPS, right? Well, diluted EPS was $1.76 in 2009 and is $2.05 TTM right now. So the 50% gain in the stock since 2009 seems a bit too much... "
ReplyDeleteDavid - Shares have gone up from 28 million to 31 million as of the last quarter and the company has announced plans to buy back $250 Million or 5 million shares over time. So essentially shares havent changed.
Also, my 50% return comment was over 5 years. In 5 years EPS went up 3 fold yet shares went up 50%. I think people are pricing in waaay too much negativity, which is completely unfounded in my opinion. Redbox is growing very quickly: market share of the DVD rental business has tripled and they're now the largest market share player. My suspicion is they will own greater than 50% of this HUGE (i.e., greater than $6 Billion per year) market within 12 months. When that happens they will be generating $250 Million + in free cash flow and be able to buy back 20% of their stock annually. Its really kind of ridiculous in my mind...believe me, I wasn't a believer in the company, but then I started thinking about just how cheap and convenient the service is and how much room they could expand pricing and still make it the cheapest alternative out there. And after reading/hearing about the hangups people/my friends have with streaming (i.e., it's a pain to hook up, your TV needs to be in good range from the wireless cable model, the titles available thru streaming are older, there are times when the picture freezes) I realized that the market for DVDs ain't going away as soon as everyone thinks. And if that's the case, Redbox is the clear winner, by a long shot.
Jesse - The problem with Mongolia is there's only one way we know of to invest in it...through some young ex-hedge fund kid's make shift real estate company (MNGGF). Not exactly a low risk option.
ReplyDeleteMark - In all fairness SLB is not even that close to 2010 lows. If you see it below $50 then I agree...
Jesse -- are there any companies listed in US or Canada that derive a large part of their profit from Mongolia and that would do very well if Mongolian economy keeps growing?
ReplyDelete6 week head and shoulder patterns breaking down on most indexes (DJIA/NYA/SPX).
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=15&i=p82940327725&a=215328197&r=807
CP is probably better w/ H+S patterns, but my guess is it projects to roughly 9600 for the Dow for the next trading opportunity.
On a separate note, as money will continue to flow out of gold going forward, we could see one heck of a surge in the U.S. dollar that would totally stun the world. The end of fiat currency group-think has been going on for at least 2-3 years now. Nobody is positioned for a revival in the "dead currency".
I head to Laos on Saturday. Their de-facto currency is the U.S. dollar. In the U.S., people don't really have an understanding of just how valuable this "commodity" - the U.S. dollar really is....ESPECIALLY in times of global strife.
ReplyDeleteI head to Indonesia for 2 months in October. Indonesia loves U.S. dollars. In the past week and a half, 1 usd has gone from 8500 Indonesian Rupiahs to 9200!! Wowsers.
ReplyDeleteDavid-
ReplyDeleteOutside of funding my expeditions in Mongolia, here is a how to guide in investing in Mongolia from the U.S.:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/277155-mongolia-an-economic-boom-investment-guide
Thanks again for the heads-up momo stocks.
ReplyDelete03:51 Hong Kong's H-share index slammed 6.3% lower MarketWatch
03:49 Indonesia's main share index tumbles 7.1% MarketWatch
03:14 Europe stocks tumble sharply in wake of Fed action MarketWatch
03:09 Hong Kong H-share fall to more-than-two-year low MarketWatch
03:03 Rio Tinto tumbles 5.6% as metals prices drop MarketWatch
Do we finally get the Crash of '11?
ReplyDeletejesse- I recently watched a 20/20 report on the tobacco craze in Indonesia, where even 2-year-olds light up, and when asked why she doesn't intervene, the Heath Minister dismissed the thought by more or less saying 'Not a chance.' Any industry that employs that many people/supported by unions- Marlboro country.
Having said that, I sense a bear trap. Light the funeral pyre.
ReplyDelete2nd- EVERYBODY smokes in Indonesia. Very disturbing. Very, very few smoke here in Thailand.
ReplyDeleteLaos is a different story. You can smoke whatever you want in Laos- Mary Jane, tons of opium, meth derivatives.
You are all in for some crazy posts from me over the next 2 weeks!
Will be an interesting day today.
ReplyDeleteLately, moves down have exaggerated in Europe and then the bottom and turn back up led by the US, so be interesting to see if this happens today or if we get a downward continuation.
Earnings look fine this morning (even Rite-aid showed improvement!), plus the big takeover by UTX at a substantial premium.
The other thought I've been having is that we can't really bottom until everything gets shaken out. Copper has been hit the last few weeks and now gold is finally starting to fall. Perhaps this is the beginning of the end.
Another intersting good economy stat on a day full of bad news:
ReplyDeleteThis morning, the American Institute of Architects published its billingsindex results for August. The leading indicator surprisingly jumped to 51.4from 45.1 in July. Any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings.There is generally a lag of 9 to 12 months between architecture billingsand construction spending. The index has rebounded after declining for four straight months. The inquiries for new projects index also gained 3.2points, increasing to 56.9 in August from 53.7. These increases aresurprising given the flow of negative news in August and the increasingfear of a recession.
FED Yesterday - "Significant downside risk"
ReplyDeleteBrutal open.
ReplyDeleteHigh Dollar - Well, the higher dollar should help create millions of jobs, and less than a few hundred in the US...
ReplyDeletePM's. Fing wild.
ReplyDeleteits all good...channeling 2nd...just buy some cstr already guys.
ReplyDeletespeaking of which piper jaffray starts with overweight and price target of 68...says "dramatic uptick" in google searches for them as alternative to netflix in light of netflix debacle.
The best news on days like today when everything is getting crushed - an increased takeover bid on one of your largest holdings. Bought Zarlink in fall of 2008 for $0.29 and being sold today for $3.98. The question is do I sell today at $3.94 and reinvest in the fear or wait 3 weeks to make an extra 1% on the deal.
ReplyDeleteThis is my 4th stock being taken over this year.
====================
MSCC, ZLKKF.PK
9:53 AM Microsemi (MSCC -4.1%) has prevailed in its efforts to acquire Zarlink Semiconductor (ZLKKF.PK), after raising its offer price to CAD $3.98/share, 19% above a hostile bid price of CAD $3.35/share. Microsemi will pay for the $525M deal in cash, and expects it to be accretive to its FY12 EPS by $0.24-$0.26. [Tech, M&A, On the Move] Comment!
BB- Nice!!
ReplyDeleteTOF- Both CSTR/MITK holding up well.
Gaps down - I see them everywhere...
ReplyDeleteEEM- R U kidding me?
ReplyDeleteI'm starting to think that some of this stuff may need to be bought. Need to do some chart work. TVIX, VXX may be at their limits.
FexEx FDX -7.02% the package delivery company cut its fiscal 2012 profit forecast, citing slowing global trade, especially in Asia
ReplyDeleteLooking at some weekly charts. Looks like this might take a few more weeks to play out.
ReplyDeletePretty harsh reaction on Fedex. They cut their forecast by a dime from $6.25 - 6.75 from $6.35 - $6.85. That's 1.5%. I guess it could be seen as the first of many, but, if you're management, why not lower the expectations all at once to be sure you can beat later on.
ReplyDeleteWe must now switch to a weekly perspective. Virtually all momo's cutting through their 10wma's which have held for the most part during bear raids the past couple of years.
ReplyDeleteMOMO weekly:
MCP -34%
DTLK -19%
CVV -14%
PPO -13%
MITK -13%
IDCC -10%
There are many more, but 80% of the momo's have been taken off the screen as they are no longer "momo" stocks. Put simply, most are down well over 10-15% for the week.
speaking of MCP...
ReplyDeleteMCP - H&S points to a 50% haircut. Just sayin'...
ReplyDeleteMCP - One encouraging feature of this particular H&S pattern is the positively sloped neckline. See the recent double top, a clue indicative of the downside that actually happened with a target to the lower trend line(reached and overshot).
ReplyDeleteWould MCP present extreme opportunity value at $15ish? So are all these H&S patterns playing out? They have confirmed, but that doesn't mean they actually play out...
If you push something hard enough, it'll fall over.
Let it rain, let it rain, let it rain.
ReplyDeleteMCP - monthly S2 @ 34.43 briefly violated this morn before reversal. Yearly Fib-S1 @ 22.60
ReplyDeleteThis might be comparable to being incarcerated, and learning my son got beat up.
ReplyDeleteMarkets down? Talk to me in 12 months when CSTR is at $100 and people realize the move to streaming is going a lot slower than people thought it would. Gotta feed people's desire for cheap entertainment somehow. Blockbuster stores? Gone. Hollywood Video? Doing the dodo bird impression. $1 DVDs at Redbox kiosks...the only game in town.
ReplyDeleteIMF - Current global economic situation nearing dangerous phase.
ReplyDeleteJust bought 100 more shares of TBT at $18.88. These rates are pure madness, and this madness will blow over in a short order...
ReplyDeleteCopper - +DI under 10 again, usually a good entry...
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$copper&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p99295968853&a=217994610&r=7 736
GDXJ: -9%, wow...
ReplyDeleteAUMN: -15%, WOW!
Just sold 5 November $10 puts on AUMN for $1.20 each. All on margin. Will have to draw on my 401-K plan just like October 2008 if I start getting margin calls...
Also, just noticed that my sell to open order for 10 October $3 puts on GMO has been triggered at $0.25.
ReplyDeleteTBT -- down 8%. This is the largest down day I have ever seen for TBT. Ah, here is the reason -- I bought some yesterday for the first time this year! :)
ReplyDeletePeter Brandt's S&P 1000 in the mail?
ReplyDelete$Dollar - Well, everybody wanted a stronger dollar, that's what Ben delivered yesterday. Hope they like it...
ReplyDeleteProof he's not out of bullets when it comes to averting a dollar collapse, all he has to do is say something remotely bearish concerning the economy, or raise rates a bit...
Gold - $1705 needs to hold else the Aug 8th gap up, then 144-SMA are target levels.
ReplyDeleteMy take on the market: we're probably going lower. Find yourself some companies that will thrive in bad environments until Europe can cleanse it's system. Recession proof stocks...there are still some out there and some that are actually going to grow because of market disruptions etc. You know which one I'm in. But others with similar business models should work fine.
ReplyDeleteI don't see a 08 style selloff...if we go lower it will probably take time and reach a crescendo phase in the next 6 months while Europe finally realizes the Euro ain't the solution...or at least in its current form.
TRX...Wow.
ReplyDeleteMITK has a gap to fill @ 8.96.
Mark - I think MITK shareholders are in for a rude awakening next quarter. I still think they are messing with their sales to show continued rev growth. The whole booking Chase revenues in one lump sum smells fishy to me. Especially when they spelled it out in the financials that they would only do so after all services were launched with them, including presumably Bill Pay.
ReplyDelete$CAD is down 4% against $USD today -- this is pure panic...
ReplyDeleteFrom BC this morning:
ReplyDelete"In Europe all the parts of the equity market I focus on (Bankers, Oilers & Miners, and Consumers) are getting trashed this morning. One group of us – the strong hands – is smiling."
He is starting to sound like 2nd_ave... :)
JOYG - Resting on the lower trendline here...
ReplyDeleteWhy the big volume here?
ReplyDeleteIn case we get a gap down tomorrow which then reverses while I am still asleep, I am putting a sell limit order at $12 for the DB puts I picked up two days ago at $6.87. Nice to be making money SOMEWHERE during this sell-off. :)
ReplyDeleteTOF- I went through that issue pretty seriously. I think we came up with only about 60K in the last Q that was recognized. I also couldn't find anything in the Chase news about bill pay being part of the original deal. Either way, I seriously doubt I would hold through earnings again. It seems like they are hiring at a pretty good clip.
ReplyDeleteMDW cracking here?
ReplyDeleteOK, it's official. The worlds ending.
ReplyDeletePlacing a sell limit order for 20 November $2.50 puts on ONP at $0.50, in case we get a gap down tomorrow. The current prices are already AMAZINGLY good for a 2-year time horizon, and so I'll be totally fine taking out 1/2 of my 401-K again so as to cover my margin and THEN go on vacation for 2 years while waiting for my positions to go up many fold.
ReplyDeleteI'm seeing a lot of miners off 20%. No takers?
ReplyDeletegood news: I made my daily trading number ($300)
ReplyDeletebad news: my long port lost $40K
T3D- You out there?
ReplyDeleteMark - I'm telling you bro...you'll be wishing you didn't buy CSTR at these prices 6 months from now. The only risk in my opinion is a short term negative reaction to a VISA debit fee hike. Even if that goes through there are ways around it: CSTR could have people charge through debit cards as credit cards, tell people it's $0.16 more to use a debit card...or just raise prices $0.16. Any way you slice it that amounts to $1.16 a movie at worst...which still blows away the competition. It's the only game in town man.
ReplyDelete"PMI data indicates a third month of contraction in the Chinese manufacturing sector against a growing backdrop of inflation."
ReplyDeleteHey bro! Been worried about you. Got your email this am. Going to Steve's wedding?
ReplyDeleteha...i meant to say you'll be REGRETTING...
ReplyDeleteTOF- No, I hear you. The more I think about it the more I like it. We just don't watch many movies, so I have to ignore that. Kinda waiting until we see a bottom.
ReplyDeleteMark- If this is the end of the world for our generation, then we have the luck of the Irish.
ReplyDeletejb- I'm sitting at the same bar. Actually, the bar includes 90% of the investing world.
"I'm seeing a lot of miners off 20%. No takers?"
ReplyDeleteI am taking them. :) I sold puts on GMO and AUMN at amazingly low strikes for amazingly large prices.
LNG.
ReplyDeleteHey Boys - good to see everyone is alive and well. time for us to tip a few 2nd!
ReplyDeleteMark - not sure, are you going?
I see that the asking price on AUMN November $7.50 put is $0.55 -- amazing! I just placed a sell to open limit order for 5 contracts of such puts at $0.5 and for 5 more contracts at $0.75.
ReplyDeleteHeard a guy on the radio say this should is nowhere like 2008. Companies profits are much better and, more importantly, the financial system continues to function as can be seen by the 1 month LIBOR rate 0.23% vs. 4.5% back in 2008.
ReplyDeleteMark - At this point I think you kinda need to ignore technicals and just look at valuation. CSTR announced a $250 Million buy back over the next 12 months using the cash on hand and the cash flow they're generating (which should be north of $200 million this year). The company is only worth 4.8 times that. It's worth less than 6 times this year's cash flow, which by the way is growth like 30%+ as people realize Redbox is the only game in town. I don't know man. I'm definitely biased as my cost basis is $45.9 and my port is taking a bath, but this is just getting kind of silly. Let's say the debit fee increase goes through and they have to raise prices $0.16. Do you really think that's gonna kill their company?
ReplyDeleteHere's the way I look at it. If I were holding ultralong funds, I'd be ----ed. But since I'm about as long as the average Joe, then on a relative basis, I'm just experiencing a flat day ;)
ReplyDeleteAlso mark...from a technical standpoint, $38 is kind of the line in the sand. If you don't have conviction like I do...then set a stop at $36.
ReplyDelete2nd - another way to look at it, when we pony up to the bar, we're all drinking our sorrows together. Beats drinking alone.
ReplyDeleteJust got back from a 2 week vacation.....damn girl!
ReplyDeletePz- I don't know about you, but when I'm on vaca, I don't leave the markets behind.
ReplyDeleteMan, I remember when we were loving F @ 15.
ReplyDeleteAnyone else think buys in here will look pretty good in the morning?
ReplyDeleteMark - I was looking at F the other day...the financials on that look better than they have looked in years. I can't believe they actually have positive equity and its growing fast...in a year or two they will be approaching book value, which is rapidly decreasing.
ReplyDeleteGCI is another one that has this terrible perception around it but the cash flows of the company are so strong that it will be able to buy back it's company in only like 2.5 to 3 years. Seriously I don't know why they don't just do that. Mkt cap is $2 Billion and they generated $700 Million in free cash flow last year. That's INSANE!. A buyer of that company could have all of their money back in 3 years. And then any residual value is just gravy.
Shit CSTR could do the same in just 6 years. And I'd consider CSTR a much stronger business than GCI.
"in a year or two they will be approaching book value, which is rapidly decreasing. "
ReplyDeletemeant to say their market cap value.
BEXP/Oil both look low risk here...
ReplyDeleteBB - On weeks like this when I was long in the past I would always take the weekend to read some chapters from One Up On Wall Street by Peter Lynch. It gives you great perspective on how meaningless selloffs are in the greater scheme of things if you're invested in stocks that you believe in for the longer term.
ReplyDeleteIf I wasn't holding, I'd be buying.
ReplyDeleteCopper:gold - In early December 2008, during the Great Recession, the ratio hit 573 lb/oz.
ReplyDeleteI think I just heard the dumbest thing I've heard in a while when I turned on CNBC on my sirius radio just now:
ReplyDeleteSome guy by the name of Brian Stutland (Spelling?) said he hates hearing when people say you should buy and hold stocks, especially now when the VIX is elevated like it is right now.
Umm...excuse me but when in the history of the VIX has it been a bad idea to buy with an elevated VIX?
Holy shit- Whitman snatches the reins from Apotheker.
ReplyDeleteSome of the people they got to talk on CNBC - you wonder if they have a clue. i find Friday after the market closes to be the worst - guess the smart people are getting ready for the wekend.
ReplyDeleteNice strong dollar day for the US, I call economic victory!!!!
ReplyDeleteI am glad I didn't use up all my promotional credit card cash checks yet. So selling November puts is fully justified for me now, since if this madness persists for a few more weeks, I'll just deposit more credit card checks into my account and will use that new money to cover my margin.
ReplyDeleteHPQ - Leo walks away w/millions, but what about all those folks he brought with him from SAP? the rich get richer no matter how stupid they are.
ReplyDelete2nd- I was in the mountains for 2 weeks....tough to take it with you. :)
ReplyDeleteBought some GDX and some NVS (cara recommended) today. Had positive trades in UXG and UPRO for lunch money.
Currently Long UXG, VZ, Chscp, NVS, BRKB, and OAKBX/CWGIX. 40% cash.
I know I been more quiet than usual lately. Guess I just clam up when the going gets tough. Weep, Weep. Bawl, Bawl (while pounding fist on table). Wonder what I'd do if I wasn't still in 1/2 cash.
ReplyDelete"Wonder what I'd do if I wasn't still in 1/2 cash."
ReplyDeleteYou would be like me, then. :) Somehow, I always manage to get myself fully invested just BEFORE a major market collapse...
Look at the chart of 30-year Treasury yields at Yahoo:
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^TYX+Interactive#symbol=^tyx;range=5y;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=;
This chart will be updated tonight to accurately show the latest point: 2.79%. This looks like another once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to short 30-year Treasuries...
In December 2009, once 30-year yield reached 3%, it took it 3 more days to bottom out at 2.55%. Two weeks after bottoming out, the yield was above 3% and in two more weeks it was above 3.5%.
ReplyDeleteThe 30-year yield closed today at 2.79%, so there are probably only a few more days at most left in the Treasury rally... If the yield gets below 2.6%, I'll start buying TLT puts again.
"You would be like me, then. :) Somehow, I always manage to get myself fully invested just BEFORE a major market collapse... "
ReplyDeleteDavid - As long as you're not leveraged to the hilt, then just pass the bong man...there will always be higher times.
TOF- Thanks for your take on F.
ReplyDeleteCP- Man, I bet you'll be surprised by this, but it might be too early for BEXP. Lybia is coming on line, they're finding TOO much oil in Texas/Bahken, and if we get more hints of demand slipping, 60 bucks here we come.
PZ, love the mountains in the fall. Where were you?
ReplyDeleteS&P Futures are now up 8, but a lot can happen between now and morning. Either we'll have a crash (unlikely) or a bounce. The key will be how high and if it holds.
ReplyDeleteGoing through my stock list tonight and a lot of stocks are really good values now trading at sub-5 P/E, but if we get a recession, the E will be the issue.
WTIC - Mark - I see what you mean, this chart isn't quite there yet, or more like not enough to convince me it's completely oversold:
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$wtic&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p99295968853&a=217994610&r=7 736
This chart's more appealing:
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$copper&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p99295968853&a=217994610&r=7 736