Sorry guys I have been like, working, not a man of leisure like all the other DT members. Also my work is blocking Drunk topics, yet I can get youtube? Go figure. Hope everyone is positioned for the 20% bailout rally because no one likes a bailout better than wallstreet. This article might be the reason why. Those occupy freaks don't know what they are talking about.1.2 trillion in one day peanuts. Wonder what we don't know about Europe. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-28/secret-fed-loans-undisclosed-to-congress-gave-banks-13-billion-in-income.html
RB, this bloomberg article makes my head hurt. On one hand, what the hell are they doing? On the other hand, what would happen if a bank CEO came out and said "we're toast".
This does shed some light on the weak dollar. There are probably a lot more dollars running around than we think and there are probably a few peeps that have better insight to that than we do.
So if we climb into CP's ICT (infinite circle thinking) mode, I would think the ECB not bailing out these countries would strengthen the euro. Whoever owns the debt would take a smacking. 8, 9, or even 10% interest on Spain isn't enough to take a risk in my opinion.
I'm just getting updated on what I have in the account after last week. I didn't even look at the market on Friday.
So last wed, I sold short 2 JNJ Dec 60 strike puts for $.73. This would be a long term hold if they get put to me.
And my riskiest trade by far, last wed I bot 2 AAPL Jan 380 strike calls for $17.80. If AAPL drops some more, I may sell 1 lower strike Dec call. At these levels, ignoring futures, I'd be inclined to sell the 340 strike around $4.55 or maybe the 335 strike around $3.65.
If we have a booming day tomorrow I may buy some POT for a trade, I love the ferts.
GS - anybody think there is a buyout price in here somewhere? Hmmmmm.
The IMF Italy Bailout seems to be Bullshit.But ES is holding up. I refuse to trade this crap.I pine for the days of HFT black boxes. This up and down on Europe news is getting old!
TOKYO (Dow Jones)--A report that the International Monetary Fund could offer Italy between EUR400 billion and EUR600 billion in financial support is not credible, people familiar with ongoing international discussions on the European debt crisis said Monday.
The report is "not credible," one of the people told Dow Jones Newswires.
"I think it is baseless," another source also told Dow Jones Newswires. "There has been no talk on something like that among (Group of Seven) authorities."
Italian newspaper La Stampa reported from New York on Sunday that the IMF could offer Italy between EUR400 billion and EUR600 billion in financial support to give Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti a window of 12 to 18 months to enact reforms sufficient to restore waning market confidence in Italy's ability to repay its debt.
port - Yes, but there are a few more criteria that need to be in-place and I'm trying to do a better job working those out for myself currently. Am trying to instill more discipline in my trading.
Have been following Steve Grasso's ( http://twitter.com/#!/grassosteve) levels-based approach. Several comments that caught my attention:
"i like 2 look at the $SPX in 13 handle blocks 4 now i sell"
"want to see some bounces hold ,, some real panic selling and then closing on highs of day before i switch mkt beasts"
"any bounce i see i would sell into until we close above the 100 dma"
These Renko charts use a 'coarse quantization' to filter out noise in the movements and help me to focus more on the RHS of reversal points.
Kyle - that chart doesn't really look like a tradeable pattern to me.
2nd - What a effin joke...charging $75 fees for each purchase of a stock. My 401k had a self managed account with Schwab where we were getting $9/trade...then they switched to an inhouse brokerage where we had to pay a 3% transaction fee for every trade. In 2010 I paid over $10k in commission and threatened to sue them and told them I was going to report this to the state employment commission and the news. They changed their policy to $15/trade within 6 months and reimbursed me for 80% of the fees.
In spite of opening BrokerageLink accounts in the 403b, I have yet to fund them. They give me the flexibility to open positions outside the official 403b fund listings, but there's also a disadvantage: I would be subject to higher fees- ie, the usual trading fees apply.
Not really a big deal, but let's say I want to open positions in a Vanguard fund. Each purchase would then subject me to a $75 fee, since Vanguard has no agreement with Fidelity to waive the fee. Whereas purchasing any Vanguard fund in the company plan incurs no fee.
Kyle- No, it's not that bad. It would be the usual $7.95/trade for stocks, but I found out last month that I'm not allowed to trade stocks in the 403b anyway- only mutual funds. The entire fund universe is available to me, but unless the fund belongs to a family that 'reciprocates' with Fidelity, the fund purchase is subject to $75 fees.
tof - it was a joke man. I'll be trading off of the 'blocking' structure in $SPX. We're right in the middle of the 21-22 Nov narrow channel (1182-1198). Let's see how that goes... :-)
MCP -- 11:53 AM Molycorp (MCP +10.5%) skies on the announcement of a joint venture with Daido Steel and Mitsubishi to produce and sell next-generation neodymium-iron-boron permanent rare earth magnets. The production will make use of a new technology that allows greater magnet performance with less reliance on the scarce rare earth dysprosium. End users will be the automotive and home appliance industries.
I see AUMN had a nice bounce in the morning, but it was sold. However, GDXJ is having a great day today and so is HAO (incidentally, HAO is still making higher lows since October 4). Since we know that AUMN takes turns outperforming and underperforming GDXJ (thanks to StatArb algorithms that repeatedly go long stocks that are lagging the pack and go short stocks that are leading the pack), I think it is inevitable for AUMN to rocket higher soon. So I just bought 10 more AUMN December $5 calls, this time at $1.30 each.
Added more XWES at $2.8. In my opinion this is one of those cases where someone/some company is probably getting margin calls somewhere and needs to bail on his position. Fundamentally the company has never been stronger. It is trading at about 8 times next years earnings that the company projected. It has almost 25% of its market cap in cash, it has 80%+ margins with recurring revenues, and it has a HUGE addressable market.
RSI(7) on XWES is now 11. That's quite low. I remember WNC got down to 3 when it hit its low, but when it hit 11 it gave a solid 35% return within 3 months. If you got lucky and waited until it hit 3 then you got a 60% return in 3 months. But I've rarely ever seen low to mid single digits RSI(7)s.
I think we close above 1200. The bulls may wait until the final hour, or even the last 15 minutes, but I sense a blitz on the bears' defense as they try to minimize losses in the last quarter.
Nice timing on your last sell and current buy 2nd!
ReplyDeleteActually, might be a bit premature on the buy congrats - think you will do well though.
ReplyDeleteWhy only 10 why not 20. We have a whole month.
ReplyDeleteOh, great. The aliens finally release RB and that's all we get!!
ReplyDeleteSorry guys I have been like, working, not a man of leisure like all the other DT members. Also my work is blocking Drunk topics, yet I can get youtube? Go figure. Hope everyone is positioned for the 20% bailout rally because no one likes a bailout better than wallstreet. This article might be the reason why. Those occupy freaks don't know what they are talking about.1.2 trillion in one day peanuts. Wonder what we don't know about Europe.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-28/secret-fed-loans-undisclosed-to-congress-gave-banks-13-billion-in-income.html
RB, this bloomberg article makes my head hurt. On one hand, what the hell are they doing? On the other hand, what would happen if a bank CEO came out and said "we're toast".
ReplyDeleteThis does shed some light on the weak dollar. There are probably a lot more dollars running around than we think and there are probably a few peeps that have better insight to that than we do.
So if we climb into CP's ICT (infinite circle thinking) mode, I would think the ECB not bailing out these countries would strengthen the euro. Whoever owns the debt would take a smacking. 8, 9, or even 10% interest on Spain isn't enough to take a risk in my opinion.
kyle, this is a pretty chart, what does it mean?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.screencast.com/t/r1kyneLaaAyW
I assume that is volume at the bottom of the chart with red and green bars so do you wait for some greens to show up before you buy?
I'm just getting updated on what I have in the account after last week. I didn't even look at the market on Friday.
ReplyDeleteSo last wed, I sold short 2 JNJ Dec 60 strike puts for $.73. This would be a long term hold if they get put to me.
And my riskiest trade by far, last wed I bot 2 AAPL Jan 380 strike calls for $17.80. If AAPL drops some more, I may sell 1 lower strike Dec call. At these levels, ignoring futures, I'd be inclined to sell the 340 strike around $4.55 or maybe the 335 strike around $3.65.
If we have a booming day tomorrow I may buy some POT for a trade, I love the ferts.
GS - anybody think there is a buyout price in here somewhere? Hmmmmm.
The IMF Italy Bailout seems to be Bullshit.But ES is holding up. I refuse to trade this crap.I pine for the days of HFT black boxes. This up and down on Europe news is getting old!
ReplyDeleteTOKYO (Dow Jones)--A report that the International Monetary Fund could offer Italy between EUR400 billion and EUR600 billion in financial support is not credible, people familiar with ongoing international discussions on the European debt crisis said Monday.
ReplyDeleteThe report is "not credible," one of the people told Dow Jones Newswires.
"I think it is baseless," another source also told Dow Jones Newswires. "There has been no talk on something like that among (Group of Seven) authorities."
Italian newspaper La Stampa reported from New York on Sunday that the IMF could offer Italy between EUR400 billion and EUR600 billion in financial support to give Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti a window of 12 to 18 months to enact reforms sufficient to restore waning market confidence in Italy's ability to repay its debt.
port - Yes, but there are a few more criteria that need to be in-place and I'm trying to do a better job working those out for myself currently. Am trying to instill more discipline in my trading.
ReplyDeleteHave been following Steve Grasso's ( http://twitter.com/#!/grassosteve) levels-based approach. Several comments that caught my attention:
"i like 2 look at the $SPX in 13 handle blocks 4 now i sell"
"want to see some bounces hold ,, some real panic selling and then closing on highs of day before i switch mkt beasts"
"any bounce i see i would sell into until we close above the 100 dma"
These Renko charts use a 'coarse quantization' to filter out noise in the movements and help me to focus more on the RHS of reversal points.
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:renko
http://blogs.stockcharts.com/dont_ignore_this_chart/2009/12/renko-charts-filter-the-noise.html
Thanks, BB. Until I read your post, I didn't realize my last 'trading post' wasn't entirely clear:
ReplyDelete2nd_ave said...
Whether we close green or red today, my take right now is to reestablish positions in broad index funds by EOD.
November 23, 2011 6:38 AM
As of Wednesday's close, my positioning has been:
(a) 45% in a mix of AA/GE/POT/TM/WFC
(b) 55% in VINIX, a Vanguard fund in the 403b which basically tracks the SPX
"Watching for the 'Moon-Bounce' Rally until 10 Dec then a little TZA until Xmas Eve....
ReplyDeletehttp://caracommunity.com/sites/default/files/moon_oid_112311_4.png "
Kyle - that chart doesn't really look like a tradeable pattern to me.
2nd - What a effin joke...charging $75 fees for each purchase of a stock. My 401k had a self managed account with Schwab where we were getting $9/trade...then they switched to an inhouse brokerage where we had to pay a 3% transaction fee for every trade. In 2010 I paid over $10k in commission and threatened to sue them and told them I was going to report this to the state employment commission and the news. They changed their policy to $15/trade within 6 months and reimbursed me for 80% of the fees.
In spite of opening BrokerageLink accounts in the 403b, I have yet to fund them. They give me the flexibility to open positions outside the official 403b fund listings, but there's also a disadvantage: I would be subject to higher fees- ie, the usual trading fees apply.
ReplyDeleteNot really a big deal, but let's say I want to open positions in a Vanguard fund. Each purchase would then subject me to a $75 fee, since Vanguard has no agreement with Fidelity to waive the fee. Whereas purchasing any Vanguard fund in the company plan incurs no fee.
Kyle- No, it's not that bad. It would be the usual $7.95/trade for stocks, but I found out last month that I'm not allowed to trade stocks in the 403b anyway- only mutual funds. The entire fund universe is available to me, but unless the fund belongs to a family that 'reciprocates' with Fidelity, the fund purchase is subject to $75 fees.
ReplyDeletetof - it was a joke man. I'll be trading off of the 'blocking' structure in $SPX. We're right in the middle of the 21-22 Nov narrow channel (1182-1198). Let's see how that goes... :-)
ReplyDeleteFinally CC discloses, but no miner disclosure in WIR, just daily(price ain't fallin', tell 'em we're long!)... Like a roach hotel, no-tell, motel.
ReplyDelete"In the All Weather portfolio, we are long; CEF, FCX, GG, SLW, SVM, NGD, UXG"
CSTR upgraded by JPM. PT 50.
ReplyDeleteCSTR upgrade info:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.forbes.com/sites/ericsavitz/2011/11/28/coinstar-j-p-morgan-upgrades-shares-spike/
Added some more XWES at $2.85.
ReplyDeleteCSTR - Well, looks like $40 was the deal...
ReplyDeleteLOL, BAC is up today... I wanna see $3 before I commit more capital to anything, currently considering TZA hedge instead of getting longer...
Gaps up must fill at some point, just a question of when, right?
MCP -- 11:53 AM Molycorp (MCP +10.5%) skies on the announcement of a joint venture with Daido Steel and Mitsubishi to produce and sell next-generation neodymium-iron-boron permanent rare earth magnets. The production will make use of a new technology that allows greater magnet performance with less reliance on the scarce rare earth dysprosium. End users will be the automotive and home appliance industries.
ReplyDeleteI see AUMN had a nice bounce in the morning, but it was sold. However, GDXJ is having a great day today and so is HAO (incidentally, HAO is still making higher lows since October 4). Since we know that AUMN takes turns outperforming and underperforming GDXJ (thanks to StatArb algorithms that repeatedly go long stocks that are lagging the pack and go short stocks that are leading the pack), I think it is inevitable for AUMN to rocket higher soon. So I just bought 10 more AUMN December $5 calls, this time at $1.30 each.
ReplyDeleteAdded more XWES at $2.8. In my opinion this is one of those cases where someone/some company is probably getting margin calls somewhere and needs to bail on his position. Fundamentally the company has never been stronger. It is trading at about 8 times next years earnings that the company projected. It has almost 25% of its market cap in cash, it has 80%+ margins with recurring revenues, and it has a HUGE addressable market.
ReplyDeletePlacing a sell limit at $2.30 for the 10 AUMN calls I just picked up at $1.30, so as to book a nice round $1000 gain.
ReplyDeleteSVM - Okay, so we just closed the gap up, now comes the test of buyer conviction...
ReplyDeleteOK, I added some more XWES at $2.85. I now have about 35-40% in this stock. I believe it will be a solid longer term investment.
ReplyDeleteRSI(7) on XWES is now 11. That's quite low. I remember WNC got down to 3 when it hit its low, but when it hit 11 it gave a solid 35% return within 3 months. If you got lucky and waited until it hit 3 then you got a 60% return in 3 months. But I've rarely ever seen low to mid single digits RSI(7)s.
ReplyDeleteI think we close above 1200. The bulls may wait until the final hour, or even the last 15 minutes, but I sense a blitz on the bears' defense as they try to minimize losses in the last quarter.
ReplyDeleteNo mercy.
David- There's no chance BAC owns AUMN, right?
ReplyDeleteMan, bonds are calling bull shit.
ReplyDeleteThat was an ugly bar.
ReplyDeleteBottom line, they've been selling since 30 minutes after the open.
ReplyDeleteLooks like the market is paying more attention to Mark's post than to mine.
ReplyDeleteLast 15 minutes go to you 2nd.
ReplyDeleteUnreal. SPX closes right at 1193, what many technical analysts see as the line we need close above.
ReplyDelete