Hey Mark, got to thank you for pointing at MET after hours a few days ago. That stock has been on fire since then! Would have missed it completely.
Still holding and like the earnings and the valuation today.
From Doug Kass on Twiiter today "LIFE INSURANCE STOCKS FACE THE BEST OF ALL WORLDS"
I agree with that a 4 of my top 8 stocks are lifeco's - MET, NWLI, KCLI and POW in Canada.
NWLI is probably the best here - incredibly cheap, consistently profitable, conservatively run and hasn't moved up much. It's almost certainly a double in 2 to 3 years.
Kyle - Just watched the video on cnbc.com. Sounds like they're all bullish on CSTR. I think this is an extreme over-reaction on a temporary hit to their earnings. Fact is their price hike is going to raise earnings significantly. The beauty of their business model (and kiosks in general) is that the majority of their costs are fixed. That's why the model beats bricks & mortar retail any day of the week.
Guys, did you see that morning spike to $50 in CSTR? That was my sell limit at $50 getting hit (for the 250 shares I purchased AH yesterday at $47). Seriously. Unbelievable luck on my part with CSTR. I guess I used up all my bad luck in trading earlier this year, getting stopped out of F, CCJ, DANG, REDF, and then TLT puts.
TOF, so should I interpret your morning advice not to sell at $50 as an invitation to jump back into it at $48? :)
Also, once I cancelled all my stops on AUMN, it finally started moving up, outperforming GDXJ. Guys, take a look at the 1-month chart of AUMN -- it is sitting on a strong support at $7.30, and with GDXJ making a new high, a thrust up is very likely. Then, take a look at the 2-year chart of AUMN and notice that $7.50 is a major pre-QE2 support level. So it makes a perfect sense to buy AUMN now both for a short-term trade AND for a long-term hold.
BB, I hear what you are saying about the lifecycle of a miner. The thing is, AUMN is still continuing exploration on their own properties (so their own momentum should not stop right here), while ECU was treading water for 2 years precisely because they were trying to get Velardena going and there was no excitement in their stock in the meantime. So I doubt there is any more downside left in AUMN. In fact, the current price is an AMAZING buy already (I posted yesterday that out of their $260M market cap they have $120 in cash, so they are given an absurdly low credit for their gold/silver in the ground, which they will soon start producing). So while I can bitch about AUMN going down 60% since the merger with ECU, in retrospect this will turn out to be a gift as my recent purchases at $7.50 will go up many X over 3 years. Assuming, of course, I don't take profits too early, which I probably will :).
David - I could have sold yesterday at $56 but I believe in the business model. They have a streaming deal coming out soon, which should be yet another catalyst for the company. I think they will do over $5 EPS in 2012 (way above estimates b/c of price hike). If I had sold yesterday I would be buying back today. I think it has room to run to $80+
Naturally, my sell limit for CADC got hit this morning at $2.22 for the 6000 shares I had. My cost basis was somewhere under $2 -- I am not sure exactly where it was, since I traded it successfully many times over the past year.
The point of this sale, as I wrote yesterday, was not to take profits early, but to reduce my (and my wife's) discomfort from the fact that I borrowed shit loads of money from credit cards, piled up all that money into stocks and THEN got on margin with the broker. If I am investing borrowed funds from credit cards, then I at least owe to myself and to her not to have a margin debit with the brokers...
TOF, let's hope you are right about CSTR. If it starts moving up tomorrow, then I'll make money on the November $50 call I have and will also pocket premium from the 2 November $50 puts I sold short for $3.20 yesterday. If CSTR doesn't rise above $50 by November OpEx, then I will naturally acquire 200 shares at $46.80, when my puts will be assigned to me. So I'll just wait and see what happens...
Well, this helps at little...I just realized Schwab has my cost basis messed up in one account for CSTR. So I actually an UP 1.5K more than I thought ;)
"I'm actually uncomfortable David is NOT in margin."
Don't worry, Mark -- I am still on margin by about $22K. Yesterday I "found" another promotional check from a credit card for $5K, so that will reduce my margin to $17K (and will increase the borrowed funds I piled into the market to about $40K).
So my goal number 1 will be to sell, with profit, $17K worth of stocks so as not to have any margin, and I'll try doing that ASAP. Goal number 2 will be to sell *with profit* $40K more of stocks, so as to be able to return back to credit cards the $40K I borrowed from them. I have one more year to implement the second goal, since all my borrowed funds have a 0% APR until next August or so.
Besides AUMN, another stock that is set to rocket, I think, is ONP. It has built a long flat base for itself over the past month with $2.40 as a floor, then dropped below it so as to run stops but stopped its decline at $2.30, stayed at $2.30 for a week, and is now back above $2.40. Over the past 6 months, ONP had a very high correlation with HAO, and since HAO broke out yesterday to a new higher high after making a higher low after October 4, I think a breakout in ONP is inevitable. It's absurd, however, how thinly traded HAO is. With a bid/ask $2.41/$2.43, I just placed a buy limit order for 5000 shares at $2.43, and only 900 shares got filled before the bid/ask moved to $2.43/$2.45. I ain't gonna chase it -- they WILL bring it down, reluctantly, and him my limit at $2.43 today...
Guys, did you notice that the daily percentage gain/loss data is totally screwed up today on all systems? For example, google shows that TBT is trading now above yesterday's close but at the same time it is down 2.5%...
David, from what i can tell about AUMN, the market is assigning almost no value to the huge deposit ECU has.
Is there a chance it is uneconomic or some political / environmental issues?
I've looked at Northern Dynasty (NAK) and they've got the largest known gold / copper deposit in the world, but it is inside the Alaska Wildlife Reserve and they think it will take at least 5 years to build a mine, if ever, so it is only valued at about $800 million, but contains over 100 million ounces of gold plus other minerals (total value $400 billion).
Looks like I tricked those computer algorithms that were milking people on the ONP bid/ask spread. My "huge" $10K buy limit order lit a fire under ONP! I got only 900 shares filled at $2.43, but that's OK -- I bought 1000 shares yesterday at $2.41. :) So if ONP takes off now, I wouldn't mind. :)
BB, there are no political/environmental issues with Velardena that ECU ever mentioned in any of its communications. As for it being economic, the CFO of ECU told me on the phone in May, I believe, that they finally started generating some cashflow from Velardena, at the throughput of 650 tpd.
AUMN said that the recovery rates of ECU were shamefully low, and they have announced a restructuring process for the mine which is supposed to DOUBLE the total silver/gold output from Velardena by the end of 2012 (but will reduce production in 3Q and 4Q of 2011). Since many of the costs associated with Velardena are fixed, they will have a nice positive cashflow from it at that point, using the maximum throughput of 800 tpd available from two existing ECU's mills. AUMN is planning to steadily increase Velardena output in 2012 and stated themselves that they will become cashflow positive in 3Q 2012.
Once AUMN builds the new 2000 tpd mill in 2014, their cashflow will be that much higher...
Mark - RAS was the buy bro.
ReplyDeleteCSTR - Sure looks like just a retest of the 200SMA at this point.
ReplyDeleteMan, it sure is tempting me to pull the trigger.
TZA - Cancelled my TZA bid so the market can run higher.
TRID - "•Trident Microsystems to Announce Third Quarter Results on Nov. 3, "
ReplyDeleteI've been watching this one from an Android internet TV perspective...
CP > Just do it bro. You'll be happy in a year when they're projected to do $6 EPS in 2013 and they have a streaming deal in place.
ReplyDeleteTRID - Okay, I'm in here at $0.55...
ReplyDeleteLet's see how it goes... ;)
Hey Mark, got to thank you for pointing at MET after hours a few days ago. That stock has been on fire since then! Would have missed it completely.
ReplyDeleteStill holding and like the earnings and the valuation today.
From Doug Kass on Twiiter today "LIFE INSURANCE STOCKS FACE THE BEST OF ALL WORLDS"
I agree with that a 4 of my top 8 stocks are lifeco's - MET, NWLI, KCLI and POW in Canada.
NWLI is probably the best here - incredibly cheap, consistently profitable, conservatively run and hasn't moved up much. It's almost certainly a double in 2 to 3 years.
wow nice BB...MET looks great.
ReplyDeletethey're talking CSTR on cnbc now
ReplyDeleteWhere is everyone- analyzing the CNBC report word by word?
ReplyDeleteKyle - Just watched the video on cnbc.com. Sounds like they're all bullish on CSTR. I think this is an extreme over-reaction on a temporary hit to their earnings. Fact is their price hike is going to raise earnings significantly. The beauty of their business model (and kiosks in general) is that the majority of their costs are fixed. That's why the model beats bricks & mortar retail any day of the week.
ReplyDeletetof - Yes, they were all generally positive on the stock. Good luck on the pullback.
ReplyDeleteKyle/TOF- I couldn't find it.
ReplyDeleteMark - it was a segment on the half-time show
ReplyDeleteGuys, did you see that morning spike to $50 in CSTR? That was my sell limit at $50 getting hit (for the 250 shares I purchased AH yesterday at $47). Seriously. Unbelievable luck on my part with CSTR. I guess I used up all my bad luck in trading earlier this year, getting stopped out of F, CCJ, DANG, REDF, and then TLT puts.
ReplyDeleteTOF, so should I interpret your morning advice not to sell at $50 as an invitation to jump back into it at $48? :)
Mark - they get to it about 5min in...
ReplyDeletehttp://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000053942
DANG - Speaking of DANG, this one just retook the 50SMA.
ReplyDeleteAlso, once I cancelled all my stops on AUMN, it finally started moving up, outperforming GDXJ. Guys, take a look at the 1-month chart of AUMN -- it is sitting on a strong support at $7.30, and with GDXJ making a new high, a thrust up is very likely. Then, take a look at the 2-year chart of AUMN and notice that $7.50 is a major pre-QE2 support level. So it makes a perfect sense to buy AUMN now both for a short-term trade AND for a long-term hold.
ReplyDeleteBB, I hear what you are saying about the lifecycle of a miner. The thing is, AUMN is still continuing exploration on their own properties (so their own momentum should not stop right here), while ECU was treading water for 2 years precisely because they were trying to get Velardena going and there was no excitement in their stock in the meantime. So I doubt there is any more downside left in AUMN. In fact, the current price is an AMAZING buy already (I posted yesterday that out of their $260M market cap they have $120 in cash, so they are given an absurdly low credit for their gold/silver in the ground, which they will soon start producing). So while I can bitch about AUMN going down 60% since the merger with ECU, in retrospect this will turn out to be a gift as my recent purchases at $7.50 will go up many X over 3 years. Assuming, of course, I don't take profits too early, which I probably will :).
David - I could have sold yesterday at $56 but I believe in the business model. They have a streaming deal coming out soon, which should be yet another catalyst for the company. I think they will do over $5 EPS in 2012 (way above estimates b/c of price hike). If I had sold yesterday I would be buying back today. I think it has room to run to $80+
ReplyDeleteNaturally, my sell limit for CADC got hit this morning at $2.22 for the 6000 shares I had. My cost basis was somewhere under $2 -- I am not sure exactly where it was, since I traded it successfully many times over the past year.
ReplyDeleteThe point of this sale, as I wrote yesterday, was not to take profits early, but to reduce my (and my wife's) discomfort from the fact that I borrowed shit loads of money from credit cards, piled up all that money into stocks and THEN got on margin with the broker. If I am investing borrowed funds from credit cards, then I at least owe to myself and to her not to have a margin debit with the brokers...
TOF, let's hope you are right about CSTR. If it starts moving up tomorrow, then I'll make money on the November $50 call I have and will also pocket premium from the 2 November $50 puts I sold short for $3.20 yesterday. If CSTR doesn't rise above $50 by November OpEx, then I will naturally acquire 200 shares at $46.80, when my puts will be assigned to me. So I'll just wait and see what happens...
ReplyDeleteI can't afford to put any more than 200 shares into a long-term CSTR hold for the reasons I wrote above (have to bring my margin debit to 0).
ReplyDeleteDavid- You need to stop attributing your trade results to luck. For the last time: if you're a blog participant, we cover your --- on every trade.
ReplyDeleteI'm actually uncomfortable David is NOT in margin.
ReplyDeleteWell, this helps at little...I just realized Schwab has my cost basis messed up in one account for CSTR. So I actually an UP 1.5K more than I thought ;)
ReplyDelete"I'm actually uncomfortable David is NOT in margin."
ReplyDeleteDon't worry, Mark -- I am still on margin by about $22K. Yesterday I "found" another promotional check from a credit card for $5K, so that will reduce my margin to $17K (and will increase the borrowed funds I piled into the market to about $40K).
So my goal number 1 will be to sell, with profit, $17K worth of stocks so as not to have any margin, and I'll try doing that ASAP. Goal number 2 will be to sell *with profit* $40K more of stocks, so as to be able to return back to credit cards the $40K I borrowed from them. I have one more year to implement the second goal, since all my borrowed funds have a 0% APR until next August or so.
Phew...Good to know David. I was getting a little shaky.
ReplyDeleteDear Trading Gods...Could you please just squeeze CSTR a little? Maybe to 50?
ReplyDeleteBest,
Redbox Boy
Mark - Just hold bro...the stock is going higher.
ReplyDeleteBesides AUMN, another stock that is set to rocket, I think, is ONP. It has built a long flat base for itself over the past month with $2.40 as a floor, then dropped below it so as to run stops but stopped its decline at $2.30, stayed at $2.30 for a week, and is now back above $2.40. Over the past 6 months, ONP had a very high correlation with HAO, and since HAO broke out yesterday to a new higher high after making a higher low after October 4, I think a breakout in ONP is inevitable. It's absurd, however, how thinly traded HAO is. With a bid/ask $2.41/$2.43, I just placed a buy limit order for 5000 shares at $2.43, and only 900 shares got filled before the bid/ask moved to $2.43/$2.45. I ain't gonna chase it -- they WILL bring it down, reluctantly, and him my limit at $2.43 today...
ReplyDeleteFLOW - Open gap to $3.89
ReplyDeleteTRID - Open gap to $0.73
Thanks for the support bro. One good thing, with all this attention, the spread has come in a little!
ReplyDeleteGuys, did you notice that the daily percentage gain/loss data is totally screwed up today on all systems? For example, google shows that TBT is trading now above yesterday's close but at the same time it is down 2.5%...
ReplyDeleteThis is the first time I see it.
ZIP. Nice.
ReplyDeleteDid TBT really have a huge spike down at the close yesterday, as google shows? Did GMO have a similar huge spike down?
ReplyDeleteTRADING ALERT> See new post
ReplyDeleteDavid - "Guys, did you notice that the daily percentage gain/loss data is totally screwed up today on all systems?"
ReplyDeleteYes, there were huge discrepancies in closing prices last night for a large number of securities.
David, from what i can tell about AUMN, the market is assigning almost no value to the huge deposit ECU has.
ReplyDeleteIs there a chance it is uneconomic or some political / environmental issues?
I've looked at Northern Dynasty (NAK) and they've got the largest known gold / copper deposit in the world, but it is inside the Alaska Wildlife Reserve and they think it will take at least 5 years to build a mine, if ever, so it is only valued at about $800 million, but contains over 100 million ounces of gold plus other minerals (total value $400 billion).
Looks like I tricked those computer algorithms that were milking people on the ONP bid/ask spread. My "huge" $10K buy limit order lit a fire under ONP! I got only 900 shares filled at $2.43, but that's OK -- I bought 1000 shares yesterday at $2.41. :) So if ONP takes off now, I wouldn't mind. :)
ReplyDeleteBB, there are no political/environmental issues with Velardena that ECU ever mentioned in any of its communications. As for it being economic, the CFO of ECU told me on the phone in May, I believe, that they finally started generating some cashflow from Velardena, at the throughput of 650 tpd.
ReplyDeleteAUMN said that the recovery rates of ECU were shamefully low, and they have announced a restructuring process for the mine which is supposed to DOUBLE the total silver/gold output from Velardena by the end of 2012 (but will reduce production in 3Q and 4Q of 2011). Since many of the costs associated with Velardena are fixed, they will have a nice positive cashflow from it at that point, using the maximum throughput of 800 tpd available from two existing ECU's mills. AUMN is planning to steadily increase Velardena output in 2012 and stated themselves that they will become cashflow positive in 3Q 2012.
Once AUMN builds the new 2000 tpd mill in 2014, their cashflow will be that much higher...
Did you guys catch the ***TRADING ALERT*** above? New post.
ReplyDelete