I can tell you fancy I can tell your plain
You give something up for everything you gain
Since every pleasure's got an edge of pain
Pay for your ticket and don't complain
Metals on deck. Wait for the right pitch, and swing for the fences.
FED currency swap - What better way to bail out Europe with a currency swap? First, swap cheap dollars for expensive euros, then swap back expensive dollars for cheap euros?
my apologies for the TT posting faux pas. Yeah, I looked "faux pas" up to make sure i was using it correctly. And make sure you read all my post with a mental heavy east texas accent.
http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/faux+pas faux pas [foh pah] noun, plural faux pas [foh pahz; Fr. foh pah] a slip or blunder in etiquette, manners, or conduct; an embarrassing social blunder or indiscretion.
on to trading and other things, no trades today, probably no trades tomorrow. Although, I would be interested in selling some cash secured puts on a bigger drop. I see the futures are up at the moment though.
for me, 1st up is JNJ but I have not been watching it lately. I have a stock alert set up at 62.50 I see we are way above that. JNJ would be a long term investment for the portfolio. like my AT&T shares. Sell puts to buy it, sell covered calls once it gets put to me.
speaking of a rally T has done nothing but rally since their deal with T mobile was killed. I wasn't expecting this, a stock that I own to rally this much. I think I'm gonna hold for a $31 print and the go out 2 or 3 months and sell an in the money call, either a 30 or 29 strike.
whoops, on the JNJ, i'm looking to sell out of the money 57.5 strike puts on one of those big market drop days. I really don't think that is going to happen any time soon though.
absent any big news or missile shots, I'm bullish for the next 6-8 weeks. but other than my JNJ and my beloved ferts (POT, MOS, CF), I'm not interested in adding any stock specific length, just ETF because I don't get so emotionally attached. You see what I wrote about the ferts, I should probably stay away from them for that very reason. That leaves me with SPY and SSO to go long.
My first buy level would be around SPY 122.50 which would be support starting with the Oct 4th low. I would use a fairly tight stop.
Sprott sounding desperate on Silver. In my opinion, stuff like this happens at the end of a bull run, not the beginning. Either way, if I were a silver producer, I would strongly question the motive of an investment guy telling me how to run my business to make him more money.
Unfortunately they conclude with the thought that this restriction in credit could cause a commodity collapse like we saw in 2008 / 2009. Don't know if I buy that as the economy is stronger now, so it's hard to see how oil could go back to under $50, but it does provide a logical explanation as to why the investment commodities like Gold which aren't required by industry are getting hit so hard.
Something to think about and could be setting up for a good buying opportunity when it is done.
CP, the ag trade is a hard one. Your choices are basically the fertilizers, the machinery guys, the seeds/chemicals, the processors and there's a bunch of niche guys like the Trimble's.
These stocks generally tend to be expensive, so you have to buy at the right time.
The fertilizers like MOS are one of the more direct ways to play, but is still not as simple as grains up = ferts up. A couple of years ago, grains up -> fertilizer prices up -> farmers buy less fertilizer -> fertilizer company profits down.
"Endeavour Silver Corp. (EDR:TSX; EXK:NYSE) Chairman and CEO Bradford Cooke said his company, which reported 858,738 oz of production in the third quarter and counts Sprott as an investor, has been putting excess cash in silver and gold on a short-term basis since 2008. "We are bullish on the market and recognize that it has annual cycles so we sometimes park some until the next quarter when the price might be higher unless there are other opportunity investments for the company," he said. Cooke noted that Endeavour usually sells all of its holdings by year-end for reporting purposes."
So maybe that's why gold and silver have been weak lately -- producers like Endeavour are selling their holdings by year end!
That's a nice rally in silver we are having now. $USD has also just broke down below the 80.50 support level it held between yesterday afternoon and this morning.
Strangely, gold is still in the red relative to yesterday's close. But hey, it is silver that's important, right? If silver is outperforming gold, then the risk is ON!
Yeah, it is strange David. And the gold miners themselves are up very nicely.
If I look at the 2 day chart comparing SLV and GLD, it could just be SLV has played catchup from yesterday's huge battering as they are both now down about 2.6% over the 2 days.
Take a look, folks, at the SVM chart. $6 has been a strong support since December 9. Time to buy when it clears the resistance at $6.5? Or time to buy now in the hopes that the $6 support holds?
SLV closed today 14% lower than its close on December 9, but SVM closed today almost exactly where it closed on December 9. The fact that SVM is not going down any longer despite the drop in SLV strongly suggests that its downtrend is over. So tomorrow I'll probably buy calls on SVM *unless* it will be below $6 by the time I wake up.
Incidentally, the AUMN chart ain't looking so bad either. SLV is now 4% below its close on December 14 but AUMN is now 3% above its close on December 14. Looks like the end of the downtrend here as well...
When I look at the GLD and SLV charts, I see a lot of people who are in at higher prices and who would be looking to sell on a bounce.
From a relative valuation perspective (because it is so hard to say what a commodity is really worth), Gold and Silver are still about 60% above most commodities (Copper, Nickel, Oil, Grains, Platinum) on a 2-year chart and over 100% above on a 4 year chart , so still relatively expensive.
I still think a lot of momentum type buyers are in the PM's as are those looking for safety and they should be shorted on strength. I made some money shorting gold over $1,800, and was looking for a retest to GLD $175 to short again, but it never got there and they dropped too fast.
Kass saying a 3-day rally is typical at after a reversal like today after a 3-month downtrend, so perhaps that will be the time.
The ultimate play would be to steal home on an (emotional) error from the likes of Dr. S, but I'll settle for a line-drive double.
ReplyDeletehttp://seekingalpha.com/article/316361-precious-metals-fundamentals-more-bullish-than-anytime-during-the-entire-bull-market?source=yahoo
ReplyDeleteCP- Kinda felt that way to me, which is why I added to MITK. If I'm gonna sit spend time doing this, sitting on my hands 24/7 isn't an option.
ReplyDeleteFED currency swap - What better way to bail out Europe with a currency swap? First, swap cheap dollars for expensive euros, then swap back expensive dollars for cheap euros?
ReplyDeleteSounds like fun, huh?
evening folks
ReplyDeletemy apologies for the TT posting faux pas. Yeah, I looked "faux pas" up to make sure i was using it correctly. And make sure you read all my post with a mental heavy east texas accent.
http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/faux+pas
faux pas [foh pah]
noun, plural faux pas [foh pahz; Fr. foh pah]
a slip or blunder in etiquette, manners, or conduct; an embarrassing social blunder or indiscretion.
on to trading and other things,
no trades today, probably no trades tomorrow. Although, I would be interested in selling some cash secured puts on a bigger drop. I see the futures are up at the moment though.
Puts in what Port?
ReplyDeletefor me, 1st up is JNJ but I have not been watching it lately. I have a stock alert set up at 62.50 I see we are way above that. JNJ would be a long term investment for the portfolio. like my AT&T shares. Sell puts to buy it, sell covered calls once it gets put to me.
ReplyDeletespeaking of a rally T has done nothing but rally since their deal with T mobile was killed. I wasn't expecting this, a stock that I own to rally this much. I think I'm gonna hold for a $31 print and the go out 2 or 3 months and sell an in the money call, either a 30 or 29 strike.
whoops, on the JNJ, i'm looking to sell out of the money 57.5 strike puts on one of those big market drop days. I really don't think that is going to happen any time soon though.
ReplyDeleteabsent any big news or missile shots, I'm bullish for the next 6-8 weeks. but other than my JNJ and my beloved ferts (POT, MOS, CF), I'm not interested in adding any stock specific length, just ETF because I don't get so emotionally attached. You see what I wrote about the ferts, I should probably stay away from them for that very reason. That leaves me with SPY and SSO to go long.
ReplyDeleteMy first buy level would be around SPY 122.50 which would be support starting with the Oct 4th low. I would use a fairly tight stop.
I'm off tomorrow and the day will be filled with lots of errands so i probably won't get a chance to do anything anyway. that's ok too.
ReplyDeleteSprott sounding desperate on Silver. In my opinion, stuff like this happens at the end of a bull run, not the beginning. Either way, if I were a silver producer, I would strongly question the motive of an investment guy telling me how to run my business to make him more money.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ibtimes.com/articles/271224/20111222/silver-precious-metals.htm
David,
ReplyDeletethe FT does a good job of explaining possibly why Gold and the other commodities are weakening here:
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/0c012fba-27cc-11e1-9433-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1hvmamWSf
Unfortunately they conclude with the thought that this restriction in credit could cause a commodity collapse like we saw in 2008 / 2009. Don't know if I buy that as the economy is stronger now, so it's hard to see how oil could go back to under $50, but it does provide a logical explanation as to why the investment commodities like Gold which aren't required by industry are getting hit so hard.
Something to think about and could be setting up for a good buying opportunity when it is done.
Silver Bulls - Yes, they've definitely had their butts handed to them.
ReplyDeletejjg and rja seem to have turned up, uga may be as well?
ReplyDeleteI really don't like ETF's though, MOS could be a good angle on the foodstuff commodities?
Opened a trading position in SLW @ 26.88...
ReplyDeleteback in BTX, will add more assuming we get a few more pull backs.
ReplyDeletehappy new year!
SLW off @ 27.16...
ReplyDeleteCP, the ag trade is a hard one. Your choices are basically the fertilizers, the machinery guys, the seeds/chemicals, the processors and there's a bunch of niche guys like the Trimble's.
ReplyDeleteThese stocks generally tend to be expensive, so you have to buy at the right time.
The fertilizers like MOS are one of the more direct ways to play, but is still not as simple as grains up = ferts up. A couple of years ago, grains up -> fertilizer prices up -> farmers buy less fertilizer -> fertilizer company profits down.
Damn- I left a stack of chips behind on that trade.
ReplyDeleteWNR - Looks "cheap" again...
ReplyDeleteWNR- Something seems strange here. Local gas prices are lower than they were when crude was about 80.
ReplyDeleteBB- Thanks for the Sprott link. Pretty interesting stuff.
ReplyDeleteKyle- How old is this BAC chick anyway? 16?
Mark - Yea, that's about right.
ReplyDelete"Sprott sounding desperate on Silver."
ReplyDeleteInteresting article, BB. Here is a quote from it:
"Endeavour Silver Corp. (EDR:TSX; EXK:NYSE) Chairman and CEO Bradford Cooke said his company, which reported 858,738 oz of production in the third quarter and counts Sprott as an investor, has been putting excess cash in silver and gold on a short-term basis since 2008. "We are bullish on the market and recognize that it has annual cycles so we sometimes park some until the next quarter when the price might be higher unless there are other opportunity investments for the company," he said. Cooke noted that Endeavour usually sells all of its holdings by year-end for reporting purposes."
So maybe that's why gold and silver have been weak lately -- producers like Endeavour are selling their holdings by year end!
Some silver pep talk.
ReplyDeletehttp://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2011/12/29/silvery-reversal/
SLV/GDXJ/AUMN are not giving up! :) Should we dare to hope that yesterday's washout was THE last one?
ReplyDeleteMaybe my purchase of SLV calls yesterday WILL turn out to be a good trade. :)
ReplyDeleteThat's a nice rally in silver we are having now. $USD has also just broke down below the 80.50 support level it held between yesterday afternoon and this morning.
ReplyDeleteStrangely, gold is still in the red relative to yesterday's close. But hey, it is silver that's important, right? If silver is outperforming gold, then the risk is ON!
"maybe that's why gold and silver have been weak lately -- producers like Endeavour are selling their holdings by year end! "
ReplyDeleteOr perhaps the market has been anticipating producers to sell their holdings?
The dollar/euro has been a factor as well.
I think silver needs to lead gold higher.
ReplyDeleteYeah, it is strange David. And the gold miners themselves are up very nicely.
ReplyDeleteIf I look at the 2 day chart comparing SLV and GLD, it could just be SLV has played catchup from yesterday's huge battering as they are both now down about 2.6% over the 2 days.
Take a look, folks, at the SVM chart. $6 has been a strong support since December 9. Time to buy when it clears the resistance at $6.5? Or time to buy now in the hopes that the $6 support holds?
ReplyDeleteSLV closed today 14% lower than its close on December 9, but SVM closed today almost exactly where it closed on December 9. The fact that SVM is not going down any longer despite the drop in SLV strongly suggests that its downtrend is over. So tomorrow I'll probably buy calls on SVM *unless* it will be below $6 by the time I wake up.
Incidentally, the AUMN chart ain't looking so bad either. SLV is now 4% below its close on December 14 but AUMN is now 3% above its close on December 14. Looks like the end of the downtrend here as well...
ReplyDeleteWhen I look at the GLD and SLV charts, I see a lot of people who are in at higher prices and who would be looking to sell on a bounce.
ReplyDeleteFrom a relative valuation perspective (because it is so hard to say what a commodity is really worth), Gold and Silver are still about 60% above most commodities (Copper, Nickel, Oil, Grains, Platinum) on a 2-year chart and over 100% above on a 4 year chart , so still relatively expensive.
I still think a lot of momentum type buyers are in the PM's as are those looking for safety and they should be shorted on strength. I made some money shorting gold over $1,800, and was looking for a retest to GLD $175 to short again, but it never got there and they dropped too fast.
Kass saying a 3-day rally is typical at after a reversal like today after a 3-month downtrend, so perhaps that will be the time.