When I'm an old guy, sometime around 2040, I plan to dress and act like Joe Cocker. Awesome wardrobe. Between now and then lie many years of peak earnings.
I'm looking at the DOW chart using ticker INDU.X and if I'm reading this right, this last week only had a range of 291 points. The last time I see we had a hi/low range that tight was the week of July 7th. It feels like we moved a 1000 points.
In looking at prior annual returns for the s&p over the years typically the third year after a big down year you see a negative year...I wouldn't be shocked to see used at 1170 if we fit that pattern.
BTW, the issue isn't Linear System Theory or solving those issues of moving pole-zero configurations around; it's these Jump Discontinuities that exist in the market; it's a 'Change Detection' Problem...
Jump Discontinuities - Good point, a change detection problem. I was thinking in terms of attempting to describe a disturbance response, as in a step function, and then see if there are any patterns or series of patterns.
Maybe someday I'll finally get serious about putting a pencil on it, although I realize the thought isn't a unique one, nor would be the attempt. It's this nagging feeling I get leading me to believe what I'm witnessing is contrived as thus I might be able to work out an approximate expression, or set of expressions.
Embrace the circumstances.
ReplyDeleteLa essence de systemic analysis, prior to the advent of sub-molecular particulate physics (propellerhead sciences):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laplace_transform
Evening,
ReplyDeleteno trades for me on Friday.
I'm looking at the DOW chart using ticker INDU.X and if I'm reading this right, this last week only had a range of 291 points. The last time I see we had a hi/low range that tight was the week of July 7th. It feels like we moved a 1000 points.
I'm looking for a chart pattern, I got nothin.
ReplyDeleteIn looking at prior annual returns for the s&p over the years typically the third year after a big down year you see a negative year...I wouldn't be shocked to see used at 1170 if we fit that pattern.
ReplyDeleteI'm looking at the time stamp of TOF's last post. WTF are you doing awake at 2:00am?
ReplyDeleteMark -- that's 2am Pacific Time. Isn't TOF on Eastern time?
ReplyDeleteNo Tof is getting home from the PB Bar and Grill. They close at Two. What no late night tacos? A SD tradition.
ReplyDeleteI think the baby woke him up at 2 am.
ReplyDeleteDing ding ding...2nd is the winner. Although 3 years ago it would've been rb. Nice call by the way rb. How the hell do u know the pb bars?
ReplyDeleteCome on guys...I knew it was the kid. Still doesn't answer why HE was up.
ReplyDeleteCP - How was the Cognac???
ReplyDeleteBTW, the issue isn't Linear System Theory or solving those issues of moving pole-zero configurations around; it's these Jump Discontinuities that exist in the market; it's a 'Change Detection' Problem...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variable_structure_system
new post
ReplyDeleteKyle - Yes, the Cognac...
ReplyDeleteJump Discontinuities - Good point, a change detection problem. I was thinking in terms of attempting to describe a disturbance response, as in a step function, and then see if there are any patterns or series of patterns.
Maybe someday I'll finally get serious about putting a pencil on it, although I realize the thought isn't a unique one, nor would be the attempt. It's this nagging feeling I get leading me to believe what I'm witnessing is contrived as thus I might be able to work out an approximate expression, or set of expressions.