Successful trading?
I think it requires (a) an intimate connection to one's emotions- being in 'sync' with either fear or exuberance, (b) waiting for extremes of either, followed by (c) the ability to divorce one's actions from those same emotions.
Re (c) above, I don't believe it necessarily entails acting contrary to impulse. After all, many of us have cultivated the contrarian instinct to the point where the initial impulse is correct.
So (d) might reasonably read 'act immediately either on impulse, or contrary to impulse, depending on the situation.'
Here's food for thought from Todd Harrison:
http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/todd-harrison-todd-harrison-minyanville-todd/12/20/2011/id/38467
Let me add to the above persistence. Without it, you'll end up drinking alone day after day.
ReplyDeleteWell OK, so the consequences sound like my daily ritual. Only I drink to celebrate, not to drown.
That's a great article you posted 2nd. In my mind it's just too much to fret about. Short term trading is a beotch.
ReplyDeleteSpeaking of trading, there's just so much out there that I think looks good right now:
CSTR
TZOO
BTU
even SPF, NOK
ORCL is down 10% after hours. Why?
ReplyDelete"Oracle earned $2.2 billion, or 43 cents per share, in its fiscal second quarter. That was a 17 percent increase from net income of $1.9 billion, or 37 cents per share at the same time last year.
If not for certain items, Oracle said it would have earned 54 cents per share. That figure fell below the average estimate of 57 cents per share among analysts polled by FactSet."
So ORCL's business basically generated 54 cents per share of net income, up 46% from what it earned last year in the same quarter, and its shares after hours are 20% BELOW where they were last December??? That's TOTALLY screwed up! 2nd_ave is totally right opening a position in ORCL after hours...
David, you need to stop doing that, man! I just sold the ORCL position at 26.47. Just a trade.
ReplyDeleteOK, here is a correction: EVERYONE with some spare cash on the side should be opening a long-term position in ORCL after hours today...
ReplyDeleteok I'm assuming David didn't see 2nd's post.
ReplyDeleteNOK > 50% of mkt cap in cash.
Some MITK info:
ReplyDelete1.) http://actonfs.com/blog/?p=3276
2.) http://www.americanbanker.com/issues/176_240/BECU-actionable-mobile-alerts-1044832-1.html?ET=americanbanker_ab:e9073:2250222a:&st=email
3.) http://www.prweb.com/releases/2011/12/prweb9051408.htm
4.) UFCU introduces Mobile deposit: https://www.ufcu.org/ (Total Assets - $1,439,579,110 as of October 31, 2011;
Member/Owners - 139,587 as of October 31, 2011)
TZA @ 27.07.
ReplyDeletePayroll taxbreak extension rejected?
ReplyDeleteNOK - 50% of cap in cash, dividend 11.9%
Bizzaro world, I guess.
CP - no way that divy is maintained. But still...
ReplyDeleteRIMM news.
ReplyDeleteNKE/ORCL- Apparently sneakers out weight routers.
ReplyDeleteQuestion for the group:
ReplyDeleteThe Costco dressers arrived and seem fine, except for one detail. A long screw used to bolt the mirror to one dresser protrudes by maybe 1/16 inch, creating a 'sharp stick' hazard. Is there a tool that can be used to trim the screw without damaging the wood, creating a flat surface which can then be puttied over?
No, it wasn't overlooked by an inspector. My older son bolted the mirror- however, we were missing two screws + the opening bored by the builders was apparently the incorrect length.
ReplyDelete2nd- The easiest thing to do is back it out and snip off the length you want. It will easily thread back in without the tip.
ReplyDelete$5 please.
Wow, just like every other client. As soon as $'s come into play the line goes dead.
ReplyDeleteevening gents,
ReplyDeletedumbass santa got a little behind this year but i'm happy to say we're making great progress
i read Todd's article earlier, I like that guy
not doing much, i think friday i doubled up on my sso, so i now have 600 shares at avg 43.63, for some reason, i thought i had my stop in place but i had put it in as GOOD FOR THE DAY on friday and it expired, i would have been stopped out around 42.70 ish yesterday and a very unhappy camper today, another lucky moment.
punted my Feb SPY 124 puts today so I'm left with the calls, down a total of $2400 on this trade which is a lot. The loss just accelerated between Thur and yesterday and didn't gain any ground today either. At one point this trade was up $1300 which would have been a good return. I really though we would have been much higher on the SPY at this point. Come on santa rally.
bot my token long term position in MITK, 500 shares at $7.58, let me know when to sell. I have a stop loss set at $0.
ReplyDeleteon friday bot 4 JAN 155 GLD calls at $4.05, I NOW have a GTC stop in at $4.05. This one could easily swing down and trigger my stop.
today bot 3 CF feb 135 calls for $10.90. Now this is why I like posting here, makes me think more about "what if's". I don't want to put a stop on this one due to the volatility and the sometimes wide bid/ask spreads on the options. I think with CF, I just have to see what CF and the market are doing at the end of the day and make a decision and stick to it. For now I'm putting out an order to sell 2 at $14.70 which would be about $143.50 on the stock and then I'd let the last option swing around.
now what to do about T, which is still holding up and my other embarrassing trade (after my recent CF cluster) for the year TBT.
T - I'm waiting to see if the rally has legs which I think it does and then I'll sell a 2 or 4 month out in the money call option.
TBT - I'm too embarrassed to post this loss but just know that it's there and it won't get much better. I'm HOPIN for more rally which will give TBT a little boost but this is such a big looser at this point, I just need to get out. I think it will be a great trade either late 2012 or sometime in 2013.
Jon Markman did a favorable write up on EPM, you guys should take a look. Mark, that's one to ask MOG about.
i also subscribed to Landry's free newsletter, I din't know he did a free hour long webinar?
ReplyDeleteThe Jan 7.50 MITK puts are bid at $.75. TOS shows the implied volatility at 85%
ReplyDeletePort, The Landry webinar is Thursday 10:00 AM - 11:00 AM CST. If you miss it it costs the price of a couple of latte's to download it from his web site. Sometimes he has them in the evening.
ReplyDeleteThe market in a minute is pretty good and the webinar is very good and covers his methodology and you can ask questions about trading and stocks you are interested in.
I think he also sends out a free summary each morning via e-mail that contains the Market in a minute.
If you like his methodology then you will like all the info. He definitely sticks to his method.
if ur in mitk just keep in mind how volatile it is. its not for the faint of heart.
ReplyDelete"The Jan 7.50 MITK puts are bid at $.75."
ReplyDelete2nd_ave, Igor -- why don't you guys write such puts on MITK? You will either have some assigned to you at $6.75 -- a better entry than any of the current MITK holders on this blog has, or you will earn 10% in one month. That's a pretty low risk trade, IMO, with some decent return for those who like to play it safe...
I just looked at the S&P futures since August and it sure looks like we ARE going to 1300 this time...
ReplyDeleteUnless, of course, nobody comes to ECB tomorrow for cash and we get a 500 point down day on the DOW. If we go up tomorrow, then we SURELY are going to 1300 soon.
ReplyDeletePort- I forgot to ask about EPM. I will.
ReplyDeleteThere was some easy money to be made in OPEN this morning.
ReplyDeleteDEER - Wow, they pay a dividend...
ReplyDeleteAUMN - That was quite a day yesterday, I shoulda bought that sub $5.50 low. That's what I get for trying to be disciplined.
ReplyDeleteCan imagine we don't close green. Oil up VIX down. Should be enough.
ReplyDeleteWhat's up with CSTR?
Mark- I should have clarified> We did try to remove the screw, but because of the way the builders bored the opening (over-sized), the screw splintered the opening going in, and we're unable to extract it. So the only option is snipping off the end without extraction. We just don't want to damage the wood. I was thinking of taping around it prior to snipping. Any suggestions as the ultimate tool for cautious snipping?
ReplyDeleteTZA- I wish I could say I sold it at 27.95. I didn't> I got up early, watched the DJIA spike +132, and offed the position at 26.61 premarket. Panic sell, basically. WTF.
ReplyDelete"Panic sell, basically. WTF."
ReplyDeleteWelcome to everyone else's world 2nd. You can only be superhuman for so long.
TZA is my kryptonite, bro.
ReplyDeleteInteresting level for VMW.
ReplyDelete2nd- Use end nippers then. You won't get if flush, but close. Then use a nail set to drive it behind the surface of the wood. Kinda a tough task. GL.
ReplyDeleteMy Toyota blew up again yesterday. Hope I don't have to get a new one. Latter ladies.
ReplyDelete2nd - A rotary Dremel tool could be used to chew off the tip of the screw once you've got it cut back close to flush? Harbor Freight carries cheap versions if the real McCoy is more than tolerable.
ReplyDeleteEvery home should have a Dremel tool. ;)
Bought some DELL in this morning's tech weakness from the Oracle miss.
ReplyDeleteIt is one of the cheaper tech stocks and they've got a huge buyback to support the price. They've moved away from the volume game towards bring more profitable, so should grow earnings.
Think it could get to $20 in the next year or two.
IBM - Ka-plunk!
ReplyDeleteBummer mark.
ReplyDeleteBoy MITK sure looks strong today. I think it's going to explode higher.
CALM - The incredible, edible egg.
ReplyDeleteToyota blew up? Roadside IED?
If u go back in time stocks like DELL/MSFT/INTC all had "technical breakdowns" in 1990...Could you imagine getting stopped out of those stocks in 1990 and then sitting and waiting for a pullback for the next 10 years?
ReplyDeleteI know everyone has their own time frame and what not, but sometimes it's really important to keep those three stocks in mind when you're in something that you think is a long term winner.
Now we just need to find those winners! What are the characteristics that they all tend to show? This guy seems to have a decent model for them:
Josh Hayes on Seeking Alpha
http://seekingalpha.com/article/312419-3-growth-stocks-set-for-a-santa-claus-rally
If u go back it time...you get this...
ReplyDeleteHistory doesn't rhyme, it repeats
Submitted by Craig (1974 comments) on Wed, 12/21/2011 - 12:14 #102529
"The budget should be balanced, the Treasury should be refilled, public debt should be reduced, the arrogance of officialdom should be tempered and controlled, and the assistance to foreign lands should be curtailed lest Rome become bankrupt. People must again learn to work, instead of living on public assistance." -Cicero, 55 BC.
Vad questioned the validity of this quote.
ReplyDeleteI lifted this from quote of the day at the Big Picture. So I checked it out.
The actual quote is: "The arrogance of officialdom should be tempered and controlled, and assistance to foreign hands should be curtailed, lest Rome fall."
I can still go along with Cicero, especially the first part. That would mitigate much of the last part.
Okay, apparently the quote is Taylor Caldwell's right wing leanings that found their way into modern conservative notions of history through her book "Pillar of Iron".
ReplyDeletehttp://www.tulliana.eu/documenti/Gazette%20IV%20Curiosa%20ENG.pdf
Craig - That's OK. The statement is accurate nonetheless. I have this image (from an old film-clip) of a barrel going over Niagara Falls w/ the US Flag on the side anyway....
ReplyDeleteGiven such a huge intake of money from ECB today, I think the market is all set to rally much higher. Just like in 2008, the liquidity offered by the Fed did not immediately move the markets -- it took a few months for that to happen. Similarly this time, the market can stall or even grind lower for a little while, but then a crazy rally will start and in six months the explanations of that rally will come down to cheap money from ECB. Cheap money ALWAYS moves markets. In fact, I think we are just having a technical pullback today and we will be above 1250 by the end of the week.
ReplyDeleteThe one fly in the ointment is that the TED spread rose today. However, it is still below Monday's level. When the TED spread drops below 55, I'll assume that it is now starting to trend down and the road is clear for stocks to surge up.
ReplyDeleteThat quote is interesting and all, but I'm really more concerned with how my investments do over the next few months.
ReplyDeleteI think the market has turned the corner here, at least the PM market did. The selling pressure is definitely off gold and silver, after their recent plunge. Thus, they should start trending up, taking GDXJ up with them. The huge amount of liquidity from ECB should help that a lot. So I just closed my GDXJ hedge (sold at $1.80 the 10 GDXJ puts I purchased last week at $2.50). I am ultra-long now and ready to rally!
ReplyDeleteAnother motivating reason for me to sell my GDXJ puts is that S&P made a higher low and a higher high since its bottom at 12:30 ET today. The "sell the news" pullback is over, and we are all set to rocket above 1250 by the end of the week.
ReplyDeleteThe fact that TLT is down more than 1% today, I think, is a big giveaway that the money will be flowing now from Treasuries into equities.
ReplyDeleteDELL...Interesting BB.
ReplyDeleteJB, you've played this one before. Any thought?
I think my purchase of GDXJ puts last Friday *was* that desperate action on my part that always marks THE bottom of a downtrend. I tend to be the last one to give up, and when I do, it means that no more sellers remain.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.phrases.org.uk/meanings/213750.html
ReplyDeleteIn case you ever wondered about the origin of the phrase "Katy bar the door"
TOF- Hummm...Thanks?
ReplyDeleteI'm putting my foot down. We have to do dinner before the end of Feb. No excuses.
ReplyDeleteMITK looking strong.
ReplyDeleteMark who are u trying to date?
All you guys!
ReplyDeleteGingrich Plummets in Polls as Voters Start Remembering Who He Is
ReplyDeleteDawning Awareness Threatens Campaign
DES MOINES (The Borowitz Report) – In a development that has imperiled his front-runner status in the Republican presidential race, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has plunged in the polls as voters have begun to remember who he is.
Mr. Gingrich had been surging in recent weeks, but according to pollster Davis Logsdon of the University of Minnesota’s Opinion Research institute, “That was before people's memories of who New Gingrich is started gradually kicking in.”
According to a new poll released today, Mr. Gingrich fared especially poorly among voters who agreed with the statement, “Wait a minute, that guy? He was an enormous dick.”
“Newt Gingrich has got to do something fast to keep people from remembering who he is,” pollster Logsdon said. “He might try growing a moustache or wearing an eye patch, but that might be too little, too late.”
On the ground in Iowa, Gingrich campaign strategists are working overtime to confront the challenge posed by voters remembering who he is, aides to the former House Speaker said today.
According to one campaign source, the Gingrich campaign has begun seeking the support of people with mental disorders and other memory issues that make it hard for them to retain basic information.
“The problem is, most of those people are currently running for President,” the source said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/82844550/
ReplyDeleteYeah Mark, I like cheap stocks and Dell is cheap. You can pick a lot of holes in their story (people are buying tablets, not pc's, Laptops are bought in stores, not online, etc.) But I think this is pretty much priced in.
ReplyDeleteI was also considering HPQ, but Dell seems pretty committed to helping their shareholders through buybacks, and have Micheal Dell running it instead of Meg Whitman.
I also think 2012 might be a better year for the largecaps as opposed to the small caps and I'm about 2/3 into small caps now.
TOF - Excellent post of the Platt interview. I like to hear from people who manage real $$$$$.
ReplyDeleteThanks much
no problem Kyle. hey i manage real money too!
ReplyDeleteBill had a good post #10255...
ReplyDeleteI think this situation means that negative real rates are with us for many years, which is good for precious metals, but also means stagflation, which is bad for equity markets. As I see it, we have returned to the 1930's, hard on the people, but with extreme volatility that resulted in fortunes being made by the observant traders who at times seized the opportunity to quickly enter and exit markets.
As for some of the comments in other posts here at the end of today, claiming cash is best, I disagree. Prices have already fallen and like the 1930's they will fall and rise and fall repeatedly. The people who are perma-bears throughout the piece are not going to be helpful here. Much of the analysis they point to relates to normal market cycles. In the past five years, however, the governments and central banks have locked down the bond markets and the housing markets, and they have been players in the commodity and precious metals markets as well. For several months, I think they have been in the process of locking down the equity markets too. We have lost many basic freedoms because of the mess of the financial, economic and fiscal systems these Interventionists and their precious banks have caused. Now, rather than let us find solutions in the marketplace, they desperately cling to control, telling us they have all the answers. One of the solutions I think they do have, unfortunately, is the power to make us muddle through the issues for many years, not permitting a market crash but also not permitting us much reward as well for the risks they expect us to take.
There is good reason so few of us are happy about the situation today. I just try to keep my head up and eyes open day to day while awaiting the next opportunity.
TOF -- are you not concerned about the seeming inevitability of France, Italy and Spain becoming Greece-like in a few years, as Platt suggested? You mentioned a few times that you expect the market to rally in 2012 -- how will it be able to do that in the face of the steadily growing probability of the Eurozone breakup (crisis, that is)?
ReplyDeleteDavid - I'm absolutely concerned about it man. But I think the strength in the US economy is picking up, contrary to what people believe. And I think they will get the whole mess solved in Europe. Mind you I don't know much but it seems to me that if they just did away with the Euro they would be fine.
ReplyDeletePerhaps a strenghtening US and strengthening Germany are enough to take care of these issues?
Either way, I'll just focus on trying to buy good companies' stocks trading at support levels. Given that we're still under the 200 DMA for the S&P (tho the DJIA is above), it makes sense to stay with more liquid stocks and stay tuned in to what is going on. I wish we could just buy the stocks we like and turn off the noise but the noise is too loud.
new post
ReplyDelete