Thursday, December 8, 2011

12/8/11 Pleased to meet you, hope you guess my name



Financial gurus, not.

Below 12000 by week's end, IMO.

98 comments:

  1. RIG -- 1:38 PM Transocean (RIG -4.3%) is one of the day's largest large-cap losers after Goldman Sachs initiates coverage with a Sell rating. The firm notes that while RIG has dominated the ultra-deepwater business, its rigs need extensive upgrades to keep them compliant in the post-Macondo world - which consensus estimates don't fully reflect.

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  2. INVN. Any of you guys know this one. Looks interesting to me.

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  3. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-08/chinese-companies-tired-of-wall-street-shift-to-hong-kong-listings-tech.html

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  4. MDW - T3d posted some drill results over at CC (# 101596)

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  5. Here I am just looking for a position to put on and I don't see anything I like. The Dec 123/124 spy strangles that expire next Friday are $4.40 / 4.42. That seems very pricey to me. Doing nothing.

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  6. We need to start shooting anyone reporting anonymously out of Europe - it's just ridiculous having the market move so much headline to headline.

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  7. it's amazing to see AAPL and MCD stay green on a day like this. That takes a lot of buying since indices are getting sold that hold both of these.

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  8. TZA - Turns out $27 entry would've worked after all, this always happens when S&P RSI(7) hits the 70 level.

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  9. wow so 1300 is out the window. last time the mkt was down big and my positions were this good (port up 2% today) i posted something along the likes of "what decline" and then i got a decent smackdown. i should have sold some today but i like my positions. almost sold cstr today but im holding out for 49. this is quite the traders stock.

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  10. Would it be fair to say BC is most definitely in denial, or is he a pumper/dumper?

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  11. CSTR.....

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-06/verizon-may-ignite-online-pay-tv-competition-with-web-offering.html

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  12. BC - I read some of the final? blowout that he and Grym had a day or 2 ago. If u aren't in-phase with his Ra-Ra at the time then he'll clip ur stuff...

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  13. Thanks to who mentioned (Port?) about IE being a problem logging in, thanks waht I use on my new system. Bing actually is not so bad, can't believe I said that. Since I want to keep my new system clean that's it.

    BC makes alot of calls in many speculative, volatile issues. If you do not have proper risk management skills with these you can get killed. It is also an advantage to make such recommendations to average traders as they could come to believe they do not have the skills neccessary to trade. Hence, let me manage your portfolio at 2 and 20 or whatever.

    I do not think he is a pump and dumper, but I tend to think he will cut his lossess.

    Here is a greatrendition of Kashmir, if you have the time and are in an altered state.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vuavUFzXX1w&feature=related

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  14. big blue arrow still pointing sideways.

    In one of his letters, Markman was referencing a Bespoke analysis where they say on average, the market make a high in early Dec, trades down to sideways through midmonth then rallies through the end of the year.

    Even in Dec 2008, the spy closed up about 5 points, from $82.11 on 12/1/08 to $90.24 12/31/08. The for Dec 2008 was on $91.88 on 12/16/08.

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  15. well duh, no wonder my trading is worthless, I'll have to ask my daughter to calc the difference between 91.88 and 82.11, too hard for me.

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  16. So far I don't see anything like the 3rd qtr of 2008. I would prefer to sell my strangle puts on Monday but we'll see what opportunities tomorrow brings.

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  17. Is it possible the US might become a net exporter of fossil fuel energy? That's one way I can see of possibly working off all this public debt that's been accumulating...

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  18. T3d - Great to have you back. Have you tried Google Chrome??? I like/use it.

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  19. "Chinese companies tired of Wall Street"

    Yeah, I'm tired of Wall Street to, somehow they can sell these companies down to single digit P/E's then take them private for pennies on the dollar.

    Makes me wonder if there isn't some large private equity behemoth behind the curtain working these companies into their private portfolios.

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  20. "I do not think he is a pump and dumper"

    Maybe I'll just call it cherry-picking trades to parade in front of an audience in an attempt to impress.

    Anybody can get nearly the same level of dishonesty from CNBC.

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  21. Gold/silver - I think they're preparing to shake down the margin players again, both gold and silver could fall out of their pennant formations again..

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  22. Mark, I think this will eventually impact our glut of gas just like I think euroland is going to rain on our happy bull market. It may take awhile but this is going to make those shale energy plays more risky. And you can kiss those exporting LNG companies good bye. It will be much easier to frack someplace else like China and the middle east than it will be here. Just my 2 cents. I'll try to bring home some of the professional commentary tomorrow.



    EPA links hydraulic fracturing with groundwater pollution
    http://fuelfix.com/blog/2011/12/08/epa-says-hydraulic-fracturing-polluted-groundwater/

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  23. 7:15 PM Here's something for the Occupy Wall Streeters to hang their hat on: working Americans are now getting the smallest slice of the income pie on record. The labor share of Q3 productivity — the amount paid to workers instead of businesses and other income-earning entities — was reported to have fallen to 57.1 cents on the dollar, its lowest level since it was first reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in 1947.

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  24. S&P - My gosh, was RSI(7) really 96.37 at yesterday's close? Wow, I can't believe it went that high.... Someone wanna confirm this number?

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  25. $SPX - looks like ~70 to me...

    http://www.screencast.com/t/uJdpm5QNb

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  26. Kyle, don't send the OWS'rs after the millionaires, think bigger:

    http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/12.11/blame.html

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  27. $SPX - Yeah, ~70 was the number last I looked, there must be something fishy with today's data...

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  28. call me crazy but did i read that jobless claims were 380k this morning? on the back of over 200k private jobs growth last friday?

    guys, we need to ignore the europe crap. our economy is doing fine. if we freak out about europe we will regret it later.

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  29. BC is the same as them all. make a bunch of calls and eventually you will be right. Wehn he is right, he cherrypicks "see when I said this last week". Kass does it, they all do it. Don't know if it's a "i can't be wrong" complex or what.

    BC did made a really good call on tech stocks back in 2007?. I remember it vividly as I was short tech as the time and couldn't believe the call, but he nailed it and I got smoked.

    As far as browsers go, I've gone to a dual approach using Chrome and Firefox. I find Chrome better for some things like gmail and twitter, but firefox better for stock trades as the screen is always there whereas Chrome seems to have to pull them out of cache. You also get the benefit if one is slow, the other sometimes still works ewll.

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  30. I'm with Chrome after Firefox. Three years now. A-OK.

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  31. I'm not of the impression today's action was a response to US data.

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  32. "BC did made a really good call on tech stocks back in 2007"

    LOL, that must be the one he keeps reposting in the WIR!

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  33. "I'm not of the impression today's action was a response to US data. "

    Absolutely I agree...but I think people are wrong to focus on Europe. Let's say we get a 1% contraction across Europe next year. BFD in my opinion. The US could very well be rip roaring by this time next year.

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  34. Iv'e been following Bill's chart indicator tip which he admitted he was not paying enough attention to lately in a recent WIR. (BC seems now preoccupied with other $ interests such as venture capitalism in junior miners. Very high risk but BC is a high worth individual.)

    And whatever happened to those ETF's he was working on? Guess he gave up on those.

    Anyway, the chart is still negative. Just plug in $TNX and EMA 8 weakly into Stock Charts: It is still a bear short term.

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  35. Good article, Mark, about Chinese companies moving to Hong Kong.

    Here is a quote from it:

    "The buyouts of Chinese companies from stock-market investors in New York, and relisting them in markets offering higher valuations, may generate profit for private-equity investors."

    I am not sure whether or not I should hope for this happening to the companies I own. Some of my holding are down more than 50% (90% in case of WATG), so a 20% buy out premium will not repair the damage...

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  36. On the other hand, maybe this news will draw in new investors, who will want to bank the buy out premium, which will serve to keep pushing up the stocks. Maybe that's why HAO is outperforming S&P since October 4...

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  37. TOF - "I think people are wrong to focus on Europe." No, the world banks and markets are highly correlated nowadays. Watch out for a Europa recession with contagion. It's longer term stuff though and will be drawn out, IMHO.

    FD: I still hold four losers but am mostly cash and timid to trade right now, even after the big decline today.

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  38. Short HEK now.
    Gas-Fracking Chemicals Detected in Wyoming Aquifer, EPA Says.
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-08/gas-fracking-chemicals-detected-in-wyoming-aquifer-epa-says.html

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  39. I'm bringing this one up again INVN. Seems REALLY interesting to me. Take a look ladies.

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  40. Port- Yeah, I saw it. Hope it doesn't go the way your thinking.

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  41. I bet the EPA fracking gets the same initial treatment as say .... the PIGS. Nothing new about either one.

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  42. Port- Agreed. MOG has made a very compelling case it isn't happening, and he's smart as hell and would run from it if it was, but damn, if it is, look out below.

    That is my submission for run on sentence of the year.

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  43. Chinese companies moving - I'm kinda split on this one but considering the bearish perspective, if one of these is planning on bailing on their US presence would they care much(or enough) about their shareholders to continue producing quarterly reports and meeting the various US listing requirements?

    If they dropped the ball say, accidentally on purpose, would they walk away with anything more than if they were to support their shareholder commitments?

    This might be the entire premise behind the MW movement? Also consider, what ever happened to the Korean listings, or the Japanese listings, is this just another case of history repeating?

    Just throwing some thoughts out there, not making any predictions.

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  44. So those of you who have been reading Brandt, how accurate is he? I just read the happy tale of MF Global and re-hypothecation on Brandt's website. Who needs horror movies with stuff like this?

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  45. TA Update warning for RB - Assuming you have implants, were you aware of the surgeon's warning that smoking can cause your nipples to fall off?

    http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=smoking+nipples+fall+off&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CCYQqQIwAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.huffingtonpost.com%2F2011%2F12%2F06%2Fsmoking-can-make-nipples-fall-off_n_1132353.html&ei=1ZLhToOwHYTd0QGetoHZBQ&usg=AFQjCNEc3R6V3hakXjy5VLvMM6_3VjfJiA

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  46. I believe Brandt's a straight shooter, he makes no suppositions in his chart analysis, he works strictly off what he sees and has no qualms if/when he's wrong he admits it right away and goes to the next thing.

    I think he's got career experience specializing in commodities trading and knows how the business works, he doesn't take sides, doesn't sympathize with conspiracy bugs.

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  47. Port- I agree with CP's take on Brandt. And just having watched Corzine's testimony only reinforces that. OK, dude, you had no fucking clue what the hell was going on. So you were paid to do what?

    Fuck you.

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  48. BTW... That's Harlan's fowl mouth, not mine :)

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  49. Mark - I agree man.


    TOF - "I think people are wrong to focus on Europe." No, the world banks and markets are highly correlated nowadays. Watch out for a Europa recession with contagion. It's longer term stuff though and will be drawn out, IMHO.

    Illini - I think I should clarify my stmt. I think it's a bad idea to focus too much on Europe because there are plenty of opportunities with individual stocks that people are overlooking. The best idea really is to just keep that list of companies undrgoing rapid growth and wait for the market to freak out about Europe...then jump on the selloff. Look at FTK man...what a huge winner over the past 2 months.

    INVN > Mark, my bro is working for a startup that does gyroscopes...it's the next big thing, but I sense that lots of companies are working on it and its tough as hell to get to work. So tons of competition with low levels of success. Tough sector.

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  50. INVN - Hmm, sounds pretty cool, I've always wondered why I don't see gyroscopes integrated into motion and position sensors used more often, could be a good field.

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  51. Gyroscopes? Had one of those at a Greek restaurant. Quite tasty but the heartburn is a killer. TOF must be nice to have a brother who is a Mediterranean chef. Yep, I bet the business is tough with the Greek and Italy debt crisis. People may hold grudges even against food.

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  52. CP,
    My nipples are still attached but they are rock hard in this foul weather.

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  53. My thoughts on gold being due for correction because it hasn't corrected significantly in 10 years: SO MUCH shit happened since last May (a collapse in silver, a crazy rally in $USD, a collapse in S&P, people assuming a definite collapse of Europe and a recession in US, etc.) that all the weak hands have been shaken out of gold/silver already. So the 15% correction we got in September is all we are going to get. Sorry folks.

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  54. RB - According to Mark, you're smokin' hot, so just wanted to make sure you were aware! ;)

    Gold - That would be fine by me if there were no correction, although I don't have much difficulty with a fake breakout to the downside of the triangle.

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  55. Re the fracing issues, it is not a straight-forward situation. The situation in question is somewhat unique and there is too much money to be made in fracing and benefits of energy independence not to find a solution for this. From the Toronto Globe an Mail:

    There are important distinctions between the fracking around Pavillion and the fracking used in major new shale oil and gas plays, such as Marcellus, Bakken and Haynesville. In shale plays, industry typically fractures rock from the horizontal leg of deep wells located at depths of one to three kilometres.

    In Wyoming, the fracturing happens from vertical wells – an important difference – that are shallower, ranging from a kilometre to 372 metres below the surface. Some water wells in the area go down to 244 metres, creating a relatively close linkage.

    In addition, the EPA notes what may be imprudent industry practices. Only two gas wells around Pavillion have “surface casing” – a protective metal sleeve inside a well that is cemented in place to prevent drilling fluids from leaking out – that goes deeper than the deepest water wells. That means almost every gas well has unprotected stretches at depths people draw water from.

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  56. good morning swing traders, hope everyone is doing well!

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  57. whats up jb! hows trading going?

    cstr - just sold my long at 47 from a few days ago...took my gains on this insane traders stock

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  58. "China inflation 4.2% The National Bureau of Statistics reported that industrial output rose 12.4 percent in November, its slowest increase in two years."

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  59. CSTR - I don't like that gap up, it needs to fill.

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  60. morning tof! how has the trading been going for you?

    not sure I have the constitution to trade futures, at least not for a living. might give swing trading a try for awhile.

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  61. I love Max:

    http://rt.com/programs/keiser-report/episode-220-max-keiser/

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  62. Russia Today (RT) - Isn't that show backed by the KGB? I think the KGB is also behind Zero Hedge, isn't it?

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  63. ok, here is my swing trade:

    long ATHN @ $59.48, back above the 50 EMA, target back to the fib ret 100% at $67.49

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  64. JB - not really trading too much. I'm currently down 15% in NLS (smaller position), up 20% in NOIZ (big position), down 14% in XWES (medium position), and was up 15% and 13% in my last two trades...all told, basically flat since the market peaked at 1,290.

    I don't know what the true definition of swing trading is, but if it's for longer than just a day, I think it's the only way to go. There are plenty of stocks that are undergoing rapid growth and if you wait long enough for them to get sold off you can make some solid coin

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  65. ATHN - Man, there are two gaps up that need to fill and that would be enough to keep me out of it.

    Not a prediction, just commenting on what I see in the chart...

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  66. moved my CSTR money back into OPEN at $36.29

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  67. took 1/2 off at $60.80 (61.8 fib), stop to b.e, will let the rest run and try to hit 100%

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  68. Considering the ECB has vowed not to print, and barring increased tensions in the Middle East, I can imagine the trading range for gold will be between $1600~$1700 for the foreseeable future, and silver's range from $30.8~$32.7

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  69. CP, I think that the ECB head Draghi stated clearly that now his focus is going to be on preventing deflation in EU, which means monetary easing.

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  70. WATG stayed flat for the past several months. At this point it is a call option on good results of internal investigation and remediation. Just for the hell of it, I placed a buy limit order for 2000 shares at $0.96.

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  71. Great. Now Google refuses to show a price for AUMN. Are they expecting it to drop off the radar like WATG did?

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  72. Yesterday's sell-off looks exactly like the late November multi-day sell-off but on a smaller scale: pull back below all recent lows, shake out all weak hands and surge back up. Now, the two sell-offs look like a cup-and-handle, don't they? The path of least resistance for S&P is up, I would say.

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  73. David - I agree, path is up. Too many scaredy cats in this market.

    I cut my loss on OPEN and moved back into CSTR at $46.3. NOIZ just continues to chug higher and higher. Volume is still light...just imagine when people catch on and volume ramps. It could run to $20.

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  74. We gap higher on Monday...and clear the 200 DMA. 1,300 coming soon.

    Look at the VIX...collapsing. XLI, XHB, IYT, XRT, RTH all look great.

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  75. 5 minutes to the close and AUMN is ahead of GDXJ for the day -- let's see if it can keep it up for 5 more minutes! :)

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  76. Yes it did! :) I need to find at least some cause for celebration this weekend, right? :)

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  77. I see 1175 on the chart, myself:

    "The smart traders [read: those making money] are technical, not fundamental," says Ilczyszyn.

    For those with a longer-term horizon, Ilczyszyn plans to be "putting in big buys at 1,180 (on the S&P500)," a key pivot area and a brief but significant trendline."

    http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/eu-summit-rally-chart-every-trader-watching-now-172118285.html;_ylt=AnfSg6bTuF6Fu2H5wHiL65.iuYdG;_ylu=X3oDMTQzNmVkMGU2BG1pdANGaW5hbmNlIEZQIEp1bWJvdHJvbiBMaXRlBHBrZwMyMzU0MTlmZi1hYmNkLTM3YTItYTkwZS04NmRjNmZjYzQxODIEcG9zAzEEc2VjA2p1bWJvdHJvbgR2ZXIDMzcyY2E3MTAtMjI4YS0xMWUxLWJmYjUtNjRlZTY1NjA1YTY4;_ylg=X3oDMTFvdnRqYzJoBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3NlY3Rpb25zBHRlc3QD;_ylv=3

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  78. "Now Google refuses to show a price for AUMN"

    Same thing happened with SVM yesterday, someone noted.

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  79. 1300 - I'm not going to argue that one and I vote for that 1st, as opposed to anything else, but; the 1175 target is there on the chart and I've got it factored into my trading plan.

    I've also got upside/downside targets in view for the security I'm currently wrangling with.

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  80. If most traders are like Bill, then they are currently underweight and are waiting for the 200dma to clear. Once it does, they'll jump on the bandwagon and quickly drive S&P over 1300.

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  81. CXZ - Uranium mining moratorium may be lifted 12/12/11:

    http://www.thetelegram.com/Business/2011-11-04/article-2795788/Uranium-mining-moratorium-can-be-lifted/1

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  82. Interesting article...

    http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/John-Carlucci-111208-The-Great-Repression.php

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  83. AUMN vs SVM - Today, I was the one holding the POS!

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  84. What are you complaining about, CP? SVM outperformed GDXJ today, and that's all that matters. :)

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  85. Kyle, yes it is quite interesting, one that'll take me a while to digest, thanks for the post.

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  86. David - I've been thinking more and more about switching to AUMN, truth be revealed....

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  87. Actually, there are several interesting articles from that site. Weekend reading...

    http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/

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  88. LOL, I look at this chart and then think about how the silver chart last peaked at $50 in 1981, and looks to have formed a C&H pattern over the period since. Maybe I should re-examine the longer (100yr?) silver chart...

    http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/charts/2011/JC-regression-study-fig-9.gif

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  89. ""The smart traders [read: those making money] are technical, not fundamental," says Ilczyszyn."

    I'm willing to bet that most "technical" traders have gotten their asses handed to them this year.

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  90. Forget AUMN, get into a bonified POS like USPR.OB, LOL, WTF?, over!

    Sheesh!

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  91. UNG - More new lows... Free energy is like free money, almost the same thing?

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  92. It's gettin' a little crazy over in CC land...

    "btw, you people are starting to get a picture of the real Bill Cara. You want to take me on, go for it."

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  93. Hmm, nothing pops out at me on the 100 year silver chart aside from the obvious date of 1963 when the one dollar silver certificate was dumped and the dollar/silver divergence began.

    One interesting fact is, two silver dimes ($4.66 today) bought a loaf of bread in 1961, and still buys that same loaf today, gasoline was $0.31/gal, so those same two silver dimes still easily buy that same gallon of gasoline.

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