ON Friday, sold 200 TBT at 20.42 that I had bot earlier in the week at 19.67. I had a limit sell order in place for 20.55 but it didn't look like we were going to make that so I dropped the limit order to 20.42 during the last 20 min of trading. Thx David. I just didn't want to go into the weekend with any more shares than what I already have.
Yep, it'll be interesting to see how it goes this week...
(EU) Eurozone bailout fund Submitted by Vadym Graifer (2664 comments) on Sun, 11/13/2011 - 11:36 #99825 (EU) Eurozone bailout fund (EFSF) forced to buy its own debt as outside investors shy away - London Telegraph - Telegraph reports that the EFSF was only able to successfully sell a €3B 10-year offering in support of Ireland last week by buying some of the debt itself. The EFSF bought over €100M of its own debt in the offering to help close a shortfall after outside investors bought only €2.7B, and other European Union funds are said to have also been used to support the bond sale. - The Telegraph says this amounts to a "major failure" of the EFSF, after its officials toured Asia seeking investors last week, and will put added pressure on the ECB to become the lender of last resort for the Eurozone, a position the ECB has strongly resisted.
**REMINDER: on 11/10 the EFSF's Regling said the fund's leverage may be lower than previously expected, to be 3-4x rather than 4-5x; still possible that fund could reach €1T in leveraging. Noted that investors would like to see more detail on plans for leveraging the fund, does not expect the fund to raise hundreds of billions in funds by the end of 2011.
Mad did a webinar posting Wed evening and I listened to it yesterday.
He's bullish on S&P through the end of the year. His initial target was 1275 which has already been hit and his secondary target is 1350. Sounds like he thinks we roll over first quarter next year, mostly due to a recession that starts in Europe and spreads to the US. So he has TBT in the trader alert portfolio and he thinks its safe to buy in the 19.50's but he's also thinking it will trade as high as $24.00 on the year end rally and he plans to exit for a loss there. I bet he's been reading David's post here. No comment on what he thinks if we hit 1350 sooner rather than later.
I also bot 7 DEC 124 SPY puts at 3.56 on Friday, currently underwater. Mostly because I thought we might get more fireworks out of Europe this weekend but if I were to guess now, before the futures open, I would say we're going to gap up. I really would have preferred putting on another strangle but those take more time to do and I just didn't have that luxury at the end of the day. I'll be out of these DEC SPY puts by Wed.
And the Jan 121/124 SPY strangle is positive about $50.00 so I'm hoping some bigger moves in one direction for awhile. Down would be ok but since I'm net long, running on up to 1350 would be fine too.
CSCO - I have 1000 shares at around $20.00 after selling some covered calls. I kept these shares because I was in INTC around $22.00 before it dropped. I got impatient and sold $19.00 strike covered calls and they were called away. It sure has taken CSCO a lot longer to recover though. I've had some of these shares since last Nov. I suppose if I would have used CC's method (or what I think ur method is) and set stops I would have only been down at most 2% of the portfolio.
I think that's a pretty good method but it takes a lot of discipline to enforce. I think my problem is once I get stopped out of a stock, like CSCO or INTC for example, the stock is DEAD TO ME and I don't watch it for another or proper setup. The wash sale rules for non retirement accounts don't help either.
Here, this will kill 2 minutes. Video of Kendra's quarter final game last weekend. She's #23 and scores the first 2 goals. The first one is lame, but at least she used her left foot!
Good morning, over the weekend I was worried that TBT might get away from its current "value" region, and instead of waiting to buy the customary 200 shares at $19.50, I placed buy limit orders for 100 shares at $20.00 and $19.50, so that if both of them get executed, I will have TBT at the average cost of $19.75. So far, only the buy limit at $20 got executed.
port2013 -- good call selling your TBT on Friday at $20.42. Now you can reload it at $19.7X! I think scaling into TBT below $20 is very safe, as there will be MANY rallies to $21 to sell into.
afternoon gents, took half a day off to run errands and of course i can't do that until after i give the market a looking over
sold my 7 dec 124 spy puts that i bot at 3.56 for 4.10, that was a lucky trade. I'm just going to hang on to my jan spy strangle for now.
bot 650 TBT at 19.93 and put them out at 21.40 on a good till cancel order. That's becaue I may not be paying attn on market rally day. Sometimes I'll convert these over to a trailing stop order if I'm around when it starts to move.
ALso put out an order to buy 400 shares of EPM at 6.80. If I get these I'll put out an gtc order to sell at $7.20.
For now, unless I get different vibes from Minyanville, Mad, John Markam, or CNBC tone, I'm done buying the SPY puts other than strangles. I may play SDS and SSO intraday and possible carry overnight but those will be smaller positions and at least I can sell those in extended hours trading. FYI, I was busy at the office this morn so I have not even cked out Minyanville's tone for the day.
Looks like the retest of OPEN at around $38.3 close was tested and failed last week in what may have been a false breakdown. I think this is an excellent spot to go long and use as a stop out below $38 on a close.
On a second thought, in order to use my buying power more sparingly, I cancelled the buy limit order for 500 shares of AUMN and instead placed a buy limit order for 10 December $5 AUMN calls at $2.70.
All right, my buy limit order for 10 December $5 AUMN calls was just executed at $2.70.
Now, I can reset my AUMN "money pump" to lower levels, placing sell limit orders at $8 and $8.50 for 500 shares (thus, scaling out of some part of the shares I have accumulated at around $7.60 over the past couple of months). If AUMN surges past $8.50, then I'll be happy for my AUMN call options lifting up my portfolio.
MITK mixed shelf of 100M. Initial 800K shares @ 8.41...If I'm reading that correctly. I was surprised they 'ran out of time' and only took 2 questions.
'The only way this company is making money is by fooling investors to buy its stock. I just don't understand how people fall for these bad investments. The company's stock based compensation alone is almost higher than its revenue. This is a huge red flag! Also, the recent run up in the stock price is very dangerous. This is because once the stock options start getting exercised it will cause massive dilution. Once this stock crashes, which it surely will, it will crash hard. That I can guarantee!Anybody who buys a stock like this needs to do one thing and one thing only, take some basic accounting and finance classes. That's the best advice you will ever get.'
1. The Germans (and the Dutch and Finns, et al.) can simply take their export surplus and taxes and savings and pay for the deficits in the southern zone until such time as they can be brought under control. Or they can bail out all the banks. Not just their own but throughout Europe, as a customer without a banking system cannot buy your products. That seems to be a political non-starter.
2. The problem countries can make the extremely painful adjustments, cut their deficits, and enter into a lengthy pepression. That also seems to be a political non-starter.
3. The Eurozone can forgive enough debt to get the various countries back to a place where they can function, nationalizing the banks that hold the debt, which would lead to a Europe-wide deep recession. Possible if the Eurozone leaders can sell it, but it is a tough sell.
4. A few countries (2? 3? 4?) can leave the Eurozone. If this is not done in an orderly fashion, the chaos will reverberate around the world.
All of the above paths (or some combination of them) mean a banking crisis and chaos and long-term recessions. These are not pretty paths. But the above options assume that the ECB remains true to its Bundesbank core. Which brings us to the next “solution.”
Where Is the ECB Printing Press?"
The path of least resistance, and I use that term guardedly, is for the ECB to find its printing press. Perhaps they can borrow one from Bernanke. Yes, I know they are buying sovereign debt now, but they are “sterilizing” it, meaning they sell euro paper to offset the monetary base effects (large oversimplification, I know).
But the money to solve the crisis does not exist. The only way to find it is for the ECB to print money and print in size, enough to lower the value of the euro and make exports cheaper (which gives southern Europe a chance to grow out of its problems). Which is of course something the Germans vehemently oppose, as it goes against their core DNA coding.
But the choice is print or let the euro perish. I see no other realistic solution, aside from massive austerity, willingly accepted by Europeans everywhere, along with the nationalization of their banks, etc., as described above. I think there is even less willingness to endure all that. ****
Now imagine, once ECB announces that they finally start printing (and it looks like this is just a matter of time), the markets will take off like crazy, led by precious metals.
$100M to be issued as stock, preferred, warants, debit, etc.
There is an additional 800K current shares for sale. These proceeds do NOT got to MITK, but the seller. Must be an insider. Price is an average for registration purposes. ..........
So, they are willing to increase their outstanding shares by 33% at current prices if it's all common, and you know it will be with some warrants thrown in.
And my take by the way the call ended? This is what was said after 2 questions...'Ok, thanks, we are out of time for questions. Thanks for coming.'
This is what I heard...'Hey Dad, sorry, got to run. Oh, by the way, I crashed your car on the way to the Dr's to confirm the pregnancy test. Ciao!!'
MITK - Article on how banks are covering their backsides by raising fees wherever they can (NYT). USB add's 50 cents for every check deposited by mobile. Ouch! If you have a lot of checks just drive down to the nearest branch. (I have been out of MITK since July 29 at $9.21, have been reducing risk and not trading much).
Or as my Dad used to say: M-F..ing C-S..ers. Only when his temper really flared and not in the presence of females. I take after my Mom but have heard it all. LOL.
Graphene - A collection of articles on the subject of graphene:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.elementinvesting.com/investing_in_graphene.htm
cp - Excellent find. A very nice site indeed. Wow!
ReplyDeleteBB- TRX..Looks like I was right.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.miningweekly.com/article/tanzania-royalty-sees-geita-duplicate-at-buckreef-project-2011-11-12
SPX - It's going to be an interesting EOY...
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3287600&cmd=show[s189415830]&disp=O
Thanks Mark.
ReplyDeleteBe interesting to see if we get a big up day tomorrow on the Italy news or if it is all proced in.
CP, thx for the SVM and Ted Butler links.
ReplyDeleteON Friday, sold 200 TBT at 20.42 that I had bot earlier in the week at 19.67. I had a limit sell order in place for 20.55 but it didn't look like we were going to make that so I dropped the limit order to 20.42 during the last 20 min of trading. Thx David. I just didn't want to go into the weekend with any more shares than what I already have.
Yep, it'll be interesting to see how it goes this week...
ReplyDelete(EU) Eurozone bailout fund
Submitted by Vadym Graifer (2664 comments) on Sun, 11/13/2011 - 11:36 #99825
(EU) Eurozone bailout fund (EFSF) forced to buy its own debt as outside investors shy away - London Telegraph
- Telegraph reports that the EFSF was only able to successfully sell a €3B 10-year offering in support of Ireland last week by buying some of the debt itself. The EFSF bought over €100M of its own debt in the offering to help close a shortfall after outside investors bought only €2.7B, and other European Union funds are said to have also been used to support the bond sale.
- The Telegraph says this amounts to a "major failure" of the EFSF, after its officials toured Asia seeking investors last week, and will put added pressure on the ECB to become the lender of last resort for the Eurozone, a position the ECB has strongly resisted.
**REMINDER: on 11/10 the EFSF's Regling said the fund's leverage may be lower than previously expected, to be 3-4x rather than 4-5x; still possible that fund could reach €1T in leveraging. Noted that investors would like to see more detail on plans for leveraging the fund, does not expect the fund to raise hundreds of billions in funds by the end of 2011.
Mad did a webinar posting Wed evening and I listened to it yesterday.
ReplyDeleteHe's bullish on S&P through the end of the year. His initial target was 1275 which has already been hit and his secondary target is 1350. Sounds like he thinks we roll over first quarter next year, mostly due to a recession that starts in Europe and spreads to the US. So he has TBT in the trader alert portfolio and he thinks its safe to buy in the 19.50's but he's also thinking it will trade as high as $24.00 on the year end rally and he plans to exit for a loss there. I bet he's been reading David's post here. No comment on what he thinks if we hit 1350 sooner rather than later.
I also bot 7 DEC 124 SPY puts at 3.56 on Friday, currently underwater. Mostly because I thought we might get more fireworks out of Europe this weekend but if I were to guess now, before the futures open, I would say we're going to gap up. I really would have preferred putting on another strangle but those take more time to do and I just didn't have that luxury at the end of the day. I'll be out of these DEC SPY puts by Wed.
ReplyDeleteAnd the Jan 121/124 SPY strangle is positive about $50.00 so I'm hoping some bigger moves in one direction for awhile. Down would be ok but since I'm net long, running on up to 1350 would be fine too.
ReplyDeleteCSCO - I have 1000 shares at around $20.00 after selling some covered calls. I kept these shares because I was in INTC around $22.00 before it dropped. I got impatient and sold $19.00 strike covered calls and they were called away. It sure has taken CSCO a lot longer to recover though. I've had some of these shares since last Nov. I suppose if I would have used CC's method (or what I think ur method is) and set stops I would have only been down at most 2% of the portfolio.
I think that's a pretty good method but it takes a lot of discipline to enforce. I think my problem is once I get stopped out of a stock, like CSCO or INTC for example, the stock is DEAD TO ME and I don't watch it for another or proper setup. The wash sale rules for non retirement accounts don't help either.
Good morning. Is this bar open?
ReplyDeleteOpen bar - Of course, we're just waiting for the showgirls to show up...
ReplyDeleteGood. That might kill about 20 min. this morning.
ReplyDeleteHere, this will kill 2 minutes. Video of Kendra's quarter final game last weekend. She's #23 and scores the first 2 goals. The first one is lame, but at least she used her left foot!
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=khcFqVaN_RU
BTU - Wouldn't it be great to see a double-bottom getting bought?
ReplyDeleteIs it lunch time yet?
ReplyDeleteS2 didn't hold worth a shit for SPY.
ReplyDeleteBrandt's long SLV...
ReplyDeleteC is at the 50 which has held for about a month.
ReplyDeleteGood morning, over the weekend I was worried that TBT might get away from its current "value" region, and instead of waiting to buy the customary 200 shares at $19.50, I placed buy limit orders for 100 shares at $20.00 and $19.50, so that if both of them get executed, I will have TBT at the average cost of $19.75. So far, only the buy limit at $20 got executed.
ReplyDeleteATPG, a Les fav....Don't even think about it. MOG hates the biz model.
ReplyDeleteport2013 -- good call selling your TBT on Friday at $20.42. Now you can reload it at $19.7X! I think scaling into TBT below $20 is very safe, as there will be MANY rallies to $21 to sell into.
ReplyDeleteATPG - Just can't get myself excited over what appears at first glance to be a money hole...
ReplyDeleteCall it a 1st impression.
Notables...HEK/DANG
ReplyDeletehttp://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1167483/000091957411006190/d1242691_13f-hr.txt
WFR- Who likes this one again? Bottom of channel.
ReplyDeleteI think I'll just call my congressman to see if he's got any good stock tips...
ReplyDeleteafternoon gents, took half a day off to run errands and of course i can't do that until after i give the market a looking over
ReplyDeletesold my 7 dec 124 spy puts that i bot at 3.56 for 4.10, that was a lucky trade. I'm just going to hang on to my jan spy strangle for now.
bot 650 TBT at 19.93 and put them out at 21.40 on a good till cancel order. That's becaue I may not be paying attn on market rally day. Sometimes I'll convert these over to a trailing stop order if I'm around when it starts to move.
ALso put out an order to buy 400 shares of EPM at 6.80. If I get these I'll put out an gtc order to sell at $7.20.
I'm going to go test drive a Ford Explorer.
later
one additional note on FEEELINGS
ReplyDeleteFor now, unless I get different vibes from Minyanville, Mad, John Markam, or CNBC tone, I'm done buying the SPY puts other than strangles. I may play SDS and SSO intraday and possible carry overnight but those will be smaller positions and at least I can sell those in extended hours trading. FYI, I was busy at the office this morn so I have not even cked out Minyanville's tone for the day.
Just placed a buy limit order for 500 shares of AUMN at $7.55.
ReplyDeleteLooks like the retest of OPEN at around $38.3 close was tested and failed last week in what may have been a false breakdown. I think this is an excellent spot to go long and use as a stop out below $38 on a close.
ReplyDeleteOn a second thought, in order to use my buying power more sparingly, I cancelled the buy limit order for 500 shares of AUMN and instead placed a buy limit order for 10 December $5 AUMN calls at $2.70.
ReplyDeleteAll right, my buy limit order for 10 December $5 AUMN calls was just executed at $2.70.
ReplyDeleteNow, I can reset my AUMN "money pump" to lower levels, placing sell limit orders at $8 and $8.50 for 500 shares (thus, scaling out of some part of the shares I have accumulated at around $7.60 over the past couple of months). If AUMN surges past $8.50, then I'll be happy for my AUMN call options lifting up my portfolio.
MITK...-.01 Rev $3M.
ReplyDeleteI nailed the total customers. Doubled to 161. Added Progressive insurance. OK, let's see what the call has to say.
ReplyDeleteMargins increased to 89% from 81%.
Wowza!!!
ReplyDeletehttp://www.streetinsider.com/13Fs/Teppers+Appaloosa+Sells+Stocks+In+a+Big+Way%3B+Completly+Out+of+BofA+%28BAC%29+and+Wells+Fargo+%28WFC%29,+Sells+Citi+%28C%29/6946033.html
MITK - Hmmmm, initial response not overwhelmingly positive...
ReplyDeleteMark - I think the odds of MITK retesting the $6.7ish area are decent. I would seriously consider loading the boat there.
ReplyDeleteHowever, the win of progressive on the insurance side of things is a potential big win for them, giving them an opening for more insurance companies.
ReplyDeleteMITK mixed shelf of 100M. Initial 800K shares @ 8.41...If I'm reading that correctly. I was surprised they 'ran out of time' and only took 2 questions.
ReplyDeleteMITK- Man, I got exactly what I was hoping for, except the offer. Damn, 100M is huge for a co. that size, no?
ReplyDeleteCP- Only a few thousand shares have traded hands AH, but that offer is scary.
ReplyDeleteFrom a CAPS fool...
ReplyDelete'The only way this company is making money is by fooling investors to buy its stock. I just don't understand how people fall for these bad investments. The company's stock based compensation alone is almost higher than its revenue. This is a huge red flag! Also, the recent run up in the stock price is very dangerous. This is because once the stock options start getting exercised it will cause massive dilution. Once this stock crashes, which it surely will, it will crash hard. That I can guarantee!Anybody who buys a stock like this needs to do one thing and one thing only, take some basic accounting and finance classes. That's the best advice you will ever get.'
I honestly haven't looked at this, but I will.
John Mauldin wrote an interesting article on Friday about European troubles:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/thoughts_from_the_frontline/archive/2011/11/12/where-is-the-ecb-printing-press.aspx
Here is an excerpt from it:
*****
"So How Do We Solve the Eurozone Problem?
Let’s quickly look at options for solving this.
1. The Germans (and the Dutch and Finns, et al.) can simply take their export surplus and taxes and savings and pay for the deficits in the southern zone until such time as they can be brought under control. Or they can bail out all the banks. Not just their own but throughout Europe, as a customer without a banking system cannot buy your products. That seems to be a political non-starter.
2. The problem countries can make the extremely painful adjustments, cut their deficits, and enter into a lengthy pepression. That also seems to be a political non-starter.
3. The Eurozone can forgive enough debt to get the various countries back to a place where they can function, nationalizing the banks that hold the debt, which would lead to a Europe-wide deep recession. Possible if the Eurozone leaders can sell it, but it is a tough sell.
4. A few countries (2? 3? 4?) can leave the Eurozone. If this is not done in an orderly fashion, the chaos will reverberate around the world.
All of the above paths (or some combination of them) mean a banking crisis and chaos and long-term recessions. These are not pretty paths. But the above options assume that the ECB remains true to its Bundesbank core. Which brings us to the next “solution.”
Where Is the ECB Printing Press?"
The path of least resistance, and I use that term guardedly, is for the ECB to find its printing press. Perhaps they can borrow one from Bernanke. Yes, I know they are buying sovereign debt now, but they are “sterilizing” it, meaning they sell euro paper to offset the monetary base effects (large oversimplification, I know).
But the money to solve the crisis does not exist. The only way to find it is for the ECB to print money and print in size, enough to lower the value of the euro and make exports cheaper (which gives southern Europe a chance to grow out of its problems). Which is of course something the Germans vehemently oppose, as it goes against their core DNA coding.
But the choice is print or let the euro perish. I see no other realistic solution, aside from massive austerity, willingly accepted by Europeans everywhere, along with the nationalization of their banks, etc., as described above. I think there is even less willingness to endure all that.
****
Now imagine, once ECB announces that they finally start printing (and it looks like this is just a matter of time), the markets will take off like crazy, led by precious metals.
MITK- OK, I actually read it a little.
ReplyDelete$100M to be issued as stock, preferred, warants, debit, etc.
There is an additional 800K current shares for sale. These proceeds do NOT got to MITK, but the seller. Must be an insider. Price is an average for registration purposes.
..........
So, they are willing to increase their outstanding shares by 33% at current prices if it's all common, and you know it will be with some warrants thrown in.
And my take by the way the call ended? This is what was said after 2 questions...'Ok, thanks, we are out of time for questions. Thanks for coming.'
This is what I heard...'Hey Dad, sorry, got to run. Oh, by the way, I crashed your car on the way to the Dr's to confirm the pregnancy test. Ciao!!'
MITK - Article on how banks are covering their backsides by raising fees wherever they can (NYT). USB add's 50 cents for every check deposited by mobile. Ouch! If you have a lot of checks just drive down to the nearest branch. (I have been out of MITK since July 29 at $9.21, have been reducing risk and not trading much).
ReplyDeleteMark - Enjoyed the short video.
Illini- Do you have a link about the mobile check fee?
ReplyDeleteI just checked USB's web site. It say's there are no fees.
ReplyDelete"Deposit money with a mobile phone? At U.S. Bancorp, it is now 50 cents a check."
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/14/business/banks-quietly-ramp-up-consumer-fees.html?_r=1&scp=3&sq=bank%20fees&st=cse
Illini- Scratch that. I found the fee. Cock suckers.
ReplyDeleteWho knows? All I know is that Big Banks are wounded, dangerous and hungry. Make that last ... greedy.
ReplyDeleteOr as my Dad used to say: M-F..ing C-S..ers. Only when his temper really flared and not in the presence of females. I take after my Mom but have heard it all. LOL.
ReplyDeleteGPL - Nice initial earnings response.
ReplyDeleteMark, looks like the other team was out gunned. cool.
ReplyDeleteThe Silver Institute (consortium of silver producers) releases an update on the silver investment market:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.silverinstitute.org/images/stories/silver/PDF/SilverInvestUpdateNov11.pdf
new post
ReplyDelete