FCX- Just for the hell of it, I sold the shares I purchased @ 31.49 on September 23 for 37.04 this morning. That's a 17.6% gain. Now I have some play money.
I've seen them out at Soco They're pounding sixteen penny nails The truckers on the interstate Have been known to ride the rails The sweat is beating on the brow Can't keep these fellas down 'Cause those damned blue-collared tweekers Are runnin' this here town.
I knew a man who hung drywall He hung it mighty quick A trip or two to the blue room Would help him do the trick His foreman would pat him on the back Whenever he would come around 'Cause these dammed blue-collar tweekers Are beloved in this here town
Now the union boys are there To protect us from all the corporate type While curious George's drug patrol Is out here hunting snipe Now they try to tell me different But you know I ain't no clown 'Cause those damned blue collar tweekers Are the backbone of this town
Now the flame that burns twice as bright Burns only half as long My eyes are growing weary As I finalize this song So sit back and have a cup of joe And watch the wheels go round 'Cause those damned blue collar tweekers Have always run this town!
haha...thanks guys but it's just one of those runs. i'm hoping i'm smart enough to cash out before the going gets tough.
Mark - you got balls of steel on that trade man. No way in hell I would short C. In fact, I am seriously thinking about whether or not a combo of C + BAC + WFC would outperform CSTR at this point over the next few years. I know the banks are where portfolios go to die but in the past 3 bull markets that I have looked at, the leaders of that bull market got trashed, bounced hard, then got trashed again...and it was at that point that they became great buys again. Not saying it will happen but it's definitely a thing to consider.
back to the topic of W's...CSTR is sure as hell looking to be finishing up it's W pattern. if so that would bring it to about $60. As crazy as it sounds given that it would be a 50% move from last weeks lows, $60 is in my mind still cheap. I'm thinking they could very well do over $1/share EPS this quarter and even higher next quarter. If that's the case then at $60 it would be trading at maybe 13 or 14 times it's annual EPS run rate. A company growing 25%+ annually typically trades for at least 20 times.
it's amazing how many times i misspell its. it's one of those things that i always messed up. when i was younger i used to have the hardest time with separate...i used to have to say to myself "par" just to make sure i didn't spell it with a per. anyone else have stupid things like that that your brain would crap out on?
TOF- No really. Over 2 years I would probably agree with you. This will be over Monday morning, or a stop will be in place to protect gains. FWIW, at one point I was up almost $500 and tried to close it, but it moved away too fast so I added into the spike at the close.
Yay! I just received another promotional check from a Citi credit card with a maximum amount of $15000 with a 0% APR until April 2013. With this check, in addition to another one I lined up for $5K from a Chase card, I'll be able to pay out my margin balance at ETrade and Scottrade, and will thus be able to relax and just wait for one year for my portfolio to rise. Unless, of course, my holdings drop to new lows and I won't be able to resist the desire to add to my positions at those prices...
Here is an interesting excerpt from an interview with some asset managers (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/casey-research-summit-special-report-surviving-death-money):
"In my experience, my biggest gains have been buying big positions in companies where I believed in management and the projects, and bought more when the stock was down, and held the stock for more than a few years."
I've done that with ECU/AUMN. Now let's see if this formula will work out for me as well...
"In today's volatile market, you are competing against manic-depressive traders who show up one day wanting to pay more than what you have is worth and the next day willing to sell for less than their assets are worth. In a devotion to net-nets, one of the best indicators of when you ought to be all-in is when it is full of people so disgusted in the market they are selling for less than they are worth. It's a great time to be an investor."
alright bro...well, good luck with the C short man. i suspect JPM pulled things down enough in terms of expectations, but C from what i remember has been doing better than the other banks recently in earnings.
Guys, I spent most of the day fighting it out w/ Vad on HFT. Would one of you mind looking at Vad's comments on #97727...they look like total mesh to me, but maybe it's the drinks.
Speaking of HFT, one must wonder why it's so important to have your server so close to the exchange and is there's any relationship to investing or just more skimming off investors?
If I were an investor, I would gladly pay a small fee to keep HFT from scalping value from the market.
Anyway, are Dark Pools layered on top of/dependent on HFT? This firm is publicly listed, and looks like a money loser, so maybe there just no real profit in it?
Kyle - It's possible Vad doesn't really understand the inner workings of HFT, he just wants to ensure he doesn't have to pay any additional fees for scalping?
I bet there's a way to stop the nonsense that goes on in the market but if it was stopped and GS/etc were forced to trade in a free market, and even though they have huge research staff and economics experts, their profits would probably implode without their HFT "tools".
Call me old-fashioned, but I bet the markets were functioning pretty well before the advent of HFT.
Thanks guys, I'll try to read what Vad wrote again today. It appears to me that these folks at nanex are in these networks/algorithms day-in and out w/ the ability to see ms by ms WTF is going on. So when someone comes along and says that they don't know what they're talking about it just...well I just can't quite process that.
cp - They interviewed Dick Grasso several times around Sept. 11 and he said that their (the exchanges) really big mistake was going down to the penny (or sub-penny) and that stopping at say 5 cents would have eliminated this high volume / sub-penny algorithm shoot-out that's occurring. Also, that it's 'false liquidity' in that anytime these algorithms sense that something crazy is happening, these algorithms switch off and then the bid/ask spread blows out.
"anytime these algorithms sense that something crazy is happening, these algorithms switch off and then the bid/ask spread blows out."
That makes perfect sense to me, I think the algos could be designed to run the prices up and down on their own, as well. Humans aren't trading all the time, it's probably unrealistic to think trades should be realtime, just think how many times that would mean your inventory would have to turn over in a real business?
If Algo's weren't so highly profitable, I doubt so much money would be spent on implementation. I can easily see the profit motivation for algos, but I'm having trouble finding the real benefit?
Sometimes when price action seems strange, I think about throwing a bid in there just to unfreeze the trading bots, LOL!
cp - Thanks for the links above. Based on the hftreview article you linked, it looks like things are heating up. Hope they do something reasonable and not something that makes it worse.
"The search for a quick profit has seen high frequency trading spread to bond, currency and commodity markets. On 3 February 2010 traders [at] Infinitum switched on a new oil markets HFT algorithm for just five seconds. In that time they lost more than $1 million and rocked the global oil price which spiked before losing 5 per cent of its value.”
Kyle - this whole HFT thing is really going to blow up. Regulators have NO CLUE what is actually going on in the markets, hell I don't think many participants do, including the HFT guys. They will keep stressing the system until we get a LTCM type event then it's going to be "uh oh, we didn't know that could happen"
JB - Agree with you completely. You know, there was something 'shark' wrote back in early '09 that I've thought about probably a zillion times since then...
Re: Tar Pit Submitted by shark_attack (1452 comments) on Tue, 02/17/2009 - 11:39 #12124 (in reply to #12121) Rob, You've touched upon one of my favorite topics. I call the previous 20 year period "The Great Retirement Scam", A period in which Johnny lunch-pail was turned into Johnny 401-k for the benefit of Wall Street and no one else. You know how markets work, right? Do you really think that when all the baby boomers retire/get fired all at once and try to cash in those dubious financial instruments, do you really really think they're all gonna retire rich like Wall Street said they would? Is that how markets work? Of course it isn't. Those people are going to be screwdoodled of course, that's what the market does to most ordinary folks. It's SUPPOSED to.
- Hope shark is doing OK and it might not be too long before his prediction comes true.
Gutsy trade with all sorts of possible weekend macro news (good and bad) and earnings.
I also think C will be a good long term buy at some point. The problem right now with stocks like C and JPM and especially BAC now are they keep getting hit with regulations / lawsuits, etc. that hit the stock (whether they should or not).
sold my 40 spy calls today at 1.26..for a 300% gain!
ReplyDeleteNot bad, tof.
ReplyDeleteI can't remember- when did you open the calls?
ReplyDeleteFCX- Just for the hell of it, I sold the shares I purchased @ 31.49 on September 23 for 37.04 this morning. That's a 17.6% gain. Now I have some play money.
ReplyDelete2nd - opened them yesterday...
ReplyDeleteCongrats. If I had any Bailey's, I'd pour a shot glass into my coffee and raise a toast.
ReplyDelete2nd - A gap that doesn't need filling is my favorite kind of gap, this is a pleasant surprise.
ReplyDeleteOkay, so now we're well past the 50 SMA, so that at least should provide some support should sellers attempt their funny business.
Sure beats moving in the wrong direction! ;)
thanks bro! now i'm trying to figure out what the game plan should be with CSTR
ReplyDeleteGap - I take that back, this morning's gap does need to fill.
ReplyDeleteS&P 50SMA - Looks like we may have jumped over the 50 SMA as well, so there's another open gap that needs filling just a hair under the 50 SMA.
ReplyDeleteI expect we're heading down to fill that gap and a successful retest of the 50 SMA, but I'm not putting money on it even though I'm quite certain.
TOF -- congratulations with CSTR! Everything you touch turns to gold -- I am proud to be on the same blog with you!
ReplyDeleteTOF is tt's secret weapon. ;)
ReplyDeleteI'm sure I'm the only one thinking of shorting C before earnings Monday, right?
ReplyDeleteIt's a nice early fall day here, the hickory trees have turned a bright yellow, maples a bright red, and the deer are scarfing down apples.
ReplyDeleteMark - Actually, I was thinking of picking up some SDS with an expectation of those SPY gaps closing on a brief retest of the 50 SMA.
ReplyDeleteMaybe that coincides with your C short, an event that kicks the knees from under the market for a temporary disappointment?
Unfortunately my account still is a cash account and thus shorting individual equities isn't an option. ;)
BAC - Kinda looks like this one's near the end of it's rope, doesn't it?
ReplyDeleteShort 1000 C @ 27.99
ReplyDeleteCP- Kinda. I expect a huge miss Monday for C.
ReplyDeleteMan, they're jamming AAPL here.
ReplyDeleteAdding 1000 short here @ 28.20
ReplyDeleteAdding 1000 short here @ 28.38
ReplyDeleteThose Damn Blue Collar Tweekers
ReplyDeleteI've seen them out at Soco
They're pounding sixteen penny nails
The truckers on the interstate
Have been known to ride the rails
The sweat is beating on the brow
Can't keep these fellas down
'Cause those damned blue-collared tweekers
Are runnin' this here town.
I knew a man who hung drywall
He hung it mighty quick
A trip or two to the blue room
Would help him do the trick
His foreman would pat him on the back
Whenever he would come around
'Cause these dammed blue-collar tweekers
Are beloved in this here town
Now the union boys are there
To protect us from all the corporate type
While curious George's drug patrol
Is out here hunting snipe
Now they try to tell me different
But you know I ain't no clown
'Cause those damned blue collar tweekers
Are the backbone of this town
Now the flame that burns twice as bright
Burns only half as long
My eyes are growing weary
As I finalize this song
So sit back and have a cup of joe
And watch the wheels go round
'Cause those damned blue collar tweekers
Have always run this town!
haha...thanks guys but it's just one of those runs. i'm hoping i'm smart enough to cash out before the going gets tough.
ReplyDeleteMark - you got balls of steel on that trade man. No way in hell I would short C. In fact, I am seriously thinking about whether or not a combo of C + BAC + WFC would outperform CSTR at this point over the next few years. I know the banks are where portfolios go to die but in the past 3 bull markets that I have looked at, the leaders of that bull market got trashed, bounced hard, then got trashed again...and it was at that point that they became great buys again. Not saying it will happen but it's definitely a thing to consider.
back to the topic of W's...CSTR is sure as hell looking to be finishing up it's W pattern. if so that would bring it to about $60. As crazy as it sounds given that it would be a 50% move from last weeks lows, $60 is in my mind still cheap. I'm thinking they could very well do over $1/share EPS this quarter and even higher next quarter. If that's the case then at $60 it would be trading at maybe 13 or 14 times it's annual EPS run rate. A company growing 25%+ annually typically trades for at least 20 times.
ReplyDeleteit's amazing how many times i misspell its. it's one of those things that i always messed up. when i was younger i used to have the hardest time with separate...i used to have to say to myself "par" just to make sure i didn't spell it with a per. anyone else have stupid things like that that your brain would crap out on?
ReplyDelete"anyone else have stupid things like that that your brain would crap out on?"
ReplyDeleteSure, nobody's perfect. ;)
TOF- No really. Over 2 years I would probably agree with you. This will be over Monday morning, or a stop will be in place to protect gains. FWIW, at one point I was up almost $500 and tried to close it, but it moved away too fast so I added into the spike at the close.
ReplyDeletemark - earnings are monday morning right?
ReplyDeleteYay! I just received another promotional check from a Citi credit card with a maximum amount of $15000 with a 0% APR until April 2013. With this check, in addition to another one I lined up for $5K from a Chase card, I'll be able to pay out my margin balance at ETrade and Scottrade, and will thus be able to relax and just wait for one year for my portfolio to rise. Unless, of course, my holdings drop to new lows and I won't be able to resist the desire to add to my positions at those prices...
ReplyDeleteTOF- Yep. BMO.
ReplyDeleteHere is an interesting excerpt from an interview with some asset managers (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/casey-research-summit-special-report-surviving-death-money):
ReplyDelete"In my experience, my biggest gains have been buying big positions in companies where I believed in management and the projects, and bought more when the stock was down, and held the stock for more than a few years."
I've done that with ECU/AUMN. Now let's see if this formula will work out for me as well...
Another excerpt:
ReplyDelete"In today's volatile market, you are competing against manic-depressive traders who show up one day wanting to pay more than what you have is worth and the next day willing to sell for less than their assets are worth. In a devotion to net-nets, one of the best indicators of when you ought to be all-in is when it is full of people so disgusted in the market they are selling for less than they are worth. It's a great time to be an investor."
alright bro...well, good luck with the C short man. i suspect JPM pulled things down enough in terms of expectations, but C from what i remember has been doing better than the other banks recently in earnings.
ReplyDeletewow what's up with INTC?
ReplyDeleteGuys, I spent most of the day fighting it out w/ Vad on HFT. Would one of you mind looking at Vad's comments on #97727...they look like total mesh to me, but maybe it's the drinks.
ReplyDeleteSorry Kyle. I gave it a shot, and am afraid to report my head exploded.
ReplyDeleteTOF- INTC? Don't see it.
ReplyDeleteKyle-
ReplyDeletehttp://www.hftreview.com/pg/blog/mikeohara/read/11595/proposed-algorithmic-trading-obligations-under-mifid-ii-what-are-the-implications
Speaking of HFT, one must wonder why it's so important to have your server so close to the exchange and is there's any relationship to investing or just more skimming off investors?
ReplyDeleteIf I were an investor, I would gladly pay a small fee to keep HFT from scalping value from the market.
Anyway, are Dark Pools layered on top of/dependent on HFT? This firm is publicly listed, and looks like a money loser, so maybe there just no real profit in it?
http://www.itg.com/news_events/papers/DarkListArticleFINAL.pdf
Kyle - It's possible Vad doesn't really understand the inner workings of HFT, he just wants to ensure he doesn't have to pay any additional fees for scalping?
ReplyDeleteI bet there's a way to stop the nonsense that goes on in the market but if it was stopped and GS/etc were forced to trade in a free market, and even though they have huge research staff and economics experts, their profits would probably implode without their HFT "tools".
Call me old-fashioned, but I bet the markets were functioning pretty well before the advent of HFT.
Thanks guys, I'll try to read what Vad wrote again today. It appears to me that these folks at nanex are in these networks/algorithms day-in and out w/ the ability to see ms by ms WTF is going on. So when someone comes along and says that they don't know what they're talking about it just...well I just can't quite process that.
ReplyDeletecp - They interviewed Dick Grasso several times around Sept. 11 and he said that their (the exchanges) really big mistake was going down to the penny (or sub-penny) and that stopping at say 5 cents would have eliminated this high volume / sub-penny algorithm shoot-out that's occurring. Also, that it's 'false liquidity' in that anytime these algorithms sense that something crazy is happening, these algorithms switch off and then the bid/ask spread blows out.
"anytime these algorithms sense that something crazy is happening, these algorithms switch off and then the bid/ask spread blows out."
ReplyDeleteThat makes perfect sense to me, I think the algos could be designed to run the prices up and down on their own, as well. Humans aren't trading all the time, it's probably unrealistic to think trades should be realtime, just think how many times that would mean your inventory would have to turn over in a real business?
If Algo's weren't so highly profitable, I doubt so much money would be spent on implementation. I can easily see the profit motivation for algos, but I'm having trouble finding the real benefit?
Sometimes when price action seems strange, I think about throwing a bid in there just to unfreeze the trading bots, LOL!
cp - Thanks for the links above. Based on the hftreview article you linked, it looks like things are heating up. Hope they do something reasonable and not something that makes it worse.
ReplyDeletecheck this out:
ReplyDeletehttp://protradingtools.com/
replaces coding of trading strategies with an easy to use plug and play interface.
looks like you can automate trading strategies pulling from multiple time frame charts at the same time (confluence).
man, if I hadn't gone to Chico State I might have enough brain cells left to take advantage of a tool like this.
Go Niners!
"The search for a quick profit has seen high frequency trading spread to bond, currency and commodity markets. On 3 February 2010 traders [at] Infinitum switched on a new oil markets HFT algorithm for just five seconds. In that time they lost more than $1 million and rocked the global oil price which spiked before losing 5 per cent of its value.”
ReplyDeletehttp://www.hftreview.com/pg/bookmarks/mike/read/7057/financial-crisis-2-the-rise-of-the-machines-robin-hood-tax
You really do have to wonder just how much crazy crap there is going on in these markets on any given day...
Les posted this link on the CC site. An interesting read...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/commercial_traders_foretell_markets_movements/
Kyle - this whole HFT thing is really going to blow up. Regulators have NO CLUE what is actually going on in the markets, hell I don't think many participants do, including the HFT guys. They will keep stressing the system until we get a LTCM type event then it's going to be "uh oh, we didn't know that could happen"
ReplyDeleteJB - Agree with you completely. You know, there was something 'shark' wrote back in early '09 that I've thought about probably a zillion times since then...
ReplyDeleteRe: Tar Pit
Submitted by shark_attack (1452 comments) on Tue, 02/17/2009 - 11:39 #12124 (in reply to #12121)
Rob,
You've touched upon one of my favorite topics.
I call the previous 20 year period "The Great Retirement Scam", A period in which Johnny lunch-pail was turned into Johnny 401-k for the benefit of Wall Street and no one else. You know how markets work, right? Do you really think that when all the baby boomers retire/get fired all at once and try to cash in those dubious financial instruments, do you really really think they're all gonna retire rich like Wall Street said they would? Is that how markets work? Of course it isn't. Those people are going to be screwdoodled of course, that's what the market does to most ordinary folks. It's SUPPOSED to.
- Hope shark is doing OK and it might not be too long before his prediction comes true.
Good luck with the C trade Mark.
ReplyDeleteGutsy trade with all sorts of possible weekend macro news (good and bad) and earnings.
I also think C will be a good long term buy at some point. The problem right now with stocks like C and JPM and especially BAC now are they keep getting hit with regulations / lawsuits, etc. that hit the stock (whether they should or not).
New post.
ReplyDelete