http://finance.yahoo.com/focus-retirement/article/113751/retirement-crisis-closes-baby-boomers-reuters?mod=fidelity-readytoretire&cat=fidelity_2010_getting_ready_to_retire
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Late-mortgage-payments-up-in-apf-213422272.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=6&asset=&ccode=
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/US-poverty-at-new-high-16-apf-2840636182.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=7&asset=&ccode=
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/financial-literacy-is-a-big-fat-wall-street-hoax-2011-11-08?pagenumber=2
BB- Mood swings are part of the human psyche, and I'm not immune to the yin/yang cycle. The four links above are representative of recent articles that dovetail well with my own observations re the American economy. The Obama administration, or the one that succeeds it, needs to successfully address: (a) the widening income gap, (b) healthcare costs that make up a disproportionately high percentage of GDP, (c) the looming Boomer retirement crisis, and (d) widespread distrust of (presumably) dysfunctional financial markets.
Below is an example of a guy who offers some good ideas re (b):
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-to-live-100-healthy-years-2011-11-08
2nd - Good post and links. The dysfunctionality exists in so many directions, it's hard to keep track sometimes. I still like shark's remarks on the 401K-403B 'Herding Scam' as I call it...
ReplyDeleteRe: Tar Pit
Submitted by shark_attack (1452 comments) on Tue, 02/17/2009 - 11:39 #12124 (in reply to #12121)
Rob,
You've touched upon one of my favorite topics.
I call the previous 20 year period "The Great Retirement Scam", A period in which Johnny lunch-pail was turned into Johnny 401-k for the benefit of Wall Street and no one else. You know how markets work, right? Do you really think that when all the baby boomers retire/get fired all at once and try to cash in those dubious financial instruments, do you really really think they're all gonna retire rich like Wall Street said they would? Is that how markets work? Of course it isn't. Those people are going to be screwdoodled of course, that's what the market does to most ordinary folks. It's SUPPOSED to.
Kyle- Exactly. I'm toying with the idea of leaving paper assets behind. There must be other ways of averaging 7% a year. The casino, as they say, will still be here if/when we decide to return.
ReplyDeleteWe're quite fortunate to have taken the 20% gain in October, which puts us within 5% of all-time highs. Why not take chips off the Wall Street table for now.
ReplyDelete2nd - Trust your instincts. From what I've seen in your posts they're 'pretty damn good!!!'
ReplyDeleteI was just listening to Bloomberg talking about Raytheon officials testifying on the Hill today re. fake components from China in FLIR systems for Navy helicopters. All you have to do is turn on the tube, wait 15 sec. and you find out something else is F'ed up. You just can't keep track of it all...
2nd, sad stories I agree.
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure they are particularly relevant in how the stock market will behave the next few years. Companies are managing themselves well and generating good profits and their stocks are generally cheap.
There will always be winners and losers in society and some people having done very well by 401K's and others have lost. I know personally, my 401K return is much, much higher since I am managing it myself instead of being in a standard pension fund.
You can always find stuff to worry about. I think you have to ignore the bad news noise to some degree and just focus on companies and stocks. For example, Alcoa which
you used to own. They are probably cutting jobs and pensions, etc. (I don't know), but they are one of the lowest cost producers of aluminum in the world, transportation companies need low weight metals like aluminum to reduce energy usage, their stock is really cheap and they could easily earn $2 per share in a few years. Seems like should be a good money maker and, in fact, the current malaise you describe actually gives you the chance to buy cheaper than you should be able to.
You can't really fix the problems you described above. All you can do is work the system you're given and do the best you can for you and your family.
By the way - I would stay away from reading Farrel. In my opinion he is just a hyperbolic doomsdayer and provides no value in investing.
Yeah, something's up with Farrell. He used to be a pretty good read- I followed his Lazy Portfolio updates as comparisons to gains achieved via active trading. In the last year he seems to have abandoned all hope for the US economy.
ReplyDelete2nd, I'd hate to see you give up on the market now. It shouldn't be very hard to make 7% a year going forward with current values in the market.
ReplyDeleteWe've had a rough couple of years with the financial crisis, but it is getting closer to the end than the beginning. Plus, you in the US had a major problem the last decade with your market being so overvalued in 2000, but that has been worked through as well. I always go back to WMT because it is so obvious. They've had a 20%+ ROE every year since 2000. They've move than doubled their sales and profits and increased their dividend every year, yet the stock has gone nowhere because the stock was so expensive relative to the value of the business in 2000. The difference is the stock is cheap now and you've still got a 20% ROE business with increasing dividends.
BB- It won't be hard making 7% a year in the absence of further substantial pullbacks. What would you say the odds are of another -20% pullback within the next year?
ReplyDeleteKyle- Speaking of instincts, my wife and I finally decided to purchase earthquake insurance last week, on the heels of temblors in the E Bay. (After foregoing earthquake insurance for 20 years.)
ReplyDeleteNot that I know crap about earthquakes.
ReplyDelete2nd - When you get that thought that usually begins with 'You know, it might be time to consider doing/getting ...' that's the sub-conscious trying to 'save your ass'. I'm sure of it.
ReplyDelete"Whether you're a lion or a gazelle when the sun comes up you better be running" an old quote that Grasso just mentioned.
Also, I don't think you're going to miss much in the market (except perhaps several years of side-ways action). The 3 recent tops in 00, 07 & 11 look like 68, 73 & 76 say, but w/ no Reagan in sight and too much deficit spending already. We need to approach/clear some recent highs (like in 80-82) for you to miss much...
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/historical/spx1960.html
I'm really not sure about that. There will obviously be pullbacks, but 20% would be a large one. I'm not anticipating that.
ReplyDeleteI don't know if you want to trade stocks or funds. If you want to trade stocks, I've been thinking recently that the old Bill Cara way may be a good one in the current environment. You know, the one where you pick 100 really solid businesses, then buy when low, sell when high to get the cycle leverage. I think we are going to see stocks starting to move more on their own fundamentals as opposed to the latest Greek headline as the crisis fades. This will mean the cycles for individual stocks won't all be in synch as they have been.
The way I do it is to look for really cheap generally smaller stocks and sell when they approach fair value. It works well, but is a fairly time intensive approach.
The nice thing about both of these approaches is you have money going in and out on a regular basis, so you can take advantage of market swings. Most stocks I hold for 2 or 3 years till they appear fully valued to me, but some I've held over 10 years. I've held WMT for 3 years (bought around $45) and will hold it as long as valuation stays reasonable and business continues well. If it jumped to say $120 tomorrow though, it would be gone.
The big advantage we have in the market now is stocks are cheap, bonds and precious metals are
expensive. People will have to sell bonds and probably PM's and move into stocks over the next several years. We should finally have a tailwind again.
The other thing to think about is the Warren Buffet factor.
ReplyDeleteHe's only made 4 market calls according to Whitney Tilson. He was bullish in 1974 and 1979, bearish in 1999 and bullish again in 2008. Was right the first 3 times, I think he will be again.
Plus, he said recently all of his businesses are doing well other than the housing related ones.
One other though - don't get caught up in this Europe is bad, it's going to ruin the world crap.
ReplyDeleteHigh rates in Greece forced them to make the hard decisions they haven't been able to make in 40 years and the same thing is happening in Italy now.
Will be beneficial for the world economy in the long run.
I agree with BB...the basic fact is where in the hell are we going to get the returns we need to retire or live life like we want to? It sure as hell ain't gonna be with treasurys, it most likely won't be with real estate, commodities / precious metals are very high compared to a decade ago...
ReplyDeleteEvery good comments guys. I wont ruin it by adding anything.
ReplyDeleteBB- Good point re Buffett. That's kind of what I'm thinking- stretches of 'doing nothing' followed by stretches of being long, using shorter time frames.
ReplyDeleteDavid - the initial response to NLS earnings is positive. I think this company is dirt cheap right here...they have turned the corner on profitability and have some clear growth drivers in works. With $11 Million in cash in a boost from $30 Million in after tax losses carried forward, a valuation of $60 Million for the entire company is kind of silly.
ReplyDelete"With $11 Million in cash AND a boost from $30 Million"
ReplyDeleteFLIR - I've been watching that ticker and wondering if they're the ones making the system for Raytheon but haven't been able to verify it.
ReplyDeleteSo it looks like Raytheon's system is fake? It must work, or perhaps it doesn't work?
Gotta love the media for their vagueness.
TZA - Okay, so I've got a bid on this one at @ $27...
ReplyDeleteItaly - I guess I've missed out on why the market doesn't seem so concerned over Italy's debt problems...
ReplyDeleteAUMN - Nice action there this morning, looks like it's ready to run.
ReplyDeleteSPY - Back over the 200SMA now, wonder if it can hold onto it? I have my doubts, especially since I don't understand why we're giving Italy such an easy pass and we're not done with that gap up over the 50SMA.
ReplyDeleteCan't argue with success though.
cp - there's a vote going on in Italy now. I'm wondering how the Iranian nuclear weapons report is going to play & of course the grid-lock of the debt committee...
ReplyDeleteMan, this shit gives me a headache. I have no idea WTF to do.
ReplyDeleteNLS- Nice little bull flag.
ReplyDeleteMark - Yeah I have about 30k shs of NLS and I'm probably just gonna hold on to them...they could make a nice run up.
ReplyDeleteTOF- How many units do NLS sell in Italy every year?
ReplyDelete2nd,
ReplyDeleteThe hard part for me is figuring out when to do nothing and when to go long. That's why I buy and sell based on my concept of value for a stock and never go 100% in or out.
You think back to the March, 2009 low - there was nothing that said to buy at that point. The selling just kind of ended and it went up. Same this August - the market was going along fine, then all of a sudden a big drop.
Saut over at Raymond James has had a pretty good read on the market the past couple of years, but if you read his stuff, he's never completely out, uses stop losses and edges in and out of positions.
Long 3500 FXP at $27.39
ReplyDeletecp 200 dma is actually 1272 i posted abt this earlier but post was deleted...short term we need to gget above it
ReplyDeletecp 200 dma is actually 1272 i posted abt this earlier but post was deleted...short term we need to gget above it
ReplyDeletetof- Can't say you lack conviction.
ReplyDelete2nd - a short FXI trade set up is ideal right here....the market still has a lot of overhead resistance and it's right at the 200 DMA. FXI ran right up to the August resistance at $38.5ish and people are expecting a lower inflation number to spark a run in China stocks. maybe it will but I think a lot of people are expecting that. So why not short FXP and get stopped out above $39 FXI? Seems like a pretty low risk trade to me.
ReplyDelete200SMA - Ah, yes, I've got 1273.05 for S&P
ReplyDeleteAdded another 500 shs FXP at $27.3...using $39 FXI as a stop out or if we break above 1,280
ReplyDelete"TOF- How many units do NLS sell in Italy every year? "
ReplyDeleteMark - hehe no idea.
"teamonfuego said...
ReplyDeleteI agree with BB...the basic fact is where in the hell are we going to get the returns we need to retire or live life like we want to? It sure as hell ain't gonna be with treasurys, it most likely won't be with real estate, commodities / precious metals are very high compared to a decade ago...
November 8, 2011 6:24 AM"
When I am in need of perspective, I put up a long (wayyyyy long, like 16 years) of the SPY and of the TLT. now TLT only goes back to 2002, but look at how you would have done sticking to T's instead of the SPY!
As they say, every dog has his day and at some point the game is over, debt comes to call and short the T's will play out. For those that play the cycles it will be fat times, but B&H is for suckers when you look at the super long monthly SPY.
Now, focus on that TLT chart. THINK about buffet's moves and when he acts. He buys equities when the T's are parabolic like they are now. I know David has his eyes on TBT as he should. Parabolic moves all end badly and TBT will be the beneficiary. If we play it right there is money to print on that move and retirement in the headlights.
As far as PM's, commodities, etc, the climb is so steady it's hard to know. The world is shrinking, resources are in short supply and I don't think the world's people will change their cultural views of their value. Not that they can't go down but they will always have value depending on where you got it.
TOF, I don't know where you got into NLS but that $3 a share doesn't look so hot right now.
Good thing I took partial profits yesterday.
Mark - Gillette doesn't do much business in Italy, or Europe for that matter...
ReplyDeleteSPY buy and hold did great from 1983 through 2000. Problem was valuations got way out of whack. 16 years of stocks going nowhere helps get valuations back to the good side.
ReplyDeleteWhen you read how bonds have outperformed stocks over a 30 year period for teh firxt time since the civil war, you know you are getting to the end of the bond trade.
Good article by Doug Kass at street.com:
http://www.thestreet.com/story/11302491/1/the-bullish-stars-are-aligned.html?kval=dontmiss?CM_VEN=AD|TWR|JC
Says he's most bullish he's been in a year. A couple of key points:
As a contrarian I rejoice in the fact that individual investors have redeemed $420 billion of domestic equity funds over the past five years while contributing $830 billion to (low-yielding) fixed-income products. That swing, of $1.25 trillion, since early 2007 is, by far, an all-time record change in preference of bonds over stocks.
The de-risking is not confined to retail investors, as, according to this week's ISI Hedge Fund Survey, hedge funds' net long exposure is the lowest since the generational low in March 2009.
and:
I lastly want to address current valuations, which I view as attractive. Risk premiums (the earnings yield less the risk-free rate of return) stand at a multi-decade high, placing stocks, in theory, even cheaper than at the March 2009 bottom
TBT - Yeah, my issue with T's is my feeling Bernanke needs to keep rates low, and so he's gonna manage T's as a first priority?
ReplyDeleteRates aren't going to remain low for an eternity if the economy does pick up (is the "slow" economy the real reason for low rates, or is the real reason to provide cheap money for banks to speculate with?).
As long as rates remain low, PM's (look at PM miner share prices, OMG, I think they're cheap) will maintain their attractiveness.
SVM - If this sucker can get past 15, I've got my beach house in the bag (assuming it's still there by then) and next summer will be spent on a remodel.
ReplyDeleteBB - Even though I'm well aware of Doug Kass' propensity to only publish things that support his position (and to follow up with it on TV and other media outlets like a charlatan), I agree with his article for the longer term. The equity markets are the only way we're going to get to where we want to get financially. The fact is the market is cheap for a reason: there are a lot of risks associated with Europe / China / Iran / middle east / etc. If it weren't for those risks our markets would be at 1,500+. If the Europe problems subside then we're looking at another leg higher.
ReplyDeleteTZA - Canceled the $27 order...
ReplyDeleteFRO - When is this POS gonna start flying?
ReplyDeleteI don't buy totally into the 'valuations' idea.
ReplyDeletePeople cook numbers and valuations are a product of their home cooking. Emotions matter. I mean, look at the markets right now. good valuations yet euro debt has the market chained to the porch. Shit happens.
I think TOF is essentially right. Of course it never plays out exactly like we think, but at some point the cheap money (whether egg or chicken) together with political pressure (OWS/Tea Party/everyone good and F'ing tired of this BS) will start to drive more growth.
I don't know what the cause will be, but humans have a way of overcoming crap. when that happens and money velocity picks up interest rates will run much higher (maybe we see a homemade Amero situation) due to our own debt. I don't see that as altogether bad. I think we would be doing a lot better had we allowed the banks to go tits up and let the savers and the non-borrowers make their due to recapitalize the banks. At least the responsible people would have been spending money and everyone else would have gone BK and written it all off with one big ass bandaid pull off instead of this painfully slow downward spiral with 0% interest rates almost no one can use.
When the euro deal finally peaks I think we will see a big run, and then OUR debt will come in focus (keeping fingers crossed for Uber Committee)and those that have part of an iron in the fire will benefit. I'm splitting my port into two parts.
One with some risk on and the other in the Landry momentum side waiting for the run and a pullback to go long. I AM confident that at some point I will be printing money, I just hope it's worth something when I get there.
CC,
ReplyDeleteto me it feels like we are getting to the end of the Euro mess and people are starting to look at stocks. I believe Greece is fully priced into the markets and Italy's hand is being forced right now.
Look how stocks have stopped reacting to every Euro-headline. Unless something completely unexpected happens, I think people move towards a more normalized way of valuing stocks which implies upwards.
$silver - I expect if this one can hold $34.48, there's a fair chance of reaching $55~$60 sometime next year...
ReplyDelete$1800 $gold here, was my new target for Thanksgiving but if copper moves on up maybe, just maybe, I get my original $2000 target?
Come on Berl Ives!!!
CP, I haven't looked at the chart, but I'm hearing on Bubble vision that oil is moving up.
ReplyDeleteMy platinum holdings are doing pretty good and Landry mentioned the silver/gold trade on the charts last night.
TOF, Knock out move in NLS. I'm holding a small position but will add if the trend resumes.
ReplyDeleteIf not....that's what stops are for.
I'll tell you what the trouble is right now with valuations.
ReplyDeleteLook at the charts. See all those bars ABOVE where we are now? A LOT of people thought valuations were good ABOVE where we are now.
It is human nature to try to get a return OF capital when we climb up there which is going to mean it will be a slow slog through all that overhead supply. Value is relative and in most cases based on emotion. (See my view on PM's and their cultural value...IE: same thing).
cc - Agree, that's similar to what I was trying to point out w/ the link
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/freecharts/historical/spx1960.html
the 119 (72-73), 107-106 (77-78) highs were, of course, eventually overcome (80-81), but there was still the retest down to 103 (82)...
Seems like backfilling and consolidation, I'm mentally prepared for a pullback though.
ReplyDeleteI'm not a chart guy, so you're likley better qualified to comment on those dynamics, but take a look at some markets outside the US (eg. EWM, EWG, EWQ, EWZ). To me these look like pretty solid head and shoulder bottoms and, for the most part, you've got that 10% - 15% drop from the August first drop which would have little supply in here until we hit the larger overhead.
ReplyDelete10% - 15% before year-end would be fine by me.
The reason I say look at other countries is I find a lot of market moves aren't really changes in the market any more, just changes in currency values, so you need to look at multiple markets to get a complete picture.
ReplyDelete"Physical activity is paramount to a healthy, long life — and you can reap the benefits at any age. The opposite is also true: inactivity can be deadly, Bortz says."
ReplyDeleteI am amazed to see how well some 60-year olds move in my table tennis club. Naturally, above a certain level of the game, footwork and body motion become critical (positioning your body properly relative to the ball, so that your strike will not be a muscle motion in the arm but a twist of the body with a fully relaxed arm following the body). I've seen a 70-year old man tell me that after he started playing table tennis, he got in a better shape than when he was at 50. I hope I'll be able to keep playing until I am 70...
bb -- All I see is correlation...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.sectorspdr.com/correlation/
Put in EWS & EWZ for 6 months....it's 0.95
Today marks the 3rd day in a row that the bears have dropped the ball...I fully expect to be stopped out of my FXP position or at least stop myself out if FXI closes at $38.5 or so today. The CPI stat coming out tonight will most likely goose it even higher. As BB said, FXI (and others) is clearly putting together an Inverted H&S chart pattern which over the past couple of years has turned out to be a very powerful pattern.
ReplyDeleteAll right, TOF -- I'll trust your valuation instincts on NLS. I just picked up 3000 shares at $1.90. Here is to it becoming another REDF and going up to $6 next month! :)
ReplyDeleteWe are IN the June supply right now.
ReplyDeleteAlso the 200 DMA, the 61.8 Fib retracement.
We have yet to overcome and hold the 200.
That would be a major consideration but once there I expect we will get more chop as those who were in higher step aside.
Also, look at those bars. Big up bar, and island reversal and the big down bar and a short retrace.
I'm not a big Fibonacci guy, but it matters because some traders are. I am also watching these other indicators because they are also watched by technicians. I don't pay much attention to the other country/ETF's because they all pretty much move in unison with us and I trade U.S. equities and commodities so I watch the SPY, QQQ's and the Russell.
If this market is going to be strong it has to act like it. I think some really good news out of Europe and the Uber Committee could go a long way, but right now we are still stuck in the sideways range where we were in June.
IOW, either you are a ST trader and you take em when you can, or you are flat since June.
Excepting the notion you bought on the dip you mentioned in which case you have profits to defend, which isn't a bad thing. Right? LOL!
AUMN is outperforming GDXJ today! The 20% jump last week also followed a few days of AUMN outperforming GDXJ...
ReplyDeleteHey guys, I think they've worked all of this out.
ReplyDeleteBerlusconi is going to run the National Restaurant Association, and Herman Cain is going to go to Italy to sell pizza.
Rumor has it that Dominique Strauss-Kahn is miffed as a result of missing the opportunity at the NRA.
Go AUMN!
ReplyDeleteGo TBT! :)
ReplyDeletecc - sweet man!!!
ReplyDeleteI'm probably just gonna sell my FXP position at a pretty big hit of about $3k. Ouch. This action in the markets is VERY reminiscent of the fall of 2010. What worked best then? Small caps.
ReplyDeleteAnother thing that worked really well back then: AGQ...well, all PM stocks.
ReplyDeletetof - You've got guts man. Don't 'hang it out there too far'. This is a very dangerous market.
ReplyDeleteBack in 2010 we had QE2 and it was 'fresh' and excited the markets; we still may get something QE3 like, but perhaps closer to the election????
i don't understand why my posts keep getting deleted but oh well. kyle - a move of $3k isn't really a big deal versus the usual moves I get in my positions on a daily basis. The more I think about short FXI (long FXP) the more I like the setup here. I fully expect a gap higher tomorrow on the CPI data to clear out shorts and then a move down. To this end I have decided to sell my SPY position which was my largest position at $127.5. I will either buy again on a big move down or I will buy at above $130.
ReplyDeleteThe market is confused: $USD is down AND silver/gold are down??? GDXJ is down 1.4% already and it is holding AUMN back!
ReplyDeleteTOF- That's happened to some people before. It did once for me and I logged out and back in. Seemed to fix it.
ReplyDeletetof - I think it has to do with NOT Drinking Enough, but I could be wrong....
ReplyDeleteI decided to lower my sell limit order to $20.50 and just sold 200 shares of TBT that I reloaded yesterday at $19.65.
ReplyDeletenot sure if this post will work since none of them are but i'm glad i sold my FXP at $26.3. that was a terrible trade.
ReplyDeleteAUMN: I imagine that there are many more people waiting for it to return to $7.50 than those waiting to sell it on any further bounce. So it probably isn't coming back to $7.50 any time soon, possibly never...
ReplyDeleteI bought a small amount of NOIZ today at about 7.22 average before the close. This is another company that came up on my screener for companies experiencing rapid earnings growth.
ReplyDeleteAUMN - Yep, she's climbing again after retracing some of those earlier gains (was this a 50% retrace, I've not looked that closely).
ReplyDeleteOh man, STEC is going to get killed when the halt is lifted.
ReplyDeleteMark: "04:15 PM EST, 11/08/2011 (MidnightTrader) -- STEC (STEC) reports Q3 non-GAAP EPS of $0.14 on sales of $72.5 million. The Street view is for EPS of $0.10 on sales of $70.71 million."
ReplyDeleteBy the way, just noticed that FTEK reported a good quarter. That sucker looks cheap and maybe just maybe it's beginning to fulfill on it's promise
F - Looks like this one closed a gap down today, will be interesting to see how this works out the next few days.
ReplyDeleteTOF- STEC guided to a -.01 loss in Q4.
ReplyDeleteAnyone follow ROVI? Something seems wrong there. One time charge?
ReplyDeleteFELE - That was a very nice run off the bottom if you ask me...
ReplyDeleteSVM - Earnings report:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/silvercorp-reports-revenue-up-71-to-621-million-and-record-operating-cash-flow-up-140-to-352-million-in-the-2nd-quarter-of-fiscal-2012-2011-11-08-171300
FTEK - Yep, very nice gain there today, looks like they've got it going in the right direction there.
ReplyDeleteSVM - One year ago earnings were $0.08 @ $12.62PPS:
PPS $12.62 / .08= 157.75 ratio
157.75 ratio * $0.14=$22.085 PPS
"Berlusconi promises to resign amid Italy debt woes"
ReplyDeleteThis is good, I believe, ECB refused to proceed unless this happened.
Hey,no comments since CP @ 3:15. OK, I'll dive in:
ReplyDeleteNot trading recently. Just holding a few losers that are too cheap to sell (BTU, MRO, GTY). Waiting in cash for the big downdraft. Most recent purchase is PHYS which was bought at a very small premium (its physical gold in Canada). I am not Canadian.
Downdraft/Collapse? ... I think its coming because of the European situation which is a contagion. We are all intertwined, brothers.
Illini,
ReplyDeleteI think Europe will be OK. Greece is being written down and rates going over 7% in Italy are forcing theit government to make the hard decisions they otherwise would avoid. It appears that one of the biggest changes in governing being forced by the Euro is these Southern European countries are being forced to address their real issues, not just devalueing them away. This is better in the long run.
By the way, what did you ever do with KCLI?