I think the fact that Italy and Spanish yields collapsed is a positive at the end of the day and the market will see it as that.
This moves the market one step closer to being positive on European banks. The one bank that I know for sure has taken its pain and raised enough capital to survive: IRE. That's why I'm buying it. When sentiment changes (and I believe it will soon) the stock will skyrocket higher. $15 in 2 months isn't out of the question.
"I think the fact that Italy and Spanish yields collapsed is a positive at the end of the day"
They did collapse? That's about the best thing that could happen!
That might reverse the euro carry trade a bit though, if the euro isn't going to continue down further, then we might not rally too much in the meantime, which would make room to work off some relative strength ahead of the next leg up by moving sideways awhile.
Or maybe we sell off a considerable amount, it's difficult to judge...
Volume in IRE is already at yesterday's volume. This sucker is gonna run hard soon. Check out the move in RDN...I think it will be even bigger in IRE. After it runs I wouldn't be surprised if Wilbur Ross comes on the tube and talks about it.
guys look at the volume on the weekly charts in IRE...I think this is what that Dan Zanger guy was talking about in 10 week base pattern chart: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CUf6zozkNGc&feature=BFa&list=UUPxRe11xWPB0qEWgie5TQtw&lf=plcp
The weekl volume basically collapsed over 13 weeks. This week the volume is greater than last week by almost double (same number of trading days by the end of today) and the move in the stock reflects that: up 6% so far.
Man, what a day. A RT in DANG and back again. PEIX making up some ground. JVA was up nicely. AEN doing well. Somebody posted about selling MITK at 8.30? That has to suck. :>) I know because I didn't hold any.
I feel like we are getting a bit overbought in here and can expect a little pullback soon, but heck if I know when that is. Oil related equities gave up the ghost today, must be NG related because I doubt Iran ran and PEIX wasn't involved.
CC - I sold my MITK at $8.30...but luckily I bankrolled it all in IRE so I ain't complaining. IRE is a classic Junk off the Bottom trade that that Stephan Stewart guy mentioned...classic chart pattern with big pop and heavy volume. It could really get going here.
Speaking of IRE, Wilbur Ross was on CNBC last night talking about how private equity is good. he dropped a great line that I figured I would share with you guys:
wilbur ross, welcome back. you are in this business. vulture capitalism, legal looting. what gingrich and perry are saying is p.e. firms buy the companies, liquidate them and take the profits home. you're in the business and you're successful. why are they wrong?
they are wrong because they have no idea how private equity functions. they are as well versed in private equity as a virginal professor of anatomy who has read all the books but never been there.
I know it has tons of problems and what not, but OMX's (Office Max) chart is looking REALLY good. It's basically the same setup as IRE....huge long 15 week base with volume decreasing throughout...if it can get some good volume on an up day it might be worth a flier. The company has $1.5 Billion in cash and a 0.6 Price to liquidation value. Mkt cap is $400 Million. It is trading at a 8 P/E. Apparently, over the next 4 years a large chunk of their stores leases are up and there most likely will be many store closings. This could be a private equity takeover target or a takeover by Staples. The stock was at $18 back in January (at $4.8 now).
I spent the whole day at work today and could not chime in. AUMN and MITK keep on climbing toward $50 -- I wonder which one will get there first. :)
This evening, $USD index broke below its recent support at $80.80 and S&P futures naturally spiked up. However, it is kinda disappointing to see that both gold and silver are still below the peaks they made this morning. But then, AUMN is gonna climb up even if gold and silver just stay flat. In fact, if gold and silver stay flat for a while, then GDXJ should rise above its December 2010 highs, which were made at the levels of gold and silver BELOW the current ones.
The IRE chart does look interesting. It will look even more interesting if it can break above the previous high at $5.02. So I just canceled the buy limit order for 535 shares of AUMN at $7 (since AUMN most likely won't get there tomorrow) and instead recycled that money into a buy stop limit order for 715 shares of IRE at $5.2/$5.25
The employment companies should do well here assuming the economy continues to improve - I own CDI - pay a good dividend and could trade up to the high $20's (it's at $14.35).
I also think the brokerage firms should rise in recognition of the acquisition for Raymond James last night and improving capital markets. The one I own is COWN which is at 55% of book value.
Finally, if you want a good Canadian company, take a look at Hartco (HCI-T,HCIZF). It is the 2nd largest IT reseller in Canada - kind of like an Ingram Micro (IM), but about half the valuation, no debt and a better ROE.
Currently stock is at $2.80. Last 5 years earnings are $0.50, $0.21 (2009), $0.60, $0.41, $0.66 Stock was in a nice uptrend this year to $4.00 until bad earnings due to New ERP system cost overruns started.
First 9 months, 2011 EPS is $0.23. ERP costs were $1.7 million; using 27% tax rate (9 month rate), affect to EPS is $0.08. Add back ERP of $0.08 and Q4 profit of $0.29 (same as 2010 q4) – gives EPS of $0.60.
BV is around $5.31 now; balance sheet is solid with most assets being cash or receivables. Book value excluding intangible is $4.27.
So you've got a consistently profitable organization, trading at less than 5 times "standard" earnings, at half of book value, 65% of tangible book, whose stock has taken a beating due to high ERP costs.
In my experience, buy a company that has lowered earnings due to an ERP implementation almost always works out - next year, the costs fall off, productivity, margins and profits go up and the stock rises.
TD raised their target on AUMN yesterday from $14 to $16 the NAV to $19.71 from $17.53. I have the full report if you want to see it. Just leave your email or if Mark has your address, perhaps he could send to me and avoid more potential spam.
Let's see how the market and the new junkie momo stocks react to some negativity. If this is indeed a recharged bull market, we should chug through this negativity.
9:06 AM Patriot Coal (PCX) -6.6% premarket after saying it will cut production of metallurgical coal used to make steel due to weakening demand. PCX will idle some mines at its southern West Virginia operations, but did not say if it would lay off any workers. More details will be provided when it releases Q4 results on Jan. 31.
10:13 AM Patriot Coal's (PCX -6.8%) warning triggers a broader selloff in coal stocks. ANR -7.6%. BTU -3.3%. CNX -3.8%. JRCC -7.6%.ACI -6.9%. The fact the warning was related to the production of high-end coal used for steelmaking is likely to raise fears of slowing global industrial output.
AAPL - "12:15 PM Apple (AAPL -0.4%) discloses a list of its major suppliers for the first time, moving to combat criticism about working conditions in its supply chain and the company's transparency about them. The list of 156 companies is accompanied by a detailed audit that includes discovery of a a number of environmental violations in plants in China."
Hey, for some reason I'm able to add comments under 'Handcuffed,' but still having problems adding comments to previous posts.
ReplyDeletejeez whats up with nat gas man?
ReplyDeletehere's a good looking chart: TISA
ReplyDeleteSold all of my remaining MITK at $8.3. Sold EXM at $1.68. Bought more IRE at $4.63
ReplyDeleteBought more IRE at $4.55
ReplyDelete"Sugar magnolia, blossoms blooming, heads all empty and I don't care,
ReplyDeleteSaw my DANG down by the river, knew she'd have to come up soon for air."
I think the fact that Italy and Spanish yields collapsed is a positive at the end of the day and the market will see it as that.
ReplyDeleteThis moves the market one step closer to being positive on European banks. The one bank that I know for sure has taken its pain and raised enough capital to survive: IRE. That's why I'm buying it. When sentiment changes (and I believe it will soon) the stock will skyrocket higher. $15 in 2 months isn't out of the question.
"I think the fact that Italy and Spanish yields collapsed is a positive at the end of the day"
ReplyDeleteThey did collapse? That's about the best thing that could happen!
That might reverse the euro carry trade a bit though, if the euro isn't going to continue down further, then we might not rally too much in the meantime, which would make room to work off some relative strength ahead of the next leg up by moving sideways awhile.
Or maybe we sell off a considerable amount, it's difficult to judge...
FSG - Gaining some momentum...
oN THE OLD COMPUTER. Blog totally does not work since last night on new. after working fine for a few days, go figure.
ReplyDeleteSold out most all positions except MDW DVN.
Nat Gas: If anyone has access to Raymond James there was an analyst on named John Freeman says NG going to 2. I would love to see his report.
Offline till TT works on new computer again. GL dudes
UNG - Catch that cloud and paint it blue!
ReplyDeleteWho manufacturers gas powered electric turbines, GE?
ReplyDeleteVolume in IRE is already at yesterday's volume. This sucker is gonna run hard soon. Check out the move in RDN...I think it will be even bigger in IRE. After it runs I wouldn't be surprised if Wilbur Ross comes on the tube and talks about it.
ReplyDeleteCSTR making a nice little move here.
ReplyDeleteU guys see the move in RDN? Jeez I think I bought that at $2.3 and sold at $2.4.
guys look at the volume on the weekly charts in IRE...I think this is what that Dan Zanger guy was talking about in 10 week base pattern chart:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CUf6zozkNGc&feature=BFa&list=UUPxRe11xWPB0qEWgie5TQtw&lf=plcp
The weekl volume basically collapsed over 13 weeks. This week the volume is greater than last week by almost double (same number of trading days by the end of today) and the move in the stock reflects that: up 6% so far.
SCCO - Nice rally out of that $25 range, once again... I've got a $42 target on the inverse H&S pattern.
ReplyDeleteWhere the Eff is everyone?
ReplyDeleteMan, what a day. A RT in DANG and back again. PEIX making up some ground. JVA was up nicely. AEN doing well. Somebody posted about selling MITK at 8.30? That has to suck. :>) I know because I didn't hold any.
ReplyDeleteI feel like we are getting a bit overbought in here and can expect a little pullback soon, but heck if I know when that is.
Oil related equities gave up the ghost today, must be NG related because I doubt Iran ran and PEIX wasn't involved.
CC - I sold my MITK at $8.30...but luckily I bankrolled it all in IRE so I ain't complaining. IRE is a classic Junk off the Bottom trade that that Stephan Stewart guy mentioned...classic chart pattern with big pop and heavy volume. It could really get going here.
ReplyDeleteSpeaking of IRE, Wilbur Ross was on CNBC last night talking about how private equity is good. he dropped a great line that I figured I would share with you guys:
wilbur ross, welcome back. you are in this business. vulture capitalism, legal looting. what gingrich and perry are saying is p.e. firms buy the companies, liquidate them and take the profits home. you're in the business and you're successful. why are they wrong?
they are wrong because they have no idea how private equity functions. they are as well versed in private equity as a virginal professor of anatomy who has read all the books but never been there.
Oil - The embargo was delayed.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-12/oil-rises-from-lowest-2012-level-on-nigerian-strike-and-iran.html
"Oil related equities gave up the ghost today"
ReplyDeleteOne I've been watching did pretty well, considering.
"Wilbur Ross"
ReplyDeleteIsn't he Mr. Ed's "owner"?
SKUL looks like it's setting up to make a move higher....
ReplyDeleteFigured I would pass this along:
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/finally-time-buy-natural-gas-203933083.html
Here you guys are!
ReplyDeleteLife = risk
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=RmTxr7OsPj0
I couldn't bring up the blog at work today
ReplyDeleteTeam sold 500 mitk@ 8.85, thanks!
TOF- Guttsy move from MITK to IRE. Damn you got balls bro.
ReplyDeleteMark - The setup in IRE is just too damn good man. I seriously think it has room to $8.
ReplyDeleteI know it has tons of problems and what not, but OMX's (Office Max) chart is looking REALLY good. It's basically the same setup as IRE....huge long 15 week base with volume decreasing throughout...if it can get some good volume on an up day it might be worth a flier. The company has $1.5 Billion in cash and a 0.6 Price to liquidation value. Mkt cap is $400 Million. It is trading at a 8 P/E. Apparently, over the next 4 years a large chunk of their stores leases are up and there most likely will be many store closings. This could be a private equity takeover target or a takeover by Staples. The stock was at $18 back in January (at $4.8 now).
ReplyDeleteAnother one that looks good: ANW. Same chart pattern: trades at 0.5 times liquidation value at $4.9. Stock down from $32 two years ago.
ReplyDeleteI spent the whole day at work today and could not chime in. AUMN and MITK keep on climbing toward $50 -- I wonder which one will get there first. :)
ReplyDeleteThis evening, $USD index broke below its recent support at $80.80 and S&P futures naturally spiked up. However, it is kinda disappointing to see that both gold and silver are still below the peaks they made this morning. But then, AUMN is gonna climb up even if gold and silver just stay flat. In fact, if gold and silver stay flat for a while, then GDXJ should rise above its December 2010 highs, which were made at the levels of gold and silver BELOW the current ones.
The IRE chart does look interesting. It will look even more interesting if it can break above the previous high at $5.02. So I just canceled the buy limit order for 535 shares of AUMN at $7 (since AUMN most likely won't get there tomorrow) and instead recycled that money into a buy stop limit order for 715 shares of IRE at $5.2/$5.25
ReplyDeleteA few stock ideas.
ReplyDeleteThe employment companies should do well here assuming the economy continues to improve - I own CDI - pay a good dividend and could trade up to the high $20's (it's at $14.35).
I also think the brokerage firms should rise in recognition of the acquisition for Raymond James last night and improving capital markets. The one I own is COWN which is at 55% of book value.
Finally, if you want a good Canadian company, take a look at Hartco (HCI-T,HCIZF). It is the 2nd largest IT reseller in Canada - kind of like an Ingram Micro (IM), but about half the valuation, no debt and a better ROE.
Currently stock is at $2.80.
Last 5 years earnings are $0.50, $0.21 (2009), $0.60, $0.41, $0.66
Stock was in a nice uptrend this year to $4.00 until bad earnings due to New ERP system cost overruns started.
First 9 months, 2011 EPS is $0.23. ERP costs were $1.7 million; using 27% tax rate (9 month rate), affect to EPS is $0.08. Add back ERP of $0.08 and Q4 profit of $0.29 (same as 2010 q4) – gives EPS of $0.60.
BV is around $5.31 now; balance sheet is solid with most assets being cash or receivables. Book value excluding intangible is $4.27.
So you've got a consistently profitable organization, trading at less than 5 times "standard" earnings, at half of book value, 65% of tangible book, whose stock has taken a beating due to high ERP costs.
In my experience, buy a company that has lowered earnings due to an ERP implementation almost always works out - next year, the costs fall off, productivity, margins and profits go up and the stock rises.
David,
ReplyDeleteTD raised their target on AUMN yesterday from $14 to $16 the NAV to $19.71 from $17.53. I have the full report if you want to see it. Just leave your email or if Mark has your address, perhaps he could send to me and avoid more potential spam.
Good morning, Friday the 13th...
ReplyDeleteLet's see how the market and the new junkie momo stocks react to some negativity. If this is indeed a recharged bull market, we should chug through this negativity.
ReplyDelete9:06 AM Patriot Coal (PCX) -6.6% premarket after saying it will cut production of metallurgical coal used to make steel due to weakening demand. PCX will idle some mines at its southern West Virginia operations, but did not say if it would lay off any workers. More details will be provided when it releases Q4 results on Jan. 31.
ReplyDeletePEIX breaking out
ReplyDeletelets see how PCX reacts to that news...if they buy the dip and close it green the coals should be bought.
ReplyDeleteYou guys still banning 2nd from the comment section?
ReplyDeleteKinda hoping this bounce at 1281 holds but I doubt it.
ReplyDeleteHEK setting up.
ReplyDelete10:13 AM Patriot Coal's (PCX -6.8%) warning triggers a broader selloff in coal stocks. ANR -7.6%. BTU -3.3%. CNX -3.8%. JRCC -7.6%.ACI -6.9%. The fact the warning was related to the production of high-end coal used for steelmaking is likely to raise fears of slowing global industrial output.
ReplyDeleteDamn...I KNOW HEK is a good entry here but don't want to pull the trigger with a 3 day weekend. Maybe at the close. Later.
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDeleteAAPL - "12:15 PM Apple (AAPL -0.4%) discloses a list of its major suppliers for the first time, moving to combat criticism about working conditions in its supply chain and the company's transparency about them. The list of 156 companies is accompanied by a detailed audit that includes discovery of a a number of environmental violations in plants in China."
ReplyDelete