The day-to-day stuff gets old. The real money will be made on sweeping trends. Let me throw out a few possibilities for 2012:
(a) Banks and brokers fly. Sectors that dive -20% in one calendar year have a tendency to recover in the next. XLF/FIDSX/FSLBX, baby.
(b) Eurozone dives into recession. Investors, however, look beyond the valley and bid up large-cap stocks. EZU/FIEUX/FECAX, baby.
(c) Growth in China likewise skids to a figurative stop- but it was likely priced in by the 2011 skid in the Shanghai composite. FXI/CAF/FHKCX, baby.
(d) Long-term bond yields are finally cleared for take-off by the market. TBT, baby.
It doesn't really matter which time frame(s) you play. Just win, baby.
Channeling Al?
ReplyDeleteHappy (day early) Birthday to Mark aka The Hammer! Hope you have a great one. Wouldn't it be something if the 49'ers give you the best b-day present ever?
ReplyDeleteGrab yourself some Assos gear, really the best cold weather gear on the market. I did my first 60 mile ride yesterday on the comeback trail and Assos kept me toasty warm.
Going to see wilco tonight my favorite band. Here is Impossible Germany. Maybe it is a take on the euro debt crisis. watch past 3 min mark to see an exquisite jazzy guitar solo.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZzkxSkGblUc
Happy B-day Mark. Smash Eli!
Nice link, rb. My first experience with Wilco.
ReplyDeleteDavid- Check out 'The Narrows' on NFLX. A great film, one you'll never find on one of CSTR's kiosks.
ReplyDeleteRB - Funny thing you posted about Wilco. They too are one of my favorite bands. My friends are going tomorrow night and offered me a free ticket but I want to be here for my son's bath time. Definitely wouldn't pass that up 3 years ago.
ReplyDeletesomeone being introduced to wilco for the first time should also know that tweedy (lead singer jeff tweedy) is quite the character on stage. many concerts i've been to he's been dead quiet. others he'll go on rants on stage. i saw him at spreckels theatre in san diego about 5 years ago and he was hilarious, a show inside a show.
ReplyDeleteBB- Interesting spot here for MGIC.
ReplyDeleteYeah, thanks Mark, the chart looks like it could be ready to really go. Cloud computing companies are getting hot again and MGIC is one of the most consistently profitable ones in the space.
ReplyDeleteI'm planning on selling if it gets in the $10 - $12 range, but will see how it is trading then.
BB- Yeah, I'm not happy I let that one go so quick. My bad.
ReplyDeleteHappy birthday, Mark! I hope you are having a great day and will have a great year ahead! I hope you'll be proud of yourself at the end of this year, and your family and friends will be proud of you too!
ReplyDelete2nd_ave -- thank you for the recommendation about "The Narrows." Sounds like an artsy movie...
ReplyDeleteOne really nice artsy movie that we recently saw was "Ashes of Time Redux" by Kar Wai Wong, which also won a a whole bunch of awards: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0109688/awards
All movies by Kar Wai Wong are worth watching, but this one stands out in my mind.
In order to make my exploration of Asian cinema more systematic, I found a page with the most prominent Asian directors and their most famous movies:
ReplyDeletehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_Asian_cinema#Prominent_directors
(you need to disable Javascript in your browser to view this page, since wikipedia is currently "on strike").
I typed each of the movies mentioned on that page into IMDB.com, and if that movie also won a few interesting awards, then I added it to my netflix queue.
For those of you who have a preference for European cinema, you can repeat the above exercise with winners of the most prominent awards at the most prominent European film festival (at Cannes):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palme_d%27Or
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Prix_%28Cannes_Festival%29
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Best_Director_Award_%28Cannes_Film_Festival%29
I landed a whole bunch of great movies from the above pages...
Mark -- let these pages be my birthday present for you. :)
wow, field goal kickers, i feel for the guy
ReplyDelete2nd's opening missive from 1/14/2012
ReplyDelete"For those of us who day trade, the hip move is to bet against the crowd. On the other hand, the wisdom of crowds can prove right in the long run. From a non-trading point of view, I think it's clear (a) Europe is headed for a recession, (b) recent growth rates in China are unsustainable, and (c) a global scale-back in living standards is in the cards.
Common sense tells me 1998-2008 just isn't the way life was meant to be. Everyone and their housekeeper driving a new foreign SUV sipping a grande mocha in the morning on their way to a job that allowed them to return home to a newly-remodeled kitchen/bath/den after picking up the kids from private schools. Lunch at the bistro and dinner on the Avenue. All funded by rising salaries and/or stock markets and/or home prices.
No, I think we're headed back to the Seventies. A decade of social unrest, high unemployment/energy prices/inflation, and lowered expectations- which will ultimately lead to improved fiscal management and more fulfilling lives. "
article from cnbc
ReplyDelete"How the US Lost Out on iPhone Work"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/46090589/
I keep wondering how we, the US, are able to keep spending money on stuff? I know I could easily be replaced by someone cheaper and I suspect that most of senior management at my company and several others can be replaced as well. I do worry about what the my kids will face during their working careers but parents have probably been doing that since the beginning of time.
Efeen Giants are the luckiest team in history.
ReplyDeleteSilver producer Minefinders (MFN) getting taken out at a 20% premium at C$15.60 by Pan Am Silver.
ReplyDeleteNot a bad sale, but it had traded up there quite a few times before.
It is one of my nemesis stocks, that I owned for quite a while, it did fine, but I traded it so poorly that I lost money on it.
Good indicator for ECU which has better resources, just not as well developed.
dudes - I think this market could get to 1,450-1,500 before a meaningful pullback...
ReplyDeleteSDOW - LOL, I'm gonna have to lower my buy-stop again this week?
ReplyDeleteXCO off @ 8.37. I'll take the 2 grand.
ReplyDeleteDemark is calling for a pullback at 1338-1342.
ReplyDeleteWe're seeing a bit of that with DANG, but still relatively strong on the S&P.
We've gone pretty far, hard to build a rally on top of a rally, so I remain long but cautious.
i hear ya CC but most traders are looking for a pullback. i think we obviously get a few but nothing more than a few percent. i think the market goes to 1,500 then pulls back to 1,350.
ReplyDeleteI added to my TZOO at $28.82. I think this has room to run this week heading into and past earnings. I think it could run to $40 in the short term.
look at that really looooooooooong base in TZOO over the past 4 months or so...building up strength for another big move higher
ReplyDeletethe weekly chart in TZOO is just starting to turn up now...and best part: the weekly chart is showing a crossover on the MACD thing that I follow which is pretty reliable. it's time to buy this sucker.
ReplyDelete1500 - Maybe a zig-zag pattern...
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDelete