Tuesday, November 1, 2011
11/02/11 Take to the highway won't you lend me your name
The last time I can recall driving for the sheer joy of it was the solo journey from Ann Arbor to SF in 1990. I can honestly say I enjoyed every second on the highway- every sunrise, every storm on the horizon, every meal.
I'm not really in sync with the markets right now. Out of the joint two trading days and I'm looking for my footing. When I'm able to say 'Your way and my way seem to be one and the same,' I'll return to posting takes on market direction.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
2nd - There's no need to be in sync with the markets at all times. I'd rather focus on any one of the following (golden ticket if they meet all criteria):
ReplyDelete*Stocks that remain strong in a weak market
*Companies that have strong fundamentals and are operating in a secular growth industry
*Companies with excellent balance sheets
*Companies that are possibly going through a turnaround and have significant operating leverage
*Underloved and/or under followed companies
A few that I'm coming up with (some I'm still researching):
CVV - tested 50 DMA and bounced; earnings in 10 days or so
NLS - probably my favorite stock right now; earnings 11/7; I've posted about this one...huge upside potential, turnaround is just about complete, they sold off unprofitable divisions, have good balance sheet, focusing on growing products, are getting better customer credit approval rates as economy improves, and are now able to focus on growth (i.e., new products) now that the restructuring is done
CSTR - right at 50 DMA
SILC - right at 200 DMA after a huge run up in October
ATHN - overvalued on earnings/etc, but excellent growth; don't like that the CEO has made multiple appearances on CNBC touting growth
MLAB - right at 50 DMA; still doing research on this one
BKJ - underloved sector but showing very solid steady growth over number of years; very illiquid
TOF, you forgot to add AUMN to your list, which meets all your criteria, at least today, when it closed up 5%. :)
ReplyDeleteDavid - yeah I hear ya but I don't include mining companies for a specific reason: i don't know how to determine the value of their main product so if something negatively impacts the price of that product I most likely won't understand why and whether it will continue that way going forward.
ReplyDeleteAUMN- High volume insider buys recently @ 7.44
ReplyDeleteAll right, all right -- I was just kidding...
ReplyDeleteOn a serious note -- take a look at the 3-month TLT chart and tell me: how can you go wrong by setting up a money pump in TBT now? The 30-year yield cannot fall much lower than 3%, and so you bound to make lots of money by scaling and out of TBT until it finally zooms up. In order not to miss that zooming up action, you can buy some long-term TLT puts, which is what I did today.
2nd_ave -- Sentient Group recently bought $30M worth of shares at $7.44, which is another reason (in addition to the one clearly visible on the 2-year chart of AUMN) why I think that AUMN can only briefly puncture $7 to the downside before it finally zooms up.
ReplyDeleteI meant to say "scaling in and out of TBT"...
ReplyDeleteSomething BIG happened to the markets today... Even Bloomberg data is screwed up now. The page
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/us/
shows the change in bond yields relative to yesterday's close rather than to today's close...
David - Just because it can't go lower doesn't mean it will go higher. What happens to the decay on TBT if it trades flat?
ReplyDeleteDavid- Since I've been ignoring pretty much all posts re miners for the past 2 years, can you summarize in one post: Why AUMN?
ReplyDeleteI am glad that I was smart enough not to set a stop on my recent AUMN purchases at $6.95, "far enough" below the recent lows. I would have been SO faked out today...
ReplyDeleteTOF -- if TBT trades flat, then all "buy and holders" of TBT will gradually lose money (about 3-4% per month). But all traders who simply buy a lot of TBT for every step down and sell a lot for every step up will make LOADS of money with this money pump...
ReplyDeleteDavid- MarketWatch must be having problems with data display also, currently shows DJIA -236 today:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/
"Why AUMN"
ReplyDeleteI believe it was an arranged marriage when Dave's Fiance got attached. Sort of a threesome. I believe this is illegal in most states now a day's.
2nd_ave, the current market cap of AUMN is $250M, out of which they have $120M in cash. So they are given only $130M credit for around 600M AgEq oz of measured, indicated and inferred resources, which is the largest deposit I have seen among junior silver miners.
ReplyDeleteIn one year, they will become cashflow positive:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Golden-Minerals-ECU-Silver-iw-2956149130.html?x=0
Also, next summer they will publish the Preliminary Economic Assessment report, where they will predict their silver production costs at the scale of 2000 tpd(I have not seen them above $10/oz at ANY silver producing company), which will reduce a lot of the market anxiety about their deposit. Also, they will start building the new 2000 tpd mill, which will also reduce a lot of uncertainty about whether or not they are going to start producing LARGE volumes of gold/silver any time soon. In the above link, they wrote that the 2000 tpd mill will allow them to produce 8M AgEqOz per year. Companies that currently produce that much silver currently have a market cap of around $2.5B, which implies a 10X potential for AUMN in 3 years (probably much sooner, because the market is looking ahead) at the current gold/silver prices. If silver/gold doubles in 3 years (which I totally expect to happen), then it will be a K*10X upside, with K being a positive integer.
This is all in addition to the purely technical reason of $7 being a major support level on a 2-year chart and $7.44 being a major psychological anchor because of the recent large purchase by Sentient Group...
David - what is silver/gold drops by 50%? i know it's not gonna happen but what if it does and sentiment surrounding any mining company plummets?
ReplyDeletesorry meant to say "what if"
ReplyDelete"what is silver/gold drops by 50%? i know it's not gonna happen but what if it does and sentiment surrounding any mining company plummets?"
ReplyDeleteIn that case, AUMN will take a hit and will recover only in 3 years, when it reaches full production of 8M AgEqOz per year and will be able to amortize fixed costs over that large production.
Right now, however, AUMN has the best *value* among all junior silver exploration and production companies in terms of market cap divided by the expected value of its production in 3 years. If anyone knows a company with a smaller ratio than that, let me know.
Also, TOF, even if silver were to crash 50%, it would simply return to where it was last summer, before QE2 began. At that point, large silver producers (8M oz per year is large) were very profitable, and so AUMN will be very profitable as well.
ReplyDeleteTOF's new boy friend... http://peterlbrandt.com/
ReplyDeleteDavid- I had a limit order in for AUMN today. That's big news for me!!
ReplyDeleteWhat happened to Warrens girl friend?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.mediabistro.com/tvnewser/cnbcs-becky-quick-delivers-baby-boy_b80452
ReplyDeleteevening all
ReplyDeletesold my 5 SPY DEC 124 puts today right at the open with an order I had set up before the market opened but it worked out. Made $1,249 profit on a $5,382 investment which was just dumb luck. WHen I first bought this straddle, I had bought it with the intention of selling the calls for enough profit to pay for the whole position. So the trade worked out but it just feels sloppy and I'd hate to run a trading biz on luck.
Mad gave the alert to sell the FXE puts that we bought last Thur. Paid $2.89 last week and sold them at $5.44 today. I wish I could make trades like that. One of the problems with the alert system, today I had the time to watch for his post and when he did he said sell at $5.70 or best price, by the time I get the alert and get my order out its dropped so there is quite a bit of slippage between his alert and my execution.
I looked at the charts with 45 min left n the day and to me it looks like the SPY is right at resistance but I know we are in a headline driven market so I bot 2 JAN12 124 SPY calls for $5.44. This is a small position in a crazy market. I wanted the JAN12's because I like having more time on the options. Plus this gives me the ability to sell shorter term calls to offset some of the expense.
TOF - I did read something today (one of my regular reads but I don't remember who) that said gold is going down to at least 1500 if not more so there are certainly more peeps in your camp.
CC - talking about timber yesterday. I like that idea. My absolute favorites are the ferts, CF, MOS, POT. I don't own any now because someone posted an article on BC's site about the ethanol subsidy being under review. Cutting the subsidy would give the ferts a good smacking. I want to read more about what congress will do with that.
Actually, speaking of the ferts, the only idea I have for tomorrow is to do a lower strike bear put spread on CF and pay for it with an even lower cash secured put sale. CF reported after the bell and it didn't do much so maybe it drops tomorrow. I did this trade last month with the 130/125/120 strikes when CF was trading at $140 and it worked out well. Before I was out of the position though CF traded down to $115 briefly before popping back up to the $140 level.
Too tired to look at it now but tomorrow will be a light day so I may look for two things
ReplyDelete1. selling cash secured puts and buying higher strike calls on something i don't mind owning for a few years. I did that with FCX last week using the weekly's so maybe I'll do that again unless someone has a better stock idea that tickles my fancy.
2. buying a shorter term strangle on the SPY or possibly some energy name with a lot of volatiltiy.
Both of the trades above will be with much smaller positions.
later
Don't all methods have their problems?
ReplyDeleteDavid likes AUMN for a variety of reasons.
Can't the same things happen to ANY stock?
Maybe we have a major crash, maybe silver goes down with it. Maybe CSTR get's major competition from Google (saw that today BTW), maybe a CEO lies about the balance sheet and the auditor is crooked (like THAT would be a first), maybe there is a unforeseen disruptive introduction by a competitor, maybe Nautilus is discovered to cause women to grow dicks and men to grow boobs, who knows? Any of these is as likely as silver going down.
Technically we aren't looking so hot anyway.
The news driven breakout broke down today, the Fed is meeting, Geithner is meeting with the uber-committee, the Greeks parked a horse on the lawn and the Chinese real estate market is sweet and sour.
On the daily the charts all have broken down and the weekly has a bowtie down.
I just renewed Landry for another 14 months (12 months and two free) so it's costing me $85 a month to have a pro keep me out of trouble.
We only have one position which is short and nothing else set up which is fine by me.
I still throw a day trade on for fun once in a while when the news drives things, but I'm happy to follow Louise Yamana. I'd rather be out wishing I was in than in wishing I was out.
Okay, just out of curiosity I ran a chart of AUMN. David, on the weekly that is the ugliest chart I've seen, perhaps ever. The good news is it's at or close to the two year low with a defined stop. It *could*, with extreme luck, go to 28. But I'm not a bottom fisher and it's got a killer bowtie down on a weekly chart so it's not a long to me because the big blue arrow is at a 45 degree down, and it isn't a short because it has no where to go that will make me anything. I'll just wish you the best on it but I'll mention I don't have anything to pick and I'm not going to invent a trade if there's no edge or trend. Anything can happen.
I like where Second is. The cat bird seat is a good place to be when markets are pointless.
All right, guys -- you convinced me. AUMN can do pretty much anything until next summer, when the market will have to start reckoning with the inevitability of 8M AgEqOz produced annually by AUMN. So I need to take at least some profits if AUMN starts going up, so that I will then be able to reload my positions if it comes down.
ReplyDeleteSo I just placed a sell limit order at $8.34 for the 500 shares I purchased recently at $7.54, so as to make a decent $400 profit. Also, out of 10 December $7.50 calls I purchased at $0.75, I placed a sell limit for 5 calls at $1.50 and for 5 more calls at $2.50. That should take care of my profit taking all the way to $10 on AUMN.
The futures just broke out of their whipsaw pattern printed today -- do the traders know ahead of time that Merkel and Sarkozy will convince Papandreou to call off the referendum? That's interesting... 'Cause I wouldn't be buying futures until I know how their meeting with Papandreou goes...
ReplyDeleteDavid,
ReplyDeleteHave you looked at Minco Silver? I've read it is one of the cheapest out there. They have a silver mine in China that is supposed to be coming onstream in 2013 with 6.4 million ounces of silver per year at cash costs of $8.60 per ounce. Market cap is $144 million.
They've run into some water / environment issues recently, so their stock is down. Plus, it's China which is risk all on its own these days.
Magic Software (MGIC) out with another great quarter. They are a software company which builds application integration and cloud software which help companies make various other software work together. Looks like the stock will be up this morning, but at the current price:
ReplyDeleteMarket Cap $176 million with $45 million in cash and no debt
2011 estimated P/E of 11
Growing the last 2 years at over 30% per year
Positioned in the hot "Cloud Space"
Lots of new customer wins, plus several industry awards
Gave a special $0.50 dividend 2 years ago
The reason it is so cheap is it is based in Israel, so not as well known and there is a majority shareholder, Formula Systems (FORTY) which means it would be harder to get a takeover, but there are a lot of companies who would be potential acquirers of this - SAP, ORCL, IBM all do application integration.
Now, how's this for a sign things are changing? A U.S. furniture company is selling more of its production to China.
ReplyDelete==========================================
Connecticut-based furniture maker Ethan Allen Interiors Inc. saw sales rise 12% between July and September from the previous year.
The company, which makes 70% of its products in the U.S., has seen growth in global markets such as China and is considering opening stores in Europe, India and Brazil, said Chief Executive Farooq Kathwari.
Ethan Allan is just a furniture company, it's one of the best in terms of quality high-end products.
ReplyDeleteI highly recommend Ethan Allan furniture.
I woke up late....if I woke up earlier I would have been buying OPEN at $37.
ReplyDeleteSSRI - This one also has a nice silver deposit.
ReplyDeleteactually if OPEN could get to $33 I think that would be the ideal spot to buy
ReplyDeleteBought a little more CVV at $16.2
ReplyDeleteMMMMMM...donuts....
ReplyDeleteMy picks:
KKD
KO
IPSU
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-02/fatty-foods-addictive-as-cocaine-in-growing-body-of-science.html
CC > I like KKD, longer term weekly chart looks great.
ReplyDeleteIsn't this market drama just fascinating?
ReplyDeleteMan, I LOVE the graphene idea and the CVV chart is MY kind of chart.
ReplyDeleteAccelerating trend...a *little* iffy lately (on the daily, the weekly is awesome) but still trending higher.
It looks set-up here. I might wait until it clears $17. Kind of a mini cup and handle. The weekly is quite good.
CC > Yeah that's my thinking too with CVV man. I think there is still a lot of momentum in this company. They're trading at a mkt cap of under $100 Million with $22 Million in cash and rapidly growing EPS
ReplyDeleteI bought a wee bit more NLS at $2.02. Earnings are on Monday. I think they have many positives going for them, including a completed turnaround, focus on growing license revenues, and focusing on new products for revenue growth. The kicker: solid balance sheet and $80 Million in loss carryforwards.
ReplyDeleteI'm trying to muster up the strength to just buy and hold this sucker. On weekly chart it looks like it's just beginning its next run up The prior three run ups over the past few years resulted in at least 150% gains each time.
NLS: So why not put in a buy order at 2.17 (around the 50 dma on the weekly) which is also around where it clears most of the overhead and the MA's cross up? If it gaps up big deal, you miss a small part of the run up but you lower the risk.
ReplyDeleteIt seems you could buy this co on the bowtie up and sell on the cross down over the last two years and not do too badly. Earnings is always a little scary for a consumer name in a not so good economy, but a lot of people are buying home equipment and cancelling their gym memberships.
Upon further examination NLS could be bought and sold on crosses of the 20 DMA quite effectively.
ReplyDeleteBetter than the bowties. (on the weekly chart using the exponential MA, it's a little faster).
CC > Two reasons:
ReplyDelete(1) The valuation is so cheap and the operating leverage pretty high in their business that any sniff of good news and this sucker will gap up quite a bit
(2) The stock is fairly illiquid so buying after it breaks resistance is almost impossible.
Yes, both NLS and CVV aren't that liquid.
ReplyDeleteIf you buy a 1000 shares you are just about 1% of the volume on the average day.
The main reason NLS dropped so hard in June was a unique circumstance to them that I think will be negated very soon. About 3 years ago a company called Sherborne Investors came in and basically bailed out the company, took over the management team and started a turnaround process. They sold off the money losing divisions and focused on direct to consumer and products in the higher growth cardio sectors.
ReplyDeleteBack in the spring of this year, they announced intentions to have the replacement CEO step down. As part of their arrangement when they invested in the company, when the CEO stepped down, the shares that Sherborne held were then distributed to each of their shareholders. It was my interpretation back then (I posted about this back in June/July) that the shareholders then dumped the shares on the open market at whatever price they could get.
What was ironic was that this occurred right on the heels of a better than expected earnings report that confirmed they are seeing momentum in their business. The stock ran up to $3.4 on the heels of that report and then just got trashed. I personally believe (that some people out there in our nation don't have maps: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lj3iNxZ8Dww...sorry couldn't resist) that the momentum of the business is strong enough to weather weakness in consumer spending
CSTR - Testing the 50SMA now, I'm still waiting for this one to come to me...
ReplyDeleteAnd others, as well.
Well, I believe that the education in the Iraq and places such as the South Africa should give us access to maps.
ReplyDeleteSomething tells me the bears are getting effed with on this market pullback.
ReplyDeleteOnly those that missed the short signal when we dropped back in the range.
ReplyDeletehttp://peterlbrandt.com/what-the-charts-say-about-the-u-s-stock-market/
But this goes back to my Louise Yamada quote.
yeah i like that yamada quote....speaking of her, she has a new video on yahoo which quite frankly was the most confusing nonsense i've ever heard:
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/despite-rally-market-technicals-flashing-warning-signs-yamada-145202961.html#more-8072
Acutally, it looks like the market is ----ing with bulls who bought this morning.
ReplyDeletewe're all being effed with.
ReplyDeletei just walked outside and realized there's more to the world than the market.
Really? I understood everything she said. Of course I'm paying $85 a month to have another analyst explain it in a slightly different way, but using the same charts. however, I don't follow the VIX, but the S&P ranges and support resistance make complete sense.
ReplyDelete"11/2/11 10:05:00 IMF Board Needs Assurance That Greece Can Fulfill Commitments Before Giving Further Financials Support - Reuters"
ReplyDeleteThis sure smells like a coordinated effort to kick Greece out of the Euro. If that happens the markets will rally hard in my opinion.
CC > It just sounded to me like she was merely commentating on the market. She essentially said a VIX in the 30's is scary....ummm no shit. Pay me and I can tell you the same thing. When the VIX is elevated the markets are weak. Shit I'd be willing to make a TV appearance for only $500 to say that.
ReplyDeleteRE: NLS - They dropped it from $2.02 to $1.97 on 800 shs. If earnings are good and you try to buy the breakout you could easily push it up into no mans land. The better strategy is to pick a price and slowly buy some shares. $2ish is very cheap in my mind when I can see a scenario where they do $0.30 EPS next year and the stock is trading at $7.
ReplyDeleteYou know technicians like to use levels to assess risk to the upside or downside. She is more or less saying that either bet is high risk, but that she feels there is more risk for bulls.
ReplyDeleteHard to argue since we are in a predominantly news driven period. Earnings may be great but if Euro Tarpo crashes then all bets are off.
Or as Dave says, "it's hard to build an economy on a bail out".
Apparently the Fed (admittedly horrible at reading markets) says there is more downside risk.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-02/fed-sees-significant-downside-risks-to-economy-leaves-policy-unchanged.html
"Earnings may be great but if Euro Tarpo crashes then all bets are off."
ReplyDeleteI've been hearing different variations of this for 2+ years now...if X doesn't happen then we're finished. I ain't buying it.
CC > The same question could be asked a different way:
ReplyDeleteIf earnings don't crash like people expect after all of the following it went through:
*Banks on brink of collapse
*Dubai debt collapse
*Greece debt collapse
*Oil spike
*Japan Tsunami
*BP Oil spill
*Weather related stuff (volcano / hurricanes / etc)
*Italy / Spain debt crisis
*Government Debt Ceiling raise fiasco
then all bearish bets are off. That's a ton of crap thrown at this market.
"This sure smells like a coordinated effort to kick Greece out of the Euro. If that happens the markets will rally hard in my opinion."
ReplyDeleteI believe Greece is hanging in there by the skin of their teeth and Germany wants them out.
Meanwhile, there are articles floating around claiming TBTF has been ramping up their sales of CDS's betting against European default, inclusive of Greece?
Add floods and crop loss to the list.
ReplyDeleteI'm saying I don't know. I'm not a mind reader or prescient. I trade trends and lately there isn't a trend. I think that is what Yamada is saying too.
ReplyDeleteIt may be that CP is right. If they off Greece then they may have the ammo to deal with Italy and Spain.
In short I'm not buying news or selling news. Just give me a trend, up or down and I'm happy.
I hear FED offered no QE... T/F I don't know.
ReplyDeleteCC- What was the GOOG/CSTR comment about?
ReplyDelete"I trade trends and lately there isn't a trend."
ReplyDeleteOkay, it's nice to know I'm not missing something, which too often is the case. ;)
The fact we're not still selling off is encouraging, although I had hoped to see some open gaps up close and I'm in no mood to add until after they're closed. This is why I didn't add yesterday...
CC > Yeah I hear ya man...this hasn't been the easiest market to trade. I don't know how short term traders do it...maybe they don't. The best way to navigate it as I can see is to keep fundamentals in mind, watch the stocks that appear to be holding up the best, and buy them on market weakness.
ReplyDelete"Streaming Movies to PCs and Connected Devices
ReplyDeleteMore of a surprise this morning was a streaming movie service for Android devices (smartphones, tablets) and PCs. It’s effectively an extension of the recently launched YouTube movie rental service. The same titles are available through both YouTube and the Android Market. Accordingly you can watch movies on your PC via the Android Market, YouTube or on Android tablets and smartphones.
One of the really nice features of both services, but especially movies is that users can “pin” movies and watch them when there’s no data connection (e.g., on a plane).
Google has launched two products that now directly compete with Netflix, Sonos, iTunes and Amazon’s services — not to mention Microsoft. The battle for the cloud and the living room is on."
Just as Graphene is likely to be a disruptive technology, I think Google's entry into streaming movies will be disruptive to Netflix, etc. which will include Redbox. Goggle has a lot more resources to throw at this than some of the other players and they have shown they are willing to introduce free services to take market share.
I'm not saying this will be instantly, but it pays to watch the horizon. Disclosure: I made some money with CSTR and will be looking to get back in on a decent pullback.
Hey TOF, here's another $500 engagement....
ReplyDelete"Fed: Growth Strengthened; ‘Downside Risks’ Remain".
Sheer genius.
TRID - Reports tomorrow after close. I don't expect any good news there, if at all.
ReplyDeleteFor David: From Cara.com
ReplyDelete"Re: UXG news releases new
Submitted by papadynamite (256 comments) on Wed, 11/02/2011 - 13:57 #99052 (in reply to #99036)
Nervous Nellies are all over the place! Relax! UXG has dropped substantially. If you were a trader, you would have had stops in place or went with the daily flow and scalped it. It all depends upon your investment philosophy. You may be like my wife who buys and holds! Unfortunately, she has been getting clobbered recently.
The current price, sub $5.00, seems reasonable. However, it has a bottoming range of $3.70 -$4.90 which is quite wide for a sub $5 stock. In fact it reached a low of $3.23 last month. If you paid over $5, I feel your pain.
To remain upbeat, I remind you that they will be going into production in Q2 next year in Mexico. They will also be merging with Minera Andes by yearend. They are also developing a mine in Nevada which is about 1-2 years away from production. Just keep the faith and you'll be ok.
You mentioned you misfortune with ECU. I recently bought AUMN, Golden Minerals, which took over ECU. This stock could be a four bagger but you do your own due dilligence. The officers are former executives of Cyprus Amax. I was a former manager of Amax before Phelps Dodge took them out. This is a very good executive team. They happen to have their headquarters in Golden, Colorado which is where I went to school at the Colorado School of Mines. I suggest you go to their website to find out about AUMN.
My current positions are UXG, AUMN and Rubicon. All are showing a profit but I am keeping a tight leash! Unlike my wife, I am not a buy and hold. Good luck."
Thanks.
ReplyDeleteCC > Yeah and it's funny that the whole market sits around and waits for their release. Who the eff cares?
ReplyDeleteLook, we're clearly in a 70's redux period.
If we're in that period, then what trading method worked best? the similarities to the 1974-79 period are close enough to consider this. they had a big 20% drop that probably scared the shit out of traders and if the media was as large then as it is now they surely would have been saying we were heading back to 1974 lows and lower. well, guess what? we stopped at exactly 20% and then that market reversed course.
ReplyDeleteOkay, I ignore the news for the most part, but I'm human. did you guys see these stories when they broke? Did you see the figures involved and who is on the hook?
ReplyDeleteThen there is the final story. I wonder why they choose platinum but I think it might be to get around the gold market in hedging the first two stories.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/301260-bank-of-america-dumps-75-trillion-in-derivatives-on-u-s-taxpayers-with-federal-approval
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-18/bofa-said-to-split-regulators-over-moving-merrill-derivatives-to-bank-unit.html
http://seekingalpha.com/article/301126-why-the-fed-s-primary-dealers-are-buying-platinum
BTW TOF, bought CVV on that little Fed induced pullback and I'm up 3%. Better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick.
ReplyDeleteNice CC...I bought some more as well. Not sure what my avg price is but I think it's around $16. I think this sucker could really run very soon.
ReplyDeleteSYMS...That's the trade!! Buy Co's on the day they go BK!!
ReplyDeleteCVV spiking...
ReplyDeleteCC > looks like a lot of people were thinking along your lines with CVV...buy the spike above $17. That's a hard game to play because it almost always comes back down below the breakout point.
ReplyDeleteLooks like we're set to close yesterday's gaps down, doesn't it?
ReplyDeleteI can't believe the moves, both ways, in some of the E&P guys I follow.
ReplyDelete"Nervous Nellies are all over the place! Relax! UXG has dropped substantially. If you were a trader, you would have had stops in place or went with the daily flow and scalped it."
ReplyDeleteUXG doesn't appear down today on my chart... There's an open gap down from $5.46 that needs to fill, the only open gap on the entire 1yr chart.
MMM - This one's on sale here.
ReplyDeleteCVV: I don't see that as the breakout, I see it as the resumption of the trend off of 12+. On the daily (intraday) it's a breakout, but I don't buy breakouts as they tend to fail. I was looking further back in the chart to August-September.
ReplyDeleteI'm still glad I bought below 16 and I will again given the chance, which is the same price as the pullback a few days ago. I think we were lucky today.
rimm - Looks just like csco's chart did a few months ago...
ReplyDeleteCC > Dude it was all skill man
ReplyDeleteMaybe skill in suppressing fear....
ReplyDeleteI am now officially 3.1% of today's NLS volume.
ReplyDeleteI see what looks like large orders under PM miners going into close...
ReplyDeleteI'm just kidding CC.
ReplyDeleteYeah I actually made up 15% of todays volume in NLS. I bought about 5k shs.
QCOM - Never did revisit $44, did it?
ReplyDeleteafternoon,
ReplyDeleteno sales, bot 5 SPY 123/125 Nov 19th strangle for 4.94. The best thing for this trade would be a big drop or an even bigger rally. Puts are still more expensive than calls, at least when I did this they were. I think we're going to see a lot of movement without going anywhere. Just keeping any new positions small for now.
As far as long term swing deals to the long side, I'd feel better with a smoother uptrend out of SPY 1300 than what I'm seeing now.
No new Mad trades today either. Just watching.
SNE - Looks like earning profits in consumer electronics business is a tough act...
ReplyDeleteI was out for the day (first drove to work for a morning meeting, then took a walk outside in the nice warm and sunny California weather, remaining in the state of Infinite Consciousness observing impartially the arising and passing of all phenomena in the world (including thoughts, sensations, etc.), so as not to be stuck in the small Egocentric mind with all the corresponding worries) and I have just caught up on what happened in the market today.
ReplyDeleteIt looks like Merkel and Sarkozy are bullying Papandreou as we speak, and some news about that should be out soon.
Thank you, BB, for mentioning Minco Silver -- I'll research them.
Thank you, Craig, for your post about UXG/AUMN. UXG has a much larger market cap than AUMN and is projecting a smaller production than AUMN in 2014. As for AUMN's management team, I read a few times that they were serious guys and they WILL get that production going. One could feel that right away in the press release they made on September 2 about the post-merger future of the combined company.
Is a Mad trade just an intense normal trade?
ReplyDeleteTOF -- the CVV chart makes me scared, as there is a LONG way to go down if the momentum traders leave the stock. NLS, on the other hand, has a great chart, especially if I could buy it at $1.50. Or, wait -- I CAN buy it at $1.50! I just placed a sell limit order for 20 January $2.50 puts for $1.00. The last trade for these puts went through at $1.05, so I have a decent chance of selling them before Friday.
ReplyDeleteAnother thing worth mentioning today: ONP closed at $3.03, up 24%. I did tell you guys last week that the time to buy it was at $2.43, after it became apparent that they put a base at that price and are not breaking down? I bought 3200 shares at that price and set a sell limit at $2.93 for 1200 of them. That limit was hit today, netting me $600 on an investment of $2900. I still have 20 short ONP November $2.50 puts that I sold for $800 total and that will hopefully expire in November...
ReplyDeleteLatest news: "Greek referendum set for Dec. 4 or 5; European leaders say no aid until then."
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/Greek-vote-in-early-Dec-but-apf-1502613385.html?x=0
So tomorrow will be your chance to reload any stocks that you thought got away from you. :)
S&P futures are tanking on this news...
ReplyDeleteDavid - I highly doubt I will be in CVV for more than a short trade, but in general, the chart doesn't really have that parabolic run up feel to it that makes me scared.
ReplyDeleteA book that I always refer back to is Peter Lynch's "One Up On Wall Street" and in there he gives tons of examples of stocks that you could have purchased AFTER they made huge runs and still made a fortune. I'm not saying CVV is that stock but what's to say it doesn't make a run like BOOM did back in 2004 and on? It's a similar Industrial Goods type of company that is seeing massive growth from a crazy amount of interest in graphene and other nano materials. At $100 Million mkt cap with $22 Million in cash, all it takes is yet another great quarter and this sucker could run to $30. In 3 years BOOM went from a market cap of around $20 or $25 Million to $1 Billion. You could have bought it after it went up 5 fold and still made another 6 times your money. After a 5 fold jump that chart was probably too scary for a ton of investors...
All right, TOF -- when the market gaps down tomorrow, I might pick up a little of CVV. :)
ReplyDelete"A "no" vote in the referendum would have enormous consequences not just for Greece but for the rest of Europe. It could lead to a disorderly Greek default, force Greece out of the 17-nation eurozone, topple many fragile European banks and send the global economy spinning back into recession."
ReplyDeleteThis is something that I can actually believe...
David - The one thing that has me concerned about CVV is the insider selling, but again, this isn't really a grave concern. Look for example at BOOM:
ReplyDeletehttp://sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000034067&type=&dateb=20060101&owner=include&count=40
Look at all of those insiders cashing in back in June 2005, before the stock went on to triple.
I think the psychology of an insider selling is pretty simple....they have been with the business for years and haven't seen any crazy boom. The stock might have risen in the past at one point. The insiders were probably whipping out their spreadsheets and calculating how much they were worth, projecting it out over time and envisioning retiring at an early age or perhaps if they were lucky enough they could really strike it rich and own a big yacht and maybe even a small island. Then the stock tanks. Their imaginary wealth is gone. The business barely gets by for the next several years. They go through a recession and times get tough. Then the recession abates but business never really rebounds much more than being a marginally profitable business.
Then the motherload hits. One of their products is in huge demand. The demand kind of seems to come out of nowhere. And the stock makes a massive run up. All of a sudden over the span of 6 months their net worth on paper has risen dramatically, even surpassing the prior highs when they were daydreaming. Knowing that this is probably too good to be true, they lock in a good chunk of their paper wealth. Then the stock trades sideways for a little while and maybe even takes a bit of a hit. They can't resist the urge to just cash it all in knowing that the odds are business will return back to where it was before. They're geniuses, having sold at the top and cashed in a boat load. It's time to retire.
But wait. Just as they're arranging their plans, the stock jumps up again, and again. Now all of a sudden they're sitting there at their computers, opening up a spreadsheet and typing in the number of shares they once owned and multiplying it by the stock price. They can't believe it. If they just waited another few months they would have actually been able to buy that island and yacht after all.
Anyway, that's the way I envision things going down at these types of companies that have these crazy run ups, followed by massive insider selling, then another run up.
TOF- Yep, 33 would be an ideal spot for OPEN. Stands out nicely on the monthly.
ReplyDeleteWTF?? I thought they kicked Rangle out. WTF is he preaching to me on TV? What a fing joke.
ReplyDeleteThe Harlanator and his crew...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.screencast.com/t/PsYHJ4cCJJx