Some of them cries about it.
Some of them dies about it.
Everything's a-fightin' about the spoonful
Yeah, those few bucks a month add up, no? Let's pause for a moment of silence in honor of tof's latest killer call- CSTR. Alright, that's long enough. Cheers!
Pullback needed here? I'm not so sure. From a 2-day perspective, sure- it makes sense. But zoom out to a 1-3 month perspective, and we can easily hit 12000-12500 without a pullback.
ReplyDeleteNot that it matters to me.
Beginning in 2012, my company has decided to cut the number of funds available in the 403(b) from 200+ to 28. And will be automatically redirecting all of my current selections into 'comparable' funds among the 28.
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately, 'comparable' in my case means not even in the same ballpark.
So I've signed up for the bonus option: BrokerageLink. This means that beginning in 2012, I have access to basically the entire investing universe.
There's one problem, however. In order to fund the BrokerageLink account, I have to close out positions in my current fund selections. Which means ST trading fees! Unless I'm able to wait out a 30-day holding period since my last contribution.
Do I qualify for a waiver of the ST trading fee since the decision to switch was out of my hands? No.
I'm hoping we have an unbelievable rally into November 11, which then allows me cash out of my current funds, convert to cash, then sell off the next day so that I can reopen positions in the same funds at lower prices.
My plan, of course, is to convert my entire retirement account balance into CSTR and sell when it hits tof's target price of 80.
ReplyDeleteActually, I can sell out of the funds anytime between November 11 and January 31. So let it rally anytime between those two dates.
ReplyDelete2nd thats annooying man. hopefully we dont get 80 before then but my suspicion is we get a big run soon on back of earnings...we shall see the mkt usually does what we least expect.
ReplyDeleteim rooting for a beat, name chg to redbox, aand streaming partner being amzn all in next 2 mths.
busy day plus the boss likes to spend a lot of damn time sitting at my desk talking to peeps on the floor. That certainly makes it more challenging to look at anything in any sort of detail. Didn't do much and prob won't do much tomorrow. i did do one thing that I consider more disciplined. I was selling one of my lackluster performers to raise funds to allocate to something I consider better. Sold just enough EPM (a long term holding) to raise enough to possibly buy some more FCX or at the very least, do a buy-write. I just didn't get a chance to do the FCX side. Maybe we'll get a little pull back in the morn but I'm not counting on it, especially without any euro news.
ReplyDeleteIf we come in tomorrow AND if I get a chance, I'll buy FCX and sell the weekly calls, either 40 or 41 strike. I like the premiums on both.
port whats ur profession?
ReplyDeleteI execute natural gas fixed price and basis swaps to hedge our natural gas positions. I also manage a little bit of natural gas storage.
ReplyDeleteThe important thing to understand here is that I do these swaps to lock in a profit or minimize losses so it's really a hedging function. That is much simpler than going long/short expecting/hoping to make a profit.
I forgot, I did buy some SSO around DOW +100. I really though we were heading for a DOW 200+ kind of day when it started moving up before lunchtime. For some reason I'm pretty disciplined using stops on SSO/SDS whereas I tend to get married to my individual stock positions.
ReplyDeleteFor example, I'm currently married to CSCO around $19.75 ish I think after taking out the covered calls I've been selling. I just can't seem to let it go.
Didn't get stopped out of my SSO today but I'm going to set a fairly loose stop tonight. Sometimes I plan on doing that in the morn at work and I never get around to it. Sure we could drop tomorrow, wouldn't surprise me at all but it sure feels bullish and all we need is one good headline out of Europe.
ReplyDeletegood luck tomorrow
Wow...
ReplyDeletehttp://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000033170#eyJ2aWQiOiIzMDAwMDMzMTcwIiwiZW5jVmlkIjoiM3F5VGlERFZSaEJRWnl5cjlVWm1GUT09IiwidlRhYiI6ImNvbW1lbnRzIiwidlBhZ2UiOjEsImdOYXYiOlsiwqBMYXRlc3QgVmlkZW8iXSwiZ1NlY3QiOiJBTEwiLCJnUGFnZSI6IjEiLCJzeW0iOiIiLCJzZWFyY2giOiIifQ==
2nd I believe you could avoid the ST taxes by using the wash rule if you buy back the same fund within 30 days right?
ReplyDeleteThat's assuming you sell your funds at a loss...
ReplyDeleteDavid/RB...It's fee's not taxes.
ReplyDeleteDavid, Say it is not so, its not a two way street, but only a one way in favor of uncle SAM?
ReplyDeleteRB, the whole notion of taxing my trading gains feels like a medieval evil to me...
ReplyDelete2nd,
ReplyDeleteif you just stop the contributions now and have them go to cash, won't that give you the 30 days on no contributions before you can start the BrokerageLink in 2012?
Katie Stockton comparing SPX currently w/ 2 previous time-periods (1998 and 2007/8)...
ReplyDeletehttp://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000053040
Yes, I could cash out now and wait 30 days, but anything can happen in those 30 days. The indexes could rally 15% in 30 days (sure, they could also drop 15% in 30 days). I need to remain fully invested.
ReplyDeleteNo worries. There is a 'grace period' between now (in my case, between November 11) and January 31. So I hope to cash out the accounts on a day characterized by a gap-up/exuberance, and simply buy back in the following day.
Mark is correct. Fidelity imposes a ST trading fee on positions held less than 30 days. My initial argument was I moved into these funds back in early May, so I'm way past the 30-day minimum. However, I forgot that I've been making new contributions to them every 2 weeks.
ReplyDeleteI honestly feel we need to consolidate here. Close flat to moderately lower, work off a little exuberance. 'Back and fill,' as Brinker would say.
ReplyDeletebtw- Fidelity imposes those ST fees only on certain funds- unfortunately, all five of my selections qualify
ReplyDeleteKyle - what credentials does this Katie Stockton chick have? I mean it smells to me like she made a call near the lows that we had more downside, then we got a huge rally, and she's sticking to her guns hell or high water (what's the origin of that saying anyway?). Is she coming on the boob tube a lot nowadays for damage control?
ReplyDelete(Of course, this rally could always end here at prior support and make her look smart)
tof - WOW, you got all that from this one video???
ReplyDeleteI thought she was just comparing the current SPX chart pattern to 2 prior situations that had similar H-n-S topping formations. The 2 prior situations played out differently. Based on the extended duration of this topping formation, she felt we were headed back down. But it may go the other way, of course.
As for credentials, you can read for yourself...
http://mkmpartners.com/technical.html
kyle - not from that one video...just that i have seen lots of links to her interviews over the past few weeks so it just seemed to me like she was out in the media a lot. of course i could be wrong since i don't watch as much as i used to.
ReplyDeleteCSTR stock price > NFLX by Friday?
ReplyDeleteIf gold doesn't get above 1,700 I think it's a long road lower.
ReplyDeleteactually that's probably a good trade...short Gold with a stop above 1,700
ReplyDeleteSell off is good.
ReplyDeleteIf it seems like I'm not posting much, it's because I'm canvasing the state monitoring the lines at Redbox.
ReplyDeleteNot sure what's up with GLD.
ReplyDeleteMark- You need an i-Pad. That will allow you to post real-time info from each RedBox site as you travel.
ReplyDeleteIt's probably unrealistic to think we'll go higher until there's more clarity from Europe?
ReplyDeleteHave you made the appointment for your HPV inoculations? I recall the market always rally's on virus inoculation announcements.
SVM - There's an open gap up, the only open gap in the entire chart, from $8.31...
CP- I think they're setting up a rally on Wednesday, which is when we see EU finance ministers high-fiving each other.
ReplyDelete2nd - the same way they're setting up for a rally in CSTR to much higher prices. We already know there is a bunch of doubters on the stock...everyone agrees that DVDs are finished (I mean after 4 years of streaming a whopping 2% of the worldwide movie viewing public streams!!!).
ReplyDeleteRationally, the stock is SUPPOSED to go much higher on the back of NFLX earnings. What better way to support the doubters thesis than to keep it in check today? It sets it up perfectly for a huge move higher, fueled higher and higher by new shorts continuing to doubt it.
If I were into shorter term trades at this point I would probably short GLD right here at $165.12 and put a stop $167. I just feel like the risk-reward on that trade is excellent.
ReplyDelete"If gold doesn't get above 1,700 I think it's a long road lower."
ReplyDeleteWell, just to make sure that there is no long road lower, gold just spiked above 1700. :)
Has anyone figured out why that happened?
Looks like stock indices are making clear higher lows since the morning sell-off, and yet another higher low has just been made. When traders catch up to that, S&P can easily rally into the green...
ReplyDeleteNobody at CC has any idea either about the move in gold/silver... As for the broad market, they all seemed to buy Geoff's speculation:
ReplyDelete"Case in point; stock futures were slightly higher this morning, but turned down due to Germany’s Chancellor Merkel stating that Germany will not approve a phrase in a draft for Wednesday’s EU summit. The phrase allows the European Central Bank to continue to buy bonds and Germany does not want politicians to be telling the ECB what to do."
I don't fully buy it, since DB is green today. So something else is going on. Maybe, as 2nd_ave suggested, the sell-off is just technical today?
looking at the recent rally in the market, it's pretty clear that there is a rotation underway from small/mid caps to large caps. look at the charts of the following:
ReplyDeleteIWM
MDY
SPY
Run into the close? That would really piss off the bears.
ReplyDeleteJust bought 300 shares of TBT at $20.83 and placed a sell stop limit at $20.45/$20.40, just below the low it made on October 18.
ReplyDeletetof - possible...looking at potential Inv HnS in TNA w/ 44.40 neckline & 43.75 head
ReplyDeleteAnd also just bought 500 more shares of AUMN at $7.60 and placed a sell stop limit at $7.20/$7.15, just below today's low. Today's spike down in the morning dropped just below Friday's low, so I say that all the required stops were hit and now it is all set for a take off.
ReplyDeleteKyle- That's interesting. You take 1 hr patterns?
ReplyDeleteIt's kind of silly to see AUMN down on the day when gold and silver are having a huger run up, making new highs as we speak. To me, it spells a buying opportunity.
ReplyDeletemark - it just brok, I'm looking at 14:05-now
ReplyDeleteKyle- Yep, I'm watching it.
ReplyDeletethese c&h and h&s take longer to develop right
ReplyDeleteWhat time frame do you normally take?
ReplyDeletemark - anything I can figure out bubba!!!! :-)
ReplyDeleteLooks like John Corzine is kicking butt.
ReplyDeleteFair enough Kyle!
ReplyDeleteMark - that brief pop in TNA was reversed pretty quick. There might be another up-shot coming off the 44 lvl, but things r looking fairly weak.
ReplyDeleteFor all the negative headlines about Europe, DB is still up 1% today.
ReplyDeletemy inability to fake day trade for a profit just reinforces that i should never day trade. i don't know how u guys do it but God bless ya.
ReplyDeleteDavid - AUMN should be up? the market never does what we think it will...CSTR should be up on NFLX earnings but people are in selling mode.
David,
ReplyDeleteDB has better than expected earnings and disclosed their amount of Greek and other PIIG bond exposure and how much has been written down already and how they were still above the new 9/0% capital levels.
I am thinking of buying DB as it is a dirt cheap stock assuming Europe is OK, has a solid underlying business model. Problem is it is up 30% in the last couple of weeks, so ahrd to jump in now.
Just bought 200 more shares of TBT at $20.70 (for a total of 500 shares purchased today) and included all these 500 shares into my sell stop limit order at $20.45/$20.40.
ReplyDeleteAMZN- Holly shit.
ReplyDeletetof - this was one of those 'all over the place trading days'...
ReplyDeletehttp://tradinglog.realitytrader.com/
I don't trade w/ Vad's group, but 'structure' was hard to come by today...
kyle - yeah i don't know how u guys do it. i like longer term trades in general...not buy and hold but longer than day. i guess it's called swing trade.
ReplyDeletei still think GLD is a great setup for a short. on the monthly chart it looks like one of those island reversals i think they call it...the big final exuberant push up, then the crash. knowing how those things can sometimes end, shit a move to 65 is certainly not out of the realm of possibility.
if you look at all of the gaps and the support areas on the daily chart for GLD you can see why this would be a great setup for a short. you have a gap higher on 8/8 that opened at $165, support on that mini-crash on 8/25 at $165, then a gap lower that opened on 9/23 right at around $165. all of those moves built up support around $165 and when it broke below $165 in late Sept, it's now a lot of overhead resistance...lots of buyers looking to get out at even.
ReplyDeleteSo todays push to $165 is basically right into resistance in my opinion. And if you look at the monthly chart it looks like there was a bit of a blow off top in August.
Just seems like a really low risk trade to me...you get stopped out at $167 or $168 for a 2% loss, but you could potentially make at least 50% if the final bull market blow off top was in August.
2nd - "when we see EU finance ministers high-fiving each other."
ReplyDeleteThere's only one side of a trade for participating in an event like that.
GLD - TOF, I wouldn't want to trade gaps in that chart. In the case of trading gaps, use $gold instead?
ReplyDeleteHey you CSTR'ers.
ReplyDeleteThe downloading of shows / movies torrents and project free tv streaming of shows is working well enough now that I cancelled my movie channels and HBO.
We don't have Redbox's in Canada, so a rental is still $5, but I think this is the real threat to your business model. I'm a pretty technically capable guy, but my daughter didn't even get cable this year at school as she figures she'll just stream whatever she wants to watch. Shows are available usually within an hour of appearing on TV.
I understand your business case and, hey, there are still newspaper that make money as well. I just don't see a potentially shrinking business model as receiving an above-market multiple.
I'm more of a deep value investor than growth as well, so it doesn't appeal to me from that perspective, but I'd be very happy to be wrong and hope you get your $80.
tof - and I don't know how you do it either. Vad had an exchange w/ bbarberayr CC #85709 that contained this statement
ReplyDelete"I would determine the difference between our respective outlooks is more than just time frame. From what you say it's this: you believe in objective fundamental value and one's ability to determine it. I don't. What I do believe in is human beliefs and emotions reflecting themselves in the charts to a degree where they can be read and exploited."
I listen to these stories from the company CEOs, the analysts, the opinion-givers (Cramer, etc.) and I can't tell WTF is going on w/ ANY of these companies. Then when you throw in Global-Macro... There are TOO MANY Moving Parts.
Not to sound too much like Grym, but I worked for IBM (83-94) and when Lou Gerstner took over, well he remarked in his book that 'Few people knew how close IBM came to becoming insolvent'. Even the CEOs don't know, how can we??????
Stopped out of my SSO, at first I was upset but then got all happy about it at the end of the day.
ReplyDeleteI set up a new type of order at lunch, with the weeklys which I said I don't like.
On FCX sold the 38 strike puts for $.72 and bought the 41 strike calls for $.17. Just two lots each so there's not much left after commission but this is something new for me. It's called a collar.
I'm going to look for a redbox.
kyle - i think those are some pretty broad comments...there are plenty of cases where one company's near blow up scares the crap out of potential long term investors. i'm not the biggest fan of buy and hold for the average person because the average person doesn't know what a balance sheet is and how it ties into a cash flow statement.
ReplyDeletegenerally speaking for me i start with companies that have good revenue growth, then make sure they have good balance sheets, then make sure they're operating in an industry that is growing or that has good growth prospects and they own the lion's share of that industry, then it comes down to valuation vs potential.
Vad says "What I do believe in is human beliefs and emotions reflecting themselves in the charts to a degree where they can be read and exploited." well you can exploit that on longer time frames as well. for example, with MITK, their main product is cool, cell phones are hot, the cloud is hot, and they're the only game in town. so it only stands to reason that people will eventually go crazy for their stock.
I have a CF option trade I did last month that worked out well. I put on a bear put spread using the 130/125 strikes and I also sold short the 120 strikes on 9/30/11. CF dropped from 140 ish to 120 ish over the next two days. I closed out the 130/125 spread for a profit but not as much as I though I would have gotten and the 120 puts expired worthless.
ReplyDeleteIn this case I was prepared to buy the stock and my purchase price would have been around 115 if everything would have expired in the money. I may try that again with the November expiry.
AUMN - David, isn't it true that as of the most recent data, Sprott assets owns in excess of 800,000 shares of your darling?
ReplyDeleteCP -- where do you get the data about who owns AUMN?
ReplyDeletetof - MITK traded 312K today -- it's a 'chicken-scratch' stock (on the 1d-1min) -- Hope the 'story' works...
ReplyDeleteGold - Now if you were to say you wanted to short gold b/c you're anticipating central bankers to knock it down prior to Europe's announcing a plan to print their way out of debt, then I could agree there's a good probability.
ReplyDeletecp - I'm with you there, if the IMF becomes involved in the 'leveraging' engine by selling Gold, then ...
ReplyDeletekyle - what r u invested in?
ReplyDeletetof - other than 401K things, I'm not 'invested' in much of anything in the trading account. I have a small FCX position that I'm planning to write calls against if it gets a little higher, and much smaller MCP, JAG, HL, DNN probe positions. Other than that, I trade SLW, TNA, TZA, LVS on a daily basis (what Vad would call 'the ususal candidates')
ReplyDeleteDavid - It's from Sprott's 13F-HR filing on SEC Edgar:
ReplyDeleteGolden Minerals Company Com 38111910 14,610 821,700 sh Sole 821,700
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1277006/000127700611000031/jun1113f.txt
CP -- well, that's nice to know. :) Sprott has many choices, and the fact that he chose AUMN means that fundamentally they are in a good shape.
ReplyDeleteKyle - If you mean the EU might sell physical gold, I would disagree. More than likely they'll throw a bunch of paper at the short side paper market to push it down? Why wouldn't they, it's just paper they can create at will!
ReplyDeleteJust bought 200 more shares of TBT at $20.52. I now have 1000 shares total. Since the current price is so close to the previous low at $20.50, where I am sure MANY sell stop orders are placed, I decided to move down my sell stop limit for 700 shares to $19.99/$19.95.
ReplyDeleteDavid - Yes, knowing Sprott thought enough of AUMN does lend a vote of approval.
ReplyDeleteYou can see more of Sprott's filing here:
http://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?CIK=0001277006&action=getcompany
Re- Sprott filling. More interesting than AUMN, frankly, is the 18,000 shares of TZOO in there!
ReplyDeleteAlso, so as to reduce the chance of me being needlessly stopped out by a fake move lower in AUMN, I lowered my sell stop limit to $6.95/$6.90 for the 1500 "trading" shares I recently acquired.
ReplyDeletecp- from what I heard the IMF has a significant Gold reserve that they can leverage (w/ probably options-on-futures contracts) to aid the EU in their Euro devaluation. More complicated than I can understand -- which is why I'm moving towards intra-day trading...
ReplyDeleteKyle,
ReplyDeleteI find intra-day trading to be very difficult. I've made some money at it, but it took a lot of time and gave it up probably before the odds caught up with me. If you can do it and consistently make money, it's a great way to go as you can make money "every day".
As far as looking at fundamentals goes, it obviously can work very well as there are many examples like the obvious Warren Buffet example and many of the other successful hedge fund managers.
You're right that you can never fully understand the value of a company completely. Seth Klarmin in his "Margin of Safety" book:
Many investors insist on affixing exact values to their investments, seeking precision in an imprecise world, but business value cannot be precisely determined. Reported book value, earnings, and cash flow are, after all, only the best guesses of accountants who follow a fairly strict set of standards and practices
designed more to achieve conformity than to reflect economic value. Projected results are less precise still. You cannot appraise the value of your home to the nearest thousand dollars.
Why would it be any easier to place a value on vast and complex businesses? Not only is business value imprecisely knowable, it also
changes over time, fluctuating with numerous macroeconomic, microeconomic, and market-related factors. So while investors at any given time cannot determine business value with precision, they must nevertheless almost continuously reassess their estimates of value in order to incorporate all known factors that
could influence their appraisal.
Or from Benjamin Graham's book:
The essential point is that security analysis does not seek to determine exactly what is the intrinsic value of a given security. It needs only to establish that the value is dequate-e.g., to protect a bond or to justify a stock purchase-or else that the value is considerably higher or considerably lower than the market price. For such purposes an indefinite and approximate measure of the intrinsic value may be sufficient.
They both point to the fact that you need not understand a lot of businesses, but rather focus on things you understand well. I like insurance companies as I worked in one for 6 years and had them as customer for another 6, so I understand their business models and the risks. That is why I am very comfortable buying the life companies now when everyone is saying they can't make money with such low rates.
I am not good at picking CSTR stocks like TOF is, but he does a really great job and also, as he says, starts with fundamentals.
BB- I agree with both of those quotes. Thanks for posting them as they are basically the basis from which I trade and using TA for entry exits.
ReplyDeleteBB,
ReplyDeleteGood, we're having a discussion of this.
One of the things 'they' often recommend to technology people is to NOT invest in something you work on, because you only see the potential up-side and are basically disconnected from what the real 'story' is. Obviously, AAPL and other tickers are the exception. Enron and 'almost' IBM (at the time) were exceptions. What I observed 'first hand' is that when a company starts to come apart, it's a CASCADE. There may (and certainly were in IBM's case) be signs many years' prior, but it UNRAVELS in a FLASH.
I respect your intentions to understand the details of the balance sheets, etc of the business you invest in. I respect the ACADEMIC work of the people you cite.
BUT, VERY FEW companies operate in the Post-WW2 environment that these people experienced. It is indeed a Brave New World....
BB,
ReplyDeleteBTW HIG was one of Vad's 'usual candidates' a year or 2 ago ago, and I'm looking at the 2d-5m and 1d-1m charts now. Very interesting and potentially very readable. Thanks for the tip.
I completely agree with BB's comment regarding investing in what you know. I rarely trade longer time frames in businesses I can't understand. I personally like to stick with things related to the internet or technology, but I also like retail a lot...most importantly, they have to have simple business ideas because I'm too dumb to try to comprehend things like semiconductors or healthcare or metals. I feel like there's just too many moving parts and my brain is too dense to comprehend all of the parts. Probably all of the Schlitz I drank at Lehigh.
ReplyDeleteI think the best mix is to use fundamentals and then look at simple technical things like moving averages and support/resistance levels for determining what is a good buy point and what is a good sell point. If you believe in the story, though, it doesn't really matter.
Just read some interesting articles about MF. Yikes!
ReplyDelete"BUT, VERY FEW companies operate in the Post-WW2 environment that these people experienced. It is indeed a Brave New World.... "
ReplyDeleteI'm not entirely sure I agree with that...I mean businesses still come down to people and how they run them. Businesses have gotten more efficient but they've been getting more efficient for hundreds of years. Investment opportunities are endless. Look at GMCR, DECK, AMZN, PNRA, CMG, etc...these were all brands that many of us used on a regular basis and generated astronomical returns if you believed in the story and stuck with the stock. Lots of them had tons of competition and no real competitive advantage but they still managed to turn into great long term investments.
Kyle- MF is a good example for you. Now THAT'S unraveling fast. MET also got hit pretty hard on news AH.
ReplyDeleteMark - it is kinda eery how similar things happening in the market today are like they were in 2008. I'm not saying we're going that way, but a lot of things can remind you of then. The few things that stick out to me are:
ReplyDelete*rumors of bankrupt airlines
*big scary drop kinda out of nowhere
*rumors about random no name banks going under, then subsequently needing to raise capital (Dexia comes to mind)
TOF- Watching the local news and they are doing a piece on NFLX. Interviewed a 30ish dude...
ReplyDelete"When they raised prices I realized I wasn't using it enough and decided to just use Redbox instead."
Pretty funny.
Kyle, there's nothing new in the world. Sure, computers weren't around 50 years ago, but people got caught up in the railway boom, the radio boom, the TV boom, etc.
ReplyDeleteWhat I like to do the best when reading a book is pick up a really old one that people still rate highly. Anyone can write a book on something new, but if it stands the test of time, you know it works again and again.
Best book I read last year was "The Psychology of the Stock market" by G.C. Sheldon. It was written in 1912 and is really short and they didn't have Bollinger Bands, etc. but the basics of stock market cycles and how to trade these hasn't changed in 100 years.
Mark, saw that MET sell-off based on the Fed not letting them raise their dividend based on the fact they are a bank holding company as they own a small bank. Really dumb as the state insurance superintendents did a vastly better job than the Fed in managing the insurance companies the last cycle. If they approve the dividend, Fed should get out of the way. MET is talking about just selling this group and then raising dividend. Probably good to buy in the Am if still down for a quick bounce.
BB- It's comments like these that make Twits a must!...
ReplyDeleteIf $CSTR could find some loose change, they might be able to buy $NFLX soon.
MET- Yep, seemed a little overdone to me.
ReplyDeleteMark, can you explain Twits. I signed up about a week ago and added a few stocks, but haven't really made any use out of it.
ReplyDeleteI've got a twitter account where I follow about a dozen investment people, but that's it.
BB- That's really about it. I 'follow' about 50 stocks I'd guess. 25 I trade, 25 'key' movers. Frankly, it's really just a great source for article links and some interesting charts. My twitter account is linked to Twits. I almost never comment. Maybe 10 times total.
ReplyDeleteMark,
ReplyDeleteMaybe I should be more diligent with it and see what if it can be of more value. Finding time to follow everything can be tough.
What I've found useful, especially for the smaller stocks, is using Google Alerts.
It recently pointed me to a large buy of one of my stocks by a key investor that was under the reporting threshold. Also, I find when a stock reports, Google will often provide the the link to the local newspaper covering the event and this will have additional info not in the national press.
BB - Yes, we can agree on 'Psychology of the Stock Market' by Sheldon...I bought it after reading...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.billcara.com/archives/2008/10/caras_commentary_community_cha_214.html
You can Google the title and get this as a free PDF. I ran across this passage and I thought that I would share it with Bill's readers.
From, The Pitfalls of Speculation (P 49)
Summing up, the man who speculates in a
business-like way trades only in standard properties
with whose history, physical condition,
earnings and prospects he has thoroughly
familiarized himself; forms for himself a careful
estimate of normal value and uses this
value as a gauge by which to decide when
prices are too low and too high ; takes into consideration
also the technical condition of the
market, and does not embark with bad company,
even at low prices ; is not misled by the
thrills of inflation, or the chills of depression;
operates, not for the purpose of gathering a
small profit from many transactions, but to
gather a large profit from a few; trades with
responsible middle-men, and, above all things,
is patient. In short, he maps out for himself
an intelligent and well-founded plan of operation,
contemplating all that may occur, and
having mapped it out, follows it.
Very few speculate in this manner, and
very few succeed.
Posted by: Leisa at October 16, 2008 4:20 PM
Yes, I've read it. But they didn't operate in an environment where the numbers are all manufactured and Bull-shit. Again, not to sound too much like Grym...
Kyle - mfg and bullshit? man, you gotta read up on the reporting requirements back in the day. it's insane. i can't remember which book i read it in, but i read some sample prospectuses that companies put out when they were going public and it was freaking ridiculous.
ReplyDelete"TOF- Watching the local news and they are doing a piece on NFLX. Interviewed a 30ish dude...
"When they raised prices I realized I wasn't using it enough and decided to just use Redbox instead."
Pretty funny. "
I'm convinced analysts are and the market in general is missing the story at CSTR. Did you know that Hulu and Amazon don't even have the top 50 movies of the past 2 years and Amazon doesn't even have the top 50 TV shows of the past two years available for streaming? Any customers that Netflix is losing are going directly to Redbox.
There are challenges in every investing environment - they just change. Perhaps you have also read "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" (Edwin Lefevre) from 1923. You want to talk about a tough environment.
ReplyDeleteFor all the problems we have now, at least there is a SEC and quiet period and rules on insider trading.
Plus from my personal experience, I don't think there is as nearly as much of the tweaking going on as people tend to portray.