"The sun, the moon, the planets, the stars, the equities, the commodities, gold and silver all rose in the east this morning -- at exactly 6am ET thanks to the People's Bank of China. The reserve ratio required of the lending banks was lowered, instantly making more capital available to those individuals and companies interested in taking on more debt, all in the hope they would invest it in the economy.
China, it seems, is the economic engine of the world, and the power that lifts markets."
What's the buy-and-hold observation? Most of the market's gain in a given year are concentrated in moves made on 10-15 trading days. This has to be one of them.
achutan said we're definitely going to have a recession...i suspect this period is goingg to prove yet another infallible guy wrong. i hope so given the ego on that guy...
Global recession and China was tightening, as if they aren't as capable of picking winners and losers as any other government, it must be really difficult keeping commodities prices down when demand can do nothing but go up while producing those resources becomes increasingly more challenging.
SPX - Looking at the SPX in 13 point blocks had been working quite well from 1158 (1158-1171-1184- ... - 1223-1236-1249-1262). Will see how new range gets established. Sold some ERX, TNA and covered some short puts in MCP, ANR. Still short some puts in SLW, FCX, GS, RIG that I'll let ride for a while.
RIG -- 1:38 PM Shares of Transocean (RIG +2.6%) are stable today after the company prices its 26M share secondary offering at $40.50, just a 2.7% discount to Tuesday's close. The drilling giant is using the funds to help refinance its recent acquisition of Norwegian rival Aker Drilling ASA.
Japan Nuclear Reactor Incident -- 2:49 PM A sobering read: TEPCO (TKECF.PK) now says the Fukushima disaster was closer o an uncontrollable catastrophic meltdown than its previous versions of events. In an overdue stipulation, the firm says nuclear rods in reactor #1 at the plant likely melted down completely, spilling over and eating through 75% of a concrete base that served as the last containment between the radioactive core and the environment.
TEPCO - Yeah, Duh! It all starts with embracing a dedicated industrial safety program managed and run by trained professionals who have the authority to make decisions.
If you don't have such a program, you're headed for trouble.
2nd_ave -- let me join Igor in congratulating you on excellent timing of recent trades: selling at the top of the first leg up (S&P $1280) and then re-entering at the bottom of the pullback (S&P $1160). I admit, I was skeptical about you not entering after the market quickly dropped to 1220, and when it bounced back up to 1240, I thought you had missed the bottom. But I guess the strategy of selling the hyperexcitement and re-entering at hypergloom is really a low risk one, and most of the time hypergloom happens at lower prices than the most recent hyperexcitement...
I am on Maui right now, since Thursday last week. Checking the market only during breakfast, before heading out to the beaches with my family (the beaches are amazing in the Wailea area -- perfect sand intermixed with patches of live coral reefs, teeming with fish and other marine life -- saw an octopus and two large turtles today). And then checking back again when we return from the beach to have lunch and organize afternoon naps for children.
FROM IBD Volume rose 17% on the NYSE and 26% on the Nasdaq, according to preliminary data.
That is not a huge increase in volume considering the magnitude of the move, But I believe the nasdaq had the largest volume all month.
Great stats to keep today in perspective. See the dates on the biggest point moves in history and ignore the homeless person begging for money on top of the page. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_daily_changes_in_the_Dow_Jones_Industrial_Average
The giveaway that the recent pullback in S&P was just a pullback in the middle of a longer term uptrend was that HAO kept making higher lows since October 4. If the smart money wasn't sure that Europe's problems will be adequately solved, then the high-risk Chinese small caps would not be trending up...
As it is right now, we got a nice double bottom in GDXJ and a nice sequence of higher lows in both SLV and HAO.
When GDXJ rises to a new post-October 4 high (probably in the next couple of weeks), AUMN should be above $10...
Okay, what did global central banks actually do today, anyway? It looks like this plan provides liquidity:
FED Announced:
"These swap lines are being implemented as a contingency measure, so that central banks can offer liquidity in foreign currencies if market conditions warrant such actions. These lines provide the Federal Reserve with the same ability to provide foreign currency, should the need arise, as foreign central banks currently have through the existing dollar swap lines with the Federal Reserve to provide dollar liquidity in their jurisdictions...."
Observation:
"There has not been a decision to activate the foreign currency liquidity facilities. If the Federal Reserve were to decide to offer liquidity in foreign currencies to U.S. financial institutions, the details of the operations would be determined at that time in light of the prevailing circumstances.
If the Fed decides to open a new Term Auction Facility, this time for extending euro-denominated loans to U.S. banks, it will once again find itself needing to distinguish between the problems of solvency and liquidity. No action by a central bank can solve the problem of a debt that's not going to be repaid. But central banks can help avoid the added economic damage that is caused when markets for all loans, good or bad, get disrupted by the uncertainty. In the fall of 2008, the Fed successfully figured out how to navigate that fine line. Let's hope they have the wisdom to do so this time as well."
RB- You read my mind. I was going to suggest that Mark post his photo above the blog and start panhandling- it will enhance our professional image and lend credibility to the site.
"Do institutions start to jump in, now that we've cleared several resistance levels?"
I think all depends on which way the dollar goes, a close over 80 will indicate further upside rally, but if the dollar continues downward, 80 is the target.
2nd - I agree, excellent timing and you are probably more relaxed than the rest of us I bet too.
Now a tale of woe
I posted the note on China while eating my Quaker Oatmeal Squares with a hint of brown sugar. Normally I eat breakfast at work but today I was a little ahead of schedule so decided to ck on Mr. Market while eating at home.
Very interesting, why would China cut? Oh well, off to work I go. I get in to the office where we have CNBC on all the time on one of our plasma screens. Ahhhh, all the central banks are flooding the system in a coordinated effort. The market is gonna rocket. Dow +230? no way, we'e going a lot higher.
So what did I do, I bot 100 shares of my favorite stock, premarket. Market opens, things are looking good, my stock starts to fall. Oh well, it does have a lot of volatility. at my stock my 2.50, i buy 3 jan calls to boot.
What was it you ask? on a dow +490 day? CF - finished the day at $139.89, down $3.96. I bot premarket around 147.50 and I'll have a stop in place for it should it drop further.
Gartman talked about CF on the Fast Money web extra. He said its down because farmers are getting better at utilizing their fertilizer and don't need as much. While that may be true, I don't think thats why CF dropped today. Corn, POT, MOS, AGU, and DBA were all up. DBA wasn't up much but it was still green. My buddy and I have 2 theories. 1) something bad and very CF specific is going on that we don't know about yet OR 2) some fund was long CF, short the general market and had to sell CF to cover the shorts.
So either way, CF can still drop tomorrow under both scenarios. My plan is to set stops on the stock that I will also use as a trigger to sell half my CF calls and then let the other half ride.
Mark, I'm not so sure that explanation was complete, I see where the FED made dollars available to euro banks, I guess this means now they don't have to buy them in the market and drive the dollar up...?
"I think all depends on which way the dollar goes, a close over 80 will indicate further upside rally, but if the dollar continues downward, 80 is the target."
Crap, that made no sense at all!
Dollar must keep moving down, downside target is 70. A close over 80 would be dollar bullish.
1. Jeremy Cook, chief economist at foreign exchange company World First, suggested that central bankers had tired of European leaders' failure to fix the euro crisis.
"Cutting swap costs is the equivalent of interest rate cuts," Cook explained. "This may have been a signal that the money markets were a short shove away from complete collapse."
2. The Bank of England joined the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the ECB, the Bank of Canada and the Swiss National Bank in taking the measures.
AND
Separately, the ECB, which has come under intense pressure in recent weeks over its role in the deteriorating eurozone crisis, said it would now be able to provide liquidity to struggling banks in yen, sterling, Swiss francs and Canadian dollars if necessary.
Maybe we should invite Barry on DT. I think he would fit right in. Barry Ritholtz "At times, I have described Good News as Bad — meaning that is could encourage the Fed withdrawing its accommodation, raising rates, pressuring margins, earnings and equity prices.
Today’s coordinated central bank intervention is the opposite: A Euro-zone bank on the verge of collapse prompted this extraordinary action.
So this a case where the news is so Bad it becomes Good for stocks: The financial system is so (choose 1 or more) vulnerable / compromised / inter-related / fragile that it required the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, and the Swiss National Bank to coordinate a joint liquidity event. So Bad News (near collapse) becomes Good News (equity rally).
The volume was so-so, except for the end of month/quarter buy on close surge; Monday’s volume was light as well. So this runs to 1250, maybe even 1300. Does it have legs? Will the surge suck the traders in (or trade the suckers in?)
Of course, these actions reflect the underlying weakness, and adds to the eventual bill to be paid (interest and penalties continue to accrue).
Now in item 2 above, there is no mention of China but I think this was a coordinated move and China is part of it. The next thing that I find interesting is I think it's still our Fed doing most of the lending out of that group which to me means weaker dollar.
One comment on minyanville was that a bank was going under but I'm betting it was Italy going under. Of course that would probably drive a bank or two under as well.
Mark, ur right about that. Next time I'll just buy a double long. I already had 500 SSO which went green for the first time today. I should have just bot more of those or how about OIH? I think XLF and OIH were the big ETF winners today.
too many peeps concerned with the day to day action. fact is the us economy continues to grow, stocks are historically on the cheap side, and the majority are pessimistic. makes for a good bull.
I might not understand the Cent bank action, but didn't it just treat the symptoms and not the disease. The sovereign bonds are not backstopped in anyway with this action right? The run up today is more in anticipation of further interventions. I assume the so called euro bond to backstop all the other shit paper is the desired outcome. Are they closer to doing this now. Or maybe todays cent bank action was in anticipation of an "Orderly default" Which I don't think will be as well received by the market.
Think your right also RB...Something along those lines. We're trading gap to gap right now. I honestly don't know if this will ever change. Times/technology are different now. I've said it/asked before, if some idiot like me can short/long 3X though an ETF which has the effect of a 3M bet during breakfast, how the fuck does that square?
I'm in the camp of just do something too, this "dollar waiting on a dime" stuff isn't helping anyone. Unwind all these arb trades and complex financial engineering rube goldberg derivatives so the rest of us can get down to the business of doing business. You need to borrow a few billion bucks to settle out your trades, then you've got 'em.
Yes Mark your with the times. leverage up. One of the proposed fixes for the euro debt crisis that actually rallied the market close to 400 points just a little while ago was the 1.2 trillion bailout. YEt it really wasn't 1.2 trillion, but 250 billion that was going to to be leveraged up 5X. Trouble was no one wanted to be the broker.
What do you know,I have been block out from this site since mid October. If this works my next post will be article or link on Robear's symptom vs diease comment.
Yes, today’s action is an attempt to throw liquidity at a solvency problem, but failing to stem the rise in OIS RATES COULD HAVE CREATED A MELTDOWN. If the slide in all assets continues, the cost of intervention would rise exponentially. The FINANCIAL AUTHORITIES cannot afford for the speculative forces to get the traction of momentum at this time on the calendar.
We don't have to sign in each time, but I did have to make my own page (top right corner) then sign in one a week b/c I don't have any other recognizable blogosphere/social media presence.
Not sure what an OIS is, but I do know what a TLA is...
I thin the rally continues - maybe we have a small pullback after such a run, but I think the markets are higher a couple of months from now.
1. Not many people believe in this rally. 2. New rally's almost always start on low volume and the volume grows as people engage 3. Valuations are still exceptionally cheap. US stocks could rise 20% and just be at market average P/E or over 40% to get back to average P/E relative to current low interest rates. 4. The Euro problem is being worked and a solution will be found. Doesn't really matter much what the solution is, just that the uncertainty ends. 5. Seasonality, underinvested funds, performance anxiety, etc. 6. Companies are being run well. Margins are being protected and companies are not taking on undue risks. 7. The U.S. economy is getting better as per economic reports (also, Canadian economy is doing well) and China is easing to increase growth - these 2 will overcome European weakness and pull the world economy forward.
I'm supposing equities will remain correlated with PM's being these are money and/or commodities, thus perhaps these comments are applicable to some extent:
Trader Dan Norcini's comments:
"Today's actions by the Fed, in concert with 5 other Central Banks, plus the move by China to lower bank reserve requirements 50 basis points, the first time they have done so in three years, has provided today's fireworks across the commodity and equity marks. It is RISK ON time once again for the hedgies.
I mentioned in my analysis of the COT report yesterday, that the metals needed some sort of fundamental spark to break them out of their respective trading ranges. Perhaps we have that, at least for today, in the form of easing of liquidity concerns. That is unclear to me at this point since this really does not do anything to address the structural issues leading up to the sovereign debt issues. It is simply keeping a liquidity crisis from becoming a full-blown insolvency crisis.
This might explain why after the initial blast higher in the markets on the euphoria around the Central Bank actions, that the markets have not been able to continue adding to their early session gains. Traders are maybe having second thoughts about all this. I know I sure am. While it will temporarily help ease lending concerns, it still does not address the sinking value of all that sovereign debt on the books of the big European banks, nor of that on the books of some US banks. It seems to me we are going to have to see a very clear, unambiguous signal that Germany is going to go along with a large role for the ECB and maybe even a Eurobond market before traders will get more aggressive to the upside.
Regardless, silver has been able to capture its first line of technical chart resistance centered near the $32.50 level. This is its first visit back to this level in a week's time. That has served to reinforce the support level that formed just below the $31 level. For this market to now get anything going to the upside, it is going to have to first convincingly clear $33.50 and then exceed $35. Only then will it have a shot at anything more than a return to the top of its recent trading range."
The FED's move yesterday sounds almost like a huge currency peg...
Currency stability? - So now evaluations won't be a phenomenon so dependent on currency fluctuation?
Considering the FED was forced to take a this measure (is there any historical precedent?), will the market interpret the circumstances as a warning sign?
WNR - 1:09 PM Western Refining (WNR +7%) pops after announcing it's selling its idled Yorktown, Virginia refinery, plus an underutilized segment of its crude oil pipeline in southeast New Mexico, to subsidiaries of Plains All American Pipeline (PAA +1.4%) for $220M.
Gold-to-silver (Au:Ag) ratio of 52.8 which is close to the center of a declining channel that we've been in since Sept. 23, with a high of 57.0 on Sep. 26 and a low of 49.5 Oct. 28.
F - Agreed, it's gonna sell off no matter if they ship one, or a billion cars.
Everything's gonna sell off, and keep on selling to infinity until there's nothing remaining to sell. Then it'll sell even more, just to prove it still can, until finally, another wave of selling begins.
After all, isn't it obvious that any P/E greater than unity is way overpriced?
T3d - Sorry about the delayed post. I just checked my email...
Kyle, could you please post this at Trading Topics.
Hello gang, since mid October Google says “Your current account does not have access to view this page. I have not found a work around. I had responded to TOF on XWES and CP on Thorium, but it did not go through. I’m just able to view and read.
That said I really do not have that much to say anyhow. When you guys were writing about all the weird stuff happening to you, the same was happening to me too. During the third week of OCT, I had two deaths in our family within 5 days of each other, one being my Father.
The great thing about life is that for every death there is a birth. TOF, congratulations to you and your wife on the birth or your son. Life will never be quite the same again.
Periodically I try to post and very occasionally it goes through as today did once. Good luck to everyone and Happy Holidays if my transmission is broke.
T3D, Grounds control to Major Tom’s, I think there’s something wrong.
Speaking about the equities being cheap now: I just got around to reading what Hussman wrote last Sunday. Here is an excerpt from it:
****
Finally, the Flow of Funds data include two handy series, one representing the total net worth of nonfinancial companies, and the second representing the market value of the equities (stocks) of those companies. Intuitively, if those calculations are any good, one would expect the ratio of equity market value to total net worth to be a reasonable valuation indicator.
In fact, that's just what we see. Though the Flow of Funds data isn't as useful as one would like in practice (since it is only reported quarterly with a lag), it turns out that a low ratio of equity market value to total net worth is a very good indicator of high subsequent total returns for the S&P 500 over the following 10-year period. In contrast, a high ratio of equity market value to total net worth is predictably followed by weak 10-year total returns for the S&P 500.
Let's call this the price-to-net-worth ratio. As of the latest data, the market value of the equities ($15.21 trillion) for non-financial companies was nearly equal to the total net worth of those companies ($15.05 trillion) for a price-to-net-worth ratio of about 1.01. Note that this is NOT fair value - rather, the historical median and average of the price-to-net-worth ratio is just 0.75. The present level of about 1.0 has historically corresponded to a subsequent 10-year S&P 500 total return averaging only about 5% annually, which is fairly close to the estimate we get from a variety of other historically reliable methods, though the recent decline has improved our expectations a bit.
*****
He then gives a chart that shows a very good correlation between the above predicted 10-year return on S&P and the actually observed return. The recent sharp rally in S&P pushes the predicted 10-year return back below 5%, and it has been that low ONLY for a few years during late 90's. So a straight "buy-and-hold" of broad equity indices is a pretty bad investment strategy to follow for the next 10 years. However, if one were to modify it using the "2nd_ave method" of selling during exuberance and reloading during panics, then one can get a much better 10-year return, as 2nd_ave has recently demonstrated.
Equities may be cheap but I am waiting for them to be much cheaper. Markets are very vulnerable now. Financial collapse is a possibility. Cash is king, IMHO.
no trades today. I was happy to see CF go up. I need another $10 rally by monday or tuesday to breakeven on my 7 dec 150 calls. I see no hope for my 2 dec170's so that will be a loss.
I liked the market action today. I guess AAPL helped the nasdaq and that would be my fav group to see up today.
One of the items I subscribe to is Jon Markhams Strategic Advantage. He pointed out that most of the rallies like we had yesterday have occurred in bear markets. I'd love to be able to confirm this someplace else. That does give me a little pause but I'm also thinking, absent any bad news, we should see an up day tomorrow.
From my readings on Minyanville, Mad Hedge Fund, you guys and Jon Markham (or maybe its John), there seems to be a fairly even split between bear and bull sentiment. That's mostly from the post. I'm not keeping count to see if a bull or bear is making several post.
By the way, Minyanville's Buzz and Banter is available free from both Etrade and TD Ameritrade now. This is another one of those things where it takes a while to figure out which writer gives you the best advice.
Mad is bullish for a Christmas rally. it sounds like Markham is too and they both still seem to say down next year.
I like David's post about Hussman above. That's good stuff to remember. I have a hard time doing that too.
I still have my Jan 124 SPY calls from my strangle that I opened on Nov 7th. I'm up on the strangle about $700 I think. If we get a big up day tomorrow I'll start selling some of it.
Wow I figured it out. The trashcan. I am going to sound a whole bunch smarter when I can edit my drunk topics. :). Little Monkey shine tonight. 8.9% alc content in a real smooth dark beer. Taste like a 4.5 % beer. I don't have to tell the DT community the danger that can cause.
Also, take a look at the attached chart: http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2011/12/1/november-auto-sales-hit-two-year-high.html
There is a lot of upside in the economy to still come. Not only are car sales at 3 million under the average for 2000 - 2008, you've also got a deficit of probably 15 - 20 million cars to make up. This will drive a lot of economic growth.
Another good showing by US politicians last night on the payroll tax cuts.
Everyone know the party positions now - would it not make sense to get together and decide how to pass the bill in private instead of going through these dumb votes all the time.
Now Obama will probably be out today slamming the republicans for not helping the average American" and the republicans will be saying "Obama wants to raise taxes in a recession" and blah, blah blah.
Speaking of employment, I thin the employment companies are good here. I own CDI - it pays a 4% dividend and should do well as employment grows and companies start hiring temps and then full-time employees.
This is from the CC site. I've received 2 of these e-mails w/in the past couple of days... WARNING of email SCAM...
FBI warned of a new spear-phishing campaign Submitted by mayhem991 (172 comments) on Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:37 #101193 The Federal Bureau of Investigation has warned of an elaborate spear-phishing campaign that wires money out of victims' accounts under the cover of a distributed denial-of-service attack against the bank.
The new spear-phishing campaign masquerades as emails from the National Automated Clearing House Assocation (NACHA) and downloads a variant of the Zeus banking Trojan onto the victim's computer, the FBI Denver Cyber Squad said in its warning issued Nov. 23.
The malware steals the user's online banking credentials and launches a DDoS attack on the financial institution to hide the fact that it is also transferring money out of user accounts. The DDoS attacks may also make it difficult for the financial institution to stop or reverse the transfers even if they are detected in time.
The email informs the recipient that there was a problem with a transaction at their bank and it was not processed. By clicking on the link in the email, the recipient is directed to a Website that downloads the Zeus variant called "Gameover" to the recipient’s computer, the FBI warned. Gameover is capable of keylogging to steal banking credentials as well as defeating several forms of two-factor authentication mechanisms the banks may be employing.
The new spear-phishing campaign involves "personal and business bank accounts, financial institutions, money mules and jewelry stores," according to the warning.
"informs recipient of a problem with a transaction at their bank"
Yeah sure, I'd be clicking that link in a split second... Almost as good as the ones I get that claim UPS/FDX tried but failed to deliver a package, contains no info pertinent to any package such as address of sender and recipient, and I should click on this link...
That's better - music for the morning and rocking futures!
ReplyDeleteCP - not sure why you say the links on TT are negative. I'd saying most people here are pretty bullish at the current time.
Negative links - That was a response to 2nd's post claiming we're not mindless posters only considering one side, a little joke from me... ;)
ReplyDeleteNice choice this morn, clean outta' sight...
IYT/FDX/UPS - Hmm, these aren't lookin' all that bad...
Yen up though, even though, dollar down...
From CC:
ReplyDelete"The sun, the moon, the planets, the stars, the equities, the commodities, gold and silver all rose in the east this morning -- at exactly 6am ET thanks to the People's Bank of China. The reserve ratio required of the lending banks was lowered, instantly making more capital available to those individuals and companies interested in taking on more debt, all in the hope they would invest it in the economy.
China, it seems, is the economic engine of the world, and the power that lifts markets."
CC: looking at put protection.
ReplyDeleteWhat's the buy-and-hold observation? Most of the market's gain in a given year are concentrated in moves made on 10-15 trading days. This has to be one of them.
ReplyDeleteGood news all around today - Chicago PMI up, ADP showing job growth.
ReplyDeleteIt wouldn't take much GDP growth and job creation to make a lot of the worries go away.
So much for 1193, 1205, and 1220. Let's hope institutional volume kicks in today, which would pretty much guarantee we've cleared resistance hurdles.
ReplyDeleteNice move higher today fellas...euro worries subside and we go to 1400. Mark I really like the murky and open long setups but im 90% long now.
ReplyDeleteGotta go to hospital little man has some yellow junk building up in his eye...hope its nothing
my phone corrected mitk into murky...
ReplyDeleteachutan said we're definitely going to have a recession...i suspect this period is goingg to prove yet another infallible guy wrong. i hope so given the ego on that guy...
ReplyDeleteWowza!! Peeled off 1/2 AUMN +17%.
ReplyDeleteGL TOF. I'm sure he will be fine.
ReplyDeleteScrew it long OPEN 1,200 shs at $33.6
ReplyDeleteGlobal recession and China was tightening, as if they aren't as capable of picking winners and losers as any other government, it must be really difficult keeping commodities prices down when demand can do nothing but go up while producing those resources becomes increasingly more challenging.
ReplyDeleteS&P 1240 today?
AUMN - Mark, I don't get how you found that entry but I'm glad you did..., now...
ReplyDeleteSPX - Looking at the SPX in 13 point blocks had been working quite well from 1158 (1158-1171-1184- ... - 1223-1236-1249-1262). Will see how new range gets established. Sold some ERX, TNA and covered some short puts in MCP, ANR. Still short some puts in SLW, FCX, GS, RIG that I'll let ride for a while.
ReplyDeleteSold other half of AUMN. Be surprised if we don't continue this volatility.
ReplyDeleteCP- Lucky? ;)
ReplyDeleteSCO - moving UP
ReplyDeleteLucky - Oh please don't tell me that, you don't want us thinking you're holding out!
ReplyDeleteUXG - This article is a few days old, but in case you happen to be interested in UXG and weren't aware.... (we aim to please):
ReplyDelete"US Gold plans to mine Gold Bar"
http://elkodaily.com/mining/article_a554c40c-1a1a-11e1-af69-001cc4c002e0.html
SCO - Moving up is good for equities market, IMO.
ReplyDeleteCP- It is basically the same trade I do all the time. A quick spike below the recent low, then bounce.
ReplyDeleteAUMN +17%? Where's David- asleep at the wheel?
ReplyDeleteOh, OK. +7%. Go back to sleep.
ReplyDeleteRIG -- 1:38 PM Shares of Transocean (RIG +2.6%) are stable today after the company prices its 26M share secondary offering at $40.50, just a 2.7% discount to Tuesday's close. The drilling giant is using the funds to help refinance its recent acquisition of Norwegian rival Aker Drilling ASA.
ReplyDeleteMark,
ReplyDeleteCongratulations on AUMN move. I was a bit early added some at $7. I will keep it and wait for more inflation.
2nd_ave,
Congratulations on your timing, worked like a charm.
from Jim Iuorio ( http://twitter.com/#!/jiuorio )-
ReplyDeleteCoordinated rate cut? Don't u think that's some info I'd like to know? I like rate cuts? U invited china? I thought china gave u the creeps
Lucky is the three-legged dog blind in one eye, can't hear, missing an ear.
ReplyDeleteJapan Nuclear Reactor Incident -- 2:49 PM A sobering read: TEPCO (TKECF.PK) now says the Fukushima disaster was closer o an uncontrollable catastrophic meltdown than its previous versions of events. In an overdue stipulation, the firm says nuclear rods in reactor #1 at the plant likely melted down completely, spilling over and eating through 75% of a concrete base that served as the last containment between the radioactive core and the environment.
ReplyDeleteKyle- Do you know the commercial that tweet is referring too?
ReplyDeleteMark - ATT Commercial - Taco Party Outside Bill's Office isn't it???? Funny as Hell...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EoMkJ87uMBU
ReplyDeleteYeah, I know it. Very funny ;))
ReplyDeleteTEPCO - Yeah, Duh! It all starts with embracing a dedicated industrial safety program managed and run by trained professionals who have the authority to make decisions.
ReplyDeleteIf you don't have such a program, you're headed for trouble.
Anyone have trading volume info for today? Above or below average?
ReplyDelete2nd - Here's some info, but not volume...
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/freecharts/marketsummary.html
2nd_ave -- let me join Igor in congratulating you on excellent timing of recent trades: selling at the top of the first leg up (S&P $1280) and then re-entering at the bottom of the pullback (S&P $1160). I admit, I was skeptical about you not entering after the market quickly dropped to 1220, and when it bounced back up to 1240, I thought you had missed the bottom. But I guess the strategy of selling the hyperexcitement and re-entering at hypergloom is really a low risk one, and most of the time hypergloom happens at lower prices than the most recent hyperexcitement...
ReplyDeleteI am on Maui right now, since Thursday last week. Checking the market only during breakfast, before heading out to the beaches with my family (the beaches are amazing in the Wailea area -- perfect sand intermixed with patches of live coral reefs, teeming with fish and other marine life -- saw an octopus and two large turtles today). And then checking back again when we return from the beach to have lunch and organize afternoon naps for children.
ReplyDeleteWhen I saw Mark entering AUMN on Friday, I knew that it was THE bottom. Thank you, Mark, for "marking" it! :)
ReplyDelete17% in a few days is a great return, and many of us were happy with such returns we made on TCK, before it proceeded to a 1000% return...
TZA - At least my TZA stink bid @ $27 wasn't hit... Looks like we managed to fill today's gap up, too.
ReplyDeleteMight not get that $3 on BAC after all, no biggie, as I'm certainly not hoping or wishing for that to happen anyway... ;)
FROM IBD
ReplyDeleteVolume rose 17% on the NYSE and 26% on the Nasdaq, according to preliminary data.
That is not a huge increase in volume considering the magnitude of the move, But I believe the nasdaq had the largest volume all month.
Great stats to keep today in perspective. See the dates on the biggest point moves in history and ignore the homeless person begging for money on top of the page.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_daily_changes_in_the_Dow_Jones_Industrial_Average
The giveaway that the recent pullback in S&P was just a pullback in the middle of a longer term uptrend was that HAO kept making higher lows since October 4. If the smart money wasn't sure that Europe's problems will be adequately solved, then the high-risk Chinese small caps would not be trending up...
ReplyDeleteAs it is right now, we got a nice double bottom in GDXJ and a nice sequence of higher lows in both SLV and HAO.
When GDXJ rises to a new post-October 4 high (probably in the next couple of weeks), AUMN should be above $10...
I got 3 different Chase CC offers in the mail today. I already have 1.
ReplyDeleteFRO - Oh boy, I wonder if anyone in this one has any profits tonight?
ReplyDeleteOkay, what did global central banks actually do today, anyway? It looks like this plan provides liquidity:
ReplyDeleteFED Announced:
"These swap lines are being implemented as a contingency measure, so that central banks can offer liquidity in foreign currencies if market conditions warrant such actions. These lines provide the Federal Reserve with the same ability to provide foreign currency, should the need arise, as foreign central banks currently have through the existing dollar swap lines with the Federal Reserve to provide dollar liquidity in their jurisdictions...."
Observation:
"There has not been a decision to activate the foreign currency liquidity facilities. If the Federal Reserve were to decide to offer liquidity in foreign currencies to U.S. financial institutions, the details of the operations would be determined at that time in light of the prevailing circumstances.
If the Fed decides to open a new Term Auction Facility, this time for extending euro-denominated loans to U.S. banks, it will once again find itself needing to distinguish between the problems of solvency and liquidity. No action by a central bank can solve the problem of a debt that's not going to be repaid. But central banks can help avoid the added economic damage that is caused when markets for all loans, good or bad, get disrupted by the uncertainty. In the fall of 2008, the Fed successfully figured out how to navigate that fine line. Let's hope they have the wisdom to do so this time as well."
CP- Thanks for that last link. I get that.
ReplyDeleteThanks, Igor and David.
ReplyDeleteSo what's next? Do institutions start to jump in, now that we've cleared several resistance levels?
RB- You read my mind. I was going to suggest that Mark post his photo above the blog and start panhandling- it will enhance our professional image and lend credibility to the site.
ReplyDelete"Do institutions start to jump in, now that we've cleared several resistance levels?"
ReplyDeleteI think all depends on which way the dollar goes, a close over 80 will indicate further upside rally, but if the dollar continues downward, 80 is the target.
I think a lower Yen would be good news, as well.
This chart needs to keep moving down towards 400:
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GOLD:$COPPER&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p99295968853&a=217994610&r=7 736
This is a dynamic chart, so you can refresh the link...
2nd - I agree, excellent timing and you are probably more relaxed than the rest of us I bet too.
ReplyDeleteNow a tale of woe
I posted the note on China while eating my Quaker Oatmeal Squares with a hint of brown sugar. Normally I eat breakfast at work but today I was a little ahead of schedule so decided to ck on Mr. Market while eating at home.
Very interesting, why would China cut? Oh well, off to work I go. I get in to the office where we have CNBC on all the time on one of our plasma screens. Ahhhh, all the central banks are flooding the system in a coordinated effort. The market is gonna rocket. Dow +230? no way, we'e going a lot higher.
So what did I do, I bot 100 shares of my favorite stock, premarket. Market opens, things are looking good, my stock starts to fall. Oh well, it does have a lot of volatility. at my stock my 2.50, i buy 3 jan calls to boot.
What was it you ask? on a dow +490 day? CF - finished the day at $139.89, down $3.96. I bot premarket around 147.50 and I'll have a stop in place for it should it drop further.
Gartman talked about CF on the Fast Money web extra. He said its down because farmers are getting better at utilizing their fertilizer and don't need as much. While that may be true, I don't think thats why CF dropped today. Corn, POT, MOS, AGU, and DBA were all up. DBA wasn't up much but it was still green. My buddy and I have 2 theories. 1) something bad and very CF specific is going on that we don't know about yet OR 2) some fund was long CF, short the general market and had to sell CF to cover the shorts.
So either way, CF can still drop tomorrow under both scenarios. My plan is to set stops on the stock that I will also use as a trigger to sell half my CF calls and then let the other half ride.
Mark, I'm not so sure that explanation was complete, I see where the FED made dollars available to euro banks, I guess this means now they don't have to buy them in the market and drive the dollar up...?
ReplyDeletePort- Oh man, that sucks bro. Happens to me all the time. I have a rule now, when making simply a directional trade it's ETF based and usually SSO.
ReplyDelete"I think all depends on which way the dollar goes, a close over 80 will indicate further upside rally, but if the dollar continues downward, 80 is the target."
ReplyDeleteCrap, that made no sense at all!
Dollar must keep moving down, downside target is 70. A close over 80 would be dollar bullish.
Seems CF specific to me.
ReplyDeleteCP- Yikes, I was just tying to figure out WTF you were trying to say!! :))..70 it seems to be.
ReplyDeleteArticle in the guardian talking about the central bank action.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/nov/30/world-central-banks-act-credit-crunch
Two things stick out to me in the article
1. Jeremy Cook, chief economist at foreign exchange company World First, suggested that central bankers had tired of European leaders' failure to fix the euro crisis.
"Cutting swap costs is the equivalent of interest rate cuts," Cook explained. "This may have been a signal that the money markets were a short shove away from complete collapse."
2. The Bank of England joined the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the ECB, the Bank of Canada and the Swiss National Bank in taking the measures.
ReplyDeleteAND
Separately, the ECB, which has come under intense pressure in recent weeks over its role in the deteriorating eurozone crisis, said it would now be able to provide liquidity to struggling banks in yen, sterling, Swiss francs and Canadian dollars if necessary.
Maybe we should invite Barry on DT. I think he would fit right in.
ReplyDeleteBarry Ritholtz
"At times, I have described Good News as Bad — meaning that is could encourage the Fed withdrawing its accommodation, raising rates, pressuring margins, earnings and equity prices.
Today’s coordinated central bank intervention is the opposite: A Euro-zone bank on the verge of collapse prompted this extraordinary action.
So this a case where the news is so Bad it becomes Good for stocks: The financial system is so (choose 1 or more) vulnerable / compromised / inter-related / fragile that it required the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, and the Swiss National Bank to coordinate a joint liquidity event. So Bad News (near collapse) becomes Good News (equity rally).
The volume was so-so, except for the end of month/quarter buy on close surge; Monday’s volume was light as well. So this runs to 1250, maybe even 1300. Does it have legs? Will the surge suck the traders in (or trade the suckers in?)
Of course, these actions reflect the underlying weakness, and adds to the eventual bill to be paid (interest and penalties continue to accrue).
But tonight, we drink !"
Now in item 2 above, there is no mention of China but I think this was a coordinated move and China is part of it. The next thing that I find interesting is I think it's still our Fed doing most of the lending out of that group which to me means weaker dollar.
ReplyDeleteOne comment on minyanville was that a bank was going under but I'm betting it was Italy going under. Of course that would probably drive a bank or two under as well.
ReplyDeleteMark, ur right about that. Next time I'll just buy a double long. I already had 500 SSO which went green for the first time today. I should have just bot more of those or how about OIH? I think XLF and OIH were the big ETF winners today.
ReplyDeleteI'm in the camp of...Holly shit, we better do something, and ECB? Yeah, you, get your shit together.
ReplyDeletetoo many peeps concerned with the day to day action. fact is the us economy continues to grow, stocks are historically on the cheap side, and the majority are pessimistic. makes for a good bull.
ReplyDeleteTOF- Your right, and I'm stuck on the side lines with more cash than I could spend in 10 years.
ReplyDeleteI might not understand the Cent bank action, but didn't it just treat the symptoms and not the disease. The sovereign bonds are not backstopped in anyway with this action right? The run up today is more in anticipation of further interventions. I assume the so called euro bond to backstop all the other shit paper is the desired outcome. Are they closer to doing this now. Or maybe todays cent bank action was in anticipation of an "Orderly default" Which I don't think will be as well received by the market.
ReplyDeleteThink your right also RB...Something along those lines. We're trading gap to gap right now. I honestly don't know if this will ever change. Times/technology are different now. I've said it/asked before, if some idiot like me can short/long 3X though an ETF which has the effect of a 3M bet during breakfast, how the fuck does that square?
ReplyDeleteI'm in the camp of just do something too, this "dollar waiting on a dime" stuff isn't helping anyone. Unwind all these arb trades and complex financial engineering rube goldberg derivatives so the rest of us can get down to the business of doing business. You need to borrow a few billion bucks to settle out your trades, then you've got 'em.
ReplyDeleteHey, am I finally gonna get a chance to sell those 10 shares of YHOO for what I paid for them?
ReplyDeleteMark - Cash? Why not buy the new car that the wife wants?
ReplyDeleteYes Mark your with the times. leverage up. One of the proposed fixes for the euro debt crisis that actually rallied the market close to 400 points just a little while ago was the 1.2 trillion bailout. YEt it really wasn't 1.2 trillion, but 250 billion that was going to to be leveraged up 5X. Trouble was no one wanted to be the broker.
ReplyDeletetest
ReplyDeleteWhat do you know,I have been block out from this site since mid October. If this works my next post will be article or link on Robear's symptom vs diease comment.
ReplyDeleteYes, today’s action is an attempt to throw liquidity at a solvency problem, but failing to stem the rise in OIS RATES COULD HAVE CREATED A MELTDOWN. If the slide in all assets continues, the cost of intervention would rise exponentially. The FINANCIAL AUTHORITIES cannot afford for the speculative forces to get the traction of momentum at this time on the calendar.
ReplyDeletefull article
http://yrah53.wordpress.com/2011/11/30/play/
Blogger causes me to have to sign in everytime I try to post. Too much of a hassle for.
ReplyDeleteHappy Trails all.
We don't have to sign in each time, but I did have to make my own page (top right corner) then sign in one a week b/c I don't have any other recognizable blogosphere/social media presence.
ReplyDeleteNot sure what an OIS is, but I do know what a TLA is...
Telestar, do you have google account? I use this and it almost never asks me to sign in.
ReplyDeleteI thin the rally continues - maybe we have a small pullback after such a run, but I think the markets are higher a couple of months from now.
ReplyDelete1. Not many people believe in this rally.
2. New rally's almost always start on low volume and the volume grows as people engage
3. Valuations are still exceptionally cheap. US stocks could rise 20% and just be at market average P/E or over 40% to get back to average P/E relative to current low interest rates.
4. The Euro problem is being worked and a solution will be found. Doesn't really matter much what the solution is, just that the uncertainty ends.
5. Seasonality, underinvested funds, performance anxiety, etc.
6. Companies are being run well. Margins are being protected and companies are not taking on undue risks.
7. The U.S. economy is getting better as per economic reports (also, Canadian economy is doing well) and China is easing to increase growth - these 2 will overcome European weakness and pull the world economy forward.
I'm supposing equities will remain correlated with PM's being these are money and/or commodities, thus perhaps these comments are applicable to some extent:
ReplyDeleteTrader Dan Norcini's comments:
"Today's actions by the Fed, in concert with 5 other Central Banks, plus the move by China to lower bank reserve requirements 50 basis points, the first time they have done so in three years, has provided today's fireworks across the commodity and equity marks. It is RISK ON time once again for the hedgies.
I mentioned in my analysis of the COT report yesterday, that the metals needed some sort of fundamental spark to break them out of their respective trading ranges. Perhaps we have that, at least for today, in the form of easing of liquidity concerns. That is unclear to me at this point since this really does not do anything to address the structural issues leading up to the sovereign debt issues. It is simply keeping a liquidity crisis from becoming a full-blown insolvency crisis.
This might explain why after the initial blast higher in the markets on the euphoria around the Central Bank actions, that the markets have not been able to continue adding to their early session gains. Traders are maybe having second thoughts about all this. I know I sure am. While it will temporarily help ease lending concerns, it still does not address the sinking value of all that sovereign debt on the books of the big European banks, nor of that on the books of some US banks. It seems to me we are going to have to see a very clear, unambiguous signal that Germany is going to go along with a large role for the ECB and maybe even a Eurobond market before traders will get more aggressive to the upside.
Regardless, silver has been able to capture its first line of technical chart resistance centered near the $32.50 level. This is its first visit back to this level in a week's time. That has served to reinforce the support level that formed just below the $31 level. For this market to now get anything going to the upside, it is going to have to first convincingly clear $33.50 and then exceed $35. Only then will it have a shot at anything more than a return to the top of its recent trading range."
\x07\x07http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com
More suppositions:
ReplyDeleteThe FED's move yesterday sounds almost like a huge currency peg...
Currency stability? - So now evaluations won't be a phenomenon so dependent on currency fluctuation?
Considering the FED was forced to take a this measure (is there any historical precedent?), will the market interpret the circumstances as a warning sign?
WMB - Was that a breakout to new high yesterday, or a double top?
ReplyDeleteCF was a no brainer this morning...That explains, of course, why I'm not in it.
ReplyDeleteCF - Yep, making up for lost time. ;)
ReplyDeleteI sold most of my AUMN yesterday at 7.12...Today's high.
ReplyDeleteThese may not be the only instances, but may serve as examples of what can happen:
ReplyDelete9/18/2008 - Federal Reserve and other central banks announce further measures to address elevated pressures in funding markets
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20080918a.htm
5/11/2010 - Federal Reserve releases agreements with foreign central banks to reestablish temporary dollar swap facilities
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20100510a.htm
11/30/2011 - Coordinated central bank action to address pressures in global money markets
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20111130a.htm
CSTR- Well, that didn't last long.
ReplyDeleteI think F would sell off if they announced sales up 500% YOY.
ReplyDeleteFTWR is a .02 stock. Crazy.
ReplyDeleteWNR - 1:09 PM Western Refining (WNR +7%) pops after announcing it's selling its idled Yorktown, Virginia refinery, plus an underutilized segment of its crude oil pipeline in southeast New Mexico, to subsidiaries of Plains All American Pipeline (PAA +1.4%) for $220M.
ReplyDeleteYorktown refinery idle? Hmm, didn't know that...
ReplyDeleteDo you guys ever get this stuff?
ReplyDelete"METALS-Copper falls after China, euro zone factory data (Susan Thomas, Reuters, 12/1/2011)"
http://af.reuters.com/article/metalsNews/idAFL5E7N12EP20111201
Gold-to-silver (Au:Ag) ratio of 52.8 which is close to the center of a declining channel that we've been in since Sept. 23, with a high of 57.0 on Sep. 26 and a low of 49.5 Oct. 28.
ReplyDeleteI don't really see anything so interesting about the gold:silver ratio in this chart, aside from it being a flag formation:
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GOLD:$SILVER&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p99295968853&a=217994610&r=7 736
F - Agreed, it's gonna sell off no matter if they ship one, or a billion cars.
ReplyDeleteEverything's gonna sell off, and keep on selling to infinity until there's nothing remaining to sell. Then it'll sell even more, just to prove it still can, until finally, another wave of selling begins.
After all, isn't it obvious that any P/E greater than unity is way overpriced?
SCCO - Looks to me like an inverse H&S with a target of $42... The upside gaps make it look scary though...
ReplyDeleteT3d - Sorry about the delayed post. I just checked my email...
ReplyDeleteKyle, could you please post this at Trading Topics.
Hello gang, since mid October Google says “Your current account does not have access to view this page. I have not found a work around. I had responded to TOF on XWES and CP on Thorium, but it did not go through. I’m just able to view and read.
That said I really do not have that much to say anyhow. When you guys were writing about all the weird stuff happening to you, the same was happening to me too. During the third week of OCT, I had two deaths in our family within 5 days of each other, one being my Father.
The great thing about life is that for every death there is a birth. TOF, congratulations to you and your wife on the birth or your son. Life will never be quite the same again.
Periodically I try to post and very occasionally it goes through as today did once. Good luck to everyone and Happy Holidays if my transmission is broke.
T3D, Grounds control to Major Tom’s, I think there’s something wrong.
Kyle, thanks in advance
Speaking about the equities being cheap now: I just got around to reading what Hussman wrote last Sunday. Here is an excerpt from it:
ReplyDelete****
Finally, the Flow of Funds data include two handy series, one representing the total net worth of nonfinancial companies, and the second representing the market value of the equities (stocks) of those companies. Intuitively, if those calculations are any good, one would expect the ratio of equity market value to total net worth to be a reasonable valuation indicator.
In fact, that's just what we see. Though the Flow of Funds data isn't as useful as one would like in practice (since it is only reported quarterly with a lag), it turns out that a low ratio of equity market value to total net worth is a very good indicator of high subsequent total returns for the S&P 500 over the following 10-year period. In contrast, a high ratio of equity market value to total net worth is predictably followed by weak 10-year total returns for the S&P 500.
Let's call this the price-to-net-worth ratio. As of the latest data, the market value of the equities ($15.21 trillion) for non-financial companies was nearly equal to the total net worth of those companies ($15.05 trillion) for a price-to-net-worth ratio of about 1.01. Note that this is NOT fair value - rather, the historical median and average of the price-to-net-worth ratio is just 0.75. The present level of about 1.0 has historically corresponded to a subsequent 10-year S&P 500 total return averaging only about 5% annually, which is fairly close to the estimate we get from a variety of other historically reliable methods, though the recent decline has improved our expectations a bit.
*****
He then gives a chart that shows a very good correlation between the above predicted 10-year return on S&P and the actually observed return. The recent sharp rally in S&P pushes the predicted 10-year return back below 5%, and it has been that low ONLY for a few years during late 90's. So a straight "buy-and-hold" of broad equity indices is a pretty bad investment strategy to follow for the next 10 years. However, if one were to modify it using the "2nd_ave method" of selling during exuberance and reloading during panics, then one can get a much better 10-year return, as 2nd_ave has recently demonstrated.
Equities may be cheap but I am waiting for them to be much cheaper. Markets are very vulnerable now. Financial collapse is a possibility. Cash is king, IMHO.
ReplyDelete"collapse is a possibility"
ReplyDeleteWell, you're not the only one who feels that way, Barnhardt is at it again with the warnings:
http://www.financialsense.com/financial-sense-newshour/guest-expert/2011/12/01/ann-barnhardt/entire-futures-options-market-destroyed-by-mf-global-collapse
evening
ReplyDeleteno trades today. I was happy to see CF go up. I need another $10 rally by monday or tuesday to breakeven on my 7 dec 150 calls. I see no hope for my 2 dec170's so that will be a loss.
I liked the market action today. I guess AAPL helped the nasdaq and that would be my fav group to see up today.
One of the items I subscribe to is Jon Markhams Strategic Advantage. He pointed out that most of the rallies like we had yesterday have occurred in bear markets. I'd love to be able to confirm this someplace else. That does give me a little pause but I'm also thinking, absent any bad news, we should see an up day tomorrow.
From my readings on Minyanville, Mad Hedge Fund, you guys and Jon Markham (or maybe its John), there seems to be a fairly even split between bear and bull sentiment. That's mostly from the post. I'm not keeping count to see if a bull or bear is making several post.
ReplyDeleteBy the way, Minyanville's Buzz and Banter is available free from both Etrade and TD Ameritrade now. This is another one of those things where it takes a while to figure out which writer gives you the best advice.
Mad is bullish for a Christmas rally. it sounds like Markham is too and they both still seem to say down next year.
I like David's post about Hussman above. That's good stuff to remember. I have a hard time doing that too.
I still have my Jan 124 SPY calls from my strangle that I opened on Nov 7th. I'm up on the strangle about $700 I think. If we get a big up day tomorrow I'll start selling some of it.
ReplyDeleteI don't have a plan if we have a down day.
T3D, I can't log in to Trading Topic from internet explorere. I have to use my apple laptop or Firefox.
ReplyDeleteWho in the hell still uses explorer??
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeletewell cool, i posted a link to my new car buying guide but it was in Word and I didn't like the way you had to access it so I deleted it.
ReplyDeletekyle so sorry to hear about your father. losing a parent is very tough.
ReplyDeleteHow can you delete? I would like to delete 90% of the stupid shit I write.
ReplyDeleteWow I figured it out. The trashcan. I am going to sound a whole bunch smarter when I can edit my drunk topics. :). Little Monkey shine tonight. 8.9% alc content in a real smooth dark beer. Taste like a 4.5 % beer. I don't have to tell the DT community the danger that can cause.
ReplyDeleteTeam I think Kyle was posting for T3d.
ReplyDeleteT3D My deepest condolences.
Yes, I was posting for T3d. He sent the email Nov 29th, but I didn't check until last night. Sorry again for your loss.
ReplyDeleteVery, very few people believe in this rally, which is one of the reason it should have legs:
ReplyDeleteNEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Bullish sentiment fell among financial advisers surveyed in the weekly Investors' Intelligence poll from last Friday.
The percentage of financial advisers who are bullish on the market fell to 44.2% from 47.4%, while bearish sentiment fell to 30.5% from 32.6%.
The percentage of financial advisers expecting a market correction rose to 25.3% from 20.0%.
Also, take a look at the attached chart:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2011/12/1/november-auto-sales-hit-two-year-high.html
There is a lot of upside in the economy to still come. Not only are car sales at 3 million under the average for 2000 - 2008, you've also got a deficit of probably 15 - 20 million cars to make up. This will drive a lot of economic growth.
Another good showing by US politicians last night on the payroll tax cuts.
ReplyDeleteEveryone know the party positions now - would it not make sense to get together and decide how to pass the bill in private instead of going through these dumb votes all the time.
Now Obama will probably be out today slamming the republicans for not helping the average American" and the republicans will be saying "Obama wants to raise taxes in a recession" and blah, blah blah.
Speaking of employment, I thin the employment companies are good here. I own CDI - it pays a 4% dividend and should do well as employment grows and companies start hiring temps and then full-time employees.
This is from the CC site. I've received 2 of these e-mails w/in the past couple of days... WARNING of email SCAM...
ReplyDeleteFBI warned of a new spear-phishing campaign
Submitted by mayhem991 (172 comments) on Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:37 #101193
The Federal Bureau of Investigation has warned of an elaborate spear-phishing campaign that wires money out of victims' accounts under the cover of a distributed denial-of-service attack against the bank.
The new spear-phishing campaign masquerades as emails from the National Automated Clearing House Assocation (NACHA) and downloads a variant of the Zeus banking Trojan onto the victim's computer, the FBI Denver Cyber Squad said in its warning issued Nov. 23.
The malware steals the user's online banking credentials and launches a DDoS attack on the financial institution to hide the fact that it is also transferring money out of user accounts. The DDoS attacks may also make it difficult for the financial institution to stop or reverse the transfers even if they are detected in time.
The email informs the recipient that there was a problem with a transaction at their bank and it was not processed. By clicking on the link in the email, the recipient is directed to a Website that downloads the Zeus variant called "Gameover" to the recipient’s computer, the FBI warned. Gameover is capable of keylogging to steal banking credentials as well as defeating several forms of two-factor authentication mechanisms the banks may be employing.
The new spear-phishing campaign involves "personal and business bank accounts, financial institutions, money mules and jewelry stores," according to the warning.
There is more detail in the CC post
"informs recipient of a problem with a transaction at their bank"
ReplyDeleteYeah sure, I'd be clicking that link in a split second... Almost as good as the ones I get that claim UPS/FDX tried but failed to deliver a package, contains no info pertinent to any package such as address of sender and recipient, and I should click on this link...
TZA - Gettin close to $27 here, can she do it?
ReplyDeleteThanks Kyle.
ReplyDeleteRBY?
ReplyDeleteThe 2 emails I received claimed that a 'direct deposit transaction failed'. Just deleted them.
ReplyDelete'direct deposit transaction failed'
ReplyDeleteB/C the target account is no doubt, full. ;)
uh oh....P&F charts are bullish on the Dow now, targeting 13,800. Time to go short?
ReplyDeleteNew post.
ReplyDelete