Our best buddy Peter Brandt. What I mean about swinging for the fences. I want to bring you all up to date on my present position and opinion of the U.S. stock market.
Here is my trading record since late July in the e-mini S&P futures — prices based on continuation contract with rounding for simplicity.
Short at 1288 on 7/29 — this position remains open. Short at 1255 on 8/2, covered at 1155 on 8/8 (+100 S&P points) Short at 1258 on 8/3, covered at 1121 on 8/9 (+137 pts) Short at 1168 on 8/18, covered at 1161 on 8/24 (+7 pts) Short at 1178 on 9/21, covered at 1089 on 10/4 (+89 pts) Short at 1178 on 9/28, covered at 1114 on 10/4 (+64 pts) Short at 1168 on 10/6, covered at 1175 on 10/6 (7+ pts loss)
My post on October 4 announced that I would be watching the stock market from the sidelines, in no hurry to rush back in. Of course I took at shot (unsuccessfully) today. And, I do remain short one layer from late July. I am willing to ride that back to the starting gate.
But, some of you will say, what about the fat lady — didn’t she sing? My contention from the August 9 low through the September sideways chop was that the low was not in place, that everyone who bought in hopes of a bottom would end up capitulating. I seldom waivered from this position, although it is difficult to remain a staunch bear when markets are rallying.
Then we saw new lows in early October and the fat lady sang — because as I said all along, it would not be over until she sang. That she sang at all, in my opinion, means that the bear market remains intact. My targets are the 2010 and 2009 lows. Will I be right on these targets? Who knows, but the market has not proven me wrong yet. I give all those who got long on the false breakout a ton of credit. Great trade, not my style, but great trade.
'hey mark - what's it gonna take to get you back in the market?'...
About another week. The job I'm finishing is kicking my ass and it looks like I'll lose about $140K on it. I need to get my head clear. This is kind of an interesting time in my life. I'm Fing tired of dealing with my clients, but the problem is, as you know, I get paid well for what I do...most of the time... I need a fucking break.
Yeah, it's a mini Veags, but the other options for what you will need suck. Honestly, it's not as 'bad' as the web site. Normal people really do go there.
Mark Relax buddy.Don't let those rich fucks get under your skin. Take a vacation, hire more subs and raise your rates. In no time Daddy warbucks is going to want that 10,000 square foot rustic getaway, they always do. and you will get the 140K back in spades. Love Bob, 2nds travel agent couldn't hurt either.
When I look back at the charts, a lot of stocks seem to have gotten to prices that made no sense and have bounced back hard. I think this means 2 things:
1. There likely were a lot of redemptions / forced sales around quarter-end. 2. People who were able to be panicked out, are now panicked out. The people who are left are the ones who won't sell at these low prices, regardless of the price action or new owners of the sock. Of these new buyers, some will be looking for a quick flip, but many will be value based buyers who are looking for larger returns.
Gotcha mark. Yeah sounds like a vacation is in order....even if it's just a week long trip to somewhere in Cali.
I instantly have found out why UNG is the death to all traders. My calls were up about $100 at the close yesterday, I see the futures up nicely on a better than expected jobs report...and then I look at /NG and it's down a cool 2.2%. Buying Nat Gas right now is like shorting Gold at $1,200 and saying it just has to go down. No, it doesnt. I pulled up the 5 year chart (actually, it seems to only show like 3 years) on /NG on my Ameritrade app on my phone and that's about the ugliest chart I have ever seen. Literally straight down with no bounce from over $9 to $3.51 right now.
Reminds me of the 40k I lost shorting DELL in the nineties. When 40k was still a decent amount of money. I blame Herb Greenberg- he was always talking to Fleck and then writing up ideas for shorts in his Chronicle column back then.
cp - not sure yet. Right now, there was a spike down to 1158.36 @ 11:20'ish and a bounce up. We might get an Inv H&S and head lower or not. It's Friday and it's lunchtime...
Bear flag CP? On what time frame? On the 5 year monthly chart I'm seeing what I think would be called a bull flag...they tried about 5 times on the monthly chart to break it below the $38 mark (which happens to be the old resistance from 2008).
re: Nat Gas > even though I have a tiny position in this thing, I'm thinking that there is definitely going to be a 10% to 15% bounce in /NG VERY SOON. Its the one time I would probably recommend taking a big position in UNG. It sure looks like it's basically at the capitulation point for /NG. At this point I don't think anyone can operate profitably....which means not only would it probably be a good time to trade UNG, but it also might be a good time to buy and hold it, no matter how broken the ETF seems. If you think about the sentiment of traders/holders of this ETF, its gotten to the point where there is nothing but 100% pessimism. For several years now we have heard that nat gas is the clear alternative for our economy and we have seen investor after investor try to catch the bottom in it. Yet for several years people have gotten wiped out. To me, this is the point where long term investors can make a killing on it. It's like gold and oil at 1999 in my opinion....completely unloved and unwanted.
I think the odds are growing that this summer selloff was nothing more than a fear based one and not based on actual fundamentals. The US economy has actually nicely weathered the turmoil in Europe and Japan and the middle East over this whole year.
NG, you could be right but consider this, gold is becoming more difficult to find and the easy targets have been mined. It also takes a long time to bring mines online. NG has enormous new supply which should act as a dampener to price rise.
Short term anything could happen.
From Gartman:
If crude has some distance to rally, nat-gas has not. Should crude rally $3-$4/barrel or more from the present levels, nat-gas shall be dragged higher in its wake; however, the fundamentals of increasing supplies coming at the nat-gas market are enormous. Perhaps an early onset of a very severe winter might serve the nat-gas bulls well, but otherwise they’ve supply, and even more supply to concern themselves with.
Add Chicago Bridge & Iron „ Under-Appreciated Play on Secular Shift to Natural Gas . . . Shale gas is one of the most important developments in the history of the US energy sector over the past fifty years. Engineering and construction companies, including CBI, are involved in many parts of the shale gas value chain including the planning phase, above well-head separation, extraction, processing, transportation & storage, and end use. This major opportunity should drive stronger than expected earnings growth at CBI, which analyst Steven Fisher rates Buy with a $41 price target. CBI’s large and growing backlog provides improved visibility to earnings growth.
„ . . . and Less Risky Than History Would Suggest In 2008 CBI ran into problems on certain projects in a weak economy and had to cut its dividend. But the company now has a very different risk profile from the one investors remember from 2008. Then CBI’s backlog was 90% lump sum; now it is 60% cost reimbursable. Then CBI had big fixed price projects; today a larger proportion of its fixed project work is in the Steel Plate Structures division (oil tanks) which carry less execution risk than process facility projects. „ Attractive Entry Point Despite these solid and improving fundamentals the stock has declined 33% from its July high on investor concerns about weakening global growth and commodity prices. However, we would need an extended period of sub $70 WTI for a very negative earnings scenario, involving delays and cancellations of projects, to occur.
T3d > If memory serves me correct, there is some skepticism surrounding the actual reserve amounts that Nat Gas companies are stating on their investor presentations. I believe the SEC was inquiring about this. I don't have a take on it, but when I hear every single analyst saying the same thing, that the supplies are just HUGE, it makes me wonder if they've actually done any work on that analysis or if they're just stating what everyone else is stating. You know how that works...
Also, I know there is a Nat Gas Act proposal going through Congress, which might have some impact on the short term/intermediate term price of Nat Gas.
I see that the recent rebound rally is stalled, and since I am deep in the margin right now, I decided to trim some of my long positions while there are still some gains on them.
I just placed a sell stop order at $19.95 for the 100 shares of TBT I reloaded at $19.50 last Friday.
I just finished my breakfast and saw that my sell stop for TBT was executed at $19.95. This completes my second round trip on TBT, for a total of 10% gain (the position size was only 100 shares).
Long MELA 1,000 shs at $5.56. Looks like it's only a matter of time before their skin cancer detection device gets final approval and stock breaks out to old highs.
Needham has a $14 price target on this sucker for what its worth.
Redbox - Once a couple years ago I was in Wal-Mart, I asked the greeter about the RB machines and he told me it's not unusual to see lines there.
I asked him what he thought of the machines and he said they seem to be quite popular and his impression was they make money due to the high traffic, but they don't work too well when some smart-azz reaches behind and yanks out the electrical plug.
I'll make a point of asking the next greeter I see, maybe this weekend...
cp - No, I'm not contemplating the merits of EITHER of these. If my criteria for shorting it (roughly on 1year-daily srsi53 / ema17 intersection > 0.80) then I'm ready based on the head-banging advertisements for it w/in the past few weeks.
"At this point I don't think anyone can operate profitably....which means not only would it probably be a good time to trade UNG, but it also might be a good time to buy and hold it, no matter how broken the ETF seems."
TOF -- this is the most dangerous situation for UNG. It was like this every autumn, when the *near-term* NG futures would be significantly below the production cost, but the January futures would be much more expensive (as they are now). For the next 3 months, the futures can simply stay where they are, and UNG would be continually destroyed. So you should buy into UNG only if you feel that the *January* futures are significantly underpriced and will not stay that way until January.
David - I don't know if UNG is the play here to be honest. It just seems like a broken ETF...my $1,400 worth of calls from yesterday are already underwater by about $700, thus wiping out half of my gains from my SPY calls a few days ago. However, Nat Gas sure seems like it is a good long term buy and hold. Unfortunately, there really isn't a good play on that. ETFs on commodities other than Silver and Gold seem to be terrible in general.
TOF -- take a look at the 5-year SWN chart (almost a pure NG company with a small fraction of liquids). Right now, it seems, is not such a bad entry point...
Q: So you do see light at the end of the tunnel? GDP growth and jobs?
A: Oh, certainly. The answer to the question, "Where will the jobs come from?" is that I don't know – but they will. That's what free markets do – that's what American entrepreneurs do. Create jobs. The job of every politician – the first thing they should ask themselves when they get up in the morning – is, "What can I do to make it easier for entrepreneurs to create jobs in my town, city, state, country? Because that's how we come back from this endgame. As businesses reorganize as new businesses, as industries come back and as new industries are created because we will create whole new industries. We will create whole new ways of manufacturing; there's going to be a wonderful future. That's the book I'm working on right now, "What The World Will Look Like in 2032."
"Still, I believe in the American spirit. New technologies, biotech, nanotech. I truly believe we will find new energy sources. I'm giving my youngest son a car this fall – I will buy a new car and it will probably be the last combustion engine car that I buy. The next car that I buy – seven, eight, 10 years from now –will be an all-electric car. That's a massive retooling that's going to create a number of jobs."
"My hobby is biotech. I believe that before the end of this decade we're going to see announcements about companies curing various cancers; that Alzheimer's will not be something we have to worry about. I expect a cure for liver disease; a cure for cirrhosis of the liver will be announced in the next 12-18 months. There's just one thing after another that we're on the edge of."
So, 2nd_ave, you buy-and-hold portfolio will definitely be higher in 20 years. However, John Mauldin suggests that all the wonderful things that he sees in the future will start happening toward the end of this decade – more on this below.
More on the kind of problems Mauldin expects to see in the near future:
The problem comes in because we're going to have to reduce the deficit by about 1% of the GDP a year in the first year and then do the same the next year and then the next year. We're going to have to do it for 5 or 6 years. Now, that doesn't mean we can't have phenomenal growth in the meantime that will help us bring GDP up even as we reduce the deficit. But we are also going to have to deal, in the deleveraging process, with a couple of recessions because that's what happens. That is what the recent McKinsey Global Institute study that I mentioned in my book made very clear: This is not a normal cyclical, or business cycle recession; it was brought on by too much borrowing, and now we have to repair our balance sheets by deleveraging at the same time that the assets we bought in the boom are falling in value. What's more, empirically, a long period of deleveraging almost always follows a major financial crisis. These deleveraging periods, it's very clear, include both recessions and periods of growth, and we are talking about a five-to-seven year process.
My personal belief is that if we do proactively get our long-term budget issues under control, the bond market will say, "Okay, you're credible and we will buy your bonds, because you have put yourself on a credible path – whether it's through cuts, whether it's through tax increases, however you want to do it – but you have to do it. But you have shown us a credible way to get to the place where the growth rate of your deficit is below the growth rate of nominal GDP."
It will force budget cuts; it will force tax increases of the magnitude that no one is ready to contemplate. We're talking cuts in Medicare, cuts in education, in defense, in spending of all kinds. That would create a depression, a true depression that would last 4-5 years, push unemployment to 20% 25%. And the Fed truly would have to start monetizing debt; there'll be no choice. That's a world in which economic assets get turned on their heads. That's what I lay out in my book.
"It is a mess, and we have years of struggle still ahead of us. But I do know that we get through this, one way or the other. The one thing about this process that we can learn from history is that there is an end to the endgame. We have this marvelous clearing mechanism in capitalism. The markets do get cleared out, asset prices do get cleared out. We've hit the reset button. Those of us of a certain age remember "the blue screen of death." You would just have to unplug your computer from the wall, wait for fifteen seconds, plug it back in, start it back up, and hope you didn't lose too much. If you were smart, you were backing things up because you never knew when it would happen. Well, we're hitting the reset button now, that's the process we're in, all over the developed world. Then we'll come back."
Q: We haven't suffered enough?
A: "No, unfortunately. It typically takes about 3 recessions to really end a secular bear cycle in stocks, and we are getting ready to have that third one. We'll see averages come down further. The good news is that secular bear cycles average about 17 years, and this one started in 2000, so it won't be too long until we're getting ready for the next long bull market cycle. Consider what Japan has gone through. In 1978 and for the next 10 years, the Japanese were beating our brains out and buying every trophy property in the U.S. they could get their hands on. In 1978, unemployment in the U.S. was as high as it is now, inflation was running 17-18%, and no one wanted to hear about stocks as an investment."
Here is what Mauldin says about the other countries:
The euro, if it exists in two years, is going to be a lot cheaper. I said in 2002, when the euro was at 88 cents, that it was going to a buck-fifty and all the way back to a buck in 12-15 years. You could see this coming. The pound is going to parity. The yen, when they start printing – and they will – will go to 125, 150, 175, 200, 250. What's the end? I don't know, but you will buy a Lexus cheaper than you can buy a Kia. And South Korea is not going to like that, just as the Swiss are complaining bitterly. [And the SNB just fired a salvo, setting a floor under its currency.] The Chinese are going to be looking at their largest client, which is actually Europe – not the U.S. – with a currency that has dropped like a rock, while the U.S. is griping and complaining that the Chinese currency needs to rise another 25%-30%.
The only credible rating agency out there is Egan-Jones, and they'd already rated the U.S. double A awhile back. When Sean Egan was on TV the other day pointing out that he thinks the average haircut on Greek debt will be 90%, you could just see jaws drop. Other people were going, "It can't be that bad." But I was sitting there going, "Yes, it can be, it certainly can be." Greece has been in default during 160 out of the last 200 years, so why are we shocked? They have made an art form of defaulting. I've visited Tuscany for two years in a row. I find it a wonderful place to vacation and work from– and I fully expect that the day will come when I will be using lira rather than euros when I visit. I've always said the euro was not a currency, it was an experiment. And we're now seeing how this experiment works. Are the Germans going to pony up? Can the coalition work? Nobody knows.
It's only natural there should be a cure for cirrhosis. God created alcohol for consumption, and as we all know by now- many maladies can be prevented by moderate alcohol consumption. In fact, a future cure for Alzheimer's DEPENDS on finding a cure for cirrhosis, as the cure for Alzheimer's lies in moderate daily doses of alcohol.
No, homo sapiens are meant to drink. We are now on the cusp of a new era, one in which we learn to drink moderately, or even excessively, without damage to the liver.
Alcohol -> It's Bad, You Should Stop -> It's Bad, But Maybe You Can Have a Little -> But What if I want a LOT -> Well That's Really Bad You Need to go in for Therapy -> Well Maybe You Don't Because it could be Helpful, Sort-of -> So Now I can Drink? -> Well Yes Maybe -> Oh now we may be able to protect your liver -> OH Yea Baby, Now I Can DRINK...
(a) Panicked shorts drive the DJIA +100. (b) Back to flat line as they leave the stage. (c) A few newly-minted weak hands drive the index into the red. (d) Strong hands put a floor under the index. (e) Close relatively strong.
Kyle - The only sweetened beverages I drink, except in a pinch, are those based on cane, or beet sugar, with a strong bias towards cane.
"Our body gets confused by artificial sweeteners – the dissociation between sweet taste and calorie intake may put the regulatory system that controls hunger and body weight out of sync, thus sabotaging weight loss plans. A study on rodents showed that those fed saccharin actually gained weight compared to rodents fed sucrose."
guys - we're back to the drawing board about quitting the job and going full time in the biz...kinda scary but i'm completely burnt out of the day job.
stupid questions here but my wife is hoping to work 25 hrs a week. what are the odds i can take care of the baby in the 25 hrs that she is working and still work from home? i mean i don't know anything about what it's like to have an infant. we're looking at daycare but it costs so much damn money for that. we would be paying about what my wife makes after tax so it would be a complete wash.
Sorry to comment so late - my daughter has her wisdom teeth out today.
The Nat gas futures for January are currently under $4.00. If you look at the chart for these, they've been going down for almost 4 years and I don't think I've ever seen January futures at this price (other months, sure, but not January).
If you read the reports from the small - mid energy producers, they are almost all moving away from Nat Gas to Nat Gas liquids (which are priced well) or oil. The remaining Nat gas ones are the real cost-efficient ones and even they are cutting cap-ex. I've been buying into Nat Gas companies for the last year and have done OK mainly because one of them, Open Range, created a service business out of one of their divisions managing frac fluid and I got more than a triple out of it when I sold it.
Playing UNG is a tough bet because of the time decay in the product, so you got to be very correct to make money. A much easier way to play it is to buy a stock and wait.
The purest nat gas large cap I know is ECA, well managed, excellent resources, reasonable dividend, beaten down here. Small caps are more leveraged bets and the ones I own are FAIRF, AXLFF, SDRYF (in Egypt)and DAYFF (income trust paying 13% yield, but perhaps getting close to a dividend cut).
Buying a stock or ETF takes away the time risk of UNG and gives you a lot longer opportunity to be right.
Baby's under say 4 months sleep a lot, but when they want you, they want you. Tough to be working unless you control the time.
After that, they are awake more and you still have be with them pretty much most of the time they are awake. After about 6 months, they can start watching TV or playing with things by themselves, but still, patience is not high with children of this age.
Good luck. Be best if your wife could schedule her work around when the business is slow.
Thanks a lot guys. She's gonna work from 12 to 5 so I would take care of the baby then. Because I would be working from home I would have a flexible schedule and would be able to take care of the baby and work while he's sleeping. The plan would be to grow the business and start up a few other web sites that can generate more than my current salary. I launched another site this year and it's making about $5k a month in sales already (about $1,000 profits) so I'm thinking after I get our main furniture website upgraded then I could do a few of those in a couple of industries and hopefully between all of them replace my salary (and more).
The things I'm really nervous about are: *Will I be able to grow the business and get these other businesses up and running and making enough $$? *Will the economy crash and burn and just kill us? *If the plan doesn't work, I don't really have a fallback plan in the tax industry nor would I want to work in it anymore. I hate it. So I'd have to get a job somewhere else using my web business experience.
We have about 5-6 years of savings assuming she either works part time and we pay insurance on our own or she works another 5 hours a week and get insurance. After thinking about that it seems like it's worth taking the risk...
sorry...make that it would be either 4 years of savings or 5.3 years of savings if she worked 25 hrs and we got insurance on our own or she worked 30 hrs and we got insurance thru her work.
TOF-Here's an idea for you. Put together a good site for high level youth soccer crap. You'd think that would be done, but Patricia complains about all the junk she sees. Those parents also have no problem paying top $ for shit...Trust me. Forget shoes though. Everything else.
"TOF-Here's an idea for you. Put together a good site for high level youth soccer crap. You'd think that would be done, but Patricia complains about all the junk she sees. Those parents also have no problem paying top $ for shit...Trust me. Forget shoes though. Everything else. "
High level youth soccer crap? what does that mean?
I just spent $110 on goalie gloves! But there better than the $60 dollar model. Right! Retail soccer in wee little sizes is a great idea. Most cater to older players where there is a much smaller consumer base.
Well, RB beat me to it. It's kinda strange. All the stuff on line is really cheap. Trying to appeal to the masses, but really missing the true target. Losers like RB and I are obliged to pay top dollar. Just the way it is.
The more I think about this the more I like it. TOF, call me on my cell tomorrow.
Neil is playing in a top level tournament in U18 division there is only 6 total teams. In the U11 level there is three divisions of 8 to 10 teams. times two for each sex. That is 900 players!In one tournament at one age level in phoenix Arizona. Online soccer companies have trouble selling to the wee little ones because no one knows what size their kid is right. A success to any sight would be some kind of reliable sizing system and cheap marketing strategy at these tournaments.
Just talked with my wife. Neil is the only one left from his U11 team that is still playing competitive soccer that we know of. Only two unknowns.It is sad to think of all those soccer moms with nothing to do. Maybe I should reconnect with some of them.
"By Deepak Rangan Almost half of the entire US population is now dependent on some kind of government aid, as per the Census data of Q1, 2010. The exact figure stands at 48.5%.
And almost 46.4% of households will not be paying any Federal tax in 2011, as per the Tax Policy Center. This is worse than 39.9% in 2007 when the economic collapse began.
Put these two together and you see that almost half the US do not pay any taxes and in turn depend on the taxes paid by the rest half of the productive population who are economically independent
This means that only 50% of the population in the US is capable of living entirely independent of any government aid."
tof- Wait for the next Viagra, find a source in Mexico, and sell the product online. That should be good for a few mil before the FDA shuts you down. Let us know when you're ready, and we'll partner with you.
Movie sucked. Who would of known being a hot real life spy could be so boring. Maybe it is because the main villain is named Scooter. Good thing I only spent a dollar :).
Technically, we won today's game 5-4. One ref incorrectly ruled one of my son's goals a no-score for an offsides penalty, which made it officially a tie. Coaches from both sides, however, agree it was a bad call. The little guy scored 4 of the 5 goals for his team. Exciting game, with lots of suspense and close calls.
Hey, maybe I'll just get a bag of Appalachian apples and ferment them myself into a nice stout cider, or three liter of Trump's hooch instead!
"Chicago Chefs Weigh in on Trump Wine
2011_5_9_Trump.jpg AP Photo/Alex Brandon Donald Trump, as part of his strange and meandering plot to take over the world, bought a vineyard in April. Formerly known as Kluge vineyard, the property in Virginia was repossessed by Bank of America in February and bought by Trump in April. What form the vineyard will take under Trump's leadership is unclear - according to Eater, while "he will keep the vineyard's previous owner, Patricia Kluge, on board, Trump's going to change the name of the place. He said, 'It's only Trump. Everything is Trump.'" Restaurant Intelligence Agency asked some local chefs to weigh in with their feelings on Trump wine. The responses? Classic. Steve McDonagh, of Hearty Boys, asked "Is it really from Virginia? I don't believe it. I want to see original certification."
Naha's Carrie Nahabedian joked "I would expect he would only produce and sell jeroboams, since his ego is that big." A jeroboam is a 3-liter bottle of wine, also known as a double magnum. Paul Fehribach of Big Jones was more concise: "Fuck Donald Trump.""
Rented Hanna. Usually new releases are not available at red box. Meaning they are checked out before I get them which usually lead me to checkout lesser known movies that often times are real gems. I always like them better than the big blockbuster or big star movies. That's Why i like REDBOX Review tomorrow.
Yes, everyone in tucson lives next door to a 7-11. One big difference in 7-11s here is that we have trailer trash at the counter instead of people from the Asian sub continent. Just an observation not a value judgement.
Just returned from dinner with colleagues at Brothers (Korean BBQ) on Geary. The kalbi was good, but the pan-fried oysters (in egg batter) was awesome.
I finished 'Hanna' before leaving, and have to say I was a little disappointed. The best films I've watched recently have all been older releases downloaded from NFLX for instant viewing.
I hear 50/50 is a really good movie. We bought a groupon for 2 movies and popcorn for $15 and planned to go then bailed bc I foolishly tried to fix the door handles of my pos car that were looking to sell. Needless to say it's even more pos than before, what with no door panels now
Hanna, Compared to Fair Game it is a masterpiece. Cinematography is great even in non blueray disk, acting decent, unoriginal plot of Genetically altered super spy becoming rouge agent is stale. The implausibility of an nonathletic looking 13year old albino girl constantly kicking multiple bad guys asses 'Bourne Style' sinks the movie to a C-. Better movie would of been sticking with nobel savage aspect and less superhuman ass kicking. Worth $1.00, but not sure it is worth 2 hour of your time.
Personally, I think the indexes gap the shit out of the bears on Friday.
ReplyDeleteI hope so 2nd. I'm just waiting for a buyout of CSTR so I can retire for a couple of weeks.
ReplyDeletehey mark - what's it gonna take to get you back in the market? just curious what you're looking for. you think the bottom is in?
ReplyDeleteOur best buddy Peter Brandt. What I mean about swinging for the fences.
ReplyDeleteI want to bring you all up to date on my present position and opinion of the U.S. stock market.
Here is my trading record since late July in the e-mini S&P futures — prices based on continuation contract with rounding for simplicity.
Short at 1288 on 7/29 — this position remains open.
Short at 1255 on 8/2, covered at 1155 on 8/8 (+100 S&P points)
Short at 1258 on 8/3, covered at 1121 on 8/9 (+137 pts)
Short at 1168 on 8/18, covered at 1161 on 8/24 (+7 pts)
Short at 1178 on 9/21, covered at 1089 on 10/4 (+89 pts)
Short at 1178 on 9/28, covered at 1114 on 10/4 (+64 pts)
Short at 1168 on 10/6, covered at 1175 on 10/6 (7+ pts loss)
My post on October 4 announced that I would be watching the stock market from the sidelines, in no hurry to rush back in. Of course I took at shot (unsuccessfully) today. And, I do remain short one layer from late July. I am willing to ride that back to the starting gate.
But, some of you will say, what about the fat lady — didn’t she sing? My contention from the August 9 low through the September sideways chop was that the low was not in place, that everyone who bought in hopes of a bottom would end up capitulating. I seldom waivered from this position, although it is difficult to remain a staunch bear when markets are rallying.
Then we saw new lows in early October and the fat lady sang — because as I said all along, it would not be over until she sang. That she sang at all, in my opinion, means that the bear market remains intact. My targets are the 2010 and 2009 lows. Will I be right on these targets? Who knows, but the market has not proven me wrong yet. I give all those who got long on the false breakout a ton of credit. Great trade, not my style, but great trade.
'hey mark - what's it gonna take to get you back in the market?'...
ReplyDeleteAbout another week. The job I'm finishing is kicking my ass and it looks like I'll lose about $140K on it. I need to get my head clear. This is kind of an interesting time in my life. I'm Fing tired of dealing with my clients, but the problem is, as you know, I get paid well for what I do...most of the time... I need a fucking break.
2nd- This is the place for your trip...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.montbleuresort.com/
Yeah, it's a mini Veags, but the other options for what you will need suck. Honestly, it's not as 'bad' as the web site. Normal people really do go there.
Mark Relax buddy.Don't let those rich fucks get under your skin. Take a vacation, hire more subs and raise your rates. In no time Daddy warbucks is going to want that 10,000 square foot rustic getaway, they always do. and you will get the 140K back in spades.
ReplyDeleteLove Bob,
2nds travel agent couldn't hurt either.
I just looked at X US STEEL chart. I cannot believe it was under $20! Now what does that price in? I would buy but looks like bear flag on the charts.
ReplyDeleteWhen I look back at the charts, a lot of stocks seem to have gotten to prices that made no sense and have bounced back hard. I think this means 2 things:
ReplyDelete1. There likely were a lot of redemptions / forced sales around quarter-end.
2. People who were able to be panicked out, are now panicked out. The people who are left are the ones who won't sell at these low prices, regardless of the price action or new owners of the sock. Of these new buyers, some will be looking for a quick flip, but many will be value based buyers who are looking for larger returns.
Gotcha mark. Yeah sounds like a vacation is in order....even if it's just a week long trip to somewhere in Cali.
ReplyDeleteI instantly have found out why UNG is the death to all traders. My calls were up about $100 at the close yesterday, I see the futures up nicely on a better than expected jobs report...and then I look at /NG and it's down a cool 2.2%. Buying Nat Gas right now is like shorting Gold at $1,200 and saying it just has to go down. No, it doesnt. I pulled up the 5 year chart (actually, it seems to only show like 3 years) on /NG on my Ameritrade app on my phone and that's about the ugliest chart I have ever seen. Literally straight down with no bounce from over $9 to $3.51 right now.
Boo!
ReplyDelete140k here, 140k there. Pretty soon it adds up.
ReplyDeleteReminds me of the 40k I lost shorting DELL in the nineties. When 40k was still a decent amount of money. I blame Herb Greenberg- he was always talking to Fleck and then writing up ideas for shorts in his Chronicle column back then.
ReplyDeleteSPX -- 1177.05 is the Yearly Standard PP. FWIW
ReplyDeleteSVM - Lightened up a little, with the expectation this morning's gap up from $8.40 will fill.
ReplyDelete$140K - Wow, and I never did get my check for $60K from when the job was being bid...
ReplyDeleteSDS - Looks like I shoulda bought this one when I lightened up on the SVM...
ReplyDeleteSPX -- 1157.76 Daily Demark PP & 1155.16 Daily Floor PP. Again FWIW
ReplyDeleteCSTR - Is that a bear flag?
ReplyDelete"SPX -- 1157.76 Daily Demark PP & 1155.16 Daily Floor PP. Again FWIW "
ReplyDeleteKyle - I'm interpreting that as a potential target for going long...?
cp - not sure yet. Right now, there was a spike down to 1158.36 @ 11:20'ish and a bounce up. We might get an Inv H&S and head lower or not. It's Friday and it's lunchtime...
ReplyDeletecp - sorry meant an Inv C&H...
ReplyDeleteBear flag CP? On what time frame? On the 5 year monthly chart I'm seeing what I think would be called a bull flag...they tried about 5 times on the monthly chart to break it below the $38 mark (which happens to be the old resistance from 2008).
ReplyDeletere: Nat Gas > even though I have a tiny position in this thing, I'm thinking that there is definitely going to be a 10% to 15% bounce in /NG VERY SOON. Its the one time I would probably recommend taking a big position in UNG. It sure looks like it's basically at the capitulation point for /NG. At this point I don't think anyone can operate profitably....which means not only would it probably be a good time to trade UNG, but it also might be a good time to buy and hold it, no matter how broken the ETF seems. If you think about the sentiment of traders/holders of this ETF, its gotten to the point where there is nothing but 100% pessimism. For several years now we have heard that nat gas is the clear alternative for our economy and we have seen investor after investor try to catch the bottom in it. Yet for several years people have gotten wiped out. To me, this is the point where long term investors can make a killing on it. It's like gold and oil at 1999 in my opinion....completely unloved and unwanted.
DEXP.BR - down over 17% today. Hmmmm...
ReplyDeleteTOF - "Bear flag CP?"
ReplyDeleteSorry, I thought today's CSTR action looked like a bear flag.
CSTR - Actually, the buying action following this mornings drop seems like a strong reaction.
ReplyDeleteThat is, a positive reaction to the initial selling.
ReplyDeleteI think the odds are growing that this summer selloff was nothing more than a fear based one and not based on actual fundamentals. The US economy has actually nicely weathered the turmoil in Europe and Japan and the middle East over this whole year.
ReplyDeleteNG, you could be right but consider this, gold is becoming more difficult to find and the easy targets have been mined. It also takes a long time to bring mines online. NG has enormous new supply which should act as a dampener to price rise.
ReplyDeleteShort term anything could happen.
From Gartman:
If crude has some distance to rally, nat-gas has not.
Should crude rally $3-$4/barrel or more from the present
levels, nat-gas shall be dragged higher in its wake;
however, the fundamentals of increasing supplies
coming at the nat-gas market are enormous. Perhaps
an early onset of a very severe winter might serve the
nat-gas bulls well, but otherwise they’ve supply, and
even more supply to concern themselves with.
Add Chicago Bridge & Iron
ReplyDelete„ Under-Appreciated Play on Secular Shift to Natural Gas . . . Shale gas is one of the most important developments in the history of the US energy
sector over the past fifty years. Engineering and construction companies, including CBI, are involved in many parts of the shale gas value chain
including the planning phase, above well-head separation, extraction, processing, transportation & storage, and end use. This major opportunity should
drive stronger than expected earnings growth at CBI, which analyst Steven Fisher rates Buy with a $41 price target. CBI’s large and growing backlog
provides improved visibility to earnings growth.
Per UBS morning expresso
„ . . . and Less Risky Than History Would Suggest In 2008 CBI ran into problems on certain projects in a weak economy and had to cut its dividend.
ReplyDeleteBut the company now has a very different risk profile from the one investors remember from 2008. Then CBI’s backlog was 90% lump sum; now it is
60% cost reimbursable. Then CBI had big fixed price projects; today a larger proportion of its fixed project work is in the Steel Plate Structures division
(oil tanks) which carry less execution risk than process facility projects.
„ Attractive Entry Point Despite these solid and improving fundamentals the stock has declined 33% from its July high on investor concerns about
weakening global growth and commodity prices. However, we would need an extended period of sub $70 WTI for a very negative earnings scenario,
involving delays and cancellations of projects, to occur.
T3d > If memory serves me correct, there is some skepticism surrounding the actual reserve amounts that Nat Gas companies are stating on their investor presentations. I believe the SEC was inquiring about this. I don't have a take on it, but when I hear every single analyst saying the same thing, that the supplies are just HUGE, it makes me wonder if they've actually done any work on that analysis or if they're just stating what everyone else is stating. You know how that works...
ReplyDeleteAlso, I know there is a Nat Gas Act proposal going through Congress, which might have some impact on the short term/intermediate term price of Nat Gas.
I see that the recent rebound rally is stalled, and since I am deep in the margin right now, I decided to trim some of my long positions while there are still some gains on them.
ReplyDeleteI just placed a sell stop order at $19.95 for the 100 shares of TBT I reloaded at $19.50 last Friday.
My opinion- The indexes are not selling off on Europe 'cuts' simply b/c (as BB pointed out earlier), few weak hands remain.
ReplyDeleteI just finished my breakfast and saw that my sell stop for TBT was executed at $19.95. This completes my second round trip on TBT, for a total of 10% gain (the position size was only 100 shares).
ReplyDeleteCBI - Good point, all these new wells dotting the landscape will need collection/storage tanks.
ReplyDeleteLooks like a 'win' for the bulls today.
ReplyDeleteCBI- Hmmm. PT isn't that far away though.
MITK has been dicking around all week. I'd like to see the RSI get below 30.
ReplyDeleteLong MELA 1,000 shs at $5.56. Looks like it's only a matter of time before their skin cancer detection device gets final approval and stock breaks out to old highs.
ReplyDeleteNeedham has a $14 price target on this sucker for what its worth.
TOF- Don't be alarmed, but there wasn't anyone at the Lucky Redbox here when I was there today.
ReplyDeleteshit i might have to sell my stake mark.
ReplyDeleteMark - that's it man...time to short the absolute MF out of CSTR...:^)
ReplyDeleteRedbox - Once a couple years ago I was in Wal-Mart, I asked the greeter about the RB machines and he told me it's not unusual to see lines there.
ReplyDeleteI asked him what he thought of the machines and he said they seem to be quite popular and his impression was they make money due to the high traffic, but they don't work too well when some smart-azz reaches behind and yanks out the electrical plug.
I'll make a point of asking the next greeter I see, maybe this weekend...
CSTR - If you don't like this one, then don't look now but NFLX did much worse today...
ReplyDeleteWe are contemplating the merits between both of these, right?
cp - No, I'm not contemplating the merits of EITHER of these. If my criteria for shorting it (roughly on 1year-daily srsi53 / ema17 intersection > 0.80) then I'm ready based on the head-banging advertisements for it w/in the past few weeks.
ReplyDelete"At this point I don't think anyone can operate profitably....which means not only would it probably be a good time to trade UNG, but it also might be a good time to buy and hold it, no matter how broken the ETF seems."
ReplyDeleteTOF -- this is the most dangerous situation for UNG. It was like this every autumn, when the *near-term* NG futures would be significantly below the production cost, but the January futures would be much more expensive (as they are now). For the next 3 months, the futures can simply stay where they are, and UNG would be continually destroyed. So you should buy into UNG only if you feel that the *January* futures are significantly underpriced and will not stay that way until January.
David - I don't know if UNG is the play here to be honest. It just seems like a broken ETF...my $1,400 worth of calls from yesterday are already underwater by about $700, thus wiping out half of my gains from my SPY calls a few days ago. However, Nat Gas sure seems like it is a good long term buy and hold. Unfortunately, there really isn't a good play on that. ETFs on commodities other than Silver and Gold seem to be terrible in general.
ReplyDeleteTOF -- take a look at the 5-year SWN chart (almost a pure NG company with a small fraction of liquids). Right now, it seems, is not such a bad entry point...
ReplyDeletePlacing a buy limit order for 100 shares of TBT at $19, just to keep the money pump going...
ReplyDeleteFor the optimists out there: here is a link to a recent interview with John Mauldin:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/thoughts_from_the_frontline/archive/2011/10/01/tough-choices-big-opportunities.aspx
Here are some optimistic excerpts from it:
Q: So you do see light at the end of the tunnel? GDP growth and jobs?
A: Oh, certainly. The answer to the question, "Where will the jobs come from?" is that I don't know – but they will. That's what free markets do – that's what American entrepreneurs do. Create jobs. The job of every politician – the first thing they should ask themselves when they get up in the morning – is, "What can I do to make it easier for entrepreneurs to create jobs in my town, city, state, country? Because that's how we come back from this endgame. As businesses reorganize as new businesses, as industries come back and as new industries are created because we will create whole new industries. We will create whole new ways of manufacturing; there's going to be a wonderful future. That's the book I'm working on right now, "What The World Will Look Like in 2032."
"Still, I believe in the American spirit. New technologies, biotech, nanotech. I truly believe we will find new energy sources. I'm giving my youngest son a car this fall – I will buy a new car and it will probably be the last combustion engine car that I buy. The next car that I buy – seven, eight, 10 years from now –will be an all-electric car. That's a massive retooling that's going to create a number of jobs."
"My hobby is biotech. I believe that before the end of this decade we're going to see announcements about companies curing various cancers; that Alzheimer's will not be something we have to worry about. I expect a cure for liver disease; a cure for cirrhosis of the liver will be announced in the next 12-18 months. There's just one thing after another that we're on the edge of."
So, 2nd_ave, you buy-and-hold portfolio will definitely be higher in 20 years. However, John Mauldin suggests that all the wonderful things that he sees in the future will start happening toward the end of this decade – more on this below.
More on the kind of problems Mauldin expects to see in the near future:
ReplyDeleteThe problem comes in because we're going to have to reduce the deficit by about 1% of the GDP a year in the first year and then do the same the next year and then the next year. We're going to have to do it for 5 or 6 years. Now, that doesn't mean we can't have phenomenal growth in the meantime that will help us bring GDP up even as we reduce the deficit. But we are also going to have to deal, in the deleveraging process, with a couple of recessions because that's what happens. That is what the recent McKinsey Global Institute study that I mentioned in my book made very clear: This is not a normal cyclical, or business cycle recession; it was brought on by too much borrowing, and now we have to repair our balance sheets by deleveraging at the same time that the assets we bought in the boom are falling in value. What's more, empirically, a long period of deleveraging almost always follows a major financial crisis. These deleveraging periods, it's very clear, include both recessions and periods of growth, and we are talking about a five-to-seven year process.
My personal belief is that if we do proactively get our long-term budget issues under control, the bond market will say, "Okay, you're credible and we will buy your bonds, because you have put yourself on a credible path – whether it's through cuts, whether it's through tax increases, however you want to do it – but you have to do it. But you have shown us a credible way to get to the place where the growth rate of your deficit is below the growth rate of nominal GDP."
It will force budget cuts; it will force tax increases of the magnitude that no one is ready to contemplate. We're talking cuts in Medicare, cuts in education, in defense, in spending of all kinds. That would create a depression, a true depression that would last 4-5 years, push unemployment to 20% 25%. And the Fed truly would have to start monetizing debt; there'll be no choice. That's a world in which economic assets get turned on their heads. That's what I lay out in my book.
"It is a mess, and we have years of struggle still ahead of us. But I do know that we get through this, one way or the other. The one thing about this process that we can learn from history is that there is an end to the endgame. We have this marvelous clearing mechanism in capitalism. The markets do get cleared out, asset prices do get cleared out. We've hit the reset button. Those of us of a certain age remember "the blue screen of death." You would just have to unplug your computer from the wall, wait for fifteen seconds, plug it back in, start it back up, and hope you didn't lose too much. If you were smart, you were backing things up because you never knew when it would happen. Well, we're hitting the reset button now, that's the process we're in, all over the developed world. Then we'll come back."
ReplyDeleteQ: We haven't suffered enough?
A: "No, unfortunately. It typically takes about 3 recessions to really end a secular bear cycle in stocks, and we are getting ready to have that third one. We'll see averages come down further. The good news is that secular bear cycles average about 17 years, and this one started in 2000, so it won't be too long until we're getting ready for the next long bull market cycle. Consider what Japan has gone through. In 1978 and for the next 10 years, the Japanese were beating our brains out and buying every trophy property in the U.S. they could get their hands on. In 1978, unemployment in the U.S. was as high as it is now, inflation was running 17-18%, and no one wanted to hear about stocks as an investment."
Here is what Mauldin says about the other countries:
ReplyDeleteThe euro, if it exists in two years, is going to be a lot cheaper. I said in 2002, when the euro was at 88 cents, that it was going to a buck-fifty and all the way back to a buck in 12-15 years. You could see this coming. The pound is going to parity. The yen, when they start printing – and they will – will go to 125, 150, 175, 200, 250. What's the end? I don't know, but you will buy a Lexus cheaper than you can buy a Kia. And South Korea is not going to like that, just as the Swiss are complaining bitterly. [And the SNB just fired a salvo, setting a floor under its currency.] The Chinese are going to be looking at their largest client, which is actually Europe – not the U.S. – with a currency that has dropped like a rock, while the U.S. is griping and complaining that the Chinese currency needs to rise another 25%-30%.
The only credible rating agency out there is Egan-Jones, and they'd already rated the U.S. double A awhile back. When Sean Egan was on TV the other day pointing out that he thinks the average haircut on Greek debt will be 90%, you could just see jaws drop. Other people were going, "It can't be that bad." But I was sitting there going, "Yes, it can be, it certainly can be." Greece has been in default during 160 out of the last 200 years, so why are we shocked? They have made an art form of defaulting. I've visited Tuscany for two years in a row. I find it a wonderful place to vacation and work from– and I fully expect that the day will come when I will be using lira rather than euros when I visit. I've always said the euro was not a currency, it was an experiment. And we're now seeing how this experiment works. Are the Germans going to pony up? Can the coalition work? Nobody knows.
'I expect a cure for liver disease; a cure for cirrhosis of the liver will be announced in the next 12-18 months.'
ReplyDeleteDavid!! Howly Cow!! This changes EVERYTHING.
To the bar!!
Sounds like Mauldin's been absorbing my comments through the alcoholic fog.
ReplyDelete2nd- You don't think part of the 'cure' will involve not drinking?
ReplyDeleteIt's only natural there should be a cure for cirrhosis. God created alcohol for consumption, and as we all know by now- many maladies can be prevented by moderate alcohol consumption. In fact, a future cure for Alzheimer's DEPENDS on finding a cure for cirrhosis, as the cure for Alzheimer's lies in moderate daily doses of alcohol.
ReplyDeleteTechnically, 'not drinking' is not a cure. That would be analogous to saying the cure for diabetes is 'not eating.'
ReplyDeleteNo, homo sapiens are meant to drink. We are now on the cusp of a new era, one in which we learn to drink moderately, or even excessively, without damage to the liver.
ReplyDelete2nd - Well that's it then...this long, big 'circle-jerk' is finally closed...
ReplyDeleteEither that, or Mauldin is looking for an excuse to drink.
ReplyDelete2nd- Forgot to post this link for the casino.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.montbleuresort.com/
It's a little too 'Vegas' for me, but it really is the best option for all you require.
Kyle- You've lost me.
ReplyDeleteMark- You did post the link earlier, and I'm checking it out. Thanks.
ReplyDeleteAlcohol -> It's Bad, You Should Stop -> It's Bad, But Maybe You Can Have a Little -> But What if I want a LOT -> Well That's Really Bad You Need to go in for Therapy -> Well Maybe You Don't Because it could be Helpful, Sort-of -> So Now I can Drink? -> Well Yes Maybe -> Oh now we may be able to protect your liver -> OH Yea Baby, Now I Can DRINK...
ReplyDeleteWow, I have no recollection at all of posting that link. They better hurry up with that cure for Alzheimer's.
ReplyDeleteTook the babies out for a spin yesterday...
http://www.mavic.com/en/product/wheels/mountain-bike/wheels/Crossmax-SLR
Sweet!!
CSTR - "head-banging advertisements for it w/in the past few weeks."
ReplyDeleteOkay, I haven't seen any advertisements for it but if I had, it would certainly raise an suspicious eyebrow.
Kyle- Remember when margarine (Trans fat) was the cure all?!
ReplyDeleteCSTR...I haven't seen any adds either. I do see this stupid add 100 times a day with a little girl playing soccer and dishing where mother.
ReplyDeleteMark- Yeah, but there weren't all these different flavors and mixers w/ margarine....
ReplyDeleteAny thoughts on the close guys? Kinda nasty. I left at 12:30 and just got in...I was surprised.
ReplyDeleteAfghanistan - $2B/week
ReplyDeleteSPY weekly flag...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.screencast.com/t/aGyYmC8BJ
Mark - Looks like a roll-over coming, but watch out for that 2nd bounce like after Sept 19th...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.screencast.com/t/84DtIk8X2qrG
"margarine (Trans fat)"
ReplyDeleteOh yeah, hydrogenated vegetable oil + heat => plastic. Not my idea of something wholesome, give me real butter(salted).
Diet Soda: Actually promotes diabetes via weight gain.
Kyle- That would be an ideal spot.
ReplyDeleteCP- Diet soda...OK, how?
Xlnt close.
ReplyDelete(a) Panicked shorts drive the DJIA +100.
(b) Back to flat line as they leave the stage.
(c) A few newly-minted weak hands drive the index into the red.
(d) Strong hands put a floor under the index.
(e) Close relatively strong.
All IMO.
Sleep tight guys....tomorrow
ReplyDeleteKyle - The only sweetened beverages I drink, except in a pinch, are those based on cane, or beet sugar, with a strong bias towards cane.
ReplyDelete"Our body gets confused by artificial sweeteners – the dissociation between sweet taste and calorie intake may put the regulatory system that controls hunger and body weight out of sync, thus sabotaging weight loss plans. A study on rodents showed that those fed saccharin actually gained weight compared to rodents fed sucrose."
http://blog.fooducate.com/2010/01/03/three-reasons-to-rethink-that-diet-coke-youre-about-to-drink/
Ciao Kyle.
ReplyDeleteCP- I asked the question about the diet soda. Thanks for the link.
ReplyDeleteguys - we're back to the drawing board about quitting the job and going full time in the biz...kinda scary but i'm completely burnt out of the day job.
ReplyDeletestupid questions here but my wife is hoping to work 25 hrs a week. what are the odds i can take care of the baby in the 25 hrs that she is working and still work from home? i mean i don't know anything about what it's like to have an infant. we're looking at daycare but it costs so much damn money for that. we would be paying about what my wife makes after tax so it would be a complete wash.
TOF- No problem. For the first few years all the really do is sleep. Are you going to be the furniture business full time of something else?
ReplyDeleteBTW, forget day care at that age. Save the $'s for later when the kids really do benefit being around others.
Don't be foolish. Either you or your wife needs to be with the baby 24/7.
ReplyDeleteSorry to comment so late - my daughter has her wisdom teeth out today.
ReplyDeleteThe Nat gas futures for January are currently under $4.00. If you look at the chart for these, they've been going down for almost 4 years and I don't think I've ever seen January futures at this price (other months, sure, but not January).
If you read the reports from the small - mid energy producers, they are almost all moving away from Nat Gas to Nat Gas liquids (which are priced well) or oil. The remaining Nat gas ones are the real cost-efficient ones and even they are cutting cap-ex. I've been buying into Nat Gas companies for the last year and have done OK mainly because one of them, Open Range, created a service business out of one of their divisions managing frac fluid and I got more than a triple out of it when I sold it.
Playing UNG is a tough bet because of the time decay in the product, so you got to be very correct to make money. A much easier way to play it is to buy a stock and wait.
The purest nat gas large cap I know is ECA, well managed, excellent resources, reasonable dividend, beaten down here. Small caps are more leveraged bets and the ones I own are FAIRF, AXLFF, SDRYF (in Egypt)and DAYFF (income trust paying 13% yield, but perhaps getting close to a dividend cut).
Buying a stock or ETF takes away the time risk of UNG and gives you a lot longer opportunity to be right.
Baby's under say 4 months sleep a lot, but when they want you, they want you. Tough to be working unless you control the time.
ReplyDeleteAfter that, they are awake more and you still have be with them pretty much most of the time they are awake. After about 6 months, they can start watching TV or playing with things by themselves, but still, patience is not high with children of this age.
Good luck. Be best if your wife could schedule her work around when the business is slow.
Whose the corporate sponsor for the "occupy wall st." event?
ReplyDeleteTOF- Patricia took all three of our kids to work with her for the first 2 years at least. No problems.
ReplyDeleteThanks a lot guys. She's gonna work from 12 to 5 so I would take care of the baby then. Because I would be working from home I would have a flexible schedule and would be able to take care of the baby and work while he's sleeping. The plan would be to grow the business and start up a few other web sites that can generate more than my current salary. I launched another site this year and it's making about $5k a month in sales already (about $1,000 profits) so I'm thinking after I get our main furniture website upgraded then I could do a few of those in a couple of industries and hopefully between all of them replace my salary (and more).
ReplyDeleteThe things I'm really nervous about are:
*Will I be able to grow the business and get these other businesses up and running and making enough $$?
*Will the economy crash and burn and just kill us?
*If the plan doesn't work, I don't really have a fallback plan in the tax industry nor would I want to work in it anymore. I hate it. So I'd have to get a job somewhere else using my web business experience.
We have about 5-6 years of savings assuming she either works part time and we pay insurance on our own or she works another 5 hours a week and get insurance. After thinking about that it seems like it's worth taking the risk...
sorry...make that it would be either 4 years of savings or 5.3 years of savings if she worked 25 hrs and we got insurance on our own or she worked 30 hrs and we got insurance thru her work.
ReplyDeleteTake the risk bro. I have total confidence in you. What does your wife do?
ReplyDeleteTOF-Here's an idea for you. Put together a good site for high level youth soccer crap. You'd think that would be done, but Patricia complains about all the junk she sees. Those parents also have no problem paying top $ for shit...Trust me. Forget shoes though. Everything else.
ReplyDeleteI just saw a State Farm commercial about RDC. Chase is also running new adds about it.
ReplyDeleteI do a football pool every year with about 40 people. After 4 weeks I'm in first place with a record of 50 wins and 11 loses....WITH the points!
ReplyDeleteMy God, GET RID of the wife! (kidding!) ;)
ReplyDelete"corporate sponsor for the "occupy wall st." event?"
ReplyDeleteI figure it's GS or JPM, the same old culprits of scam.
The media is saying it's extreme left dems...
CP- From the looks of it, I'd say SBUX.
ReplyDelete"TOF-Here's an idea for you. Put together a good site for high level youth soccer crap. You'd think that would be done, but Patricia complains about all the junk she sees. Those parents also have no problem paying top $ for shit...Trust me. Forget shoes though. Everything else. "
ReplyDeleteHigh level youth soccer crap? what does that mean?
I just spent $110 on goalie gloves! But there better than the $60 dollar model. Right! Retail soccer in wee little sizes is a great idea. Most cater to older players where there is a much smaller consumer base.
ReplyDeleteoh selling anything related to soccer for the little guys and girls? there's gotta be something out there for that, no?
ReplyDeleteWell, RB beat me to it. It's kinda strange. All the stuff on line is really cheap. Trying to appeal to the masses, but really missing the true target. Losers like RB and I are obliged to pay top dollar. Just the way it is.
ReplyDeleteThe more I think about this the more I like it. TOF, call me on my cell tomorrow.
Neil is playing in a top level tournament in U18 division there is only 6 total teams. In the U11 level there is three divisions of 8 to 10 teams. times two for each sex. That is 900 players!In one tournament at one age level in phoenix Arizona. Online soccer companies have trouble selling to the wee little ones because no one knows what size their kid is right. A success to any sight would be some kind of reliable sizing system and cheap marketing strategy at these tournaments.
ReplyDeleteInteresting stuff guys...
ReplyDeleteJust talked with my wife. Neil is the only one left from his U11 team that is still playing competitive soccer that we know of. Only two unknowns.It is sad to think of all those soccer moms with nothing to do. Maybe I should reconnect with some of them.
ReplyDeleteAll right RB...That's the best 'line' ever on TT.
ReplyDeleteCatch you cat's tomorrow. Couple of State cup games.
IVN - "Last Updated : 07 October 2011 at 19:05 IST
ReplyDeleteRio Tinto, Ivanhoe wins Oyu Tolgoi from Monglian government"
http://www.commodityonline.com/news/Rio-Tinto-Ivanhoe-wins-Oyu-Tolgoi-from-Monglian-government-42861-3-1.html
"By Deepak Rangan
ReplyDeleteAlmost half of the entire US population is now dependent on some kind of government aid, as per the Census data of Q1, 2010. The exact figure stands at 48.5%.
And almost 46.4% of households will not be paying any Federal tax in 2011, as per the Tax Policy Center. This is worse than 39.9% in 2007 when the economic collapse began.
Put these two together and you see that almost half the US do not pay any taxes and in turn depend on the taxes paid by the rest half of the productive population who are economically independent
This means that only 50% of the population in the US is capable of living entirely independent of any government aid."
http://www.commodityonline.com/news/Half-the-US-population-feed-on-the-other-half-and-the-recession-has-not-even-begun-42854-3-1.html
My Red box Movie of the evening is Fair Game with Sean Penn and Naomi Watts. Review manana.
ReplyDeletetof- Wait for the next Viagra, find a source in Mexico, and sell the product online. That should be good for a few mil before the FDA shuts you down. Let us know when you're ready, and we'll partner with you.
ReplyDeleteMovie sucked. Who would of known being a hot real life spy could be so boring. Maybe it is because the main villain is named Scooter. Good thing I only spent a dollar :).
ReplyDeleteTechnically, we won today's game 5-4. One ref incorrectly ruled one of my son's goals a no-score for an offsides penalty, which made it officially a tie. Coaches from both sides, however, agree it was a bad call. The little guy scored 4 of the 5 goals for his team. Exciting game, with lots of suspense and close calls.
ReplyDeleterb- Try renting 'Hanna' tonight.
ReplyDelete"Movie sucked. Good thing I only spent a dollar"
ReplyDeleteGet your dollar back: Short the sh*t outta' CSTR! ;)
Hmm, I still haven't gone to get a replacement bottle of cognac... Here I sit drinking coffee with no cognac! ;(
ReplyDeleteHey, maybe I'll just get a bag of Appalachian apples and ferment them myself into a nice stout cider, or three liter of Trump's hooch instead!
ReplyDelete"Chicago Chefs Weigh in on Trump Wine
2011_5_9_Trump.jpg
AP Photo/Alex Brandon
Donald Trump, as part of his strange and meandering plot to take over the world, bought a vineyard in April. Formerly known as Kluge vineyard, the property in Virginia was repossessed by Bank of America in February and bought by Trump in April. What form the vineyard will take under Trump's leadership is unclear - according to Eater, while "he will keep the vineyard's previous owner, Patricia Kluge, on board, Trump's going to change the name of the place. He said, 'It's only Trump. Everything is Trump.'" Restaurant Intelligence Agency asked some local chefs to weigh in with their feelings on Trump wine. The responses? Classic. Steve McDonagh, of Hearty Boys, asked "Is it really from Virginia? I don't believe it. I want to see original certification."
Naha's Carrie Nahabedian joked "I would expect he would only produce and sell jeroboams, since his ego is that big." A jeroboam is a 3-liter bottle of wine, also known as a double magnum. Paul Fehribach of Big Jones was more concise: "Fuck Donald Trump.""
Rented Hanna. Usually new releases are not available at red box. Meaning they are checked out before I get them which usually lead me to checkout lesser known movies that often times are real gems. I always like them better than the big blockbuster or big star movies. That's Why i like REDBOX Review tomorrow.
ReplyDelete4 goals! Pretty impressive 2nd.
ReplyDeleteWoo had her first goal today in a 2-2 tie. Everyone went crazy cause she's so little. Too funny.
RB- Redbox is convenient for you seeing how you live next door to a 7-11.
Yes, everyone in tucson lives next door to a 7-11. One big difference in 7-11s here is that we have trailer trash at the counter instead of people from the Asian sub continent. Just an observation not a value judgement.
ReplyDeleteRB....So true. Not sure why that is here.
ReplyDeleteJust returned from dinner with colleagues at Brothers (Korean BBQ) on Geary. The kalbi was good, but the pan-fried oysters (in egg batter) was awesome.
ReplyDeleteI finished 'Hanna' before leaving, and have to say I was a little disappointed. The best films I've watched recently have all been older releases downloaded from NFLX for instant viewing.
You guys realize you're inspiring me to start digging through my betamax library again, don't you?
ReplyDeleteOkay, here's one: "The Conformist"
"A weak-willed Italian man becomes a fascist flunky who goes abroad to arrange the assassination of his old teacher, now a political dissident."
Now see what you've done!?!?!?
I hear 50/50 is a really good movie. We bought a groupon for 2 movies and popcorn for $15 and planned to go then bailed bc I foolishly tried to fix the door handles of my pos car that were looking to sell. Needless to say it's even more pos than before, what with no door panels now
ReplyDeleteLes posted an interesting SPY chart over at cc...
ReplyDeletehttp://caracommunity.com/sites/default/files/screenhunter_01_oct._09_07.20.gif
Hanna, Compared to Fair Game it is a masterpiece. Cinematography is great even in non blueray disk, acting decent, unoriginal plot of Genetically altered super spy becoming rouge agent is stale. The implausibility of an nonathletic looking 13year old albino girl constantly kicking multiple bad guys asses 'Bourne Style' sinks the movie to a C-. Better movie would of been sticking with nobel savage aspect and less superhuman ass kicking. Worth $1.00, but not sure it is worth 2 hour of your time.
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