Piper Jaffrey came out with a reiteration of CSTR as their top small cap pick and a $68 price target today. They basically said that their web traffic to redbox.com has spiked since the Netflix price hike and they believe they will benefit.
As for me, I have no trades to report yet because I got a margin call last week when the market was collapsing and so I wasn't able to add anything to my positions at the amazingly low prices we saw last week.
David - Yes I'm afraid of scaring luck away for sure!
By the way, I know people think the drop to 20% was just obligatory before the real drop, but in looking back over the past 20 years, there were two other obligatory drops in the market that preceded pretty strong rallies afterward: 1990 and 1998. Not saying that today's economy is the same as then but it's worth noting that both dropped pretty much exactly to 20% from high to low on a closing basis and then the selloff was over.
If you guys believe that the rally we are seeing is here to stay, then you might consider picking up some Chinese auto parts stocks that are bucking the trend this week: CAAS and SORL. They used to have a pretty good correlation with the Shanghai Composite and with the small caps ETF HAO, but this week that correlation is not working out. However, if HAO keeps going up, then CAAS and SORL *will* be pulled up by it.
Europe is the biggest customer of Chinese goods now, and so if investors indeed start believing that the European troubles are getting under control, then the fears of a hard landing in China should recede...
1074.77 - Is the lowest low so far, 1022.58 was the July 2010 low, so right now it seems the 2 year chart H&S neckline slope is positive.
Therefore, until we visit 1022.58 or lower(required for a negative slope neckline), I'm leaning towards an continuation H&S, similar to the one with a head in April of last year.
But we still have this week's gaps up that need to fill, attracting bears into the fold...
Had another buyout of one of my stocks announced this week - Daylight Energy (DAYYF) for Chinese Energy company Sinopec. That's #6 this year.
Really makes me think that companies are recognizing how cheap business's are and it easier to grow by acquisition.
Redeploying into a commercial steel fabrication company (CNMGA) that's been decimated as business is poor and they had to cut their dividend. Well run, good balance sheet, broad business with over 10,000 projects a year, plus the latest survey of architects indicated their business is picking up and this tends to lead construction.
Also bought a company which makes high end GPS for tractors (HEMGF). Well positioned in the ag space, had some inventory issues they've worked through and now seem to be back on track.
Also going to spend some time to look into hotels and hotel REIT's, maybe cruiselines. Nice numbers out of HST today, but stock is up 7%. Shows that travel is OK though and these stocks have been hammered as well.
Nice move in CSTR today TOF - looks like the analysts have been listening to you!
I like the recent change in my portfolio balance, and in order to hedge my recent gains I decided to start scaling into DB puts once again (I was lucky to close out my previous bunch of DB puts at a gain on the day this rally took off). So I just bought 1 January $45 put for $8.10. I heard that Greece will need to make a large bond payment in December, and so January is far out enough to allow Greece to default.
It is nice to buy and hold because it would be very difficult to try and have to figure out if this rebound is the one that actually breaks out of the last couple months trading range or if we are going to bounce back down again.
I'm starting to like this guy.
ReplyDeletehttp://peterlbrandt.com/stock-market-topped-on-tuesday/
What??...I should have picked Alison?
ReplyDeleteman, breaking bad is now my favorite show on TV
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/good-news-wall-streets-in-a-bad-mood-2011-10-12
ReplyDeleteB-b-b-b-bad to the bone.
ReplyDeletePiper Jaffrey came out with a reiteration of CSTR as their top small cap pick and a $68 price target today. They basically said that their web traffic to redbox.com has spiked since the Netflix price hike and they believe they will benefit.
ReplyDeleteLIZ. Little gap there.
ReplyDeleteEveryone asleep?
ReplyDeleteTOF, it looks like bulls are afraid to scare their luck away. :)
ReplyDeleteAs for me, I have no trades to report yet because I got a margin call last week when the market was collapsing and so I wasn't able to add anything to my positions at the amazingly low prices we saw last week.
ReplyDeleteDavid - Yes I'm afraid of scaring luck away for sure!
ReplyDeleteBy the way, I know people think the drop to 20% was just obligatory before the real drop, but in looking back over the past 20 years, there were two other obligatory drops in the market that preceded pretty strong rallies afterward: 1990 and 1998. Not saying that today's economy is the same as then but it's worth noting that both dropped pretty much exactly to 20% from high to low on a closing basis and then the selloff was over.
If you guys believe that the rally we are seeing is here to stay, then you might consider picking up some Chinese auto parts stocks that are bucking the trend this week: CAAS and SORL. They used to have a pretty good correlation with the Shanghai Composite and with the small caps ETF HAO, but this week that correlation is not working out. However, if HAO keeps going up, then CAAS and SORL *will* be pulled up by it.
ReplyDeleteEurope is the biggest customer of Chinese goods now, and so if investors indeed start believing that the European troubles are getting under control, then the fears of a hard landing in China should recede...
Does anyone see an open gap down in the S&P on July 27th, at 1333ish?
ReplyDeleteMy chart doesn't show this gap very well, but I think there might be one there?
cp - Didn't do a screen-capture on SPX for that week, but here is one for SSO. Looks like a gap...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.screencast.com/t/Rl769QhdCCf
This rally is taking no prisoners. It's almost enough to make want to stop at a CSTR kiosk and pay 8% to cash out a jar of change.
ReplyDeleteWell, we've got two gaps up this week that need filling, it looks to me, and I definitely see a gap down in SPY from 1333 on July 27th.
ReplyDeleteSo which gaps fill first? This sure looks like a good area to short S&P, in anticipation of this week's gaps being filled...
Then again, I'd love to ride a rally to 1333, but relative strength seems too high for something like that in the near future...
2nd - Don't do it man!!! It's time to stop by the bar instead...One Bourbon, One Scotch, One Beer...
ReplyDelete1074.77 - Is the lowest low so far, 1022.58 was the July 2010 low, so right now it seems the 2 year chart H&S neckline slope is positive.
ReplyDeleteTherefore, until we visit 1022.58 or lower(required for a negative slope neckline), I'm leaning towards an continuation H&S, similar to the one with a head in April of last year.
But we still have this week's gaps up that need to fill, attracting bears into the fold...
1333 - 'Playoffs, Did YOU Say Playoffs, Who Said Anything About Playoffs???'
ReplyDeleteWowza!
ReplyDelete1000 SDS @ 21.77 play off AAPL.
ReplyDelete1000 more @ 21.64
ReplyDeleteAll off 21.79.
ReplyDeleteMark -- you are becoming an expert surgeon with you scalping!
ReplyDeleteAAPL.
ReplyDeleteHad another buyout of one of my stocks announced this week - Daylight Energy (DAYYF) for Chinese Energy company Sinopec. That's #6 this year.
ReplyDeleteReally makes me think that companies are recognizing how cheap business's are and it easier to grow by acquisition.
Redeploying into a commercial steel fabrication company (CNMGA) that's been decimated as business is poor and they had to cut their dividend. Well run, good balance sheet, broad business with over 10,000 projects a year, plus the latest survey of architects indicated their business is picking up and this tends to lead construction.
Also bought a company which makes high end GPS for tractors (HEMGF). Well positioned in the ag space, had some inventory issues they've worked through and now seem to be back on track.
Also going to spend some time to look into hotels and hotel REIT's, maybe cruiselines. Nice numbers out of HST today, but stock is up 7%. Shows that travel is OK though and these stocks have been hammered as well.
Nice move in CSTR today TOF - looks like the analysts have been listening to you!
David- Tough way to make a buck though. Watch AAPL.
ReplyDeleteI like the recent change in my portfolio balance, and in order to hedge my recent gains I decided to start scaling into DB puts once again (I was lucky to close out my previous bunch of DB puts at a gain on the day this rally took off). So I just bought 1 January $45 put for $8.10. I heard that Greece will need to make a large bond payment in December, and so January is far out enough to allow Greece to default.
ReplyDeleteGod I'm such a wuss. AAPL is breaking it's little flag here, of course, and I bailed early.
ReplyDeleteHave we just seen yet another rejection off the 1220 level on S&P?
ReplyDeleteSD is another one I follow daily. It tends to lead energy on a daily basis.
ReplyDeleteIs that a fresh artery on Maria's neck?
ReplyDeleteIt's a tough day to make a buck only if you're trading. If you're holding, all it takes is another cup of coffee.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_1D5Zm6iEog&feature=related
ReplyDeleteLOL, the Greek debt crisis has been covered in the news since Dec. 9, 2009..
ReplyDeleteIt is nice to buy and hold because it would be very difficult to try and have to figure out if this rebound is the one that actually breaks out of the last couple months trading range or if we are going to bounce back down again.
ReplyDeleteCopper vs gold correlation trajectory:
ReplyDeletehttp://3.bp.blogspot.com/-tzkojNeZ584/TpWrjxEE8VI/AAAAAAAAEGQ/NbmxuVlnrN0/s1600/Au%2B-%2BCu%2Brho%2B%252810-12-2012%2529%2B660W.jpg
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ReplyDelete