People always talk about how the Canadian banks are so stable. Well, one of the main reasons is because they heave really bought into the fee-based model. It's stable income, very low risk and easy to increase profits.
My friend in Washington laughed at how much Canadians pay for banking services and it looks like the US is going down the same path.
My banks account is a full-service, top end account including pretty much all services - the monthly fee is $25.95 per month or you have to maintain a $5,000 cash balance throughout the month. Needless to say, I'm pretty careful about maintaining that balance.
people don't realize this but the large short position in CSTR is related to warrants the company issued. large institutions went long the warrants and hedged with a short stock position.
Bank Fees - Yep, I knew they were coming too! Now BAC ATM machines are going to become high-maintenance until they reduce their new fee or find another mechanism to gouge customers.
I have adjusted my sell limit on my SPY Calls to $5.2. I believe we have upside until 1,140 in the very short term. I think we will then test the 1,100 level again and put in a higher high.
GLD is in what I think they call a bear flag pattern. If it breaks below 155 it could have substantially lower prices in store. I'm assuming that if it does it, it will do it overnight.
I sold 2/3 of my SPY calls at bit early at $4.3 for a sweet 130% gain. Will let the rest ride in case something big comes out of Europe and really gaps us higher.
My question at this point is why Gold and silver (commodities) really were whacked, was it because Bernanke's move out further on the yield curve, or was it b/c of the problems in Europe?
If the move out on the yield curve, than the introduction of a 50yr bond and move further out might cause more pain and even lower commodities prices?
If commodities prices were to fall much more, then economics of production would be squeezed and likewise, supply.
CP > I have no idea but my inclination is to say that people think China growth is done. Copper, they say, reflects this fact. Gold is trapped in one of those wedges between 156 and 162 at this point.
I can't believe how volatile CSTR is. If I wasn't buy and hold on this I would definitely try to take advantage of these swings. It's basically 10%+ every few days.
Ah, I think people were selling that which was liquid to raise cash. Along with forced liquidation of hedge funds which were in trouble, but what do I know.
BTW, long TEVA from yesterday. If you are long term you can still but this and it is a great value. It slightly undercut its 08 lows. CSCO looks like it is finally bottoming.
TOF - I do like CSTR, and I'll definitely be a buyer if this stupid market does crash.
China growth done? I suppose if China tightens, as they have, it's probably intended to slow the economy and/or discourage poor investment choices.
If only the US had that particular problem and during Greenspan's era when we did, had taken appropriate steps! ;)
I'm still a little disappointed in Bernanke's move to raise rates just prior to the financial crisis, which caused so many adjustable rate mortgages to jump. I recall leading into that time, fixed mortgages were being shunned upon. All of the sudden, hoards of homeowners discovered their inability to make mortgage payments, adding to the problems of decaying employment opportunities.
Not everyone can be a rocket scientist all at the same time, some folks need factory jobs assembling ceiling fans or high-speed rail and inter-city rolling stock projects. Ask yourself if the US creates sufficient wealth to service the debt we've amassed and compete on a global basis?
Aside from food, about anything I buy is imported. We're just too good for our own good.
I can travel all over Japan on their electric train system, it must be considerably more efficient than driving a car back and forth to work everyday.
Added another 2 x SPY $116 puts at $2.73. Again, I think the 1,136 to 1,140 area is short term resistance and that we will test the 1,100 again very shortly....probably just a reversal of some gains in fear of Friday's report. I think we still go much higher but it will take a little while with more volatility so why not try to trade it as I'm just sitting here with my CSTR!?
Ok added 2 more SPY puts at $2.65. Now have 6 at about a $2.8 avg. I used up about 2/3 of my profits from the calls Will keep the rest to blow on drinks for the DTers.
Mark - you know, they keep saying that the workforce needs to learn 'new skills'. It's like yea, well we are...just not quite the ones they have in mind... :^)
I just jinxed myself, but today is the first day in a while that I have seen CSTR not trade completely with the market. I think (hope) people are catching on to the story. It's a big time growth/value company.
well there ya go the repatriation tax thing is coming out. that should officially put a floor under this market. as such i will be looking to sell my puts.
the politicians will be throwing out everything they can to goose the economy. i suspect they lower the tax rate on corporate profits as well. i think it's silly to be short/cautious here.
I'm going to hold my SPY puts just in the odd chance that we sell off going into the jobs report on Friday, but that is probably the last time I will buy puts on the SPY for a trade until/unless we get to 1,190
tof - I would be really cautious about projecting 'linearly' the NEWS events into WHAT this market is going to do. It may go the obvious way, but maybe not.
kyle - i just think the 20% drop was obligatory by the market...as in, fine ok you want a bear market? here ya go...here's your bear market. that was the bottom.
they did EXACTLY this in 1990. dropped it 20.01% from high to low. On the close on Monday they dropped it 19.85%
I was about to congratulate tof on his call for SPX 1140 (hey, it was still a great call), then noticed he's now long SPY puts. Well, OK- I don't think being short is a 'safe' play right now, but what do I know.
Mark- I know plenty of drug dealers who do quite well in their late forties/early fifties. They have the connections to sell to an affluent clientele, and the maturity to stay away from the violent side of the business.
2nd - I'm long SPY puts with 2/3 of my profits from the calls. It makes up about 0.25% of portfolio. Quite frankly I'm just bored sitting and watching my CSTR ping pong around.
Kyle - I know this isn't 1990. It's 2011 baby! But my point is that they tend to like to drop it to nice round numbers or drop them specified amounts and then just turn it right around. I've seen it happen way too many times so I'm not gonna ignore the fact that they just dropped it almost exactly 20%, called it a bear, and then completely reversed it. I think the odds of us hitting 1,400 within 4 to 6 months is just as good as the bearish targets I've heard. Nothing is sure at this point in time.
Kyle - I hear ya man...I know it's way different than 1990. There are probably more risks in the economy now. But on the flip side is valuations: in 1990 the S&P was trading at around 16 times earnings versus 11 right now.
CP- I understand if one wraps 'grapes' in several layers of wax + plastic wrap, then peels off one layer each time one needs to take a shit, one is able to transport 12 grapes in reasonably good condition.
Although, I did have an issue with their Demark levels on TNA last Thursday (and I sent them an email about it). Their levels did not match the levels I calculated which were the same levels obtained from
"4:54 (Dow Jones) US steelmakers warned that 3Q could be a weak one for the domestic steel industry, and that is panning out so far if imports are any indication. Permit applications to import steel fell to 2.2M tons in September, down more than 17% from June levels. US steel mills have operated at a fairly steady clip at about 75% of capacity, suggesting US consumers are either using less steel, or leaning on inventories. Look for more clarity later this month when top steelmakers Nucor (NUE), US Steel (X) and AK Steel (AKS) report 3Q results."
4:30 PM Yahoo (YHOO +10.1%), which took off on a report Microsoft (MSFT) is weighing a bid, drops 3.6% AH as Kara Swisher, who broke the first reports of buyout interest, says her sources tell her "Microsoft execs have taken pains to make it clear" they won't be bidding for Yahoo. She adds that much of the current M&A speculation is "being pumped up by bankers."
So I'm listening to Cramer on my Ameritrade Streamer and he's now saying to just trade the market. I listened to him and Kudlow a couple of days ago for the first time in a while and they were both quite bearish. I think it has gotten to the point where the perma bulls now no longer believe in the market's intermediate term potential. Everyone is expecting volatility for a while. I think we might get some more volatility over the next couple of months but the trend I think will be one of slightly higher lows up until next quarter's earnings, which if they're good, will spark a big rally.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15185692 Good Europe overview, but I think a china slowdown is the markets biggest worry. They can print money to fix europe right?
UPERTINO, Calif. --(BUSINESS WIRE)-- We are deeply saddened to announce that Steve Jobs passed away today. Steve's brilliance, passion and energy were the source of countless innovations that enrich and improve all of our lives. The world is immeasurably better because of Steve.
"# 7:38 PM The FDIC plans to release the long-awaited "Volcker rule" next week for big banks. The rule - which seeks to prohibit big banks from most speculative trading and to limit their investments in most hedge funds and private-equity funds - will be outlined in a "proposal" format at its board meeting on October 11. [U.S. Economy, Financials] Comment! # # AAPL 7:37 PM Steve Jobs has died, AP reports Apple (AAPL) has said. Updated 7:40 p.m.: A short statement from Apple's board. [Tech, Breaking News, Top Stories] 9 Comments "
4:57 PM Solid-state drive maker OCZ Technology (OCZ) jumps 10.7% AH after reporting FQ2 earnings. Though results were mixed - revenue of $78.5M (+106% Y/Y) beat consensus by $0.8M, but EPS of -$0.03 missed by $0.06 - OCZ is boosting its FY12 revenue guidance, and now expects to reach its long-term gross margin target sooner than expected. STEC is up 2.4% in sympathy
BB - After I went to cash I spent a week screening through hundreds of stocks, trying to find ones that I felt comfortable with:
(1) valuation (low price to earnings and price to cash flow) (2) history of significant growth (i.e., at least 20% rev & net income growth per year on avg for the past 5 years) (3) prospects for growth (arbitrary but I wanted a reason for potential continued growth) (4) liquid (trades around 100k+ shs per day) (5) and most importantly, an ability to grow in a bad economy
After looking through every stock that came up in my screen I could only find a couple that fit that bill:
1.) IBKC (problem was I thought the odds were it would go lower b/c it's in the bank sector) 2.) MMYT - I LOVE this company, but it's ridiculously overvalued based on current earnings. 3.) CSTR 4.) CTCT - still trying to determine if they have a competitive advantage
If MMYT got down to $16 again I would probably buy it. I'm still on the fence with IBKC / CTCT.
PeterLBrandt, "UNG This is last drive down to final low in Nat Gas Fund. Figure out what you will trade -- options, spreads, ETFs, etc. A low is close."
Wow, worth a position if he is right like he has been with SPY.
Wasn't it in the last year or two Obama promised us BAC wouldn't go bk and shareholders wouldn't get screwed in a government takeover, or something like that? I forget the details of what he said.
Hmm, when do the bankster's "Travel Agents" (FED) administer their next fix, or was that already done using operation twist (buying high-priced long-term T's from bankster owners) and we just don't know about it yet?
"Commerzbank in Germany is down the most at 62%, followed by Bank of America (-60.1%), Soc Gen (-55.1%), Morgan Stanley (-54.6%), and Citigroup (-52.4%). If we look at both CDS and stock price, Morgan Stanley seems to be the biggest loser in the global financial sector so far in 2011. "
"UNG This is last drive down to final low in Nat Gas Fund. Figure out what you will trade -- options, spreads, ETFs, etc. A low is close."
ummm...there's gotta be a better way to trade nat gas, no? I've watched this thing for like 2 years and seen nothing but trader after trader lose money on the long side with this thing. it's a broken ETF no?
Peter Brandt: He said he did not have time to go into it but from what I know from his methodology he is looking at a Nat Gas futures chart in a weekly or monthly time frame and likes a big long multi year base to create energy for a big move. He admits to being right only 40 % of the time, but looks for wins with a 20 to 1 risk ratio to off set his high number of losses on his picks. Basically he swings for the fences and makes fun of scalpers.
UNG - I remember now, definitely not a B&H, if I understand correctly, rolling forward futures is expensive if the flow is upstream.
So maybe the flow is downstream now, you'd have to look at how the futures are aligned, I guess, as opposed to looking at the chart.
Then there's an NG ETN isn't there, that holds some kind of straddle between months?
WPRT/NG - This may have something to do with an congressional NG transportation bill, and we all know how congress is supposedly sitting on pins and needles?
I read recently where Pickens was pleading with NG producers recently to stop drilling and flooding the market...
UNG is a poorly constructed ETF which losses money because of having to constantly roll futures forward. It's gone from $125 in July of 2008 to $8.75 now, down 93% whereas Nat Gas (Jan, 2102 contract) has gone from $11.50 to $4.05, down 65%.
And if you think it is because UNG provides leverage, it is not. UNG was created at the end of April 2007 and was around $102 and went up to $125 at the peak or up 23%. Nat Gas actually went up 31%.
You are playing a game with the odds stacked against you with UNG. If you want to play Nat Gas, either open use a futures account and get full upside and less downside or, what I would recommend, buy a beaten up Nat Gas producer - that way you get the upside leverage and don't have to worry about the time decay or perfectly timing the move.
Or, if you don't want to pick an individual Nat Gas company, you could take a look at FCG. Haven't looked at it in a while, but it seemed to track Nat Gas prices better than UNG in the past.
I bought 100 UNG $9 Calls expiring Oct 22 at $0.14. I'm doing it strictly because someone that knows a lot more than I do about the technical aspects of the market is very bullish on it. Yep, no other reason. I'm a lemming.
PM's - So I think it's safe to conclude PM's first reaction to threats of deflation will always result initially, in lower prices as flight from one currency to another occurs.
The misfortune of currency slings and arrows effects us all, unfortunately.
CSTR - Looks really good to me, I've seen the value there from way back when the company was just starting in the DVD rental business and the machines were privately owned.
PM's - The biggist problem I see with this market is the paper market is so much larger than the physical market, a great majority of people trading this stuff aren't interested in taking delivery.
This is why I chose to trade silver, because of it's connection to industrial demand in addition to it's 5,000 year history as a currency.
Isolating a producer that you know can deliver into almost any market he chooses is a major accomplishment.
CP > My 6 month price target is $80 on CSTR...that's based on two blow out quarters in a row, bringing next year's estimates up to $5/share. 16 times earnings is still cheap for a company throwing off as much cash flow as they are.
CSTR - TOF, I see what you mean. Also, the entire world doesn't hate, and thus isn't attempting to short CSTR. CSTR poses no threat to the entire financial system... ;)
CP > Yes, CSTR is very consumer friendly. It even allows you to save money.
Big picture, CSTR's business model is changing the bricks & mortar industry in a different, yet similar way that the internet did. It's a low overhead, low maintenance business. They have tons of other ideas in the pipeline as well, so it's not just a Redbox / Coinstar business. Two of the interesting ones that I wonder if they will catch traction:
Gizmo > Kiosk that allows you to buy refurbished electronics.
Coffee Kiosk > Sells Seattle's best coffee, freshly brewed, right out of the kiosk.
dudes - just based on charts, the hang seng is looking pretty damn similar to the nikkei from the early nineties. if you follow the bounce in the nikkei from august of 91, the bounce stuck for about 2 to 3 months. that was a great time to get short the nikkei. i suspect with copper dropping the way it did, the negativity surrounding the chinese market could very well return after this bounce runs its course. so perhaps toward the end of the year we should be looking to short FXI....
China - I'm not sure what to think, but I suspect they try to paint a negative picture in hopes they get better prices.
Just my observation, and basic understanding/experience of/with Asian culture.
When working with the Japanese, they played this comical game where they knew their Asian customers would demand heavy discounts, so they would come to the table with grossly inflated prices.
Just sayin', and note that supposedly China hasn't bought copper yet(while the price was low) but is expected to next week.
I tend to think we're just exiting some kind of BS bargaining cycle, while it's entirely possible the BS session is far from over.
Copper under $3? I think it unlikely for any period of time, but of course I've been wrong before too... Picking bottoms is hard to do when you're not running the show and those that do have infinite smoke-screen mechanisms at their disposal. It's nearly impossible for the little guy to differentiate truth from fiction in a forward looking micro perspective.
Let's just say the world hasn't ended, and then work from there? Return to the mean/longer trend stuff...?
I say this is a BS smokescreen to keep bottom pickers at bay:
"The buzz is that when the Chinese return from their break, traders will hold back any serious buying until the red metal descends to $6,000 per metric ton ($2.72/lb)."
We'll soon see, I guess, and I wouldn't put it past the Chinese to paint charts, etc., but prices are already low here.
"How the euro heated up the borrowing-fueled economies of member states. Where Greece got its billions from. How the growth miracle failed to materialize. How the Germans betrayed the rules of the EU and benefited from the euro zone.":
Neckline is $40 and head is $67? The only way out of that one is if it resolves to an continuation H&S pattern, else the target is ~$13.00ish?
ReplyDeleteHuge short float, too. ;)
I bet that gold bear flag does resolve to the downside if all these H&S patterns materialize, silver will crater too...
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-geezers-give-the-best-investment-advice-2011-10-05
ReplyDeleteGet ready for more and more banks fees.
ReplyDeletePeople always talk about how the Canadian banks are so stable. Well, one of the main reasons is because they heave really bought into the fee-based model. It's stable income, very low risk and easy to increase profits.
My friend in Washington laughed at how much Canadians pay for banking services and it looks like the US is going down the same path.
My banks account is a full-service, top end account including pretty much all services - the monthly fee is $25.95 per month or you have to maintain a $5,000 cash balance throughout the month. Needless to say, I'm pretty careful about maintaining that balance.
people don't realize this but the large short position in CSTR is related to warrants the company issued. large institutions went long the warrants and hedged with a short stock position.
ReplyDeleteBank Fees - Yep, I knew they were coming too! Now BAC ATM machines are going to become high-maintenance until they reduce their new fee or find another mechanism to gouge customers.
ReplyDeleteTZA - Placing stink bid @ $40...
ReplyDeleteDEXB.BR +8.85%...
ReplyDeleteI have adjusted my sell limit on my SPY Calls to $5.2. I believe we have upside until 1,140 in the very short term. I think we will then test the 1,100 level again and put in a higher high.
ReplyDeleteI just noticed gold is at 1619. What happened to 2000?
ReplyDelete2nd - $2000 gold is the forecast for Thanksgiving.
ReplyDeleteGLD is in what I think they call a bear flag pattern. If it breaks below 155 it could have substantially lower prices in store. I'm assuming that if it does it, it will do it overnight.
ReplyDeleteI sold 2/3 of my SPY calls at bit early at $4.3 for a sweet 130% gain. Will let the rest ride in case something big comes out of Europe and really gaps us higher.
Nice job with the calls TOF!
ReplyDeleteThanks Mark. I think 1,136 to 1,140 is a key resistance area short term.
ReplyDeleteBy the way, take a look at the CAC and DAX. Looks like they're forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern.
I think there are decent odds we will be 50% higher within 3 years. I wonder how many people believe that? Maybe 5%?
ReplyDeleteMy question at this point is why Gold and silver (commodities) really were whacked, was it because Bernanke's move out further on the yield curve, or was it b/c of the problems in Europe?
ReplyDeleteIf the move out on the yield curve, than the introduction of a 50yr bond and move further out might cause more pain and even lower commodities prices?
If commodities prices were to fall much more, then economics of production would be squeezed and likewise, supply.
CP > I have no idea but my inclination is to say that people think China growth is done. Copper, they say, reflects this fact. Gold is trapped in one of those wedges between 156 and 162 at this point.
ReplyDeleteI can't believe how volatile CSTR is. If I wasn't buy and hold on this I would definitely try to take advantage of these swings. It's basically 10%+ every few days.
Ah, I think people were selling that which was liquid to raise cash. Along with forced liquidation of hedge funds which were in trouble, but what do I know.
ReplyDeleteBTW, long TEVA from yesterday. If you are long term you can still but this and it is a great value. It slightly undercut its 08 lows. CSCO looks like it is finally bottoming.
ReplyDeleteRed or Black? place your bets.
SU - Nice move there today.
ReplyDeleteTZA - Okay, canceling the $40 stink bid...
TOF - I do like CSTR, and I'll definitely be a buyer if this stupid market does crash.
ReplyDeleteChina growth done? I suppose if China tightens, as they have, it's probably intended to slow the economy and/or discourage poor investment choices.
If only the US had that particular problem and during Greenspan's era when we did, had taken appropriate steps! ;)
I'm still a little disappointed in Bernanke's move to raise rates just prior to the financial crisis, which caused so many adjustable rate mortgages to jump. I recall leading into that time, fixed mortgages were being shunned upon. All of the sudden, hoards of homeowners discovered their inability to make mortgage payments, adding to the problems of decaying employment opportunities.
Not everyone can be a rocket scientist all at the same time, some folks need factory jobs assembling ceiling fans or high-speed rail and inter-city rolling stock projects. Ask yourself if the US creates sufficient wealth to service the debt we've amassed and compete on a global basis?
Aside from food, about anything I buy is imported. We're just too good for our own good.
I can travel all over Japan on their electric train system, it must be considerably more efficient than driving a car back and forth to work everyday.
We'll see...
I sold my remaining SPY calls at $4.81. S&P is right near my target of 1,136.
ReplyDeleteI also bought 2 SPY $116 puts at $2.99 just to trade my thinking on the short term moves in the market...I think we test 1,110 tomorrow/friday.
Added another 2 x SPY $116 puts at $2.73. Again, I think the 1,136 to 1,140 area is short term resistance and that we will test the 1,100 again very shortly....probably just a reversal of some gains in fear of Friday's report. I think we still go much higher but it will take a little while with more volatility so why not try to trade it as I'm just sitting here with my CSTR!?
ReplyDeleteOk added 2 more SPY puts at $2.65. Now have 6 at about a $2.8 avg. I used up about 2/3 of my profits from the calls Will keep the rest to blow on drinks for the DTers.
ReplyDeleteTOF- I'll have one!
ReplyDelete2000 SDS @ 25.05
ReplyDeleteMark - Yep, SPX working against 1139, TZA holding above 48.25...
ReplyDeleteSDS off @ 25.32. I'll take the 500 bucks.
ReplyDeleteha nice mark! i was just wondering how long you would hold that.
ReplyDeleteNice trade.
ReplyDeleteKyle- Been paper trading the past few weeks for scalping again. In a few weeks it will be all the income I have coming in.
ReplyDeleteSPY/QQQ...I suspect we'll get another shot at their pivots.
ReplyDeleteMark - you know, they keep saying that the workforce needs to learn 'new skills'. It's like yea, well we are...just not quite the ones they have in mind... :^)
ReplyDeleteMSFT rumor about YHOO might make things tricky.
ReplyDeleteKyle- Yeah, at my age and background I'm basically unemployable.
ReplyDeleteMark - You and me both bubba...
ReplyDeleteCara just posted this 'financial company consolidation' chart. I recall seeing a very similar Defense company consolidation chart a few years ago...
http://caracommunity.com/sites/default/files/hbb.gif
Mark - You should've rinsed and repeated with the 114 SPY resistance level. they can't bust it through.
ReplyDeleteThat's a crazy chart Kyle.
ReplyDeleteTOF- I'm looking for SPY pivot at 114.13. Almost got it on MSFT...But now they're selling it already.
I just jinxed myself, but today is the first day in a while that I have seen CSTR not trade completely with the market. I think (hope) people are catching on to the story. It's a big time growth/value company.
ReplyDeletewell there ya go the repatriation tax thing is coming out. that should officially put a floor under this market. as such i will be looking to sell my puts.
ReplyDeletethe politicians will be throwing out everything they can to goose the economy. i suspect they lower the tax rate on corporate profits as well. i think it's silly to be short/cautious here.
ReplyDeleteI'm going to hold my SPY puts just in the odd chance that we sell off going into the jobs report on Friday, but that is probably the last time I will buy puts on the SPY for a trade until/unless we get to 1,190
ReplyDeleteTOF- I agree with all of the above....AFTER one more push lower :)))
ReplyDeletetof - I would be really cautious about projecting 'linearly' the NEWS events into WHAT this market is going to do. It may go the obvious way, but maybe not.
ReplyDeleteHRBN - Looks like an inverse H&S breakout?
ReplyDeletekyle - i just think the 20% drop was obligatory by the market...as in, fine ok you want a bear market? here ya go...here's your bear market. that was the bottom.
ReplyDeletethey did EXACTLY this in 1990. dropped it 20.01% from high to low. On the close on Monday they dropped it 19.85%
I was about to congratulate tof on his call for SPX 1140 (hey, it was still a great call), then noticed he's now long SPY puts. Well, OK- I don't think being short is a 'safe' play right now, but what do I know.
ReplyDeleteMark- I know plenty of drug dealers who do quite well in their late forties/early fifties. They have the connections to sell to an affluent clientele, and the maturity to stay away from the violent side of the business.
ReplyDeletetof - this isn't 1990 and I don't think the path is going to be that straight-forward...JMHO
ReplyDeletejesse sounds like a reliable supplier, and Kyle and I will be first in line, bro.
ReplyDelete2nd - is that Jesse Livermore ur referring to???
ReplyDeleteSVM, JJG showed some bounce today...
2nd - I'm long SPY puts with 2/3 of my profits from the calls. It makes up about 0.25% of portfolio. Quite frankly I'm just bored sitting and watching my CSTR ping pong around.
ReplyDeleteKyle - I know this isn't 1990. It's 2011 baby! But my point is that they tend to like to drop it to nice round numbers or drop them specified amounts and then just turn it right around. I've seen it happen way too many times so I'm not gonna ignore the fact that they just dropped it almost exactly 20%, called it a bear, and then completely reversed it. I think the odds of us hitting 1,400 within 4 to 6 months is just as good as the bearish targets I've heard. Nothing is sure at this point in time.
2nd - "I know plenty of drug dealers"
ReplyDeleteSo who's your "travel agent"?
tof - maybe we just think on different time-frames
ReplyDeleteI'm trying to be more disciplined and think in terms of levels:
1147.35 Weekly Demark PP
1152.78 Weekly Floor PP
1158.31 Monthly Floor PP
Let's just see how these levels are addressed.
It's 2011?? Crap, I'm late...
ReplyDeleteKyle- Where are your PP generated?
ReplyDeleteKyle - I hear ya man...I know it's way different than 1990. There are probably more risks in the economy now. But on the flip side is valuations: in 1990 the S&P was trading at around 16 times earnings versus 11 right now.
ReplyDeleteTahoe casinos- anyone have a recommendation?
ReplyDeleteCP- I understand if one wraps 'grapes' in several layers of wax + plastic wrap, then peels off one layer each time one needs to take a shit, one is able to transport 12 grapes in reasonably good condition.
ReplyDeleteMark - I'm getting them from Stockcharts PP overlays...
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:pivot_points
Although, I did have an issue with their Demark levels on TNA last Thursday (and I sent them an email about it). Their levels did not match the levels I calculated which were the same levels obtained from
http://www.earnforex.com/pivot-points-calculator
"4:54 (Dow Jones) US steelmakers warned that 3Q could be a weak one for the domestic steel industry, and that is panning out so far if imports are any indication. Permit applications to import steel fell to 2.2M tons in September, down more than 17% from June levels. US steel mills have operated at a fairly steady clip at about 75% of capacity, suggesting US consumers are either using less steel, or leaning on inventories. Look for more clarity later this month when top steelmakers Nucor (NUE), US Steel (X) and AK Steel (AKS) report 3Q results."
ReplyDeleteDrinking Topics, Drug Topics, whatever.
ReplyDeleteCasinos...To stay or just gamble?
ReplyDeleteMark - Some Levels I'm looking at...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.screencast.com/t/GUrEa6izR
4:30 PM Yahoo (YHOO +10.1%), which took off on a report Microsoft (MSFT) is weighing a bid, drops 3.6% AH as Kara Swisher, who broke the first reports of buyout interest, says her sources tell her "Microsoft execs have taken pains to make it clear" they won't be bidding for Yahoo. She adds that much of the current M&A speculation is "being pumped up by bankers."
ReplyDeleteSo I'm listening to Cramer on my Ameritrade Streamer and he's now saying to just trade the market. I listened to him and Kudlow a couple of days ago for the first time in a while and they were both quite bearish. I think it has gotten to the point where the perma bulls now no longer believe in the market's intermediate term potential. Everyone is expecting volatility for a while. I think we might get some more volatility over the next couple of months but the trend I think will be one of slightly higher lows up until next quarter's earnings, which if they're good, will spark a big rally.
ReplyDelete"She adds that much of the current M&A speculation is "being pumped up by bankers." "
ReplyDeleteAt what point does the SEC step in and stop this nonsense?
Mark- I'd be staying a couple of nights, so accomodations + dining + casino atmosphere. Maybe even an arcade for the little guy.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15185692
ReplyDeleteGood Europe overview, but I think a china slowdown is the markets biggest worry. They can print money to fix europe right?
BC - He's been real quiet lately after getting his butt spanked on SVM, wonder if he's still in?!?!?
ReplyDeleteUPERTINO, Calif. --(BUSINESS WIRE)-- We are deeply saddened to announce that Steve Jobs passed away today.
ReplyDeleteSteve's brilliance, passion and energy were the source of countless innovations that enrich and improve all of our lives. The world is immeasurably better because of Steve.
Vad just posted that Steve Jobs has died on ST
ReplyDeleteSteve Jobs Died?
ReplyDelete"#
7:38 PM The FDIC plans to release the long-awaited "Volcker rule" next week for big banks. The rule - which seeks to prohibit big banks from most speculative trading and to limit their investments in most hedge funds and private-equity funds - will be outlined in a "proposal" format at its board meeting on October 11. [U.S. Economy, Financials] Comment!
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AAPL
7:37 PM Steve Jobs has died, AP reports Apple (AAPL) has said. Updated 7:40 p.m.: A short statement from Apple's board. [Tech, Breaking News, Top Stories] 9 Comments "
TOF, if you are bored, the other thing you could do is try and find another 4 CSTR's - always good to have some diversification.
ReplyDelete4:57 PM Solid-state drive maker OCZ Technology (OCZ) jumps 10.7% AH after reporting FQ2 earnings. Though results were mixed - revenue of $78.5M (+106% Y/Y) beat consensus by $0.8M, but EPS of -$0.03 missed by $0.06 - OCZ is boosting its FY12 revenue guidance, and now expects to reach its long-term gross margin target sooner than expected. STEC is up 2.4% in sympathy
ReplyDeleteBB - After I went to cash I spent a week screening through hundreds of stocks, trying to find ones that I felt comfortable with:
ReplyDelete(1) valuation (low price to earnings and price to cash flow)
(2) history of significant growth (i.e., at least 20% rev & net income growth per year on avg for the past 5 years)
(3) prospects for growth (arbitrary but I wanted a reason for potential continued growth)
(4) liquid (trades around 100k+ shs per day)
(5) and most importantly, an ability to grow in a bad economy
After looking through every stock that came up in my screen I could only find a couple that fit that bill:
1.) IBKC (problem was I thought the odds were it would go lower b/c it's in the bank sector)
2.) MMYT - I LOVE this company, but it's ridiculously overvalued based on current earnings.
3.) CSTR
4.) CTCT - still trying to determine if they have a competitive advantage
If MMYT got down to $16 again I would probably buy it. I'm still on the fence with IBKC / CTCT.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304447804576410753210811910.html?mod=rss_whats_news_us_business
ReplyDeleteGreat obit tribute on S Jobs. Free.
PeterLBrandt,
ReplyDelete"UNG This is last drive down to final low in Nat Gas Fund. Figure out what you will trade -- options, spreads, ETFs, etc. A low is close."
Wow, worth a position if he is right like he has been with SPY.
RB - Does he say why? I see nothing in technicals.
ReplyDeleteWasn't it in the last year or two Obama promised us BAC wouldn't go bk and shareholders wouldn't get screwed in a government takeover, or something like that? I forget the details of what he said.
ReplyDeleteHmm, when do the bankster's "Travel Agents" (FED) administer their next fix, or was that already done using operation twist (buying high-priced long-term T's from bankster owners) and we just don't know about it yet?
"Commerzbank in Germany is down the most at 62%, followed by Bank of America (-60.1%), Soc Gen (-55.1%), Morgan Stanley (-54.6%), and Citigroup (-52.4%). If we look at both CDS and stock price, Morgan Stanley seems to be the biggest loser in the global financial sector so far in 2011. "
UNG - This chart looks like it's still got some downside left in it to my untrained eyes:
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=UNG&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p99295968853&a=217994610&r=7 736
This copper chart is pinched tightly, but of course fundamentals decide the when and where of destination:
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$copper&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p99295968853&a=217994610&r=7 736
"UNG This is last drive down to final low in Nat Gas Fund. Figure out what you will trade -- options, spreads, ETFs, etc. A low is close."
ReplyDeleteummm...there's gotta be a better way to trade nat gas, no? I've watched this thing for like 2 years and seen nothing but trader after trader lose money on the long side with this thing. it's a broken ETF no?
What is sentiment like at bottoms? No one wants anything to do with the asset. That's pretty much what sentiment feels like with regard to UNG.
ReplyDeletePeter Brandt: He said he did not have time to go into it but from what I know from his methodology he is looking at a Nat Gas futures chart in a weekly or monthly time frame and likes a big long multi year base to create energy for a big move. He admits to being right only 40 % of the time, but looks for wins with a 20 to 1 risk ratio to off set his high number of losses on his picks. Basically he swings for the fences and makes fun of scalpers.
ReplyDeleteOf course, UNG has earned that kind of sentiment. It's lost over 90% of its value since I last traded the ETF several years ago.
ReplyDeleteI should say 'since I last seriously traded it.'
ReplyDeleteUNG - I remember now, definitely not a B&H, if I understand correctly, rolling forward futures is expensive if the flow is upstream.
ReplyDeleteSo maybe the flow is downstream now, you'd have to look at how the futures are aligned, I guess, as opposed to looking at the chart.
Then there's an NG ETN isn't there, that holds some kind of straddle between months?
WPRT/NG - This may have something to do with an congressional NG transportation bill, and we all know how congress is supposedly sitting on pins and needles?
I read recently where Pickens was pleading with NG producers recently to stop drilling and flooding the market...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZFZrNSa3b8g&list=FL8sJ2-EB07Rc2iCo5lxysqQ&index=1
ReplyDeleteYep. Everybody just loathes precious metals and they love their electronic gadgets...
ReplyDeleteUNG: there is still a strong contango out there for NG futures:
ReplyDeleteNov: $3.56,
Dec: $3.88,
Jan: $4.05
I would suggest to wait until UNG starts reflecting January futures and contango disappears before getting into it.
But then, why buy into UNG when we have AUMN? :) Or CSTR?
Folks, I think you should pay attention to this:
ReplyDeletehttp://brucekrasting.blogspot.com/2011/10/big-mortgage-refi-ms-chimes-in.html
What are your thoughts about the effects of this major mortgage ReFi?
UNG is a poorly constructed ETF which losses money because of having to constantly roll futures forward. It's gone from $125 in July of 2008 to $8.75 now, down 93% whereas Nat Gas (Jan, 2102 contract) has gone from $11.50 to $4.05, down 65%.
ReplyDeleteAnd if you think it is because UNG provides leverage, it is not. UNG was created at the end of April 2007 and was around $102 and went up to $125 at the peak or up 23%. Nat Gas actually went up 31%.
You are playing a game with the odds stacked against you with UNG. If you want to play Nat Gas, either open use a futures account and get full upside and less downside or, what I would recommend, buy a beaten up Nat Gas producer - that way you get the upside leverage and don't have to worry about the time decay or perfectly timing the move.
Or, if you don't want to pick an individual Nat Gas company, you could take a look at FCG. Haven't looked at it in a while, but it seemed to track Nat Gas prices better than UNG in the past.
ReplyDeleteMan, it's really whippy this morning.
ReplyDeleteI think there's a good chance we test the 1,120 area again...perhaps today.
ReplyDeleteClosed my SPY puts for $300 loss...oh well.
ReplyDeleteWaiting to buy calls if we get to 1,120
David - There are all kinds of mortgage refi ideas floating around out there, I expect something is coming.
ReplyDeleteRecently I heard of an interesting idea about rental income tax breaks...
Ok I'm a fool:
ReplyDeleteI bought 100 UNG $9 Calls expiring Oct 22 at $0.14. I'm doing it strictly because someone that knows a lot more than I do about the technical aspects of the market is very bullish on it. Yep, no other reason. I'm a lemming.
By the way, CSTR anyone?
PM's - So I think it's safe to conclude PM's first reaction to threats of deflation will always result initially, in lower prices as flight from one currency to another occurs.
ReplyDeleteThe misfortune of currency slings and arrows effects us all, unfortunately.
CSTR - Looks really good to me, I've seen the value there from way back when the company was just starting in the DVD rental business and the machines were privately owned.
ReplyDeleteMovie streaming wasn't offered at that time.
TCK - Rockin' pretty good today...
ReplyDeleteSPX - we're right at some key levels mentioned yday...
ReplyDelete1147.35 Weekly Demark PP
1152.78 Weekly Floor PP
1158.31 Monthly Floor PP
PM's - The biggist problem I see with this market is the paper market is so much larger than the physical market, a great majority of people trading this stuff aren't interested in taking delivery.
ReplyDeleteThis is why I chose to trade silver, because of it's connection to industrial demand in addition to it's 5,000 year history as a currency.
Isolating a producer that you know can deliver into almost any market he chooses is a major accomplishment.
And Obama is about to speak on the jobs bill...
ReplyDelete"Our economy needs a jolt today", especially if Europe continues to flounder.
ReplyDelete"Economists agree with Obama."
"Bridges are falling apart." I agree, stop salting them so heavily and use construction materials that don't corrode so rapidly (molybdenum).
I've heard numerous times, corporate America wants to see moves to increase demand before they will resume hiring.
tof- It was only foolish to short the markets. I actually like the NGas play.
ReplyDeleteCSTR - I see at least a 20% gain in this chart, if you feel the open gap can close.
ReplyDeleteCP > My 6 month price target is $80 on CSTR...that's based on two blow out quarters in a row, bringing next year's estimates up to $5/share. 16 times earnings is still cheap for a company throwing off as much cash flow as they are.
ReplyDeleteCopper up nicely, LOL, I heard rumors China will refuse to buy next week in order to push prices to new lows...
ReplyDeleteHmm.... I doubt this one but even so, it won't do anything but shut production down.
CSTR - TOF, I see what you mean. Also, the entire world doesn't hate, and thus isn't attempting to short CSTR. CSTR poses no threat to the entire financial system... ;)
ReplyDeleteCP > Yes, CSTR is very consumer friendly. It even allows you to save money.
ReplyDeleteBig picture, CSTR's business model is changing the bricks & mortar industry in a different, yet similar way that the internet did. It's a low overhead, low maintenance business. They have tons of other ideas in the pipeline as well, so it's not just a Redbox / Coinstar business. Two of the interesting ones that I wonder if they will catch traction:
Gizmo > Kiosk that allows you to buy refurbished electronics.
Coffee Kiosk > Sells Seattle's best coffee, freshly brewed, right out of the kiosk.
CSTR should hit the 200 DMA today at 48.06...its been awhile since it was over that.
ReplyDeletedudes - just based on charts, the hang seng is looking pretty damn similar to the nikkei from the early nineties. if you follow the bounce in the nikkei from august of 91, the bounce stuck for about 2 to 3 months. that was a great time to get short the nikkei. i suspect with copper dropping the way it did, the negativity surrounding the chinese market could very well return after this bounce runs its course. so perhaps toward the end of the year we should be looking to short FXI....
ReplyDeleteChina - I'm not sure what to think, but I suspect they try to paint a negative picture in hopes they get better prices.
ReplyDeleteJust my observation, and basic understanding/experience of/with Asian culture.
When working with the Japanese, they played this comical game where they knew their Asian customers would demand heavy discounts, so they would come to the table with grossly inflated prices.
Just sayin', and note that supposedly China hasn't bought copper yet(while the price was low) but is expected to next week.
I tend to think we're just exiting some kind of BS bargaining cycle, while it's entirely possible the BS session is far from over.
Copper under $3? I think it unlikely for any period of time, but of course I've been wrong before too... Picking bottoms is hard to do when you're not running the show and those that do have infinite smoke-screen mechanisms at their disposal. It's nearly impossible for the little guy to differentiate truth from fiction in a forward looking micro perspective.
Let's just say the world hasn't ended, and then work from there? Return to the mean/longer trend stuff...?
I say this is a BS smokescreen to keep bottom pickers at bay:
ReplyDelete"The buzz is that when the Chinese return from their break, traders will hold back any serious buying until the red metal descends to $6,000 per metric ton ($2.72/lb)."
We'll soon see, I guess, and I wouldn't put it past the Chinese to paint charts, etc., but prices are already low here.
UNG - First day in a while those guys weren't busily getting hosed...
ReplyDeleteSo where's 2nd off to, visiting his "Travel Agent" perhaps?
ReplyDelete-Trump Winery-
ReplyDeleteI'm hearing our new neighbor's winery Tuesday opening got off to a rocky start for some reason...
Abstract:
ReplyDelete"How the euro heated up the borrowing-fueled economies of member states. Where Greece got its billions from. How the growth miracle failed to materialize. How the Germans betrayed the rules of the EU and benefited from the euro zone.":
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,790333,00.html
new post
ReplyDelete