Friday, September 23, 2011
09/23/11 Fooled Around and Fell In Love
I must have been through about a million trades
I'd love 'em then I'd leave 'em alone
I didn't care how much J6P cried, no sir
Their tears left me cold as a stone
But then I fooled around and fell in love
I fooled around and fell in love, yes I did
I fooled around and fell in love, I fooled around and fell in love
It used to be when I'd see an ETF that I liked
I'd get out my book and write down her name
But when the grass got a little greener over on the other side
I'd just tear out that page
I fooled around and fell in love
With buy-and-hold, of course. Not unlike marriage- the little things add up. Like three squares/day, a stable environment, someone to lean on when times get tough, and an easier parth to wealth accumulation.
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I don't disagree with Cashin. At some point, the indexes will soar to new highs in a heartbeat. The only way to play it, IMHO, is to buy in and wait. Not a single trader knows when it will happen.
ReplyDeleteListened to the Jeff Saut audio comment for today - cracks me up. Says Peter Schiff or Robert Precter has been trotted out at every tradebale low for the past 10 years and Schiff was on CNBC this week. More seriously, he says he wouldn't be surprised to see more selling Monday as people stew on their losses over the weekend and the then the real final bottom would be late Monday or Tuesday.
ReplyDeleteNice thing about being a buy and hold guy like 2nd is you can just enjoy the weekend and not worry about what to sell on Monday.
Seems to be a lot of fear out there. My guess is a gap up Monday. JJC, PCX, EWG, TEX anyone?
ReplyDeleteVIX closed a few cents above the band. I'm thinking the buy signal will be when it re-enters the band intraday, not closing price.
ReplyDeleteCrap, I'm adding MTL to the list.
Add me to the buy and hold list. I could give two shits what happens on Monday and Tuesday, despite the seemingly crucial nature of this two day quest. I can't tell you how many times I've heard that today is the most important day for the markets in a while over the course of the past 6 months. Puhhhhlease.
ReplyDeleteMy more immediate priority: get my old POS car in sellable condition. A mint, beaten down old 94 Toyota Corolla that gets 40 MPG. Getting new door handles for the front two doors (they broke off and the only way to open them is by either:
(a) leaving the front door unlocked with the windows down
or
(b) leaving the back doors unlocked and reaching from the back seat to unlock the front doors and open with the inside handles.
Yep, I'm as ghetto as it gets. Alas, with the kid on the way we finally have to upgrade the old beater per the wife's request. I'm looking for a twin cab F150 with under 50k miles. If you know of anyone in the San Diego area selling, let me know.
Wow, I didn't know it was possible to use the word 'mint' and 'beaten down' simultaneously when writing a sales pitch for a car ;)
ReplyDeleteOn the other hand, I can think of several beaten-down blue chips that are IMHO in mint condition: for instance- CSCO, INTC and MSFT.
ReplyDeletePeter Brandt(From last night midnight): "Silver is dead meat", oil's downside isn't done, August low means 1000, and 900 leads to a lower low than 2009. Add to shorts on a retest of recent highs.
ReplyDeletehttp://peterlbrandt.com/it-is-not-over-until-the-___-____-sings/
The problem with following the markets as closely as we do is we're too close to the ground. Whereas from 30,000 ft, the entire summer was a normal decline.
ReplyDeleteLet's not forget the 'flip side:' Declines like the one that transpired this week are a NECESSARY EVIL. Why? They make it ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE to imagine value stocks soaring up to 5x from here. Yet it COULD HAPPEN. The market (which is after all just a motley collection of traders) will do its best to make sure NONE OF US sticks around that long.
cp- Alright, I'm going to remember Peter Brandt's take.
ReplyDeleteHulbert, as usual, turns the rampant 1930s analogy on its head. That's right- it's just as easy to foresee a huge rally.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-market-replaying-decade-of-the-1930s-2011-09-23
CP- Have you been following this Barndt guy for a while?
ReplyDeleteI've got a bunch of money coming in next month as I have 2 stock buyouts closing, so I'm trying to figure out where to reinvest this money.
ReplyDeleteI like to buy really cheap stocks that I can hold for a few years and sell when they become fully valued.
It's a tough call here as valuations are good, but could get better even still. Don't mind buying early, but like to try and get as low as possible.
The other thing I am trying to figure out is if the commodity bull of the last 10 years really is done. I find it particularly hard to believe energy is not still a good investment here with Asia moving into the automobile economy and the marginal cost of developing energy continuing to increase.
Or I could just pick up a couple of the mature dividend payers like a UTX, PEP, MSFT or a railway.
Any thoughts?
TOF, see the article in WSJ on CSTR?
ReplyDeleteThe one point that I thought was particularly interesting:
And in terms of rental transactions by unit volume, DVD rentals have risen every year since 2008, according to Tom Adams, U.S. Media principal analyst with IHS Screen Digest.
Problem is, the volume increase was likely driven by low-priced services like Redbox, whose appeal was cemented by tough economic times. But a long-term decline in consumer spending on DVD rentals has been evident for a decade, Mr. Adams notes.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111903703604576589021638699278.html?mod=djemheard_t
This week was really the 5th worst in DOW history?
ReplyDeleteIf so, I'm really getting 'used' to the vol.
Little figgin HEK has hung in there too.
ReplyDeleteMark - No, I have no idea of Peter Brandt's track record.
ReplyDeleteI'm just trying to follow his logic and compare it to others. One thing about PB is he doesn't explain much aside from what he sees in chart patterns.
He claims to have been doing it for a while, so I figure he knows more than I, and I can learn something maybe.
For instance, he's said nothing about silver recently until last night, so I guess once he saw the move yesterday, he called silver "dead meat". Nothing about how long, also neglected to mention where he thought it was headed, no target, so as far as I'm concerned he just saw another down day coming.
Anyway, it was already priced into SVM, which is one reason why I've been interested in SVM.
Silver, one of the catalysts for SVM, got burned pretty badly today though...
TOF likes to remind us about European CDS spreads, so I will point out that both bond yields and CDS rates for France, Italy and Spain were all down today. DB was up 5% today. So the market was not really "flat" today -- something notably positive did happen in Europe.
ReplyDeletePlaced a sell limit order at $20.50 for the 100 shares of TBT (1/5 of my position) I picked up yesterday at $18.87. Just a little trading to offset the volatility decay in this ultrashort.
ReplyDeleteBB,
ReplyDeleteI did a FinViz screen of MSFT vs CSCO and a bunch of other good companies. The two above come out best on the valuation tab. CSCO on top per P/Cash and P/FCF, mostly on the cash indicator. What the hell are they going to do with it? Maybe that is the question.
CP- OK, thanks. I'm trying to think through what has happened since Wed. FOMC. It would seem to me that DEflation is now back on the table. Perhaps that makes sense? And maybe PM traders might be thinking the printing press here will be quite for a while?
ReplyDeleteI checked out CC for the first time in a while and BC seems to be making a case for exactly the opposite of mine above.
I'm looking forward to Erin Burrnet's new CNN show. I liked her.
ReplyDeleteOK, I'm out guys. Early travel tomorrow and I really need to lay down an nurse a glass of wine :)
ReplyDeleteFirst, oil gets a 25% haircut, now silver. Hmm, not all that surprising, but the drop over just two days is good reason to gnash one's teeth...
ReplyDeleteMark - Yes, I suppose inflation just doesn't do much for the economy if jobs aren't being created, like pushing on a rope, I guess.
ReplyDeleteIt'll be interesting to see what the replacement will be, if anything, but isn't it reasonable to think whatever it may be, it will entail something for banks to sink their hooks into?
Or, this may simply be the pre-QE3 smackdown?
Cut 'em off at the past!
I'm seeing some tremendous setups guys.
ReplyDeleteIf the market does not have a gap down (a gap up is almost certain imo), I'm going all in on margin at the opening bell on Monday. It will be tough since I think it will be gap central. I still have a lot of chart work to do this weekend, but I don't think my take will change between now and then. TNX, TBT etc. are telling us a bottom is probably in.
What to buy, what is setting up?
Individual plays: TEX, FRO, MTL, PCX, BAS, JASO
Indexes/Etfs: EWG, EWI, JJC, FXI, TAN,
Bigger cap: RTP
Maybe: CRK
I'm primarily looking for stuff w/ a continual declining chart pattern (no huge 1 day drops like NFLX) that are down 60%+ over the past 3 months.
If you guys know of any others, please share.
Geez-
ReplyDeleteLots more insider buying released for TEX. Day after day. PCX, BAS as well recently.
I don't think there's any chance the market lets us in at decent prices on Monday. Sometimes I hate being on Asian time. I would have been all over the close:(
ReplyDelete-VXX hit my absurd $50 target I predicted here many months ago when it was at 20.
ReplyDelete-TVIX up some 550%.
-100 day put call ratio closed at 1.08 today. This was the very highest close during the crash of 2008. http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$CPC&p=D&yr=4&mn=4&dy=0&i=p75061692405&a=161053055&r=255
-This chart is totally absurd and the odds of it coming down are 100%. Money flows into equities. http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$USB&p=W&st=1970-07-21&i=p24291241665&a=173448764&r=684
-I really, really hope I'm wrong and we gap down on Monday as I love cheaper prices. Don't think it'll happen though.
jesse check out wnc.
ReplyDeletebb - yep i posted that wsj article before. i understand the total dollar amt for rental dvd mkt has been going down but my counter to that is that is due to the price of rentals going dwn. think about whhat the opptions were 10 yrs ago...blockbuster / hollywood video at $4 a pop. now we have $1 a pop and $8 monthly plans. the fact that the total $ amt of the rental mkt is still close to $7 billlion in just the us iis remarkable given the price drops...
side note we left for mall at 6 and 3 deep in line at redbox...got back at 920 and 3 deep in line. the company will do $5+ eps next yr mark my words.
ST:
ReplyDelete"Some of the most speculative traders in the market, those who concentrate on penny stocks, continue to leave the market. Trading volume in August was the lowest since 2002. As a percentage of Nasdaq Composite volume, only October 2008 showed lower relative volume in penny stocks."
Very interesting from Thursday. Implications are Monday could be a HUGE day....
ReplyDelete"The closing TICK figure from Bloomberg was -1086, meaning that greater than 1000 more stocks last traded on a downtick than an uptick at the closing bell. That's a big scramble to reduce overnight exposure .
There have been 14 other days when the closing TICK was -1000 or worse. 10 of them saw the S&P rally the next day, averaging +1.0%.
Of the 4 that didn't rally, 3 rallied the day after that, averaging +4.7% (the one exception was 9/18/01 in the aftermath of the 9/11 tragedy). So basically what we've seen is that when there was such a scramble to get out of stocks at the close, we either rallied the very next day, or the day after that."
JJG another one.
ReplyDeleteS+P reverse H+S pattern emerging:
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=5&b=2&g=0&i=p12095718592&a=193342610&r=530
Dollar 5th wave temporary top.
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=UUP&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=17&i=p77880384514&a=206425238&r=76
Even NFLX actually looks really good on the daily and weekly. Hmmm.
ReplyDeleteThat's it for my chart work for the day. Off to Vientiane on a 14 hour bus ride:(
Another one is cresy...just nosedived.
ReplyDeleteOne stock I follow that just keeps going up is Mlab excellent company.
Of the stocks I follow, I noticed the AG stocks seemed to be turning up the best last week.
ReplyDeletecp - like the Peter Brandt site. One of the comments led me to this
ReplyDeletehttp://standardpoor.wordpress.com/category/daily-road-map/
Also interesting...
PM's - I wonder with the potential for collapse of the euro, if demand for PM's in Europe have increased at all, and if so, if PM producers are able to keep up with demand?
ReplyDeletePerhaps the past two days PM fire sale are indicative of something positive from the perspective of a contrarian investor?
Looks like a good chance we do get the gap up Monday:
ReplyDeleteMulti-trillion plan to save the eurozone being prepared
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8786665/Multi-trillion-plan-to-save-the-eurozone-being-prepared.html
This dude has it made!
ReplyDeletehttp://www.screencast.com/t/6h6hHJ0mlD
HAHA Mark sign me up with the little guy!
ReplyDeleteand for you thrill jockey's:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6t0xqNln5RU&feature=player_embedded
T3D- That's wild!! Man, make me look like a chicken.
ReplyDeleteS+P trend day Monday.
ReplyDelete+54 Huge.
CSTR/Swipe fees...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-23/visa-mastercard-risk-mom-and-pop-ire-with-debit-fee-increase.html
+54-> we're smoking the same pipe, jesse.
ReplyDeleteQuote of the day: '“No one wants to get stuck with the check but it’s going to be Germany, along with France, while the other countries duck out to the bathroom,” said Karl Mills, chief investment officer at Jurika, Mills & Keifer.'
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stock-investors-look-for-europe-fix-2011-09-24
"Quote of the day:"
ReplyDeleteGermany and France took huge advantage of their neighbors, they rightfully should get stuck with the check.
Germany and France - Gosh, why doesn't that surprise me, two of my least favorite Euro countries.
ReplyDelete2nd and I sitting in the corner smoking fresh Laos opium...
ReplyDeleteEarlier headlines about "trillions" in euro bailout.
Now...."Economic worries all over the world...world in a total collapse". http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Economic-worries-all-over-the-apf-84341216.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=8&asset=&ccode=
So.....the powers that be are attempting to take the +295 dow gap to +115.
I'll definitely take it:)
There are no futures available, but from the charts from Friday's close, I would be totally and utterly SHOCKED to not see a big gap open on Monday.
If we don't see a gap higher (lower!!!), I will be the happiest man on the planet.
That way, I can buy the plastic electronic piggy bank company that much cheaper!:)
Copper - About the only chart I halfway like.
ReplyDeleteWhere did the S&P Future finish Friday?
ReplyDeleteThe SPY looks like it finished down a dime after hours (according to yahoo).
I guess my question really is where are you getting the 295 from?
SCCO - Hey, there's the $25 price I've been waiting for!
ReplyDeleteBB - You'd mentioned a copper producer you liked, but it's been a while and I can't fond it in my notes, which one(s) were they again?
ReplyDeleteI've got a few. Most trade in Toronto or on the Pinks. They are all really cheap now. We really do have a lot more better selection in miners in Canada.
ReplyDeleteThe ones are:
HBM - trade in US. They are the one involved in the big mine near you (at least I think it was you). They also pay a dividend.
QUX - Got some good mines in Sudbury and some really good new projects
CUM - brownfield development on a large mine in British Columbia - just going into production. Probably trading about half of real value and often get a big bump in valuation as you go into production.
IZN - by far the cheapest of the in production copper miners. High debt, but most leverage to the upside.
Let me know if I you want any more info on any of these.
CP, the other thing I am looking at now are the Nickel stocks. I think Nickel is less affected by the financial market players and the stocks in London are going down. The one I am looking seriously at is Mirabela MNB.TO or MRBAF.
ReplyDeleteThey have a Sulphite mine in Brazil with 23 years of supply. Sulphite mines are cheaper/easier to mine than the Laterite mines which most new Nickel mines are, but this one is fairly low grade.
They just had huge insider buying by a director who was president of Lionore Mining and sold that company to Russian Norilsk during the last commodity runup before 2008.
Gaps - I hear mentions of gaps up and can't help think to myself that most gaps fill, so I suppose we're talking about a possible short-term trade.
ReplyDeleteBB - "We really do have a lot more better selection in miners in Canada."
ReplyDeleteAgreed, there's no doubt about that. Due to past environmental issues, opening a metals mine in the US has become a huge undertaking.
Just opening a new business and creating employment seems to be next to impossible...
BB - I forgot to thank you for your list...
ReplyDeleteThanks!
WNR - Our old friend sits on a lower descending trend line.
ReplyDeleteIndia faces possibility of Stagflation:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.capturetrends.com/
Overcast + light drizzle in the Bay Area. Didn't stop me from spending 3 hours in the yard trimming the grass and weeding.
ReplyDeleteBAC - Is Buffett a NINJA(No job no income)?
ReplyDeleteYou West Coasters are out of it right now (so am I to an extent). Action today was on Wall Street where protesters were maced. See NYU Grad's posts.
ReplyDeleteI see Nikkei down close to 2% after a rally in the U.S. on Friday. Futures in the U.S. are mostly unchanged. Can't remember the last time I saw this.
ReplyDeleteMy thinking is that Nikkei reverses somewhat higher and we still get a smallish gap up in the U.S. I would just love a flat open.
Latest from Hussman:
ReplyDelete"Still, if I were to venture a guess, it would also be that Greece will be given a small amount of new funding in the coming weeks in order for the government to continue running and delay the inevitable. The reason is that Europe needs time to better prepare for a default, and European leaders appear to be scrambling to get banks to bolster their capital as quickly as possible."
So THAT'S why we had such a sell-off in PMs this week -- banks scrambling to bolster their capital!
Now, Hussman talks specifically about the gold miners:
ReplyDelete"Though we're convinced that the economy is moving into recession, there is actually little evidence of poor performance for gold shares during recessions (certainly nothing like what we see in the broad equity market). Gold shares are generally more sensitive to the trend of Treasury yields, and real inflation-adjusted yields in particular (rising real yields are generally unfavorable). Moreover, the ratio of spot gold to the XAU is now at a record high, so even in the event of a more protracted decline in the metal, it is not clear that the equities will follow. The selloff appeared to be a reflex provoked by the need for some market participants to raise cash, with a relative desirability of selling the biggest gainers."
Hussman also quotes the following words from ECRI last week:
ReplyDelete"Today, we must sound the alarm bells loud and clear. ECRI's leading indices of U.S. economic activity have turned down in a textbook sequence - first the U.S. Long Leading Index, then the Weekly Leading Index, and finally the U.S. Short Leading Index. Their growth rates are also in cyclical downswings, as are the growth rates of every one of ECRI's sector-specific leading indexes. Under the circumstances, there is no indication that a reacceleration in economic growth is near at hand."
"In the process of scrutinizing the evidence, we examined every one of these leading indexes to check whether they are in pronounced, pervasive and persistent (three P's) downturns consistent with a 'hard landing,' namely, a recession, rather than a non-recessionary slowdown. After examining the three P's for all of these leading indexes, we found that the overwhelming majority of their trajectories are currently in recessionary configurations. In practice, such a finding is sufficient to justify a recession call."
Here is what Hussman writes about the new "ensemble methods" he implemented for his fund late last year for determining how much risk the fund should take:
ReplyDelete"I should note again that our ensemble methods, had they been in hand at the time, would not have supported an investment position that was nearly as defensive as we were in practice during much of 2009 and early 2010. They would, however, have been strongly defensive since about April 2010 (as we were in practice), and of course, have been defensive since we put them into use late last year. Still, we've had several periods of modestly constructive exposure since then, and are continually open to opportunities to establish market exposure at points where the expected return/risk profile of stocks becomes positive. So while more than a decade of dismal market returns has largely validated our generally defensive investment stance (and conversely, our defensive stances have generally anticipated dismal market returns), I expect that we are well equipped to identify constructive opportunities even if the market continues to have challenges in producing durable returns for a while. On the brighter side, we also expect to eventually have a market that is priced to achieve both strong and durable long-term returns, as we've had for much of market history outside the past 15 years or so, and in those environments we'll typically be able to get along without any hedge at all."
So Hussman is not a perma-bear, and actually he wrote that in the early 90's he was referred to as something like a "lone crazy bull."
Hussman also gives some very interesting excerpts from the latest report on Debt and Deleveraging published by McKinsey:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/reports/freepass_pdfs/debt_and_deleveraging/debt_and_deleveraging_full_report.pdf
I suggest that you all read those excerpts in the Hussman's letter:
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc110926.htm
Wow, crazy night in the markets - woke up at 3:00 AM to watch the Europe open. Asia was down hard and then Europe opened down and the US futures were down 1.5% and gold got down over $100 (an additional $100 to the loss Friday)and copper was down around $3.00 and oil down another $3.00.
ReplyDeleteThen I get up at 6:30 this morning and everything is fine(except Gold which is only down a few $).
Going to be an interesting day. Looks lie a good chance Jesse's call on the market might be right.
David,
ReplyDeletethe one thing you have to think about with the gold miners is whether the creation of GLD, etc. has altered the longterm relationship between Gold metal prices and Gold stock prices.
The CEO was on TV from Barrick or (one of the big miners) and said in the past people had very little choice in investing in gold other than to buy gold stocks. This meant gold stocks always traded at valuations based on metal in the ground less costs to extract and a premium to other ways stocks were valued in the market. Now that people can just buy GLD, that premium seems to be going away.
We are going to see some huge bounces in a lot of stuff going forward.
ReplyDeleteMTL, FXI, EEM, TEX, PCX, BAS, RTP etc...
Everything I'm trying to get is up 5% pre-market. Let's see if they come down to Earth when the market opens.
You can short the heck out of TVIX near 80. 80? Geez.
ReplyDeletePicked up BAS, TEX, ZOO on this pullback.
ReplyDeleteEnergy services, Cranes, and Internet/travel.
That's diversification:)
I still don't like it guys. All I'm seeing is selling.
ReplyDeleteAdded some MTL to get a some resources and emerging markets in the mix.
ReplyDeleteTVIX - And to think I was gonna buy that one a couple months ago....
ReplyDeleteMark-
ReplyDeleteThis is definitely not how a big day starts.
Dont sweat it guys. Buffett is buying.
ReplyDeleteYou guys still have a chance to get in on CSTR cheaper than I did...it's a huge growth story fellas...
ReplyDeletegrassosteve Steve Grasso
ReplyDeleteTalk of a joint statement from Sarkozy & Merkel at some point...Euro and indicies bounced...
OMEX - Finds 200T of silver in shipwreck
ReplyDelete42.22 the bb level to watch on the VIX for a buy signal. I'm heading to bed.
ReplyDeleteIf you're an intraday trader, and you were able to trade this morning's swings..congrats!
ReplyDeleteOk, I just turned on CNBC to see what the fast ways to lose your money guys were saying and I kid you not this is basically what they said:
ReplyDelete"Well, because Buffett is buying his own shares tells me that he sees nothing of value in the market which is why the market is a sell."
I kid you not.
So the last time I turned it on I heard from Brian Stutland (spelling?) that the reason we shouldn't buy the market was because the VIX was so high and it is always stupid to sell the market with a high VIX...and I thought that was the dumbest thing I've ever heard. Lo and behold I now just heard something dumber.
2nd - I'm not so sure the TZA trade is over for the day. Looks like it's beginning to roll...???
ReplyDeletetof - Grasso usually knows what he's talking about
ReplyDeletemeant to say that he said "...because the VIX was so high and it is always stupid to buy the market with a high VIX..."
ReplyDeleteKyle - in the very short term or the longer term? i remember every single one of these fast money traders saying in November 2008 that because Google dropped under $300 and looked like there was no way it would turn around then it was a terrible time to be buying it. A year later it was up over 100%.
ReplyDeletetof - ST only. Too many macro-variables up in the air (like all of Europe...) for anything more than that.
ReplyDeleteSomething happened at 12:45 it looks like. Wonder if there is some news conference in Europe going on...
Here's what it was (from Vad)...
ReplyDeleteGood test for the markets
Submitted by Vadym Graifer (2455 comments) on Mon, 09/26/2011 - 12:46 #96153
(GE) Germany Fin Min Schaeble: There are no plans to increase the size of the rescue fund
If we drop on this, it's a good indication that this market is addicted to bailouts.
Is Steve Grasso related to Dick Grasso?
ReplyDelete2nd - That's a good question. Someone asked him that on twitter and he didn't answer it. He has a brother over at the NYMEX (gold trader as I recall). But I'd like to know as well.
ReplyDeleteSo far, today is not a regular flat day -- DB is up 7%! And AUMN is down 7%! Guess which one I am long and which one I am short. :)
ReplyDeleteOn the plus side, my sell to open limit order for 5 contracts of November $7.50 AUMN puts was executed this morning at $0.75. So I might be getting some AUMN at the amazing price of $6.75! I'll probably stop with my AUMN put selling now (since I am almost out of my margin buying power) and will wait for it to drop below $7. When it does that, I'll start scaling into 1-year $5 calls on AUMN.
ReplyDeleteClosed my October 165 Gold puts that I bought in August for a little better than a double.
ReplyDeleteThink we get a bounce here are the PM's are carried upwards.
My guess is that we work our way back to about $1,200 gold over the next year as the economy calms down, but I think the driving factor will be how GLD reacts. It helped propel the price up as it was forced to buy high as more units were sold, so I wonder if it won't also drag the price down as units are sold and it is forced to sell into a declining market.
Good trade with GLD puts, BB Canada!
ReplyDeleteI hoped that "this time would be different" and gold/silver won't get whacked once the renewed credit strains appear, but it is the same old, same old... When banks need to pay each other, they still pay in $USD, the demand for which always soars when credit gets tough...
David - Yep DB was the tell for me (well, that and XLF) that we were A-OK for today. Then again, I could care less as I'm 100% long a stock that should do just fine in any economy given that it's two main products are (a) $1 each and (b) allow people to count change faster
ReplyDeleteMongolia is not doing itself any favours to position itself as a country for investment trying to change its contract with Ivanhoe Mines after the fact:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/ivanhoe-pushes-back-at-mongolia-over-copper-mine/article2180166/
I hope you guys sitting in cash are using today to get in. This smells to me like a huge gap up tomorrow.
ReplyDelete1000 SDS @ 24.56.
ReplyDeleteI can't tell if Mark opened SDS before or after reading tof's post.
ReplyDelete2nd - i'm pretty sure he did it in spite of my post.
ReplyDeleteAnd I'm pretty sure we recoup all of last week's losses before the end of this weeek.
ReplyDeleteTOF- It's a pox on the coin counting scam your involved with!
ReplyDeleteWe've all been vaccinated against the coin-counting pox, man.
ReplyDeleteNo such thing as a vaccine that offers protection against SDS, though.
ReplyDelete1157.01 - SPX Weekly Floor PP
ReplyDeleteSDS will destroy your portfolio and your soul at the same time.
ReplyDeleteThe only defense is ABSTINENCE.
ReplyDeletehey - my coin counting pox is up the most out of any of my stock on my board!
ReplyDeleteI give. SDS off @ 24.40.
ReplyDeleteS&P Sept 22th 1164 Gap fill complete.
ReplyDeleteIVN - Ouch,that must've caused some folks to puke a little bit. I know the feeling, believe me.
ReplyDeleteDaily Gold Miners Bull 2X Shares (NYSEArca: NUGT) will become Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X Shares
ReplyDeleteDaily Gold Miners Bear 2X Shares (NYSEArca: DUST) will become Daily Gold Miners Bear 3X Shares
Love the symbols. :)
VIX buy signal confirmed. Closed w/in band.
ReplyDeleteAll aboard! Business class is full. PCX, TEX, BAS, AKS, MTL, etc. all have the plush reclining seats.
There's still plenty of room in economy plus class. Its a big section and only FXI, EEM, EWG, EWI, and TZOO have seats.
Should we should give CSTR my favorite seat on my favorite plane. 48A on 777. Bulkhead w/ 8 feet of legroom:)
The whole world is watching Europe. EWI, EWG have officially bottomed (last week). Double bottom in fact.
ReplyDeletePerhaps more telling for equities is the top in treasuries. TNX, TBT moonshots.
Looks like the momo sell signal offered some pretty good setups heading into the "PIGS buy signal".
Looks like dollar top as well....
Fan lines? I can't believe people use this crap. I just mosied on over to slopeofhope.com and the top post was a recap of what Tim Knight's thoughts were. In part of the post he talked about how fan lines drawn from the top this year downward give a good indication of where there might be a stopping point.
ReplyDeleteThen I thought to myself: this is complete nonsense. A fan line is going to tell me when I should exit stage left?
And I thought you were talking about lines of fans waiting for autographs.
ReplyDeleteNew post.