Thursday, September 22, 2011
09/22/11 Have you ever been Experienced?
I know, I know
you'll probably scream n' cry
That your little world won't let go
But who in your measly little world are you trying to prove that
You're made out of gold and can't be sold
An entire generation of buy-and-hold investors entered 2008 without 'experience.' It's not an easy strategy- reference the number of positions sold into the '08-'09 downdraft and yet to be replaced.
Have you ever been experienced?
Well, I have
And I like the violence this week. Those able to survive (better, thrive amidst) the destruction and carnage will emerge stronger, wiser, and ultimately wealthier for the Experience. The sommelier exits with a parting 'Enjoy.'
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We're not chumps here, we're not fish. We're convicts, no? Nothing here you haven't seen before.
ReplyDeleteYo, a little Downtown Brown.
ReplyDeletePersonally, I don't get the Whitman decision.
ReplyDeleteIt was probably a Board meeting where one member who owes her one piped up, 'What about Meg?' And after 2 or 3 martinis apiece, 'Man I like that idea!' 'I second that!' 'Two more.'
ReplyDeleteTomorrow's headline- 'Investors don't give a whit about Whitman.'
ReplyDeleteA whitload of Whitman.
ReplyDeleteAlright, how about this- Ellison puts 30/share on the table for the company?
ReplyDeleteWTIC - Mark - I see what you mean, this chart isn't quite there yet, or more like not enough to convince me it's completely oversold:
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$wtic&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p99295968853&a=217994610&r=7 736
This chart's considerably more appealing:
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$copper&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p99295968853&a=217994610&r=7 736
BB- I would agree that a large gap up, if today was indeed a bear trap, would be required to close all entrances and exits.
ReplyDeleteWhere's Altucher when you need him?
ReplyDeleteI honestly don't see a ORCL/HPQ deal unless it's just to give them the worlds biggest finger and hand it over to Hurd.
ReplyDeleteWow. I know everyone of these Co.'s.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2011/9/22/worst-performing-stocks-over-the-last-two-days.html
Something for consideration:
ReplyDeletehttp://peterlbrandt.com/cotton-is-the-leading-indicator-for-stocks/
One last chart, I like this one better:
ReplyDeletehttp://2.bp.blogspot.com/-L_RPFV3X7Bk/Tnuh8xhV1iI/AAAAAAAAHPY/Ru4qY2hRwrY/s1600/sc-1.png
CP- Re- your last chart. Isn't that the same bull flag that failed so many stocks the past few days?
ReplyDeleteBear flag of course. You have to admit, that little POS MITK has held up far better than anything out there.
ReplyDeletemark - you said the def'd rev from chase amounted to $60k for MITK? i beg to differ man...I believe it was at least $1 Million. where did u get that number from?
ReplyDeletealso, while it didn't explicitly say in the 10k that all services included bill pay, it was implied in either their conference call and/or their investor presentations.
and if it was $60k...doesn't that make you wonder that that was the amount they recognized for 12+ months worth of service from as large of a bank as chase?
just saying man...
http://tickerforum.org/akcs-www?post=135432
ReplyDeleteThe above link has links to Bloomberg charts for all European spreads to German bunds and also, at the bottom of the page, has links to Bloomberg charts for all European CDSs.
While CDS rates for Italy, Spain and France are at all-time highs now, they are still relatively low, around 500 (which means that it costs $500 to insure $10000 worth of 5-year bonds), implying that the chance of default is 1/20 for these countries. For Greece, however, the CDS rates were as high as 5000 a few days ago, but since then they came down to 3500, so it looks like the Greek default is not going to happen within the next few days.
Thus, the current market sell-off is probably going to be an orderly pullback, where at some point shorts will start covering and will give us a nice rebound rally, as opposed to a disorderly day in, day out liquidation like we've seen after Lehman's collapse.
I can now clearly see where I went wrong:
ReplyDeleteMan Works 1 Day for Chicago, Goes on Extended Leave for 15 Years, Gets $158,000 Annual Public Pension at Taxpayer Expense, Now Working for Hedge Fund
If you need evidence on how corrupt self-serving unions and union officials can be, then please consider Ex-labor chief's 1-day rehire nets $158,000 city pension
A retired Chicago labor leader secured a $158,000 public pension — roughly five times greater than what a typical retired public-service worker in the Windy City receives — after being rehired for just one day of active duty on the city payroll, local news reports said.
According to The Chicago Tribune, Dennis Gannon stands to collect approximately $5 million in city pension funds during his lifetime. He now draws the pension while working for a hedge fund, the Tribune reported.
Gannon, former president of the Chicago Federation of Labor, was able to take a long leave from a city job to work for a union and then receive a city pension based on a high union salary. That arrangement is allowed under a state law signed by Gov. Jim Thompson on his last day in office in 1991, according to an investigation by the Tribune and WGN-TV.
The change has enabled a couple dozen labor leaders to become potential millionaires.
What is different in Gannon’s case is that he became eligible for the especially lucrative pension deal only because the city rehired the former Streets and Sanitation Department worker for one day in 1994, before granting him an indefinite leave of absence, according to the investigation. He retired from the city job in 2004 at age 50.
Gannon’s pension is so high that it exceeds federal limits and required Chicago’s pension fund to file special paperwork with the Internal Revenue Service to give it to him, the Tribune reported.
"I am extremely proud of my many years of service to the city of Chicago and the working men and women of organized labor," Gannon wrote in a statement provided to the Tribune.
The tribune reports ...
The pension came on top of Gannon's union salary, which had grown to more than $240,000. He now draws the pension while working for a hedge fund, Grosvenor Capital Management, that does work with public pensions, including the Teachers Retirement System of Illinois. The firm also was one of Mayor Rahm Emanuel's largest campaign contributors.
Chicago Teacher's Pensions Massively Underfunded
Care to see the results Gannon presided over? Please consider Interactive Map of Public Pension Plans; How Badly Underfunded are the Plans in Your State?
Picked up a little NFLX 127.99
ReplyDeleteTraded in my HPQ for FCX pre-market. I just can't hold a position in a company being managed by someone I don't trust.
ReplyDelete2nd - I like that move. Copper is in absolute crash mode though...but it's still above last years lows by quite a bit.
ReplyDeleteLooks like Europe put in a bottom. For today at least. Could be some trades for today.
ReplyDeleteSold NFLX for .04 profit! Put a couple stinky bids in for TZOO (I know, I know).
ReplyDeleteOff to the races today....
ReplyDeleteFRO - What's wrong with this stock, have they lost business due to new tanker capacity coming on line while North American crude production(Canada sands + shale) has rapidly increased?
ReplyDeleteSVM - Silvercorp files suit against A*L.
ReplyDeletePicked up TBT 18.83. Probably will place stop .15 lower or so...
ReplyDeleteLittle bit of money going resources.
ReplyDeleteHey, where's that spanking I was promised? ;)
ReplyDeleteMy suspicion is if we break the 1,120 lows, we break it for a day or two, then bounce hard right back up. I think the odds of this being right around the lows is quite high. Think about all of the shit that has been thrown at this market and how hard it is to break it lower.
ReplyDeleteBEXP - I knew that sucker was bottomed!
ReplyDeleteSold TBT for $352 profit. Probably leaving a lot of money on the table, but that should easily get me through the next month over here.
ReplyDeleteCP- Good drill results/guidance today from BEXP.
ReplyDeleteAltucher weighs in-
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/no-worries-for-a-worrisome-market-2011-09-23#
Crude under 80, OIH red, APA 52W low...man, I don't like it still.
ReplyDeleteVIX outside of bolinger band which happens a couple/few times per year. As most on the board know, first close back under the band is a buy signal. Watch it closely. I believe the level is right around 41.19.
ReplyDeleteJesse- How much is lodging?
ReplyDeleteI still think HPQ will break $20, and at the price I will be a buyer (for a hold).
ReplyDeleteI'm beginning to think this whole fear about the Euro countries is going to be a big yawn a few years down the road.
ReplyDeletePicked up TEX 10.76. Market cap now at about a bil. Should do about 7 bils next year. Lots of insider buying to boot.
ReplyDelete"fear about the Euro countries is going to be a big yawn"
ReplyDeleteI read a comment somewhere theorizing that it's overblown b/c US Treasury needs to keep borrowing at low rates.
So they're kicking the debt can harder and harder, sucking money from the market to do it.
All in an attempt to avoid the inevitable firing up of the printing press once they can no longer fake folks into buying US gov. debt.
Perhaps we would've been better off if they'd just done nothing and let the chips fall in 2008, sure didn't like the thought of that at the time, still don't.
Just print and get it over with, government cannibalism is eating the economy.
Mark-
ReplyDeleteLodging standard price is slightly less than $5. I think it'll be lower in Laos. Meals are just under a buck. Portions a bit on the small side. I usually get 2 entrees which runs under 2 bucks (no tax/tip anywhere in Asia). I had an Indian feast tonight w/ 4 entrees which was by far the most expensive meal of the trip. 110 baht which is $3.50. Transport not too much either. 12 hour VIP double decker bus trip just ran me $10.
Damn- We should all retire in Laos.
ReplyDeleteTOF- All of this euro stuff is simply noise. Like I said earlier, Greek debt is what the U.S. spends on food stamps per day.
ReplyDeleteThe key issue U.S. debt de-leveraging which will take a long, long time to fully play out.
Here you go 2nd- Laos is DEFINITELY a retirement option. The Lao stock market is my 2nd favorite behind Mongolia. From Simon Black:
ReplyDeleteLaos is one of the most sparsely populated countries in Asia; with just 6.3 million people, its numbers pale in comparison to regional neighbors such as Burma (50 million), Thailand (67 million) and Bangladesh (162 million). The other thing that's important about Laos is that the country is home to some of the most fertile soil in the world: more than 20% of its land mass is ripe for agricultural use. This is an astounding number, and it's no wonder that agriculture makes up the preponderance of the Laotian economy.
Put another way, Laos, with its vast resources and small population, might loosely be considered an agricultural version of Kuwait. But Laos is nowhere near as wealthy, since oil is much pricier than rice, soy, and fish.
All the freshly printed money circulates through the banking system, generating greater volume and higher profits. It's no coincidence that Laos' largest commercial bank (BCEL) is expecting its net income to surge 27% this year, and I'll be curious to see what happens to the Laotian stock market (which just had its inaugural session last week).
It's hard (though not impossible) for a country to head anywhere but up when it's sitting at rock bottom. But what really sets Laos apart from other cheap countries is that it is home to massive amounts of the world's most valuable resource.
No, I'm not talking about oil & gas, or gold for that matter. I'm talking about the stuff we all need to survive-- food. Laos is covered with nutrient-rich arable land that is among the most productive on earth... yet only a small percentage of it has been industrialized and cultivated.
I am a strong believer that the growing world population will increase global demand for food, especially in major Asian population centers. This spells rising food prices. Laos is well-positioned to capitalize on that trend because of the combination of low costs and high yields. Consequently, it won't be long before both Chinese and western companies start leasing and developing large tracts of land there to cultivate agricultural products. In my experience, anytime foreign companies enter a new market, it creates tremendous opportunities for local entrepreneurs who can facilitate business services.For businesses, it's a far cry from the tax nightmares and rising costs in other, more developed countries. Although a one-party Politburo runs the country's socialist political platform, the bureaucrats are fairly hands-off with foreign companies that create jobs in the country.
ReplyDeleteThey realized years ago that the only way to prosperity was loosening restrictions and adopting a more market-oriented economy. They're in the middle of that transition right now.
I think there's ample opportunity in Laos for anyone looking for a crowd-free, low-stress, low-cost place to live and do business. Vientiane would make a great spot to retire, open up a small restaurant or bar, get into the tourism business, or just lay low for a couple years. The city sits on a bend of the Mekong river, literally a stone's throw over the water from Thailand. Vientiane is a cozy little town with unbelievable food and a pleasant, laid-back expat atmosphere. It's distinguished by beautiful Buddhist temples, traditional monasteries, and French colonial architecture.
Vientiane is cheap too. Imagine eating an impressive 3-course French dinner (with wine) at one of the city's finest restaurants for less than $20. You can also rent a luxury serviced apartment for only $1,200 per month. One evening on my last visit to Vientiane, I ducked into a comfortable expat-owned pub that was brimming with locals and travelers alike. Sitting at the bar, I met a friendly Australian woman who turned out to be the owner; she'd been in Laos for eight years and absolutely loved her new home and business.
There are hundreds of small foreigner-owned establishments like hers in Vientiane-- restaurants, pubs, hostels, and tourism businesses. And as she told me, police officers and government cronies are actually a very rare sight.
With so much available at an incredibly low cost, it makes for a great getaway for expatriates who need an escape from the hustle and bustle. Given the future opportunities that I expect, it's a solid destination to plant a business flag or start a new life abroad.
Another large TEX insider purchase literally just filed.
ReplyDeleteFrom RBC conference 3 days ago:
* Reiterating EPS guidance 47-67 cents for 2nd half
* Reiterating cash flow $350-400M for 2nd half.
* In the middle of replacement cycle
* COmpany sees increasingly good outlook
* Price increase to take effect June 1st and 2012 and beyond
* Crane business contininues to grow, in Europe as well
* Large Cranes to be shipped 2nd half
* Watching the markets and listening to news (CNBC) about concerns in Europe. They're not seeing any impact so far. The only concern they would have in regards to Europe is credit tightens (i.e. customers unable to finance their purchasee). They have not seen anything yet.
* They see positve fundamentals, but news media says they should be having problems, but they're not seeing it.
* Order trends very encouraging.
* Demag doing well. No impact on business in Europe.
* Demag takes 25% downpayment on orders which gives them higher rate of deal closure.
* They will eventually have 30% European business w?demag
* They are flat in China. They serve the energy sector $200-300M per year. NOt a amjor player.
* Strength in Rental business. Tier-1 companies ordering and ordering big. Not so much for smaller companies. Surprised by positive trend in non-US business.
Gold - Aug 8th $1673 gap fill - Not a good sign!
ReplyDeleteNow discounted as a measuring gap, could portend a long sideways period at best...
Jesse - thanks for the info man. One question I have to ask because I've tried to get my wife to agree to at least consider trying out a foreign country...what's the health care REALLY like out there? We're both active and healthy (i'm 33, she's 27), but we have a kid on the way and the last thing we would want is to be stuck in some foreign country with shitty health care.
ReplyDeleteBangkok, Thailand some of the best health care in the world. Pretty much any procedure is about 10% of the cost in the U.S. There's been a couple of 60 minutes specials about it.
ReplyDeleteDental care is top notch.
Jesse - what about civil rights?
ReplyDeleteSide note on my favorite current subject (CSTR)...I was thinking about how the debit fee increase might impact them. Then I realized that every time I go to the grocery store I can run my debit card through as a credit card. Why wouldn't Redbox be able to do the same?
Well, Europe closed green, so how bad could it be? Perhaps this was in anticipation of positive weekend news?
ReplyDeleteCP, I think Gold has to crack before the next bull run starts. You can't have every other asset class dropping 20% - 30% and not this one. We need a full and complete washout.
ReplyDeleteI guess the next question is, what about US Treasuries? Do we need them to drop as well?
KBW, this is one item that I think needs to bottom before the market can mount a sustained rally.
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/KBW-Inc-to-Present-at-the-JMP-bw-3477852352.html?x=0&.v=2
later
Pretty strong day for CSTR. Maybe traders are coming around TOF.
ReplyDeleteI need to clarify that this group of indices need to exhibit bottoming characteristics for a market to sustain itself to the upside.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.kbw.com/research/indices.asp
long KBW for a spec/trade
later
Mark - I told you man...the trade yesterday was a no brainer. $38ish is a major support area for the stock. I was foolish to think that it wouldn't hit that again and thought I would miss out on a major run with the Netflix debacle, so I'm long at $45.9....but I think these prices are an absolute steal man.
ReplyDeleteLast night we rented a Win Win from Redbox...we were 3rd in line waiting for a movie. I know it's just one of 30k kiosks, but every time I go by it at night there is someone there...and on Fridays and Saturday nights there's usually at least a couple of people there.
JB- I wonder how many shares were put to Dutch today??
ReplyDeleteTOF- Yeah, it sure was. I'm still cautious as hell on the overall market though.
TOF- Remember, Stalking Rebox is a felony.
ReplyDeleteMark - It's hard no to since it's at the end of our street.
ReplyDeletehttp://216.105.249.165/Mobile/news?id=436700963
tof- Yeah, awesome move for CSTR.
ReplyDeleteIt also appears kicking HPQ to the curb in exchange for a little copper was the right thing to do.
ReplyDeleteSLV/GLD- Did someone decide to use the weed whacker?
ReplyDeleteTOF- I thought that link was going to be a picture of you local box!!
ReplyDeleteI would agree that Agriculture is a good place to invest, but it is hard to find good growth investments.
ReplyDeleteOne of a few that I own is that MBAC Fertilizer which I talked about before just raised $33 million from IFC, a member of the World Bank Group. In addition to the $33.6 million equity investment in MBAC, IFC has received final board approval for a US $40 million project finance facility (the "IFC Debt Facility"). The IFC Debt Facility, which is subject to the execution of definitive documentation, will be in addition to a proposed R$205 million (approximately $114 million) project finance loan from Banco Itaú BBA S.A.
They should be in production late next year, are fully financed and have a NAV of $6.00 at current fertilizer prices for the site going into production. They also have 2 other major sites that could double the NAV and one of these contains some Rare Earth minerals.
They are located in the heart of the Brazilian farming area, so have a major competitive
advantage in transport costs.
Execution is, of course, key now, and their claim for this is "MBAC has an experienced team with over 150 years of combined experience in the business of fertilizer operations, management, marketing and finance within Brazil."
The trade in Toronto as MBC and MBCFF on the pinks and they are no longer grey market so you can see the bid and ask now.
We'll need to close flat in order to gap up on Monday.
ReplyDeleteMark - I'm assuming you will get another chance to buy CSTR at $38 if Visa/MC raise debit card minimum fees. I still think it's completely overblown but we all know how short term the market can be....
ReplyDeleteMan, it's really hard not to play SD here.
ReplyDeleteLNG. Will work on this one this weekend.
A little different view...
ReplyDeleteA bit more from Cashin
Submitted by Bill Cara (2899 comments) on Fri, 09/23/2011 - 12:33 #95944
From Cashin's letter to subscribers today, it is clear that he personally was not trying to scare the little guy, but drawing a parallel to how the current panic may play out.
In speaking about the panic of 1929, he says:
"The classic Thursday/Monday syndrome starts with the kind of action we saw yesterday. The markets open under pressure and selling accelerates in swelling volume. By early afternoon, there is a virtual stampede of selling. Then, later in the session, stocks stabilize a bit based on some reassurance. On Thursday, October 23, 1929, that reassurance came in the form of Richard Whitney bidding “205 for 10,000 steel” on behalf of the bankers rescue pool. (Read a terrific account in the chapter “The Crash” in Fredrick Lewis Allen’s marvelous and essential “Only Yesterday”.)
The action on Friday (and Saturday in the case of 1929) is uneven, often ending choppily steady or somewhat weaker.
Then on Monday, the trapdoor opens with liquidation and margin calls bringing tsunamis of selling.
Is that what’s going to happen? Who knows? If it were that easy, kindergarten kids could do this. But chance favors the prepared mind. Old fogeys will guard against undue risk and exposure. Some may even get out a special shopping list. They will set their basket right, put in silly bids and hope some panicky soul throws a bargain in. Recall the story of the floor messenger boy, who, in 1929, according to legend, bought White Sewing Machine with his silly bid of one dollar when all other bids canceled.
One final note on the syndrome. Not infrequently, the Monday massacre spills over into Tuesday morning - a capitulation bottom in mid-morning resulting in a massive reversal to the upside.
Will this follow the pattern? It’s always a long shot, but we thought you should at least know the history of the pattern. Grace under pressure, Grasshopper. Grace under pressure."
I had to drive to work this morning so couldn't participate in the discussion. I am amazed at how hard silver was smacked today. Today's percentage decline was even larger than we had during any day of the vertical drop in May after the parabolic run up to $50/oz. It must have been the European central bank selling in order to get cash to bail out the European banks after Greece defaults.
ReplyDeleteMy sell to open limit order for 5 contracts of November $7.50 puts on AUMN was executed at $0.50. Amazing...
"I had to drive to work this morning so couldn't participate in the discussion."
ReplyDeleteMan, are you OK David? Maybe you better lay down ;)))
Mark, I am glad I don't have to commute to work every day: 30 min each way adds up to 1 hour wasted every day!
ReplyDeleteThose of us in DC don't have much sympathy...
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDeletePeter Brandt: "Silver is dead meat" (post last night midnight), oil's downside isn't done, August low means 1000, and 900 leads to a lower low than 2009. Add to shorts on a retest of recent highs.
ReplyDeletehttp://peterlbrandt.com/it-is-not-over-until-the-___-____-sings/