Wednesday, January 18, 2012
1/18/12 I was drowned, I was washed up and left for dead
What attracts me to stocks beaten senseless by a tide of selling and left for dead?
Almost anything in the NGas sector would qualify. I like SJT for the 8% yield while awaiting recovery in gas prices. In fact, I doubled down at 19.35 today, and will keep 2000 shares in the closet for an extended holding period. The day will come when a cross-fire hurricane causes prices to spike like Jack Flash howling in the driving rain, and I'll be posting 'It's a gas gas gas!'
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holy sh*t! SJT RSI(7) = 4.4
ReplyDeletelast time i saw something like that was in August on WNC at $5.00 to 5.50...it briefly went lower two months later but it's now 60% higher.
That's the kind of holy sh*t I like to buy.
ReplyDeleteIn fact, that's why they call it holy sh*t.
ReplyDeletehttp://seekingalpha.com/article/320056-opportunities-from-the-crash-in-natural-gas
ReplyDeleteanother interesting article on resource investing and what not from same author:
ReplyDeletehttp://seekingalpha.com/article/278697-profiting-from-physical-assets-in-a-resource-constrained-world-rules-and-picks
2nd- I tried to figure out WTF SJT actually did. Wow, that's one complicated play.
ReplyDeleteSJT - It's a traded trust. Going down with the price of natty. When will it end? No one knows but petrol energy is what it is.... a finite resource.
ReplyDeleteillini...Yeah, sure, but did everyone just figure out natty was crashing over the last few days?? :))
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't be surprised if SJT hits bottom tomorrow. I may have to get in on this one...total capitulation here.
ReplyDeleteHolly Cow!!! It's a natty gold rush I tell ya' a gold rush!!!
ReplyDeleteSurging prices for shale gas and oil properties in the U.S. are turning owners of deposits as far away as Australia into potential takeover targets.
While shale assets in Texas sold at $25,000 an acre this year and a holding in Ohio and Pennsylvania changed hands at about $15,000 last month, shale properties owned by Australia’s Beach Energy Ltd. can be bought for $406 per acre, according to data compiled by Bloomberg and DNB Markets. Energy companies are pursuing unconventional assets such as shale after the average price for Brent oil futures reached a record in 2011 and the cost to find and develop oil jumped, the data show.
With explorers from Senex Energy Ltd. (SXY) to Drillsearch Energy Ltd. (DLS) also owning pieces of an estimated 400 trillion cubic feet of recoverable shale-gas resources, Australia is poised to commercialize its holdings on a “large scale,” according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. While the country’s explorers are trailing their U.S. counterparts in development by several years and face higher drilling costs, Asian demand for natural gas may lure energy and power producers to Australia’s shale properties, Commonwealth Bank of Australia said.
“This could be the next big thing,” Mark Carnegie, former head of Lazard Ltd.’s Australian private equity business, said from Sydney. Carnegie manages a A$170 million ($177 million) venture capital fund at M.H. Carnegie & Co., which owns about 11 percent of Perth-based shale explorer Strike Energy Ltd. (STX)
“There’s no reason the economics shouldn’t be the same in Australia as they are in the Eagle Ford,” shale region in Texas, he said. “If we get anything like that we’re going to end up with a phenomenal return.”
TOF- Yeah, I'm afraid to say I might have to take a shot also. I did spend some real time on it and it seems there is a chance it could go belly up though.
ReplyDeleteActually I shouldn't say that...More like the divy goes bye bye.
ReplyDeleteYesterday TOF wrote: "Damn..Dave Landry is now charging $8 for each week of commentary!?! I gotta get in that racket..."
ReplyDeleteThe Thursday chart show is free on Thursday AM. Then he stores it on his server which is charging him for bandwidth so he charges for it if you don't catch it live. It's usually an hour to an hour and a half, so that takes some space. Answer? Catch it live!
The market in a minute each AM is free as well.
We're snowed in here. In the middle of my pasture the snow is over my knee. Now it's in the 20's and everything is ice. About now people in W. Washington are waiting for rain.
ReplyDeleteMark - I'm all talk...I honestly have no edge on anything in the natural resources / energy sectors other than coal.
ReplyDeleteI owned SJT in 2009. I bought after everything plunged. I bought it at about these same levels because of the high yield and big drop. It went down farther and cut its dividend to I think a penny a month. Of coarse the world was ending then, but strangely, Natty was trading higher than it is today :). I still think my broker didn't pay me the last $10.00 dividend they owed me. No wonder Effen WFC beat earnings. I sold not because of my under waterness, but because of all the added tax forms and complexity of a royal trust. I think if you are willing to do it though the dividends are not taxed like regular dividends. IF I hung on and sold at the highs i could of made 30% plus 10% in dividends in a year. A real nice return considering the natty toxic environment. Imagine what a year long return could be if natty bounces some how. I would investigate why there is a difference in the SJT sell off and LINE holding up strong. Blood brothers with about the same yeild. Strange divergence. Hedge book?
ReplyDeleteThe CDX.NA.HY spread had a large decline today, hitting yet another new low for 2012. When the credit market for junk bonds is rallying, the risk is ON.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.gmo.com/websitecontent/JGLetter_ShortestLetterEver_3Q11.pdf - latest GMO quarterly report written in December. I missed its release...
ReplyDeleteSo I got my severance package today. 5 months severance plus I can file for unemployment. This gives me the chance to work on my business and still trade for the next several months, with a nice backup plan in place. Very happy about this.
I think I'm going to take a small vacation from the markets to clear my head and get ready for my next chapter in my working life.
Classic gap up this morning in IRE. it hit minor resistance at $5.07 then dropped and now it's gapping over resistance.
ReplyDeleteBakken stocks - Anyone got a list?
ReplyDeleteCCH - Heading up!
ReplyDeleteSDOW - Lowered my buy stop limit to $24.70
ReplyDeleteHopefully I can keep lowering my price and increasing my share size all the way to S&P 1500
FCX - Why is this thing red?!?!?
ReplyDeleteFSG - $27.72 seems to be an important number.
ReplyDeleteFCX- Yeah, not a good sign for bulls.
ReplyDeleteWell at least MT and PKX are nicely green, just a little early profit taking in FCX this morning?
ReplyDeleteWould like to get back in HEK, but with all the Cramer/CNBC bullshit there's probably a ton of trapped longs.
ReplyDeleteHEK - I don't know about that one, it just doesn't seem right to me shoving toxics down a well. Cramer is a complete moron though, didn't realize he was bashing HEK...
ReplyDeleteHEK - That lower trend line is right at $5.75, I've got doubts about it making it there though.
ReplyDeleteSolar stocks - Retesting support?
ReplyDeleteMITK - Jan 21st Max Pain is $10, looked like the move up was canceled yesterday but today looks like a complete "change of heart", doesn't it?
ReplyDeleteYeah, nobody's monkeying with that one either!
CREE - I thought this dinosaur was pronounced dead?!?!?
ReplyDeletewow goog is having a bit of a sell off. a earnings miss?
ReplyDeleteFTK is near all time highs and HEK is selling off. The reason behind the divergence intrigues me.
Wow a 3 hour dry spell between posts is the market that boring? Are people having trouble posting still? Strange I was not able to post from work for a couple of months and now I can, but on google chrome only.
ReplyDeleterb- You're commenting under the wrong post.
ReplyDelete