Wednesday, December 21, 2011
12/21/11 Take It Easy
Well, I'm running down the road
tryin' to juggle my load
I've got seven women on my mind,
Four that wanna own me,
Two that wanna stone me,
One says she's a friend of mine,
Picked up Ttttttttt-Z-A, picked up Tttttt-Z-A
Don't let the sight of gap down losses
Drive you crazy
Lighten up while you still can
Don't even try to understand
Just find a place to take your stand
and take it easy
We may lose and we may win though
we will never be here again
so open up, I'm climbin' in,
so take it easy..."Alright"
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
WTF, Mark. Any excuse works for me.
ReplyDeletevb- The date will likely hinge on your availability. I have some time the first week of January.
ReplyDeleteDavid - I'm not entirely sure we will be higher in 2012 but I think the governments around the world will just open up the liquidity floodgates should all hell break loose, which will once again cause markets to rally.
ReplyDeleteWe should do dinner at Alfred's, just to see if David can actually finish one real martini. Personally, I wasn't able to do it.
ReplyDeleteI want to do Alfred's also. Remember, I'm springing for TOF's airfare, so let's start putting out dates. I'm guessing it needs to be a Sat. night to make it happen for everyone. I'm pretty free through Feb....Then the madness begins all over again.
ReplyDeleteWhich brings me to recollections of jury duty interviews. It amazed me how many in the pool responded positively to 'Have you ever been convicted of a misdemeanor/felony?' with 'DUI.' Both counselors assured respondents it was a common occurrence.
ReplyDeleteI think I was able to down 1/2 a martini last summer, but was a little concerned about my BAC as I staggered out to the parking garage.
2nd - Drinking and being worried about your BAC is a common occurrence for traders these days.
ReplyDeleteI'm taking the bus/cab/ferry route...in what ever order that takes!
ReplyDeleteI always watch my BAC when under the influence on the streets of SF.
ReplyDeleteI had a DUI back in college. Had no intention of driving, but the limo never showed up. I can't quite remember my BAC, but if anyone get's to within .05 of it I'll by their dinner.
ReplyDeleteNo fair if I've posted this story before, and I think I have :)
ReplyDeleteI almost killed myself when i was 18...my parents were really strict and I would never think to ask for a ride if I drank. I drank at a party and drove home...passed out while I was drive and woke up with my car stalled out in a ditch on the side of the road...on the other side of the road.
ReplyDeleteNeedless to say I never drink and drive.
Not sure about Feb guys...it's quite a trip for me.
CVV > The selloff looks nasty but volume isn't really that high on this selloff. Maybe it's an opportunity?
What I'm looking for is negative sentiment. The only way we get that is a sell off. So I'm looking for a sell off. If we don't get one, then obviously I'm out of luck. But given my goal of 5-7% a year, I'm not too worried- at some point during any calendar year there will always be periods of negative sentiment. And if a sideways market is what we have, then the only way to make any money will be opening/closing positions on negative/positive sentiment.
ReplyDeletehttp://news.yahoo.com/hong-kong-culls-chickens-market-bans-trade-h5n1-094435645.html
ReplyDeleteRemember H5N1?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/45749292
ReplyDeleteFor the optimists out there...
Speaking of Brazil, what are the best investments over there? MELI is one I can think of, but it's way too high for me.
Another one:
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/falling-vix-bullish-indicator-yes-says-jon-najarian-180031718.html
David - one other thing I think I mentioned a week or so ago: it's very rare for the US markets to take a sustained downturn as a result of overseas recessions/crises.
ReplyDeleteThink about some of the more recent foreign downturns:
Asian Crisis in 90's
Russian Crisis
Latin American Crisis
and
The big one: Japan going into basically a depression in the 90's.
In each case our markets recovered and went to much higher levels. Japan was a HUGE country at the time and our main competitor. Then it went into a depression. Yet our economy was pretty much unaffected by this. I think the same thing is going to happen here yet again...and those people that were scared out of the markets are going to be jumping back in after realizing we're not going to collapse.
Damn...Toyota thinks someone is vandalizing my truck. Pouring crap in the radiator.
ReplyDeleteThat would have to be #99 on a list of 100 most likely causes for the problem. Toyota generally takes problems/complaints seriously, in my experience.
ReplyDeleteAnyone have either II or AAII sentiment survey numbers for this week?
ReplyDelete2nd- Yeah, it's just so weird. I'm going to call my insurance Co. They are talking some real $'s here and this is the 2nd time...and what if something 'else' is wrong that will appear in a few months.
ReplyDeleteShanghai hit a new 52-wk low earlier this evening:
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.sina.com.cn/realstock/company/sh000001/nc.shtml
CAF is at a 5-year low.
ReplyDeleteu guys are funny
ReplyDeletedid nothing today but watch my MITK rocket higher.
Plan on doing nothing tomorrow either. Would like to order S&P +40 though.
CAF is truly a WTF revelation. I recall last trading it around the time I took the Hawaii cruise in Spring 2008 in the 40s, briefly considering it a buy-and-hold bargain after dropping from 70. It closed today at 19.56...
ReplyDeletePort- Are you implying MITK wont rocket higher tomorrow?
ReplyDeleteThat new low in Shanghai must have attracted buyers- the SSE shot up 30 points in the past 30 minutes.
ReplyDeleteheck no, but I'm not selling my 500 shares for a measly $9.00
ReplyDeleteI think if we could get 3 weeks with little to no news out of China and the euro, we can make our new 52 week on the SPY before things fall apart.
And how rude of me, I want to thank all you good taxpayers or picking up the tab of my home refinance cost, which was about $2700 or so. It's a 20 yr note at 4.25% now. We have been paying on it for about 10 yrs so the 20 yr note was fine. However, because I personally view paying off debt as a good investment for potentially hard times, I plan on applying my MITK winnings to my house note.
i read my stuff after i post it, lots of typo's. I should be wearing glasses.
ReplyDeleteour new 52 week HIGH on the SPY
good taxpayers FOR picking up the tab
2nd..I love those quick stabs below recent lows. Are you OK though? It's getting late.
ReplyDelete20 year note, 10 years left, and MITK winnings on 500 shares will pay it off? Man, I need to move to Tx. Cardboard boxes are cheap there!!
ReplyDeleteAAPL is one that interest me as a long term investment. I'd sell one month out of the money PUT (yeah, just one put for my account) to buy it, then sell a covered call against the stock once put to me.
ReplyDeleteOne of the guest on FAST MONEY says AAPL will have $120/share in cash at some point next year. I wonder where AAPL keeps it's cash?
Wait a minute. You have a 20 note now and the APR was 4.25%?
ReplyDelete'I wonder where AAPL keeps it's cash?'...You don't know it, but you hit the nail on the head!!! That was MOG's biggest concern during the crash. Everyone was afraid if their CASH was safe! For WY that was in the B's!!
ReplyDeleteThink about what a butt pucker that would be for A CEO/Board...Is my 38B in cash really there?
ReplyDeletemy wife likes to remind me over and over and over, what a puny little house we live in. i like to remind her that i was working for a bankrupt company when we bought the house and we both knew lots of energy peeps still lookng for jobs.
ReplyDeleteAnd your right, not much to a lot of our houses. The house next door is having piers put in due to foundation problems. I went inside to see where they are putting in some of the piers. I was shocked to see how thin the slab is. No rebar and just a wire mesh that I thought was only used in driveways.
Another note on AAPL, our company gives us HP laptops and blackberry's but I heard today that they are passing out iPad's to some of our peeps that need to need to be near a computer on the weekend. We are not very advance where tech is concerned and now we are beta testing iPads. There are a lot of peeps out there waiting for their companies to switch over, at least for cell phones and possibly laptops.
mark, was 30 yr note at 5.75%, been paying on it for about 9 yrs. When you and all the other taxpayers unknowingly but graciously picked up my refinancing cost via some government program, it left me with a 20 yr note at 4.25%. To qualify for the program, it had to be the original note and I couldn't bump up the loan amount.
ReplyDeletewe had not refinanced because we are looking for a bigger house in this area and I didn't think it would be worth the refinancing cost.
Port- I met with a client a few weeks ago that bought a house up here with a crappy house. From TX and they build stuff that monitors the volume of Natty in pipe lines. Cost him about 1M for the property. He's looking at a 1.5M new house. Non public Co. so I'm guessing family money.
ReplyDeleteoh yeah, his biz has been rocking for about 5 years now i bet
ReplyDeleteBoyzz...We are going higher, much higher... at least I am. About 12' to the 2nd floor. At the open!
ReplyDelete"Toyota thinks someone is vandalizing my truck. Pouring crap in the radiator."
ReplyDeleteSo how do they lift the hood without pulling the hood release from inside the cab?
"CAF is at a 5-year low."
ReplyDeleteWell, TOF has already pointed out what happens lately when something breaks a major support level -- it rockets higher and never looks back.
It is interesting, though, that HAO is still much higher than its 2009 level...
CP- I don't know. But it's the 2nd time they say foreign material is in the radiator. I'm meeting with the FBI ( insurance adjustor ) tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteEurope according to Jim rogers.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O1Yow8m6uu4&feature=player_embedded
I'm trying to ignore GB and just listen to JR.
JJG ?
ReplyDeletecc i ignored george bush a while ago
ReplyDeleteGlenn Beck...in the interview with JR...Jim Rogers. Who is George Bush?
ReplyDeleteyeah i was just kidding.
ReplyDeleteMITK could have a huge day one of these days...I wouldn't be surprised to see a +$1.50 day.
ReplyDeleteMan, a close @ $8.00 would be huge on the daily TOF. I'd be thrilled with that...But I'll take a buck fitty if I have to.
ReplyDelete"the 2nd time they say foreign material is in the radiator. "
ReplyDeleteCould be mixing of two incompatible types of antifreeze?
GM owners have reported "snot" in their cooling systems within months of having topped up the Dexcool with conventional ethylene glycol type of antifreeze. Dexcool has also been blamed for intake manifold and head gasket failure in GM engines, the theory is that Dexcool dissolves the gaskets.
MITK - Sure looks like it's headed for $10.50, especially if it can recapture the 200SMA?
ReplyDeleteCP- Damn, it does look like snot. I never do that stuff myself, but I'll ask about it. Thanks!!
ReplyDelete"I never do that stuff myself, but I'll ask about it."
ReplyDeleteThere's your answer. Don't expect anyone to step up and take responsibility. Do you keep your service receipts?
Most popular youtube of 2011.
ReplyDeleteFricking hilarious.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=nGeKSiCQkPw
Wow, made a comment on Seeking Alpha about how to be careful extrapolating the 10 year bull market in gold into the future and got completely slammed. Makes me think if the gold weakness does continue that there is a lot of selling that will happen over a long time before it is done.
ReplyDeleteCC- Yes, I do for tax reasons. I'm going with the 'blame everyone but me approach!"
ReplyDeleteKyle, Landry webinar is starting now!
ReplyDeleteCC- Ask him about OPEN.
ReplyDeleteI'll tell you myself.
ReplyDeleteHe wouldn't like the chart.
In a long term downtrend so not a long (yet) and already down from the highs so not a short.
He might have shorted it at about 80. If so he would still be short.
He may look at it if the MA's bowtie up and then correct. (a transitional pattern) provided it had enough volume and relatively high volatility.
CC - Ask him about TZOO too.
ReplyDeleteYou guys see GE? That's some powerful move over the past week. Coming right into prior support which could act as resistance.
You guys know Landry's system.
ReplyDeleteHe waits for set ups in persistent trends.
He's not a bottom picker or a fundamental guy. He scans several thousand charts a night for patterns out of new highs (picks transitions up and stocks rolling over (short candidates).
TZOO isn't going to come up in his screens (he uses Telechart, a database charting software) so he wouldn't even see it. If it starts making new highs and it trades enough volume and is volatile enough then his screen will pick it up. Then he would wait for it to pullback to put it on the watch list to see if it triggers by re-asserting the trend of the new highs.
The charts are showing strength in pipelines, utilities, selected retail, reits and bond related issues.
So you ask, what is the relationship?
Pipelines are Bakken based and need financing.
Utilities need financing.
REITS need financing. SEE BONDS! Low yields....
CC - How do you think he would view CX?
ReplyDeleteMy take on TZOO from technical look is that is has already started a series of higher lows and now is the time to buy it given that it is a relatively low risk set up...
ReplyDeleteThe lows it made in October were textbook: just above the prior resistance from early 2010 and where it broke out from in 2010.
Since then it rallied hard, then made a higher low on 11/21 at $24.9. Since then it has made a higher low at $25.2 and continues to trend higher. I think you could do really well buying here and putting a stop at $24.6. The risk is 8% downside with possibly as much as 31% to 50% upside short term. That's a 5:1 ratio
if any of you guys follow CSTR...it's basically right at the upward sloping trendline from the 11/25 lows...could make for a really good low risk trade.
ReplyDeleteOn the flip side I'd say the odds of CSTR testing $40 again are quite high.
ReplyDeleteI have sold out of my pipelines, utilities and RETI's over the last month or 2.
ReplyDeleteIn my opinion, these are among the most expensive stocks in the market and, while they may not drop due to their generally good yields, I don't see much upside in them in 2012.
Assuming Europe continues to settle down and the U.S. economy improves, I see these areas as being sources of cash to chase more economically sensitive stocks with better upside.
Kyle, He would like the cross of the MA's but he might not go for it because of the overhead supply at $7.50. A good example of what is coming up lately is MWE and KOG (recently triggered so not set-up now).
ReplyDeleteFor an example of one that was set-up and failed see TASR. Pulled back and then went too long and never set-up. Today KME came up in the screen. It would need to pullback and then re-assert trend to trigger, but you can see the persistent trend. He wouldn't put it in the service unless it pulled back though.
CX would need to trend a bit more then pullback, but it *may* have resistance at $7.50.
Landry's TA is very simple. He doesn't use oscillators or trend lines. For the most part he watches price bars, draws trend arrows and watches overhead supply, historic volatility and if a stock has enough daily volume to get in or out easily or to borrow for shorting. Every once in a while he throws in the MA's on a daily or weekly chart. It's pretty simple. Not a lot of mumbo jumbo.
I doubt he would look at CSTR for example. He would say the chart is 'all over the place' and 'looks like an electrocardiogram'.
TZOO...maybe if it broke out and then pulled back. Draw your arrow. Sideways for two months.
Some overhead at $55 or so but from a breakout at $35 - $40 not a bad problem to have. Everyone that bought at $55 and above is going to look to get out though at break even, which is the trouble with overhead supply.
CC - Thanks for the reply. I built some Landry-style scans a while back and just ran one of them...
ReplyDelete... [sma(10,close) > ema(20,close)] and [ema(20,close) > ema(30,close)]
and [50 <= RSI (14)] and [RSI (14) <= 70] being the key part.
I noted that there does look like a volume 'desert' (if it can clear the 5.88 mid-Aug spike) up to the 7.50 overhead supply.
Thanks again
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteSlightly edited:
ReplyDeleteDifferent strokes for different folks BB.
That's the difference between trend trading and value investing. All systems have strengths and weaknesses. Neither of us knows if the trend will continue. For me up and for you down.
My safety hedge is a knockout pullback/trend resumption and yours is a larger knockout that you buy cheap and hope reverses.
A trend trader is not opposed to transitional patterns off a long base which might coincide with value investor interest (BC would use RSI as the trigger), but as long as the trend is down or sideways their isn't a trigger.
Dang, wrong there...'there isn't a trigger'.
ReplyDeleteYep, agree CC.
ReplyDeleteI've tried trend trading and the issue I had was identifying the trend before it became too late in the cycle and then my stop losses were greater than the profits I made on the trend.
I am impressed though by trend traders as it take a real skill to identify these consistently and manage the trades profitably.
My personal experience is I do sell too early, but almost always, the stock is lower 6 months or a year later. But I also have a trend trading friend who often ends up buying stocks I previously sold and makes money, so riding the trend to the end is something I should do better.
A somewhat disappointing day in the market for me today. Yesterday I correctly guessed that we were just having a temporary pullback and S&P will be at 1250 by the end of the week. However, based on this idea, I closed my GDXJ puts as I figured GDXJ will be moving up as well because the general risk aversion in the system is going to decrease. Today, however, GDXJ is down more than 3%. Crap...
ReplyDeleteTED spread made a new 52-week high today, and Italian bond yields are up as well. What's going on??? What are banks doing with the half a trillion they borrowed yesterday from ECB? Are they just going to stare at it???
ReplyDeleteThis feels more like a Santa Claus wedgie than a rally.
ReplyDeleteMark - Exactly...Grasso has similar sentiments...
ReplyDeletegotta have a game plan, i am sticking with selling this market until we break thru recent highs/200dma ~1260 in the S&P cash
I think that capital gets sucked into a large black hole of lost debt and is used to replace capital required by central banks and governments to buffer against bank runs. It's the same as what happened to the trillions Bernanke printed and gave to our banks. It bleeds all over the floor.
ReplyDeleteSD -- 3:11 PM SandRidge Energy (SD +19.2%) takes off, and trips up circuit breaks along the way, after Bloomberg reports Spain's Repsol (REPYY.PK) will invest $1B in its Mississippi Lime oil project.
ReplyDeleteIt's funny...I was going to comment this am about SD saying it must just be playing catch up.
ReplyDelete"It bleeds all over the floor."
ReplyDeleteOr it leaks out to a foreign economy?
It damn sure doesn't all pile up into my trading account... ;)
SD - Mark, didn't you say that one was a play on POO?
ReplyDeleteDavid,
ReplyDeleteI'm feeling stronger and stronger that the PM's are being used as a source to buy equities here. They are one of the few asset classes which is up on the year and people who don't want to sell their losers for tax loss purposes are inclined to sell their winners (ie. Gold) - human nature.
Th real tell will be when we get past the 27th I think as that is when trades start to settler in 2012.
CP- Yep, MOG said is was a leveraged play on the price of oil.
ReplyDeleteafternoon,
ReplyDeletesold 2 of my 3 feb 135 cf calls for 14.70. I have one left at a breakeven price around #3.95
got stopped out of my 4 jan 155 GLD calls at my purchase price. Round trip commision was $23.70 so I made T D Ameritrade happy.
not doing anything else and I'm not interested in buying anything tomorrow. I'm betting there will be a few other peeps out there just like me. Those holding over the weekend should get rewarded hopefully with a big low volume rally.
I agree with David, TLT rallied a little today and I can only assume its peeps putting money into what they think is a safer spot for the long weekend. T had a good rally today too which was surprising. I'd love to see a +200 dow day tomorrow.
Lot's of insider buying in OREX. Weight loss drugs seems to be really tough though.
ReplyDeleteI'm guessing more people will read this blog tomorrow than place a trade.
ReplyDeleteMITK failed at an important price level...I say it failed because I'm not buying the close. So, it better giddy up here right quick of we're going down again.
"MITK failed at an important price level...I say it failed because I'm not buying the close. So, it better giddy up here right quick of we're going down again. "
ReplyDeleteI agree to a certain extent Mark but it totally depends on your time frame. I can't get past the idea that 80% of all banks plan on launching mobile check deposit within 1 year and that Mitek is the only game in town. If you go on App review sites the majority of the comments you see for banks without mobile check deposit is "when are you going to add the check deposit thing like Chase?". That's a freight train that ain't stopping any time soon.
TOF- Totally agree. I'm sitting tight and might add.
ReplyDeleteHeading out to Patricia's family Christmas party.
ReplyDeleteMITK: I don't know if today is all that key. Monday (was it Monday or tuesday?) it traded to 7.81 and then reversed back to the low $7's only to trade to $7.60 something yesterday and then over $8 today and then back like it did before. Two steps forward, one back..... Sometimes you have to be willing to take some pain on a trade.
ReplyDeleteLots of times I get a real trigger, I buy and then it falls back. As long as it doesn't hit my stop (which is well outside of normal volatility) then I hold and wait. About the time you lose patience the damned thing will launch like a rocket leaving you on the pad.
BTW....2nd, what does it mean when CC is in turmoil? Is it sign of a bear or bull move?
ReplyDeleteDr. S has lost his marbles and Vad has turned into a conspiracy theorist. When Shark used to jump the shark it was time for a correction.
Anybody hear from Sharkie anymore?
CC - I agree man. One thing I have noticed in looking at past winners is just about anything can happen technically. The thing could look just terrible chart wise and force you to stop out at the EXACT time you should be adding to it. That's part of the reason that I have very little faith in technical analysis.
ReplyDeleteThe far more important thing to me when looking at this long term winners is to pay attention to fundamentals. Is the business in a long term growth mode that isn't going away within the next couple of years? Is there a catalyst for major growth that will override any potential negative technicals? If the answers are yes then oftentimes the best time to buy is when it looks bad technically.
It all depends on time frame though and I don't deny that shorter term traders that focus on technicals may be right to stop themselves out if the technicals look bad because some times it takes a while to reverse the negative techs. With MITK, though, my suspicion is that any negativity will evaporate quickly as the mobile deposit momentum continues gathering steam. With each new bank coming on stream and advertising mobile deposit, consumers are becoming more and more aware of the service. Inevitably, branch banking will go away because banks save so much from mobile deposit.
Checks will go away eventually but that time is far off. There are still 25 Billion checks written annually...the market is shrinking about 5-6% annually. If 5% of checks go through mobile deposit and MITK makes $0.10 per deposit and takes 50% of the market (already have > 70% with BAC/JPM/C/WFC signed on), it doesn't take a math wizard to see MITK making enough profits to support a much higher price. Add mobile insurance and mobile bill pay to the mix, both of which are just getting going, and there's a nice upside call option to their biz...all of which a negative technical pattern doesn't catch.
"MITK failed at an important price level...I say it failed because I'm not buying the close."
ReplyDeleteSince July, MITK made a double bottom at $6.80 and made a higher low relative to that level last week. Since that low, it keeps going up on the daily chart, so what is there to worry about? I would say the time to worry will come if MITK drops below $6.50 and stays there for a week. THEN we could argue that the trend is down.
Craig- I haven't had time to read through the blog, but my initial take would be 'correction.' Investors in general tend to play the long side, and when things are going their way, it's all good. It's only when they're losing their shirt that they start 'losing their marbles.'
ReplyDeleteI have no take on the market at this point. It seems to be oscillating back and forth in a narrow range- which makes it difficult to determine sentiment.
ReplyDeleteTechnical analysis is not voodoo or necessarily predictive. It's really only a map of past emotion and hope.
ReplyDeleteI think anything can happen period! Fundamentally or technically. The market can and will do what it wants. All fundamentals or technicals do is help us pick levels that we hope will give us at least even odds. Charts only give us a current direction. Who was it that said to only buy stocks that were going up?
All the chart does is tell us if the darned thing is currently going up or not and the time frame.
There are only a few distinct ways of doing that.
Tape reading (price)
Chart reading (tape reading on a time grid)
Oscillators (all of them delayed derivatives of price).
Fundamentals may tell us it should go up, but that is as individual a skill as any of the above. None are predictive.
The only edge a chart offers is trend once it has been established off of bottom transitions that in most cases are generated by fundamentals, or declines usually generated by a lack of fundamentals.
TA (charts) does tell us how volatile stocks are historically which helps us set stops outside of day to day noise. That allows both TA traders and fundamental traders to limit losses and to help set price targets.
You don't trust TA because it isn't perfect and I don't trust fundamentals because they aren't perfect. The price can and does run counter to both at times. The landscape is littered with the broken accounts of those who thought that either was infallible.
To each his own. We all pick our poison. Whatever gives you your edge!
Just to add TOF, Landry encourages traders to combine both if thy have some idea of fundamentals. But he cautions to stick to companies that do one thing and are easier to evaluate. Then a trader can be prepared when the stock starts to trend. No one can predictably buy bottoms or sell tops. The idea, at least for me is to buy a transition higher or short one lower and then capture the middle of the move or in Landry's case, set stops as it moves and let the market decide when it takes you out.
ReplyDeletemy prediction for tomorrow
ReplyDeleteI was having a hard time finding peeps to show me quotes today around 3 PM CT. That's a little early for peeps to be taking off in the natty world this close to expiration. This is when we spend about 4 days getting set up for the next month while still trading cash for the current month. Holidays at the end of the month make it a little trickier too. So I'm guessing most of the stock market peeps have pretty much set up their positions for the long weekend. If the market gives them something tomorrow, great. if not, they probably don't have to do anything. Soooo, I'm guessing tomorrow would probably be a great time to find some good news to goose the market up especially considering how light volume will be. And if we do get a good rally, I bet TLT closes down on the day.
If we go up and I'm near a computer, I'll probably sell a little bit of length, maybe some of my SSO.
I don't think gauging sentiment at CC is worth a shit other than for PM's...or for BC's client base..or for Rum consumption...eh, you get it.
ReplyDeleteCC - Yeah I totally agree man. to each his own. The best thing I have found from tech analysis is two things:
ReplyDelete(1) on crazy moves down (or even up), volume tells me a lot. If the volume gets massive on a move down it's time to buy. I usually buy a few days early when this happens but when it does I almost always end up making $$.
(2) Support resistance levels have worked far better for me than trend lines/chart formations.
(3) I believe that the 200 DMA has a significant impact in the short term on investors' psyche, but I also believe it can be a good contrarian signal.
Otherwise, the first thing I have to like is the fundamental story and it has to have a catalyst. Without those things it's tough to have conviction. Sometimes there are turnaround stories that I just believe in, like PIR, or turnaround stories that I hope to believe in, like NLS...both of which don't have major catalysts other than an if / then scenario. As in, if the economy improves just slightly, then the re-organizational steps they have taken could result in huge gains...those are typically high risk - high return investments.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteEdited: LOL! Landry doesn't look at volume. Too many options, black pools, ETF's to use volume as an accurate indicator. He watches price bars.
ReplyDeleteOnce a person can read a price bar and combine it with overall market action he knows what he needs to know. We use support/resistance, but in a slightly different form than traditional TA.
No trendlines. More like linear regression (line through closing prices). Not off lows or highs. LR is really to determine trend and some patterns. Formations (patterns) but not like you think of formations from traditional TA.
The 200 DMA because it is widely watched, and recently is right at overhead supply. (imagine that).
Other signals: Angle of MA. Look at the 200 DMA, it's sloping down. Gap between price bar and MA's up or down. Slope (angle) of trend up or down. Are the fast MA's on top or on bottom?A simple arrow, (not what you expect from traditional TA) but it works. Less mumbo jumbo, more common sense as it applies to trader psychology. No oscillators. They are a product of price so just watch price bar.
CC - noticed it was gettin' a little crazy over in BC land again. I thought normxyz's posting of all those links was eventually going to FLIP their BIC!
ReplyDeleteES SPX Levels Table...
ReplyDeletehttp://keeneonthemarket.com/2011/12/22/sp-500-key-levels-122311/
Yeah Kyle, I don't get it.
ReplyDeleteI just skip to the next post if it doesn't interest me.
I guess a person can find trouble where ever they want to if they look for it.
IMO it would have been as easy to ignore it as make a stink about it.
CC - I always thought it was a benefit to have many people looking at (potentially) hundreds of different sites and posting links to what the community might be interested in, but I guess not. At least NOT over there!!!
ReplyDeleteTZA - Placed a bid at today's low.
ReplyDeleteExactly. I assumed everyone could read....and process information....and use it or not as they chose to.
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure what value there is in some opinions over there. Look at the comments this AM.
These are the self appointed "value" people?
It seems what they really want is a tight circle jerk of group think and if you disagree you get shouted down. What value is in that?
How many times have we seen that over there? I've lost count.
Judging from the 'Jeff Borsato's Hidden Truth' post over there, I guess we're now 'Infovores'.
ReplyDeleteHey it's Xmas and I feel good about it. Better than being an ostrich...
Call me crazy but I take the action in MITK as positive. I'm seeing several sell orders going through at the BID yet the price is holding steady.
ReplyDeleteNews:
FirstCommand Bank ($14.7B) Launches MRDC (http://www.firstcommandbank.com/personal-banking/first-command-bank-mobile-deposit.htm)
Mark Mobius on cnbc this morn. I always did think that he has the most interesting job in the world. Wonder how his health is? He doesn't look too good in this interview...
ReplyDeletehttp://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000064098
TZA - Changed that order to a stop-limit-buy with stop currently at $28.50, looking to keep lowering the stop as market climbs.
ReplyDeleteMITK - Looks like it wants to go up, to me.
ReplyDeleteToo bad what he had to say is utter non-sense though. He looks like he always does, except maybe a bit older.
ReplyDeleteThey were discussing inflation and he says it can be reduced or avoided by increased productivity and reducing regulation. Poppycock.
Inflation is a monetary phenomenon. To out produce the money supply out there right now would mean accelerating the economy from 0 to 200 mph overnight. Does Mobius really believe we will ramp up without increasing the velocity of money? And once we get rolling does anyone really believe, after getting screwed royally for the last several decades, that labor isn't going to want their share? Even in developing nations labor wants a higher standard of living which means higher wages with increased production. I notice he did mention precious metals, so he hinted at reality.
Thanks for the video Kyle, it reminded me why I don't watch CNBC anymore. I find Joe Kiernan to be one of the most arrogant and annoying people. He proved that if you ask a leading question you can get the answer you are seeking.
Joe Kernen is the absolute WORST person on TV/Cable.
ReplyDeleteI'm booking some profits here.
ReplyDeleteEuro still iffy, dollar slightly stronger to holding, we're at the 200 DMA/resistance (126 on the spy), bonds sold then reversed slightly and USO is up a bit.
Just being a bit more neutral going into the holiday on light markets. Better to take risk off and enjoy the holiday. I imagine next week will be light and choppy.
AMAT - Last chance for alcohol?
ReplyDeleteDollar needs to move under 80 and stay there, else the threat of a destroyed euro still lingers, IMO.
ReplyDeleteI hate to think of what a destroyed euro might do, hopefully it won't be a major global event if/when it happens. I'm sure there will be an impulse of some sort though.
Its official. Someone said poppycock.
ReplyDeleteNow I can leave for the day.
Poppycock is Groucho's secret word?
ReplyDeleteDo I win a prize?
You bet your life!
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=dCMte5W5OBU
WYN: Jeez. I bought that thing at $3 in 2009. It was one of a list of 3 stocks in the S&P 500 under $5 that I bought (others were XL and CBS)...I sold all of them for a double like a week or two later and it basically kick started my portfolio.
ReplyDeleteI really had no clue it would make a complete round trip to its old highs.
Read this and then go see the new Sherlock Holmes movie. Real life imitating art or???
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-23/republican-security-advisers-tied-to-40-billion-in-contracts.html
Today could be a big day for MITK...
ReplyDeleteYikes....$37? Bet you wish you had hung onto that one. That would have been a bit more than a kick start!
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/Market-Vectors-Family-ETFs-bw-1628324380.html?x=0
ReplyDeleteIs GDXJ paying a total dividend of around $1.50 per share??? Where are they getting this money from if none of the junior miners are actually paying dividends? Can someone please explain to me this accounting stuff?
You bet your life? It's 10:40pm - That means it's time to play "BEAT THE REAPER!"
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D3zZ_ih0Jpc
The TED spread keeps going up, at 58bp now -- that's creepy...
ReplyDeleteSo what do you think? Is MITK going to close above $8?
ReplyDeleteset-ups.....
ReplyDeleteKOG forging higher. Got in multiple positions starting under 9 and trading around. Now around 9.50
AEN, in at 1.31
non-Landry stuff: Took a little MITK off, plan on re-loading a bit more if it goes my way.
Not sure CC...I thought you sold MITK at $7.8 the other day?
ReplyDeleteHow to deeply annoy your friends:
ReplyDeletehttp://screencast.com/t/KAo1LHeU
Just noticing head and shoulders (red lines), trading range (green lines), gatekeeper retrace (blue check), support/resistance (green lines).
I hope the fundamentals are awesome....they NEED to be. My stop is just under $7. We are at previous resistance which might explain the problem getting through $8.
Not predicting, Just be prepared.....
I did. Then it pulled back to close at 7.40 where I bought more. Then sold some at 7.70, then bought again the next day at 7.68. Reloaded more today at the open, sold partial later as posted.
ReplyDeleteKOG: I've also been trading around a central position in KOG. I like to trade around more volatile positions. When it works it works and when it doesn't it sucks.
ReplyDeleteI figured we would push up against 126 on the SPY and give some back, so I traded the ST trend. I really had to reload when the FXE went over 130, but it's softened again.
I traded MITK three times today (1 buy, two sells) and I still have two thousand shares.
MITK: http://screencast.com/t/csoLavcoUH
ReplyDeleteJust bought another 1000 at 7.997
Since both silver and gold are staying in place for many days now, I think the pullback in GDXJ is over. Just bought 400 shares at $24.27 and placed a sell stop limit at $23.90/$23.50 (today's low was at $24.16).
ReplyDeleteDavid - Would you please stop buying PM related stuff, you're killing me over here! ;)
ReplyDeletewhat an interesting ending, going up in the last few min over the long weekend.
ReplyDeletesold 2/3 of my sso at 46.91, have the rest out after hours at 47.07, While I still believe we're going higher, I thought I would reduce my exposure for the weekend even though I still think we go higher.
Thought about buying some GLD calls but just didn't feel like putting them on.
Ugh...head and shoulders patterns...
ReplyDeleteHere's a list of some head and shoulders tops:
MSFT - Sept 1990
INTC - Oct 1991
DELL - Big ole bad one from 1992 to 1994...that one was scary, if you paid heed to that one you would have sidestepped 5,000% gains from 94 to 1999
ISRG - 2001...lucky investors that got out before the break in Sept 2001 avoided 40X returns over the next 10 years.
HD - Oct 1990 > People fortunate enough to get out before the big break in early October were able to sidestep 25X their money over the next 9 years.
CP -- there must be THE bottom somewhere for GDXJ/AUMN, right? And given their huge decline in the face of a rising price of gold/silver for the year, the rebound of GDXJ/AUMN off their bottom will be HUGE.
ReplyDeletePicking the bottom in a year-long downtrend is a risky business, though. So I was scaling in very gradually with AUMN. I placed a stop for my GDXJ purchase today, which I have never done before. But I did it this time because I am totally out of buying power now, and any decline in GDXJ will give me a margin call. So I'll just try my luck this time with a stop -- haven't used them for a long time and I want to have some fun now. :)
Dear Santa,
ReplyDeletePlease fill the gap down on GDXJ as a gift to David for Christmas.
PS: Cookies are on the table, rum is in the cabinet. Help yourself.
It isn't the H&S that I worry about.
ReplyDeleteIt's the simple psychological stuff. Trading range, overhead supply and the indication those are working at $8 with the gatekeeper/retrace.
The H&S just makes up the overhead parts.
Lots of stocks have overcome overhead or they would just stay down, right?
I'm not too worried, I've booked some profits (thanks for the fish Santa) and I have moved my stop to break even. I doubt it gaps down to my stop, so all is good in the world.
When there's news, there's never enough
ReplyDeleteThank you, Craig! May all your trending stocks continue to trend in the right direction!
ReplyDeleteGDXJ - There's more than one gap down. My question is, has the 11 yr PM rally finally come to an end?
ReplyDelete"My question is, has the 11 yr PM rally finally come to an end?"
ReplyDeleteCP -- has the growth rate of the US economy finally surpassed the growth rate of US government debt? The PM rally will continue until this happens.
david - i'm not being a wise ass with this but was the us economy growing faster than the growth rate of us govt debt in the 50s/60s? just curious why gold didn't skyrocket then.
ReplyDeleteLikely not. Read this:
ReplyDeletehttp://peterlbrandt.com/my-christmas-present-to-you-short-eurodollars/
Read the whole post, charts and final post for the year. Take it all in carefully. I'm more or less ignoring the political stuff, although I agree with a lot of it, especially the 'behind the barn' part. I don't blame Onixon, he can't do squat without a complicit congress, so they all are to blame. See his take on R's and D's. Bingo. I like his idea of a wealth tax.
The economic stuff (you know, Henny Penny) concerns me.
I'm hearing this type of thing from several sources, notably Peter Brandt and Jim Rogers.
I would be remiss if I didn't include Landry's call for resolution to the downside and doubt in a 'Euro Rescue'. When I add Brandt's euro call it leads me to thinking of ways of storing food and his bullish gold call.
I'm not going to let it gt in the way of a good time for Christmas. I might have one more rum than usual. Loooook put Shantaaa.
I think it was and we had gold backed currency back then, so one paced the other.
ReplyDeleteTOF, here is what I got from Wikipedia:
ReplyDelete"The U.S. debt/GDP ratio reached a maximum during World War II near the beginning of President Harry Truman's first presidential term. Public debt as a percentage of GDP fell rapidly in the post-WWII period, and reached a low in 1973 under President Richard Nixon."
That's why gold did not skyrocket prior to 1973. Besides, US was on a partial gold standard back then, which would suggest a totally different dynamics for the price of gold.
Besides, it is very possible that people start worrying about US government debt only when it approaches GDP. We are there right now AND according to CBO, we have 1T deficits per year as far as the eye can see. THIS is a worrisome situation, and until it is resolved, gold will keep going up.
ReplyDeleteThe other reason is in the 50's/60's we were ramping up Vietnam but not really paying for it and we had just come out of WWII as the sole world power with our industrial capacity not only intact, but in high gear.
ReplyDeleteIMO the reason Nixon took us off the gold standard was to pay for Vietnam (then 20 years long) in devalued currency because he couldn't very well tell the people he was going to raise their taxes to the moon while there was an oil crisis, a cold war, etc. Politicians, can't live with them and can't seem to kill them without some kind of legal issue....
But it wasn't long afterward that we had our first run up of gold and the big battle with inflation into the 80's. I think that was the point they figured out that exporting all our manufacturing jobs for cheap labor would change the dynamic and drive labor rates much lower.
That works up until it doesn't, which is right about now.
$RUT - RSI(7) is now 63.25, so we're getting close to overbought if you consider the "blue arrow" as pointing down(don't expect more than mid 60's in a downtrend). Which is why I was looking to enter TZA at $25.80 earlier today.
ReplyDelete