im convinced that most technical analysis is garbage...the only things that have worked for me are support / resistance levels (eg cstr around 39, mitk around 6.5 (old highs before it broke out)) and trading around the 200 dma levels. if i find a stock i like and see any obvious pt of support and wait to buy until then 80% of the time it will be a really good trade.
SPY RSI(7) popped up through 30 on Nov 28th, this indicator seems to be working just fine, and will once again if we don't have a bad week this week...
It didn't fall into double or triple accumulation alert though...
BNN (the Canadian CNBC) has a show where they get analysts to talk about stocks and a local father and son team track their picks very explicitly so you can go back and see how they've done. The thing I always laugh about the the TA guys is they'll look at a charts and say things like "this was an obvious retest, so the point to buy was here 6 months ago" and of course the stock has gone up wince then, put when you look at their realtime recommendations, it's amazing how many time sthey will be so completely wrong and often horribly so (saying to buy a stock as it topticks it's range for the year).
If you can make TA work for you, all the power to you - I'm onboard for making money any way you can!
Re Twiggs, he says if the S&P gets over 1300, it will signal an advance. What about the 200 points from 1100 to 1300 that 2nd caught most of - guess they don't count.
TA - You have to remember also, there are rules concerning stops that traders adhere to and they'll tell you flat out that entering a trade they may get stopped out several times.
I run into trouble trying to do this, can't seem to stop myself out with small losses b/c I have such a strong feeling about where the price should be, so I even elect to ignore the TA sometimes and get myself in before the bottom or out after the top.
So this time around I paid close attention to SVM's RSI's and knew it had bottomed around $7.30, thus didn't sell the bottom. The reason I didn't sell the recent RSI(7) top was because that would've represented a loss from my basis price, but if I'd have sold, I would've been able to reload lower (had I trusted the RSI signals completely, I would've done this). Turns out the RSI's worked just fine once again(so far, LOL!).
"There are at least a dozen Buy Alerts for the Cara 100 right now. Only one in the DZ."
Obviously RSI's won't work for you if you don't use them or if you don't follow all the rules religiously. Also consider your level of risk, do you enter a trade once a year and thus trade double RSI alerts, or once every three years and only trade triple RSI alerts?
If you trade monthly, the RSI(7) seems to work pretty well and you can even use these indicators intraday but you've got to be damn quick, something I most certainly am not (if only I were a computer!).
CSTR - Take this one for instance, I had been looking at this chart and noticed the RSI(7) was nearly 80 in mid Oct. when the price was in the $53's, which is why I wasn't buying there....
took the day off and I'm just now getting a chance to look at the markets
team - kids keep you busy. I took the kids to school and daycare today to give the wife a break. For us, mornings are harder than the afternoons it seems. I like being out the door on my way to work around 6:30 am usually. All that being said, I wouldn't change a thing, except to try and be more financially independent.
I think TA works when you apply the rules. My CF for exeample, its ok to take a trade, some setups closer to support/resistance are much better. But I'm just an average guy and there are lots of others just like me. If I'm using TA, then I should have put in stops on CF and I didn't. After looking at the charts, the 140 area would have been a good buy area with a stop around the 137 area. I got too married to the position. Now I'm going to use some tight stops on most of what I have left and just keep 3 of my Jan calls.
What I usually do, and I start off that way with CF, is I just buy 2 or 3 calls 2 or 3 months out and the calls serve as my stop loss. I can't loose any more than what I pay for them.
and BB appears to be mostly a value guy. I have some of those in the account too and I don't worry too much about the day to day vibrations. I still don't mind selling out of the money calls on those positions though. Or JNJ, I sold short some cash secured puts last week or the week before. I did use support/resistance to make that decision but its the value play that has me interested in the stock.
port > yeah man it's crazy. the little guy is incredibly fussy the past day or so and we're just trying to get caught up on sleep.
Mark > OPEN today is the reason I didn't sell. I had a feeling a move like this was coming. I'm contemplating holding longer term but I initially was thinking it could run to $41-$42. If it gets there this week then that's a 25% return in 2 weeks so it will be hard to pass that up. However, I think the markets might rally hard from here...especially if the S&P can clear the 200 DMA here. If Europe worries subside then all of the worrywarts will hop back on board and drive us back up to the 1,350 area.
Concerning RSI, I think this link does a fine job of explaining how to use them although I can't speak for the particular levels given in the examples, the concept is there:
CP - my main issue with RSI is that the stocks that are in clear upswings often stay in the "overbought" range for a while...and the change in the stock price between the time it first gets into the overbought range and when it peaks could be huge. I have found that buying something with a RSI(7) less than 10 is just about always a good trade.
I bought 15k shs of XWES at $2.8 and have sold off half of them today at $3. I primarily wanted to see how the stock withstood the selling and it completely absorbed it. I think this is a sign that the stock is going back up, hopefully back to the $4 range once again.
TOF - "the change in the stock price between the time it first gets into the overbought range and when it peaks could be huge. "
Yes, which is why, I think, it's important to follow the rules religiously an not sell just b/c the RSI is in distribution zone, but wait for the sell alert.
Seriously though, how else does one identify an exact bottom or top, it's the segment in between that traders are attempting to ride. Bottoming and topping really are a process, where price can move considerably more than anticipated, being on the right side of the trade and having the discipline to exit when you're wrong is so important, I bet this is where retail traders fail, not taking losses quickly, getting discouraged and selling the bottom, etc., LOL.
If I were an investor (long horizon), I might consider blood in the streets as a triple rsi buy alert, risk there certainly is lower than a single rsi sell alert.
Of course I don't consider rsi the be-all end-all replacement for common sense but I'll tell ya, it has saved my bacon when I paid attention to it and when I've ignored it I typically pay a heavier opportunity cost than I'd imagined.
Have you guys seen the extent to which Italian, Spanish and French spreads over German bunds collapsed over the past few days and today in particular? The Big Boyz believe that Europe is moving in the right direction...
CP, the other way to identify when to buy or sell is based on stock price relative to valuation.
Sure, it's not exact and you can be very early or late, but I find if you buy a good company at a cheap valuation with an improving business, you will almost always have a good profit in a few months to a few years.
The classic example of this is, of course, Warren Buffet - bet he never used an RSI in his life!
BB - Yes absolutely, that's one of the common sense factors (like due diligence) I was referring to earlier. Then examine the various aspects of the chart to determine your entry and exit points RSI's, support levels, bollingers, etc., etc.
For instance in the case of SVM, I'm not disappointed in my position based upon the valuation or fundamentals as I understand them, and now I have an positive RSI signal, which supports my thesis of hanging in there and perhaps adding.
Perhaps I shouldn't say this for sake of shooting myself in the foot, but I'm quite confident this one will reach $12 again prior to the day I pass away. ;)
"consider today's pullback at the 200-day line to be purely coincidental"
Gosh, you mean a few pessimists amongst the crowd sold the 200SMA cross, creating a little price wobble?
I wouldn't have guessed that might happen! ;)
Okay, so maybe we're setting up for a sell the news event... Do ya think maybe RSI(7) turns down through 70 that day? Well, it's got to rise above 70 before it can fall back through 70, right?
200 DMA and support / resistance lines seem to work the best for me....otherwise i prefer to focus on fundamentals and/or the story surrounding a company.
Think the odds are still substantially to the upside.
I really can't see the Europeans letting things fall apart. They may pull yet another meeting this week where they underdeliver, but I don't see that as stopping the bus which is taking them to where they need to go.
That being the case, I go with the same story: valuations are cheap, the economy is improving, sentiment is poor, hedge funds are underinvested and a lot are behind their benchmarks - just need a fuse for this all to take flight.
You look at MET at a little more than half of book, P/E of under 7 and looking to return cash to shareholders. We get a 25% bump here and it still cheap by it's traditional valuations - just need a bit of confidence.
2nd or anyone else, have you had success trading BC's system? I think it doesn't work well in a trending market, but might in a back and forth one like we have now.
I'm having difficulty with the concept of rolling over, it seems we're on the verge of a deal in Europe (Okay we've been there done that for 3 years now!).
Hey CP here is a screen you may like. Getting technical and all. Simple inverse head and shoulder patterns. I love all the toys on FINVIZ. http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=211&s=ta_p_headandshouldersinv
sold my 200 shares of CF finally. I thought I was putting in a stop and I guess I accidentally put in a sell at market order around 142 ish. I lost $2397 on that trade.
I put a trailing stop on my 7 DEC 150 calls on cf. Those traded and I lost $4354 on that trade. It turns out that I did sell 1 a few days ago for a profit.
I still have 2 DEC 170 CF calls that are pretty much worthless to the tune of $2169.
ANd I still have 3 Jan160 calls that cost about 1315 and are worth about $880.00.
Hmm, so more or less, losses of $8920 on the stock and Dec calls, and unrealized so far for Jan of $435.
It's a good thing I didn't get bullish. Bad bad choice. I could have picked almost anything else but CF. I'll have to remember Mark's comment about just picking an ETF when I get bullish. I do a much better job of cutting my losses on short term loosers on ETF's.
Long term all without stops EPM - this is my buyout candidate. FCX - no stops on this one but I do like selling covered calls against it. TBT - I think team was against this one and it looks like I sprung a hole in David's money pump when I bought my 650 trading shares. I'll put on a trailing stop when it crosses $22.00. GMO - highly speculative position but also a positive buyout candidate. SVM - BC likes this one so I'm holding out for $12 +. I'm also short DEC 7 puts at .45. HES - I'll sell calls till it gets called away. T - this is my bond fund. HERO - another potential buyout candidate. CSCO - I'm waiting for a bread above $20 then I'll start selling covered calls. I bought this on the way down and I decided not to sell after watching INTC. Of course it hasn't recovered near as fast as INTC.
i wish i had a software where I could keep track of all these along with the covered calls and cash secured puts that I've sold. I've already forgotten if I've sold calls on T twice or 3 times. FCX - I've sold calls twice on thise on I know.
SVM - I bought those by selling puts then I sold calls, bot some extra shares and sold them.
I have some other stuff from Mad's trade alert program but I stopped mentioning those.
My coworker's dad used to work for Hero. He says their equipment is old and rusty and they have a lot of debt. I've made good money trading in and out of them but I think the mo jo is gone unless we get another bull market. Then peeps start specking on the cheaper stocks.
One thing to keep in mind, I probably swing a much smaller bat than you guys. I had more money invested in 200 shares of CF than any of the positions mentioned above. WHen I buy something like GMO or HERO, I but till it feels uncomfortable then I stop.
EPM - that's one you should ask your buddy about. My friend swears it should be a $12 stock and that's all the due diligence I do on it but I trust him. I had 4500 shares which I considered way to risky for a name like this so I sold 1500 shares at a loss just to get my position to a level I was comfortable with. Over the last year I've made a lot of money off of this stock starting around 3.50 share trading in and out. Now I'm just holding till I get a pop to $9.00 where I'll sell some covered calls.
So I don't know if you guys care seeing my trades or not. I was modeling it off of David's post. The blog works like a diary, helps me get me thoughts together on what I did, whether I like the trade or not, any critique anyone may have.
Sometimes I post things that act as a reminder for me at work. I can go back to the previous night to see what I was thinking.
I was reading Nadeem Walayat's free newsletter, The Market Oracle from last Friday and he was basically saying why you guys have been saying. The euro leaders will do what is necessary to save the euro which means print more money. He shows that below DOW 10,950 is the accumulation zone. Following is a clip from his newsletter last Friday.
"All that matters is this - No matter what happens to the Euro, its collapse threatens a collapse of the worlds banking system therefore it will not be allowed to collapse, which means the worlds reserve currency will be printed in the trillions to mop up the flood of euro's in exchange for dollars thus ensuring there is no collapse in the euro for which we have just had a small taste of what would come to pass, its simple - print dollars and all other currencies for euros which means all currencies collapse together but at a shallower pace with the mainstream press pumping out propaganda that the Euro has actually risen when in fact they have all fallen sharply together, now you tell me if all this will not be highly inflationary?"
Port I like ur posts man. Most trade posts r a good way to rationalize ur own trade. I think I'm the only one here...well maybe David too, that only trades a handful of things at a time. I tend to have a days to several months time window so for me it's too hard to follow everything closely. I think i have a thick skull uncap able of grasping too many things at once.
Another of my mining companies getting taken out today. Quadra FNX (QADMF) getting sold to Polish Copper company KGHM Polska for $3.5 billion. I didn't even know Poland had a copper company.
That's #2 of my 5 copper holdings in the last month.
The best one I have now I think is Copper Mountain Mining (CUM-T, CPPMF). They are re-opening a mine in British Columbia that's been around for 70+ years, but was closed due to the low Copper prices prior to this decade. It's a low grade mine, but a huge deposit and they've got a really good partner in Japanese company Mitsubishi and the stock is down over 40% from it's recent high and started shipping production in Q4. Would not be surprised to see them get taken out either. These small/mid mining companies go in cycles and we are now in the buyout part of the cycle, so really good money can be made here if you get the right ones.
port - Printing yes, but that's hard to justify when the markets are too high? Or maybe it's justifiable in some other terms and the market is anticipating it? Oil's quite high, that makes it hard to justify printing but for some reason gasoline is down...
TCK is one my heartbreakers. Bought it at $8 on it's way down in the fall of 2008, watched it go down to $3 and was so happy went it went back to $11,I dumped it at $11 and then watched it promptly climb all the way back to $40.
That's not to say there aren't a host of other equities that aren't oversold, CSTR is trading at 7.62x FCF seems cheap, makes SVM at 22x FCF seem expensive.
I'll admit to not being much of a bean counter though... maybe these prices are fair in a longer time horizon?
did a couple of trades this morning. sold my open at 38.4 from the other day (33.6 i think). i really like this going to 42 but i think cstr is ready to move to 49 so i soldit and bought cstr at 41.7.
i also rented incendies from redbox the other day. one of the best movies I've seen in a while
For being flat I have a lot of red on my watch list. Since I have few financials i guess they are up to balance out the degenerate growth stocks I watch.
Finally, AUMN is outperforming GDXJ today! The StatArb algorithms are taking care of mean reversion today, letting the recently "forgotten" stocks catch up...
I decided to reset my TBT money pump to lower levels, since the TBT range seems to have moved down. So I lowered my first sell limit to $20, with the other sell limits being higher in $0.50 increments.
Who is selling AUMN at these levels? No investor in the right mind would do that. All traders probably sold this morning. So it only leaves hedge funds doing their dirty business, shorting AUMN while going long other stocks... So when they start unwinding this trade, AUMN will zoom as if there is no tomorrow...
Well, at least AUMN outperformed both GDXJ and S&P today. In the past, days of underperformance would be grouped together, and then days of overperformance would be grouped as well.
Mark- What I mean is strap in.
ReplyDeleteMET just released guidance for 2012, EPS $4.80 to $5.20, book value ex AOCI $50 to $51.15 per share, ROE 10.0% to 10.6%.
ReplyDeletePlus not the big headling risk of the banks.
Stock trading at $32.80, room for substantial share price appreciation.
TZA hits new lows pre-market.
ReplyDeleteim convinced that most technical analysis is garbage...the only things that have worked for me are support / resistance levels (eg cstr around 39, mitk around 6.5 (old highs before it broke out)) and trading around the 200 dma levels. if i find a stock i like and see any obvious pt of support and wait to buy until then 80% of the time it will be a really good trade.
ReplyDeletei also think that paying attn to macro econ stuff is for the most part a waste of ur time and energy.
ReplyDeletehttp://joefahmy.com/2011/12/02/so-you-want-to-be-a-trader/
ReplyDeleteSPY RSI(7) popped up through 30 on Nov 28th, this indicator seems to be working just fine, and will once again if we don't have a bad week this week...
ReplyDeleteIt didn't fall into double or triple accumulation alert though...
BNN (the Canadian CNBC) has a show where they get analysts to talk about stocks and a local father and son team track their picks very explicitly so you can go back and see how they've done. The thing I always laugh about the the TA guys is they'll look at a charts and say things like "this was an obvious retest, so the point to buy was here 6 months ago" and of course the stock has gone up wince then, put when you look at their realtime recommendations, it's amazing how many time sthey will be so completely wrong and often horribly so (saying to buy a stock as it topticks it's range for the year).
ReplyDeleteIf you can make TA work for you, all the power to you - I'm onboard for making money any way you can!
Re Twiggs, he says if the S&P gets over 1300, it will signal an advance. What about the 200 points from 1100 to 1300 that 2nd caught most of - guess they don't count.
Nice move for MET.
ReplyDeleteSPY RSI(7) popped down through 70 on Oct 25th, the next couple of days would've been a good chance to get out and prepare for a reload....
ReplyDeleteI get the impression nobody watches the RSI's...
CP- There are at least a dozen Buy Alerts for the Cara 100 right now. Only one in the DZ.
ReplyDeleteTA - You have to remember also, there are rules concerning stops that traders adhere to and they'll tell you flat out that entering a trade they may get stopped out several times.
ReplyDeleteI run into trouble trying to do this, can't seem to stop myself out with small losses b/c I have such a strong feeling about where the price should be, so I even elect to ignore the TA sometimes and get myself in before the bottom or out after the top.
So this time around I paid close attention to SVM's RSI's and knew it had bottomed around $7.30, thus didn't sell the bottom. The reason I didn't sell the recent RSI(7) top was because that would've represented a loss from my basis price, but if I'd have sold, I would've been able to reload lower (had I trusted the RSI signals completely, I would've done this). Turns out the RSI's worked just fine once again(so far, LOL!).
"There are at least a dozen Buy Alerts for the Cara 100 right now. Only one in the DZ."
ReplyDeleteObviously RSI's won't work for you if you don't use them or if you don't follow all the rules religiously. Also consider your level of risk, do you enter a trade once a year and thus trade double RSI alerts, or once every three years and only trade triple RSI alerts?
If you trade monthly, the RSI(7) seems to work pretty well and you can even use these indicators intraday but you've got to be damn quick, something I most certainly am not (if only I were a computer!).
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/nov-ism-services-gauge-shows-slowing-growth-2011-12-05?link=MW_home_latest_news
ReplyDeleteCSTR - Take this one for instance, I had been looking at this chart and noticed the RSI(7) was nearly 80 in mid Oct. when the price was in the $53's, which is why I wasn't buying there....
ReplyDeleteRSI's kept me out of trouble.
CSTR - CP Good Example. Going Long CSTR w/ 39.75 stop would be a play here...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.screencast.com/t/u74Hyqqq3BWJ
took the day off and I'm just now getting a chance to look at the markets
ReplyDeleteteam - kids keep you busy. I took the kids to school and daycare today to give the wife a break. For us, mornings are harder than the afternoons it seems. I like being out the door on my way to work around 6:30 am usually. All that being said, I wouldn't change a thing, except to try and be more financially independent.
I think TA works when you apply the rules. My CF for exeample, its ok to take a trade, some setups closer to support/resistance are much better. But I'm just an average guy and there are lots of others just like me. If I'm using TA, then I should have put in stops on CF and I didn't. After looking at the charts, the 140 area would have been a good buy area with a stop around the 137 area. I got too married to the position. Now I'm going to use some tight stops on most of what I have left and just keep 3 of my Jan calls.
What I usually do, and I start off that way with CF, is I just buy 2 or 3 calls 2 or 3 months out and the calls serve as my stop loss. I can't loose any more than what I pay for them.
and BB appears to be mostly a value guy. I have some of those in the account too and I don't worry too much about the day to day vibrations. I still don't mind selling out of the money calls on those positions though. Or JNJ, I sold short some cash secured puts last week or the week before. I did use support/resistance to make that decision but its the value play that has me interested in the stock.
ReplyDeleteoff to run errands. Good luck today.
port > yeah man it's crazy. the little guy is incredibly fussy the past day or so and we're just trying to get caught up on sleep.
ReplyDeleteMark > OPEN today is the reason I didn't sell. I had a feeling a move like this was coming. I'm contemplating holding longer term but I initially was thinking it could run to $41-$42. If it gets there this week then that's a 25% return in 2 weeks so it will be hard to pass that up. However, I think the markets might rally hard from here...especially if the S&P can clear the 200 DMA here. If Europe worries subside then all of the worrywarts will hop back on board and drive us back up to the 1,350 area.
I'm just getting the sense that NOIZ is building up for a big run higher. it seems like the pressure is mounting.
ReplyDeleteConcerning RSI, I think this link does a fine job of explaining how to use them although I can't speak for the particular levels given in the examples, the concept is there:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.incrediblecharts.com/indicators/rsi_relative_strength_index.php
CP - my main issue with RSI is that the stocks that are in clear upswings often stay in the "overbought" range for a while...and the change in the stock price between the time it first gets into the overbought range and when it peaks could be huge. I have found that buying something with a RSI(7) less than 10 is just about always a good trade.
ReplyDeleteI bought 15k shs of XWES at $2.8 and have sold off half of them today at $3. I primarily wanted to see how the stock withstood the selling and it completely absorbed it. I think this is a sign that the stock is going back up, hopefully back to the $4 range once again.
ReplyDeleteNOIZ looks like it might break out today
ReplyDeleteTOF - "the change in the stock price between the time it first gets into the overbought range and when it peaks could be huge. "
ReplyDeleteYes, which is why, I think, it's important to follow the rules religiously an not sell just b/c the RSI is in distribution zone, but wait for the sell alert.
Seriously though, how else does one identify an exact bottom or top, it's the segment in between that traders are attempting to ride. Bottoming and topping really are a process, where price can move considerably more than anticipated, being on the right side of the trade and having the discipline to exit when you're wrong is so important, I bet this is where retail traders fail, not taking losses quickly, getting discouraged and selling the bottom, etc., LOL.
If I were an investor (long horizon), I might consider blood in the streets as a triple rsi buy alert, risk there certainly is lower than a single rsi sell alert.
Of course I don't consider rsi the be-all end-all replacement for common sense but I'll tell ya, it has saved my bacon when I paid attention to it and when I've ignored it I typically pay a heavier opportunity cost than I'd imagined.
Mark -- do you feel like reloading AUMN here? Just to make sure the recent decline stops here? :)
ReplyDeleteDavid- Yep.
ReplyDeleteCOF might be an interesting short here.
ReplyDeleteHave you guys seen the extent to which Italian, Spanish and French spreads over German bunds collapsed over the past few days and today in particular? The Big Boyz believe that Europe is moving in the right direction...
ReplyDeleteif you're not long i would use this dip to get it.
ReplyDeleteCP, the other way to identify when to buy or sell is based on stock price relative to valuation.
ReplyDeleteSure, it's not exact and you can be very early or late, but I find if you buy a good company at a cheap valuation with an improving business, you will almost always have a good profit in a few months to a few years.
The classic example of this is, of course, Warren Buffet - bet he never used an RSI in his life!
I'm sure those who disregard technical analysis will consider today's pullback at the 200-day line to be purely coincidental
ReplyDeleteWow I broke through! Now you can all ignore my T+A posts in real time.
ReplyDeleteBB - Yes absolutely, that's one of the common sense factors (like due diligence) I was referring to earlier. Then examine the various aspects of the chart to determine your entry and exit points RSI's, support levels, bollingers, etc., etc.
ReplyDeleteFor instance in the case of SVM, I'm not disappointed in my position based upon the valuation or fundamentals as I understand them, and now I have an positive RSI signal, which supports my thesis of hanging in there and perhaps adding.
Perhaps I shouldn't say this for sake of shooting myself in the foot, but I'm quite confident this one will reach $12 again prior to the day I pass away. ;)
I never ignore T&A. Shame on you.
ReplyDelete"consider today's pullback at the 200-day line to be purely coincidental"
ReplyDeleteGosh, you mean a few pessimists amongst the crowd sold the 200SMA cross, creating a little price wobble?
I wouldn't have guessed that might happen! ;)
Okay, so maybe we're setting up for a sell the news event... Do ya think maybe RSI(7) turns down through 70 that day? Well, it's got to rise above 70 before it can fall back through 70, right?
200 DMA and support / resistance lines seem to work the best for me....otherwise i prefer to focus on fundamentals and/or the story surrounding a company.
ReplyDeleteMark, sometimes we can't determine if you're seriously interested in RB's T&A or just teasing him... ;)
ReplyDeleteMy posts about T&A! Not that I'm not built like a Brickhoue. Shakha dow Shakha dow Shakha noww noww.
ReplyDeleteMark, sometimes we can't determine if you're seriously interested in RB's T&A or just teasing him... ;)
ReplyDeleteBachman recommends evacuating US Iran embassy, huh?
ReplyDelete$USD - Took off to the upside today again, this time at 1:30pm, and the story of Europe S&P credit downgrades hit the wires about his time.
ReplyDeleteCP- I never joke about T&A...Male or female. Besides, RB is kinda cute.
ReplyDeleteI hate to say it guys, but I see only two options here. Roll over or we shoot WAY up.
Sent MOG an email seeking for guidance :)
ReplyDeleteMark,
ReplyDeleteThink the odds are still substantially to the upside.
I really can't see the Europeans letting things fall apart. They may pull yet another meeting this week where they underdeliver, but I don't see that as stopping the bus which is taking them to where they need to go.
That being the case, I go with the same story: valuations are cheap, the economy is improving, sentiment is poor, hedge funds are underinvested and a lot are behind their benchmarks - just need a fuse for this all to take flight.
You look at MET at a little more than half of book, P/E of under 7 and looking to return cash to shareholders. We get a 25% bump here and it still cheap by it's traditional valuations - just need a bit of confidence.
2nd or anyone else, have you had success trading BC's system? I think it doesn't work well in a trending market, but might in a back and forth one like we have now.
ReplyDeleteI'm having difficulty with the concept of rolling over, it seems we're on the verge of a deal in Europe (Okay we've been there done that for 3 years now!).
ReplyDeleteAnyway, here's what Clive Maund has to say:
http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=67
Hey CP here is a screen you may like. Getting technical and all. Simple inverse head and shoulder patterns. I love all the toys on FINVIZ.
ReplyDeletehttp://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=211&s=ta_p_headandshouldersinv
FTWR - Up +93% today...?
ReplyDeleteYes and it doesn't even give a buy signal on my rsi 14. 8 to 24.5.
ReplyDeleteFTWR- Holly cow. It's still going BK. Maybe a sum of the parts?
ReplyDeleteMaybe they invented a perpetual motion fibertower.
ReplyDeleteRB - Wow, thx, I didn't know finviz could do that, hmmm...
ReplyDeleteevening gents,
ReplyDeletestopped out of some stuff today
sold my last aapl jan 380 call at $27.00.
stopped out of 300 shares sso at 46.57. I'm all out of SSO shares now.
sold 2 hes dec 65 strike covered calls for .56
port- Can you give us (me) a snap shot of what you are holding? I have a hard time following your positions.
ReplyDeleteI'll give you mine. Cash.
sold my 200 shares of CF finally. I thought I was putting in a stop and I guess I accidentally put in a sell at market order around 142 ish. I lost $2397 on that trade.
ReplyDeleteI put a trailing stop on my 7 DEC 150 calls on cf. Those traded and I lost $4354 on that trade. It turns out that I did sell 1 a few days ago for a profit.
I still have 2 DEC 170 CF calls that are pretty much worthless to the tune of $2169.
ANd I still have 3 Jan160 calls that cost about 1315 and are worth about $880.00.
Hmm, so more or less, losses of $8920 on the stock and Dec calls, and unrealized so far for Jan of $435.
It's a good thing I didn't get bullish. Bad bad choice. I could have picked almost anything else but CF. I'll have to remember Mark's comment about just picking an ETF when I get bullish. I do a much better job of cutting my losses on short term loosers on ETF's.
Long term all without stops
ReplyDeleteEPM - this is my buyout candidate.
FCX - no stops on this one but I do like selling covered calls against it.
TBT - I think team was against this one and it looks like I sprung a hole in David's money pump when I bought my 650 trading shares. I'll put on a trailing stop when it crosses $22.00.
GMO - highly speculative position but also a positive buyout candidate.
SVM - BC likes this one so I'm holding out for $12 +. I'm also short DEC 7 puts at .45.
HES - I'll sell calls till it gets called away.
T - this is my bond fund.
HERO - another potential buyout candidate.
CSCO - I'm waiting for a bread above $20 then I'll start selling covered calls. I bought this on the way down and I decided not to sell after watching INTC. Of course it hasn't recovered near as fast as INTC.
Port!- Thanks. I like HERO also. Any inside baseball you'd like to share?
ReplyDeleteMOG is also a huge fan of NFX mang. Tried to get in today...FWIW.
i wish i had a software where I could keep track of all these along with the covered calls and cash secured puts that I've sold. I've already forgotten if I've sold calls on T twice or 3 times. FCX - I've sold calls twice on thise on I know.
ReplyDeleteSVM - I bought those by selling puts then I sold calls, bot some extra shares and sold them.
I have some other stuff from Mad's trade alert program but I stopped mentioning those.
My coworker's dad used to work for Hero. He says their equipment is old and rusty and they have a lot of debt. I've made good money trading in and out of them but I think the mo jo is gone unless we get another bull market. Then peeps start specking on the cheaper stocks.
ReplyDeleteOne thing to keep in mind, I probably swing a much smaller bat than you guys. I had more money invested in 200 shares of CF than any of the positions mentioned above. WHen I buy something like GMO or HERO, I but till it feels uncomfortable then I stop.
EPM - that's one you should ask your buddy about. My friend swears it should be a $12 stock and that's all the due diligence I do on it but I trust him. I had 4500 shares which I considered way to risky for a name like this so I sold 1500 shares at a loss just to get my position to a level I was comfortable with. Over the last year I've made a lot of money off of this stock starting around 3.50 share trading in and out. Now I'm just holding till I get a pop to $9.00 where I'll sell some covered calls.
So see, I have some stuff like BB and team.
So I don't know if you guys care seeing my trades or not. I was modeling it off of David's post. The blog works like a diary, helps me get me thoughts together on what I did, whether I like the trade or not, any critique anyone may have.
ReplyDeleteSometimes I post things that act as a reminder for me at work. I can go back to the previous night to see what I was thinking.
I was reading Nadeem Walayat's free newsletter, The Market Oracle from last Friday and he was basically saying why you guys have been saying. The euro leaders will do what is necessary to save the euro which means print more money. He shows that below DOW 10,950 is the accumulation zone. Following is a clip from his newsletter last Friday.
ReplyDelete"All that matters is this - No matter what happens to the Euro, its collapse threatens a collapse of the worlds banking system therefore it will not be allowed to collapse, which means the worlds reserve currency will be printed in the trillions to mop up the flood of euro's in exchange for dollars thus ensuring there is no collapse in the euro for which we have just had a small taste of what would come to pass, its simple - print dollars and all other currencies for euros which means all currencies collapse together but at a shallower pace with the mainstream press pumping out propaganda that the Euro has actually risen when in fact they have all fallen sharply together, now you tell me if all this will not be highly inflationary?"
S&P - Have you guys got an RSI(7) on this thing?
ReplyDeletePort I like ur posts man. Most trade posts r a good way to rationalize ur own trade. I think I'm the only one here...well maybe David too, that only trades a handful of things at a time. I tend to have a days to several months time window so for me it's too hard to follow everything closely. I think i have a thick skull uncap able of grasping too many things at once.
ReplyDeleteAnother of my mining companies getting taken out today. Quadra FNX (QADMF) getting sold to Polish Copper company KGHM Polska for $3.5 billion. I didn't even know Poland had a copper company.
ReplyDeleteThat's #2 of my 5 copper holdings in the last month.
The best one I have now I think is Copper Mountain Mining (CUM-T, CPPMF). They are re-opening a mine in British Columbia that's been around for 70+ years, but was closed due to the low Copper prices prior to this decade. It's a low grade mine, but a huge deposit and they've got a really good partner in Japanese company Mitsubishi and the stock is down over 40% from it's recent high and started shipping production in Q4. Would not be surprised to see them get taken out either. These small/mid mining companies go in cycles and we are now in the buyout part of the cycle, so really good money can be made here if you get the right ones.
port - Printing yes, but that's hard to justify when the markets are too high? Or maybe it's justifiable in some other terms and the market is anticipating it? Oil's quite high, that makes it hard to justify printing but for some reason gasoline is down...
ReplyDelete"That's #2 of my 5 copper holdings in the last month."
ReplyDeleteSeems the message is someone thinks copper is underpriced?
Interesting tidbit of data from BMO research:
ReplyDeleteEquity hedge funds are off 18 percent for the year through November while the S&P is flat,
according to Hedge Fund Research.
Maybe explains why people are so fast to jump on rally's as they try to play catchup.
Well, either Copper or Copper Equities are underpriced or perhaps both.
ReplyDeletePerhaps both... Pick anything metal, and it's oversold. Remember TCK?
ReplyDeleteTCK is one my heartbreakers. Bought it at $8 on it's way down in the fall of 2008, watched it go down to $3 and was so happy went it went back to $11,I dumped it at $11 and then watched it promptly climb all the way back to $40.
ReplyDeleteYeah, and notice FCX didn't stay at $30 for long...
ReplyDeleteThat's not to say there aren't a host of other equities that aren't oversold, CSTR is trading at 7.62x FCF seems cheap, makes SVM at 22x FCF seem expensive.
ReplyDeleteI'll admit to not being much of a bean counter though... maybe these prices are fair in a longer time horizon?
did a couple of trades this morning. sold my open at 38.4 from the other day (33.6 i think). i really like this going to 42 but i think cstr is ready to move to 49 so i soldit and bought cstr at 41.7.
ReplyDeletei also rented incendies from redbox the other day. one of the best movies I've seen in a while
For being flat I have a lot of red on my watch list. Since I have few financials i guess they are up to balance out the degenerate growth stocks I watch.
ReplyDeleteMeli the only thing moving. Breaking out of box with decent volume.
ReplyDeleteFinally, AUMN is outperforming GDXJ today! The StatArb algorithms are taking care of mean reversion today, letting the recently "forgotten" stocks catch up...
ReplyDeleteI decided to reset my TBT money pump to lower levels, since the TBT range seems to have moved down. So I lowered my first sell limit to $20, with the other sell limits being higher in $0.50 increments.
ReplyDeleteWhat's this all about?
ReplyDeleteS&P probably changed its mind about European downgrade. :)
ReplyDeleteMaybe David :)...Ah, some FT article again. Dueling funds it seems to 'solve' EU.
ReplyDeleteSince I can't seem to trade my way out of a paper bag, I'll update you on my football picks.
12-4 last week and 119-66 for the season.
TOF -- nice entry into CSTR!
ReplyDeleteCSTR- Well, I got 2K bucks back from that sucker in this squeeze. Took 5K shares to do it. Flat now.
ReplyDeleteOK, CNBC is just messing with me now :)
ReplyDeleteThe bastards just sold AUMN -- crap! It was looking like a good day earlier...
ReplyDeleteMark - so what did u think about Abigail Doolittle's H-n-S call on $GOLD???? I know u were watching her....:-)
ReplyDeleteDamn straight Kyle!
ReplyDeleteTop Twitz of the day!!
ReplyDelete"Market is unpredictable at this lvl, buy $UNG for safety"
Who is selling AUMN at these levels? No investor in the right mind would do that. All traders probably sold this morning. So it only leaves hedge funds doing their dirty business, shorting AUMN while going long other stocks... So when they start unwinding this trade, AUMN will zoom as if there is no tomorrow...
ReplyDeleteMan, it feels good to get a winning trade off.
ReplyDeleteWell, at least AUMN outperformed both GDXJ and S&P today. In the past, days of underperformance would be grouped together, and then days of overperformance would be grouped as well.
ReplyDeleteCSTR- Bummer it didn't close above the 20.
ReplyDeleteWow...Here's one worth looking into. MIND
ReplyDeleteHuge beat for MIND. .22 view .52 actual. Any of you guys have the time to listen to the call?
ReplyDeleteAnother day up, another day of an rising RSI. Are we in the inzone yet?
ReplyDelete25% reduction in commodities financing?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/cbd110e8-1f62-11e1-9916-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1fmayKlzF
new post
ReplyDelete