Gold - No, unless it stays above the SMA-144, it could plunge to under $1500.
I'd consider gold only if it were to do move under $1500, or I'd at least limit my position size if I were buying here.
I really don't understand why it's been so weak lately, the only thing I can put my finger on is operation twist, and that philosophy could even become extended out another 50 years with a 50yr debt issuance.
I doubt I'll live another 50 yrs, and so many people will probably think kicking the can out that far would be a terrific idea as opposed to accepting a weaker dollar?
Just checked in...nice being in buy and hold with a small few short term trades just to pass time. Yes, you fellas had a golden opportunity to get CSTR on the cheap. In fact, you still do!
S&P 1,120? I doubt we will see that any time soon. Maybe 1,170 but I doubt we get much more than that. Looks like yesterday was indeed a one day wonder.
My prediction: those puts are closed at a big loss. Apparently per this article CSTR "missed" revenue estimates last quarter because of competition from Blockbuster. Blockbuster!?!? I swear these people don't read their own articles.
Last quarter CSTR did $435 Million and $0.98 EPS vs $438 and $0.93. I'd call that a wash. As far as growth goes? How about 27% revenue growth and 100% earnings growth? Short away, short away.
Just bought a handful of CSTR $50 calls and $52.5 calls expiring this Friday at $1.4 and $0.45. I suspect it runs up to $55 by Friday heading into NFLX earnings on Monday.
I thought S&P futures would drop to 1170 today and then, possibly, set up a move to 1250. But with today's rally it looks like futures are setting up a H&S pattern with the right shoulder completed right about now. If futures go back down to 1190, then most likely the H&S neckline at 1190 breaks to the downside, implying a long way down...
As for CSTR, I think a drop to $45 is in order this week, so as to shake out all those who got on board of the recent rally. So I am actually waiting to buy some $45 calls on CSTR should it drop below $47.
In case the whole CSTR drop happens tomorrow morning while I am asleep, I just placed buy limit orders for 1 CSTR November $47.50 call at $4.00 and also for 1 CSTR November $45 call at $4.00.
"As for CSTR, I think a drop to $45 is in order this week, so as to shake out all those who got on board of the recent rally. "
david - it's definitely possible for this volatile stock to drop to $45. i think there's also a lot of people on the sidelines assuming a drop is coming because it has happened before.
CADC is having one hell of a day now. :) I just sold at $1.81 the 1500 shares I held in my OptionsHouse account, since in September I added around 1500 CADC shares to my Fidelity account at $1.63. So now I am left with 6000 shares in Fidelity account, which I'll keep for the long term. And if CADC drops to $1.60, then I'll buy it again in OptionsHouse, where transactions are dirt-cheap at $3/trade.
It feels good to finally make a profitable trade! I've been in the buy-and-hold mode for too long now, simply adding to my positions on the way down and just watching my portfolio value deteriorate steadily...
I think Gold may be done here for quite a while as well. When I compare the gold charts to the other commodities, gold would appear to have a lot of catching up to do on the downside. It got WAY too popular and I don't see a lot of buyers at these levels (you're either in if you believe, you're a "never buy gold" person, or you're a value player who is waiting for much better levels).
I'm tempted to play this via a long GLD, short JJC pairs trade, but haven't done anything yet.
"Last quarter CSTR did $435 Million and $0.98 EPS vs $438 and $0.93. I'd call that a wash. As far as growth goes? How about 27% revenue growth and 100% earnings growth? Short away, short away. "
Yeah I know, I think it's all about authors front running their own misleading articles.
Interesting that Copper (JJC) and SPY got the big spike on the news, but GLD did not. You think a $2T bailout would have the gold bugs buying on inflation, devaluation, etc. The fact that it did not on this news also tells me gold is not going up anytime soon.
Yesterday's sell-off had to be the ultimate shakedown. All Nervous Nellies off the train just prior to rocketing back to DJIA 12000 on the strength of AAPL/INTC/YHOO earnings tonight.
Here is the relevant excerpt from the original article in guardian.co.uk:
"the European financial stability facility, will be given additional levers enabling it to offer first-loss guarantees for bondholders, be they private or public. Senior diplomats say this will deliver a fivefold increase in the fund's firepower – giving it more than €2tn compared with the current €440bn lending capability. The EFSF will in effect become an insurer, thereby overcoming European Central Bank resistance to the idea of turning into a bank."
It's getting really hard for Apple to go up now that they are the most valuable company in the world and it's going to be hard to maintain margins now that they are being targeted by Google, Samsung, Amazon, etc. A triple for APPL would give them a $1 trillion market cap.
BAC on the other hand, needs to go up 8-fold just to get back to it's previous high market cap.
Still think it's easier to play the regionals or insurance companies (stupid cheap as Doug Kass says) and avoid the headline risk with the mega-banks.
CFTC Passes Commodities Position Limits, Comments:
"Bix Weir via aweber.com to harvey show details 4:35 PM (1 hour ago)
Today's passing of the position limit rule was a big deal but don't expect it to end manipulation immediately. First of all, there's a 60 day waiting period allowing JP Morgan to further close out their big short position. Second that 60 day waiting period doesn't start until after the CFTC defines the word "swap". Rediculous I know! Like I said before....they don't want to start the crash but rather be ready to try and fix the problem AFTER THE CRASH. It was clear to me that at some point in the very near future Position Limits will be firmly in place and that is not good news for the bad guys.
Last week I sent out a special report to Private Road members (HERE) with the following comment on this hearing... So how can this all play out? Here are 3 scenarios: 1) If they don't pass the rule on the 18th then we are right back to where we have been for the entire year. Continued manipulations into the foreseeable future. 2) If they pass the rule WITHOUT the few month implementation I would say "IT'S OFF TO THE RACES FOR SILVER!" The sky's the limit followed by a global meltdown of all monetary systems...the END GAME. 3) If they pass the rule WITH the a few month implementation process then we would likely see JPM and friends bring silver back up to previous highs before another MAJOR SLAM before the rule is implemented.
If I were a betting man...I'd bet on scenario number 3. I think they will pass the rule and give the banksters a few months. During these few months the next financial crisis will hit allowing the banks to crash the gold and silver markets and cover even more of their short and then try to go long. END
Those of you waiting to open positions on CSTR may have an entry here.
ReplyDeleteOWS - Their plan must be working, banking sector is green and PM's are red?
ReplyDeleteSome pretty scary moves in some stuff so far.
ReplyDeleteSPX - I'm patiently waiting sub 1125, we've seen that number so many times lately it's not unfathomable we won't see it again soon.
ReplyDeleteWHR - $52, Ding, ding, ding!
ReplyDeleteAdmit it, none of you had the guts to buy CSTR @ 48.50> I didn't.
ReplyDelete2nd- I didn't. Shit, the spread is like .20 and AAPL is still dropping.
ReplyDeleteWhy is it people correlate printing with increasing debt? These are two separate actions.
ReplyDeleteIncreasing debt is a promise to repay in the future, either by printing or by creating sufficient wealth(increased tax receipts).
CSTR - What will the price be when S&P is sub 1125? Risk will be lower there.
ReplyDeleteThat's when my gut starts talking buy, if I buy here, my gut will be groaning instead...
Today's selling is just getting going(it's only Tuesday!). Besides, by my account, we've got that open gap to fill around the 50SMA.
Anyone buying gold here?
ReplyDeleteAfghanistan - $2B/week
ReplyDeleteGold - No, unless it stays above the SMA-144, it could plunge to under $1500.
ReplyDeleteI'd consider gold only if it were to do move under $1500, or I'd at least limit my position size if I were buying here.
I really don't understand why it's been so weak lately, the only thing I can put my finger on is operation twist, and that philosophy could even become extended out another 50 years with a 50yr debt issuance.
I doubt I'll live another 50 yrs, and so many people will probably think kicking the can out that far would be a terrific idea as opposed to accepting a weaker dollar?
I'm thinking PM's might just be toast.
Just checked in...nice being in buy and hold with a small few short term trades just to pass time. Yes, you fellas had a golden opportunity to get CSTR on the cheap. In fact, you still do!
ReplyDeleteS&P 1,120? I doubt we will see that any time soon. Maybe 1,170 but I doubt we get much more than that. Looks like yesterday was indeed a one day wonder.
CP- If you keep drinking moderately each day, you may live another 50 years, and maintain a razor sharp mind to boot.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.optionmonster.com/news/article.php?page=commentary/in_the_news/why_the_bears_are_circling_coinstar_62196.html
ReplyDeleteMy prediction: those puts are closed at a big loss. Apparently per this article CSTR "missed" revenue estimates last quarter because of competition from Blockbuster. Blockbuster!?!? I swear these people don't read their own articles.
Last quarter CSTR did $435 Million and $0.98 EPS vs $438 and $0.93. I'd call that a wash. As far as growth goes? How about 27% revenue growth and 100% earnings growth? Short away, short away.
Sold my SPY Calls at breakeven...basically got in too early yesterday..
ReplyDeleteJust bought a handful of CSTR $50 calls and $52.5 calls expiring this Friday at $1.4 and $0.45. I suspect it runs up to $55 by Friday heading into NFLX earnings on Monday.
ReplyDeleteOK, I'll put a single chip on CSTR, just to have something in the game. Bought one November $50 call for $4.20.
ReplyDeleteI thought S&P futures would drop to 1170 today and then, possibly, set up a move to 1250. But with today's rally it looks like futures are setting up a H&S pattern with the right shoulder completed right about now. If futures go back down to 1190, then most likely the H&S neckline at 1190 breaks to the downside, implying a long way down...
ReplyDeleteAs for CSTR, I think a drop to $45 is in order this week, so as to shake out all those who got on board of the recent rally. So I am actually waiting to buy some $45 calls on CSTR should it drop below $47.
ReplyDeleteIn case the whole CSTR drop happens tomorrow morning while I am asleep, I just placed buy limit orders for 1 CSTR November $47.50 call at $4.00 and also for 1 CSTR November $45 call at $4.00.
ReplyDelete"As for CSTR, I think a drop to $45 is in order this week, so as to shake out all those who got on board of the recent rally. "
ReplyDeletedavid - it's definitely possible for this volatile stock to drop to $45. i think there's also a lot of people on the sidelines assuming a drop is coming because it has happened before.
CADC is having one hell of a day now. :) I just sold at $1.81 the 1500 shares I held in my OptionsHouse account, since in September I added around 1500 CADC shares to my Fidelity account at $1.63. So now I am left with 6000 shares in Fidelity account, which I'll keep for the long term. And if CADC drops to $1.60, then I'll buy it again in OptionsHouse, where transactions are dirt-cheap at $3/trade.
ReplyDeleteIt feels good to finally make a profitable trade! I've been in the buy-and-hold mode for too long now, simply adding to my positions on the way down and just watching my portfolio value deteriorate steadily...
ReplyDeleteI think Gold may be done here for quite a while as well. When I compare the gold charts to the other commodities, gold would appear to have a lot of catching up to do on the downside. It got WAY too popular and I don't see a lot of buyers at these levels (you're either in if you believe, you're a "never buy gold" person, or you're a value player who is waiting for much better levels).
ReplyDeleteI'm tempted to play this via a long GLD, short JJC pairs trade, but haven't done anything yet.
Okay, so what pulled us out of the morning nosedive?
ReplyDelete"Last quarter CSTR did $435 Million and $0.98 EPS vs $438 and $0.93. I'd call that a wash. As far as growth goes? How about 27% revenue growth and 100% earnings growth? Short away, short away. "
ReplyDeleteYeah I know, I think it's all about authors front running their own misleading articles.
Look, I know a stopped clock is right twice a day and all that crap, but that doesn't change the fact that- I NAILED IT, BRO!
ReplyDelete'Okay, so what pulled us out of the morning nosedive?'
ReplyDeleteManagers returned from double-martini lunches and gave new marching orders to traders.
3:00 announcement of Germany and France raising bailout fund to $2 trillio. Could have been some leaks earlier.
ReplyDeleteInteresting that Copper (JJC) and SPY got the big spike on the news, but GLD did not. You think a $2T bailout would have the gold bugs buying on inflation, devaluation, etc. The fact that it did not on this news also tells me gold is not going up anytime soon.
ReplyDeleteI can't trade this.
ReplyDeleteBB- Damn...I was thinking the same thing about GLD.
ReplyDeleteYesterday's sell-off had to be the ultimate shakedown. All Nervous Nellies off the train just prior to rocketing back to DJIA 12000 on the strength of AAPL/INTC/YHOO earnings tonight.
ReplyDeletegame over for bears for now. Congratulations to all longs!! 2 trillion sounds good...
ReplyDeleteMark- You can after two martinis.
ReplyDeleteI should say, after two martinis, you can.
ReplyDeleteNow that we're all convinced it's going up, watch it close in the red.
ReplyDeleteAin't gonna happen.
ReplyDeleteI KNOW I would trade better buzzed...Makes for a long day after 1pm though :)
ReplyDeleteGoing for a ride. I need to clear my head.
INTC, baby.
ReplyDeleteHere is the relevant excerpt from the original article in guardian.co.uk:
ReplyDelete"the European financial stability facility, will be given additional levers enabling it to offer first-loss guarantees for bondholders, be they private or public. Senior diplomats say this will deliver a fivefold increase in the fund's firepower – giving it more than €2tn compared with the current €440bn lending capability. The EFSF will in effect become an insurer, thereby overcoming European Central Bank resistance to the idea of turning into a bank."
Mark- Look at the bright side- you dumped your C short just in time.
ReplyDeleteAAPL - On sale here?
ReplyDeleteI think BAC will outperform AAPL in the next 1, 3, and 5 years.
ReplyDeleteI agree TOF.
ReplyDeleteIt's getting really hard for Apple to go up now that they are the most valuable company in the world and it's going to be hard to maintain margins now that they are being targeted by Google, Samsung, Amazon, etc. A triple for APPL would give them a $1 trillion market cap.
BAC on the other hand, needs to go up 8-fold just to get back to it's previous high market cap.
Still think it's easier to play the regionals or insurance companies (stupid cheap as Doug Kass says) and avoid the headline risk with the mega-banks.
CFTC Passes Commodities Position Limits, Comments:
ReplyDelete"Bix Weir via aweber.com to harvey
show details 4:35 PM (1 hour ago)
Today's passing of the position limit rule was a big deal but don't expect it to end manipulation immediately. First of all, there's a 60 day waiting period allowing JP Morgan to further close out their big short position. Second that 60 day waiting period doesn't start until after the CFTC defines the word "swap". Rediculous I know! Like I said before....they don't want to start the crash but rather be ready to try and fix the problem AFTER THE CRASH. It was clear to me that at some point in the very near future Position Limits will be firmly in place and that is not good news for the bad guys.
Last week I sent out a special report to Private Road members (HERE) with the following comment on this hearing...
So how can this all play out? Here are 3 scenarios:
1) If they don't pass the rule on the 18th then we are right back to where we have been for the entire year. Continued manipulations into the foreseeable future.
2) If they pass the rule WITHOUT the few month implementation I would say "IT'S OFF TO THE RACES FOR SILVER!" The sky's the limit followed by a global meltdown of all monetary systems...the END GAME.
3) If they pass the rule WITH the a few month implementation process then we would likely see JPM and friends bring silver back up to previous highs before another MAJOR SLAM before the rule is implemented.
If I were a betting man...I'd bet on scenario number 3. I think they will pass the rule and give the banksters a few months. During these few months the next financial crisis will hit allowing the banks to crash the gold and silver markets and cover even more of their short and then try to go long.
END