Placed a buy limit order for 10 July $5 AUMN calls at $1.50 each. I will keep scaling into these long-dated calls until AUMN drops below $4.50 (which should happen over the course of the next few weeks). At that point, my $5 calls will still have a lot of premium left in them and I'll be able to sell them with less than 50% loss. And I will then plow that money (and all the money I raised today from selling TBT and ONP, as well as the proceeds I'll get from selling all my CSTR, which I am still holding) into the July $2.50 calls (say at $2.50 per call), and when AUMN rockets to $20 by next summer, I'll buy that house in Campbell. :)
When I was testing for a black belt in Tae Kwon Do (back in my college days), my cojones were hit much harder than now. After 7 more years of practice as a black belt, they really hardened up. :)
Great now all we are going to talk about is precious metals? Might as well go back to effen Caras blog. :) Weekly GLD chart seems to be bear flagging to me and a date with the weekly 50 ma is eminent at 153 ish. Might be a good place to make a stand long or short if it breaks. 153 to 154 key level of support for Dr. S and I guess the Drunk Topics crowd.
My Feb 124 / 127 spy strangle took a beating, I think its the volatility coming in which is a bit surprising. Today the trade is down about $1000.00 or so.
i think TOF was talking about shorting GLD a few weeks ago. I'm looking for a level to go long, on the weekly chart it still looks like an uptrend to me but if I do go long it will be with stops in place. I could also see it being a month or two away, the MACD is pointing down so I'll wait for that to turn up. I guess like a lot of charts,
For a short term long GLD trade, I'm showing RSI 7 at 22.61 and it's sitting right on top of the 200 day EMA. Here's a question, over the last 2 years, GLD has only gotten this close to the 200 day EMA twice so does the 200 day EMA really mean anything? I suppose it would be good to see it trade below it for a day or two and buy if it breaks above it with a stop in place.
my beloved CF closed at 134.72 today. My itty bitty cajones are not letting me sell cash secured puts. I think Kass was the only bullish blogger I saw today. I seldom read CC anymore so maybe there are some bulls there.
cp, thx, that does look better. ok, i'll stick with a macd signal to buy and that would take a few days, especially if i'm not trying to buy a spike down for a spike up.
I'll have to look at it some more, it does look like the only way to play a long position tomorrow would be a smaller position with a stop just below today's low. I'm not playing it, I already have too many lotto tickets out there.
T closed up .03 today, woohoo, my bond fund still works. Looks like we have record low rates for at least another year. I see David punted his TBT, I'm thinking of punting half of mine for a big loss, look for something else to play.
Aren't you guys surprised those CIA drones don't have some sort of explosive charge if they go lost? Man, 10oz of C4 would total the sucker. Seems like a good WEIGHTED return.
and this is the Elliot Wave guy I started watching on Realmoney before my subscription expired. Usually he only post once or twice a week and all I can see is this headline. Maybe he has a twitter account.
Catching the Wave: Gold Heads to Smelter By Ken Goldberg | Dec 13, 2011 | 10:00 AM EST | It appears the next bearish phase of the decline has begun.
Ken Goldberg makes it sound like GLD is going much lower, but if you thought $146 was a good buy spot,
Buy 1 Jan 151 strike put for $1.92, sell 2 Jan 146 strikes for $1.04, net credit of $16.00 before commission, so lets say this is a costless trade, puts you in GLD around $141.30 ish after commission.
I don't this trade so much but I do go through the exercise just to see what it looks like. I will consider something like this on CF if it trades to the 120's.
AUMN, with stock making a lower low but the MACD making a higher low, supposed to be very bullish according to Dr Elder's rules. I'm not sure what he would think with current MACD a little wobbly and going sideways. Let's but the company. I'll put in $5,000.00 while you guys pick up the rest.
Whew! Interesting couple of days. A little out of school talk... Landry short a couple days ago: GOLD (the stock - Randgold). He says be careful as we all know gold (the metal) has nine lives and the triangle patterns have a high incidence of breaking/faking and then reversing. I'm watching that as Peter Brandt said the same. As someone here noticed at CC (Mark...) all I did was mention what a loser Dr. S is (he must have been losing his ass and his head yesterday) and apparently it pushed him over the edge (and his follower school of rock and roll Jack Black). I didn't see the rest as I just put them on ignore user and went on with my business, which frankly hasn't been much lately with a sideways range bound market. This sucker's been like Katy Perry, it's up, it's down, it's up, it's down. F that. I had a couple of day trades yesterday (SPPI/DEXO)for lunch money and went home flat.
For S&G's I like TASR if it gets above today's knockout bar. Maybe EUO/UUP if the euro bounces and resumes. Brandt thinks the euro goes to $1.10 from the chart. It's bound to follow the pattern. Today was down, tomorrow is up unless all hell breaks lose for some news driven reason. I see 2nd is spot on with the tea leaves. We should have all gone all in short when Bill started flipping out a few days ago. Yesterday was the coup de gras when the peanut gallery went insane. Dr. S was like a junk yard dog on crack and a short chain. BTW, I didn't instigate anything, but I did stupidly try to talk him off the ledge. There's no trying to reason with insanity when it's losing money. I hope his wife is okay. I appreciate the support from RoBear though! LOL!
Gold: The Price At Which I Buy Will Depend On The Circumstances “It has been correcting for the past three months so it is overdue for a stronger correction, but I have no idea by how much. It is very unusual for any asset to go up for eleven years in a row with no correction. I own gold and I am not selling my gold."
"The price at which I buy will depend on the circumstances. If it is going down because the world is going bankrupt then it would need to be priced at 900 USD for me to buy it. If there is an artificial occurrence then maybe between 1,200 USD and 1,400 USD. It depends on what is going on in the world.” - in Investment Week
Disclosure: I started a very small position in UXG at the low today. Small enough that it won't hurt me. WTF. That and I am short GOLD (Randgold) and if it reverses I can get out with a profit. It's for S&G's only.
"TOF- That is a text book flag for MITK. measured move is to 10.12ish."
Mark - I'm thinking MITK could make that move in a single day. There's still a lot of life in this sucker yet. Just think: they have only 1/6 of their total signed banks online right now. All of them will be online generating revenues for the company within the next year. No chance this stays at these levels for very long.
I remember wondering in the summer of 2008 how smart was the Smart Money that started selling UXG in the summer of 2007, and I remember being amazed at how long the downtrend in junior miners can last. GDXJ has been going down for exactly a year now. What if the smart money is correctly foreseeing a global recession with a major flight for $USD, which will send gold/silver/miners MUCH lower? Such a recession has not even started yet. So we may be MANY months away from gold/silver/miners bottoming out, with the major collapse still ahead...
David, the flight to $USD will include TLT then, right? Do you think that it goes appreciably above $125? Or does $125 act as resistance and the parabolic move in T's (and very low yields) reverse? How many people will stick around for even higher highs and puny yields? It's self correcting, isn't it?
If we really have started a bear phase for gold, these "mean reversion" approaches may not work as the trend will take over.
Like I said, I think a rally to GLD 170 - 175 would be a great short. Options on GLD are rally expensive unfortunately. To play a year trend, the Jan, 2013 at the money options are over 11%. Probably just have to go with GLL.
No wonder...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-13/dark-side-of-fracking-makes-heckmann-bid-target-for-oil-services-real-m-a.html?cmpid=yhoo
I'd hate to be at the dinner table with Dr. S tonight.
ReplyDeletePlaced a buy limit order for 10 July $5 AUMN calls at $1.50 each. I will keep scaling into these long-dated calls until AUMN drops below $4.50 (which should happen over the course of the next few weeks). At that point, my $5 calls will still have a lot of premium left in them and I'll be able to sell them with less than 50% loss. And I will then plow that money (and all the money I raised today from selling TBT and ONP, as well as the proceeds I'll get from selling all my CSTR, which I am still holding) into the July $2.50 calls (say at $2.50 per call), and when AUMN rockets to $20 by next summer, I'll buy that house in Campbell. :)
ReplyDeleteDavid- You have titanium cojones.
ReplyDeletePersonally, I am planning to pick up a little SLW, UXG, and AUMN within the next few days.
ReplyDeleteDamn David...Please be careful buddy.
ReplyDelete2nd- Let us know when you see it. Volume not there yet for me.
ReplyDelete"David- You have titanium cojones."
ReplyDeleteWhen I was testing for a black belt in Tae Kwon Do (back in my college days), my cojones were hit much harder than now. After 7 more years of practice as a black belt, they really hardened up. :)
PAL - She's gettin' there...
ReplyDeleteGold - Why doesn't anyone short this one when it's bouncing off the top of it's range?
ReplyDeleteI think if you want to short gold, you must think the euro is going the way of the dodo-bird, which very well could happen...
A short might also work if oil breaks down, but which happens first, the underlying or the producers? In the case of gold, it was the producers.
CP- Seems like it's always the producers either way. Spot prices can be sticky and take more time to move.
ReplyDeleteSpooky pics...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.theatlantic.com/infocus/2011/12/chinas-abandoned-wonderland/100207/
Great now all we are going to talk about is precious metals? Might as well go back to effen Caras blog. :)
ReplyDeleteWeekly GLD chart seems to be bear flagging to me and a date with the weekly 50 ma is eminent at 153 ish. Might be a good place to make a stand long or short if it breaks. 153 to 154 key level of support for Dr. S and I guess the Drunk Topics crowd.
In my view, we just broke the trendline for GLD going back about a year and a half. Ideally, we get a bounce back here which is then shortable.
ReplyDeleteShould we talk about European carry all's?
ReplyDeleteevening, no trades today
ReplyDeleteMy Feb 124 / 127 spy strangle took a beating, I think its the volatility coming in which is a bit surprising. Today the trade is down about $1000.00 or so.
i think TOF was talking about shorting GLD a few weeks ago. I'm looking for a level to go long, on the weekly chart it still looks like an uptrend to me but if I do go long it will be with stops in place. I could also see it being a month or two away, the MACD is pointing down so I'll wait for that to turn up. I guess like a lot of charts,
For a short term long GLD trade, I'm showing RSI 7 at 22.61 and it's sitting right on top of the 200 day EMA. Here's a question, over the last 2 years, GLD has only gotten this close to the 200 day EMA twice so does the 200 day EMA really mean anything? I suppose it would be good to see it trade below it for a day or two and buy if it breaks above it with a stop in place.
Carry-all? Is that baggage?
ReplyDeleteAbandoned Wonderland - Hmm... First build, then negotiate land contract?
port - Everyone's been watching the 144DMA for gold, some watch the 150DMA.
ReplyDeletemy beloved CF closed at 134.72 today. My itty bitty cajones are not letting me sell cash secured puts. I think Kass was the only bullish blogger I saw today. I seldom read CC anymore so maybe there are some bulls there.
ReplyDeletePort- Don't you think the weakness in the producers portends further weakness in the underlying?
ReplyDeleteSilver is trying hard to play catch up tonight -- maybe this was a false breakdown? Maybe GDXJ will rally like crazy tomorrow?
ReplyDeletecp, thx, that does look better. ok, i'll stick with a macd signal to buy and that would take a few days, especially if i'm not trying to buy a spike down for a spike up.
ReplyDeleteTOF- That is a text book flag for MITK. measured move is to 10.12ish.
ReplyDeleteWhy isn't Eric Holder in jail BTW?
ReplyDeleteMark - could be, I just look at GLD though
ReplyDeleteI'll have to look at it some more, it does look like the only way to play a long position tomorrow would be a smaller position with a stop just below today's low. I'm not playing it, I already have too many lotto tickets out there.
T closed up .03 today, woohoo, my bond fund still works. Looks like we have record low rates for at least another year. I see David punted his TBT, I'm thinking of punting half of mine for a big loss, look for something else to play.
ReplyDeleteAren't you guys surprised those CIA drones don't have some sort of explosive charge if they go lost? Man, 10oz of C4 would total the sucker. Seems like a good WEIGHTED return.
ReplyDeleteIs LNG just dead until that gap fills?
ReplyDeleteand this is the Elliot Wave guy I started watching on Realmoney before my subscription expired. Usually he only post once or twice a week and all I can see is this headline. Maybe he has a twitter account.
ReplyDeleteCatching the Wave: Gold Heads to Smelter
By
Ken Goldberg
| Dec 13, 2011 | 10:00 AM EST |
It appears the next bearish phase of the decline has begun.
I found a GLD head and shoulders on the daily with a downside target of $146.00 ish.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.screencast.com/t/xscvT5S6E
I had to use a rectangle to measure the height of the head to the neckline.
Ken Goldberg makes it sound like GLD is going much lower, but if you thought $146 was a good buy spot,
ReplyDeleteBuy 1 Jan 151 strike put for $1.92, sell 2 Jan 146 strikes for $1.04, net credit of $16.00 before commission, so lets say this is a costless trade, puts you in GLD around $141.30 ish after commission.
I don't this trade so much but I do go through the exercise just to see what it looks like. I will consider something like this on CF if it trades to the 120's.
I love reading, but I'm having the hardest time with 'The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo'. Support group?
ReplyDeleteGLD on the weekly. Bang, your dead. 142.
ReplyDeleteAUMN, with stock making a lower low but the MACD making a higher low, supposed to be very bullish according to Dr Elder's rules. I'm not sure what he would think with current MACD a little wobbly and going sideways. Let's but the company. I'll put in $5,000.00 while you guys pick up the rest.
ReplyDeletePort- That's funny! I've been trying to pitch in about 36K but to no luck.
ReplyDeleteWhew! Interesting couple of days.
ReplyDeleteA little out of school talk...
Landry short a couple days ago: GOLD (the stock - Randgold).
He says be careful as we all know gold (the metal) has nine lives and the triangle patterns have a high incidence of breaking/faking and then reversing. I'm watching that as Peter Brandt said the same.
As someone here noticed at CC (Mark...) all I did was mention what a loser Dr. S is (he must have been losing his ass and his head yesterday) and apparently it pushed him over the edge (and his follower school of rock and roll Jack Black). I didn't see the rest as I just put them on ignore user and went on with my business, which frankly hasn't been much lately with a sideways range bound market. This sucker's been like Katy Perry, it's up, it's down, it's up, it's down. F that. I had a couple of day trades yesterday (SPPI/DEXO)for lunch money and went home flat.
For S&G's I like TASR if it gets above today's knockout bar.
Maybe EUO/UUP if the euro bounces and resumes.
Brandt thinks the euro goes to $1.10 from the chart. It's bound to follow the pattern. Today was down, tomorrow is up unless all hell breaks lose for some news driven reason.
I see 2nd is spot on with the tea leaves. We should have all gone all in short when Bill started flipping out a few days ago. Yesterday was the coup de gras when the peanut gallery went insane. Dr. S was like a junk yard dog on crack and a short chain. BTW, I didn't instigate anything, but I did stupidly try to talk him off the ledge. There's no trying to reason with insanity when it's losing money. I hope his wife is okay.
I appreciate the support from RoBear though! LOL!
Good luck tomorrow guys.
FF
Saw this awhile back on Jim Roger's blog:
ReplyDeleteGold: The Price At Which I Buy Will Depend On The Circumstances
“It has been correcting for the past three months so it is overdue for a stronger correction, but I have no idea by how much. It is very unusual for any asset to go up for eleven years in a row with no correction. I own gold and I am not selling my gold."
"The price at which I buy will depend on the circumstances. If it is going down because the world is going bankrupt then it would need to be priced at 900 USD for me to buy it. If there is an artificial occurrence then maybe between 1,200 USD and 1,400 USD. It depends on what is going on in the world.” - in Investment Week
Disclosure: I started a very small position in UXG at the low today. Small enough that it won't hurt me. WTF. That and I am short GOLD (Randgold) and if it reverses I can get out with a profit. It's for S&G's only.
"TOF- That is a text book flag for MITK. measured move is to 10.12ish."
ReplyDeleteMark - I'm thinking MITK could make that move in a single day. There's still a lot of life in this sucker yet. Just think: they have only 1/6 of their total signed banks online right now. All of them will be online generating revenues for the company within the next year. No chance this stays at these levels for very long.
I remember wondering in the summer of 2008 how smart was the Smart Money that started selling UXG in the summer of 2007, and I remember being amazed at how long the downtrend in junior miners can last. GDXJ has been going down for exactly a year now. What if the smart money is correctly foreseeing a global recession with a major flight for $USD, which will send gold/silver/miners MUCH lower? Such a recession has not even started yet. So we may be MANY months away from gold/silver/miners bottoming out, with the major collapse still ahead...
ReplyDeleteDavid, the flight to $USD will include TLT then, right? Do you think that it goes appreciably above $125? Or does $125 act as resistance and the parabolic move in T's (and very low yields) reverse? How many people will stick around for even higher highs and puny yields? It's self correcting, isn't it?
ReplyDeleteHulbert saying gold due for a strong rally based on poor sentiment:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-gold-bugs-are-throwing-in-the-towel-2011-12-14
If we really have started a bear phase for gold, these "mean reversion" approaches may not work as the trend will take over.
Like I said, I think a rally to GLD 170 - 175 would be a great short. Options on GLD are rally expensive unfortunately. To play a year trend, the Jan, 2013 at the money options are over 11%. Probably just have to go with GLL.
Gotta like headlines like these from Marketwatch:
ReplyDelete"This slump won’t end until 2031
Commentary: Our predicament parallels the Long Depression of 1870s"
"Our decade from hell will get worse in 2012"
Plus, pretty much every article I read in the WSJ is "this is good, but watch out" or "this is bad, but it's going to get much worse".
To me it is a sign the gloom and doomers are getting cocky and we should be ready for a good move upwards.
Mark,
ReplyDeletenever read the book, but watched the movie. Pretty intense and kind of disturbing - wouldn't see something like that made in Hollywood.
Sorry- Forgot to 'new post' the new post. BB- we're on the same wavelength, bro. I read the same column, and used it for the lead post.
ReplyDeletePeter B has some new targets for stuff we like to watch:
ReplyDeletehttp://peterlbrandt.com/
FF - I have my doubts TLT will move appreciably higher that $125, I think China is raising cash with which to buy commodities.
ReplyDelete