Monday, October 3, 2011
10/03/11 Building Stamina: Isotonic v Isometric Contractions
Any sports authority (not necessarily the guys running around the local Sports Authority) will tell you that isotonic contractions are more effective at building stamina.
Weathering the daily isotonic price movements in a buy-and-hold portfolio also builds stamina- the kind that keeps you from selling early, the kind that maximizes long-term gains. (Cash would be an example of an isometric portfolio.) It's easy to hold when the indexes sell off- it's much harder to hold when indexes hit resistance levels on the way up. The recent volatility has taken the endurance challenge up a few notches and allowed us all to stretch our psyches. Enjoy the workout, bros.
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Kyle,
ReplyDeleteI hope it does not turn out that way. The news really isn't that bad so far and I am quite confident Q3 earnings will be very good - my thought is the market recognizes this and figures out stocks are undervalued and buys, but I am worried it could be like the Q2 earnings season where exceptional news drove the reporting stock up, but average or poor news tanked the stock and no news was hurt by the macro environment.
BB - I'm beginning to agree more and more with the bullish side of things. I think too many people are fighting the old war: that of 2008. Perfect example is what Kyle was saying he heard from someone on CNBC. That crowd is really fearful of the same thing happening; a potential job risking crash. It's that same preparedness for a repeat that will prevent a repeat.
ReplyDeleteWill it be a whoosh down? I highly doubt it. Rather I see this current move down as the bottom...and then we will see a series of slightly higher lows probably until year end. Then in Q1 2012 we get a really solid rally to new highs. What provokes it? Well, earnings of course. This quarter will be good...then renewed European fears will keep the markets in check. Then we rally through 1,250 and get confirmation via strong earnings in January which rockets us to new highs in February.
Feel free to mark this post so I can eat my words.
Why is everyone focused on the negative? Sure, it's human nature to focus on downside targets when the market sells off.
ReplyDeleteRemember 1987? That sell-off definitively caused many investors to capitulate, some for life. Then the indexes resumed their climb to levels that drove stakes through the hearts of those who capitulated.
I'm not saying we repeat 1999. I'm saying we may well exceed 1999.
BB - Grasso made the comment a few days ago to the effect that 'if the market isn't behaving the way you expect then that means it is anticipating some news that is still out there and has yet to be fully priced in. It's moving in reaction to something you don't know about yet.' Good Q3 earnings may help it find a stable support level, but I believe this grid-lock thing lasting for months to come is a significant part of it.
ReplyDeletetof- You can use my post to wash it all down.
ReplyDeleteMaybe Kyle, but sometimes it is just emotion and momentum driving the market rather than logical news.
ReplyDeleteHere's are interesting look from thestreet.com on Buffet. A lot of people pick at Buffet, but for a guy who said there wasn't much to buy for 10 years starting to 1998, his purchased in fall 2008 were pretty darn good:
While many economists suggest that the likelihood of a double-dip recession is elevated, Buffett thinks otherwise. He says that he looks at data from 70-plus businesses in Berkshire Hathaway's (BRK.B) universe and all of them are slowly coming back (except for those related to construction, which still scrapes the bottom).
Buffett is acting on his optimism. In the third quarter, Berkshire spent some $4 billion buying stocks, up from $3.4 billion spent in the second quarter. Those third-quarter purchases were the most Berkshire spent for equities since the $3.6 billion in purchases it made during the third quarter of 2008.
Perceptive investors will note the dates above: Buffett does not time markets and never has; instead, he values businesses relative to their future intrinsic values. Berkshire's purchases in the third quarter of 2008 came, on average, six months before the markets hit bottom and turned higher. Later in October 2008, Buffett penned an op-ed piece in The New York Times, essentially telling readers that he was buying U.S. equities. The markets nose-dived for the next five months, and Buffett was criticized for his ill-timed suggestion. Then the markets rallied nearly 100%.
I really believe part of the problem lies in the short attention spans of investors today.
ReplyDelete"The market is anticipating further bad news (probably Europe and year-long grid-lock before the election)."
ReplyDeleteSometimes these things are self-perpetuating, surprising all participants.
FCX - Back in 2008, FCX was shuttering their mines and laying off as gold:copper slid into the 400-500 lbs/oz level, now it's 542lbs/oz.
Good time to hit home depot and snap up an truck load of copper pipe?
BEXP - Lower now than I'd envisioned, can only guess it's because we're testing the limits.
"You go first."
Buffett is a great example- how quickly Buffett's style became characterized as 'outdated' in 1999, only to regain 'brilliant' status in 2007?
ReplyDeleteIt's also easy to sound like an idiot when defending a buy-and-hold strategy on a daily basis. What I really should do is post once a quarter.
ReplyDeleteThe cost to protect the debt of Morgan Stanley (MS) and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) surged to the highest levels since the weeks after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s bankruptcy as concern intensified that Europe’s debt crisis will infect the global banking system.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-03/u-s-company-credit-risk-gauge-rises-to-highest-since-may-2009.html
“It’s such a difficult situation for the markets here,” Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo- Mitsubishi UFJ in New York, said in a telephone interview. “People are primed for bad news. They’re quick to
I wouldn't be surprised if 97% of the people "in the market" buy and sell more times in one year than the remaining 3% do over their lifetime.
ReplyDeleteIn 20 years I believe buy and hold will indeed be looked at in another light.
"The cost to protect the debt of Morgan Stanley (MS) and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) surged to the highest levels since the weeks after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s bankruptcy as concern intensified that Europe’s debt crisis will infect the global banking system."
ReplyDeleteMark - having a front row seat at the CDS nonsense (my clients are all hedge funds and about half of them trade the CDS market), I know fully well how absurdly manipulated this market is. The market needs to be abolished. I wrote several congressmen, the SEC, and the president about it in 2008 because of what I saw. The only response I got back was a system generated response from the SEC. What I saw was one of my largest clients had two funds: a fixed income fund and an equity fund. The fixed income fund was buying the shit out of the CDSs of several companies while the equity fund was shorting its stock. They knew that they could game the ratings agencies by blowing out the spreads of the CDSs, who would then downgrade the credit ratings of the companies and cause their stocks to plummet. It was a freaking disgrace and it still gets me fired up to see that the CDS market is alive and well.
You've probably seen this, but as a new buy and hold investor, perhaps you missed it.
ReplyDeleteWhitney Tilson (famous value investor) put together a list of what he calls Warren Buffets only 4 market calls (Bullish in 1974, 1979, and 2008; Bearish in 1999)
http://www.tilsonfunds.com/4BuffettMarketCalls.pdf
Copper - ADX +DI back under 10, MACD/ADX pinch is approaching extreme levels. Volume has been running high as well, capitulation must be approaching...?
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$copper&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p99295968853&a=217994610&r=7 736
I suppose it could fall further, anything's possible.
Reminds me of a statistic one Traffic School instructor confronted the class with-
ReplyDelete'How many moving violations do you think the average driver in Michigan has on his record?'
The correct answer is none.
If I pick a random colleague at work and ask her how many stock trades she's made in her lifetime, I think the correct answer (a shock to those of us who have racked up thousands) would be none.
ReplyDelete97% of people on DT trade more in on month than the avg person trades in a lifetime.
ReplyDelete97% of DTers have more drinks in one year than the avg person drinks in a lifetime.
two indisputable facts
NBG - Wow, dropped 23% today...
ReplyDeleteFirst EK and now AMR flirting with bankruptcy. Two of the (formerly) best companies in breed. What is USA coming to?
ReplyDeleteCP - Yea, your'e spot on about NLY and the spread. Operation Twist could suck their breath of life right out(the big dividend). If successful. I understand there is a substantial chance OT won't even work.
ReplyDelete'97% of DTers have more drinks in one year than the avg person drinks in a lifetime.'
ReplyDeleteI'd only debate the one year part might be a little long.
Yes, I also understand how manipulated the CDS are.
Great insight though.
'First EK and now AMR flirting with bankruptcy. Two of the (formerly) best companies in breed. What is USA coming to?'
ReplyDeleteDigital cameras and transporters?
Just goes to show you : Every company has a life cycle. Wonder who was biggest in buggy whips? Surely not Chicago Rawhide because they are still with us (I think).
ReplyDeleteOh wait: "Seventeen years have passed since SKF acquired Chicago Rawhide. Since 1990 we have continued operations under variations of the SKF, CR and Chicago ..."
ReplyDeletewww.skfextranet.com/
Man, I was out of touch in the engineering field even before I retired in '95.
ReplyDeleteDT - Best Bourbon Whiskey: "Rebel Yell". Also the cheapest of the best.
ReplyDeletehttp://whiskey.findthebest.com/saved_search/Best-Bourbon-Whiskey
Just in case you are wondering about Chicago Rawhide:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.daltonbearing.com/suppliers/chicago-rawhide.aspx Est 1878.
Want to know about Chicago Bridge and Iron?
You crack me up Illini! Where you been, college football? :)
ReplyDeleteGMO...
ReplyDeleteHanlong on the move again in Africa...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-03/china-s-hanlong-agrees-to-pay-1-3-billion-for-rest-of-sundance-resources.html
I am always with the "Fighting Illini" and the Big Ten. Now it should be called the Big Twelve since Nebraska joined and also Penn State a few years ago (I don't really get that but the real Big Twelve Conference is disintegrating with the big powers seeking better homes ( Nebraska! Oklahoma?). It's all TV $. And a chess game.
ReplyDeletePositive, here is something kind of positive.
ReplyDeleteSTOCKS CLOSED SEPTEMBER
RATHER OMINOUSLY, and we fear the
beginning of October for October has proved to be at
times even more serious… even more ugly… even more
loss-creating than has September. However… and this is
important… October has also proven many times to be
the end point of sharp downward movements in equities,
but not until severe pain has been inflicted upon those
who are bullish at the month’s outset.
The Stock Trader’s Almanac… a copy of which should sit
on every serious trader’s/investor’s desk and re-read with
a sense of consistency several times a year… notes that
October is indeed a “bear killer” month, having turned the
markets higher from bear market lows in ’46, ’57, ’60, ’62,
’66, ’74, ’87, ’90, ’98, ’01 and ’02. We shall try very, very
hard to believe/hope/expect this same to take place this
October, but almost certainly it shall not take place until
much later in the month and by then the stock market
may well have undergone a truly serious downward
collapse.
Our target on the S&P is and has been something on the
order of 960, and given the current environment we can
see that happening rather quickly. Remember, it took
only three weeks for the S&P to fall from 1350 to 1100 in
July through early August. It may take only the same
period of time to drive it from the mid-point on the chart
consolidation at or near 1150 to 960, and could easily
happen in the first three weeks of this month. Then…
and we hope our clients are ready to remind us of this
statement… we hope to become manifestly,
aggressively, stunningly bullish of equities; however, until
then, we are sellers of rallies as we were last week:
per gartman ltr
Probably just in love from afar, but I'm enjoying Burnetts new show on CNN.
ReplyDeleteT3D...Still don't get the A comment?
Oh, sorry Mark, A was trading in a box price wise. The box was defined by 38 on the high and 31 on the low and we broke on through to the other side ( the trap door opened). Similar to the bear flags you referenced. As cited there are way to many of these patterns. Definitely negative in my book. I was trading this box, now all stop.
ReplyDeleteHope that helps bro.
Metals - Current estimated rate of production vs reserves:
ReplyDeletehttp://usdebtclock.org/gold-precious-metals.html
Uniquely Hawaiian, especially from 2:30 on.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V1bFr2SWP1I&feature=fvwp&NR=1
I'm looking at placing stink bids this morning, then going out to chop some firewood.
ReplyDeletePAL $1.01, any other good ideas?
Well I sold those FXI calls painfully this morning at a $1000 loss. I rolled the money into SPY $109 calls expiring Friday at $1.9 only because I think we see a bounce to the 1,120-1,130ish area this week. I figured since I'm just sitting in CSTR I might as well try to trade this market with a tiny amount just so I don't get bored to death.
ReplyDeleteBought some more SPY calls at $1.8...total at risk is a whopping $2k.
ReplyDelete1099.23 - That's a gap down on my chart...
ReplyDeleteCSTR - I guess it's not going to follow the market?
ReplyDeleteAnyone else lose their Yahoo Finance portfolio this morning?
ReplyDeleteLooks like they did an upgrade and the migration did not come forward.
Things felt a little panicky this morning.
ReplyDelete"CSTR - I guess it's not going to follow the market?"
ReplyDeleteWhy ya gotta jinx me?
" Things felt a little panicky this morning."
ReplyDeleteMark - I think odds are decent we see a big whoosh down intraday today with a near flat close.
AAPL - I hear you can actually make telephone calls with the new iphone...
ReplyDeleteTOF- Could be. I was damn close to getting in this morning.
ReplyDeleteCSTR - Good point, I shouldn'ta said that..., sorry. ;)
ReplyDeleteBut hey, maybe I can buy some...
Tried to re-add my stocks and got this message:
ReplyDeleteError - Portfolios Under Maintenance
Portfolios are currently under maintenance, sorry for the inconvenience. We are working on a solution and will be back shortly.
Nice going Yahoo - mess up one of your most valuable properties in the middle of the trading day - and you wonder why your stock doesn't go up.
No comment.
ReplyDeleteRUT green.
ReplyDelete2nd - A buy and hold DTer should have no comment. His comment comes in 2017 when the S&P is at 2,000
ReplyDeleteJust scrolling through Marketwatch and there is a lot of acquisitions being announced, especially on a Tuesday. Show how cheap companies have become.
ReplyDeleteGTU, threw in the towel, loss of 6.98%.
ReplyDelete2017, that's about when the next real long term bull market should so up give or take 18 months till then its trade or hold onto the rope.
Feels like we can lift here.
should show up
ReplyDeleteOne thing I've learned if I'm interested in trading short term swings:
ReplyDelete*The leading momo stocks were CLEARLY the tell. There were several breakdowns many months ago which preceded our markets cracking. Then after things appeared to stabilize, we saw another wave of breakdowns in those momo stocks (think NFLX, TZOO, OPEN, etc) which preceded the market taking another dive.
I know we all mentioned this but it's good in hindsight to see just how powerful of a tell that was.
All the value guys say the market is really cheap, and maybe it is. However if the "E" as in earnings goes away they are going to get a lot cheaper.
ReplyDeleteJust thinking out loud, pick your poison gents.
T3d - noting ur MDW is right at the 200dma
ReplyDeleteI would also add that there was broad distribution in the SPX, TOF. You have a sixth sense which seems to allow to find the needle in the hay stack that works or stays stable, I'm envious.
ReplyDeleteT3d - Sixth sense? Hardly my friend. It all comes down to FUNDAMENTALS, as crazy as it is to say in a technically driven market. CSTR's biz is not dependent upon a good economy and there are fundamental factors (Blockbuster closing / NFLX having major customer service issues / they're the cheapest option for customers / streaming (in my opinion is overhyped) why the company is growing stronger. You could have said the same for MITK as well, regarding fundamentals. Most traders ignore them but their time frame is too short
ReplyDeleteYes Kyle, it has been down 8 of 10 days, holding somewhat better than most. If it cracks 1.50 it could easily go to 1.00. I have a small position to keep me closely watching.
ReplyDeleteInterestingly on gold monthly low from AUG 1999 to high of AUG 2011, the period measures 144 months which is an important Gann measurement. Hmm.
If it were not for the debt situation of the world I would exit all gold positions. Still we may have formed a very important top.
Risk is too 1300-1350 range sorry to say which would drive a dagger through the heart of gold equities and the junior brethren.
I guess I should just go long TLT, yeah right.
BTW, Jeff Gundlach thinks that Nat Gas is where gold was 20 years ago.
ReplyDeleteOn the flip side my friend knows a family who owns a utility in TX and they have capped enough NG to run the whole city for 10 years.
Yeah TOF Mamma said the harder i work the luckier I get or was that daddy.
Ok later gators.
Speaking of technicals...does the move down to 1,070 ES confirm a successful retest of the 1,077 ES intraday low from 2 months ago?
ReplyDeleteBB - I just tried "My Portfolios" on Yahoo and they are just fine. Yahoo asking for comments on the new pages: "Please provide your feedback on this page."
ReplyDeletetof - FWIW, I'm comparing the SPX structure now to what it was May-early Sept 2010 (w/ the flash spike down to 1065.79, and the Inv H&S? spikes down to 1040.78, 1010.91 & 1039.70). Whether this spike down to 1070'ish is the sharpest spike down is like who knows...
ReplyDeleteCopper - Still red, so I'm not buying what could be just a bounce.
ReplyDeletehey kyle - one thing i have noticed just in looking at the charts is that the market seems to like the W formation. it did the W last fall, again in the March and June bottoms, and perhaps it's doing it again here with the August and today's intraday bottom. i'm looking at the futures. i'm not sure if people have done studies on this but it's what i'm seeing.
ReplyDeleteYeah illini, it's fixed now.
ReplyDeleteThinking of stepping into DB here. They are at 4.5 next year's P/E and up on today's profit warning, so perhaps the selling is done.
Given how poor my timing was on NBG and LYG, I am not sure if I should wait. Think I'll just go take the dog for a walk and see if I still want to buy this by the time i get back.
tof - I agree, the 2002-2003 tech bubble bottom was like that too (775 July02 - 768 Oct02 - 788 Mar03). Guess it's just that basic wish to make sure a firm bottom is in-place before really loading the boat...
ReplyDeleteS&P 700? Come on and get there, so I can buy something!
ReplyDeleteI saw that I also lost my google/finance portfolio, but then I noticed that I got logged out of Google. When I logged back in, my portfolio came back.
ReplyDeleteBB -- if you also got signed out of Yahoo, then signing back in might help as well...
GDXJ is at $26 now, back to where it was before QE2 was announced, but the price of silver is where it was in late December, when GDXJ peaked at $44.
ReplyDeleteAUMN is also back to where it was before QE2, but the move is more extreme than for GDXJ: it went up 4 times and has now dropped 75% from its late December peak.
David- I was just looking at those. UXG/TRX/RBY...etc. What a dangerous play.
ReplyDeleteMDW has held up the best by far.
Careful guys...AAPL is tanking here.
UXG...What is BC saying about this one. Crikes!!
ReplyDeleteDEXB.BR - So I guess Dexia is another euro bank that's been liquidating to settle in $USD...
ReplyDeleteUXG - BC's "favorites", he claims, are SVM and UXG, LOL!
ReplyDeleteThese are both silver heavy, which from almost every perspective aside from China and perhaps India, industrial demand is probably not rising in today's environment.
I guess PM's could soon perform another waterfall hat trick if the economy keeps going the way of the dodo bird and the $USD becomes the winner it has been in everyone's mind for as long as most can remember, thanks to the likes of the CIA, etc.
MET...FP/E is 4.46
ReplyDeleteI'm thinking that a starting long term position in OPEN at these prices will work. I don't think OPEN's biz is reliant upon local deals like TZOO. Their reservation biz with local restaurants is a the perfect business model in my mind. Just about every restaurant I go to uses opentable.
ReplyDeletePM miners - The selling started, I think, when operation twist was rumored, and seemed to pick up when confirmed.
ReplyDeleteI guess short term inflation worries were addressed with OT, or was it the collapse of Europe?
ZINC - I'm surprised by the strength here, don't know what it's about.
TOF- GOOG also said they wanted keep OPEN's relationship with Zagat in tack.
ReplyDeleteMark - Really? Yeah I don't see the Zagat thing being a big issue for OPEN. I think $35 to $40 works for a long term buy.
ReplyDeleteTLT - Well, maybe it can reach $124, after all?
ReplyDeleteTOF- Yep. That blond chick that does all their press was interviewed and asked about OPEN yesterday.
ReplyDeleteoh gotcha.
ReplyDeleteby the way, i find it hard to believe traders would be bearish at this point. check out the crashes in stocks like POT, MOS, CAT, AGU, DE, etc. I think the odds of us not seeing any bounce in those stocks is about as remote as it gets. if they bounce the market will bounce.
My portfolio is undergoing a total destruction, very much like in the Fall of 2008. I am down around 60% YTD. I just tried taking a loan against my 401K (I hoped I will be given a loan of 1/2 of my balance, like in 2008), but was told that the IRS rules allow the loan only in the amount of 1/2 of my balance MINUS the highest loan amount in the past 12 months. Since I haven't paid out my 2008 loan yet, I basically cannot take out any new loan now (1/2 of my current 401K balance minus the highest loan amount in 12 months = current loan amount).
ReplyDeleteSo I am definitely done with buying stuff for the next year, and I'll be in the damage control mode now.
It's great that my stamina was already built up (like 2nd_ave said) during 2008, so I am looking at this situation as a temporary hurdle that I have to pass through on the way to new portfolio highs. Assuming, of course, that I'll be able to pass through it in once piece. :)
TZA - So why the hell is this thing well into the red?
ReplyDeleteDB is acting well today, so I just sold my 3 DB puts at $7.20 which I purchased at $6.87. At least I didn't lose any money on them. :)
ReplyDeleteTVIX - This thing's red as well...
ReplyDeleteBecause TNA (~ NASDAQ) is positive
ReplyDeleteDB is up 1.15% now...
ReplyDeleteDavid - hang in there brother...perhaps it's best that you can't leverage up as we don't know for sure where the bottom is.
ReplyDeleteMy suspicion is we run to the 1,136 area in the next day or two.
I'm setting my sell limit at $4.4 for the $2k in SPY $109 Calls expiring this Friday that I bought this morning at $1.85 avg. Hopefully they will get sold at the open tomorrow
ReplyDeleteNow I have a comment. Un----ingbelievable.
ReplyDeleteCongrats to tof on the SPY calls.
Actually, it's entirely believable. But you know what I mean.
ReplyDelete2nd - UFB indeed...there was that news that Dexia was setting up a 'bad' bank and the French were back-stopping it. Wonder if that's what turned it???
ReplyDelete2nd - I say its un----ingbelievable that people got caught up in the fear and sold them down as far as they did, but that's just me.
ReplyDeletejeez my limit might get hit today
ReplyDeleteIt has to be HFT. No human trades that fast.
ReplyDeletewow. my position in CSTR is now "only" down 5% from my cost basis. if i didn't move to buy and hold on this position i would probably have gotten happy to just close out the position.
ReplyDeletecan you say false breakdown?
ReplyDelete2nd - this was shorts running for cover.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38451750
ReplyDeleteThe sovereign CDS spreads are still at the top end of their recent range, but they haven't really broken higher which is a decent sign. It's kinda like a positive divergence is what I think they call it. I'd just rather call it a non negative development.
just saw that the NYHL hit the lowest levels since Dec 08 at -1400 earlier today. crazy.
ReplyDeleteHopefully the EOD rally wasn't based on some false news flash.
ReplyDeleteI turned away from the market in disgust after I closed my last hedge in the form of DB puts, and now I see that I really lucked out with timing that move, since DB finished the day up 5%!
ReplyDeleteEven my favorite dog AUMN had an unbelievable EOD spike. This is a 100% positive correlation between two stocks that are supposed to be negatively correlated!
TOD -- congrats on your S&P calls!
ReplyDeleteAfter this EOD rally that finished with S&P at 1123, your scenario of a quick breakdown below 1100 on S&P to run stops, followed by a major rally is looking very plausible.
"David - hang in there brother...perhaps it's best that you can't leverage up as we don't know for sure where the bottom is."
ReplyDeleteThanks, TOF. Unfortunately, I have already leveraged myself (way too soon, as usual), and that's why I am getting margin calls. I thought that I will be able to cover my margin with a 401K loan in the event of a total market collapse, but now I found out that I cannot take out such a loan. So now only a market reversal will save my ass. :)
Copper - Not too bad maybe, considering they had a 15% margin increase and GS cut their price target:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.moneycontrol.com/news/commodities/copper-close-to-14-month-low-as-greece-margin-hike-weigh_593839.html
TZA - I had placed a bid at $51.36 but canceled it thinking I wasn't going to see that price again today. Wow, glad I canceled now, it was flipping red too much then they got totally waxed in just 45 minutes.
ReplyDeleteDavid - Well here's to the market ripping higher here! I think we can get to 1,140 this week...
ReplyDeleteI'm personally really looking forward to CSTR's earnings at the end of the month, but equally as much I'm looking forward to the NFLX earnings 2 days before then. I think people will begin to realize that streaming ain't picking up nearly as much as people thought. In my opinion, lots of those "subscribers" were really just DVD mail subs that were getting the streaming option thrown in for free. I bet a good chunk of those people cancel because they don't even use streaming. That will really throw people for a loop and possibly even big up more than 9 times FCF for CSTR, which is absurd given its 30%+ growth rate.
I also think it's a little odd that Hulu, which is a really well known service and has been around for several years, only has 1 million paid subscribers and is looking to sell itself. Just strikes me as really odd they would do this if the streaming market was so hot.
TOF, I hope the NFLX/CSTR dynamics works out for you! Just like AUMN dynamics eventually works out for me. :)
ReplyDeleteDavid,
ReplyDeletea lot of the small cap miners got killed the last couple of months. When you have a weak market, the big boys with revenues and dividends take a good hit, but the small caps always get killed.
The real question here is what will happen to the precious metals over the next year. I could easily see us being in a period like 2008 where we chop around and drift down for the next 12 months or in 2006 when we went down and based for 12 months. That's the way this 11 year bull market seems to run. Up for a year or a bit more, consolidate for a year. 2011 should have been the consolidation year, but we didn't get it, so it may be this was the final run-up in the bull market and now we enter a bear or perhaps we are in a long consolidation period. I doubt immediately bounce back to new highs. There's been way too much bullishness in PM's and we need to clean things out some.
www.peterbrandt.com
ReplyDelete"Major changes took place today to the markets in which I have held positons.
Let’s take them one by one.
USDCAD met its target — actually exceeded its target. I am out. EURUSD entered the top end of the target range. I have reduced my position by 40%. The U.S. Dollar Index met its target. I am out.
Stocks today could have put in a short-term bottom, even an intermediate-term bottom. I covered two-thirds of my short position.
The stock market was easy up until yesterday. The H&S top was a lay up. It was predictable that the two-month trading range starting on August 9 would be resolved to the downside.
The time to be bold is when the markets are clear. The markets were clear to me. It was time to be bold — in trading and in the narrative of this blog.
I am no longer bold."
TTM - Seems to refuse to move down further.
ReplyDeleteC bitch slaps BAC's piddly $5/ month fee...
ReplyDelete'Starting in December, customers who hold its mid-level Citibank Account will be charged $20 a month if they fail to maintain a minimum balance of $15,000 in their combined accounts. Previously, account holders had to carry a minimum balance of $6,000.'
Beat that BAC!!!
CP - I love TTM man...their rev/earnings growth is a thing of beauty. I don't follow it closely enough to know if they have significant more upside from here but my guess is they do over the next decade.
ReplyDeleteMLAB > This is one of the 50 or so on my watch list and I have to say this is easily the strongest stock I have seen throughout this entire period. What a beast. Consistent rev/earnings growth and increasing dividend yield. It's very illiquid but its a company that seems to be firing on all cylinders.
The CAC looks like it's putting in an inverted head & shoulders pattern.
ReplyDeleteTake a look at the close for SODA. Really?
ReplyDeletewow that (SODA) definitely bankrupted some shorts out there...
ReplyDeletecheck out GLD...looks like a bear flag is being put in place.
UXG - I think if you see this one under $2.63 on no news, you've got a good entry.
ReplyDeleteMan, take a look at the initial reaction to APKT earnings AH. Holding through earnings in Q3 will be tough.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-05/with-high-speed-trading-market-cannot-hold-commentary-by-mark-buchanan.html
ReplyDeleteNEW POST!!!
ReplyDeleteTOF, pay attention!!!
AUMN - Mon 10/3 •Golden Minerals Announces Private Placement and Filing of Shelf Registration
ReplyDeleteWMS - Is this company any good, looks decent but the gaming industry doesn't excite me much....
ReplyDelete