TTM - Example of an extended pinch that wasn't really tight to begin with and the ADX +DI was pretty high recently (10 is usually a good time to buy, right as the -DI turns down and MACD/ADX both turn away from one another), I don't think this chart is particularly appealing at this point:
So it looks like Blockbuster Express hiked their prices: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-03/ncr-blockbuster-express-raises-dvd-rental-prices-follows-redbox-netflix.html
Talk about a confusing pricing model...gotta be a positive for CSTR.
Just listened to the quarterly conference call for XWES....company is very interesting indeed. I think op ex will rise by about 30% next year on the back of their 3 acquisitions that they have done in the past 2 months. So I would expect Op Ex to rise to $19 Million next year. If revenues rise from $21 Million to $32 Million, which is a 50% rise and right in the middle of company estimates, and they do 80% margins which is below the 9 months of 2011 of about 81%, then they should make about $0.55 pre tax (based on 12 million shs which is what they projected on the call).
Based on a 20 P/E which is probably low given the growth rate they have, that would translate to an $11 stock price, a return of 206% over current prices. From the call it sounds like they have the potential to beat those estimates given the synergies they are gaining from these deals (e.g., they will be able to offer multiple services to existing customers of both their company and the acquired company that no other auction firm or broker can offer and they can offer cost savings to those customers if they combine sign up for multiple products that were previously offered by them and the companies they acquired). Anyway, I really like that they have a significant amount of recurring revenues, the steady revenue growth, the high insider ownership (>20%), the predominantly fixed overhead costs, and the fact that they can save customers a lot of money. Sounds like the energy deregulation of 10 years ago really gave their business model strength.
Who's breaking the rule? I had to chew off my thumbnail to not short the VXX today. Oldest lesson in the world is to not trust Greeks bearing gifts, right.
AUMN, Has a nice double bottom. BO level at 9.50 ish. but don't like the 50dma hanging around 10.00. I would be real interested if it broke the 50 and the $10.00 mark. Notice how the 50 has held a cap on the stock since July. Do like the increase in volume since September.
Little bits and pieces but nothing that I verify independently. Maybe you guys can point me in the right direction.
I have a coworker who is Chinese and takes her family back to China in the summer when the kids are out of school. She purchased some land there within the last 3 years and now its worth less than what she paid for it. She said food inflation is very bad. I have no idea where is it or how much it's dropped. Most of us have a hard time talking about our TBT's (not so good deals).
I heard 2nd hand or 3rd hand, must be 2nd hand cuz there's one person that I consider very reliable between me and the source. We'll call the source BOB. Bob is a very smart fella that is considered an expert on liquids (both social beverages and crude related products) and chemical plants. He routinely meets with buddies which include executives/owners of companies in the liquids/chemical biz that do biz in China. These executives/owners are saying China is slowing down because they are not ordering as much stuff as the were. Now its possible this is the slow down that we've already heard about and maybe its over but how do you check it out?
So my question is IS China slowing down a lot meaning growth is cut in half and how do you get the data to support it? Doesn't that sound like a good fundamental question?
port - I've been hearing China has been slowing down as well, no way to verify if true or just a story someone wants us to hear without having boots on the ground?
And the other question I have is, I've always heard that the Chinese are fantastic savers BUT, it seems like all of the wage data I've seen shows that most of the population doesn't make very much money. So if they don't make very much, would it really amount to alot of money even if they were saving 100%?
So who in China has the money that's being spent? If they peg their currency to the dollar then they should have the same problems, except they don't have to vote on policy.
And how about coal? I did read that they were having power shortages a few months ago because, there wasn't a shortage of coal, the Chinese coal producers would not sell the coal at the capped rate set by the government so the power producers didn't have enough to generate electricity.
XWES: possible gap and go pattern. Would put stop at 3.23 with a target of 3.96 for a 2 to 1. 1200 % increase in volume makes it interesting. Worried it maybe all Team! :) Would be interested in a bull flag down to the 20 DMA on declining volume, but still above the wee little volume it trades.
Mark, My new BEXP is GPOR they trade alot alike. I follow Wll closely. have not followed the degenerate names in awhile. What have KOG and Hero been up to.
Kog does not look so good. http://www.google.com/finance?q=kodiac+oil
port - yep it is. i dont know if thhere are several of those out there tho. on the call i was surprised to hear so many analysts (including an analyst from jpm) given its mkt cap of like $40 mill.
rb - my buys accointed for abt 1/7th the volume today. it was up abt $.30 hhigher at one pt.
Did you subscribe to their daily newsletter? Looks like its free. I see a snapshot of the EIA natty storage report and a price recap.
Interesting - I think we used one of their platforms a time or two to bid on deals, meaning we were competing with other suppliers to supply natty to end users.
I'll toss out the names to the bosses boss tomorrow and see what she thinks. She hates CHK and loves XOM management.
They bought GSE Consulting LP out of Dallas. I see an enron dude on there. GSE has a facebook page and some bio's of folks you don't see on the XWES website.
"BO level at 9.50 ish. but don't like the 50dma hanging around 10.00. I would be real interested if it broke the 50 and the $10.00 mark."
That's interesting, RB. So you are saying that once AUMN clears $10, then traders will really start piling in? Then it's entirely possible to see AUMN at $15 next week, 'cause it will DEFINITELY clear $10 soon so as to catch up with GDXJ, which has already put in a second higher low and is on the way to making a second higher high, while AUMN still has not made a higher high.
In this case, I just raised my sell limit orders for 10 April $5 calls I purchased on Tuesday at $2.55: will sell 5 calls at $6.50 and 5 calls at $8.50.
The ---- I be thinking, man?
ReplyDelete2nd - I liked you better when you were long and posting gap up headers on a daily basis.
ReplyDeletesorry bro.
AEM - Nice tight pincher formation, she's ready to rock and roll:
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=AEM&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p99295968853&a=217994610&r=7 736
It's a fact that most folks don't like downers.
ReplyDelete$Copper - Here's how that pincher worked out:
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$Copper&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p99295968853&a=217994610&r=7736
Gaps - I thought everyone liked gaps, the wider the better?
ReplyDeleteTTM - Example of an extended pinch that wasn't really tight to begin with and the ADX +DI was pretty high recently (10 is usually a good time to buy, right as the -DI turns down and MACD/ADX both turn away from one another), I don't think this chart is particularly appealing at this point:
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=TTM&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p99295968853&a=217994610&r=7736
Unless you're Tim Knight at Slope of Hope.
ReplyDeleteSo it looks like Blockbuster Express hiked their prices:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-03/ncr-blockbuster-express-raises-dvd-rental-prices-follows-redbox-netflix.html
Talk about a confusing pricing model...gotta be a positive for CSTR.
Buy-and-hold is only possible when doing time. Out on the street, I either fade the crowd or I get jumped.
ReplyDeleteBuy-and-hold is only possible with S&P, but not with TZA... We even had a rule on this blog of not holding TZA overnight -- remember that?
ReplyDeleteHard to believe a week ago I was living a disciplined existence in solitary. Now back in the crack house.
ReplyDeleteJust listened to the quarterly conference call for XWES....company is very interesting indeed. I think op ex will rise by about 30% next year on the back of their 3 acquisitions that they have done in the past 2 months. So I would expect Op Ex to rise to $19 Million next year. If revenues rise from $21 Million to $32 Million, which is a 50% rise and right in the middle of company estimates, and they do 80% margins which is below the 9 months of 2011 of about 81%, then they should make about $0.55 pre tax (based on 12 million shs which is what they projected on the call).
ReplyDeleteBased on a 20 P/E which is probably low given the growth rate they have, that would translate to an $11 stock price, a return of 206% over current prices. From the call it sounds like they have the potential to beat those estimates given the synergies they are gaining from these deals (e.g., they will be able to offer multiple services to existing customers of both their company and the acquired company that no other auction firm or broker can offer and they can offer cost savings to those customers if they combine sign up for multiple products that were previously offered by them and the companies they acquired). Anyway, I really like that they have a significant amount of recurring revenues, the steady revenue growth, the high insider ownership (>20%), the predominantly fixed overhead costs, and the fact that they can save customers a lot of money. Sounds like the energy deregulation of 10 years ago really gave their business model strength.
Who's breaking the rule? I had to chew off my thumbnail to not short the VXX today. Oldest lesson in the world is to not trust Greeks bearing gifts, right.
ReplyDeleteTOF- Did you check it out under its old name, World Energy Exchange?
ReplyDeleteAUMN - Looks like Sprott added a bit, from 821.7K shares as of 6/30/2011 to 1,277.7K shares on 10/7/2011...
ReplyDeleteAUMN, Has a nice double bottom. BO level at 9.50 ish. but don't like the 50dma hanging around 10.00. I would be real interested if it broke the 50 and the $10.00 mark. Notice how the 50 has held a cap on the stock since July. Do like the increase in volume since September.
ReplyDeleteLittle bits and pieces but nothing that I verify independently. Maybe you guys can point me in the right direction.
ReplyDeleteI have a coworker who is Chinese and takes her family back to China in the summer when the kids are out of school. She purchased some land there within the last 3 years and now its worth less than what she paid for it. She said food inflation is very bad. I have no idea where is it or how much it's dropped. Most of us have a hard time talking about our TBT's (not so good deals).
I heard 2nd hand or 3rd hand, must be 2nd hand cuz there's one person that I consider very reliable between me and the source. We'll call the source BOB. Bob is a very smart fella that is considered an expert on liquids (both social beverages and crude related products) and chemical plants. He routinely meets with buddies which include executives/owners of companies in the liquids/chemical biz that do biz in China. These executives/owners are saying China is slowing down because they are not ordering as much stuff as the were. Now its possible this is the slow down that we've already heard about and maybe its over but how do you check it out?
So my question is IS China slowing down a lot meaning growth is cut in half and how do you get the data to support it? Doesn't that sound like a good fundamental question?
port - I've been hearing China has been slowing down as well, no way to verify if true or just a story someone wants us to hear without having boots on the ground?
ReplyDeleteAnyway, here's their economic data calendar:
https://mninews.deutsche-boerse.com/content/china-economic-data-calendar-160
And the other question I have is, I've always heard that the Chinese are fantastic savers BUT, it seems like all of the wage data I've seen shows that most of the population doesn't make very much money. So if they don't make very much, would it really amount to alot of money even if they were saving 100%?
ReplyDeleteSo who in China has the money that's being spent? If they peg their currency to the dollar then they should have the same problems, except they don't have to vote on policy.
And how about coal? I did read that they were having power shortages a few months ago because, there wasn't a shortage of coal, the Chinese coal producers would not sell the coal at the capped rate set by the government so the power producers didn't have enough to generate electricity.
ReplyDeleteXWES: possible gap and go pattern. Would put stop at 3.23 with a target of 3.96 for a 2 to 1. 1200 % increase in volume makes it interesting. Worried it maybe all Team! :) Would be interested in a bull flag down to the 20 DMA on declining volume, but still above the wee little volume it trades.
ReplyDeletePort- OK, I'll call MOG re China. I know he just got back. Love the liquids comment BTW!!!
ReplyDeleteMark, My new BEXP is GPOR they trade alot alike. I follow Wll closely. have not followed the degenerate names in awhile. What have KOG and Hero been up to.
ReplyDeleteKog does not look so good.
http://www.google.com/finance?q=kodiac+oil
Thanks guys.
ReplyDeleteXWES - is that the company with the ex enron folk?
port - yep it is. i dont know if thhere are several of those out there tho. on the call i was surprised to hear so many analysts (including an analyst from jpm) given its mkt cap of like $40 mill.
ReplyDeleterb - my buys accointed for abt 1/7th the volume today. it was up abt $.30 hhigher at one pt.
Team Your like Jesse Livermore :)
ReplyDeleteDid you subscribe to their daily newsletter? Looks like its free. I see a snapshot of the EIA natty storage report and a price recap.
ReplyDeleteInteresting - I think we used one of their platforms a time or two to bid on deals, meaning we were competing with other suppliers to supply natty to end users.
I'll toss out the names to the bosses boss tomorrow and see what she thinks. She hates CHK and loves XOM management.
They bought GSE Consulting LP out of Dallas. I see an enron dude on there. GSE has a facebook page and some bio's of folks you don't see on the XWES website.
ReplyDeletePort- Everyone hates CHK.
ReplyDeleteRB- Sorry, I'll speak to KO/HERO tomorrow. Kisses.
ReplyDelete"BO level at 9.50 ish. but don't like the 50dma hanging around 10.00. I would be real interested if it broke the 50 and the $10.00 mark."
ReplyDeleteThat's interesting, RB. So you are saying that once AUMN clears $10, then traders will really start piling in? Then it's entirely possible to see AUMN at $15 next week, 'cause it will DEFINITELY clear $10 soon so as to catch up with GDXJ, which has already put in a second higher low and is on the way to making a second higher high, while AUMN still has not made a higher high.
In this case, I just raised my sell limit orders for 10 April $5 calls I purchased on Tuesday at $2.55: will sell 5 calls at $6.50 and 5 calls at $8.50.
new post
ReplyDeleteTrouble in Italy today?
ReplyDelete