Tuesday, November 22, 2011
11/22/11 Don't even try to understand
Just find a place to make your stand.
I'm sittin' in an office
in SF California
It's such a fine sight to see
It's Alcoa, my Lord, in a flatbed
Ford tickin' down to: 'Take a look at me.'
Come on, baby, don't say maybe
I gotta know if your sweet love is
gonna save me
We may lose and we may win though
we will never be here again
so open up, I'm climbin' in
Transitioning back to bullish.
In addition to opening positions in AA, GE, and WFC near the close, I added positions in POT and TM after hours.
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1st up on a new post, WOOHOOO
ReplyDeleteThe only good thing I have to say about the market today is that we didn't crash. I don't like the looks of it. I did find a possible inverse head and shoulders on the 30 min SPY chart. It's not completed and we would need to open flat tomorrow and trade up through $120.30 and that would set up a short term target of $121.50. Yeah, I'm playing with the chart until I can get something positive out of it. And the RSI on the daily chart is near the bottom of the range. that's about it.
Unless we get a catalyst, it looks like down to me. But with me being the optimist, why couldn't something good get announced tonight that sends on a silly rally? Here's to hoping.
Congratulations TOF - way more important than the market!
ReplyDeleteTOF- Nice!!..Sorry, I just checked and don't see an email. I probably deleted it by mistake.
ReplyDeleteYou guys have any idea why the hit AH's? 1160 is a big number to me.
SIAL - ?
ReplyDeleteWhat the heck is that one CP?
ReplyDeleteShanghai - RSI(7) coming down from nearly 80 (Nov 4th), now at ~31
ReplyDeleteSIAL - Specialty chemicals - "chemical products and kits are used in scientific research, including genomic and proteomic research, biotechnology, and pharmaceutical development"
ReplyDeleteLooks oversold...
TOF - Was wondering why you were in a silent period. Recalled that wife was due soon. Congratulations! A child will change your life, for the better. (You also passed on your y-chromosome. That's the one in the male line. Not that it matters much but it is traceable though time).
ReplyDeleteNovember 22, 2011 7:58 PM
CIM - Nearly 20% dividend...
ReplyDeleteAside: Germany - I say we send our military on a worthy mission for once; it's time to go kick some Kraut a$$ again...
"Not that it matters much"
ReplyDeleteI can't give mine away anymore either, let alone assigning a value to it.
EEM - IH&S still hanging in there...
ReplyDeletethanks for the well wishes fellas...this little dude likes boobies more than his ole man. im just praying his jaundice settles down for tomorrows test.
ReplyDeletemark - cant believe u deleted the email! maybe chk ur trash bin? i'll have to resend later in the week but it was all abt my comments on those sites.
glad to see the raging bull 2nd is back on the wagon. also nice to see ur open to trading this mkt. i suspect we will have plenty of trading opps for the next couple of years.
WNR - Well, that H&S neck line looks like around $10.50 while the P/E seems quite low...
ReplyDelete2nd,
ReplyDeleteIf you're looking at largecaps, I'd take a look at MET (Metlife). Trading at 0.52 times book and forward P/E of 5.5, yield of 2.5%.
They normally trade at valuations of P/B of 1.3 and P/E of 13, so 250% upside from here.
Plus, management is looking to return more capital to shareholders through increased dividends and share buybacks. They were stopped by the Fed this quarter as they own a small bank (2% of revenues), so they are selling this. Other than that, the state insurance regulators (who did a much better job this cycle than the Fed), says they are well capitalized and they were just upgraded by AM Best. They also were offered, but did not take TARP money in 2009.
They've only had a loss one year in the last 10 (2009) and it was nothing outrageous - equal to any of the last 7 years profits.
They also bought one of the major international divisions of AIG and get exposure to emerging economies and higher margins from this.
Tof, these little guys appreciate how easily they get boobies now considering how hard their going to have to work when they get them when they are older!
ReplyDeletetof- Not a raging bull yet, but getting close. My goal, of course, is not to catch the bottom- just to start scaling back in as sentiment turns negative.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the MET recommendation, BB. I'll take a look.
ReplyDeleteWhether we close green or red today, my take right now is to reestablish positions in broad index funds by EOD.
ReplyDeleteArticle on the current status of the silver market:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.financialsense.com/contributors/ron-hera/2011/11/22/keith-neumeyer-the-silver-market-lacks-integrity
I like the sell off today. Beautiful headlines also. If the goal is to sell on exuberance and buy on negativity, today's a good time to buy.
ReplyDeleteGRPN falling hard and fast.
ReplyDeleteThey don't really have a viable long term, but surprised how fast this is falling off. Thought we'd get a bigger run up first.
Again, 1160 is my take.
ReplyDeleteInteresting CSTR is nicely green.
Germany failed bond auction, plus rates now back above the US may be the push needed to get Germany to allow the ECB to get involved in cleaning up this mess.
ReplyDeleteWhat does 1160 represent, Mark?
ReplyDelete2nd- .618 Fib level from 1074-1292 is 1158. I also like the support on the chart and bounce at 1160.
ReplyDeleteThis is hurray for the dollar month... ;)
ReplyDelete"US may be the push needed to get Germany"
ReplyDeleteYes, send in the US military to finish the job!
In that case, I'm officially bullish. It's hard to imagine how much worse the headlines can get.
ReplyDeleteHard to believe a $1.5B shelf can put such a floor under silver and gold...
ReplyDeleteSIAL - Still got a little more downside in it, I expect:
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SIAL&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p99295968853&a=217994610&r=7 736
CSTR - Attempting to head back up now...
ReplyDeleteGMO - Under $3 has always been a good entry, hopefully we get a capitulatory selloff that really takes her down to levels even I can't refuse...
ReplyDeleteOkay, so I see now we've finally filled that gap up over the 50SMA...
ReplyDeleteCP - SIAL has a very large percentage of it's sales in Europe. Very vulnerable to the Euro Zone crisis.
ReplyDeleteAUMN - Not far from it's 52wk low...
ReplyDeleteillini - Thx, I don't know much about SIAL aside from the chart.
ReplyDeleteSAIL - BACML reiterated a buy on 10/25, day of earnings and near the recent high with $75 PO target...
ReplyDeleteSIAL - Morningstar rated buy 11/18
ReplyDeleteHere goes my margin call...
ReplyDeleteAs a first line of defense, I just sold at $8 3 DB December $40 puts that I bought last Thursday for $5.50 when S&P first breached the 1220 support level. That's a "consolation prize" of $750 for me. :)
Unfortunately, that didn't bring me enough buying power. Well, I'll see what happens on Monday and if the market doesn't rally, then I'll probably sell my 3000 shares of NLS that I picked up at $1.90...
Unfortunately, I have a feeling that most bulls are hoping for S&P to make a higher low relative to 1120 or, at the worst case, to make a double bottom at 1120. Thus, they will not really capitulate until S&P breaks through 1100. Isn't that right?
ReplyDeletelet it drop, let it drop, let it drop.... I agree with 2nd assessment of the situation and have been using this opportunity to start scaling in to big dividend names: JNJ, PG, T. Not sure if we are at the bottom but we definitely reached the value territory.
ReplyDeleteLooking on the bright side of things, HAO is still above its October 20 low, which should help keeping GDXJ from falling apart.
ReplyDeleteThe bottom in AUMN today was at $6.17, and its 52-week low was at $6.14 (on October 4) -- does it count as a double bottom? :)
ReplyDeleteThe 30-year bond yields are at 2.84% now! How can you go wrong by scaling into TBT now, with the intent of scaling out on every pop in yields? From this point, they most definitely don't have much further to fall, so this strategy would just initiate a nice "money pump."
ReplyDeleteBased on my feeling about the 1120 support not necessarily holding, I just sold all my 3000 shares of NLS at $1.71, which I picked up at $1.90 a couple of weeks back. This, finally, brought back some buying power for me, taking care of today's margin call.
ReplyDeleteThis is a good example, TOF, of why people sell stocks when they are oversold instead of buying them -- because of margin calls! :)
Performance of the stock market "Turkey to Taxes" is statistically much better than "Taxes to Turkey." The "Turkey to Taxes" phase starts next week. :)
ReplyDeleteKinda feels like Turkey day 2009 with Dubai.
ReplyDeleteTLT is above $123 now -- looks like people are really giving up on equities today. That bodes well for a bounce next week...
ReplyDeleteGLD and SLV are holding up pretty well despite the huge rally in $USD today... The pattern of higher lows for SLV since October 4 is still intact... GDXJ has a very high correlation with SLV, and the major underperformance of SLV by GDXJ will most likely be resolved by a huge rally in GDXJ so as to catch up with SLV, provided the pattern of higher lows for SLV holds...
ReplyDeleteAUMN - Assuming that's a double bottom (it has that intermediate drop, so maybe not?), the target seems to be $12.
ReplyDeleteI don't want to consider any possibility this may be a double top formation.
TLT or GLD? Why hide in TLT when RSI(7) is topping out while GLD RSI is moving up from bottoming?
ReplyDeleteFolks, are you tired of this sell-off already? It is becoming boring...
ReplyDeleteBut then, looking at the S&P chart since July, I CAN'T believe that it should retest 1120 -- those huge whipsaw oscillations in August/September followed by a major breakout above the oscillation range MUST mean that the bottom is in place.
ReplyDeleteThe bad thing about tomorrow is just Europe (well, and Canada) is open tomorrow, so the news will probably be all bad and we won't have the offestting good, improving news from the U.S.
ReplyDeleteProbably make for another down day, unless, of course, Europe steps up and start addressing their problems.
Unless of course, the pope telling the ECB to print money actually works. http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2011/11/23/vatican-banker-ecb-should-act-as-lender-of-last-resort/?mod=WSJBlog
"are you tired of this sell-off already?"
ReplyDeleteNot since discovering that consumption of copious amounts of alcohol tends to make the day considerably shorter. ;)
A fair technical assessment of the silver chart:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.whackotrader.com/2011/11/silver.html
HAPPY THANKSGIVING FELLAS!!!
ReplyDeleteAs far as the market goes, OUCH. That out to do it. No more financial reading, cnbc watching, chart studying for me for the next couple of days. It's movies and football.
well shoot, OUGHT not OUT in the above post
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