Thursday, January 19, 2012
1/19/12 Light My IRE
You know that it would be untrue
You know that I would be a liar
If I was to say to you
Girl, we couldn't get much higher
Come on baby, light my IRE
Come on baby, light my IRE
Try to set the port on fire
The time to hesitate is through
No time to wallow in the mire
Try now we can only lose
And our port become a funeral pyre
Apologies to RoBear, the Dude I should be thanking for pulling me out of the SJT mire. My excuse is I had no way of checking sources while at work, as I remain unable to access the Comments section under each post.
In reply to your question, tof, I lost about -1400 trading 2000 shares of SJT. It could easily have been 2-3x that had I not cut my losses at the open. I took the proceeds from that sale and put my chips on IRE, for a quick +400.
So I'm celebrating a (truncated) loss of -1000 by downing two airline-sized bottles of Kilbeggan Irish Whiskey from last December's Kris Kringle gift exchange:
http://www.drinkspirits.com/whiskey/kilbeggan-a-better-irish-blended-whiskey/
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Picked up 1000 shares of AMAT after hours @ 12.45. 50/50 odds favorable comments from analysts re INTC's capex plans will cause it to pop momentarily.
ReplyDeleteAMAT..Could go if it clears the 365. Nice.
ReplyDeleteIt's a stock I'm at least willing to hold longer than a few minutes.
ReplyDeleteI'm also assuming, perhaps naively, that the INTC capex news was in fact a 'surprise,' and has yet to be priced in.
ReplyDeleteSo the list picks are doing well.
ReplyDeleteBAC was supposed to be a trigger at 6.90 but I had already traded it a few days ago and then bought more at 6.71. Woke up to BAC at 7.25 and took it of the table. Reloaded before the close at 6.91.
DANG if DANG didn't go over $7, (closed at 7.29) which is where I took partial profits (7.06) as I thought it would see some resistance at $7. Shows how wrong a trader can be. Oh well, you can't lose money taking profits.
IAG is a short and I only shorted 500 shares, but I'm up 250 on it and expect it can go a lot lower.
CNSL was a buy last week right after the div payment. It pays $1.55 a share and I loaded up at $18 and held some shares from $17.70 so I'm good holding it. If it pulls back I'll buy more.
I never mention CHSCP but I have held it forever from $25 and it has a killer div and is at $29.60 or so.
Of course right about the time I start feeling good about everything it's time for a correction, so I'm still cautious.
IRE today was unreal but by the time I saw it I didn't think it would go higher....yet it did precisely that. Crazy.
Also took 2000 shares of BAC @ 6.92...
ReplyDeleteThis is trading with blogmates at its best.
ReplyDelete"Of course right about the time I start feeling good about everything it's time for a correction, so I'm still cautious."
ReplyDeleteTell me about it!
Kendra isn't afraid of cereal killers.
ReplyDelete2nd, without saying something I'm not supposed to openly say, I'll just mention that that is a suggested buy. Although a service short got mentioned today in the chart show by the chart show guy, but it had triggered a couple days ago.
ReplyDeleteGot it. Believe it or not, I posted my comment before reading yours. Your comment served to reinforce the buy.
ReplyDeleteBAC owes me about $11K.
ReplyDeleteCC - I remember your revelation about CHSCP on the BC blog ages ago. I researched it. Did not buy at the time. Thought it was a bit too far above $25. What a blown opportunity. It has been a great "flight to safety stock". I have kept track of it sporadically ever since. Thanks for the post.
ReplyDeleteBruce Krasting devoted a post to the "freak" snowstorm and showed sat image showing how the "monster" extended almost back to Hawaii. In what part of Washington State do you live?
Pick up 20k shares, and you'll be repaid within a few weeks.
ReplyDeleteYeah, I figured as much. Of course you understand it's all on technicals and a chart, nothing fundamentally. But the chart is saying something as is the sector.
ReplyDeleteEntry 6.90/PT 8.30/stop 5.50 It would have to be pretty bad to stop out. I already traded it for quite a bit knowing we were watching it to trigger and that it had been around $5 not long ago, so momentum is on our side.
Guys - remember that article by Hulbert about BAC beating AAPL going forward? I wonder what the tally is now? I'd say it's still AAPL but the race is tight.
ReplyDeleteI think HW is looking poised to make a run. I need to check my notes from a few days ago since I have about $10k coming to me tomorrow via a portion of the up front severance pay.
talk about the mother of all long shots: IPII...take a stab of 5k shs or so and hope and pray that it makes it out of this mess intact. i remember losing about $2k back in 2006 on this thing at multiples higher than the current price.
ReplyDeleteCHSCP: I just looked at the the multiple year chart and realized it traded within a very tight range of a few bucks, it goes down after the div payment and then recoups it again while paying $2.00 a share.
ReplyDeleteHard to argue with 8% and low risk. Seamus was the one who suggested it at BC and he makes about $10K a year on it.
Yeah, they're calling it 'snowmageddon'. The snow isn't too bad but the ice we're having now is pretty dangerous. A lot of snapping trees and branches loaded with ice. I'm on Harstine Island, just north of Olympia. My daughter lives in Olympia and she doesn't have electricity right now. She does have a wood stove though so she isn't freezing or anything. My wife works for the school district and she gets this whole week off. We don't get this kind of weather often, but when we do it's a doozy.
This AM it was like a hockey arena outside. Everything is covered with a sheet of ice. Scary. I had to use hot water to get down the stairs of my deck. Our cars were frozen closed! They're calling for mid 40's and rain tomorrow, so it should be over soon. We can use that Hawaiian pineapple express.
Just got a short missive from Jesse...Looks like he's all in on UNG.
ReplyDeleteCC, Man it was terrible today in Tustoned. It was 72 and sunny, so it felt like 75. I walked on campus for lunch the coeds were only half naked instead of the usual 3/4s, so it was a bit of a disappointment.
ReplyDelete"All in on UNG." Didn't Napoleon say that at Waterloo?
Isn't that 'cased the campus?'
ReplyDeleteLOL, its going to be 1 above tonight here in central Illinois. A little snow on ground. No coeds in sight. They are at Bradley U. and all bundled up.
ReplyDeleteGuys-
ReplyDeleteHaven't had a chance to review the posts here over the past week or so during my travels in S. America.
I did notice a few things today, however.
I looked at the stocks that I highlighted here since January 3rd:
All solars up huge, HSOL 100%, SOL 70% etc. IGPG 55, DANG 50, RDN 50, RIG 50, JVA 40, IRE 25, coals down:( boo. At any rate, I saw lots of reversals today in an up market.
In any case, we've come a LONG, LONG way in a very short period. Looks like this sets us up for a breather at the very least (if not an all-out short term collapse) during 2012's bull market.
Very alarming is the Dow over 500 points above its 13wma today. In prior bull runs, when the Dow reaches 500-700 points above its 13wma, it has always "collapsed" back to its 13wma (before the next thrust. This sets the market up for quite a bit of downside.
To boot, VXN traded outside of its lower bolinger band today setting up a sell signal.
SOX is WAY, WAY out of its upper bolinger band setting up a sell signal.
We also see a nasdaq exhaustion gap today w/ rsi (14) of 71 which has preceded pretty much every big fall in the past.
I see lots of traders entering late to the party and now exhibiting heightened levels of euphoria. The time to play was 19 days ago. Me thinks we need a rest for the next round of setups.
Cheers
Guys-
ReplyDeleteHaven't had a chance to review the posts here over the past week or so during my travels in S. America.
I did notice a few things today, however.
I looked at the stocks that I highlighted here since January 3rd:
All solars up huge, HSOL 100%, SOL 70% etc. IGPG 55, DANG 50, RDN 50, RIG 50, JVA 40, IRE 25, coals down:( boo. At any rate, I saw lots of reversals today in an up market.
In any case, we've come a LONG, LONG way in a very short period. Looks like this sets us up for a breather at the very least (if not an all-out short term collapse) during 2012's bull market.
Very alarming is the Dow over 500 points above its 13wma today. In prior bull runs, when the Dow reaches 500-700 points above its 13wma, it has always "collapsed" back to its 13wma (before the next thrust. This sets the market up for quite a bit of downside.
To boot, VXN traded outside of its lower bolinger band today setting up a sell signal.
SOX is WAY, WAY out of its upper bolinger band setting up a sell signal.
We also see a nasdaq exhaustion gap today w/ rsi (14) of 71 which has preceded pretty much every big fall in the past.
I see lots of traders entering late to the party and now exhibiting heightened levels of euphoria. The time to play was 19 days ago. Me thinks we need a rest for the next round of setups.
Cheers
Placing a sell limit at $4.50 for the 1K shares of XWES I purchased at $3.50. Trying to reduce my margin debt...
ReplyDeletejesse - it's funny you say that because there was a good period where i was thinking the same thing: particularly as i watched CSTR, MITK, IRE all get euphoric at one pt and then reverse pretty hard. i suspect this whole week will be strong though.
ReplyDeleteAlso, placing a sell to open order at $1.00 for 10 March 2012 $2.50 calls on SORL. Slowly starting to scale out of my 8K shares...
ReplyDeleteJesse tell me if you make it to Uruguay and your thoughts. I have my eye's on that country for my retirement. Suppose to be muy tranqillo with a good cheap health care system and indoor plumbing.
ReplyDeleteThis NCT looks really interesting. It has spent some time in the doghouse but that yield is enticing.
ReplyDeleteRB- I'll send pics from Montevideo and Punta. Punta would be a GREAT GREAT place to set up shop between April and November (rents rise 10 fold "in season" when the debt-laden Europeans run the town.)
ReplyDeleteJesse can't wait for the pics. April to Nov would be great destination time for a tustoned native. Maybe i will get s discounted facelift and some lipo while I am at it.
ReplyDeletedudes another one that is VERY interesting is DTLK. could be a really good long term play.
ReplyDelete2nd - I almost pulled the trigger on SJT and quite frankly I think you should keep an open mind about hopping back in if you have conviction on that. It’s basically the same chart as Nat Gas, which is just silly oversold. The RSI(7) reached 2 today in SJT. I’ve seen 3 or 4 before but it’s really rare. I may take a flier on the space tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteSLB - Moving to the upside, GE/GOOG downside
ReplyDeleteAdded another 1k shs SKUL at $12.17 avg.
ReplyDeletegut feeling is we're going to 1,324 today
ReplyDeletewhich means we're going down cuz i'm the world's worst day trader
ReplyDeleteMOBI looks to be in play.
ReplyDeleteOn SKUL's chart what I'm seeing is still a series of slightly higher lows since mid December. With a massive short position in the stock (shorts make up about 50% of tradeable float) and with the company just reiterating guidance of about 50% rev growth and EPS of $0.93 for 2011, I think there is going to be a massive rally in this thing. The likely setup is that it breaks it's $11.79 lows, takes out some stops and then rips higher.
ReplyDeleteAll right TOF. I'll dip my toe @ 12.04 if it will let me.
ReplyDeleteAll right Skulboy, let's see where this can go.
ReplyDeleteGod damn they're banging hard on HEK.
ReplyDeleteHEK is doomed in my opinion. I could just never get on board with that one.
ReplyDeleteI say exterminate the rats causing problems inside the capitol beltway, always address the root causes:
ReplyDeletehttp://milliondollarway.blogspot.com/2012/01/dc-rat-extermination-program-i-cannot.html
SORL is taking the selling in stride. I like it. Must be David cashing in...
ReplyDelete1324 - Let's do it!
ReplyDeleteJapan may contract strategic commodities in an effort to weaken Yen:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/26eafad2-4297-11e1-97b1-00144feab49a.html#axzz1jxYWVioX
Top 10 fracking companies:
ReplyDeletehttp://milliondollarway.blogspot.com/2011/07/top-ten-fracking-companies.html
SDOW - I may have to lower my stop-limit bid again soon...
ReplyDeleteGL ladies...
ReplyDeleteLEN - Wow, that was one heck of a rally, wasn't it?
ReplyDeleteCP > Check out HOV
ReplyDeleteSold my HW at $2.56 from a couple of days ago...
ReplyDeleteHousing inventory at 7yr low?
ReplyDeleteCHOP - Now over the 200SMA
ReplyDeleteOne month the world is ending and bears win big time, next month bulls. So where's the truth?
ReplyDeleteUSG - Inverse H&S rally looks complete now.
ReplyDeleteGo SKUL baby!!!
ReplyDeleteMITK- C now live with RDC...Although the price action in the stock sucks.
COOL's guidance was not this bad. Might take a shot for about 5K shares.
ReplyDeleteDang hitting resistance where it should. Nice deep cup with a perfect JLO bottom base. Would like to see consolidation or a bear flag in the 7.50 to 6.50 range for a couple of days. 6.50 because 50% fib retrace on this current rally. I feel a 2.50 break out to $10 could happen very quickly. Of coarse it could happen today and I will be left behind just looking at the JLO bottom and wishing what could of been.
ReplyDeleteyo mark is c live nationwide? i think the buy at 200 dma is a good spot
ReplyDeletebig buys hitting the ask on skul...looks good so far.
ReplyDeleteTOF- Yeppers, nation wide now. SKUL looks real good.
ReplyDeleteDamn, the VIX is under 19.
ReplyDeleteSKUL/XCO taking the sting out of MITK.
ReplyDeleteWhat's up with SLV?
ReplyDeleteMITK - Probably needs to close the 1/12th gap up from $8.11 and at least a quick retest of the 200SMA, maybe the 50SMA?
ReplyDeleteJust a theory...
Looks like T3D is on the bid again for MDW.
ReplyDeleteCP- I hope not!!
ReplyDeleteRAS strong. We Fed that up TOF.
ReplyDeleteWhen I grow up I want to be like Jesse.
ReplyDeleteNice spike in silver here on my B-day. :) As a birthday gift to myself, I just sold at $5.55 5 contracts of April $26 calls on SLV which I purchased a few weeks ago at $2.65.
ReplyDeleteI figured that since these calls are so deep in the money, they behave just like SLV itself, which is to say they should be growing much slower than AUMN (with its amazing production guidance I hope it will have a large positive beta on silver as opposed to a large negative one it had in 2011). In other words, since I am still deep in debt, I would rather keep my money in something that will give me the greatest bang for the buck (AUMN, that is).
Today I will have 10 AUMN January $5 calls assigned to me, which I purchased at $2.40 in mid-November. Rather than selling these calls at a gain, I figured I'll just get the shares and hold them for a year. And so, in order to raise cash for holding these shares, I cashed in some of my SLV calls (I still have 3 April $26 calls left, which I'll sell next week if SLV spikes up another few bucks).
Happy birthday David!! Mine is Sunday and plan to celebrate with a 49er win!!
ReplyDeleteThank you, Mark! I hope you get all wins for your B-day!
ReplyDeleteSo I'm currently working in a Starbucks waiting for a shipment to go out of my warehouse and a dude sitting next to me is wearing Skullcandy headphones. I shit you not.
ReplyDeleteMark - We royally effed up with RAS. A 75% gain with a 7% divvy to boot. Damn.
TOF- Tell him to buy another pair!
ReplyDeleteHappy birthday dudes. You guys gonna do 21 shots for your big 21st birthdays!?
ReplyDelete"Golden cross":
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000067420
I honestly think these golden cross / death cross things are contrarian indicators. Pretty much every time there is a death cross I've noticed over the past few years that it marks a bottom. The "golden cross" is coming up...maybe it's time to cash in the chips?
Notice, folks, that after today's spike up, silver has reached the mid-point of its late-November range, while gold is still below the lowest point of its late-November range. When silver is outperforming gold, the game is ON for the PM sector.
ReplyDeleteGet ready @ 1.90 for MDW guys.
ReplyDeletedudes - this SORL is looking really good man. It looks like $3 is in the card for sure. Just need a little more vol
ReplyDeleteBVSN?
ReplyDeleteThere must be something going on with the $12.5 strike price on SKUL...oh yeah it's op ex. duh.
ReplyDeleteMDW - I see $1.75ish no?
Long DTLK at $8.74
ReplyDeleteI'd be shocked if MDW tested 1.75 again. I want to be in @ 1.90 if it will let me.
ReplyDeleteWow, look at SPX go.
ReplyDeleteSold my 1k shs in SKUL at $12.58 that I picked up this morning because it was on margin. Plus we need a camcorder to videotape the little dude.
ReplyDeleteI'm using OPEN as my guide for TZOO...it pulled back to 50% of its gains from late Nov to mid Dec then rallied 32%. I think TZOO does the same. The 50% pullback is right around current prices...a rally to $37 would be 32%. I think it gets there. As such I bought it after hours at $28.3. 450 shs. I'll get the camcorder next week.
ReplyDeleteMark: pretty impressive stuff bro:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.miteksystems.com/resources/case-studies/mercantile-mobile-deposit-case-study
Yeah, I read that a while ago.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2012/01/Top%2030%20SI%20To%20Float_2.jpg
ReplyDeleteWTF. I can name about 8 of those stocks that I have been long at one point over the past few years. Some call it contrarian investing but I think the proper term is POS investing.
TZOO earnings on 1/26...I'd have to imagine shorts will cover into that. That short interest figure can't be right. Over 100% of the float? how is that possible?
ReplyDeletei quit my job today. i still can't read the blog at work and NO JOB is worth that. alright I kid. look at you guys leaning bearish, or correctionist at least.
ReplyDeletehappy birthdays mark and david.
robear " "All in on UNG." Didn't Napoleon say that at Waterloo?"
that's funny
It was a good day for tbt and epm. I think kass even mentioned TBT
I sold short 5 Feb 12 puts on TLM today for $.55 at pretty much the hi of the day for TLM. If TLM drops I'll probably sell another 5 and leave it at that. Mostly based on Tudor's comments which Mark has.
I wanted to sell HES Feb 65 Strike calls against my shares but HES reports on the 25th so I'm thinking there may be more juice in the stock. I was thinking Monday might be down with such a strong option close day so there's the risk.
I was looking for more energy names to buy, mostly as buyout candidates but I couldn't come up with anything. ANd even though I did sell some calls and puts, I didn't want to do a whole lot of that today because volatility has come in sooo much so there's not much premium. This would have been a good day to buy the SPY strangle I think.
u kid abt not being able to read the blog or abt quitting ur job?
ReplyDeleteBAS is getting close.
ReplyDeleteI'm looking at 30 year money right now for 3.750%. Wild.
ReplyDelete