Last Saturday we attended a birthday party at a local go cart racing warehouse. Just before leaving, a guy in his late thirties plopped down in one of the seats in the viewing area and started a conversation about the job market. He was stoked, having landed work recently renovating a rusting barge for excavation work. Three weeks of work at 30/hr under the table, with the outlook good for another two weeks.
“NOIZ - I like companies like that and they're profitable(a rarity these days), to boot!
Hard for me to get excited over a chart that's already run to the moon knowing the second I buy it tanks...”
CP – What I’ve found with companies like this is the most important thing is not that it has run up big but rather: A.) What is its valuation? B.) What potential does it have to grow?
The reason I say this is because I have seen companies like HNSN, DXPE, BOOM, TZOO look like they are on a parabolic rise, then then absolutely moonshot higher…the reason: the company was dirt cheap even after a huge run up.
uh oh....p&f charts say that we're going to 1,150 now. great now i need to get out of my 3 times leverage because the p&f charts told me last week we were going to 1,540.
This entire week (make it the past two weeks) has been 'a long, strange trip.'
(a) MIL hospitalized for a suspected stroke. CAT scan finds nothing. Second night in hospital has a stroke, but it's in the middle of the night and no one notices. Follow up MRI finds evidence of the stroke. Fortunately, the deficits (at this point) are relatively mild, and she is expected to recover with minor disabilities.
(b) An old colleague contacts me out of the blue, and wants to leave a 'glamorous' position and return to Earth.
(c) The identical twin of another colleague happened to sit next to me last night at an industry dinner. She informed me her sister (the one I knew) passed away in 2007 (cancer).
(d) Son's coach is now a councilman-elect.
(e) I tried to arrange a dinner this evening with the guys at work. Most of them weren't able to make it. The one person we were trying to 'honor' canceled yesterday, as his Mom is hospitalized and not expected to last much longer. Instead, I ran into all kinds of old friends, including the above, and it will now be a full table of cool people who are strangers to each other.
Catch you guys after dinner + weekly dose of the house cabernet.
tof- I don't get it. If 74% of the companies that have issued Q4 guidance have guided down, how is that positive for the ST? I think we'll have to wait for Q4 earnings annoucements in January for positive surprises to outweigh the negative guidance.
I'm with TOF and bullish here. Whenever you have an economy coming out of recession, the early gains are fast and then slow down.
Could be the analysts just had the numbers too high, or they are setting up for a Q4 beat.
Either way, they are not saying earnings are slowing, just that the % of those providing guidance that is lower than the analysts is increasing.
Analysts are herders and tend to take what happened last year, and then project it for the next year (and usually years after that). Reality is the rate of increase slows as you get further away from the recession, but as long as they are still going up, they are a support for the market.
tof - Lakshman Achuthan /ECRI has a rep of being quite early on his calls so it could be several months away. Could be happy trading during the interim but I'm not chancing it. Also, Kyle Bass makes a case for Euro Zone sovereign defaults, etc. It matters. His latest video on BBC:
A shorter version is here: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/kyle-bass-best-summarizes-profligate-idiots-europe-they-have-german-pope-and-italian-central-ba ... I am presently watching the long version.
ii dont understand why my comments keep getting deleted (except when i use my celllphone whiich has a sticky keyboard)...anyway, 2nd i believe q1 and q2 hhad like 2/3 of companies guiding below estimates as well yet profits turned out to be great. ceos r no different than u and i in thhat their moods r impacted by what they read and hear. they r probably pessimistic for that reason alone yet their businesses continue to suprise them as they post quarter after quarter of improving profits.
that article u posted starts right off the bat with the assumption that all economies r screwed. i dont understand why everyone assumes that you cant go from fast growth (which is always the case coming out of a recession) to slower growth instead of straight to a recession
either way i believe our economy is actually gaining momentum...the majority of econ reports have been better than expected and profits r strong.
this achutan guy really is one of the most arrogant guys ive ever seen. he has brainwashed people into thinking he is soome sort of god because he supposedly has a propietary system that forecasts every recession. he got two calls in a row right correct? bfd. those links i showed were from wells fargo and another economist that have a long and accurate tradition...and they're not pointing to anything close to a recession. but again this is all semantics bc in the loong run its profits that maatter and even if we get a recession profits will once again come back..so I'd rather focus on companies with great future prospects, a history of rising revs and eps and cash flow and a solid balance sheet...those win out over time
Test to see how this formats... Recent list from 11/16:
Technically Attractive BofAML Buy-Rated Stocks to Buy-Write Ticker Company Name BofAML Rating Dividend Yield Sub Industry AMZN Amazon.com Inc. C-1-9 Internet Retail APC Anadarko Petroleum Corp. C-1-7 0.45% Oil & Gas Exploration & Production CSCO Cisco Systems Inc. B-1-7 1.27% Communications Equipment COH Coach Inc. C-1-7 1.39% Apparel Accessories & Luxury Goods INTC Intel Corp. B-1-7 3.41% Semiconductors LVS Las Vegas Sands Corp. C-1-9 Casinos & Gaming M Macy's Inc. C-1-7 1.31% Department Stores MSFT Microsoft Corp. B-1-7 2.39% Systems Software NKE Nike Inc. Cl B B-1-7 1.30% Footwear TSLA Tesla Motors Inc. C-1-9 Automobile Manufacturers Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
"BRITAIN will soon be forced to scrap the pound and join the euro, one of Germany’s most senior figures said yesterday.
In a chilling threat to UK sovereignty, German finance minister Wolfgang Schauble predicted that all Europe would one day use the single currency. “It will happen perhaps faster than some in the British Isles currently believe,” he said"
I agree in no compromise. I think both sides felt like the lost face the last time. But, I was doing some reading while waiting. Before I though we would see a big ol market drop but now that I've read some more, the immediate impact should really be a non event because nothin will happen immediately. It sounds like the first cuts n spending wouldn't take place until 2013. In the markets that's a lifetime away. I hope I read that right.
CP, Gold:Copper ratio back to where we were in fall of 08, early 09.
Could indicate a recession in normal times, but I tend to read it as either "too many people still love gold and it hasn't dropped like other commodities yet" or "fear is still very high in the market and setting us for a strong stock market if this subsides" (like it did in in 08/09).
Futures down tonight, I assume, due the failure of the Supercommittee. I see this as a good sign as markets still focused on macro and missing the good company news.
As an aside, I read the dem's won't cut more unles the rep's agree to raise taxes. Rep's won't raise taxes unless dem's agree to cut entitlements like Medicare.
Absolutely everyone knows the current Medicare program won't work long term and needs cuts, so I see the public being more likely to hold this against the dem's.
Never seen so much disfunctional politics as in the U.S. right now.
Superdebtcommittee - Of course we might not expect any impact one way or the other, but that doesn't mean someone(s) won't try their best to make the most of a "crisis".
BB - $gold:$copper - I found this article, not sure what to make of it though (is this a fakeout planted story, a temporary phenomenon, or something else:
BB - There might be other reasons - Perhaps someone's buying up the zinc/lead just to keep the PM's supply spigot flowing? Or maybe the base metals are just too cheap to pass up, may as well rent warehouse space while it's cheap?
After all, PM's are mostly byproducts of base metals.
Buffet says no plans for direct investments in Europe, but sees bright future for U.S.
From CNBC:
European stocks on the other hand were attractive, he said.
“When I left Omaha I left an order to buy one European stock which we will undoubtedly be buying today and we’ll probably be buying it tomorrow and the next day and next week and next month,” Buffett said.
Interesting how investor sentiment is still so negative, yet, you look at the smart money like Buffett is still buying and, again, lots of takeovers again this Monday.
Now, from Sentimentrader:
Despite a massive October rally in stocks, speculative penny stock traders actually reduced their trading activity last month, from what had already been very low levels.
When penny stock volume is very high, it tends to precede market peaks; when volume is very low, it tends to precede troughs.
The only other times in recent history that volume has been this depressed were near the prior two bear market lows in the falls of 2002 and 2008.
Yep, probably not much of a surprise but closing on XHP was one of the upside catalysts listed by Soloman Partners.
"Closing of XHP acquisition. Henan Found is in the process of closing the acquisition of the XHP Ag-Au-Pb-Zn mine, including a 14 squarekilometer mining permit and a new 500 tpd flotation/CIL mill. The asset is in close proximity to the recently acquired XBG mining permit (acquired 90% interest through Henan Found for total consideration of US$10.4 million) as well as the Ying Mining Camp."
>> 'Bizarre' is a good word for it, CP. I could handle any one of the events by itself, but coming together it kind of throws me off.
I haven't posted since Friday because of more "bizarre" events.
(a) My wife was walking on the territory of our townhouse complex two weeks ago and saw a cat lying on her side, under a bush. My wife looked closely and saw that the cat was dead.
(b) A few days after that, my wife was driving our children to a park, and while waiting at a red light, our car was reamed from behind by a van (the driver behind looked at some papers and didn't notice that the cars in front of him were stopped). Thankfully, no one was hurt, but the rear of our car is pretty bent.
(c) A few days after that, my wife is invited to a birthday celebration by her girlfriend, and when they arrive, they see the girlfriend's cat lying dead on the little street inside of their townhouse complex, apparently being hit by the car. My wife's friend is devastated, she asks a little later where to bury the cat, and I suggest an open space preserve along the Santa Cruz mountains.
(d) Around that time my cat, my best friend for 13 years, stops eating and starts vomiting. I thought it was just some stomach indigestion and didn't take him to a vet. Last Friday (3 days after I noticed that he stopped eating), I return from work and my wife is all in tears. My cat died. On Saturday, we take him to bury at a remote spot of an open space preserve in the Santa Cruz mountains, where we occasionally take family walks, and see a fresh grave of another cat on our path.
(e) A friend of mine, who likes Mustangs, was getting into his Mustang that day when an old lady drove right into his car, missing him (as he was still standing outside of the car) by just a few inches. That's the second Mustang for him that is destroyed by an elderly person.
Now if we throw in the bizarre behavior of the stock market we are observing (which reflects the total shock of millions of people around the world), I would say we have a clear example of how bizarre events screw the world around them and create a chain reaction, like a hydrogen bomb.
David - You & I probably agree on very little re the markets, but do pay very close attention to these 'domino'/'cascade' event chains. There's something there; I've experienced it. Be extra careful. Like market moves, it usually continues longer than you expect.
Another one of my smallcaps getting taken out after market close today. I think that is number 8 for me and 10% of my stocks for the year.
I bought the stock back in 2007 for $2.22 at around book value. At the time, it was the first time it had trade down around book in a few years. It made around $0.18 per year every year since then, but the stock never moved up and got dragged down in the financial mess. Traded between $1.80 and $2.20 all year and is not getting taken out at around book value of $2.90.
To me, this is just another example of why the market is too cheap and has to go up from here. Might not this quarter because of Europe, but if you take a longer term view and pick undervalued stocks, I think you will certainly do well.
David - Wow, Hussman sure is long-winded! Read the entire article and got confused on whether he prefers hedged, or unhedged producers.
Wow though, amazing how these guys seem to keep riding their metals positions down, BC still hasn't mentioned selling after pumping in October and signing about his gold portfolio and how well it was doing on what turned out to be a dead-cat bounce. I bet he sings his head off again about how his gold portfolio is a smashing success if gold manages to eek out just a small gain one day this week. Why can't these guys be honest for once, LOL!
Sheesh, I really don't feel like riding this crap all the way back to $8 silver, I could do as well with ol' broke donkey BAC. This beating is getting too fierce.
bot 300 sso at 41.46 sold short 5 dec 7 strike SVM puts for .45
sold my 7 Jan 121 strike puts for 7.22, that leaves me with the 7 jan 124 calls, i need to sell these for about 3.80 to break even, they are now worth 3.18 so this spread isn't working out too good. I bought these with a bullish bias and thats killing the deal at the moment.
Pretty much sucking air on all my long call positions right now which does have me a bit concerned.
im pretty bulled up so I'd like to put in an order for a 500 point rally. Feel free to start it tonight. I was going to buy MSFT but then I got to thinking about S&P support of 1100 and I'm thinking I'll just stay put with what I have for now.
GLD is still in an uptrend. I need to add another precious metal to the portfolio. All I have at the moment are 1000 shares of SVM and short 5 DEC 7 strike SVM puts. I think I prefer silver to gold because silver has the add benefit of industrial use.
Silver is also more volatile. For my part I am going with PHYS. Closer to physical gold. Had GLD before but have become a little more skeptical. Small position so far but at a rare profit.
That's a great trade, port2013. I can't understand why EVERYONE who has some cash left over doesn't sell short puts left and right, now that the premiums are so high and the prices are at bargain levels already...
I think now is a great time to be buying stocks and you will do well. Might not be quite bull time yet, but it is close:
1. Stocks are generally cheaper (P/E, P/B/ P/S) based on traditional valuation metrics than pretty much any time in at least the last 10 years
2. Smart, long term investors like Buffett are buying, plus takeovers are rampant indicating cheap valuations
3. Long term sentiment is horrible and I continually read things like “this has only happened 5 times in the last 30 years and each time is was close to a major bottom”
4. The problems are well known and will be resolved. Politics is stupid now, but people won’t bring down the whole system over politics.
So I just keep looking for good values and buying them and plan on holding for a few years until this gets recognized. One of the big advantages individual investors have is the ability to take a longer term view and not worry about short term performance (unless you need the cash).
David, that is a good idea about selling some OTM puts. I am going to look into that today.
CP, I've been looking at the tankers for a couple of weeks now and wonder if it is time to step in.
They are all getting hammered, GMR declared bankruptcy last week, FRO with financial covenant issues, bad news out of Danish shipper Torn. Bad news all around.
But, things may be starting to turn according to Bloomberg:
Daily returns for VLCCs on the industry’s benchmark Saudi Arabia-to-Japan route advanced for a 10th consecutive session yesterday to $23,246, according to the London-based Baltic Exchange.
Thinking of buying OSG. They have a reasonable dividend still and their CEO was quite confident about their financial condition on their last concall.
I'm still watching, but these are the tops of stocks you want to buy when the news is horrible as it is now. I may go with David's idea of taking advantage of high option rates and sell puts instead
KOG - $8.13, + .12 today. Kodiak could have been bought in OCT for half that price. Not that I did. It's all about the Bakken where they are actually expanding acreage.
"1200 - If from here we can retake 1200 and hold it, we might just have a chance to break up and out of this congestion?"
S&P futures basically retested yeterday's lows this morning. So if these lows hold and the futures rise to 1200 (which is above the highest point between yesterday's lows and today's lows), then we could have some hope that the decline is over.
AUMN: it is tough for one company to fight the trend of the sector. GDXJ has almost returned to its October 4 low yesterday, and AUMN is getting there today. While the two charts are not perfectly correlated on the daily basis, over a month's time they follow each other pretty well. In order for AUMN to start moving up, GDXJ has to put in a bottom. I thought the bottom was in when GDXJ made a couple of higher lows after October 4, but now that pattern is broken. We now have a double bottom pattern forming, so let's see if October 4 lows hold for GDXJ.
AUMN - Maybe the arb traders are controlling these? Of course I don't comprehend the reasoning.
One trader posted he was short PSLV and long SLV, in attempt to collect on the premium over NAV that PSLV's been trading. Doesn't look like that's working at the moment.
The AUMN chart has a good correlation with the GDXJ chart. The GDXJ chart has an excellent correlation with the SLV chart. Both GDXJ and SLV are up today. In fact, the closing prices of SLV this week were all above the October 20 low. So the SLV chart is still making higher lows since October 4. In the light of this, I just bought 10 more AUMN December $5 calls, this time for $1.70. I almost ran out of my buying power with this purchase, and a down day tomorrow will mean that I'll get a margin call. But risk is the name of the game, right? :)
Now that I have 20 AUMN December $5 calls, I'll place sell limit orders on my December $7.50 calls, which are considerably more risky: 5 calls at $0.5 and 5 more at $1.00. (I bought these calls at the average price of $0.75, so I would be selling them flat).
hey fellas im out on lunch break. just wanted to check in and let you know we had our baby boy! 7lbs 11oz born 11/21/11 at 929am. hes so awesome...unfortunately he showed some slightly elevated levels for jaundice so they have him under phototherapy. wife is emotional (abt everything) but docs say its quite common and otherwise hes healthy and happy. ill chk in later. hope u all r doing well and trading successfully. mark i sent u an email last week did u get it?
5:29 PM CNBC reports the trustee for MF Global (MFGLQ.PK) says $1.3B has been recovered from Harris Bank and will go back into customer's segregated accounts.
Today I bot 5 dec 150 CF calls for 8.70. I'm pretty much at my max level of tolerance for what I call high risk longs which are my long DEC cf calls.
If we drop further, and it would have to be a big drop, I'll start selling some puts on things I'm interested in buying like MSFT for example. I didn't pick up any MSFT the other day because of my current high risk long situation.
The only good thing I have to say about the market today is that we didn't crash. I don't like the looks of it. I did find a possible inverse head and shoulders on the 30 min SPY chart. It's not completed and we would need to open flat tomorrow and trade up through $120.30 and that would set up a short term target of $121.50. Yeah, I'm playing with the chart until I can get something positive out of it. And the RSI on the daily chart is near the bottom of the range. that's about it.
Unless we get a catalyst, it looks like down to me. But with me being the optimist, why couldn't something good get announced tonight that sends on a silly rally? Here's to hoping.
TOF - Was wondering why you were in a silent period. Recalled that wife was due soon. Congratulations! A child will change your life, for the better. (You also passed on your y-chromosome. That's the one in the male line. Not that it matters much but it is traceable though time).
Last Saturday we attended a birthday party at a local go cart racing warehouse. Just before leaving, a guy in his late thirties plopped down in one of the seats in the viewing area and started a conversation about the job market. He was stoked, having landed work recently renovating a rusting barge for excavation work. Three weeks of work at 30/hr under the table, with the outlook good for another two weeks.
ReplyDeleteYep, the market seems to have had enough of Europe.
ReplyDelete“NOIZ - I like companies like that and they're profitable(a rarity these days), to boot!
ReplyDeleteHard for me to get excited over a chart that's already run to the moon knowing the second I buy it tanks...”
CP – What I’ve found with companies like this is the most important thing is not that it has run up big but rather:
A.) What is its valuation?
B.) What potential does it have to grow?
The reason I say this is because I have seen companies like HNSN, DXPE, BOOM, TZOO look like they are on a parabolic rise, then then absolutely moonshot higher…the reason: the company was dirt cheap even after a huge run up.
This is probably stating the obvious, but all of the E&P guys I follow are rolling over. Island top for COG.
ReplyDeleteuh oh....p&f charts say that we're going to 1,150 now. great now i need to get out of my 3 times leverage because the p&f charts told me last week we were going to 1,540.
ReplyDeleteTOF- Or your numerically dyslectic.
ReplyDeletehttp://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2011/11/18/bad-tidings-sp-500-companies-issue-negative-guidance/?mod=google_news_blog
ReplyDeleteThis entire week (make it the past two weeks) has been 'a long, strange trip.'
ReplyDelete(a) MIL hospitalized for a suspected stroke. CAT scan finds nothing. Second night in hospital has a stroke, but it's in the middle of the night and no one notices. Follow up MRI finds evidence of the stroke. Fortunately, the deficits (at this point) are relatively mild, and she is expected to recover with minor disabilities.
(b) An old colleague contacts me out of the blue, and wants to leave a 'glamorous' position and return to Earth.
(c) The identical twin of another colleague happened to sit next to me last night at an industry dinner. She informed me her sister (the one I knew) passed away in 2007 (cancer).
(d) Son's coach is now a councilman-elect.
(e) I tried to arrange a dinner this evening with the guys at work. Most of them weren't able to make it. The one person we were trying to 'honor' canceled yesterday, as his Mom is hospitalized and not expected to last much longer. Instead, I ran into all kinds of old friends, including the above, and it will now be a full table of cool people who are strangers to each other.
Catch you guys after dinner + weekly dose of the house cabernet.
tof- I don't get it. If 74% of the companies that have issued Q4 guidance have guided down, how is that positive for the ST? I think we'll have to wait for Q4 earnings annoucements in January for positive surprises to outweigh the negative guidance.
ReplyDelete2nd ,
ReplyDeleteI'm with TOF and bullish here. Whenever you have an economy coming out of recession, the early gains are fast and then slow down.
Could be the analysts just had the numbers too high, or they are setting up for a Q4 beat.
Either way, they are not saying earnings are slowing, just that the % of those providing guidance that is lower than the analysts is increasing.
Analysts are herders and tend to take what happened last year, and then project it for the next year (and usually years after that). Reality is the rate of increase slows as you get further away from the recession, but as long as they are still going up, they are a support for the market.
tof - Lakshman Achuthan /ECRI has a rep of being quite early on his calls so it could be several months away. Could be happy trading during the interim but I'm not chancing it. Also, Kyle Bass makes a case for Euro Zone sovereign defaults, etc. It matters. His latest video on BBC:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/kyle-bass-un-edited-buying-gold-just-buying-put-against-idiocy-political-cycle-its-simple
A shorter version is here: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/kyle-bass-best-summarizes-profligate-idiots-europe-they-have-german-pope-and-italian-central-ba ... I am presently watching the long version.
MCP - Oh how the mighty have fallen...
ReplyDelete2nd - That is rather bizarre. I hope everyone recovers quickly...
ReplyDeleteMDW - Headed back to upper trend line ($3.20)?
ReplyDeleteSVM - RSI(2) is less than 2, should be good for a bounce.
ReplyDeleteThe house cab was actually not bad. Nine of us at the table. Broadway Prime- you've all seen this link before:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.broadwayprime.com/
Great time had by all.
'Bizarre' is a good word for it, CP. I could handle any one of the events by itself, but coming together it kind of throws me off.
ReplyDeleteHere's a good take on US v Europe v China:
ReplyDeletehttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204358004577029972941870172.html?mod=WSJ_article_onespot
Like I said, hope everyone pulls through, even both twins, if that's possible. ;)
ReplyDeletePEIX - Ran out of steam...
ReplyDeleteii dont understand why my comments keep getting deleted (except when i use my celllphone whiich has a sticky keyboard)...anyway, 2nd i believe q1 and q2 hhad like 2/3 of companies guiding below estimates as well yet profits turned out to be great. ceos r no different than u and i in thhat their moods r impacted by what they read and hear. they r probably pessimistic for that reason alone yet their businesses continue to suprise them as they post quarter after quarter of improving profits.
ReplyDeletethat article u posted starts right off the bat with the assumption that all economies r screwed. i dont understand why everyone assumes that you cant go from fast growth (which is always the case coming out of a recession) to slower growth instead of straight to a recession
either way i believe our economy is actually gaining momentum...the majority of econ reports have been better than expected and profits r strong.
ReplyDeletethis achutan guy really is one of the most arrogant guys ive ever seen. he has brainwashed people into thinking he is soome sort of god because he supposedly has a propietary system that forecasts every recession. he got two calls in a row right correct? bfd. those links i showed were from wells fargo and another economist that have a long and accurate tradition...and they're not pointing to anything close to a recession. but again this is all semantics bc in the loong run its profits that maatter and even if we get a recession profits will once again come back..so I'd rather focus on companies with great future prospects, a history of rising revs and eps and cash flow and a solid balance sheet...those win out over time
Oh no, my beach house is under contract! ;(
ReplyDeleteTest to see how this formats... Recent list from 11/16:
ReplyDeleteTechnically Attractive BofAML Buy-Rated Stocks to Buy-Write
Ticker Company Name BofAML Rating Dividend Yield Sub Industry
AMZN Amazon.com Inc. C-1-9 Internet Retail
APC Anadarko Petroleum Corp. C-1-7 0.45% Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
CSCO Cisco Systems Inc. B-1-7 1.27% Communications Equipment
COH Coach Inc. C-1-7 1.39% Apparel Accessories & Luxury Goods
INTC Intel Corp. B-1-7 3.41% Semiconductors
LVS Las Vegas Sands Corp. C-1-9 Casinos & Gaming
M Macy's Inc. C-1-7 1.31% Department Stores
MSFT Microsoft Corp. B-1-7 2.39% Systems Software
NKE Nike Inc. Cl B B-1-7 1.30% Footwear
TSLA Tesla Motors Inc. C-1-9 Automobile Manufacturers
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
I need to spend some quality time on this link to see if these guys are ahead or behind the curve:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.econbrowser.com/
Base metals warehousing business booming, materials stacked to the rafters?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nola.com/business/index.ssf/2011/11/warehouse_space_in_limited_sup.html
$gold:$copper - A level over 400 is generally considered recessionary indicator:
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GOLD:$COPPER&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p99295968853&a=217994610&r=7 736
PAAS - Seems to be quite oversold...
ReplyDeleteGERMANS TRY TO KILL OFF POUND
ReplyDelete"BRITAIN will soon be forced to scrap the pound and join the euro, one of Germany’s most senior figures said yesterday.
In a chilling threat to UK sovereignty, German finance minister Wolfgang Schauble predicted that all Europe would one day use the single currency. “It will happen perhaps faster than some in the British Isles currently believe,” he said"
http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/284656/Germans-try-to-kill-off-pound
on Friday, sold 1 of my 3 CF Dec 150 calls for 12.90 that I bought on Thur for 9.30. I probably should have sold all of them.
ReplyDeleteI guess our focus is about to shift to the super committee. Before I post what I think, who thinks there will be a compromise before the deadline?
No Compromise! It's a political thing. But I don't think there's any threat of default regardless, so not sure why market should be down/up on this...
ReplyDeleteOkay, your turn b/c I've likely underestimated the potential for impact.
I agree in no compromise. I think both sides felt like the lost face the last time. But, I was doing some reading while waiting. Before I though we would see a big ol market drop but now that I've read some more, the immediate impact should really be a non event because nothin will happen immediately. It sounds like the first cuts n spending wouldn't take place until 2013. In the markets that's a lifetime away. I hope I read that right.
ReplyDeleteBut on the other hand, I'm recording Fiddler on the Roof on DVR. No compromise will be reported on financial tv as a big market negative.
ReplyDeleteCP, Gold:Copper ratio back to where we were in fall of 08, early 09.
ReplyDeleteCould indicate a recession in normal times, but I tend to read it as either "too many people still love gold and it hasn't dropped like other commodities yet" or "fear is still very high in the market and setting us for a strong stock market if this subsides" (like it did in in 08/09).
Futures down tonight, I assume, due the failure of the Supercommittee. I see this as a good sign as markets still focused on macro and missing the good company news.
ReplyDeleteAs an aside, I read the dem's won't cut more unles the rep's agree to raise taxes. Rep's won't raise taxes unless dem's agree to cut entitlements like Medicare.
Absolutely everyone knows the current Medicare program won't work long term and needs cuts, so I see the public being more likely to hold this against the dem's.
Never seen so much disfunctional politics as in the U.S. right now.
Superdebtcommittee - Of course we might not expect any impact one way or the other, but that doesn't mean someone(s) won't try their best to make the most of a "crisis".
ReplyDeleteBB - $gold:$copper - I found this article, not sure what to make of it though (is this a fakeout planted story, a temporary phenomenon, or something else:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nola.com/business/index.ssf/2011/11/warehouse_space_in_limited_sup.html
EEM - A Big-A$$ inverse H&S (thanks to Brandt, for pointing it out).
ReplyDeleteBB - There might be other reasons - Perhaps someone's buying up the zinc/lead just to keep the PM's supply spigot flowing? Or maybe the base metals are just too cheap to pass up, may as well rent warehouse space while it's cheap?
ReplyDeleteAfter all, PM's are mostly byproducts of base metals.
I do like Bill's WIR. I may put out some bids for MSFT.
ReplyDeleteHey Guys. Long weekend/season. Both girls made it to the finals and lost. Many young tears shed. Couldn't be prouder.
ReplyDeleteThat's good stuff Mark. I was just regretting the fact that I didn't take more "crawling" video when I put the soon to be 3 year old to sleep.
ReplyDeletePort, yeah there might have even been one little old man tear in there too :)
ReplyDeleteBad reporting by somoene:
ReplyDeleteFrom Marketwatch:
Buffet says no plans for direct investments in Europe, but sees bright future for U.S.
From CNBC:
European stocks on the other hand were attractive, he said.
“When I left Omaha I left an order to buy one European stock which we will undoubtedly be buying today and we’ll probably be buying it tomorrow and the next day and next week and next month,” Buffett said.
Interesting how investor sentiment is still so negative, yet, you look at the smart money like Buffett is still buying and, again, lots of takeovers again this Monday.
ReplyDeleteNow, from Sentimentrader:
Despite a massive October rally in stocks, speculative penny stock traders actually reduced their trading activity last month, from what had already been very low levels.
When penny stock volume is very high, it tends to precede market peaks; when volume is very low, it tends to precede troughs.
The only other times in recent history that volume has been this depressed were near the prior two bear market lows in the falls of 2002 and 2008.
Heh, Maybe we get that double-bottom after all?
ReplyDeleteSVM...
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/Silvercorp-Acquires-High-iw-2666958192.html?x=0&l=1
UXG - That little H&S pattern with head at $5 in first week of Nov. looks like the target is ~ $3.50
ReplyDeleteSomebody just puked a few dollars...
ReplyDeleteSVM - "Silvercorp-Acquires"
ReplyDeleteYep, probably not much of a surprise but closing on XHP was one of the upside catalysts listed by Soloman Partners.
"Closing of XHP acquisition. Henan Found is in the process of closing
the acquisition of the XHP Ag-Au-Pb-Zn mine, including a 14 squarekilometer
mining permit and a new 500 tpd flotation/CIL mill. The asset is
in close proximity to the recently acquired XBG mining permit (acquired
90% interest through Henan Found for total consideration of US$10.4
million) as well as the Ying Mining Camp."
SVM - Note this one gaped down today, a gap that must fill at some point...
ReplyDeleteFriday's low was $7.82
CSTR - Coming back to me at $40?
ReplyDeleteMarket's mean and ugly!
ReplyDelete>> 'Bizarre' is a good word for it, CP. I could handle any one of the events by itself, but coming together it kind of throws me off.
ReplyDeleteI haven't posted since Friday because of more "bizarre" events.
(a) My wife was walking on the territory of our townhouse complex two weeks ago and saw a cat lying on her side, under a bush. My wife looked closely and saw that the cat was dead.
(b) A few days after that, my wife was driving our children to a park, and while waiting at a red light, our car was reamed from behind by a van (the driver behind looked at some papers and didn't notice that the cars in front of him were stopped). Thankfully, no one was hurt, but the rear of our car is pretty bent.
(c) A few days after that, my wife is invited to a birthday celebration by her girlfriend, and when they arrive, they see the girlfriend's cat lying dead on the little street inside of their townhouse complex, apparently being hit by the car. My wife's friend is devastated, she asks a little later where to bury the cat, and I suggest an open space preserve along the Santa Cruz mountains.
(d) Around that time my cat, my best friend for 13 years, stops eating and starts vomiting. I thought it was just some stomach indigestion and didn't take him to a vet. Last Friday (3 days after I noticed that he stopped eating), I return from work and my wife is all in tears. My cat died. On Saturday, we take him to bury at a remote spot of an open space preserve in the Santa Cruz mountains, where we occasionally take family walks, and see a fresh grave of another cat on our path.
(e) A friend of mine, who likes Mustangs, was getting into his Mustang that day when an old lady drove right into his car, missing him (as he was still standing outside of the car) by just a few inches. That's the second Mustang for him that is destroyed by an elderly person.
Now if we throw in the bizarre behavior of the stock market we are observing (which reflects the total shock of millions of people around the world), I would say we have a clear example of how bizarre events screw the world around them and create a chain reaction, like a hydrogen bomb.
FMCN - MW Bashes FMCN...
ReplyDeleteDavid - That is truly bizarre, I don't see much from a google search on cat deaths...
ReplyDeleteThanks for heads-up though, I'm going to be extra careful if I go out somewhere today.
Oh, and sorry to hear about your cat. 13 years is a pretty good while for a cat to live, he/she had a good life and I bet a happy one.
ReplyDeletePets get old and die, it's better for the pet than if his owner dies first, IMO. Good experience for the kids too.
David - You & I probably agree on very little re the markets, but do pay very close attention to these 'domino'/'cascade' event chains. There's something there; I've experienced it. Be extra careful. Like market moves, it usually continues longer than you expect.
ReplyDeleteDavid- Wow, that's crazy man. Sorry about your cat bro.
ReplyDeleteThank you, guys...
ReplyDeleteGMCR squeeze.
ReplyDeleteSpeaking about the markets, Hussman once again wrote a very interesting article this Sunday, titled "Why the ECB Won't (and Shouldn't) Just Print":
ReplyDeletehttp://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc111121.htm
Another one of my smallcaps getting taken out after market close today. I think that is number 8 for me and 10% of my stocks for the year.
ReplyDeleteI bought the stock back in 2007 for $2.22 at around book value. At the time, it was the first time it had trade down around book in a few years. It made around $0.18 per year every year since then, but the stock never moved up and got dragged down in the financial mess. Traded between $1.80 and $2.20 all year and is not getting taken out at around book value of $2.90.
To me, this is just another example of why the market is too cheap and has to go up from here. Might not this quarter because of Europe, but if you take a longer term view and pick undervalued stocks, I think you will certainly do well.
Silver - I just heard Chinese demand is down, which isn't surprising from an industrial perspective.
ReplyDeleteDavid - Wow, Hussman sure is long-winded! Read the entire article and got confused on whether he prefers hedged, or unhedged producers.
ReplyDeleteWow though, amazing how these guys seem to keep riding their metals positions down, BC still hasn't mentioned selling after pumping in October and signing about his gold portfolio and how well it was doing on what turned out to be a dead-cat bounce. I bet he sings his head off again about how his gold portfolio is a smashing success if gold manages to eek out just a small gain one day this week. Why can't these guys be honest for once, LOL!
Sheesh, I really don't feel like riding this crap all the way back to $8 silver, I could do as well with ol' broke donkey BAC. This beating is getting too fierce.
David, sorry to hear about your cat. That's tough.
ReplyDeletetoday,
ReplyDeletebot 300 sso at 41.46
sold short 5 dec 7 strike SVM puts for .45
sold my 7 Jan 121 strike puts for 7.22, that leaves me with the 7 jan 124 calls, i need to sell these for about 3.80 to break even, they are now worth 3.18 so this spread isn't working out too good. I bought these with a bullish bias and thats killing the deal at the moment.
Pretty much sucking air on all my long call positions right now which does have me a bit concerned.
im pretty bulled up so I'd like to put in an order for a 500 point rally. Feel free to start it tonight. I was going to buy MSFT but then I got to thinking about S&P support of 1100 and I'm thinking I'll just stay put with what I have for now.
ReplyDeleteCP, ur sounding BEARISH to me.
ReplyDelete"sounding BEARISH"
ReplyDeleteYou could say that! ;(
GLD is still in an uptrend. I need to add another precious metal to the portfolio. All I have at the moment are 1000 shares of SVM and short 5 DEC 7 strike SVM puts. I think I prefer silver to gold because silver has the add benefit of industrial use.
ReplyDeleteSilver is also more volatile. For my part I am going with PHYS. Closer to physical gold. Had GLD before but have become a little more skeptical. Small position so far but at a rare profit.
ReplyDelete"sold short 5 dec 7 strike SVM puts for .45"
ReplyDeleteThat's a great trade, port2013. I can't understand why EVERYONE who has some cash left over doesn't sell short puts left and right, now that the premiums are so high and the prices are at bargain levels already...
Sprott's PSLV recently filed a prospectus for a new offering of up to $1.5-billion of new Physical Silver.
ReplyDeleteThis is more silver than is reported in COMEX.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/streetwise/sprotts-physical-silver-premium-starts-to-fall/article2240985/
1200 - If from here we can retake 1200 and hold it, we might just have a chance to break up and out of this congestion?
ReplyDeleteI think now is a great time to be buying stocks and you will do well. Might not be quite bull time yet, but it is close:
ReplyDelete1. Stocks are generally cheaper (P/E, P/B/ P/S) based on traditional valuation metrics than pretty much any time in at least the last 10 years
2. Smart, long term investors like Buffett are buying, plus takeovers are rampant indicating cheap valuations
3. Long term sentiment is horrible and I continually read things like “this has only happened 5 times in the last 30 years and each time is was close to a major bottom”
4. The problems are well known and will be resolved. Politics is stupid now, but people won’t bring down the whole system over politics.
So I just keep looking for good values and buying them and plan on holding for a few years until this gets recognized. One of the big advantages individual investors have is the ability to take a longer term view and not worry about short term performance (unless you need the cash).
David, that is a good idea about selling some OTM puts. I am going to look into that today.
CSTR- I wonder if there is something in the NFLX news that has this one spooked.
ReplyDeleteReading some comments ALU might go BK.
ReplyDeleteHPQ - Chart reminds me of CSCO chart...
ReplyDeleteFRO. Yikes.
ReplyDeleteMSFT - This chart seems to be offering a decent entry price, at least it's lower risk than last month...
ReplyDeleteFRO - OMG, glad I wasn't in that one, couldn't get in b/c it was going down everyday...
ReplyDeleteCP, I've been looking at the tankers for a couple of weeks now and wonder if it is time to step in.
ReplyDeleteThey are all getting hammered, GMR declared bankruptcy last week, FRO with financial covenant issues, bad news out of Danish shipper Torn. Bad news all around.
But, things may be starting to turn according to Bloomberg:
Daily returns for VLCCs on the industry’s benchmark Saudi Arabia-to-Japan route advanced for a 10th consecutive session yesterday to $23,246, according to the London-based Baltic Exchange.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-22/tanker-surplus-in-persian-gulf-increases-according-to-survey.html
Thinking of buying OSG. They have a reasonable dividend still and their CEO was quite confident about their financial condition on their last concall.
I'm still watching, but these are the tops of stocks you want to buy when the news is horrible as it is now. I may go with David's idea of taking advantage of high option rates and sell puts instead
AUMN- Damn, it sure looks like it's going to test the 6.14 low.
ReplyDeleteBB- Thanks. Maybe after Thanksgiving.
ReplyDeleteCSTR - Looks like near bottom of channel, wondering if today's the day or if 40, or 38 will be hit...
ReplyDeleteS&P - Where was that October 10th gap up over the 50SMA, 1172?
ReplyDeleteSPY breaking PM lows.
ReplyDeleteKOG - $8.13, + .12 today. Kodiak could have been bought in OCT for half that price. Not that I did. It's all about the Bakken where they are actually expanding acreage.
ReplyDelete"1200 - If from here we can retake 1200 and hold it, we might just have a chance to break up and out of this congestion?"
ReplyDeleteS&P futures basically retested yeterday's lows this morning. So if these lows hold and the futures rise to 1200 (which is above the highest point between yesterday's lows and today's lows), then we could have some hope that the decline is over.
AUMN: it is tough for one company to fight the trend of the sector. GDXJ has almost returned to its October 4 low yesterday, and AUMN is getting there today. While the two charts are not perfectly correlated on the daily basis, over a month's time they follow each other pretty well. In order for AUMN to start moving up, GDXJ has to put in a bottom. I thought the bottom was in when GDXJ made a couple of higher lows after October 4, but now that pattern is broken. We now have a double bottom pattern forming, so let's see if October 4 lows hold for GDXJ.
ReplyDeleteAUMN - Maybe the arb traders are controlling these? Of course I don't comprehend the reasoning.
ReplyDeleteOne trader posted he was short PSLV and long SLV, in attempt to collect on the premium over NAV that PSLV's been trading. Doesn't look like that's working at the moment.
TEVA - Just closed/closing an open gap up?
ReplyDeleteCSTR - And I see a gap down in the chart from last month just above $50 there, you guys liked this one (CSTR) back when it was in the 50's, right?
ReplyDeleteGold is still below where it's opened on Sunday, but silver is already much higher than that. That's optimistic for PMs, so far...
ReplyDeleteALU- Looks like liquidity is an issue. Wow, what happened to that cube thing?
ReplyDeleteCP- I still like CSTR a lot. Probably means you should stand aside :)
ReplyDeleteTOF- You alive bro?
The $USD index has been flat for a week despite the sell-off in equities. How should we interpret that? Does it mean the equity sell-off is temporary?
ReplyDeleteThe AUMN chart has a good correlation with the GDXJ chart. The GDXJ chart has an excellent correlation with the SLV chart. Both GDXJ and SLV are up today. In fact, the closing prices of SLV this week were all above the October 20 low. So the SLV chart is still making higher lows since October 4. In the light of this, I just bought 10 more AUMN December $5 calls, this time for $1.70. I almost ran out of my buying power with this purchase, and a down day tomorrow will mean that I'll get a margin call. But risk is the name of the game, right? :)
ReplyDeleteNow that I have 20 AUMN December $5 calls, I'll place sell limit orders on my December $7.50 calls, which are considerably more risky: 5 calls at $0.5 and 5 more at $1.00. (I bought these calls at the average price of $0.75, so I would be selling them flat).
ReplyDeleteOpened AA for a trade at 9.2175
ReplyDeletehey fellas im out on lunch break. just wanted to check in and let you know we had our baby boy! 7lbs 11oz born 11/21/11 at 929am. hes so awesome...unfortunately he showed some slightly elevated levels for jaundice so they have him under phototherapy. wife is emotional (abt everything) but docs say its quite common and otherwise hes healthy and happy. ill chk in later. hope u all r doing well and trading successfully. mark i sent u an email last week did u get it?
ReplyDeleteDitto GE at 14.9989 and WFC at 23.9999
ReplyDeleteCongratulation, TOF! New life for you now. :)
ReplyDeleteCongrats, tof!
ReplyDeleteCan drinking frequently or drinking too much trigger serious health problems?
ReplyDeleteALU - Not only balance sheets are prone, but cubes also have the ability to assimilate the special weapons of enemy ships...
ReplyDeleteTOF - Congrats, you have our full permission to take a few days off to enjoy the arrival of your newborn. ;)
ReplyDeleteBC pulled a Freudian slip today, confirming his capacity for making up his very own subjective headlines:
ReplyDeleteRe: Clients of MF Global Canada defrauded by Americans
5:29 PM CNBC reports the trustee for MF Global (MFGLQ.PK) says $1.3B has been recovered from Harris Bank and will go back into customer's segregated accounts.
ReplyDeleteTOF CONGRATULATIONS - hey if you and the wife don't kill each other in the first 3 weeks then its alll smooth sailing from here!!!
ReplyDeleteToday I bot 5 dec 150 CF calls for 8.70. I'm pretty much at my max level of tolerance for what I call high risk longs which are my long DEC cf calls.
ReplyDeleteIf we drop further, and it would have to be a big drop, I'll start selling some puts on things I'm interested in buying like MSFT for example. I didn't pick up any MSFT the other day because of my current high risk long situation.
Mine's not in the list but I'm surprised it's not...
ReplyDeleteThe top 25 stolen passwords:
1.
password
2.
123456
3.
12345678
4.
qwerty
5.
abc123
6.
monkey
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1234567
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trustno1
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111111
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iloveyou
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sunshine
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ashley
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25.
football
new post
ReplyDeleteThe only good thing I have to say about the market today is that we didn't crash. I don't like the looks of it. I did find a possible inverse head and shoulders on the 30 min SPY chart. It's not completed and we would need to open flat tomorrow and trade up through $120.30 and that would set up a short term target of $121.50. Yeah, I'm playing with the chart until I can get something positive out of it. And the RSI on the daily chart is near the bottom of the range. that's about it.
ReplyDeleteUnless we get a catalyst, it looks like down to me. But with me being the optimist, why couldn't something good get announced tonight that sends on a silly rally? Here's to hoping.
Congrats TOF - way more important than the market!
ReplyDeleteTOF - Was wondering why you were in a silent period. Recalled that wife was due soon. Congratulations! A child will change your life, for the better. (You also passed on your y-chromosome. That's the one in the male line. Not that it matters much but it is traceable though time).
ReplyDelete