SVM - "Silvercorp Received RMB 269 Million Cash Dividend From Its Chinese Subsidiary
January 10, 2012
VANCOUVER, British Columbia – January 10, 2012 – Silvercorp Metals Inc. (“Silvercorp” or the “Company”) is pleased to announce that it has received RMB 269 million cash dividend payment (equivalent to USD $43 million) from its 77.5% owned Chinese subsidiary, Henan Found Mining Co. Ltd. (“Henan Found”), in Henan Province, China. The cash dividend has been deposited at a bank in Canada.
The cash dividend represents Henan Found’s 2010 calendar year profit distribution. According to its audited statutory financial statements Henan Found had a net profit of RMB 514.8 million in the 2010 calendar year. The board of directors of Henan Found declared 75% of net profit, ( RMB 386.1 million), as cash dividends to its two shareholders. RMB 299 million, representing 77.5% total dividends declared was paid to the Company. After deducting Chinese dividend withholding tax of RMB 29.9 million, the Company received a net cash dividend payment of RMB 269 million."
GDXJ - Bought into this one just before the close today to the tune of 500 shares @ $26.57. Figure it is cheap in relation to the metal price now, as gold corrects. Junior minors can outperform POG when latter resumes up trend, as I think it will.
Got some Canon (CAJ) that I bought in the Tsunami selloff last year. Was planning to keep for a long term hold, but reading how smart phone cameras are causing lowend camera sales to fall off. As these smart phones get better and better cameras, this could really eat into Canon's business. Canon sell 20 million of their lower product line and 7 million of the high-end DSLR ones (which are not at risk) and their consumer business (cameras and printers) account for about 80% of their profits, so profits could drop over time and it trades at a 16 P/E (not super-cheap).
sold 500 shares SVM at 7.26 that were assigned to me by selling short Dec 7 strike puts at .45, less all the commission, about $44 or so if you add all 3 trades together. Etrade is probably pretty happy. I wanted to raise a little cash in this account. It's in an IRA so now I have about $4500 to invest in one of the blog's good ideas after today's sell.
BB, I like to hear everyone's ideas. I've never traded stocks outside the US other than ADR's.
team, are you more interested in microcap? if so, why don't you check out EPM and tell me what you think? I have a buddy that researches a few stocks and this is one of his big pick's.
I do look in the bankster reports I get for some of the stocks you guys chat about but so far I have not found any of them. I only get the mid and large cap reports and then commodity commentary.
"Way to go David!! Great to see it paying off for you. I know it has a long way to go for you, but your adds/trades near the lows have to be helping."
Thank you, Mark. Somehow I did manage to raise money from credit cards to meet all my margin calls and so I didn't have to sell anything at December lows. In fact, I was able to buy lots of call options on AUMN and also some calls on SLV, GDXJ and SVM. Naturally, all those calls are really helping my portfolio today. If AUMN rises to $15 and I will be able to keep myself from selling any shares in the process, then my AUMN position alone will be worth more than the all-time-high of my port in December 2010. The funny thing is that it is not unreasonable at all for AUMN to reach $15 in the next few months...
"Congratulations David, you stuck to your plan and it's beautiful to see it work for you."
Thank you, Craig. So far, however, I can only be congratulated for surviving the lows of AUMN (I hope we DID see the lows) and managing to keep buying all the way down to THE bottom.
Once it reaches $15, you can congratulate me on reaching a new all-time-high in my port. :)
Since I purchased 1K shares of AUMN yesterday at $6.21, I think I have the moral right to at least take profit on those shares in the near future (which will mentally make it easier for me to wait until $10 before itching to sell the next bunch, and at the same time it will make it easier for me to reload in case AUMN pulls back a little). So I just placed sell limit orders for 500 shares at $7.50 and $8.00.
MetLife, the nation's largest life insurer, announced Tuesday that it would close its home mortgage-origination operation, costing the company at least $90 million. Most of the 4,300 employees at the unit will lose their jobs.
What a lucky SOB. I had to unload my natty to raise funds for ANR and DANG yesterday. Natty down big. Dang is dang. Just unloaded DANG 5.61 as we may see resistance at previous spike in early December. May roll back into natty:)
Need to watch the weather to trade nat gas here. Never seems to move up until we get a cold spell. Haven't checked, but have to believe storage is very full given the mild winter so far.
working on some hotel Canadian REIT's today- INN.UN and HLR.UN. Not sure if they are on the US Pinks, but I imagine you can find US listed ones today.
These are by far the cheapest of the REIT's out there and they are about 50% below where the Industrial / commercial residential REIT's trade, business is improving and the charts are starting to turn up. This is the sweet spot for my type of investing.
If you are going to look at the Canadian ones, HLR.UN is quite complex here and you probably want to buy the debentures HLR.DB.A as they are going through an equity conversion.
I own both and am looking to add if I can get more comfortable with their businesses.
Jesse - I agree with shippers. I have EXM, EGLE, FRO on my watchlist. As far as coal stocks go I just can't seem to get past the regulatory issues that the coal industry is facing. This is forcing coal plants to shut down and nat gas is being used instead.
Don't read any articles. Just look at the charts. The charts tell the story much better than articles.
I can send you 30 articles saying that coal demand will increase 15% yoy in China, India, worldwide, and 100% in the next decade and they can't mine any more coal, so they desperately need to import from ACI, BTU, ANR etc.
Natty hits 2.76 and change. I've been reading for the past few weeks that the smart money has been waiting for 2.75. I sure didn't think it would get this close...or lower.
Yes! Exactly. PCX has by far the best chart in the group. My only concern is that they will never be profitable. But again, back to my previous comments....its all about the chart. Forget about whatever fundy notions are in your head.
That 10 week channel trendline (descending base pattern) from 14 to 11 to 9 once broken should send it to 12 or 13 within a month. About a 50% return.
Jesse - I think I would prefer to stick with ANR/ACI out of that group...better companies in general so more of a chance of rebounding...plus they had insider buys at higher prices in the summer/fall of last year. Both have just as much upside potential as well.
Count me in with Jesse's point of view regarding coal. Personally the charts tell me that the regulatory stuff is priced in and LT world demand should drive.
All similiar charts ANR BTU PCX WLT CNX JRCC some focus on met others thermal.
Checked BOIL yesterday, its definitely a day trade instrument even PRO shares states that in bold.
The chain reaction started in China. The Shanghai Index, which had been on the verge of collapse in recent weeks, managed to rally for the third day in a row. The rally was sharp (up the equivalent of 335 points in the Dow). TV pundits seemed puzzled by the China rally since the Chinese economic data was clearly downbeat. They went through mental gymnastics trying to force-fit a thesis of weak data means more accommodation which means a more optimistic market. As usual, they missed the real story which was right in front of their nose. Former NYSE specialist and current blogger, Terry Reilly, didn’t miss it, however. Here’s what he wrote on the Shanghai rally: The second major positive this morning for the risk takers was news out of China. Chinese regulators made statements overnight that they will begin to push pension funds and insurers to invest more into the stock market. Nothing like a centrally planned economy. Markets in China rallied for the 3rd straight day. The Shanghai Index has been a leader for worldwide markets. Investors are still concerned about a hard landing in China but a stronger stock market in China will give confidence to investors globally. Sure they are just trading a real estate bubble for a stock market bubble but it may pull equities out of their year long slide. The fear of government types herding new buyers into Chinese stocks was enough to scare the hell out of lots of overly comfortable shorts. The shape and extreme of the Shanghai rally virtually screamed short covering panic.
Act two shifted to Europe. The sharp rally in Shanghai put a positive bid under European markets but not to the degree of the China close. Europe got help from two different stories. First, the negotiations on haircutting the Greek debt was said to be finally making a real progress. The second and far more important spark for Europe came from a comment from Fitch, the rating agency. Here’s how Jim Brown assessed it in his Premier Investor newsletter this morning: One of the reasons for the market spike at the open today was news Fitch was not going to downgrade France or Germany in 2012. That was a positive for market sentiment and traders ignored the rest of the Fitch comments. The CAC-40 index rallied +2.53% on the news. The Managing Director, David Riley, warned that Italy could see its rating cut this month and he also warned that an exit by Greece from the euro zone in 2012 was a potential option. Riley said eurozone countries would have to raise two trillion euros in 2012 with more than half of that from members of the bloc at the highest risk of a downgrade. Italy currently has a A+ rating but Riley said it could be cut by Jan-31st when a review in progress was scheduled to end. Jim’s assessment is, as usual, spot on. The Fitch statement was not an “all clear” for Europe. The market’s, however, saw the glass as more than half full. Moody’s had previously suggested that it was unlikely to downgrade France. Fitch’s comment left only S&P as a possible threat to a downgrade. With a downgrade less likely, several potential bailout programs (EFSF, etc., etc.) look more structurally secure. That brought a sigh of relief and surge of short covering in European equities. Here’s how the European markets ended up, (translated into equivalent Dow points). France 235; Germany; 247; Spain 285 and Italy 384. Most of those gains came at or near the opening, underscoring the short covering impression. Inspired by the surge in Europe, the Dow spiked about 121 points on the opening, churned in that area for about thirty minutes and then began to lose interest and volume after Europe closed. Since the spike produced what one observer called a peek-a-boo breakout, traders were puzzled by the failure of “the shorts” to panic. That led a lot of folks to wonder about the shelf life of this breakout. We’ll see.
PEIX vs CE - CE = Ethanol from crude, no need to burn two gallons of crude while making one gallon of ethanol? Of course as always, the issue of government subsidies clouds all true market price discovery mechanisms. Makes me wonder if these subsidies aren't often expressly for the benefit of a small group.
I was looking at DANG yesterday...that sucker looks EXACTLY like BIDU did in the 8 months or so after it IPOd. Obviously the % moves were completely different, but assuming this move is for real (and I think it is) there should be a time in the next few months where you will be able to buy it on a sizeable drop...perhaps at higher prices but it might make you feel better that you're not chasing it. I suspect maybe an earnings miss or something along those lines could cause it.
Again, though, that could be on a drop from $8 to $6.5
If MITK can get back above $8.1 (it's 200 DMA) it will most definitely qualify as a breakout. that would be above prior highs from a couple of weeks ago, a break above its 200 DMA and a break of the downtrend line from a few months ago (which it already has done).
Now that AUMN is rallying nicely (I'll say more on it in another post, for now I suggest you all read http://www.goldenminerals.com/pdfs/GLDN_InvestorKit/Press-Release-January-11-2012.pdf and try not to let your jaw drop to the floor), my margin buying power is growing every day. So I just bought 10 July 2012 $8 calls on AA at $2.10 each. I think the move in AA is for real.
Also, this morning my buy limit for 1000 shares of SORL was executed at $2.35. I think I'll stop here with SORL and will focus on other POS stocks for risk diversification. Thank you, T3d, for the great articles about China! A rising tide will definitely lift all boats, taking SORL up with it.
DANG blew right through my buy stop limit at $5.30/$5.35, but along the way 361 shares did get filled at $5.33. I'll keep my original order open in case DANG visits $5.35 again. And if it doesn't, I'll just watch my 361 shares grow to the sky. :)
Jesse, why don't you just forget about Natty? There are TONS of other securities that are rising from extremely undervalued levels and have AMAZING earnings growth ahead of them (AUMN for example). In those cases, the chart indeed can become a 10-bagger, since the chart pattern is supported by fundamentals. In the case of Natty, the fundamentals show an unlimited level of supply at prices slightly above the current ones, and so THERE IS NO WAY it can manage a sustained rally. It can make at most a small oversold bounce. Why spend you time trying to catch such ephemeral oversold bounces when real long term growth opportunities abound now? That's just my 2c, Jesse -- I would really love to see you make another 1000% return this year right in front of our eyes, so we can brag about having you on our blog. :)
MITK is on a roll -- congrats, TOF! Let's hope it clears the previous high on December 23 and goes to the moon! I still have a small part of my skin in the MITK game -- 10 February $5 calls, which I picked up at $2.35...
SORL is down today only because everyone is watching it. People need to give up on it, like they gave up on MITK after it bounced around $7 for a few weeks. And then, one day, SORL will gap up to $3 and will never look back...
You are absolutely correct. I exited my UNG position.... Although I think it will have a levered 2 year return of 900% (yes).
I am scaling into a legit Chinese position solely based on the chart. After researching all day, the best chart in the entire stock market IMO. Its so risky, that nobody on this board would ever consider investing in it.
Its Book value- $3.50, It's CFO resigned, its eps last quarter +.05 EBITDA run rate- $12 million, market cap $8 million.
Industry? Clean energy...after having spent 2 years in China...this industry HAS to explode. If not, their entire population will literally die of lung cancer.
By now, you have all probably read the latest AUMN news. Here are some key excerpts for those who didn't:
"Payable metals production for September through year-end 2011 exceeded guidance previously provided in September by approximately 30% for gold and 114% for silver, primarily due to the increase in head grades resulting from reduced dilution. The following table shows actual production compared to the previous forecast for September through December 2011. Also shown is the updated 2012 forecast production for gold and silver."
The table shows that the total number of AgEq oz they plan to produce in 4Q 2012 has increased a little. More importantly, they have previously stated that they expect Velardena to become cashflow positive in 3Q 2012 at the "current commodity prices", and they said it WHEN GOLD WAS AT $1900 and silver at $43. Today, they said that they expect Velardena to become cashflow positive in mid-year 2012 at the "current commodity prices." After Velardena becomes cashflow positive at the 3Q production levels, they will increase production by more than 25% in 4Q 2012 (reaching 3100 oz of gold and 270000 oz of silver).
Now, here is the kicker. "In addition, the Company has commenced engineering studies for a phased expansion of the sulfide plant by adding an additional ball mill, flotation cells and concentrate handling equipment. The phased expansion is expected to increase the sulfide plant’s capacity from 320 to 650 tonnes per day which, along with operational improvements to the existing 500 tonne per day oxide plant, could result in annual production rates of up to 2 million ounces of silver and 29,000 ounces of gold by 2013. Expenditures for this phased expansion will be available later in the first quarter and are expected to be in the range of $10.0 million. The phased expansion would allow for an interim production increase pending completion of the proposed 2,000 tonne per day plant, which might occur as early as 2015. The 2,000 tonne per day sulfide plant could result in annual production of up to approximately 4 million ounces of silver and 80,000 ounces of gold."
So instead of us (investors) having to wait for 3 years before they build the new 2000 tpd mill, they will keep increasing their production steadily in the process. I can't think of a better management plan than that.
Twitter traders all focused on support and resistance levels. Who gives a F*$K when individual stocks are flying 30,40%, 75% off mult-month bases.
If you want to be a HUGE success in this biz, focus on what is working....not what you "think".
If you post a stock at a 52 week high in the current environment , you are in the wrong arena. (Having said that, 52 week high breakouts will be "the thing in a few months).
This environment is all about stocks exploding out of long-term descending channels/bases.
I keep seeing traders posting these 52 week high "breakouts" (GOOG, MA etc. etc.). They may trade up 5 or 10% in this environment, but the terrible "bottom feeders", "JOB" "junk off the bottom" stocks are exploding 50,60,100% in a few sessions.
So many of us are literally afraid to make an absolute killing in the market. I am not ashamed to admit that I have been terrified of making money the past 3 years (many reasons why). As 2nd will confirm, the market is 150% psychology.
Jeez...SORL is not exactly a liquid stock. I put a buy order in at $2.37 for 5k shs and it totally jacked the price. Anyway, I now have 2,600 shs of SORL.
Alrighty...I sold off another few thousand shares of MITK at $8.08 and used that to buy another 10k of IRE. I now have about 20k IRE that I'm going to sit on. I think it could be a multi-bagger very much like buying BAC at $2 in 2009.
TOF- Remember that the length of the base should be more or less equal to the length of the breakout. I have been having trouble entering my position. I will let you know definitively when I am all in.
In the meantime, investing in any Chinese stocks under book value is a no-brainer.
I think you guys may be onto something with SORL. Look at what has been happening to PPLT, which is tied to auto production and as a PM. It ended the year at $133....two trading weeks later it's $147+ More catalytic converters?
Traded around DANG a bit this AM reloaded on the pullback and sat on my fricking hands. I think it has another $1 before it finds resistance which will just be another chance to add.
"Is SORL the one with tangible assets, or the one with intangible assets? "
Oh man I was laughing my ass off at this comment. I can't believe I'm investing $$ in SORL but jeez the stock is just decimated.
Info on IRE: Ireland Govt Bond yields look like they have peaked: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/ireland/government-bond-yield Irish Stock Market looks pretty damn bullish to me: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^ISEQ+Interactive#symbol=^iseq;range=1y;compare=;indicator=split+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=;
Jesse - My position in SORL is small so I'm probably gonna just sit on my hands with that one. I've actually contemplated holding about 20 of these decimated stocks figuring 5 will go belly up, 10 will languish, and another 5 will absolutely go insane. But I decided against that.
Re: EXM > I know it has a TERRIBLE balance sheet and the industry is awful. But if it can hold its head above water then who's to say that within 2 years it couldn't be back up to $30? 20 baggers are nothing for that stock when you look at the monthly chart.
"CC- If SORL flops, don't worry. I can be at Davids house in an hour."
OK, NOW I am worried. Folks, don't get me wrong -- SORL is just for entertainment, I would NEVER bet more than 5% of my port in something that can one day just disappear, like WATG did. If you have any spare cash lying around, put it into AUMN -- that's a SURE 10-bagger over the next couple of years.
If we get a pullback it's not before we touch 1,300 Jesse. The market likes these whole numbers. I do agree that there is a lot of euphoria building in the markets so a pullback would be a nice clearer.
Speaking about AUMN, my sell limit at $7.50 for 500 shares was hit today (out of the 1000 shares I purchased 2 days ago at $6.21), and I replaced it with a buy limit at $7.00 for 535 shares, so as to put all that cash right back into AUMN if it pulls back a little.
Also, after reading this morning's news about their updated production guidance, I canceled my remaining sell limit at $8.00 for 500 shares. Given their expectation of a positive cashflow by mid-2012 at the *current* preposterously low prices for gold and silver, AUMN can easily reach $100 when they start operating their 2000 tpd mill, and it will climb there gradually since they plan to keep increasing their production gradually. So why sell at $100 stock at $8???
I calculated that I know have 23K shares, assuming that the 30 $5-strike call options will be assigned to me. In order for me to keep them around, I need to cover $60K of margin debt and then raise $40K more so as to pay off my credit cards. Anyone can loan me $100K? :)
As of September 30, 2011 quarter, SORL had $87K in intangible assets out of $231M total assets. Their total liabilities were $78M, and their market cap is now $45M.
"Personally, I see abso-freaking-lutely zero set-ups for someone with my risk tolerance."
2nd_ave -- the level of risk you expose yourself to depends on your position size. So if you don't want to put $100K into AUMN, why not put $10K into it and forget about it for 3 years?
Also, what's wrong with starting to scale into AA at these prices? If the pullback you are waiting for materializes, then you'll just buy more of it at better prices. But do buy something now, so as not to be completely left out!
Did you notice, guys, that $USD is up big today and silver is flat while gold is UP??? That's the "sea change" I was talking about. Also, TED spread closed today at the lowest point since 12/14 -- the Europe is getting their mess in order!
"Shares of photovoltaic products manufacturer Yingli Green Energy (NYSE: YGE ) are shining bright today, currently up 18%, following positive comments about the sector from a Deutsche Bank analyst.
So what: In today's note, Deutsche Bank analyst Vishal Shah noted that inventory levels in Germany are near record lows and that this inventory shortfall, coupled with a 15% subsidy cut which is looming in July, could be the catalyst to get companies to jump on the remaining inventory. Shah also noted that with Wall Street estimates already very low, the possibility of a sentiment upside exists when solar companies report in the fourth quarter."
Innovations in the banking industry move at a tortoise pace. Think of what were arguably the breakthroughs in banking technology – the automated teller machine and debit cards – and you're talking about "new" products introduced, respectively, in 1967 and 1984.
However, there's a revolution brewing in the way customers bank. Called, in the industry's lexicon, "remote deposit capture," the technology allows customers to snap photographs of paper checks with their mobile devices and deposit them digitally. The technology promises to replace transactions that account for roughly 60% of bank branch visits.
The undisputed leader in remote deposit capture technology is Mitek Systems (ticker: MITK), a small but fast-growing tech company that's become one of the leading providers of this digital application. With a market capitalization of just under $200 million, the company has signed up 161 banks, including many of the largest in the country such as JPMorgan Chase, U.S. Bancorp and PNC Financial Services.
"It's really got the best technology out there" for digital bank deposits, says Bhavan Suri, an analyst with William Blair & Co.
Previous attempts to implement remote deposit capture technology were crude and unreliable, he notes. Because of the limitations of mobile device cameras, as many as 60% of the transaction attempts were rejected by financial institutions.
With the technology developed by Mitek, fewer than 5% of those transactions are kicked out by the system.
For bank customers, the appeals are obvious: They get to avoid the chore of stopping by a branch, they can bank on their own time, and often have faster access to their deposits.
Banks historically endured the expense of building and opening branches and paying to staff them because customer acquisition was a higher priority than cost management. The thinking went that once a customer opened a savings or checking account, the bank would be able to sell them mortgages, home-equity loans or retirement services.
But the near collapse of the banking system during the financial crisis encouraged banks to pay more attention to expenses, something that the Mitek deposit system supports. Suri says teller visits cost banks nearly $4 per transaction. ATMs represent a significant cost reduction, at about 60 cents a transaction. But remote capture fares better still, costing banks just 15 cents.
If the transition to remote capture accelerates, as expected, banks could even think about slowing the pace of branch openings, if not actually closing branches.
"We would not be surprised if 2012 is remembered as the year retail banks fully embrace mobile banking and deposit," wrote Thomas McCrohan, an analyst with Janney Capital Markets, in a recent report. As of now, while seven of the 10 largest banks have licensed Mitek's technology, just four of them have released it as yet to customers.
Nevertheless, Mitek shares have retreated 26% in the last three months, fueled in part by a slightly disappointing fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report.
Still, Mitek's success in signing up customers has led to explosive sales growth. Revenue doubled in the last fiscal year over the previous, and the company – on a GAAP basis (generally accepted accounting principles) – posted a narrow profit. Both sales and profit are expected to soar in 2012, as Mitek's technology becomes more deeply entrenched in the banking industry.
Is the market ----ed up or what? After chasing the highs all day, after hours 'Asks' on DIA and SPY are now below the normal session's lows.
ReplyDeleteSVM - "Silvercorp Received RMB 269 Million Cash Dividend From Its Chinese Subsidiary
ReplyDeleteJanuary 10, 2012
VANCOUVER, British Columbia – January 10, 2012 – Silvercorp Metals Inc. (“Silvercorp” or the “Company”) is pleased to announce that it has received RMB 269 million cash dividend payment (equivalent to USD $43 million) from its 77.5% owned Chinese subsidiary, Henan Found Mining Co. Ltd. (“Henan Found”), in Henan Province, China. The cash dividend has been deposited at a bank in Canada.
The cash dividend represents Henan Found’s 2010 calendar year profit distribution. According to its audited statutory financial statements Henan Found had a net profit of RMB 514.8 million in the 2010 calendar year. The board of directors of Henan Found declared 75% of net profit, ( RMB 386.1 million), as cash dividends to its two shareholders. RMB 299 million, representing 77.5% total dividends declared was paid to the Company. After deducting Chinese dividend withholding tax of RMB 29.9 million, the Company received a net cash dividend payment of RMB 269 million."
http://www.silvercorpmetals.com/news/index.php?&content_id=343
GDXJ - Bought into this one just before the close today to the tune of 500 shares @ $26.57. Figure it is cheap in relation to the metal price now, as gold corrects. Junior minors can outperform POG when latter resumes up trend, as I think it will.
ReplyDeleteCongrats David - wait to keep the faith! Hope the 43-101 is a good one - could drive the next leg up.
ReplyDeleteTOF,
are you interested in knowing about the cheap Canadian stocks I have or just the US ones?
Got some Canon (CAJ) that I bought in the Tsunami selloff last year. Was planning to keep for a long term hold, but reading how smart phone cameras are causing lowend camera sales to fall off. As these smart phones get better and better cameras, this could really eat into Canon's business. Canon sell 20 million of their lower product line and 7 million of the high-end DSLR ones (which are not at risk) and their consumer business (cameras and printers) account for about 80% of their profits, so profits could drop over time and it trades at a 16 P/E (not super-cheap).
ReplyDeleteBB _ Both man. I need some stocks to research.
ReplyDeleteI don't really understand why Huntsman can't gain much traction. Seems pretty solid to me.
ReplyDeleteOn the other hand I completely understand Perry's problems. What a tool.
ReplyDeleteevening,
ReplyDeletesold 500 shares SVM at 7.26 that were assigned to me by selling short Dec 7 strike puts at .45, less all the commission, about $44 or so if you add all 3 trades together. Etrade is probably pretty happy. I wanted to raise a little cash in this account. It's in an IRA so now I have about $4500 to invest in one of the blog's good ideas after today's sell.
BB, I like to hear everyone's ideas. I've never traded stocks outside the US other than ADR's.
team, are you more interested in microcap? if so, why don't you check out EPM and tell me what you think? I have a buddy that researches a few stocks and this is one of his big pick's.
I do look in the bankster reports I get for some of the stocks you guys chat about but so far I have not found any of them. I only get the mid and large cap reports and then commodity commentary.
oppps, I meant "mid and large cap ENERGY stocks"
ReplyDeleteummm...ASYS is trading for $8.76 and has $7.80 in cash and no debt.
ReplyDelete"Way to go David!! Great to see it paying off for you. I know it has a long way to go for you, but your adds/trades near the lows have to be helping."
ReplyDeleteThank you, Mark. Somehow I did manage to raise money from credit cards to meet all my margin calls and so I didn't have to sell anything at December lows. In fact, I was able to buy lots of call options on AUMN and also some calls on SLV, GDXJ and SVM. Naturally, all those calls are really helping my portfolio today. If AUMN rises to $15 and I will be able to keep myself from selling any shares in the process, then my AUMN position alone will be worth more than the all-time-high of my port in December 2010. The funny thing is that it is not unreasonable at all for AUMN to reach $15 in the next few months...
BRKS - $10.40 stock; $3.7 Cash, no debt; trades at about 8 times free cash flow; 3% dividend.
ReplyDeleteAVNW - $2.0 stock; $1.30 Cash, no debt
"Congratulations David, you stuck to your plan and it's beautiful to see it work for you."
ReplyDeleteThank you, Craig. So far, however, I can only be congratulated for surviving the lows of AUMN (I hope we DID see the lows) and managing to keep buying all the way down to THE bottom.
Once it reaches $15, you can congratulate me on reaching a new all-time-high in my port. :)
Latest AAII results, as of last Friday: bullish 49%, bearish 17%. You know what that means, right?
ReplyDeleteSince I purchased 1K shares of AUMN yesterday at $6.21, I think I have the moral right to at least take profit on those shares in the near future (which will mentally make it easier for me to wait until $10 before itching to sell the next bunch, and at the same time it will make it easier for me to reload in case AUMN pulls back a little). So I just placed sell limit orders for 500 shares at $7.50 and $8.00.
ReplyDeleteMetLife, the nation's largest life insurer, announced Tuesday that it would close its home mortgage-origination operation, costing the company at least $90 million. Most of the 4,300 employees at the unit will lose their jobs.
ReplyDeleteWhat a lucky SOB. I had to unload my natty to raise funds for ANR and DANG yesterday. Natty down big. Dang is dang. Just unloaded DANG 5.61 as we may see resistance at previous spike in early December. May roll back into natty:)
ReplyDeleteGonna try my luck at the casino one more time given my good fortune. 300% in UNG 6.11-6.12.
ReplyDeleteTake a look at BOIL
Natty at 2.80!
wtic:natgas ratio 36.14 today. off the charts
HL...Ugly.
ReplyDeleteGiven the waterfall chart pattern, natty is within 2-3 sessions (if not today) of a major multi-year bottom.
ReplyDeleteWhether that is here at 2.80 or at 2.75,2.60, or even 2.50, I really don't know.
As always, tight stop in place.
Dow down 50 points. I have 27 stocks in my Ameritrade Screener watchlist.
ReplyDelete20 stocks up - some big
7 down- most just a few pennies
This is a different beast
HL - Ouch!
ReplyDeleteyep this market wont go down much to the chagrin of the bears and people looking for a dip.
ReplyDeleteNeed to watch the weather to trade nat gas here. Never seems to move up until we get a cold spell. Haven't checked, but have to believe storage is very full given the mild winter so far.
ReplyDeleteHSOL up 40% week over week
ReplyDeleteTOF,
ReplyDeleteworking on some hotel Canadian REIT's today- INN.UN and HLR.UN. Not sure if they are on the US Pinks, but I imagine you can find US listed ones today.
These are by far the cheapest of the REIT's out there and they are about 50% below where the Industrial / commercial residential REIT's trade, business is improving and the charts are starting to turn up. This is the sweet spot for my type of investing.
If you are going to look at the Canadian ones, HLR.UN is quite complex here and you probably want to buy the debentures HLR.DB.A as they are going through an equity conversion.
I own both and am looking to add if I can get more comfortable with their businesses.
We were all over the solars guys. All up huge. Shippers, coal sectors will follow.
ReplyDeleteTraders have been out of work since 2005.
2012- Year of the trader.
Jesse - I agree with shippers. I have EXM, EGLE, FRO on my watchlist. As far as coal stocks go I just can't seem to get past the regulatory issues that the coal industry is facing. This is forcing coal plants to shut down and nat gas is being used instead.
ReplyDeleteTOF-
ReplyDeleteDon't read any articles. Just look at the charts. The charts tell the story much better than articles.
I can send you 30 articles saying that coal demand will increase 15% yoy in China, India, worldwide, and 100% in the next decade and they can't mine any more coal, so they desperately need to import from ACI, BTU, ANR etc.
Its all about the charts.
When natty bottoms today, tomorrow, or Friday, coal stocks will start moving higher in a big way in sympathy.
ReplyDeleteJesse - The most beaten down of the group is probably PCX.
ReplyDeleteNatty hits 2.76 and change. I've been reading for the past few weeks that the smart money has been waiting for 2.75. I sure didn't think it would get this close...or lower.
ReplyDeleteTeam-
ReplyDeleteYes! Exactly. PCX has by far the best chart in the group. My only concern is that they will never be profitable. But again, back to my previous comments....its all about the chart. Forget about whatever fundy notions are in your head.
That 10 week channel trendline (descending base pattern) from 14 to 11 to 9 once broken should send it to 12 or 13 within a month. About a 50% return.
Jesse - I think I would prefer to stick with ANR/ACI out of that group...better companies in general so more of a chance of rebounding...plus they had insider buys at higher prices in the summer/fall of last year. Both have just as much upside potential as well.
ReplyDeleteProbably a good idea. ACI better company, ANR better chart. Both will double this year.
ReplyDeleteCount me in with Jesse's point of view regarding coal. Personally the charts tell me that the regulatory stuff is priced in and LT world demand should drive.
ReplyDeleteAll similiar charts
ANR
BTU
PCX
WLT
CNX
JRCC
some focus on met others thermal.
Checked BOIL yesterday, its definitely a day trade instrument even PRO shares states that in bold.
Long ANR RIG
China POV:
ReplyDeleteThe chain reaction started in China. The Shanghai Index, which had been on the
verge of collapse in recent weeks, managed to rally for the third day in a row. The
rally was sharp (up the equivalent of 335 points in the Dow).
TV pundits seemed puzzled by the China rally since the Chinese economic data was
clearly downbeat. They went through mental gymnastics trying to force-fit a thesis of
weak data means more accommodation which means a more optimistic market. As
usual, they missed the real story which was right in front of their nose.
Former NYSE specialist and current blogger, Terry Reilly, didn’t miss it, however.
Here’s what he wrote on the Shanghai rally:
The second major positive this morning for the risk takers was news out of
China. Chinese regulators made statements overnight that they will begin
to push pension funds and insurers to invest more into the stock market.
Nothing like a centrally planned economy. Markets in China rallied for the
3rd straight day. The Shanghai Index has been a leader for worldwide
markets. Investors are still concerned about a hard landing in China but a
stronger stock market in China will give confidence to investors globally.
Sure they are just trading a real estate bubble for a stock market bubble but
it may pull equities out of their year long slide. The fear of government types herding new buyers into Chinese stocks was enough to scare the hell out of lots of overly
comfortable shorts. The shape and extreme of the Shanghai rally virtually screamed short covering panic.
Continuing from Cashin:
ReplyDeleteAct two shifted to Europe. The sharp rally in Shanghai put a positive bid under European markets but not to the degree of
the China close.
Europe got help from two different stories. First, the negotiations on haircutting the Greek debt was said to be finally
making a real progress.
The second and far more important spark for Europe came from a comment from Fitch, the rating agency. Here’s how Jim
Brown assessed it in his Premier Investor newsletter this morning:
One of the reasons for the market spike at the open today was news Fitch was not going to downgrade France
or Germany in 2012. That was a positive for market sentiment and traders ignored the rest of the Fitch
comments. The CAC-40 index rallied +2.53% on the news. The Managing Director, David Riley, warned that
Italy could see its rating cut this month and he also warned that an exit by Greece from the euro zone in 2012
was a potential option. Riley said eurozone countries would have to raise two trillion euros in 2012 with more
than half of that from members of the bloc at the highest risk of a downgrade. Italy currently has a A+ rating but
Riley said it could be cut by Jan-31st when a review in progress was scheduled to end.
Jim’s assessment is, as usual, spot on. The Fitch statement was not an “all clear” for Europe. The market’s, however, saw the
glass as more than half full. Moody’s had previously suggested that it was unlikely to downgrade France. Fitch’s comment
left only S&P as a possible threat to a downgrade.
With a downgrade less likely, several potential bailout programs (EFSF, etc., etc.) look more structurally secure. That brought a
sigh of relief and surge of short covering in European equities.
Here’s how the European markets ended up, (translated into equivalent Dow points). France 235; Germany; 247; Spain 285
and Italy 384. Most of those gains came at or near the opening, underscoring the short covering impression.
Inspired by the surge in Europe, the Dow spiked about 121 points on the opening, churned in that area for about thirty
minutes and then began to lose interest and volume after Europe closed.
Since the spike produced what one observer called a peek-a-boo breakout, traders were puzzled by the failure of “the shorts”
to panic. That led a lot of folks to wonder about the shelf life of this breakout. We’ll see.
Tommorrow we have Italian and Spanish auctions.
ReplyDeleteAnd long a little MITK, thanks TOF
PEIX vs CE - CE = Ethanol from crude, no need to burn two gallons of crude while making one gallon of ethanol? Of course as always, the issue of government subsidies clouds all true market price discovery mechanisms. Makes me wonder if these subsidies aren't often expressly for the benefit of a small group.
ReplyDeletedudes FRO is running a bit today. The shippers could be right on cue here.
ReplyDeleteI posted earlier that I think WLT might be the best of the bunch in terms of earnings power relative to price..and TONS of insider buying in the 70's.
ReplyDeleteTEL-
ReplyDeleteRIG looks great.
Again and again, I will say that I have NEVER seen SO many trading setups in my life.
I don't think the general public (and a majority of "traders" are able to see it. Unfortunately, they are focused on the major indexes.
You can barely see DANG's move on the long term chart. On a percentage basis, this thing could be a MAJOR monster.
ReplyDeleteFSG - Still lookin' good, is this gonna evolve into a trend?
ReplyDeleteI'm going crazy here. All of the stuff I want to buy are not marginable. What to do?
ReplyDeleteI was looking at DANG yesterday...that sucker looks EXACTLY like BIDU did in the 8 months or so after it IPOd. Obviously the % moves were completely different, but assuming this move is for real (and I think it is) there should be a time in the next few months where you will be able to buy it on a sizeable drop...perhaps at higher prices but it might make you feel better that you're not chasing it. I suspect maybe an earnings miss or something along those lines could cause it.
ReplyDeleteAgain, though, that could be on a drop from $8 to $6.5
Hot-Diggity-DANG, it's kickin' it! Nice, I just don't have the guts though... ;(
ReplyDeleteIf MITK can get back above $8.1 (it's 200 DMA) it will most definitely qualify as a breakout. that would be above prior highs from a couple of weeks ago, a break above its 200 DMA and a break of the downtrend line from a few months ago (which it already has done).
ReplyDeleteSold ANR on its breaking yesterday's highs. Looking to buy back on weakness, alittle resisitence around 22 from a 7-9 days ago, hourly basis.
ReplyDeleteWFR!
ReplyDeleteXCO may be having its capitulation day today that Mark noted yesterday.
ReplyDeleteHSOL now up 65% wow
ReplyDeleteS+P down 3 points. Everything is EXPLODING
Jesse- The TZOO backs your take. Just a blip on the daily.
ReplyDeleteDamit...Look at the turn in XCO.
ReplyDeleteTOF- Yep, 8 will be tough. Hold above that at the close 8.60 is next. Momo players will jump in if it breaks that.
ReplyDeleteNatty...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-11/super-fracking-goes-deeper-to-pump-up-natural-gas-production.html
LDK too... Might explain why silver's feeling better lately?
ReplyDeleteChinese equities - An update on how the VIE structure may be cheating investors?
ReplyDeletehttp://chinaaccountingblog.com/weblog/follow-the-vie-agreements.html
Now that AUMN is rallying nicely (I'll say more on it in another post, for now I suggest you all read http://www.goldenminerals.com/pdfs/GLDN_InvestorKit/Press-Release-January-11-2012.pdf and try not to let your jaw drop to the floor), my margin buying power is growing every day. So I just bought 10 July 2012 $8 calls on AA at $2.10 each. I think the move in AA is for real.
ReplyDeleteAlso, this morning my buy limit for 1000 shares of SORL was executed at $2.35. I think I'll stop here with SORL and will focus on other POS stocks for risk diversification. Thank you, T3d, for the great articles about China! A rising tide will definitely lift all boats, taking SORL up with it.
DANG blew right through my buy stop limit at $5.30/$5.35, but along the way 361 shares did get filled at $5.33. I'll keep my original order open in case DANG visits $5.35 again. And if it doesn't, I'll just watch my 361 shares grow to the sky. :)
call me crazy but ZNGA and SKUL both look good here.
ReplyDeleteJesse, why don't you just forget about Natty? There are TONS of other securities that are rising from extremely undervalued levels and have AMAZING earnings growth ahead of them (AUMN for example). In those cases, the chart indeed can become a 10-bagger, since the chart pattern is supported by fundamentals. In the case of Natty, the fundamentals show an unlimited level of supply at prices slightly above the current ones, and so THERE IS NO WAY it can manage a sustained rally. It can make at most a small oversold bounce. Why spend you time trying to catch such ephemeral oversold bounces when real long term growth opportunities abound now? That's just my 2c, Jesse -- I would really love to see you make another 1000% return this year right in front of our eyes, so we can brag about having you on our blog. :)
ReplyDeleteAnyone know if SORL is a VIE? That sucker just looks fundamentally cheap. The Zoomlion win sounds like a big one.
ReplyDeleteMITK is on a roll -- congrats, TOF! Let's hope it clears the previous high on December 23 and goes to the moon! I still have a small part of my skin in the MITK game -- 10 February $5 calls, which I picked up at $2.35...
ReplyDeleteTOF, I am pretty sure SORL is a VIE...
ReplyDeleteSORL is down today only because everyone is watching it. People need to give up on it, like they gave up on MITK after it bounced around $7 for a few weeks. And then, one day, SORL will gap up to $3 and will never look back...
ReplyDeleteDavid-
ReplyDeleteYou are absolutely correct. I exited my UNG position.... Although I think it will have a levered 2 year return of 900% (yes).
I am scaling into a legit Chinese position solely based on the chart. After researching all day, the best chart in the entire stock market IMO. Its so risky, that nobody on this board would ever consider investing in it.
Its Book value- $3.50, It's CFO resigned, its eps last quarter +.05 EBITDA run rate- $12 million, market cap $8 million.
Industry? Clean energy...after having spent 2 years in China...this industry HAS to explode. If not, their entire population will literally die of lung cancer.
Market cap???
$7 million
stock price- $0.35
:)
By now, you have all probably read the latest AUMN news. Here are some key excerpts for those who didn't:
ReplyDelete"Payable metals production for September through year-end 2011 exceeded guidance previously provided in September by approximately 30% for gold and 114% for silver, primarily due to the increase in head grades resulting from reduced dilution. The following table shows actual production compared to the previous forecast for September through December 2011. Also shown is the updated 2012 forecast production for gold and silver."
The table shows that the total number of AgEq oz they plan to produce in 4Q 2012 has increased a little. More importantly, they have previously stated that they expect Velardena to become cashflow positive in 3Q 2012 at the "current commodity prices", and they said it WHEN GOLD WAS AT $1900 and silver at $43. Today, they said that they expect Velardena to become cashflow positive in mid-year 2012 at the "current commodity prices." After Velardena becomes cashflow positive at the 3Q production levels, they will increase production by more than 25% in 4Q 2012 (reaching 3100 oz of gold and 270000 oz of silver).
Now, here is the kicker. "In addition, the Company has commenced engineering studies for a phased expansion of the sulfide plant
by adding an additional ball mill, flotation cells and concentrate handling equipment. The phased expansion is expected to increase the sulfide plant’s capacity from 320 to 650 tonnes per day which, along with operational improvements to the existing 500 tonne per day oxide plant, could result in annual
production rates of up to 2 million ounces of silver and 29,000 ounces of gold by 2013. Expenditures for this phased expansion will be available later in the first quarter and are expected to be in the range of $10.0 million. The phased expansion would allow for an interim production increase pending completion
of the proposed 2,000 tonne per day plant, which might occur as early as 2015. The 2,000 tonne per day sulfide plant could result in annual production of up to approximately 4 million ounces of silver and 80,000 ounces of gold."
So instead of us (investors) having to wait for 3 years before they build the new 2000 tpd mill, they will keep increasing their production steadily in the process. I can't think of a better management plan than that.
Jesse - I know exactly who you're referring to because it's on my watchlist: CLNT.
ReplyDeleteTwitter traders all focused on support and resistance levels. Who gives a F*$K when individual stocks are flying 30,40%, 75% off mult-month bases.
ReplyDeleteIf you want to be a HUGE success in this biz, focus on what is working....not what you "think".
If you post a stock at a 52 week high in the current environment , you are in the wrong arena. (Having said that, 52 week high breakouts will be "the thing in a few months).
This environment is all about stocks exploding out of long-term descending channels/bases.
I keep seeing traders posting these 52 week high "breakouts" (GOOG, MA etc. etc.). They may trade up 5 or 10% in this environment, but the terrible "bottom feeders", "JOB" "junk off the bottom" stocks are exploding 50,60,100% in a few sessions.
So many of us are literally afraid to make an absolute killing in the market. I am not ashamed to admit that I have been terrified of making money the past 3 years (many reasons why). As 2nd will confirm, the market is 150% psychology.
Worldwide markets have bottomed. Its go time.
Are you ready?
Jeez...SORL is not exactly a liquid stock. I put a buy order in at $2.37 for 5k shs and it totally jacked the price. Anyway, I now have 2,600 shs of SORL.
ReplyDeleteTo fund it I sold 7% of my MITK at $7.93
Long 4k shs of IRE at $4.41
ReplyDeleteAdded another 3,600 shs IRE at $4.44.
ReplyDeleteNGB ready to go. 75% 4 week trade. Probably means IRE ready to go.
ReplyDeleteREDF
ReplyDeleteEXM
PCZ
ANR
MTL
NBG
IRE
DANG (holy sh%t)
RDN
OSG
EXM
FSLR
HSOL
PEIX
"PCZ" being PCX which we spoke about today 6% lower.
ReplyDeleteLong 10k shs EXM at $1.62.
ReplyDeleteAdded to my SORL at $2.37...now long about 6k shs of that.
Financed with MITK sold at $8.02. Still holding about 75% of my MITK
I found about 15 or so of the 20 or 30 700-1500% 2009 bottoms using Worden software. I am MUCH better prepared this time based on my state of mind.
ReplyDeleteI'm locking and loading big time (longer term) this time ahead of my trip to Columbia, Ecuador, Chile, Uruguay, Chile etc.)
Less trading.
More patience.
More David
More 2nd lol
:)
Jesse - What are you in other than CLNT?
ReplyDeleteAlrighty...I sold off another few thousand shares of MITK at $8.08 and used that to buy another 10k of IRE. I now have about 20k IRE that I'm going to sit on. I think it could be a multi-bagger very much like buying BAC at $2 in 2009.
ReplyDeleteAll right...joined you guys in SORL. 5K shares @ 2.34.
ReplyDeleteCap. day for SWN? Volume says so.
ReplyDeleteOkay, so clue me in, why are these Chinese POS stocks popping lately?
ReplyDeleteI realize there must be some legitimate ones, but did a starting gun go off somewhere?
Something changed, or will these be right back in their delisting and downtrend spiral by tomorrow close?
TOF- Remember that the length of the base should be more or less equal to the length of the breakout. I have been having trouble entering my position. I will let you know definitively when I am all in.
ReplyDeleteIn the meantime, investing in any Chinese stocks under book value is a no-brainer.
A .5 p/v suggests 100% upside
.4 book " 150%
.25 " 400%
.20 " 500%
.12 " 850%
.10 " 1,000%
.08?
This is our time.
I think you guys may be onto something with SORL.
ReplyDeleteLook at what has been happening to PPLT, which is tied to auto production and as a PM. It ended the year at $133....two trading weeks later it's $147+ More catalytic converters?
Traded around DANG a bit this AM reloaded on the pullback and sat on my fricking hands. I think it has another $1 before it finds resistance which will just be another chance to add.
Wow, you guys have cojones. Personally, I see abso-freaking-lutely zero set-ups for someone with my risk tolerance.
ReplyDeleteIs SORL the one with tangible assets, or the one with intangible assets?
ReplyDeleteCP- I honestly just think it's risk on for short term traders.
ReplyDeleteJust looking at closing prices.
ReplyDeleteDANG BITCH!
wtg CC:)
"Is SORL the one with tangible assets, or the one with intangible assets? "
ReplyDeleteOh man I was laughing my ass off at this comment. I can't believe I'm investing $$ in SORL but jeez the stock is just decimated.
Info on IRE:
Ireland Govt Bond yields look like they have peaked:
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/ireland/government-bond-yield
Irish Stock Market looks pretty damn bullish to me:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^ISEQ+Interactive#symbol=^iseq;range=1y;compare=;indicator=split+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=;
Chart says DANG 15 (200%) in next 3 months.
ReplyDeleteNo shares here:(
YGE - This one seems to have a decent balance sheet, if you like the taste of Chinese solar....
ReplyDeleteGuys- SORL not the best chart pattern, especially given current environment. But...who knows...
ReplyDeleteJesse - My position in SORL is small so I'm probably gonna just sit on my hands with that one. I've actually contemplated holding about 20 of these decimated stocks figuring 5 will go belly up, 10 will languish, and another 5 will absolutely go insane. But I decided against that.
ReplyDeleteRe: EXM > I know it has a TERRIBLE balance sheet and the industry is awful. But if it can hold its head above water then who's to say that within 2 years it couldn't be back up to $30? 20 baggers are nothing for that stock when you look at the monthly chart.
ReplyDeleteJesse- BORN might interest you. We traded that one here in the 10's.
ReplyDeleteCC- If SORL flops, don't worry. I can be at Davids house in an hour.
ReplyDeletehttp://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000035609
ReplyDeleteVIX smallest intraday range since '03.
ReplyDeleteWe fall starting tomorrow. Maybe big. Doesn't change longer term outlook though.
Lots of euphoria in market. Most of the best traders up 50-75% ytd.
Time for them to give up much of those ytd gains b4 next big market push.
Be prepared.
TOF- You might as well buy XCO. Ross owns most of that also.
ReplyDelete"CC- If SORL flops, don't worry. I can be at Davids house in an hour."
ReplyDeleteOK, NOW I am worried. Folks, don't get me wrong -- SORL is just for entertainment, I would NEVER bet more than 5% of my port in something that can one day just disappear, like WATG did. If you have any spare cash lying around, put it into AUMN -- that's a SURE 10-bagger over the next couple of years.
Good AH guidance from TSCO.
ReplyDeleteBest of luck guys.
ReplyDeleteI'm out for awhile.
Lots of traveling. S. FL, S. America
4 months. I will be here, but much less active unless my best don't pan out.
Absolutely no worries. This is our year guys.
If we get a pullback it's not before we touch 1,300 Jesse. The market likes these whole numbers. I do agree that there is a lot of euphoria building in the markets so a pullback would be a nice clearer.
ReplyDeleteSave travels stranger.
ReplyDeletein the world of you can't make this up:
ReplyDelete"S&P Expects To Either Lower Its Ratings On Bk Of Ireland's Mortgage Covered Bonds Or Raise Them At A-"
Speaking about AUMN, my sell limit at $7.50 for 500 shares was hit today (out of the 1000 shares I purchased 2 days ago at $6.21), and I replaced it with a buy limit at $7.00 for 535 shares, so as to put all that cash right back into AUMN if it pulls back a little.
ReplyDeleteAlso, after reading this morning's news about their updated production guidance, I canceled my remaining sell limit at $8.00 for 500 shares. Given their expectation of a positive cashflow by mid-2012 at the *current* preposterously low prices for gold and silver, AUMN can easily reach $100 when they start operating their 2000 tpd mill, and it will climb there gradually since they plan to keep increasing their production gradually. So why sell at $100 stock at $8???
I calculated that I know have 23K shares, assuming that the 30 $5-strike call options will be assigned to me. In order for me to keep them around, I need to cover $60K of margin debt and then raise $40K more so as to pay off my credit cards. Anyone can loan me $100K? :)
Good luck with your travels, Jesse! I wish I could go traveling for a year -- that would ensure that I don't sell any AUMN before it hits $50. :)
ReplyDeleteAs of September 30, 2011 quarter, SORL had $87K in intangible assets out of $231M total assets. Their total liabilities were $78M, and their market cap is now $45M.
ReplyDelete"Personally, I see abso-freaking-lutely zero set-ups for someone with my risk tolerance."
ReplyDelete2nd_ave -- the level of risk you expose yourself to depends on your position size. So if you don't want to put $100K into AUMN, why not put $10K into it and forget about it for 3 years?
Also, what's wrong with starting to scale into AA at these prices? If the pullback you are waiting for materializes, then you'll just buy more of it at better prices. But do buy something now, so as not to be completely left out!
Good thing your really smart David. I could never deal with all of that!...And I will ask my kids if they can lend you the money.
ReplyDeleteSafe Travels Jessie.
ReplyDeleteSorry, Jesse.
ReplyDeleteDid you notice, guys, that $USD is up big today and silver is flat while gold is UP??? That's the "sea change" I was talking about. Also, TED spread closed today at the lowest point since 12/14 -- the Europe is getting their mess in order!
ReplyDeleteSolar facing a German subsidy cut?:
ReplyDelete"Shares of photovoltaic products manufacturer Yingli Green Energy (NYSE: YGE ) are shining bright today, currently up 18%, following positive comments about the sector from a Deutsche Bank analyst.
So what: In today's note, Deutsche Bank analyst Vishal Shah noted that inventory levels in Germany are near record lows and that this inventory shortfall, coupled with a 15% subsidy cut which is looming in July, could be the catalyst to get companies to jump on the remaining inventory. Shah also noted that with Wall Street estimates already very low, the possibility of a sentiment upside exists when solar companies report in the fourth quarter."
Barrons article today.
ReplyDeleteInnovations in the banking industry move at a tortoise pace. Think of what were arguably the breakthroughs in banking technology – the automated teller machine and debit cards – and you're talking about "new" products introduced, respectively, in 1967 and 1984.
However, there's a revolution brewing in the way customers bank. Called, in the industry's lexicon, "remote deposit capture," the technology allows customers to snap photographs of paper checks with their mobile devices and deposit them digitally. The technology promises to replace transactions that account for roughly 60% of bank branch visits.
The undisputed leader in remote deposit capture technology is Mitek Systems (ticker: MITK), a small but fast-growing tech company that's become one of the leading providers of this digital application. With a market capitalization of just under $200 million, the company has signed up 161 banks, including many of the largest in the country such as JPMorgan Chase, U.S. Bancorp and PNC Financial Services.
"It's really got the best technology out there" for digital bank deposits, says Bhavan Suri, an analyst with William Blair & Co.
Previous attempts to implement remote deposit capture technology were crude and unreliable, he notes. Because of the limitations of mobile device cameras, as many as 60% of the transaction attempts were rejected by financial institutions.
With the technology developed by Mitek, fewer than 5% of those transactions are kicked out by the system.
For bank customers, the appeals are obvious: They get to avoid the chore of stopping by a branch, they can bank on their own time, and often have faster access to their deposits.
Banks historically endured the expense of building and opening branches and paying to staff them because customer acquisition was a higher priority than cost management. The thinking went that once a customer opened a savings or checking account, the bank would be able to sell them mortgages, home-equity loans or retirement services.
But the near collapse of the banking system during the financial crisis encouraged banks to pay more attention to expenses, something that the Mitek deposit system supports. Suri says teller visits cost banks nearly $4 per transaction. ATMs represent a significant cost reduction, at about 60 cents a transaction. But remote capture fares better still, costing banks just 15 cents.
If the transition to remote capture accelerates, as expected, banks could even think about slowing the pace of branch openings, if not actually closing branches.
"We would not be surprised if 2012 is remembered as the year retail banks fully embrace mobile banking and deposit," wrote Thomas McCrohan, an analyst with Janney Capital Markets, in a recent report. As of now, while seven of the 10 largest banks have licensed Mitek's technology, just four of them have released it as yet to customers.
Nevertheless, Mitek shares have retreated 26% in the last three months, fueled in part by a slightly disappointing fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report.
Still, Mitek's success in signing up customers has led to explosive sales growth. Revenue doubled in the last fiscal year over the previous, and the company – on a GAAP basis (generally accepted accounting principles) – posted a narrow profit. Both sales and profit are expected to soar in 2012, as Mitek's technology becomes more deeply entrenched in the banking industry.
Good find, Mark, about MITK! If I had some extra cash that I was not allowed to invest into AUMN, I would invest it into MITK!
ReplyDeleteSilver - The December head on the inverse H&S indicates a target of ~$34...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SI&p=d1
FSG - Moved up and over the 20SMA....
ReplyDelete