Monday, January 16, 2012
1/16/12 I Don't Care Where It Goes
I have my sights on destinations south, but I'll take a northbound if it gets me out of this border town.
What's behind my bearish tint?
(a) We had a +100% move off the 2009 lows to 1350. Pulled back -20% 1o 1100. Now we're at 1290 and looking for an easy climb back to 2007 highs?
(b) It was probably WWII that ended the Great Depression for good. And it was probably a combination of high rates (which encouraged savings + discouraged debt) and technological innovation (Microsoft, Intel, Apple) that jump-started another Boom at the beginning of the Eighties. All JMHO, of course. I don't yet 'see' the catalyst that gets us out of the Great Recession.
(c) So J6P hasn't been buying into this rally? It's too early to call J6P 'dumb money.' Are we talking about the J6P that buys at the highs/sells at the lows, or the J6P with enough common sense to hold back until he sees a reason to buy stocks? He's not trading, after all.
Having said all of the above, I'm willing to buy into a high-volume, broad-based rally with clear institutional support.
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TOF- Makes sense. Man, what a weekend for the 49ers. I swear I was 16 again watching that game.
ReplyDelete2nd- I was thinking the catalyst thingy this weekend.
It will probably be to late for stocks, but the catalyst has to be home values.
ReplyDelete2nd, agree WW2 ended 1930's depression, not Keynesian Economics. I also think WW3 will take us out of this one with the next war coming in 3-5 years.
ReplyDeleteRavens vs Niners, Brother vs Brother, Super Bowl 2012. Go Ravens
In the mean time hit and run trading for most positions.
Barron's roundtable is free this week.
Likely catalysts- just typing out loud:
ReplyDelete(a) WWIII, which cuts the unemployment rate in half virtually overnight.
(b) Another painful period of (Volckerian) high rates, forcing the average American family to hunker down/work hard/save.
(c) I can't think of anything else.
What's wrong with quiet evenings spent reading a book, playing a board game, learning an instrument, or just bullshitting on the back deck? Driving a 10-year-old car down to the river for a few hours of hiking, boating, and catching up with friends? A walk in the evening?
Money buys too many distractions, and ultimately, little pleasure.
t3d- I see we both came up with WWIII independently. Which lends credence to that scenario.
ReplyDeleteHang Seng up +1.8%. WTF.
ReplyDeleteI've read all of Kass' reasons to rally, chief among them the 'attractive valuations' of stocks at this point. What if he's wrong? What's attractive about current multiples if we're on the cusp of social unrest and sweeping change?
ReplyDeleteLet's take a hard look at America today. 50% unemployment among young blacks? Just not right. Schools laying off teachers left and right. Cities going bankrupt. Vacant storefronts. Stop me if I sound too Grym. What exactly does the market see 6-24 months down the road to justify a move to SPX 1500, 1900, 2600 within 6-24 months?
Here's another thought. Let's say I stay in cash for the next 18 months, and miss the next +15% move in the SPX. But I also miss the -50% move that quickly follows.
ReplyDeleteI hate to say it, but the 1982-2000 bull run may have been 'it' for my generation?
ReplyDelete2nd- 49ers win the super bowl?
ReplyDelete2nd - Just based on the past 100+ years of trading, there has never been 3 big down moves (35% or more) before a further bull advance. Not saying it won't happen now but the odds are stacked against it.
ReplyDeleteHaving said that, the move from 1982 to 2000 (or 2007 for the DJIA) was much larger than any of the advances before it. A 20 bagger on the DJIA from 1982 to 2007...the biggest before then was the 10 bagger from 1942 to 1966...and it traded sideways for 16 years after that point. Add 16 years or so to 2007 and you have another 10 years to go of roller coaster trading.
Who the hell knows man.
There's much to be said for past performance, but we all know how that works when talking about the markets. We could as easily have said in 1982 that there had never been a 20-bagger in the indexes within one generation.
ReplyDeleteMark- Unlike years past, where I might have learned enough in idle chit chat to at least know what someone was referring to when they said 'Go Niners,' this past Friday I just nodded distractedly when someone said just that to me. What are Vegas odds on the Super Bowl?
ReplyDelete17 year cycle take 1982 and go 17 years back and repeat. Take 1982 and go 17 years forward gives us a strong clue to when things will change for the better, target range 2016-2018. Time will tell.
ReplyDelete2nd, I personally do not see how we can ever do Volcker rate increase like that again. The reason is simple, our deficit would explode. Why, if memory serves me our debt to GDP in the 70's was around 36% today it is not far off from par. I'm convinced that the FED will takes down the road of the Japanese experience of the last 25 years. Inflate or default, take your choice.
What will move equities big again, watch for QE3 while we wait for the 17 year cycle to end.
FED will take us down the road of the Japanese experience of the last 25 years.
ReplyDeleteT3D - QE3 may be like pushing on a rope.
ReplyDelete2nd - I am sympathetic to your macro concerns. Thinking all mutual fund buy-and-holders will be a sorry lot. Until we get over the great divide.
My tech post from the last blog:
"Three days ago I purchased a low end tablet on sale at Big Lots. $130 for a Nextbook 7" Android 2.3. Also is an e-book reader. It's been a bit of fun with a lot of learning and hassle. Actually these things are amazing but I do not yet know whether it will download my Scottrade Elite Trading Platform. Not to worry, I am pretty much a fixed base operator. May be one of the few who do not own a cell phone (tried it years ago but had few calls)."
Illni, agree and think each successive time it becomes less effective, but the money has to go somewhere. Where do you think it will go?
ReplyDeletePort sent me some interesting stuff as a PDF. Any takers?
ReplyDelete2nd- Not sure, but the 9ers are favored Sun. by 2 1/2....And I just realized it's also my b-day!!
ReplyDeleteMark, I'm a taker. Did you go to the game? I'm a Ravens fan being from Baltimore, Patriots here we come.
ReplyDeleteOn the way T3D. Yeah, had great seats. What a day!!
ReplyDeleteThanks Mark, yeah that was the best game I saw all year, what a 4th quarter with all the lead changes plus your home team winning.
ReplyDeleteWLL, I was reading about this a few hours on Friday came to same conclusion as Robear about it being the new BEXP. Is about 80% oily and you can learn more @ http://www.whiting.com/ and read/view their corporate presentation.
ReplyDeleteThanks PORT, agree with their assessment with KBR and the Aust LNG build out, perhaps MDR will benefit too. Two to keep an eye on.
MOG also really likes SM.
ReplyDeleteMark - Happy birthday bro! The big one right?
ReplyDeleteBy the way, I was this close to putting a big bet of $500 (for me, at least when it comes to sports given I don't bet sports) on the Giants to win it all prior to the Cowboys regular season game. Odds were 25 to 1 at the time. I just had a feeling that the NFC East was the best division despite their records...they all beat up on themselves and I thought if the Eagles or Giants could get in they had a really good chance of doing some major damage.
Mark you have mail. Talks about NG and has info on KBR & MDR, feel free to share.
ReplyDeleteyou bet, MAD's thoughts
ReplyDeleteCrude 75-110 range, elevated because of Iran but no way US will bomb them, Israel might.
Natty, got as low as $1.90 in the past (I didn't check but sounds close enough), there could be some rallies but nowhere to go for awhile. My thoughts to add to it, over 80% of my storage is hedged to come out next winter now and I bet a lot of others have done the same. Maybe not as aggressive as us but I'm so much more focused on just paying the demand charges that I'm not worried about the big home run spreads. Prompt month drops but next winter drops with it. The whole forward curve has come down because producers just keep producing. We've been wearing shorts a lot here in the south so winter temps are above normal. Basis is flat which means there isn't much money to make on transport spreads (thats the geographical location difference, Texas vs Louisiana, or Texas/OK to Chicago). I think the next big hurdle that might drive prices up would be more regulatory in nature like say no fracing. Given all that info, the one thing that bothers me the most is that we find natty shale plays all over the world. That's why BB's GASFRAC interest me because lots of places have water shortages.
enuff natty, MAD thinks S&P range bound, i forget the numbers exactly but more like 1020- 1360ish.
hmmm, now I'm forgetting the rest of the stuff, been too focused on 4th grade homework.
2nd, the best time to buy is often when you are feeling the most negative.
ReplyDeleteAfter 12 years of a market going nowhere, bonds outperforming stocks, commodities outperforming, governments now printing money, I see it as almost a given that this will flow into stocks.
Having said that, risk management is always key. I'd buy 25% now, then either ride the uptrend or average down into a pullback. in my experience the people who do the worst in the market are dogmatic about where things are going when really none of us know. As Benjamin Graham says in his classic Value Investing book, there is a lot of risk in being completely out of the market due to inflation risk, dollar devaluation risk, etc.
oh yeah, more MAD, the reason it was so quiet from Europe is because they shut down for a couple of weeks around Christmas, now we're getting news flow again. And he thinks we're much closer to a top than a bottom on the SPY and DIA but no comments on revisiting Mar 2009 lows.
ReplyDeleteMAD's comments make sense to me. I pretty much agree with jessee though, you know whats going on, just watch the charts. I was thinking about my big fear of being long, even with stops, suppose we get a flash crash? That's just part of the risk/reward. You can make some good change before and after if you watch the charts. If you get stopped out, what's wrong with reentering over the next day or two if the setup looks right? PLUS, (did TEAM and/or DAVID say this}, take a smaller position where you won't make much but your in the game with a little money on the line. These are arguments I have with myself of course.
BB's comment "bonds ourperforming stocks" reminded me of another MAD comment. He says the bond market if forecasting a recession/deflation while the stock market is forecast happy times (don't remember his exact wording, maybe GROWTH). He tends to favor the bond market because they do more analytical research.
ReplyDeleteMe, I have no idea. What do you guys think of the above statements? The FED isn't buying bonds because things are good but it makes sense that equities would rally with low interest rates AND devaluing the dollar. A conundrum.
last post and i'm gone for the night,
ReplyDelete2nd, this might interest you, i'm still looking at it
the boss listened to a presentation the other day where these guys buy good hi dividend stocks, they buy slightly out of the money puts and sell slightly out of the money calls. They said they make about 10% but I'm trying to figure out how they could do that consistently and I don't get it. Seems like you would still need a market bias. INTC is one of their favorites and he made it sound like they do short term options, either monthly or every 2 months. I would think that if the market for a hi divy stock like INTC is moving up then you could make 10% but seems like you would loose 10% in a market grinding down. I may see if I can get any test data from them because it seems like a wash over a 10 yr period. You just can't get reward without risk.
I'm sure you guys think I'm nuts and really don't have any idea what I'm talking/writing about, but this might sum up what I'm really worried about when it comes to the USA...
ReplyDeleteKendra is playing CYO basketball now and had a practice tonight. She's playing on the top team which is very competitive. At practice today the coaches daughter practiced in UGG's. You know damn well he fought that like hell and in the end HIS daughter didn't have enough respect for the game or at the least the practice to wear the proper cloths. We ARE fucked.
Shanghai +4%
ReplyDeleteGetchasome YOKU if you can. SORL works just as well too.
"I hate to say it, but the 1982-2000 bull run may have been 'it' for my generation?"
ReplyDeleteJohn Mauldin says that the bond vigilantes will rebel about the US debt MUCH sooner than 2020. In fact, he is predicting that 2013 will be the year when the US debt will be scrutinized, the yields will explode and US *will* have to either default or seriously start inflating away the debt. That means that by 2020 the debt problem will be solved one way or another, and a new 20-year bull run will begin, fueled by biotech (IBB is already trading at its all-time high, as the smart money is positioning itself in advance of the biotech bubble).
David - I have to say that I COMPLETELY disagree with Mauldin. I would be willing to bet a helluva lot of money that this doesn't happen.
ReplyDeleteMy "sea change" notion is still in play -- $USD rallied like crazy on Monday and gave back one half of that rally today, but gold and S&P are already higher than when they were *before* the rally began on Friday. No one is scared of the Big Bad $USD Wolf...
ReplyDeleteMaybe the reason equities and gold/silver are moving up with $USD is that the *reason* why $USD is going up is because EURO is going down, which makes Europe more competitive and thus improves its chances of growing (economically) out of its debt problem (while paying back its debt with a cheaper currency)...
What exactly you don't think will happen, TOF?
ReplyDeleteBy "this" I mean "bond vigilantes", the much overused and overstated phrase, rebelling about the US debt. The US is still the most desired place to live in the world...our population continues to grow in some cases at the expense of other countries like Japan etc.
ReplyDeleteBy "this" i mean the bond vigilantes coming after the US debt. I really hate the phrase bond vigilantes by the way...
ReplyDeletethe US is one of the most desires places to live and the popn growth will fuel growth for a while longer in the US. home prices will be supported by this growth...
sorry for duplicate.
ReplyDeletei just think Mauldin is completely wrong man.
any of you guys watch this show "Bar Rescue"? It's a great show...
ReplyDeleteguys I think we need to focus a lot of energy on going long china stocks that have been down big. i think the tide is turning. I think the China markets have bottomed for at least the next several months and even Muddy Waters mentioned they're looking to go long some stocks in China. Just about everyone has given up on China small caps but most of them are down at least 80%. we all knew there would be a time to go long these stocks but for the past 18 months everyone that tried going long got hurt. i think the tide has officially turned.
ReplyDeleteso far i like SORL and YONG and ONP but I'm still researching them. CGA is interesting too but it may have serious acctg issues.
If ONP can make it above $4 in the near future, then the 2-year chart suggests that it will explode upwards. Thus, putting a buy stop at $4 might be one way to play it...
ReplyDeleteHere comes 1300 on S&P futures...
ReplyDeleteSilver and gold are also doing nicely -- let's see if AUMN can hit $10 tomorrow... :)
ReplyDeleteLooks like Friday's jump in $USD was caused by nervous shorts closing their positions -- all those gains have been given up tonight. Now $USD has a nice triple top formation with highs on 1/8, 1/11 and 1/15.
ReplyDeleteI suppose a success of recent bond auctions at Italy, Spain and France suggests that the banks ARE using the LTRO funds to buy government debt, and thus the ECB "undercover" QE3 *is* working. The markets are sniffing all that liquidity pouring into the system and are going bananas...
Spot copper finally broke out tonight to a new high since its bottom on October 4 -- the world economy keeps growing...
ReplyDeleteOk a few China cockroaches I found:
ReplyDelete*GURE - website has been down for at least one week; financials say they have more cash on hand than mkt cap and that they are profitable but with the site down for that long, thats a huge red flag in my book
*COGO - don't walk, run away from this one
*NEWN - significant competitive threats and deteriorating business, stay away
DNN -
ReplyDelete7:25 AM Denison Mines (DNN) announces that it expects a 40% Y/Y increase in uranium production this year. The company also plans to "aggressively" pursue exploration and developments projects in the U.S., Canada, Mongolia, and Zambia. Shares +13.4% premarket.
small position
Down in Aruba this week and they love the US$. Even though they have their own currency (the Florin), hardly anyone uses it.
ReplyDeletePort, I'd be a bit concerned about high-dividend stocks here. So much money is chasing yield now and Jeff Saut over at Raymond James last year stated something to the effect that utilities, telco's and consumer staples were very dramatically overvalued and cyclical, energy and something else were dramatically undervalued - you can find it on his web site.
Not that you can't make money with that strategy, I just think its going to be a lot harder going forward than its been the last 5 years.
AUMN - $9 in pre-market...
ReplyDeleteDNN - Up 16% in pre-market!
ReplyDeleteChina - TOF, throw our your China ideas, some are dogs though.
ReplyDeleteCYD is one I've been watching, and XIN seems to be doing well for some reason....
Those are nice looking charts (CYD and XIN) CP.
ReplyDeleteGuys check out OMX as well...could be a nice flyer on a rebound in the US.
Also, not sure if I passed this along on SKUL:
"1/12/12 11:42 (Dow Jones) Skullcandy (SKUL) CFO Mitch Edwards says the headphone maker is seeing greater opportunities to expand abroad and is getting more retail shelf space at outlets like Best Buy (BBY) and RadioShack (RSH) as its products sell at a faster pace. SKUL is closely tied to the increasing role that music and audio plays in youth culture,and Edwards tells a conference the trend of consuming music at all times bodes well for the company. He adds SKUL is aiming to become "a truly household name and global brand over the next couple of years," with recent hires and acquisitions highlighting that strategy. After weakness earlier this week,SKUL is up 1.4% today at $12.66. (john.kell@ dowjones.com) "
Again, the $11.80 level has been defending 4 times over the past few months...this makes it a really low risk trade going long here. Apparently the IPO lockup expires today and there was fear that insiders would sell, which is probably why the shares are so cheap. I'd recommend checking it out for a trade at least.
So of the China stocks I looked at the ones I liked the best are:
SCEI
CLNT (Jesse's pick)
ONP
DANG
SORL
CDTI
And I also like DHT for shipping (huge yield, trading below liquidation value, still profitable).
CCL - Sinking!?!?
ReplyDeleteWPRT b/o blue sky above
ReplyDeletelong
HII - Kickin butt, maybe a good play if you think the US gov won't have any trouble sustaining it's growth rate?
ReplyDeleteRupee - Still moving up against the dollar! Yipee!
ReplyDeleteLooking for a reason to buy ANR here. The chart shows me nothing, but my gut says it will work here for a trade. A ton of 25K shares traded from 10:05 to now.
ReplyDeleteWhen does ANR report?
ReplyDeleteno clue, and that's 25k bar shares
ReplyDeleteFinviz says Feb. 6.
ReplyDeleteDNN, I hope your long Kyle, all uranium ripping today.
ReplyDeleteCCJ
URA
USU
DNN
I have not played these since my loss on DNN due to Fukushima, DNN a good spec. Later gators.
T3d - ANR had a ridiculously low RSI(7) of about 7 back in August. Typically that is max fear setting in. That doesn't mean that it won't go lower (as it has) but that the absolute panic trading is out of the stock. I think going long here for at least several months should work just fine man. Same goes with BTU and WLT. Ignore PCX as it has always been a money losing operation.
ReplyDeleteIPSU - Here's another true POS stock....
ReplyDeleteANR - Just broke to the downside of it's wedge that ran to near 100% completion, isn't that normally a sign of a false breakout(to the downside, in this case) and more likely to morph into a new formation?
ReplyDeleteChina is on/in vacation and so not many buyers/traders?
All right boyz...at the close.
ReplyDeleteTTM - Sure are quite a few gaps up in this chart...
ReplyDeleteRIMM - Just keeps on climbing.
ReplyDeleteBTU - Didn't this one win a contract in Mongolia?
ReplyDeleteREDF is in play looks like $10.5 is a logical stop
ReplyDeleteSORL ticking up. I suspect this one runs to $3.5 within the next week or two.
ReplyDeleteTOF, ANR, appreciate your take.
ReplyDeleteJust trying to help the cause T3d but wtf do I know!?! I'm the guy that sold bought 60k shs WNC at $6 and stopped myself out at $5, only to watch it rip to $9!
ReplyDeleteANR long starter position, let's see if I can build on this w/o trading.
ReplyDeleteTOF, that's trading, the only way I know around it is not trade so large a position to give greater staying power of your conviction. TOF not telling you what to do, just saying. It is always such a fine line, but your trading skills and calls are some of the best I have ever seen on any blog in 10 years. FWIW
ANR sold, will look to buy back today
ReplyDeletethanks T3d! yeah my biggest problem is position size. i would probably have better returns by keeping sizes smaller.
ReplyDeletedudes - that POS CSTR is building what I think they call a wedge (not really sure actually what its called). anyway, it's basically putting in a series of lower highs and higher lows since last summer. You can draw a line from the highs in July 2011 down through the highs from October and again in December (I'm excluding that spike in October because to me it's an outlier) and the line extends through to just above today's price in the $46-$47 area. You can do the same from the lows in August and throw the series of higher lows and it comes to around $41. I suspect volatility will decrease as earnings near, which are in about 2.5 weeks. Perhaps there will be a move outside of this range first but in my opinion it will most likely be a fakeout. I'm getting interested in trading this from the long side because of my knowledge of the story from a fundamental perspective.
keep an eye on NQ as well...first line of support should come around $6.4-$6.5
ReplyDeleteSKUL picking up steam...$14 first target if it can clear that then $16.2
ReplyDeleteDownside stop out pt is below $11.7 on SKUL
ReplyDeleteThe one reason, and its a big one, why I can't get long OMX is I just have to imagine the online retailers are killing them like most other B&M retailers.
ReplyDeleteCramer is tweeting he likes HEK still...Looks like the MM is taking on supply here.
ReplyDeleteIs that you on the bid for MDW @ 2.00 T3D??? :)
ReplyDeleteLooks like the dip just passed for people looking to get in. if this is indeed a runaway bull then these are probably the opportunities people are going to get to hop in...
ReplyDeleteKGC
ReplyDelete97600 on EDGX Mark?
ReplyDeleteOh forgot to mention sold WPRT earlier, I like playing movement.
ReplyDeletethis one you could tuck away, going to 100, lower NG big positive
Alright let's see if the market can put in a bottom here...lots of momo plays selling off hard. Look at REDF and TZOO. could just be nervous nellies.
ReplyDeleteZNGA, MITK holding in strong on this selloff...
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/where-investor-money-going-under-191550285.html;_ylt=AtmbhLvOHY5v86fZUGL3fHCiuYdG;_ylu=X3oDMTQzMWJqMjdjBG1pdANGaW5hbmNlIEZQIEp1bWJvdHJvbiBMaXRlBHBrZwM0OWU1OWQ4NS00MTMyLTMzNjgtYmI5YS0wNDBiNTkzYWFiMDEEcG9zAzEEc2VjA2p1bWJvdHJvbgR2ZXIDZjZmYjVjNTAtNDE0Ni0xMWUxLWI3MWYtYTNlZGRiZDhiMzA1;_ylg=X3oDMTFvdnRqYzJoBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3NlY3Rpb25zBHRlc3QD;_ylv=3
ReplyDeleteThis is why I don't believe it when I see sentiment readings that say things are bullish. Maybe traders are bullish but the average person ain't.
Why are the markets selling off? AUMN started the day so nicely...
ReplyDeleteANR long 19.40
ReplyDeleteI possible explanation for this sell-off is that many people had a 1300 target for S&P, and once it was reached this morning, they started taking profits, with all other assets being driven down because of "usual" correlations with S&P...
ReplyDeleteT3D- Yeah ;)
ReplyDeletei wouldn't sweat it David, although the reversal in AUMN is brutal. those reversals suck.
ReplyDeleteBidding 3K HEK @ 5.84.
ReplyDeleteBidding 3000 XCO @ 7.99
ReplyDeleteTOF -- I am watching the intraday moves in the market and reading the daily news just for entertainment purposes. Now that the AUMN folks figured out how to expand the output of their existing mills and announced an amazing production guidance for 2012/2013 (becoming cashflow positive starting 3Q 2012 with an annualized production that quarter of 1.5M AgEqOz, and then steadily increasing their production to 3.5M AgEqOz in 2013 and 4.0M AgEqOz in 2014), their stock price will HAVE to rise to new highs in 2012 and possibly to $50 in 2013. They have removed a HUGE risk factor in their outlook associated with building a new 2000 tpd mill, showing investors that they will become amazingly profitable even BEFORE that mill comes online. Naturally, once they deploy their mill and their production jumps to 8M AgEqOz in 2015, their stock will have to hit $100 by the end of 2015. So the current fluctuations in AUMN price are just entertainment for me...
ReplyDeleteOK, both filled.
ReplyDeleteDid something bad happened in the financial system today? Let's see...
ReplyDelete1. The TED spread made a new low for 2012, so the banking system in Europe (and in the world) is fine.
2. The CDX.NA.HY spreads made a new low for 2012, so the credit markets in US are also fine.
So no worries, folks -- today's sell-off should be bought.
Earnings:
ReplyDeleteBTU 24 jan
ANR 24 feb
DB downgraded ANR around 3PM today
alot of vol in it today, biggest pos is the hold of 19.25 low, long but leery
Sharkie's PAL took it in the solar plexes today.
ReplyDeletePAL - "North American Palladium to discontinue production at Sleeping Giant Mine"
ReplyDeleteI think this is probably a good idea, not to throw more good money at a clapped-out gold mine...
HEK off AH @ 6.14. I'll take the lucky $1K.
ReplyDelete1300 - Well, wasn't the whole reason for the August sell off due to problems in Europe? Okay, so has any of that been resolved to the extent that this latest rally deserves any respect?
ReplyDeleteNot that the magnitude of sell off was justifiable but quite frankly, I'm a little baffled at the prospect of further upside right now.
XCO...Hard to believe I sold this sucker @ 20 last year.
ReplyDeleteHEK - Okay, I guess January is a repeat of November, for HEK? Looks like the crowd gave up as the 20SMA failed...
ReplyDeleteHow Fing funny is this...The first story line @ Finviz for FTWR...
ReplyDelete17-Jan-12 03:08PM FiberTower revenue dropping $180,000 per month, CFO quitting this month at bizjournals.com +28.95%
CP- I still like it LONGGGGGG term, but it could be dead money for a year or 2 and scalping a quick grand is fine by me.
ReplyDeleteFCX,DELL,AET,UTX - Seeing a lot of breakouts to the upside out of wedge triangles. Is it the real thing?
ReplyDeleteCramer...
ReplyDeleteHeckmann (HEK_): "They have been weighed down by a big secondary coming. I want you in on the secondary. I think Heckmann works."
HTF does he know a secondary is coming????
Illini- I noted the FCX break also.
ReplyDeleteFolks, take a look at the aluminum price chart:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.kitcometals.com/charts/aluminum_historical_large.html#1year
To me, it looks like it broke out of the pattern of lower highs and lower lows and the new uptrend has begun. If you want to make sure, you can wait for the spot price to rise above $1. But watch it carefully, 'cause it can get there tonight (it is currently at $0.982). And if the downtrend has indeed stopped, then NOW is the time to buy AA. I already bought some June $8 calls on it. I would have also sold July $10 puts (which I am sure will expire), but I don't have cash to back up those puts...
The FCX breakout nicely corresponds to the breakout in copper:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.kitcometals.com/charts/copper_historical_large.html#1year
Honestly I don't like it one bit that Dick Heckmann has been on CNBC twice now in about 2 weeks so the 2ndary must be coming...
ReplyDeleteIt's beautiful for me to say goodnight to my girls and 2 minutes later walk into their rooms to turn the light off and they are sound asleep.
ReplyDelete