A +2% gap up. The last time this occurred, on December 20 of last year, I was also in cash. What's the right move here? For me, it's probably no move.
(a) I don't like chasing prices, unless I'm playing a short squeeze. Sure, we could be looking at a massive short squeeze, but we don't know that.
(b) I made a decision to cash out in early December, and an opening rally in 2012 won't cause me to second-guess that move. It's uncanny how much the scenario resembles cashing out gains at the cashier's window, only to hear loud cheers erupt at the table you just walked away from. Winning bet, no regrets.
Good to see one going your way, David. I should have taken your suggestion (which probably still stands) to buy into AUMN last week.
jesse's not married, no widow to leave behind. You're right, though. Buying UNG is like betting a tumbling boulder will hit a ledge on its way down and fly upwards for a few seconds.
ReplyDelete2nd - I think it makes sense to be prudent and not chase rallies, but bigger picture today is the first day we broke above the 200 DMA in a while and that is usually a buy signal.
ReplyDeleteSure, I understand and will file today's action in the bullish corner. But I think there will be a better entry at some point. Not to take away from those of you who entered much lower- those dudes are entitled to enjoy this morning's gap up.
ReplyDeleteI think 2nd is wise to wait for confirmation of this move on a pullback. If we close several days above the 200 then pullback, it would be a good sign with defined risk. I still think it will be choppy going through the overhead, but a bull market *should* be able to do that. If it get's weak it isn't a good sign. It also makes it easier to understand.
ReplyDeleteCan't say I enjoyed it as I am up a whopping $1000 today.
ReplyDelete+1000 is better than nada, bro. And much better than -1000.
ReplyDeleteIf this market is strong, then it won't allow for an easy entry point. If that's the case then now is probably the best buy sideliners are gonna get.
ReplyDeleteI didn't say 'easy' entry- no entry is easy. But a better (or as Craig might say, more well-defined) entry is always around the corner. It just doesn't seem that way on days like this.
ReplyDeleteyeah i'm just hypothesizing that any strong market in general allows few easy entries.
ReplyDeleteLOL! Look at a one year chart of the SPY.
ReplyDeleteWe are currently at the exact same level with a lot of overhead resistance to overcome. A lot of those previous buyers will be waiting to exit at break even and there will be selling. That is a certainty. Of course not everyone will be selling but there will be selling and pullbacks, it's just human nature.
Those are the days 2nd will have to get in and from the looks of it, it's SEVEN months of accumulated overhead. The only thing that could make that trip quicker is some extraordinary Fed action or some supernatural resolution of the Euro mess. There would still be traders selling into that strength.
Mick was right. Time is on my side, yes it is.
I'd say the market is doing just that...that is, that might have been the best dip sideliners got.
ReplyDeleteAs such I decided to move some more into PEIX at $1.11 and more into RDN at $2.29.
There are literally hundreds and hundreds of former "high flyers" in every sector coming off of low bases.
ReplyDeleteFSLR, IGPG, DRYS, EXM, CREE, BTU, DANG, PEIX, BAC, AUMN, WFR, GMXR, SSRI, OSG, HSOL, SOL, SMSI, AA, MTL, RDN, CENX, anything oil related......
I've never seen so many longer-term, multi-bagger setups in all my years trading.
Bill O'neil's pants are wet. There are classic IBD setups all over the place.
This is the year we've been unpatiently waiting for since 2006. Astute traders are going to make a BOATLOAD of money this year. There will be no pullback 2nd.
Looks like we are going to see terminal hammers in the natty sector to boot.
I love it TOF- Out w/ the CSTR crap. In w/ the 2012 multi-baggers like PEIX, RDN, BAC etc. Keep up the great work.
Jesse - I love the enthusiasm. Of those above I like PEIX, BAC, RDN and just about every freaking financial I can find. I too haven't seen such nice charts in a while across an entire sector as I have seen basically across the board in the financials. I think you could literally just throw a dart at any one in the sector and make a ton of $$ if the economy continues improving.
ReplyDeleteSpeaking of which, just added some more RDN at $2.23. Now have 20k shs.
Long starter piece BAC at $5.84.
ReplyDeleteNever seen a day with so many positive PMI announcements when most analysts seem to have low expectations for 2012. Implies business is more robust than thought and estimates may be too low.
ReplyDeleteAdded some PEIX at $1.12 and some more BAC at $5.84. Now about 60% long.
ReplyDeleteNLS coming alive. Another one highly leveraged to an improving economy.
ReplyDeleteSVM - The double bottom reaction high of $10 in late October, added to the difference between reaction low and high of $6, provides a potential upside target of $16...
ReplyDelete"There will be no pullback 2nd".
ReplyDeleteWTF? Are we traders or psychics?
There is NO WAY to know what the markets will do.
No one knows, NO ONE.
It's nice you guys are so enthusiastic, but let's keep it realistic. We could just as easily reverse below the 200 tomorrow. This is the January affect, lots of fund managers putting $ to work (me too) but let's be somewhat sane in our discussion. Such bullish sentiment usually ends as sucker talk.
There is ALWAYS pullbacks. There is always profit taking. That's what healthy markets do.
I seem to remember a lot of people saying the same thing in early 2009. Yes, the market trended higher, but there were stops along the way and there will be again.
Hey! I was just looking at CSTR!!
ReplyDeleteJeez CC always the debbie downer...just when i was dreaming of my first yacht you got to go and get all realistic on us.
ReplyDeleteGreat stat from Jeffrey Saut at Raymond James this week:
ReplyDelete"Indeed, of the 45 economic indicators I track only three are not showing stronger growth readings."
http://www.raymondjames.com/inv_strat.htm
CC, could see this being a gap and go start to the year, with pullbacks kept small (1% - 2%) making it hard to find good entries.
TOF-
ReplyDeleteCheck out IGPG weekly on the 5 year chart. The chart tells me it heads straight back up to 50 in short order. I know nothing about it. Probably a good thing if I decide to trade it.
Look at the bright side, if you were all slack jawed on junk or gambling I'd try to talk you off that cliff too.
ReplyDeleteYou guys will do what you do, but you have to think of 2nd. "There will be no pullbacks"?
You may as well be telling him the first one is free man.
There WILL be other trains arriving in the station, that's a good thing....and it's yacht material.
jesse - u have that symbol right?
ReplyDeleteI know, I know....Added MITK @ 7.01/7.00
ReplyDeleteGuys, there are THOUSANDS of equities.
ReplyDeleteThere is sector rotation. There are world events. Shit happens.
That is a certainty. Even 2-3% indices pullbacks are perfectly good entries.
I'm just looking at PEIX now. I think it goes to at least $6. Right now it's at 1.11. What's the rush? It will likely be a 5-6 bagger if it does.
RDN? The fricking MA's haven't even crossed up yet. There is plenty of time to be right.
Looking good though!
How about David's move today? 14% plus on aumn! Good on David! But you know what? GLD is at 156 and it dropped from 185. That's a lot of room.
I think David makes a lot more if gold keeps going.
Want a yacht? ME TOO! I'm going to have one. (A smallish one). Don't try to catch knives, trade a trend higher when it becomes one.
Print money!
CC - I agree that PEIX gets to $6+...that's why I'm long it. why not rush? I'd rather buy at $1.1 than $1.5. allows me to get my yacht sooner...
ReplyDeleteRDN - Check at the crossover in MACD on the weekly chart. Sucker is poised to sprint higher on continued good housing news.
The other good thing about both PEIX + RDN: insider buying.
ReplyDeleteWhy? Without any emotion, look at today's price bar. Flat. It opened at 1.11 and closed at 1.11.
ReplyDeleteI'm not impressed.
I'd be much happier (and interested) even if it broke that latest red bar above 1.29 with an early entry at 1.30. Front running the trend doesn't give me an edge on risk. It could as easily fall to the 50 dma. I REALLY want a yacht.
That's just how I roll. To each his own.
Illustration?
KOG. Pulled back off a persistent trend, entered above the last red bar around 9.10 (I did front run it as the trend was VERY persistent). So far so good. Stop at break even and I sleep at night while working on Belize.
APKT halted. News.
ReplyDeleteCC - I've seen lots of charts like PEIX over the years...there's nothing scientific to it...just buy after the euphoria has subsided and it is in the process of consolidating gains on lower volume. Any entry should work because 9 times out of 10 it has another move higher in it. Only elements it needs are:
ReplyDelete(1) Big move up on high vol after long down trend.
(2) Sharp pullback on lower volume
(3) sideways trading on lower trending volume still.
(4) Break higher out of the sideways trading.
REDF was the classic example of this kind of setup.
Mark - Nice move sticking with MITK. It actually ended ok considering how crappy it traded earlier. With my luck of late I bet they announce a mobile bill pay partner tomorrow.
ReplyDelete$APKT Guides EPS $0.26-0.28 vs $0.37 Est, Revenue $84-86M vs $93.4M Est
ReplyDeleteMy take? Yuck.
Craig is right, guys. I know colleagues who made it big in the '82-2000 bull run- and didn't open a trading account until '97. There's always time. I just don't like the sentiment right now. And I can afford to be patient.
ReplyDeleteTOF- Yeah, well see. I did like close. I'll be trading the shares here.
ReplyDeletewhat's not to like about the sentiment right now? i've somehow managed to listen to CNBC the majority of the day to get a sense of sentiment and i would say there are far more skeptics than bulls.
ReplyDelete2nd - my take: buying financials and companies like PEIX right here isn't exactly rushing in after seeing 90% or so drops in those stocks.
ReplyDeleteAUMN is in the same camp...
ReplyDeleteI agree with TOF. Very few calling for a big up year and most buying into current rally.
ReplyDeleteBloomberg reporting "Forecasters at securities firms are more conservative on U.S. stocks than any time in seven years, predicting the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will rise 6.4 percent in 2012 as budget deficits around the world limit gains."
Short term sentiment may be getting overbought, but longer term still looks good for buys here.
WMB - Wow and ouch, wonder what happened to this one?
ReplyDeleteWMB is now WMB and WPX
ReplyDeletehttp://www.fool.com/investing/general/2012/01/03/williams-cos-shares-plunged-sort-of-what-you-need.aspx
"What: Shares of Williams Cos. (NYSE: WMB ) may be lower than some investors expected this morning, falling more than 18% from Friday's close -- but never fear, you were left some shares in WPX Energy (NYSE: WPX ) for your troubles.
So what: For every three shares of Williams you owned on Friday, you should now own one share of WPX Energy. The drop in Williams shares account for almost exactly the value of the new shares, so overall shareholder value hasn't gone up or down much at all today.
Now what: Depending on what quote you looked at this morning, you may have been a little surprised at Williams' share price. After the separation, the two companies will split their focus to pipelines and infrastructure at Williams and exploration and production at WPX. If you own shares, it may be time to start considering whether you still want to own one or both of these businesses now that they're separate."
We should see something similar at COP soon. I don't follow COP but I talk to a couple of peeps over there.
ReplyDeleteI don't think Rick Perry can read.
ReplyDeleteYacht? Did you guys say Yacht? Hell I'm looking for my first MOH-BILE home. Every Bullheadean's dream. Go Stamp .com and Simo! Who called the gap up?
ReplyDeletePort- I hear the same thing about COP and even...yes...XOM. I just don't really see a play. To many moving parts. That's up to the arb boys to figure out.
ReplyDeletefrom what i've heard, the management is having a hard time trying to figure out which assets to put on the new company on COP, I think it was easier to split WMB
ReplyDeletePhysical natural gas at the Hub for tomorrow traded below $3.00, I think we marked the bal mo around $2.93 for the balance of Jan. natty is cheap cheap cheap.
you oil and gas guys must have some input on PEIX no? i'm tempted to take a bigger stake in the company because the upside could be pretty big. govt mandated 10% biofuels is expected to grow as time goes own...even a move to 15% means a 50% increase in the total market and that would have an even bigger impact on their business as they have a lot of fixed overhead costs.
ReplyDeleteplus, brazil and canada are importing ethanol. it seems to me that with brazil/canada importing significant amts of ethanol now and with jacked up oil prices, the ethanol play might be a good one here.
I'm trying to figure out my one day gain. I sold everythng and went to cash just so I can say I'm positive for the year.
ReplyDeleteOk, not true. I did think about it for a min though. Peeps like me will be reinforcing that upper resistance on the SPY though.
Sold my 1 remaining CF Feb 135 call at $19.70. I didn't even look at my accounts over the weekend and I forgot I had a GTC sell order out there on my call that should have triggered around $149 ish on the stock. CF traded up to $154 and the call traded as hi as $21.80 which is the last bid of the day. Oh well, I made about a 46% return on these 3 calls, still way way under on the CF trades for the last 6 weeks. All out of it now but I may buy back in WITH STOPS on pullbacks.
after reading what I just posted, I'm just assuming that the volatility came in today because the CF calls didn't pop so much assuming I had my call order out at $149 equivalent. Its late and I'm tired.
ReplyDeleteTEAM - I'm just a financial natty guy but I have 3 great peeps sitting next to me that read just about everything so I'll ask and I'll see what Tudor has to say. Today my coworker peeps were slaming Total for giving CHK money. Just like the market though, Total really doesn't care what they or I think.
later
thanks port...interested in getting their take.
ReplyDeleteinteresting related articles i came across:
http://www.brecorder.com/agriculture-a-allied/single/624/183/1138834/
http://brownfieldagnews.com/2011/12/21/ethanol-industry-still-working-on-e15/
http://www.agweb.com/article/agday_daily_recap_-_december_29_2011/
ReplyDeleteFrom this article:
"Meanwhile, EPA released the levels of biofuels that must be used in 2012 to keep in compliance with the Renewable Fuels Standard, also known as RFS-2. RFS-2 is part of the 2007 energy bill which sets renewable fuel volume targets. It increases each year until reaching a mandated level of 36-billion gallons by the year 2022. Right now, it's about 14 billion gallons. In 2012, it adds about another one billion gallons of renewable fuels, which includes bio-diesel and cellulosic biofuels."
If that is the case then the ethanol industry should expand at a 9.2% Annual rate to reach 36 billion gallons in 2022.
2nd_ave, if you don't want to chase the gap up in S&P, then take a look at the charts of SVM and AUMN -- don't we have today a bona fide upside breakout after a consolidation pattern that took place since December 15? Even though today's move in SVM or AUMN seems large, it is just a blip on a 1-year radar. Gold is up y-o-y, silver is flat. So it makes total sense for the miners to come back at least to where they were trading a year ago. A year ago AUMN was trading at $28... Since then, AUMN got its hands onto a producing mine in Velardena and they are planning to produce from it by the end of 2012 twice the AgEq oz that ECU was producing...
ReplyDeleteAfter a relentless rally that started in late July, it looks like the TED spread has finally topped:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=.TEDSP:IND
I think this is significant, as it implies that the European troubles are not getting progressively worse anymore.
TOF-
ReplyDeleteLOL- You are right!
The symbol is IPGP (photonics). Pull up the 5 or 10 year weekly. Just retraced all the way back to its breakout from a year ago.
Its one of those plays where the chart says its "go time" but the insider selling distorts my judgment. Having said that, the chart almost always wins.
Wow- I just got an email from literally the best trader I've ever traded with (we used to trade w/ Revshark and Dan Zanger in the '03-'05 timeframe). This guy had multi-thousand % returns like the rest of the group. I haven't heard from him in a LONG time. This was his response to my annual market forecast:
ReplyDeleteOn the market:
"The federal reserve through the assistance of wall street manipulated its movement almost daily.. Large sell offs were not permitted and more importantly futures were manipulated nightly to insure they did not plummet.. Lastly the US stock market is broken, no one trusts it anymore and they shouldn’t, the exchanges sell out to the highest bidder and allow them to front run just about every investor who doesn’t have a server 5 feet away from the exchanges… I want nothing to do with it anymore. They have effectively driven just about everyone out of the market and its nothing more than a desert with a big mound of tumble weed floating around aimlessly.
And as for real-estate bottoming , if rates head higher then real-estate gonna puke like it just now stuck its finger in its throat.. Riddle me this if real estate has yet to start its engine with rates at 4% how is it going to at 5%?
It’s like our soul was sold to the devil and the counterbalances are like something we have never seen before."
The sentiment among the pros is pretty low my friends. Like real estate agents, I think that a large percentage of professional traders have been thrown out of the game over the past 5 years. As a contrarian, that's exactly what I like to see. Having said that, I know he'll be back in the game as soon as the momo setups return which looks to be the case going forward from my perspective.
thats the kind of sentiment im talking about jesse. people say traders/investors are too bullish? yeaaaaah right. the minute we get a minor selloff its "we're going back to march 2009 lows". everyone is a closet bear.
ReplyDeleteagain, look at what has been thrown at the market since jan 2010 yet somehow we're higher by a good amt. pretty soon people are going to throw in the bear towel.
as for ipgp - same chart as tzoo and open in my mind except it hasnt found its bottom. id rather open or tzoo
CC-
ReplyDelete"There will be no pullback 2nd".
WTF? Are we traders or psychics?
There is NO WAY to know what the markets will do.
No one knows, NO ONE."
I apologize for coming across brash and cocky at times. I mean no offense to 2nd or anyone else. When I first started trading with Sharkinvestors years ago, I was shocked by how brash, cocky, certain, confident, and oftentimes disrespectful the best traders in the group were. It took me a long time to come to terms with the way they acted.
Over time, I have learned (the hard way) that my trading returns are 110% related to my psychology and more specifically my level of confidence. Back in September, I posted here about my trading returns during and after my long term relationships. Like many others, I tend to get sucked in by routine, monotony, and for lack of a better word- boredom during my long term relationships. The result being a general decline in confidence in my life and specifically a lack of confidence in my trading. I have broken down my returns during my peak periods of confidence (outside of relationships) vs. when I'm less so. The results are simply staggering. Returns in the 1,000's of percents vs. a long term loss in EVERY relationship (over 6 months) I've had since 1998.
This is not the place to discuss marriage or relationships. In my opinion, they are great for just about everything in life outside of trading (for me at least). I've learned through trial and error (THE HARD WAY) that I need to be brash, super-optimistic, and ultra-confident in my trading to be successful versus the thousands of other traders trying to take my money. Anything less than this peak mental state, and I lose money. If I get into a position, in order to hold it through thick and thin, I have to KNOW deep inside that it will go through the roof. If I don't have that conviction, I get shaken out time and time again. From this board, the biggest trades of 2011 came from Mark and TOF who had utmost conviction and confidence that their trades would end up being BIG BIG winners. TOF had the same conviction w/ that red box of shit. But you HAVE to have that mentality with every position you enter. David is the same way. This will be the year in which his superior conviction pays off.
So...I may make some outlandish predictions and sound cocky and confident at times. I do not in any way want to come across as being disrespectful to anyone here. If I have, I apologize. It was never my intent. Over the past 4 months, I have put a lot of thought into my psychological trading state. The only way I'm going to survive in this business over the long term is to be as confident in my trading as is humanly possible.
Having said all that, the specific reasoning why I think this year is different is all laid out in my 2012 forecast. From my perspective, one cannot understand the outlook until you look at the charts which unfortunately, I was unable to post on the blog. I can certainly send them in email format should anyone want to see them.
Here's to an excellent 2012 for all of us. And at some point along the way, there's no doubt in my mind that 2nd will get his "gift pullback" :)
Cheers
SDOW - I still have my stop-Limit bid in at $26.70
ReplyDeleteThe dollar has been moving up, was 80.44 a minute ago
Okay, so we only just experienced a one day pop, huh?
ReplyDeletepicked up more peix at the open at 1.08. the more i read about ethanol the more i think its the way out of our energy dependence.
ReplyDeleteadded more rdn at 2.32
ReplyDeletealright took big position in peix...theres no flippin way this trade is over with oil ratcheting higher.
ReplyDeleteStopped myself out of BAC and RDN at $5.66 and $2.295 avg..trying to see where i can find better entries on those and gonna focus on my PEIX position.
ReplyDeleteI still like that red box POS :)
ReplyDeleteJesse- You didn't offend anyone.
Yeah I still like CSTR too...but it's a traders stock and really nothing more. buy it at $40, sell it at $48.
ReplyDeleteEverything you ever wanted from all of the so called "gurus" out there:
http://pragcap.com/the-ultimate-2012-investment-predictions-outlooks-list
TOF,
ReplyDeletehave you looked into this cutting of the Ethanol subsidy and, more importantly, the dropping of the ethanol tariff?
I'm not knowledgeable enough to give an opinion, but seems would decrease demand and increase competition. Perhaps this is baked into the stocks already.
GMO appoints new COO.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the link TOF. Have to take a read through some of these.
ReplyDeleteJessee, hope you don't have a current girlfriend reading this Blog!
ReplyDeleteIt really is interesting that a really good mo-mo trader is playing "the market is rigged card". To me, it means that most of these guys have been shaken out, so sets up for some good trading now.
The only thing I wonder is if the machines have made this type of trading obsolete. If a person is following a defined strategy, a computer can execute that same strategy a million times faster.
"have you looked into this cutting of the Ethanol subsidy and, more importantly, the dropping of the ethanol tariff?"
ReplyDeleteYep I definitely have. Offsetting this is the fact that there are government mandates that biofuels make up 10% of our oil supplies and this amount is going to 15% soon. The real truth is in the price of ethanol and ethanol stocks...surely they were supposed to collapse on this news. That speaks volumes.
From what I'm reading there is basically a worldwide boom going on in Ethanol as a result of countries being fed up with being held hostage to oil prices. While ethanol is perhaps not a really long term solution and while oil is still not going away any time soon, there has been a slow and steady move going on for the past few years toward ethanol from most developed and emerging countries.
Jesse- Do you know anything about QIHU?
ReplyDeletemark - steer clear of those china issues...read up on VIE's when you get a chance. basically shareholders have no real stake in the company...ownership resides offshore in cayman entities so when you're buying stock you're not really buying anything more than a sheet of paper with these things.
ReplyDeleteI added some PEIX at $1.076
Picked up FSLR down 6% here.
ReplyDeletePicked up EXM 1.56
ReplyDeleteHad to exit 50% of UNG to pick these up. Seeing lots of good looking stuff on today's pullback.
Well guys, in my business, confidence isn't something you talk yourself into. You either are, or you aren't and the rest of the natural world knows it. Jessie's girlfriends know it.
ReplyDeleteWe tend to think everything is verbal, but almost everything is actually physical. We don't see it here because we are not seeing one another. If we were all in one room there would be no hiding who is really confident and who isn't. Our bodies would give us away.
Don't get me wrong, I am not insulted in the least with Jesse's prediction, but when I read it, I know it's a prediction. It isn't reality. It's good to have some fortitude, but for me it has to be defined. As you know by now, I trade a methodology and for the most part I stick to it. I define my upside and I define my risk. I'm good with one to one, but if I can stack the deck I'll take that trade every time. I don't make predictions but I'm willing to hold positions that go against me as long as they are within my defined risk, with perhaps a bit of discretion at times.
Speed is not a consideration. My method doesn't require speed or picking bottoms or tops. I don't buy low and sell high, I buy trends, define the upside and the downside based on historical volatility, and in doing so define risk VS benefit. I don't compete against computers because my intention is to take a short term position (about the only prediction that is somewhat useful) ride it to a price target determined by historic volatility, take half profits, reduce risk to zero and hold for the long haul. So the difference between us is how we determine entries.
The reason professionals (take notice of that word) are cautious is because the market isn't giving them defined risk, so they wait. Waiting isn't out, it's waiting. Waiting IS a position.
Most professionals trade THEIR system and that is largely defined by risk. They are not gamblers. They don't take on oversized positions. If you are getting 1000's of percent returns, you are either in an awesome trending market, or you are taking on a lot of risk.
If you can handle big losses, more power to you.
I don't take that kind of risk as I'm not of an age to do so. If I were 30 years younger, great, but to me risk is real. I'm not gambling, I'm trading.
I know there will be big moves up and there will be big moves down and I use a system that is designed to factor in those moves to my advantage.
However, you will not hear any predictions from me. I am confident in my methodology, but not in the markets or in certain positions. As Peter Brandt has been saying lately, "Strong opinions, weakly held". The methodology takes care of that for me so I can remain confident and maintain my resolve when positions and markets move against me.
Jessie is right, it's mainly a psychological battle. You go into battle with a strategy and tactics whether it is a fundamental story or a technical system. For some here it is the former and for me it's the latter.
Picked up IPGP 35.48
ReplyDeleteMark-
ReplyDeleteI've never seen QIHU. Chart not looking too great. Looks like it could snap back should money continue to flow into China stocks. Let me know if you find anything of interest about it.
Bought some more PEIX at $1.085 avg.
ReplyDeletePosition size is big so I'm done for now. Might hop into FAS instead of individual financials.
Picked up DANG 4.79.
ReplyDeleteDANG, YOKU, RENN and some other China stocks look ripe.
As I recall, DANG was a fave here around 25. Anybody have a bullish view of it from a fundy standpoint. The chart looks very bullish.
Also, SMSI chart looks similar to PEIX when I was buying at .30 in October. PEIX has much much better fundys, but worth a look nonetheless....
grrr- Was just about to put some funds in TBSI as a shipping play. Up 50% on the day:(
ReplyDeleteSMSI came up on my screener the other day...I have no idea what the deal is with it.
ReplyDeleteBought some FAS at $67.28
Sold FSLR on the 2% pop and rolling funds into DANG. I LOVE the chart.
ReplyDeleteKnow next to nothing about the company which is good for me.
Possible monster chart pattern, past momo status, and frequent 20-40 million share weeks.
Market cap $381 million. Cash $245 million.
After all the research I've done the past 5 days, this is now my pick for Q1 2012.
-Estimated revenue growth of 50% in 2012 to $800 million.
ReplyDelete-Launched e-book platform in China on Dec. 21.
-and I totally forgot that it is Stephen Stewart's "Junk Off the Bottom" pick heading into 2012.
Chart #2:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID4371160&cmd=show[s251772487]&disp=O
Iowa - I bet those guys will vote for whomever is most likely to grant Federal agricultural subsidies, and that's probably not Ron Paul.
ReplyDeleteThank you for the Stephen Stewart site Jessie.
ReplyDeleteThe charts at the bottom of the page illustrate moving average cross overs (bowties) that I use.
I also am paying attention to the TED spread and LIBOR charts.
His intro is EXACTLY how I see it and trade it:
"Public ChartList
Picture of Power ^^^ - Momentum Investing - Map Syntax
Stephen Stewart
***Trade what you see, not what you think***. Train the Eye. Optimize the 'sweet spot' of price action.
Three keys to becoming a successful equity trader/investor:
1. Trading System / Your Edge (surprisingly, the least important)
2. Money Management (Timing the Entry, Position Size, Booking Gains, Cutting Losses)
3. Trading State Management - A Thinking System
Identify & Optimize the Best 'MOMENTUM' Trade w/ 'MAP SYNTAX' principles.
'Rules of Engagement' - Know when to enter, when to stay put and when to close the trade.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
*************************************************************
'MAP SYNTAX', is a 'Performance Driven' Discretionary (vs. Black Box) proprietary research effort that focuses on finding the
best stocks the market has to offer. Using multiple time frames, 'MAP SYNTAX' is designed to identify the best candidates for
both long term price momentum investing and short term price 'thrusts' for swing trading. Optimize the 'Sweet Spot'.
All charts are strictly for illustrative purposes.No investment decisions should be made based on the analysis here.
WARNING: Momentum investing can lead to large losses. Very important to have a sound money management strategy."
For his "junk off the bottom" trade I would simply apply the same technicals he does to the weekly SPY chart he shows. IE: when the MA's cross. That would be the transitional pattern.
Iowa - They would also vote for a candidate that supports renewal fuel mandates.
ReplyDelete"GMO appoints new COO."
ReplyDeleteI'm guessing the new hire wasn't a representative of the farmer/ranchers standing in opposition to the project.
David - This article explains why the debt isn't a problem, do you think this means we won't be suffering the slings and arrows that come with massive budgetary cuts?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/02/opinio...
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