That's right. The best experiences in life include a shitload of adversity. The Laotians are acutely aware of this concept, and enhance drug-induced bliss by eating loads of cow shit.
I would like to see some pictures from Laos, I've been to Vietnam twice (and on to Cambodia to Angkor Wat) w/ my girl-friend. Rice fields are one thing, but I didn't see any of that wild Jesse stuff.
Mark - FWIW, the LVS trade I made today had a lot of mistakes. Needed to either enter earlier and exit or wait for pullback. I was slow on entry, outlasted the pullback and exited at the sma50 intersection w/ the U-Band...
illini ... re the FED, I think Bernanke has done the best job he could have done given the dis-functional govt, but David Stockman just toasted them on cnbc this morn so I don't know anymore
David Stockman: Even more scary than his true words is the reaction from the talking heads. They seem to discount him as some Psycho crazy. Same way the Mainstream media portrays Ron Paul. I'm sure the Mass public will discount both of them also. When they are proven right about the long term effect of fed policy a "I told you so" will seem very hollow. Media needs to take some responsibility for educating the public, but I guess they are part of the DEBT MACHINE.
Ritholz puts up a table showing the monthly declines in SPX for the last five months: May -1.35% June -1.83% July -2.15% August -5.68% September -7.18% October ?
Damn....the oil stocks I still hold have been worse than that.
RoBear - cnbc has had Stockman on several times (on the noon-time pgm) and every time he's on it seems to me that he really is a smart guy and sees the way it is and we're screwed. His comment in one appearance was 'The US is NOT AAA – It's a border-line “Banana Republic”.' I don'y know, everyone is trying to sell a book, but ...
Juan Cole posted the following today and the last sentence really cracked me up so I thought I'd pass it on for at least a chuckle:
"The al-Qaeda-linked magazine “Inspire” has reprimanded Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad for indulging in “stupid” “conspiracy theories” because of his stance, repeated at the recent United Nations meeting, that 9/11 was a Bush administration inside job.
When al-Qaeda accuses you of being a conspiracy theorist, you’re really a space cadet."
Down further in his blog there is an account of the Wall Street demonstrations (he was there) including a lot of pictures.
Looks like I missed another wild and crazy day. These end of month trading sessions have been brutal. I don't see any positive charts heading into Monday. PC ratio must be pretty darn extreme by now though...
The Fly Quotes He was bullish up to a couple of weeks ago. http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2011/09/30/something-smells-in-china/
"oh, what do we make of this? Do not look to America for guidance, as this country is filled with fucking idiots who would buy stocks on the day of a nuclear detonation over Los Angeles. If China is slowing significantly, there are zero chances for us to rally. Actually, it’s quite laughable that people are buying stocks today, with all of these potential headwinds.
With a Chinese slowdown, our S&P 500 will need to rely on domestic sales: ROFL. One could paint an argument for S&P falling to 600 under those circumstances, as EPS cuts will be far more insidious than any fucktard analyst is factoring in.
Remember, most of these gloom and doom reports are from blogs, not the mainstream media. Who do you trust? I don't trust either even 90% but I trust MST much less than other sources.
-100 day put call ratio now above anything seen during 2008/09.
-NAAIM shows active money managers are LESS than 5% invested!
-"The S&P has now suffered five straight down months. That's happened 18 times in the history of the S&P. It has happened 3 times with September as the fifth month (1966, 1974 and 1981). October was +4.8%, +16.3% and +4.9%.
-The only fly in the ointment is smart money bullish % is stuck at 54%. They were at 80% at the bottom at SPX 1100.
-We start to rally hard next month. The only question is when and from where.
If we get a monthly gap lower (Monday gap down), I will get as bullish as I was in the Spring of '09 when we had a big monthly gap down. A gap down and a fill 1-2 weeks later would be ideal. All fantasy until it actually happens...
Much fishiness w/ TZOO. The "trackers" are projecting a record month of local deals and a huge start to q4.
Yet, 80-95% (depending on your source) of the float is short.
The short money is always the smart money. I just can't figure out why. I'm thinking major cannibalization in their traditional biz (hence jumping the shark w/ tv commercials) or perhaps their cut of local deals has decreased.
W/ local deal revenue being as transparent as it is, I'm assuming lots of investors will load the boat before earnings expecting a significant beat. Unfortunately, Wall St. isn't that easy. Its going to be a very interesting conference call in a few weeks especially since the last one was so entertaining from my perspective.
China - We can certainly use a bit of good news! ;)
There's no such thing as a triple bottom, right?
"I have heard that there is an old Wall Street adage that says that “there ain’t no such thing as a triple bottom.” I have not been able to confirm the existence of that epigram. What I can confirm is that classical technical analysis teaches that the more times a support level is tested the weaker it becomes. This is quite commonsensical. Well, by my count, the market (^SPX, ^DJIA, ^IXIC, ^NDX) looks to be headed toward a seventh test of a bottom first established on August 9. Will this test be any different from the rest? Here are a few things that have got me wondering:"
To that end, I intend to offset a shitload of adversity with drug-induced bliss.
ReplyDeleteKyle- Congrats for ----ing with TZA without getting burned ;)
ReplyDeleteI would like to see some pictures from Laos, I've been to Vietnam twice (and on to Cambodia to Angkor Wat) w/ my girl-friend. Rice fields are one thing, but I didn't see any of that wild Jesse stuff.
ReplyDelete2nd - OK man.
ReplyDeleteMark - FWIW, the LVS trade I made today had a lot of mistakes. Needed to either enter earlier and exit or wait for pullback. I was slow on entry, outlasted the pullback and exited at the sma50 intersection w/ the U-Band...
http://www.screencast.com/t/FiNp6O4Jv
Comment on another blog said this should be the theme song of the FED:
ReplyDeleteDarius Rucker - I Got Nothin
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VBA6-1hNSfE&feature=related
illini ... re the FED, I think Bernanke has done the best job he could have done given the dis-functional govt, but David Stockman just toasted them on cnbc this morn so I don't know anymore
ReplyDeletehttp://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000048484
David Stockman: Even more scary than his true words is the reaction from the talking heads. They seem to discount him as some Psycho crazy. Same way the Mainstream media portrays Ron Paul. I'm sure the Mass public will discount both of them also. When they are proven right about the long term effect of fed policy a "I told you so" will seem very hollow. Media needs to take some responsibility for educating the public, but I guess they are part of the DEBT MACHINE.
ReplyDeleteRitholz puts up a table showing the monthly declines in SPX for the last five months:
ReplyDeleteMay
-1.35%
June
-1.83%
July
-2.15%
August
-5.68%
September
-7.18%
October
?
Damn....the oil stocks I still hold have been worse than that.
RoBear - cnbc has had Stockman on several times (on the noon-time pgm) and every time he's on it seems to me that he really is a smart guy and sees the way it is and we're screwed. His comment in one appearance was
ReplyDelete'The US is NOT AAA – It's a border-line “Banana Republic”.' I don'y know, everyone is trying to sell a book, but ...
Stockman is alright in my book .... but my book is often wrong.
ReplyDeleteJuan Cole posted the following today and the last sentence really cracked me up so I thought I'd pass it on for at least a chuckle:
ReplyDelete"The al-Qaeda-linked magazine “Inspire” has reprimanded Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad for indulging in “stupid” “conspiracy theories” because of his stance, repeated at the recent United Nations meeting, that 9/11 was a Bush administration inside job.
When al-Qaeda accuses you of being a conspiracy theorist, you’re really a space cadet."
Down further in his blog there is an account of the Wall Street demonstrations (he was there) including a lot of pictures.
Looks like I missed another wild and crazy day. These end of month trading sessions have been brutal. I don't see any positive charts heading into Monday. PC ratio must be pretty darn extreme by now though...
ReplyDeleteIn the '87 crash, although the VIX didn't exist, you could back-calculate it to be about 140% and people think VIX 40 is high.
ReplyDeleteLoved the Stockman piece!!
ReplyDeleteRB- What do you mean by 140% ?
The Fly Quotes He was bullish up to a couple of weeks ago.
ReplyDeletehttp://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2011/09/30/something-smells-in-china/
"oh, what do we make of this? Do not look to America for guidance, as this country is filled with fucking idiots who would buy stocks on the day of a nuclear detonation over Los Angeles. If China is slowing significantly, there are zero chances for us to rally. Actually, it’s quite laughable that people are buying stocks today, with all of these potential headwinds.
With a Chinese slowdown, our S&P 500 will need to rely on domestic sales: ROFL. One could paint an argument for S&P falling to 600 under those circumstances, as EPS cuts will be far more insidious than any fucktard analyst is factoring in.
I mean VIX would be 140 Sorry.
ReplyDeleteWith all the doom and gloom quotes let me beat 2nd to the punch and say I think we go much higher on monday. 300 pt dow day.
ReplyDeleteRemember, most of these gloom and doom reports are from blogs, not the mainstream media. Who do you trust? I don't trust either even 90% but I trust MST much less than other sources.
ReplyDeleteMST=MSM (Media)
ReplyDeleteIllini-
ReplyDeleteMST=MSM=S&M...Is there something your hiding?
-5 straight red months
ReplyDelete-100 day put call ratio now above anything seen during 2008/09.
-NAAIM shows active money managers are LESS than 5% invested!
-"The S&P has now suffered five straight down months. That's happened 18 times in the history of the S&P. It has happened 3 times with September as the fifth month (1966, 1974 and 1981). October was +4.8%, +16.3% and +4.9%.
-The only fly in the ointment is smart money bullish % is stuck at 54%. They were at 80% at the bottom at SPX 1100.
-We start to rally hard next month. The only question is when and from where.
If we get a monthly gap lower (Monday gap down), I will get as bullish as I was in the Spring of '09 when we had a big monthly gap down. A gap down and a fill 1-2 weeks later would be ideal. All fantasy until it actually happens...
ReplyDeleteMuch fishiness w/ TZOO. The "trackers" are projecting a record month of local deals and a huge start to q4.
ReplyDeleteYet, 80-95% (depending on your source) of the float is short.
The short money is always the smart money. I just can't figure out why. I'm thinking major cannibalization in their traditional biz (hence jumping the shark w/ tv commercials) or perhaps their cut of local deals has decreased.
W/ local deal revenue being as transparent as it is, I'm assuming lots of investors will load the boat before earnings expecting a significant beat. Unfortunately, Wall St. isn't that easy. Its going to be a very interesting conference call in a few weeks especially since the last one was so entertaining from my perspective.
Sentiment indicates we should see a bounce here soon. However, I'm not seeing anything in the charts that would indicate an imminent bounce.
ReplyDeleteIn fact, the S+P looks to be breaking down out of yet another head and shoulders pattern:(
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=21&i=p22995611439&a=242487966&r=674
Looks like the china mfg numbers came in better than expected:
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/China-manufacturing-gains-in-apf-1139008311.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=
Maybe my tiny position in FXI calls will do well.
Boy that $39ish level on CSTR sure looks like a great area of support:
ReplyDeletehttp://chart.ly/ok2b6nw
I wonder if all of this volatile trading is just noise before they report stellar earnings this month and in January.
China - We can certainly use a bit of good news! ;)
ReplyDeleteThere's no such thing as a triple bottom, right?
"I have heard that there is an old Wall Street adage that says that “there ain’t no such thing as a triple bottom.”
I have not been able to confirm the existence of that epigram. What I can confirm is that classical technical analysis teaches that the more times a support level is tested the weaker it becomes. This is quite commonsensical.
Well, by my count, the market (^SPX, ^DJIA, ^IXIC, ^NDX) looks to be headed toward a seventh test of a bottom first established on August 9.
Will this test be any different from the rest? Here are a few things that have got me wondering:"
http://seekingalpha.com/article/296761-will-the-seventh-test-bust-support-on-the-s-p-500
Silver/gold - This article includes an historical account of short positions all the way back to 2007:
ReplyDeleteFriday, September 30, 2011
"Stunning Plunge in COMEX Commercial Silver Net Short Positions"
http://www.gotgoldreport.com/2011/09/stunning-plunge-in-comex-commercial-silver-net-short-positions.html
new post
ReplyDeleteUS Distillate imports report:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-29/u-s-distillate-imports-by-company-for-july-table-.html?cmpid=yhoo