I can't really say why- the market just feels like it wants to go up. Flipping the 403(b) back into VINIX at the close.
WTF- I'm not allowed to transfer out of MM funds into VINIX due to 'excessive trading?' No exchanges allowed until after 12/31/11. Too ----ing much, man.
Work-around- Funded the BrokerageLink accounts. As of tomorrow, will be able to trade in and out of IVV (the iShares version of SPX). Even better-IVV is one of 30 commission-free ETFs offered by Fidelity.
Found a work-around. Later.
ReplyDelete2nd - The VIX is the tell in my mind. There are two possibile explanations for the collapsing VIX in the face of a falling market:
ReplyDelete(1) People expect the European fiasco to subside and the market to rise soon.
(2) Maybe a ton of people were betting on the VIX rising into the December expiration and they are now rolling their bets over to January.
My guess is the former. I think within a couple of months the debt crisis in Europe will be resolved, our economy will continue to strengthen and, God forbid, Europe will be on its way to recovery. S&P 500 = 1,400.
The collapsing VIX just means the price of hedging is low. I wouldn't read much else into it.
ReplyDelete"The collapsing VIX just means the price of hedging is low. I wouldn't read much else into it."
ReplyDelete2nd -- smart money likes to hedge itself when they feel that the chance of a big drop is high. Apparently, right now they feel that the chance of such a drop has decreased markedly.
2nd - I would think that the VIX would rise if there was real fear that the market was going to drop big. At the very least the VIX would be rising over the past week or two as the market has fallen, but it has done the opposite which is weird.
ReplyDeleteSo one of my friends works for State Street...he's pretty high up there and he told me that several banks that he knows of in the US (maybe including his as well but he wouldn't say) are taking advantage of the mess going on in Europe by buying a lot of assets off the European banks. He said he thinks its primarily stronger assets that don't have default risk but he said he things that will help solve a lot of the problems in Europe as those banks shore up capital.
Is there a more hated stock then Rimm? $15.00 stock that earns 1.27 a quarter and goes down? 5%
ReplyDeleteTOF- Re- Your friend at STT...I belive that was what MOG was saying.
ReplyDeleteZynga has a bigger market cap then Rimm right now. Farmville Vs Billions of handsets. Valuation makes no sense.
ReplyDeleteCheck this out TOF.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.fastcompany.com/biomimicry/never-before-seen-optical-trick-creates-ultra-secure-cash?partner=rss
RB- No, there's not.
ReplyDeleteDunno, 'bout zynga, but let me google that for ya! :)
ReplyDeletehttp://lmgtfy.com/?q=zynga+market+cap
RIMM - Total shares outstanding (What's up with that?):
ReplyDeletefinviz: 524.16M
shortsqueeze.com: 1,258,380,000
http://www.shortsqueeze.com/?symbol=rimm&submit=Short+Quote%99
CC - That's really cool man.
ReplyDeleteMark - I thought MOG was an oil guy. Didn't know he has a scoop on the banking industry but it's definitely interesting.
2nd - I like that you're getting back on board. You've done a good job of trading this market lately. I think this there are decent odds we could be under 7% unemployment by the end of next year.
"Gold Decline May Be Foreshadowing A Market Crisis":
ReplyDeletehttp://seekingalpha.com/article/313989-gold-decline-may-be-foreshadowing-a-market-crisis
I would at definitely assign some probability to this situation. It would totally such if this were to happen, as it would probably send AUMN down to $1 and wipe out all my capital...
VIX - some comments Pisani made re Low VIX...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cnbc.com/id/45421805/Why_Isn_t_VIX_Moving_Up
#3 was interesting
Supercalifragilistichyperrehypothicationexpealidocious!
ReplyDeletehttp://www.financialsense.com/contributors/jim-willie/2011/12/15/pathogenesis-of-central-bank-ruin
David - "it would probably send AUMN down to $1 and wipe out all my capital... "
ReplyDeleteQuite possibly, but for how long? Don't be fooled by the paper price of PM's posted by CME, the architects of MF Global segregated accounts thievery?
I sense restless natives in the jungle.
See edited Lead Post for work-around. Unfortunately, however, I'm unable to open any positions until Friday.
ReplyDelete"excessive trading" - so you get penalized for trading too much yet HFT operations aren't? makes sense to me.
ReplyDeleteKyle - That comment from Bob Pisani about it being 30 days out doesn't quite make sense now since the Christmas/New Years Holidays are only 2 weeks out...
ReplyDeleteTOF - You have of course noticed Wall Street prefers retail sheep, err, investors, keep one arm tied behind their back at all times.
ReplyDeleteTOF- MOG is one of THE smartest cat's I've ever met. Did you see the response from him I copied here?
ReplyDeleteJB just sent me this. Don't read if you are long.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.financialsense.com/contributors/2011/12/02/ann-barnhardt/interview-transcript
Nice work around 2nd! I wonder if Schwab has one of those.
ReplyDelete