Tuesday, November 8, 2011
11/08/11 All in good time
Consider having cashed out in 2000. A little late, even. That's exactly what we did with our portfolio, on the heels of a Bob Brinker comment to a listener (paraphrasing from memory): 'Well, look. I don't know if the market is going higher or not. But it's had a good run. It sold off earlier this year, and now the SPX is back to 1500. How many times do you expect the market will allow you to return to the trough?'
Let's say we then remained in cash for the next nine years, until May 2009. And then bought back in, again a little late. Hey, the portfolio would be kicking --- right now. Just sayin'.
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MITK has earnings coming up on 11/14.
ReplyDeleteNot sure if this message will post either. been having trouble today
I'd like to see every one of your portfolios kick ---. You can do it your own way, be it selective entries/exits within the buy-and-hold philosophy or active trading. I actually like Craig's patient stalking of the TBT trade. We've been stalking that sucker for >5 years. Eventually it will pay off. And may give you 20 years' worth of gains within a short period of time. You need to lie in wait like Major Koenig.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?NR=1&v=6JKLNCxWy98
Kyle's right, tof. You haven't been drinking enough. If you had, you would not have been easily seduced by FXP- the Asian cousin to TZA.
ReplyDeleteI'll be honest- after my first recent foray into the ultrashorts, I tried playing with fire again twice. And got burned twice. Overall, I freaking lost money on TZA. That ----- wins every time!
ReplyDeleteOK, enough of the foul language, which technically is disallowed on this blog.
ReplyDeletei'm intrigued by the upcoming earnings for MITK. while the stock has been weak comparatively since September, its clearly still in a big uptrend. since i sold it i have been keeping track of what my 100% position in the stock would be worth today versus my portfolio's value today...I'm happy to report I have finally outperformed it. but in looking at the chart I doubt it will last.
ReplyDeleteif any of you guys still follow MITK i'm sure you noticed that there were some big insider sales a few weeks ago. but the sales relative to remaining positions by these insiders is nothing more than taking a little off the table.
TOF- I'm intrigued also. I'm kinda hoping for this...An EPS misses based on increased staffing on build out. Happens all the time with these guys. Banks up to about 160ish. 15% sell off and we step in!
ReplyDeleteexcellent discourse today. I showed the wife the sony and cher clip the other day That brought back memories. errr, it is ok to show the wife the blog right?
ReplyDeleteHey Portly.
ReplyDeleteLEXVF..Lost track of this one since I took my loss. Wow. That was a BC rec. at over 1.00.
all i did today was get stopped out of my SDS position finally
ReplyDeleteI'm not interested in doing much at this level but I may still try to buy any dips on CF just as a short term hold, 0-3 days or so.
Agree port.
ReplyDeleteMan, David might be on to something here. Take a look at the weekly for AUMN. Just cleared a huge VWAP area. Clear skies above until 16ish.
ReplyDeleteI was checking all the accounts to see how we're set up, about 60% invested mostly in mutual funds in the retirement accounts and 30% invested outside the retirement. Most of the 30% is the wife's ESPP which works out pretty well.
ReplyDeleteThe biggest reason we climb the wall of worry in rallies is because from time to time we do go over the cliff of despair. Today's action looked great. The last 3 days have looked a lot better than the big gap up on Oct 27th.
I'll be real tempted to sell the calls on my SPY strangle tomorrow I'm sure but if Greece and Italy don't matter at the moment then it's rally time.
On the monthly is good until 15ish.
ReplyDeleteBuddy Gartman says oil is going to 100. I didn't get that memo early enough either cuz it's almost there already.
ReplyDeleteCP, i see all those SVM headlines. Is it good or bad? I have 1000 shares around $8 ish after sellng some covered calls that expired.
VAERF.PK - I was going to mention yesterday that this one should be moving up but it's so thin there's probably not much point...
ReplyDeleteport - "i see all those SVM headlines. Is it good or bad?"
ReplyDeleteI tend to believe it's good, we'll find out tomorrow I suppose.
AUMN - I agree, it seems David may have routed out something we shouldn't easily dismiss.
ReplyDeleteAUMN- Sprott brings some game to the name.
ReplyDeleteIf AUMN takes off (more) than it will be on the back of stronger PM's.
ReplyDeleteI've also been stalking PNPFF (the pink sheet version of Pinetree Capital) and it has a nice trend resumption chart going. I hold some shares in a ROTH and I'll add more aggressively on the breakout and more if it has an orderly pullback.
The chart has a nice bowtie and accelerating momentum.
The TLT short/TBT long is just a matter of time.
That TLT parabolic move has to run out of gas sooner or later like it did in December of 08'.
When it breaks I'll go in with a rather large position.
Another nice chart is SWFT which I'll add to if we hold the break in the 200 dma in the SPY and IWM. I have been trading around it when it drops to the mid 8's and off in the low to mid 9's, but I think it could go from 9 to 12 before it hits any real overhead and stalls.
2nd, when I put up a monthly chart of the SPY it struck me how regular and orderly the waves of the cycle were. If a person had a longer view it could be quite profitable. Landry's bowties were a good indicator.
Ah the 70's....
ReplyDeleteJoe Frazier passed away on the 7th. This may bring it back for some of you guys.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-08/frazier-and-ali-in-the-age-of-cosell-part-1-mark-ribowsky.html
RIP Smoken' Joe.
CC- AUMN...Your right, of course, but AUMN might get a little break based on the chart and recent take under of ECU.
ReplyDeleteI'll take a look at PNPFF, thanks.
Now that port's been stopped of SDS, and I've quit playing TZA in disgust- DJIA futes gapping down -248. Right.
ReplyDeleteport- Sure, wives are welcome to read the blog. But they won't. I know b/c mine stopped reading two days after Mark and I started up the blog in 2009.
ReplyDelete"Now that port's been stopped of SDS, and I've quit playing TZA in disgust- DJIA futes gapping down -248. Right."
ReplyDeleteOh of course, and I never got my $27 target on TZA.
Well, maybe we get another chance on the long side at some lower priced goodies that ran up so quickly?
So there's some kind of a default on Italian bonds relating to MF Global, a financial house of cards subsidiary collapsing somewhere?
ReplyDeleteTZA - Yesterday's high was $30.69, and it's not even back there yet?
ReplyDeleteGot your parachutes set?
ReplyDeleteSSRI - This one is well thought of, and they're a money making machine at the present time.
ReplyDeleteAUMN - The beautiful thing about a jr heading toward production is their grades aren't being depleted.
TZA - Still not back to yesterday's high, I smell a bear trap.
ReplyDeleteTZA's not a bear trap. It's a john trap.
ReplyDeleteWoke up late. Why the hard sell off?
ReplyDeleteRemember the opium wars? The Chinese citizenry have been through these currency "periods" before, and even had their access to PM's cut off as a result. Are they reacting rationally (by buying "rocks") to an irrational crisis?:
ReplyDelete"Gold goes viral in China as imports hit just under 2 tonnes per day"
http://www.mining.com/
It's Italy?
ReplyDeleteSVM - Stink bid at $8.10, we've still got that open gap up from $8.31 and I've got to step out to run some errands today...
ReplyDeleteGLTA!
I think it's MF Global default on Italian bonds?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.lchclearnet.com/
Italian bond yields are still trending higher(not good!), but ECB had said they couldn't help until Berlesconi resigned, which he agreed to do, and once that was agreed yesterday markets rallied.
ReplyDeleteI think we can attribute the sell off to Paterno.
ReplyDeletejust checked in to the markets. quite a selloff today. of course i sold my large position in FXP yesterday near the lows....
ReplyDeleteBought some more NOIZ at $7.05 just now.
ReplyDeleteWe are having a sell-off today because I had a dream tonight about a large sell-off that will allow me to reload my TBT position. Seriously. So I just reloaded at $19.55 the 200 shares I sold yesterday at $20.50. If TBT drops another $1, I'll buy some TLT puts. Since ECB has agreed to buying Italian bonds, then they just need to make an announcement that they are planning to step up their buying and the bond vigilantes will chill out.
ReplyDeleteThe timing of this sell-off is pretty bad, though. AUMN was ready to break out, and now its upside momentum is broken...
ReplyDeleteBut then, it is supposed to report earnings in November, and along with them they will give an update on all their exploration activity as well (that's what the rep told me last week). I think a large part of the reason for AUMN going down hard after the merger and then *staying* down is that they have not been putting out any encouraging news to the market, and the market was worried. The November report will dispel those worries and will show everyone that AUMN is on track with its expansion plans in Velardena.
Do you guys really think that AUMN will keep trading as a $300M market cap company once it starts producing $8M AgEqOz annually in 2014, when other companies producing that much silver have a market cap of $2.5B? Regardless of any current price trends, that is an impossibility, and so I suggest you all put away some money in AUMN for a few years AND FORGET ABOUT THEM until AUMN finishes constructing its 2000 tpd mill.
David - Has AUMN gotten all of its licenses and mine approvals in place? The reason I ask is because I thought the same thing of NAK back in 2004 and bought it at $4...I sold it for a nice gain but here we are 7 years later and it's only twice as high as it was then. And they are still fighting for local approval of their mines.
ReplyDeleteAnyone want to go to Panda Express?
ReplyDeleteOne huge negative to unemployment. I have to go to a teacher conference today.
ReplyDeleteROVI- I guess it wasn't a charge :)... Yikes
ReplyDeleteTOF -- AUMN already has a producing mine and two mills. They are only planning to expand the production and to build a new mill. This doesn't require any licenses. And don't forget -- they are planning to DOUBLE the production of gold/silver relative to ECU levels by the end of 2012 by simply increasing the recovery rates from the current two mills and by feeding them higher grade ore (they announced in September that they will spend the rest of 2011 opening up new facings in Velardena so as to allow for higher grade mining in 2012). At they point, they will become cashflow positive. So it is not like they will be without any production until 2014...
ReplyDeleteThe 30-year yield is at 3% now and the 10-year is BELOW 2% now. This cannot stay like that for any extended period of time. So no need to wait until the uptrend in TLT reverses. You can start scaling into TBT now and you will either make a lot of money trading it if the long-term yields stay around 3% (dropping below 3% temporarily and then shooting up as "interventionists" announce their new initiatives) or will see your starter position take off as the yields start their steady rise.
ReplyDeleteTBT has already shot up from my morning purchase at $19.55 to $19.80, despite S&P going lower. Just like in early 2009, we can see equities going down now AND yields going up.
ReplyDelete"The first port of call would likely be the 440-billion euro European Financial Stability Facility. A country can now tap a precautionary promise of support of up to 10 percent of its gross domestic product -- about 160 billion euros in Italy’s case.
ReplyDeleteGerman Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble today told lawmakers that Italy should request aid from the EFSF if it needs it, two people present at the Berlin meeting said.
Higgins at Capital Economics said Italy needs about 650 billion euros to keep out of markets for the next three years, rising to 700 billion euros with support for its banks. Another alternative is the EFSF buys Italian bonds in markets, he said."
If Italy is so important, then just print those damned E700B and keep it out of the market for the next 3 years! Or buying their bonds on a massive scale like Fed did in the US. In any case, this is not an "unresolvable" crisis.
Panda Express is actually quite good.
ReplyDeleteI like Panda, my wife hates it. If you guys have a Pei Wei I would suggest venturing over to it. They are a chain of PF Changs (PFCB, which is an attractive stock to own in my mind).
ReplyDeleteHere are some good articles / clips from Laz:
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/fc1da9e2-ef78-11e0-941e-00144feab49a.html?ftcamp=rss#axzz1dEdsMCZC
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C4xABpqMVzY&feature=player_embedded
Anyone think we bounce again? I don't think so.
ReplyDeleteI picked up some more XWES at $3.7 today. The more I look at this company, its business model, and its growth, the more I like it and want to own more. I think they are in a secular bull market (helping save money on energy costs) that cares not about the overall market.
ReplyDeleteI decided to reload at $7.99 the 500 shares of AUMN that I sold at $8.34 during its 20% bounce last week. If AUMN drops lower tomorrow, I'll sell Dec $7.50 puts on it...
ReplyDeleteIn fact, to make sure that I don't forget, I just placed a sell to open limit order at $0.75 for 10 AUMN December $7.50 puts.
ReplyDeleteHow many think the name of this tune is "Hey Barack, if you want to get re-elected then you need to bail us out too or we'll sink all your 401K's"???
ReplyDeleteKyle- Could be, but who's singing?
ReplyDeleteFirst time dip buyers are getting spanked in a while.
ReplyDeleteMark - believe it's the ECB, but they want the $USD channeled through the IMF...
ReplyDeleteHow come I think if I hit the buy button, it will feel like getting my finger slammed in a car door?
ReplyDeleteKyle- Yeah, that's what I thought you meant.
Did the Gov. of Mich. just take a hit of helium?
ReplyDeleteSounded like it didn't it...
ReplyDeleteHere's one from Grasso...
grassosteve Steve Grasso
its that time again youtube.com/watch?v=N1Nupx…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N1NupxasQWs
ReplyDeleteKyle- OK, that was funny.
ReplyDeleteSo we look to 1218 next right?
ReplyDeleteGrasso was talking the 1215 low from 1 Nov.
ReplyDeleteFib (61.8%, 1576.09, 666.79) = 1228.74, about right here
Okay I'm back from running errands, anybody doing something or wait another couple of days.
ReplyDeleteCP- I recommend waiting. Run a few more errands/take care of a few projects, come back in a week or two.
ReplyDeletewhat game was that character in the video above from again?
ReplyDeletei bought a little more NOIZ again at $7.1...I also bought a little XWES at $3.7. Just nibbling here but I like their strength today. NOIZ for example, just reported stellar earnings and is trading at about 7 times their most recent quarter's earnings run rate. Both are tiny micro cap companies.
As far as timing goes I would tend to agree with 2nd only because the odds are that we will see another 400 pts down again tomorrow. I'm personally focusing on small caps that have a significant amount of strength in their business and/or great balance sheets.
ReplyDeleteOkay, considering I'm still plenty long, I'll be waiting for another couple of days to see if lower prices come to be rather than increasing my risk so early.
ReplyDeleteIf Italy is sunk, could be more dominos about to fall and the cascade might take more than a few hours?
The market will rally when Paterno is allowed to return. Which is not happening.
ReplyDeletePaterno - Isn't that a different movie?
ReplyDeleteMaybe I should say 'ain't happenin'
ReplyDeleteNo- everything in the US is interconnected.
I don't want any associations with Paterno! ;(
ReplyDeleteI must admit I haven't heard the entire story but the highlights sound horrible...
CP- It's really sad. Just avoid it if you can.
ReplyDeleteYa know, CSTR has held in there really well. I wonder what the shorts will do know. Seems all of the catalysts are out there now. Unless, of course, it is a death of the DVD trade.
ReplyDelete..do now..
ReplyDeletePressure building on Italy - that's good news. Means we are closer to the end.
ReplyDeleteFrance is putting its toughest austerity measures since WW2 in place. As far as I can tell, Italy really hasn't done anything. Dysfunctional government makes it hard, but make your own cuts Italy or Germany and France will decide for you, just like Greece.
Either that or sell off your $180 billion in Gold. That would take a big bite out the budget.
Italy - Yeah, they've been acting rather indifferently concerning taking austerity action. And you're right, they should sell their gold, failure to do so may have been capping the price lately.
ReplyDeleteI bet China would gladly trade them some US paper in return, so the replacement world reserve currency can be gold backed?
BB - Yep that's part of the reason I was thinking it was smart to short GLD...because I think I could definitely see central banks selling their gold to raise $$ to pay off debts. But we shall see.
ReplyDeleteCSTR catalyst: Streaming partner, promised to come before year end.
So we were down big today huh? I guess that means the Fast Money traders are now bearish. They were probably bullish yesterday. I'd love to see the portfolio returns for that crew of traders.
TOF- Yeah, I was referring to short catalysts.
ReplyDeleteWas laughing at the lunch time fast money - you'd think we were almost back down 20% the way they were talking.
ReplyDeleteI'm not a conspiracist, but I do wonder if the big players (ECB, Germany, France, US) aren't just letting the Italian rates rise to give the Italians a big kick in the ass.
BB - Given the way things have leaked out over the years about intervention happening when people speculated it was, I don't think that conspiracy theory is that far stretched. The EFSF balance is large enough to tackle the Italian refunding needs. I remember posting about the total needs and they were smaller than the amounts they set aside. There will most definitely be some Euro money printing to cover everything. That's part of the reason why I find it hard to be bearish. Values of paper currency continue to go down over time so the flip side is that EPS should continue to go up, providing support for the markets.
ReplyDeleteI agree TOF. Used to be "don't fight the fed", now it's "don't fight the world's monetary authorities".
ReplyDeleteBusinesses are smart and will take advantage of low rates to make huge $.
It also implies gold should stay high, but I just have a tough time getting that to make sense given that everything but gold has had a major correction. Platinum was down about $450 in September and gold was only down $300 and it is still $150 below gold.
Looks like Bill is setting up companies left-n-right...#99596
ReplyDeleteAEM - Doesn't look like much risk remains in this chart.
ReplyDeleteThe 1-hour chart of S&P futures shows that all spikes down since 1180 on 10/11 are lying on a single straight line, and today's spike down stopped right on that line. If the futures rebound tomorrow without breaking that line, then the bullish case will be that much stronger...
ReplyDeleteman i'm really liking the pullbacks in OPEN, TZOO, and MITK. I think you could do pretty damn well investing in those suckers over the course of the next 5 years. I also think this XWES could be a big long term winner...here's an oldie but goodie article on them:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.xconomy.com/boston/2009/07/30/making-carbon-credits-count-world-energy-upgrades-green-exchange-marketplace/
in case you couldn't tell, i really like the online / mobile business model. its just so damn scalable and, contrary to what people believe, hard to replicate if you're the category leader. people think its so easy to start up a website and compete with others because the barriers to entry are low, but that's just not true. the cost of building out a list of customers over a number of years is very high. look at how much money GRPN has lost over the past few years building out their business. they would have been way better off just buying TZOO and their 20 million or so subscribers.
"don't fight the world's monetary authorities".
ReplyDeleteAren't these the same guys who always bought, actually own, and are set to buy more of the debt from private(bankrupt/insolvent) hands?
Yep, they might just find it necessary to print enough currency to cover that debt, which I believe was the plan in the first place thus conveniently, no asset-backed currencies.
By definition, fractional reserve has no reverse gear; deflation quickly kills the goose.
We all know what it is, yet so many are intent on denying for political purposes.
TM - Not a heck of a lot of loss there today, considering the magnitude of today's recall announcement?
ReplyDeleteMight be wise not to try picking bottoms though, at least not without thorough examination of the chart...
"they would have been way better off just buying TZOO and their 20 million or so subscribers."
ReplyDeleteThat's a very good point!
Brandt weighs in on MF Global fiasco(Sounds like serious sh*t)...
ReplyDeletehttp://peterlbrandt.com/
S&P - I see two targets: 1011 and 1397...
ReplyDelete