Remember the 'Renaissance Man' crap that was popular in the eighties/early nineties?
'Triathlete/musician/poet.'
'Comfortable in tux or jeans.'
'BA in Philosophy, MBA in Finance.'
'Rick Springfield.'
Don't look now, but you've all been transformed into one.
'Dad/day trader/homebuilder/business owner.'
'Dad/day trader/resident (or non-resident) company philosopher/The oracle of Oracle.'
'Engineer/day trader/ ...' At least three of those.
'Day trader/traveling psychedelic player.' So far, just one.
I'm working on my b-card.
Jack-of-all-trades. Assets traded. Asses kicked. Bars cleared. Hopes dashed. Substances abused. Drinks tossed. Let me go practice a few skills.
The nice thing is I can practice all the above skills in one place.
ReplyDeleteIn some cases, simultaneously.
ReplyDeleteI'm certain jesse witnesses simultaneous displays of all the above every night. Third world Asian locations rank supreme.
ReplyDeleteAlright, I just screwed up my knee. See y'all in the am...
ReplyDeleteGreat post, 2nd.
ReplyDeletemorning gents.
ReplyDelete2nd - what did you do to your knee? trading is supposed to be a non-contact sport!
I hit my knee while cussing myself out for not sticking with the BAC trade.
ReplyDeleteKinda surprised to see V selling off. Increased it's divy by 45% today.
ReplyDeletesaw on my AMTD app that a company called B Riley put out a $80 target price on CSTR.
ReplyDeleteWhy are the PM miners getting whacked here?
ReplyDeleteMan, is that it for the financials?
ReplyDeleteWhat is AAPL getting punished for? They plan to make up the 'shortfall' this quarter. Investors have to be one of the most short-sighted groups around.
ReplyDeleteAAPL goes higher: Combo trade: Sell 10 DEC 11 380 puts, Buy 10 DEC 11 420 calls....let 'er rip!
ReplyDeletetwo mins to EIA, fireworks I think. get ready to punch that market order button....then flatten FAST
ReplyDeleteproj 1.3 build, 4.7 draw,,,,guess I'm qualified to generate that forecast as they are ALWAYS wrong
ReplyDeleteseeing the "good" news in housing and the positive trading in financials, I think there's a good chance we go much higher with this development. also, i bet gold takes a nose dive.
ReplyDeleteOP-EX coming, BAC MP is $7, GLD is $168, SPY is $119
ReplyDeleteSeems as usual someone's (maybe all?) not going to hit their target?
CSTR - This one looks poised for a dive. ;)
ReplyDeleteI'm sure that I will be wrong regarding my much higher comment.
ReplyDeleteBanks - I'm sorry but I'm just not going to buy banks because of their criminal involvement with making housing loans to people who had insufficient/no income.
ReplyDeleteGoing into the collapse, even people who were credit worthy and had income were railroaded into ARMs just prior to Bernanke's rate increase. I can't help but think Bernanke's rate increase was a the wrong move, given the circumstances at the time.
I also think a stronger dollar and stronger Euro is the wrong move in the present time, commodities are a limited resource upon which man's existence and lifestyle are heavily dependent, and thus must be treated with more respect than they are currently receiving.
It is not a fault on behalf of commodities that unsustainable levels of debt were allowed to accumulate in the system, it was a result of imprudent money management on behalf of reckless debt pumpers.
Nice call on AAPL calls, jb!
ReplyDeleteGold:Copper - A positive correlation of these two is what you want to see in terms of a coming recessionary environment, the ratio should be less than 400:1.
ReplyDeleteCurrently this ratio is near 500, gold is overpriced in relation to copper(gold must fall, or copper must rise).
Gold:WTIC is also another important monetary metric to follow.
I've been waiting for Bruce Krasting to comment on yesterday's "planted rumor" in Guardian, and he did:
ReplyDeletehttp://brucekrasting.blogspot.com/2011/10/pricing-eu-wi-bonds.html
In the light of this article, I just bought a couple more DB puts, this time $40 November ones.
Any reason for this quick drop?
ReplyDeleteMark - Not sure man...
ReplyDelete2:05 pm : Stocks recently came under a bout of selling interest. The move coincided with word from CNBC commentators, citing other financial media, that officials in Europe are focusing on buying collateral for guarantees as part of the EFSF, but EU lawyers have rejected direct EFSF guarantees.
The Fed just released its latest Beige Book, which indicated that economic activity continued to expand in September, although many districts described the the pace of growth as modest or slight. A weaker or less certain outlook for business conditions was also generally noted. There hasn't been much of a reaction to the report among market participants. DJ30 +29.33 NASDAQ -22.78 SP500 -3.03 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 870/1.09 bln/1570 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1265/430 mln/1660
http://finance.yahoo.com/marketupdate/update
V/MA...Yikes!
ReplyDeleteBull Trap?
ReplyDeleteWell, there's still time enough for a snapback rally based on positive rumor!
ReplyDeleteSomeone tweet something positive, okay?
Sorry, guys, for crashing the market with my purchase of DB puts...
ReplyDeletePardon my language, but damn..CSTR fucking refuses to crack.
ReplyDeleteThe shape of the S&P futures chart over the past two weeks is not looking good -- it looks like S&P made an H&S top after a large rally, and now a retracement back to 1150 is in order.
ReplyDelete"Pardon my language, but damn..CSTR fucking refuses to crack. "
ReplyDeleteThat's fucked up to use that kind of shitty language here.
but yes, you're correct.
CSTR +$4 tomorrow & Friday?
ReplyDeleteFXI looks like a fantastic short here. low risk...stop out at $35.5...target is at least $28.7
ReplyDeletenow that our baby is on the way and we're focusing on shopping for him...i've come to the realization that SUMR is a big player in infant goods. this company keeps coming up on my screens but this is confirmation for me. i remember the balance sheet not being that good though.
ReplyDeleteBidding AH for AUMN. Maybe there's some drunk trader out there.
ReplyDeleteTOF- Patricia is working on that list of sites for you.
CU:gold correlation - I think the positive correlation we saw again today was a positive event.
ReplyDeleteMark, this would be a great entry into AUMN. I wish my cost basis were this low, as it would give an easy 4X return over the next year...
ReplyDeleteI would suggest buying some AUMN here outright and also selling November $7.50 puts on it -- the asking price is $0.75 now, and if you can sell them at this price, this would give you an annualized return of more than 100%. Why try to make money by trading the hard way, when you can make a 100% return the easy way?
David - is AUMN reliant upon higher commodity prices?
ReplyDelete"David - is AUMN reliant upon higher commodity prices?"
ReplyDeleteIn 3 years AUMN will start producing annually $8M AgEqOz at the total cost of around $10/oz (which is the average cost of other silver producers now) from the Velardena district. In two more years, they will start producing additional $5M AgEqOz from their El Quevar district. After that, they will start producing from the Zacatecas district, where they have already showed positive exploration results.
Now make your assumptions about the price of silver going forward and calculate their expected earnings in 2014 and slap a P/E of 50 on it, which is the P/E of small junior producers with a lot of future production potential.
However, we don't need to wait until 2014 in order for AUMN to rocket up -- it should shoot up next summer, after they finally produce the preliminary economic report for the 2000 tpd mill and also announce that they have started building that mill. After that, the market should realize that it is only a matter of two years at most before they start selling $8M AgEqOz per year, and AUMN price should get adjusted accordingly.
ReplyDeleteAfter AUMN recently raised $30M by selling shares at $7.50 to Sentient Group, they now have $120M in cash, which makes them totally independent from the credit markets and guarantees that they WILL be able to build the 2000 tpd mill no matter what happens with the banking system over the next few years.
ReplyDeleteAEM - Shuts down one of their mines. I guess the ore grades were no longer economically feasible at today's prices.
ReplyDeleteWonder if/when FCX takes their copper production back off line like they did back in 2008?
An economically unfeasible mineral deposit can be a real balance sheet killer for commodities producers...
David - "AUMN will start producing annually $8M AgEqOz at the total cost of around $10/oz"
ReplyDeleteDo you know if this cost excludes the value of other minerals produced (lead/zinc)?
CP -- my guess of $10 per oz of AgEq was based on the costs for GPL, SVM, and FVI.TO. The cost for oz of silver WITH credits for lead/zinc is usually negative for producers I have checked so far.
ReplyDeleteAUMN will give a much better estimate of their expected costs next summer, when they produce the preliminary economic assessment.
ReplyDeleteFCX - Looks like some unanticipated disappointment in today's earnings even with a P/E of 6, performance still dissapoints?
ReplyDelete"[$$] Hit by Strikes, Freeport-McMoRan's Net Falls 11%"
Given all the problems, this doesn't sound all that bad:
"▪ Operating cash flows totaled $1.8 billion for third-quarter 2011 and $5.9 billion for the first nine months of 2011, compared with $1.3 billion for third-quarter 2010 and $4.2 billion for the first nine months of 2010."
David - "The cost for oz of silver WITH credits for lead/zinc is usually negative for producers I have checked so far."
ReplyDeleteYeah, that's certainly true for SVM assuming metals prices don't crater. Cost/oz can vary quite a bit too depending on ore concentrations and deposit type.
For some reason, GPL's production costs jumped considerably this last quarter and just this last week they announced recent issues with lower grade ore.
I bailed when GPL stopped putting in new highs, I thought it was due to the increased production costs but should've waited a bit longer to begin legging into SVM.
UXG supposedly has a large exposure to silver as well.
BTU - Now $38, looks like it could run past the mid 40's pretty easily, doesn't it?
ReplyDeleteWhat's the current diluted market cap on AUMN? Some of these little guys have way too many shares outstanding.
ReplyDeleteAlso, in my experience, getting these mines into production is more difficult and expensive and takes longer than you expect. You need rock solid management to keep things on time and budget. Has AUMN management done this before?
The other thing David is they don't usually just slap a 50 P/e on it, they do a NAV calculation based on P&P resources in the ground and the expected mining costs, usually with a 10% discount rate.
ReplyDeleteAUMN has an excellent resource, so you are right if they can prove they can mine it in a cost-effective manner, you could see a big rerating upwards on the stock.
BB Canada -- I don't remember the details, but I think if AUMN were fully diluted, the share count would increase by only a few percentage points.
ReplyDeleteAUMN management has 30 years of experience in bringing mines to production, and since Velardena district is ALREADY producing and they already have two mills working, the whole infrastructure is already in place and increasing the capacity should not be an impossible feat.
new post
ReplyDeleteFCX - "Freeport-McMoRan lost over $30 million as a result of the eight-day strike at Grasberg in July. In addition, deposits of highly-desired metals are being found at ever-greater depths – sometimes as deep as 6,000 metres (19,685 feet). Production costs of $1,600 per gold troy ounce are thus no longer the exception but the rule in South Africa – where deep mining is particularly common. This is another reason why, despite the rising gold price, many miners share prices are lagging.
ReplyDeleteSoaring costs for exploration and mining activities are weighing on the earnings outlook for many mining companies. For mines in developing nations, this has been compounded in recent weeks by the resurgent US dollar – which has led to losses courtesy of exchange rate differences. All of these factors are supply pressures, and something that will add further upward impetus to the prices of many commodities."